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DOE OSTI2021

Insights from NREL’s Electrification Futures and LA100 Studies

Electrification of end-use technologies could have important implications for bulk power sector planning, operations, and impacts. By combining previously-defined electrification scenarios with capacity expansion modeling, we evaluate the potential challenges and opportunities associated with electrification. Our scenario analysis reveals that electrification reduces energy consumption and air emissions from across the energy sector, and its impacts on energy system costs are modest due, in part, to the abundance of low-cost resources in the United States.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

DOE OSTI2020

CHARACTERIZATION ON ANISOTROPIC THERMAL CONDUCTIVITY FOR BIG AREA ADDITIVE MANUFACTURING WITH POLYMERS

Additive manufacturing with polymers has been used mainly for prototyping. A recent development of Big Area Additive Manufacturing (BAAM) at Oak Ridge National Laboratory has opened its applications in the mold and die industry. A numerical simulation and prediction for a mold heating performance requires accurate anisotropic thermal properties of the printed material, which are challenging to obtain, and often requires the use of multiple techniques. The transient plane source (TPS) technique has been widely used due to its ability to measure the thermal properties of an extensive range of materials (solids, liquids, powder). Despite the capability to characterize thermal conductivity k of isotropic and anisotropic materials, the measurements of latter materials are limited to the cases, where the samples have the same thermal conductivity k along x- and y-axis that form the radial plane. In this work, the method for a characterization of k in all three dimensions is developed, and the application of TPS is extended to the determination of thermal properties along the x-, y-, and z-axis individually. The materials are represented by additively manufactured polymers including polylactic acid (PLA) and styrene maleic anhydride (SMA). The developed method consists of (1) a determination of the heat capacity of the polymers by means of TPS in combination with the developed in this work data analysis procedure, (2) a machining three types of cylindrical samples from the same material, with the height corresponding either to x-, y-, or z-direction of printing, and (3) a determination of axial thermal conductivity employing anisotropic model and using previously determined heat capacity

Trofimov, Artem↗

DOE OSTI2025

RE-INTEGRATE EMT Simulation Software: Graph Convolutional Network for Sparse Matrix Pattern Detection

The increasing complexity of power networks, driven by proliferation of inverters, presents analytical challenges that simplified models often fail to capture, necessitating Electromagnetic Transient (EMT) simulations. EMT models are represented as discretized differential-algebraic equations (DAEs), forming a linear system Ax = b that is computationally intensive to solve. Due to inherent sparsity of adjacency matrix A, distinct patterns emerge that, when accurately identified, enable efficient solver selection to minimize computation time. However, identifying ideal pattern is complicated by numerous reordering algorithms and limited structural insights. To address this, we introduce a Graph Convolutional Network (GCN) model for classifying sparse matrix patterns common in power system analysis. The model, achieving 96% test accuracy, is validated using PV plant models of 125 MW capacities connected to New England 39-bus transmission system (TS), and further scaled to a 4,992-bus network with 384 PV plants, yielding 191, 616 × 191, 616 sized A matrix. For all cases, the GCN model accurately identifies the matrix’s intrinsic sparse pattern, demonstrating its potential to enhance solver performance in EMT analysis.

Hossain, Md Rifat [Florida International Universit↗

DOE OSTI2023

Representing the Future Role of Hydropower and Pumped Storage Hydropower (PSH) in Electricity Planning Tools

Existing tools for long-term electric sector planning struggle to represent hydropower's nuanced site-specific technical and operating characteristics, which depend on technical specifications as well as water management practices and regulations. As a result, long-term planning models and tools insufficiently characterize hydropower value and incentives, and they cannot fully represent the role hydropower can play in a future electricity system that could include a high penetration of variable wind and solar generation, battery storage, and other low-carbon technologies. This presentation demonstrates the culmination of a multi-year effort to enhance hydropower representations in electricity planning models at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), as part of the U.S. Department of Energy (USDOE) HydroWIRES Initiative. New modeling techniques are demonstrated using the NREL Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS), an open-access electric sector capacity expansion model used extensively in a wide range of technology deployment and integration analysis, including the 2016 USDOE Hydropower Vision. ReEDS uses a least-cost optimization approach to understand investment and operation of electricity generation, storage, and transmission technologies under future scenarios of electricity technology innovation, demand, policy, and other sectoral drivers. ReEDS was modified to better represent value and opportunities for both pumped storage hydropower (PSH) and hydropower systems without pumping. We incorporated a new national closed-loop PSH resource and cost assessment to explore new PSH deployment opportunities and added plant-level data to better represent the existing PSH fleet. New upgrade pathways enable opportunities for enhanced hydropower flexibility by adding pumps, upgrading dispatchability, increasing capacity, or increasing energy availability. The model was also modified to better represent the value of long-duration energy storage beyond diurnal time scales, allowing both hydropower and PSH to better balance energy supply and demand variations in high-renewable systems. These new features are demonstrated under reference and high-renewable futures and a range of sensitivity scenarios to understand which hydropower and PSH deployment and upgrade opportunities are the most attractive. These scenarios indicate potential for new closed-loop PSH deployment and for hydropower flexibility improvements to have important impacts on long-term electricity system emissions and economic outcomes. Increasing flexibility of the existing hydropower fleet can reduce the need to invest in new flexible grid technologies and help achieve decarbonization goals. Systems with sufficient energy storage could also be valuable for balancing seasonal differences in renewable energy availability, particularly from solar energy. The methods developed for ReEDS and subsequent scenario results reveal important considerations for future hydropower and grid system planning, and all data and code is freely available in a public code repository for use throughout the hydropower industry.

capacity expansion↗

DOE OSTI2021

Electrification Futures Study: Scenarios of Power System Evolution

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Resource Analysis of NP Kunta Solar Park Site (White Paper)

India has set a target of 175 GW of renewable energy (RE) capacity by 2022 and 450 GW by 2030. Flexibility is key for efficient integration of renewables. The modern-day RE plants are grid-friendly and can also provide this flexibility. A pilot to demonstrate this flexibility by implementing automatic generation control (AGC) at a solar plant is being done by the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) under USAID’s Greening the Grid (GTG) Program and Renewable Integration & Sustainable Energy (RISE) initiative. This paper presents the resource variability analysis of the 250-MW NP Kunta solar plant site where the AGC pilot project is being implemented. This paper also demonstrates the use of publicly available resource quality data, which can be utilized by various stakeholders to better understand the variability of any existing or potential RE site in India and possibly increase confidence in decisions or help to understand the impacts that can be expected.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Linking soil phosphorus with forest litterfall resistance and resilience to cyclone disturbance: A pantropical meta-analysis

While tropical cyclone regimes are shifting with climate change, the mechanisms underpinning the resistance (ability to withstand disturbance-induced change) and resilience (capacity to return to pre-disturbance reference) of tropical forest litterfall to cyclones remain largely unexplored pantropically. Single-site studies in Australia and Hawaii suggest that litterfall on low-phosphorus (P) soils is more resistant and less resilient to cyclones. Here, we conducted a meta-analysis to investigate the pantropical importance of total soil P in mediating forest litterfall resistance and resilience to 22 tropical cyclones. We evaluated cyclone-induced and post-cyclone litterfall mass (g/m 2 /day), and P and nitrogen (N) fluxes (mg/m 2 /day) and concentrations (mg/g), all indicators of ecosystem function and essential for nutrient cycling. Across 73 case studies in Australia, Guadeloupe, Hawaii, Mexico, Puerto Rico, and Taiwan, total litterfall mass flux increased from ~2.5 ± 0.3 to 22.5 ± 3 g/m 2 /day due to cyclones, with large variation among studies. Litterfall P and N fluxes post-cyclone represented ~5% and 10% of the average annual fluxes, respectively. Post-cyclone leaf litterfall N and P concentrations were 21.6 ± 1.2% and 58.6 ± 2.3% higher than pre-cyclone means. Mixed-effects models determined that soil P negatively moderated the pantropical litterfall resistance to cyclones, with a 100 mg P/kg increase in soil P corresponding to a 32% to 38% decrease in resistance. Based on 33% of the resistance case studies, total litterfall mass flux reached pre-disturbance levels within one-year post-disturbance. A GAMM indicated that soil P, gale wind duration and time post-cyclone jointly moderate the short-term resilience of total litterfall, with the nature of the relationship between resilience and soil P contingent on time and wind duration. Across pantropical forests observed to date, our results indicate that litterfall resistance and resilience in the face of intensifying cyclones will be partially determined by total soil P.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Production of Fischer-Tropsch Synfuels at Nuclear Plants

A case study analysis was performed to evaluate nuclear-powered synthetic fuel production in the midwestern United States (U.S.). A Fischer-Tropsch (FT) fuel synthesis plant design was used as the basis for the analysis. The FT plant design was configured to produce a product slate consisting of diesel fuel, jet fuel, and motor gasoline blend stocks from carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and hydrogen (H 2 ) feedstocks. The CO 2 feedstock for the FT plant was assumed to be sourced from biorefineries in the region around a Midwest light water reactor (LWR) nuclear power plant (NPP). The analysis specifies that power from the LWR is used to produce H 2 via high-temperature steam electrolysis and to operate the FT synfuel production plant. Capital costs were estimated for the FT plant while capital costs for the electrolysis plant were based on previous Idaho National Laboratory (INL) studies. In addition to labor and maintenance costs for the FT and electrolysis plants, operating costs also include the costs for CO 2 feedstock transport. An analysis was performed to determine the cost of transporting CO 2 from the distributed biorefinery sources to the centralized fuel synthesis plant as a function of the synfuel plant capacity and corresponding CO 2 demand. The primary revenue streams are associated with sales of the synthetic fuel products. The synthetic fuel products will likely follow the same market trends as the conventional fuel products. The synfuel price data was thus based on projections made by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) 2021 Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) for conventional fuel products minus federal and state taxes, as well as marketing and distribution costs. The economic analysis also considered cases that included and excluded revenues from the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) clean hydrogen production tax credit (PTC) of $\$ $3.00/kg for the first ten years of operation. The economic analysis calculated the net present value (NPV) for cases involving steady-state synfuel production for comparison with the NPV for a business-as-usual case in which NPP continues to sell only electric power to the grid. A synfuel production “Reference Case” was considered in addition to sensitivity cases in which the plant capacity, electricity price, and synthetic fuel product prices were perturbed. The synfuel production Reference Case considered a scenario in which the electrolysis and synfuel plants utilized a combined electrical load of 1000 megawatt electrical (MWe) from the LWR with the balance of the LWR power output being sold to the electric grid. The economic analysis suggests that the synfuel production Reference Case evaluated in this analysis would lead to considerable economic potential for near-term deployment of a nuclear-based synfuel production plant. Specifically, the economic analysis suggests that the deployment of a 1000 megawatt (MW) nuclear-powered synfuel plant could result in a NPV increase of approximately $\$ $1.7 billion for a case with no clean synfuel price premium relative to conventional petroleum fuels when accounting for the additional revenues from the 2022 IRA clean hydrogen PTCs of $\$ $3/kg. Sensitivity analysis was performed to evaluate the effect of perturbation of selected model input parameters on the NPV for the synfuel production Reference Case. The sensitivity analysis indicates that the plant capacity has the largest impact on the differential NPV, with a smaller synfuel production capacity resulting in a decrease in revenue when a larger fraction of the power from the NPP is sold to the grid and a smaller fraction of the power is used to produce synthetic fuel products. The synfuel product pricing has the next largest impact on the differential NPV, with lower synfuel prices resulting in decreased NPV from decreased synfuel sales revenue while higher synfuel prices result in increased NPV from increased synfuel sales revenue. Electricity pricing has a smaller effect on the NPV than the fuel sales price since, in the Reference Case, most of the energy from the NPP is used for synfuel production and a smaller amount of the system revenues are associated with electrical power sales. However, the electricity price sensitivity does indicate that the Synfuel Integrated Energy System (IES) would have a greater NPV than the business-as-usual case (e.g., grid power sales only) when electricity market prices are low, suggesting that synfuel production could provide a strategy for decreasing the economic risks to NPPs posed by a loss of revenues attributed to falling electricity market prices.

10 SYNTHETIC FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Transportation and Systems Analysis Collaborations in Support of a Federal Consolidated Interim Storage Facility

The U.S. Department of Energy’s Integrated Waste Management (IWM) program under the Office of Nuclear Energy is planning for the future transportation, storage, and eventual disposal of spent nuclear fuel (SNF) and high-level radioactive waste (HLW) from nuclear power plant sites across the United States. To better enable informed decision-making regarding the back end of the nuclear fuel cycle, the IWM program has been sponsoring the development and application of system analysis tools capable of analyzing various options for managing SNF and HLW. With these tools, integrated waste management system (IWMS) architecture analyses are being conducted to support the future deployment of a comprehensive nuclear waste management system that considers all major back-end aspects of the nuclear fuel cycle (i.e., transportation, storage, and disposal). System analyses and assessments typically use these modeling and simulation tools to investigate implications of changes in various assumptions and parameters such as acceptance rates, receipt logic, facility capacities and capabilities, use of standardized canisters, start and stop dates of facilities, etc. The Next Generation System Analysis Model (NGSAM) is an agent-based simulation toolkit that is used for a system-level simulation and analysis focused on SNF management in the United States. An analyst using NGSAM has the ability to define several factors like the number of storage facilities, capacity at each facility, transportation schedules, shipment rates, and other conditions. NGSAM’s primary purpose is to provide a system analyst with capabilities to model the IWMS and gain insights into SNF and HLW management alternatives including the impact of system choices, associated cost estimates, and development of integrated yet flexible approaches. IWM is also developing the Stakeholder Tool for Assessing Radioactive Transportation (START). START is a web-based geospatial tool developed to provide visualization and initial evaluation of transportation options associated with future SNF and HLW shipment planning and operations. This includes characterizing safety, economic, and environmental conditions on and in proximity to shipment origins as well as along prospective transportation routes. Information from the START tool can be presented/shared as maps, graphics, geospatial files, and tabular form to enable easy data representation and export functionality. The system analysis, NGSAM, and START teams had been working closely for several years before formalizing this collaboration. START provides the SNF routing information for use in NGSAM. System analysts use the NGSAM tool to generate results (schedule, costs, infrastructure acquisitions, shipment rates, etc.). Subject-matter experts and system analysts work together to inform how NGSAM should model the waste management system. Specifically, this paper discusses the collaborations between the system analysis, NGSAM, and START teams and their accomplishments over the past year. Some examples of these efforts include calibrating and adding data to the START output files to meet NGSAM needs, gaining a better understanding of START data used in NGSAM, as well as how updates in START data could result in an improved NGSAM analysis. Detailed examples of various tasks that have been performed by the team will be discussed in the full paper. Continued efforts in this direction are expected in the coming years.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Nodal Capacity Expansion Modeling with ReEDS: A Case Study of the RTS-GMLC Test System

Test systems play an important role in power systems analysis and are used extensively for a wide range of purposes like reliability analysis, production cost modeling, studying the impacts of load shifting, and many more. These test systems have continued to evolve over the years to keep pace with changing system compositions due to technology and policy changes. In this work, we apply the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) model, a large-scale capacity expansion model (CEM), on the nodal RTS-GMLC system to perform capacity expansion of the bus-level test system. This work both demonstrates that a large-scale CEM can successfully be applied to nodal systems, and that the CEM can allow a test system to be evolved to meet desired criteria. The process allowed the coupling of CEM data not available in the test system (such as capital costs) with test system data to provide plausible system evolutions in line with scenario specifications.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Advancing Concentrating Solar Thermal Modeling Using System Advisor Model (SAM)

Concentrating solar thermal (CST) technologies play a critical role in enabling dispatchable power and high-temperature industrial heat applications. Accurate and flexible modeling tools are essential for evaluating system performance, guiding technology research and development, and informing investment decisions. The National Laboratory of the Rockies's System Advisor Model (SAM) is a widely used techno-economic simulation platform for CST systems, providing detailed performance and financial modeling capabilities for multiple CST system configurations. SAM integrates physics-based performance models with financial analysis to simulate the behavior of complex energy systems under realistic operating conditions. For CST technologies (including tower, parabolic trough, and linear Fresnel), SAM enables hourly simulations using site-specific weather data that ensure feasible operating conditions and convergence of mass and energy between core system components (i.e., solar field, receiver, thermal energy storage, and power cycle). These capabilities allow researchers and developers to evaluate annual energy production, capacity factors, levelized cost of energy (LCOE), and system dispatch strategies. A key advantage of SAM lies in its flexibility for parametric analysis and large-scale computational studies. Users can vary system design parameters such as heliostat field layout, receiver dimensions, thermal energy storage capacity, power block sizing, and installation cost assumptions to investigate their impact on system performance and financial metrics. When combined with automated scripting through LK, SDKTool, or Python interfaces, SAM enables high-throughput simulation workflows that support sensitivity analysis, technology benchmarking, and optimization studies. These approaches are particularly valuable for next-generation CST concepts, where design spaces are large and system interactions are complex. Another important capability of SAM is its support for dispatch optimization and thermal energy storage modeling, which are central to the value proposition of CST technologies. The ability to simulate integrated storage and flexible power generation allows researchers to explore strategies that maximize grid value, improve capacity utilization, and enhance integration with variable resources such as photovoltaic and wind generation. This poster will present an overview of SAM's thermal system modeling capabilities including concentrating solar. Additionally, we will highlight new feature developments including: 1) implementing Google's OR-Tools optimization platform for faster and more robust dispatch optimization, 2) developing a new power load following controller for modeling behind-the-meter applications, 3) enabling direct modeling of CSP-PV hybrid systems with the inclusion of battery storage, and 4) developing a multi-receiver falling particle Gen3 system model.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Designing clay-polymer nanocomposite sorbents for water treatment: A review and meta-analysis of the past decade

Clay-polymer nanocomposites (CPNs) have been studied for two decades as sorbents for water pollutants, but their applicability remains limited. Our aim in this review is to present the latest progress in CPN research using a meta-analysis approach and identify key steps necessary to bridge the gap between basic research and CPN application. Based on results extracted from 99 research articles on CPNs and 8 review articles on other widely studies sorbents, CPNs had higher adsorption capacities for several inorganic and organic pollutant classes (including heavy metals, oxyanions, and dyes, n = 308 observations). We applied principal component analysis, analysis of variance, and multiple linear regressions to test how CPN and pollutant properties correlated with Langmuir adsorption model coefficients. While adsorption was, surprisingly, not influenced by mineral properties, it was influenced by CPN fabrication method, polymer functional groups, and pollutant properties. For example, among the pollutant classes, heavy metals had the highest adsorption capacity but the lowest adsorption affinity. Conversely, dyes had high adsorption affinities, as reflected by the linear correlation between adsorption affinity and pollutant molecular weight. Scaling from ‘basic research’ to ‘technological application’ requires testing CPN performance in real water, application in columns, comparison to commercial sorbents, regeneration, and cost evaluation. However, our survey indicates that of the 158 observations, only 20 compared the CPN's performance to that of a commercial sorbent. We anticipate that this review will promote the design of smart and functional CPNs, which can then evolve into an effective water treatment technology.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Feasibility Analysis for the Use of Retrofitted Air-Conditioners Using Thermal Energy Storage (TES) for High Ambient Temperature (HAT) Countries

In high ambient temperature (HAT) countries, summer temperatures exceed 35℃, degrading the performance of air-conditioning systems and straining power grids. In this paper, a feasibility analysis was conducted to investigate potential savings during the peak using latent Thermal Energy Storage (TES) at near room phase-change temperatures, replacing condensers, thus, minimizing temperature lifts. Weather data, building loads, and baseline air-conditioning systems data were gathered for Dubai. A transient vapor-compression model in Modelica was used to compare the COP, total power input and cooling capacity of the air-conditioner at peak hours when ambient temperatures range between 35 – 45 ⁰C versus the TES-Phase-Change Material (PCM) melting temperatures from 22 – 28⁰C. The results indicate that the TES-PCM can enhance the system COP at the peak by a factor 1.4 and 2 for during for outdoor temperatures of 35 – 40⁰C, and 40 – 45⁰C, respectively. Lower melting temperature PCMs were able to reduce the required power input by 30-50%, with more savings occurring at higher temperature days. On the other hand, higher temperature PCMs enhancements were minimal especially at outdoor ambient temperatures ranging between 35 – 40⁰C. Improvements to the cooling capacity range from 8 – 18 % for the outdoor temperature range of 35 – 45 ⁰C. An economic analysis was conducted to find the potential saving in utility costs for 30%, 60%, and 90% of the space cooling demands of Dubai, and find the trade-off points between utility savings and cost of PCM-TES implementation. If the peak loads are to be shifted by 6 hours daily, the percentage utility savings for the city is 18%. Using estimated costs of the PCM-TES, ranging from $200-500/kWh, the daily load shifting hours were estimated to range from 4 hours at the lowest cost systems to 2.5 hours at the highest costs.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Advanced Processing of Coal and Coal Waste to Produce Graphite for Fast-Charging Lithium-Ion Battery Anode

The University of North Dakota (UND) Energy & Environmental Research Center (EERC), in collaboration with the UND Center for Process Engineering Research (CPER), conducted a project to validate two technologies capable of converting North Dakota lignite and lignite coal waste to high-quality graphite for fast-charging lithium-ion battery (LIB) anode. The project was conducted over about 3 years from April 7, 2022, to July 6, 2025. The two technological paths pursued in this project include path A – direct conversion of coal or coal waste to graphite by the upgraded carbon ores to products (UCOP) process being developed at the EERC and path B – lignite-derived coal tar pitch (CTP) conversion to graphite (CTP2G) process being developed at CPER. The results from this project validate the two technological approaches and are expected to be an integral part of a portfolio of emerging technologies for making high-quality graphite not only from North Dakota lignite, but from all ranks of U.S. domestic coal and coal waste resources. The quality of the graphite produced by these technologies is high enough for various applications, including batteries for the fast-growing electric vehicle industry, energy storage applications, electric arc furnace electrodes for steel production, and graphene production, among others. Although the two technologies can produce high-quality graphite, they are fundamentally different in that the UCOP technology provides a direct path to transform coal to graphite, while the CTP2G technology needs to go through a CTP intermediate and a coking process for the intermediate, which requires a special facility to accomplish. For application in the industry, the UCOP process is designed to be more flexible, with feedstock to include potentially any carbonaceous material such as all coal ranks and biochar, while the CTP2G process is designed to utilize CTP as the starting precursor. The key project accomplishments include the following: • Successful preparation of high-quality synthetic graphite from North Dakota lignite coal/coal wastes and lignite-derived CTP. • Patent application has been filed for the UCOP process and an internal invention disclosure has been filed for the CTP2G process. • The produced graphite performs better than a commercial battery-grade sample in LIB coin cells, especially fast-charging capability, stability, and long-duration cycling. • Coin-type Li-ion half-cells with CTP2G graphite showed excellent performance, with >370 mAh/g capacity, >90% initial coulombic efficiency, and 93%/67% retention at 1C/2C rate, which outperforms commercial graphite in charging speed, stability, and cycling. • Results of fabricated 18650 cells were consistent with the observations in coin cells. • Preliminary techno-economic analysis (TEA) estimates for the UCOP technology indicate a manufacturing cost of about $\$$39/kg based on 50-metric ton/year capacity. • Preliminary TEA estimates for the CTP2G technology indicate a market price of about $\$$7107/ton ($\$$7/kg) based on 22,000-ton/year production capacity.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

DOE OSTI2020

Analysis of an all-solid state nanobattery using molecular dynamics simulations under an external electric field

Present Li-ion battery (LIB) technology requires strong improvements in performance, energy capacity, charging-time, and cost to expand their application to e-mobility and grid storage. Li-metal is one of the most promising materials to replace commercial anodes such as graphite because of its 10 times higher specific capacity. However, Li-metal has high reactivity with commercial liquid electrolytes; thus, new solid materials are proposed to replace liquid electrolytes when Li-metal anodes are used. We present a theoretical analysis of the charging process in a full nanobattery, containing a LiCoO 2 cathode, a Li 7 P2S 8 I solid-state electrolyte (SSE), a Li-metal anode as well as Al and Cu collectors for the cathode and anode, respectively. In addition, we added a Li 3 P/Li 2 S film as a solid electrolyte interphase (SEI) layer between the Li-anode and SSE. Thus, we focus this study on the SEI and SSE. We simulated the charging of the nanobattery with an external voltage by applying an electric field. We estimated temperature profiles within the nanobattery and analyzed Li-ion transport through the SSE and SEI. Here, we observed a slight temperature rise at the SEI due to reactions forming $PS_{3}^{–}$ and $P_{2}S_{7}^{4}$$^{–}$ fragments at the interfaces; however, this temperature profile changes due to the charging current under the presence of the external electric field ε = 0.75 V Å –1 . Without the external field, the calculated open-circuit voltage (OCV) was 3.86 V for the battery, which is within the range of values of commercial cobalt-based LIBs. This voltage implies a spontaneous fall of available Li-ions from the anode to the cathode (during discharge). The charge of this nanobattery requires overcoming the OCV plus an additional voltage that determines the charging current. Thus, we applied an external potential able to neutralize the OCV, plus an additional 1.6 V to induce the transport of Li + from the cathode up to the anode. Several interesting details about Li + transport paths through the SSE and SEI are discussed.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2020

Electrification Futures Study: Methodological Approaches for Assessing Long-Term Power System Impacts of End-Use Electrification

By its nature, electrification enhances the coupling between the electric sector and end-use sectors. Assessing the impacts of electrification requires both an examination of the complex interactions between sectors and a broader assessment of multiple parts of the energy system. The Electrification Futures Study (EFS) uses several complementary modeling and analysis tools to analyze the impacts of electrification on the U.S. energy system. In particular, the EFS relies on an overarching scenario analysis approach, but through the use of separate modeling approaches designed to assess various electricity demand- and supply-side futures. The primary model employed to generate the supply-side scenarios is the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) model, which is a capacity expansion model for the U.S. electricity system through 2050. Traditionally, the model has been primarily exercised in scenario analysis that implicitly assumed limited electrification. Because of this assumption, resulting future load profiles are approximated by historical ones, load growth is driven primarily by population and economic growth only, and changes in direct end-use natural gas consumption do not effect natural gas costs for electricity generation. In this report, we (1) reflect the potential for resource sharing between regions given these changes in demand, (2) represent how changes in natural gas consumption in end-use sectors could impact the economics of natural gas-fired generation, and (3) document a new model representation of demand-side flexibility used for the EFS. These improvements to ReEDS are employed for the EFS supply-wide analysis, which is summarized in a companion EFS report titled Electrification Futures Study: Scenarios of Power System Evolution and Infrastructure Development for the United States (Murphy et al. 2019). The data and methods documented in this report could also be adapted for other models with similar scope and limitations as ReEDS, and these data and methods could be used to assess future electric system scenarios.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2026

EXERGETIC: De-Risking Next-Generation Resilient Geothermal Hybrids via At-Scale Evaluation Using Virtual Emulation Digital Twin Environment for Efficient Operation

The DOE-GTO-funded project, award number 5.1.2.12, entitled "EXERGETIC - De-risking Next Generation Resilient Geothermal Hybrids via at-Scale Evaluation Using a Virtual Emulation Digital Twin Environment for Efficient Operation," advances the solution to these challenges by developing and validating a geothermal co-emulation environment implemented at the National Laboratory of the Rockies (NLR)'s Advanced Research on Integrated Energy Systems (ARIES) platform. This framework enables the de-risking of next-generation geothermal and geothermal hybrid systems through high-fidelity modeling, real-time digital emulation, advanced control strategies, and techno-economic assessment. The project focused on geothermal hybrid configurations that integrate geothermal power plants with concentrated solar power and underground thermal energy storage, enabling enhanced efficiency, flexibility, and grid support capabilities. The main goal of this project was the development of a geothermal digital co-emulation environment to demonstrate the technical and economic value of geothermal hybrid systems and their contribution to grid stability and flexibility. The EXERGETIC framework combined physics-based models, controls, and real assets at ARIES, including digital real-time simulators (DRTS), a 20-MW-scale controllable grid interface (CGI), and a 2-MW conventional generator. Detailed transient models were developed for the key subsystems of a hybrid geothermal plant, including parabolic trough solar collectors, reservoir thermal energy storage (RTES), and a binary Organic Rankine Cycle (ORC) power plant. The ORC model explicitly captured thermal inertia and off-design operation and integrated control strategies to dynamically respond to electric load profiles. The models were validated against published experimental and numerical studies, demonstrating strong agreement and confirming the accuracy and robustness of the modeling approach. The resulting digital twin represents geothermal-solar-storage systems at multiple scales (1 MW to 100 MW) and enables realistic emulation of grid-connected operation. The control architecture allows the geothermal resource to provide stable baseload generation, while solar and stored thermal energy supply flexible, dispatchable support during periods of high demand or variable grid conditions. A key contribution of the EXERGETIC project is the demonstration that geothermal hybrid systems can be designed to be active grid assets rather than passive baseload generators. Using the ARIES platform, the digital twin was evaluated under multiple grid scenarios, including load following, voltage support at the distribution level, and frequency response at the transmission level. Results show that hybrid geothermal systems can respond effectively to dynamic grid conditions, providing inertia-like behavior, primary frequency support, and voltage regulation through coordinated control. In addition to the performance and grid services capability analysis of geothermal and hybrid geothermal systems, the EXERGETIC project also focused on scalability and techno-economic analysis of geothermal hybrid plants. In particular, for the scalability analysis, machine-learning (ML)-based surrogate models were trained using data generated from the geothermal digital twin under different grid-connected scenarios and plant capacities. These ML models demonstrated strong interpolation and extrapolation capabilities across plant sizes, accurately reproducing both steady-state and transient responses with very low errors. Regarding the techno-economic analysis, plant performance results were integrated with cost models for hybrid geothermal systems, and the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) was used as the main economic metric to evaluate system performance across a range of system capacities, solar shares, solar multiples, and storage durations. Results indicate that economies of scale significantly reduce geothermal LCOE as plant capacity increases, with large-scale systems (25-100 MW) achieving substantially lower costs than small plants. Hybridization with solar thermal energy and storage further improves economic performance by increasing capacity utilization and enabling flexible dispatch. In addition, thermal storage plays a critical role in reducing LCOE by maximizing geothermal, solar, and stored energy resources. In summary, the results from this project demonstrate that geothermal hybrid systems represent a promising alternative for increasing the energy conversion efficiency of geothermal technologies, contributing to the preservation of geothermal resources, and supporting the transition of geothermal plants from traditional baseload resources into flexible, resilient, and cost-competitive energy conversion technologies.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Advanced Fuel Cycle Cost Basis Report: Module D1-4 and Module D1-5 Ceramic Pelletized Sodium-Cooled Fast Reactor (SFR) Fuel Fabrication Ceramic Vibrocompacted Fuel Fabrication

This is a cost module that is part of the Advanced Fuel Cycle -- Cost Basis Report. Module D1-4: Nature of this module update (Rev 1) from previous advanced fuel cycle cost basis reports (AFCCBRs): new life cycle cost data on U,Pu SFR mixed oxide (MOX) fuels is derived from the Nonproliferation Assessment Systems Analysis Program (NASAP) conducted in the late 1970s. Highassay low-enriched uranium (HALEU) ceramic fuel is also discussed in more detail compared to earlier AFC-CBRs, since some advanced SFR concepts currently under development will require this HALEU fuel type for startup. Module D1-5: Nature of this FY-21 module update from previous AFC-CBRs: this module includes a few new references and a somewhat expanded discussion of vibrocompaction fuel fabrication technology. The WIT values for VIPAC are pegged directly to those for conventional LWR and SFR pelletized U,Pu MOX (note that this module now includes VIPAC MOX fuel for LWRs in addition to SFRs). Based on information from Russia, where VIPAC has been studied extensively, the unit costs are expressed as a percentage of those in the new updated Module D1-2 (pelletized U,Pu MOX) and new updated Module D1-4 (pelletized U,Pu MOX) for large NOAK fabrication facilities of the same production capacity. Since both ceramic pelletized MOX Modules D1-2 and D1-4 benefitted from analysis of 1970s NASAP data, by extension this Module D1-5 also benefits.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗