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At least 379 records · Page 21

Quantifying bias due to non-Gaussian foregrounds in an optimal reconstruction of CMB lensing and temperature power spectra

We estimate the magnitude of the bias due to non-Gaussian extragalactic foregrounds on the optimal reconstruction of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) lensing potential and temperature power spectra. The reconstruction is performed using a Bayesian inference method known as the marginal unbiased score expansion (MUSE). We apply MUSE to a minimum variance combination of multifrequency maps drawn from the Agora publicly available simulations of the lensed CMB and correlated extragalactic foreground emission. Taking noise levels appropriate to the SPT-3G D1 release, we find non-Gaussian foregrounds may bias the MUSE reconstruction of the lensing potential amplitude at the level of (0.7 ± 0.3)σ when using modes up to ℓ max = 3500. We do not detect a statistically significant bias, finding a value of (-0.4 ± 0.3)σ, when restricted to lower angular multipoles, ℓ max = 3000. This work is a first step toward understanding the impact of extragalactic foregrounds on optimal reconstructions of CMB temperature and lensing potential power spectra.

Statistical sampling techniques↗

Designing an Optimal Sensor Network via Minimizing Information Loss

Optimal experimental design is a classic topic in statistics, with many well-studied problems, applications, and solutions. The design problem we study is the placement of sensors to monitor spatiotemporal processes, explicitly accounting for the temporal dimension in our modeling and optimization. We observe that recent advancements in computational sciences often yield large datasets based on physics-based simulations, which are rarely leveraged in experimental design. We introduce a novel model-based sensor placement criterion, along with a highly-efficient optimization algorithm, which integrates physics-based simulations and Bayesian experimental design principles to identify sensor networks that “minimize information loss” from simulated data. Our technique relies on sparse variational inference and (separable) Gauss-Markov priors, and thus may adapt many techniques from Bayesian experimental design. We validate our method through a case study monitoring air temperature in Phoenix, Arizona, using state-of-the-art physics-based simulations. Our results show our framework to be superior to random or quasi-random sampling, particularly with a limited number of sensors. We conclude by discussing practical considerations and implications of our framework, including more complex modeling tools and real-world deployments.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

KaRMMa – kappa reconstruction for mass mapping

ABSTRACT We present KaRMMa, a novel method for performing mass map reconstruction from weak-lensing surveys. We employ a fully Bayesian approach with a physically motivated lognormal prior to sample from the posterior distribution of convergence maps. We test KaRMMa on a suite of dark matter N-body simulations with simulated DES Y1-like shear observations. We show that KaRMMa outperforms the basic Kaiser–Squires mass map reconstruction in two key ways: (1) our best map point estimate has lower residuals compared to Kaiser–Squires; and (2) unlike the Kaiser–Squires reconstruction, the posterior distribution of KaRMMa maps is nearly unbiased in all summary statistics we considered, namely: one-point and two-point functions, and peak/void counts. In particular, KaRMMa successfully captures the non-Gaussian nature of the distribution of κ values in the simulated maps. We further demonstrate that the KaRMMa posteriors correctly characterize the uncertainty in all summary statistics we considered.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Multi-Mechanism Flood Hazard Assessment: Critical Review of Current Practice and Approaches

This report documents the initial findings from the Nuclear Regulatory commission (NRC)-sponsored research project Methods for Estimating Joint Probabilities of Coincident and Correlated Flooding Mechanisms for Nuclear Power Plant Flood Hazard Assessments.1 This research project is a part of NRC’s Probabilistic Flood Hazard Assessment (PFHA) Research Program and will aid the development of guidance on the use of PFHA methods to evaluate infrastructure safety for existing and proposed US nuclear power plants (NPPs). More specifically, this project intends to provide technical background for the development of flood hazard curves for multi-mechanism floods (MMFs). MMFs are flood events caused by more than one flooding mechanism (e.g., flood events due to the simultaneous occurrence of precipitation-induced river flooding and storm surge). Project activities include three main tasks: Task 1—Survey of current concepts and methods in assessing MMF hazards; Task 2—Critical assessment of selected methods and approaches for quantifying probabilistic MMF hazard risk; Task 3—Development of example case studies to illustrate best practices for quantifying probabilistic MMF hazard risk The initial findings from Tasks 1 and 2 are documented in this report. Task 1 comprised a survey of approaches and methods that have been applied to understand and assess flood hazards due to MMFs. Task 2 involved a critical review of the selected approaches and methods. To that end, the scope of this report includes documentation of (1) a reconnaissance-level survey of the current state of concepts and practice for MMF hazard assessment; (2) a generalized MMF assessment framework to address the distinctions among various types of flood-forcing phenomena, flood mechanisms (grouped into three mechanism types), and flood severity metrics; (3) a wide-ranging survey of approaches and methods that have been applied to various flooding phenomena and settings; and (4) a critical assessment of MMF hazard assessment methods. Studies were identified involving MMFs related to coastal flooding mechanisms, fluvial (rivers/streams) flooding mechanisms, and associated combinations of coastal and fluvial flooding mechanisms. Studies were also identified that address MMFs involving coastal and fluvial flooding mechanisms as well as coastal flooding mechanisms along with extreme precipitation (without specific attribution to fluvial or pluvial mechanisms). The studies identified for review in this report included assessments at varying spatial scales (from local to global) with differing geographic regions of focus using both observed and synthetic data. The majority of studies identified and reviewed were site-specific assessments focusing on relatively short return periods. Studies considered a range of flood severity metrics, made differing assumptions regarding the occurrence of extrema, and used multiple statistical techniques; the use of copulas for the development of joint distributions was a particularly popular analysis technique. The literature review highlighted the differences among existing studies relative to terminology used, means of presenting results, framework and techniques employed, and level of sophistication regarding the number and types of variables considered. Despite the significant diversity in existing studies, the review identified several promising techniques that will be considered in future work under this project, including the development of joint distributions for MMFs using copula and Bayesian-motivated approaches.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

Lithium-Ion Battery Diagnostics Using Electrochemical Impedance via Machine-Learning

Diagnosing battery states such as health, state-of-charge, or temperature is crucial for ensuring the safety and reliability of electrochemical energy storage systems. While some states, such as temperature, may be measured using cheap sensors, accurate diagnosis of battery health metrics usually requires time-consuming performance measurements, making them infeasible for use in real-world operation. These health metrics can be measured during lab-testing and then estimated on-line using predictive life models or via state observer algorithms such as Kalman filters, but these predictive methods should be supplemented by actual measurement of battery health whenever possible to ensure reliability. Rapid measurement of battery health may be done by various types of fast diagnostic techniques such as electrochemical impedance spectroscopy (EIS), which can be performed in only a few minutes and require only a fraction of the energy and power needed for a full charge and discharge measurement. But there is a substantial challenge for estimating battery health using EIS data, as EIS is sensitive to cell temperature, state-of-charge, current, and resting time in addition to health. Thus, utilizing EIS data to predict battery capacity requires correcting for all these additional variables, a task that is extremely difficult to handle analytically. This talk utilizes machine-learning methods to estimate the effectiveness of battery capacity prediction from EIS data, leveraging a data set of hundreds of EIS measurements recorded at varying temperature and state-of-charge throughout a 500-day aging study of 32 commercial, large-format NMC-Graphite lithium-ion batteries. Using EIS as input to machine-learning models is complicated by the nonlinear response of impedance to battery health, temperature, and state-of-charge, as well as the collinearity between the impedance response at neighboring frequencies, which can easily lead to overfit models. To train robust models, features from EIS data need to be extracted from the data or some subset of critical frequencies selected. Many approaches for extracting and selecting features from EIS data from electrochemical analysis and machine-learning fields were identified for analysis: using the entire raw spectra; selection of one, two, or many frequencies from the entire spectra; selecting interesting points from the EIS measurement using domain knowledge; fitting EIS with an equivalent-circuit model; calculating statistics on the raw impedance values; and reducing the dimensionality of the data using unsupervised linear (principal component analysis) and non-linear (uniform manifold approximation and projection) methods. These approaches were rigorously compared using a machine-learning pipeline approach, training linear, Gaussian process, and random forest regression models and quantifying performance using cross-validation as well as a held-out test set. An artificial neural network model trained on the raw spectra was also tested. Promising pipelines were fine-tuned via Bayesian hyperparameter optimization using cross-validation loss and training with class-specific weights to counter data set imbalance. The most reliable method for utilizing impedance in this work was the selection of two optimal frequencies through an exhaustive search, resulting in about 2% mean absolute error on test data for both Gaussian process and random forest model architectures. Interrogation of a variety of models reveals critical frequencies of 100 Hz and 103 Hz for this data set, though the optimal set of frequencies is not necessarily intuitive, i.e., the best performing models are not simply those that use impedance at frequencies that have the highest correlation to the relative discharge capacity. The best performing model is an ensemble model, which is able to predict battery capacity with 1.9% mean absolute error for unseen cells using impedance recorded at a variety of temperatures and states-of-charge.

battery↗

Data for Adoption of Perennial Energy Crops in the U.S. Midwest, Causal and Heterogeneous Determinants

The success of a bioenergy policy relies largely on the wide adoption of perennial energy crops at the farm scale. This study uses survey data to examine potential adoption decisions by farmers in the U.S. Midwest and the causal effects of various direct and indirect influencing factors, especially heterogeneous preferences of farmers. A Bayesian network (BN) model is developed to delineate the causal relationship between farmers adoption decisions and the influencing factors. We find a dominating role of economic factors and a non-negligible impact of non-economic factors, such as the perceived environmental benefits and the extent of familiarity with perennial energy crops. To examine the effect of heterogeneity in farmer preferences, we classify the surveyed farmers into four categories based on their attitudes toward the economic, social, and environmental dimensions of perennial energy crops. We identified statistically significant between-group differences in the responses of the four types of farmers to the various influencing factors. Our findings contribute to disentangling the complicated motivations that will influence perennial energy crop adoption decisions and provide implications for more targeted policy development that need to consider the heterogeneous drivers of farmer decisions about land use.

Modeling↗

Interpretable Uncertainty Quantification in AI for HEP

Estimating uncertainty is at the core of performing scientific measurements in HEP: a measurement is not useful without an estimate of its uncertainty. The goal of uncertainty quantification (UQ) is inextricably linked to the question, "how do we physically and statistically interpret these uncertainties?" The answer to this question depends not only on the computational task we aim to undertake, but also on the methods we use for that task. For artificial intelligence (AI) applications in HEP, there are several areas where interpretable methods for UQ are essential, including inference, simulation, and control/decision-making. There exist some methods for each of these areas, but they have not yet been demonstrated to be as trustworthy as more traditional approaches currently employed in physics (e.g., non-AI frequentist and Bayesian methods). Shedding light on the questions above requires additional understanding of the interplay of AI systems and uncertainty quantification. We briefly discuss the existing methods in each area and relate them to tasks across HEP. We then discuss recommendations for avenues to pursue to develop the necessary techniques for reliable widespread usage of AI with UQ over the next decade.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Differentially Private Synthesis and Sharing of Network Data Via Bayesian Exponential Random Graph Models

Abstract Network data often contain sensitive relational information. One approach to protecting sensitive information while offering flexibility for network analysis is to share synthesized networks based on the information in originally observed networks. We employ differential privacy (DP) and exponential random graph models (ERGMs) and propose the DP-ERGM method to synthesize network data. We apply DP-ERGM to two real-world networks. We then compare the utility of synthesized networks generated by DP-ERGM, the DyadWise Randomized Response (DWRR) approach, and the Synthesis through Conditional distribution of Edge given nodal Attribute (SCEA) approach. In general, the results suggest that DP-ERGM preserves the original information significantly better than two other approaches in network structural statistics and inference for ERGMs and latent space models. Furthermore, DP-ERGM satisfies node DP through modeling the global network structure with ERGM, a stronger notion of privacy than the edge DP under which DWRR and SCEA operate.

graph synthesis↗

Dynamical dark energy in light of the DESI DR2 baryonic acoustic oscillations measurements

Understanding whether cosmic acceleration arises from a cosmological constant or a dynamical component is a central goal of cosmology, and the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) enables stringent tests with high-precision distance measurements. Here we analyse measurements of baryon acoustic oscillations in DESI Data Release 1 and Data Release 2 and consider type Ia supernovae and a distance prior for the cosmic microwave background. With the larger statistical power and wider redshift coverage of Data Release 2, the preference for dynamical dark energy does not diminish relative to Data Release 1. Using both a shape-function reconstruction and non-parametric approaches with a Horndeski-motivated correlation prior, we find that the equation of state for dark energy w(z) varies with redshift. Baryon acoustic oscillation data alone yield modest constraints, but in combination with independent supernova compilations and the prior for the cosmic microwave background, they strengthen the evidence for dynamics. A Bayesian comparison of models shows moderate support for departures from Λ cold dark matter (ΛCDM) when several degrees of freedom in w(z) are allowed, corresponding to ~3σ tension with ΛCDM (and higher for some datasets). Despite methodological differences, our results are consistent with companion DESI papers, underscoring the complementarity of the approaches. Possible systematics remain under study; forthcoming DESI, Euclid and next-generation cosmic microwave background data will provide decisive tests.

cosmology↗

Dynamical dark energy in light of the DESI DR2 baryonic acoustic oscillations measurements

Understanding whether cosmic acceleration arises from a cosmological constant or a dynamical component is a central goal of cosmology, and the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) enables stringent tests with high-precision distance measurements. Here we analyse measurements of baryon acoustic oscillations in DESI Data Release 1 and Data Release 2 and consider type Ia supernovae and a distance prior for the cosmic microwave background. With the larger statistical power and wider redshift coverage of Data Release 2, the preference for dynamical dark energy does not diminish relative to Data Release 1. Using both a shape-function reconstruction and non-parametric approaches with a Horndeski-motivated correlation prior, we find that the equation of state for dark energy w(z) varies with redshift. Baryon acoustic oscillation data alone yield modest constraints, but in combination with independent supernova compilations and the prior for the cosmic microwave background, they strengthen the evidence for dynamics. A Bayesian comparison of models shows moderate support for departures from Λ cold dark matter (ΛCDM) when several degrees of freedom in w(z) are allowed, corresponding to ~3σ tension with ΛCDM (and higher for some datasets). Despite methodological differences, our results are consistent with companion DESI papers, underscoring the complementarity of the approaches. Possible systematics remain under study; forthcoming DESI, Euclid and next-generation cosmic microwave background data will provide decisive tests.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Bayesian model selection for GRB 211211A through multiwavelength analyses

ABSTRACT Although GRB 211211A is one of the closest gamma-ray bursts (GRBs), its classification is challenging because of its partially inconclusive electromagnetic signatures. In this paper, we investigate four astrophysical scenarios as possible progenitors for GRB 211211A: a binary neutron star merger, a black hole–neutron star merger, a core-collapse supernova, and an r-process enriched core collapse of a rapidly rotating massive star (a collapsar). We perform a large set of Bayesian multiwavelength analyses based on different models describing these scenarios and priors to investigate which astrophysical scenarios and processes might be related to GRB 211211A. Our analysis supports previous studies in which the presence of an additional component, likely related to r-process nucleosynthesis, is required to explain the observed light curves of GRB 211211A, as it cannot be explained solely as a GRB afterglow. Fixing the distance to about $350~\rm Mpc$, namely the distance of the possible host galaxy SDSS J140910.47+275320.8, we find a statistical preference for a binary neutron star merger scenario.

(transients:) gamma-ray bursts↗

A flexible class of priors for orthonormal matrices with basis function-specific structure

Statistical modeling of high-dimensional matrix-valued data motivates the use of a low-rank representation that simultaneously summarizes key characteristics of the data and enables dimension reduction. Low-rank representations commonly factor the original data into the product of orthonormal basis functions and weights, where each basis function represents an independent feature of the data. However, the basis functions in these factorizations are typically computed using algorithmic methods that cannot quantify uncertainty or account for basis function correlation structure a priori. While there exist Bayesian methods that allow for a common correlation structure across basis functions, empirical examples motivate the need for basis function-specific dependence structure. We propose a prior distribution for orthonormal matrices that can explicitly model basis function-specific structure. The prior is used within a general probabilistic model for singular value decomposition to conduct posterior inference on the basis functions while accounting for measurement error and fixed effects. We discuss how the prior specification can be used for various scenarios and demonstrate favorable model properties through synthetic data examples. Finally, we apply our method to two-meter air temperature data from the Pacific Northwest, enhancing our understanding of the Earth system’s internal variability.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

BEYONDPLANCK X. Planck Low Frequency Instrument frequency maps with sample-based error propagation

We present Planck Low Frequency Instrument (LFI) frequency sky maps derived within the BEYONDPLANCK framework. This framework draws samples from a global posterior distribution that includes instrumental, astrophysical, and cosmological parameters, and the main product is an entire ensemble of frequency sky map samples, each of which corresponds to one possible realization of the various modeled instrumental systematic corrections, including correlated noise, time-variable gain, as well as far sidelobe and bandpass corrections. This ensemble allows for computationally convenient end-to-end propagation of low-level instrumental uncertainties into higher-level science products, including astrophysical component maps, angular power spectra, and cosmological parameters. We show that the two dominant sources of LFI instrumental systematic uncertainties are correlated noise and gain fluctuations, and the products presented here support – for the first time – full Bayesian error propagation for these effects at full angular resolution. We compared our posterior mean maps with traditional frequency maps delivered by the Planck Collaboration, and find generally good agreement. The most important quality improvement is due to significantly lower calibration uncertainties in the new processing, as we find a fractional absolute calibration uncertainty at 70 GHz of Δg 0 /g 0 = 5 x 10 -5 , which is nominally 40 times smaller than that reported by Planck 2018. However, we also note that the original Planck 2018 estimate has a nontrivial statistical interpretation, and this further illustrates the advantage of the new framework in terms of producing self-consistent and well-defined error estimates of all involved quantities without the need of ad hoc uncertainty contributions. We describe how low-resolution data products, including dense pixel-pixel covariance matrices, may be produced from the posterior samples directly, without the need for computationally expensive analytic calculations or simulations. We conclude that posterior-based frequency map sampling provides unique capabilities in terms of low-level systematics modeling and error propagation, and may play an important role for future Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) B-mode experiments aiming at nanokelvin precision.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Ripening of Rh Nanoparticle Catalysts in Reverse Water–Gas Shift via a Data-Driven Model Combining Physics, Theory, and Experiment

Degradation via sintering is an ongoing challenge that impedes the broad commercial success of supported metallic nanoparticle catalysts. To mitigate degradation via informed catalyst design and process operations, here we aim to disambiguate the underlying mechanisms of sintering by combining theory and experiment in a quantitative framework. While mechanistic sintering models exist, they only model a single sintering pathway, even though multiple sintering mechanisms can occur simultaneously or dominate at different stages of the process. Data-driven machine learning models have emerged as a means to represent complex processes through data regression. However, machine learning models have very large data needs and lack mechanistic insights due to their black-box encoding. To develop an interpretive model of catalyst degradation via sintering, we constructed a hybrid model combining mechanistic “physics-based” models and data-driven methods to obtain both reliable predictions and mechanistic insights regarding experimentally observed sintering phenomena. Focusing on nanoparticle sintering in the Rh–TiO 2 catalyst for the reverse water–gas shift (RWGS) reaction, the hybrid model couples a mechanistic term for Ostwald ripening with energy values calculated via density functional theory (DFT) with a parametric, data-driven discrepancy function term for unmodeled mechanisms. The hybrid model is trained using Bayesian inference with data collected from small-angle X-ray scattering (SAXS) in situ experiments wherein average nanoparticle diameter versus time was measured at three relevant operating temperatures. The calibrated hybrid model results show that an Ostwald ripening-only model parameterized with fixed DFT energies does not fully capture the time and temperature dependence of the SAXS-observed sintering kinetics, and that an additional functional contribution, or DFT energy calibration, is required to reconcile simulation and experiment. Analysis of the hybrid-model error confirms that the hybrid model outperforms both the purely mechanistic and purely data-driven alternatives in terms of expected predictive accuracy for time-evolving average particle sizes. Furthermore, the results support the hypothesis that the Ostwald ripening mechanism is less important for explaining the sintering phenomena as operating temperature increases under an assumed fixed DFT parameterization. This could be explained in one of two ways: either latent, unmodeled sintering mechanisms dominate at higher temperatures, or the DFT uncertainty increases with temperature. The proposed modeling approach directly links theory to experiments and simulations via a statistical hybrid modeling framework and can be extended to other catalytic systems to improve predictive models and mechanistic understanding.

Bayesian hybrid modeling↗

New constraints on warm dark matter from the Lyman- α forest power spectrum

The forest of Lyman-α absorption lines detected in the spectra of distant quasars encodes information on the nature and properties of dark matter and the thermodynamics of diffuse baryonic material. Its main observable—the 1D flux power spectrum (FPS)—should exhibit a suppression on small scales and an enhancement on large scales in warm dark matter (WDM) cosmologies compared to standard Λ⁢CDM. Here, we present an unprecedented suite of 1080 high-resolution cosmological hydrodynamical simulations run with the graphics processing unit-accelerated code cholla to study the evolution of the Lyman-α forest under a wide range of physically motivated gas thermal histories along with different free-streaming lengths of WDM thermal relics in the early Universe. A statistical comparison of synthetic data with the forest FPS measured down to the smallest velocity scales ever probed at redshifts 4.0≲z≲5.2 [E. Boera et al., Revealing reionization with the thermal history of the intergalactic medium: New constraints from the Ly⁢α flux power spectrum, Astrophys. J. 872, 101 (2019)] yields a lower-limit m WDM >3.1 keV (95% C.L.) for the WDM particle mass and constrains the amplitude and spectrum of the photoheating and photoionizing background produced by star-forming galaxies and active galactic nuclei at these redshifts. Interestingly, our Bayesian inference analysis appears to weakly favor WDM models with a peak likelihood value at the thermal relic mass of m WDM =4.5 keV. In conclusion, we find that the suppression of the FPS from free-streaming saturates at k≳0.1 s km -1 because of peculiar velocity smearing, and this saturated suppression combined with a slightly lower gas temperature provides a moderately better fit to the observed small-scale FPS for WDM cosmologies.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

A Bayesian analysis of nuclear deformation properties with Skyrme energy functionals

In spite of numerous scientific and practical applications, there is still no comprehensive theoretical description of the nuclear fission process based solely on protons, neutrons and their interactions. Furthermore, the most advanced simulations of fission are currently carried out within nuclear density functional theory (DFT). In spite of being fully quantum-mechanical and rooted in the theory of nuclear forces, DFT still depends on a dozen or so parameters characterizing the energy functional. Calibrating these parameters on experimental data results in uncertainties that must be quantified for applications. This task is very challenging because of the high computational cost of DFT calculations for fission. In this paper, we use Gaussian processes to build emulators of DFT models in order to quantify and propagate statistical uncertainties of theoretical predictions for a range of nuclear deformations relevant to describing the fission process.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Probabilistic Groundwater Modeling of the RDX Plume at Los Alamos National Laboratory to Support Risk Assessment - 20359

A plume of the contaminant hexahydro-1,3,5-trinitro-1,3,5-triazine (RDX) with concentrations greater than the New Mexico tap water drinking standard (9.66 ppb) is present in the regional aquifer near the southwestern boundary of Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). A risk assessment is performed for exposure to regional aquifer groundwater, with long-term predictions of RDX concentrations provided by a calibrated, probabilistic, numerical fate and transport model. The structure of the model is hierarchical, with the RDX Regional Aquifer (RA) groundwater model acting as the primary tool for analysis of downgradient RDX concentrations. The RA model is deeply informed by the conceptual site model (CSM) and is calibrated using site RDX concentration data and hydraulic head measurements, along with other analyses. The model is calibrated using data through December 2019. Where data are scarce other lines of evidence are used to inform inputs, including the multiphase RDX Vadose Zone (VZ) model and Pipe and Disk analytical screening tool. Model inputs are described with informative prior distributions using a robust approach to development that incorporates all available lines of evidence for every parameter used as an input to the RA model. Calibration is performed using a classical nonlinear optimization routine, which is then used to initialize a Bayesian calibration. The Bayesian calibration constrains the uncertainty in the classical calibration, ultimately providing posterior distributions for all model parameters. The challenges of the calibration include high-dimensional parameter space, including spatially heterogeneous hydraulic conductivities, comparatively sparse data, and low RDX concentrations. Posterior parameter distributions developed in the calibration process are then used for stochastic predictive model runs into the future. The result of the forward runs is spatially and temporally explicit estimates of head and concentration with uncertainty at all points in space and time. The probabilistic modeling approach presented here includes innovative computational and statistical methods that leverage high-performance computing (HPC) resources. It makes use of prior modeling work performed at the chromium plume site in the central LANL area, with extensive updates. The risk assessment will ultimately be used to support decision-making at the site, using multiple appropriately weighted sources of information, as well as uncertainty, sensitivity, and value-of-information analyses. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Hadronic structure in high-energy collisions

Here, Parton distribution functions (PDFs) describe the structure of hadrons as composed of quarks and gluons. They are needed to make predictions for short-distance processes in high-energy collisions and are determined by fitting to cross-section data. Definitions of the PDFs and their relations to high-energy cross sections are reviewed. The focus is on the PDFs in protons, but PDFs in nuclei are also discussed. The standard statistical treatment needed to fit the PDFs to data using the Hessian method is reviewed in some detail. Tests are discussed that critically examine whether the needed assumptions are indeed valid. Also presented are some ideas of what one can do in case tests indicate that the assumptions fail.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗