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DOE OSTI2026

Changing-look Active Galactic Nuclei Powered by Disk Tearing

Changing-look active galactic nuclei (CLAGN) feature order-of-magnitude variability in both the continuum and broad line luminosities on months-to-years-long timescales, and are currently unexplained. Simulations have demonstrated that rotating black holes (BHs) sometimes tear apart tilted accretion disks. These tearing events violently restructure the disk on timescales much shorter than a viscous timescale, hinting at a connection to CLAGN. Here, we show that disk tearing can power changing-look events. We report synthetic observations of an extremely high-resolution, three-dimensional, general-relativistic magnetohydrodynamic simulation of a geometrically thin, tilted accretion disk around a rapidly rotating, 10 8 M ⊙ BH. We perform ray-tracing calculations that follow the thermal disk emission to both a line-of-sight camera and to a distribution of cameras in a prescribed torus-like broad-line region (BLR). The continuum photoionizes the BLR, and we calculate the resulting spectrum. Both the continuum and line luminosities undergo order-of-magnitude swings on months-to-years-long timescales. We find shorter, week-long variability driven by the geometric precession of the inner disk and an intraday quasiperiodic oscillation driven by radial breathing of the inner disk. When the torn disk precesses, it causes asymmetric illumination of the BLR, driving time-evolving red-to-blue asymmetries of the broad emission lines that may be a smoking gun for disk tearing. We also make predictions for future photometric observations from ULTRASAT and Vera Rubin Observatory, given a Shakura–Sunyaev–like effective temperature profile, both of which may play an important role in detecting future changing-look events. Future work should consider nonthermal emission, especially from the time-variable corona.

accretion↗
DOE OSTI2026

Quasars Acting as Strong Lenses Found in DESI DR1

Quasars acting as strong gravitational lenses offer a rare opportunity to probe the redshift evolution of scaling relations between supermassive black holes and their host galaxies, particularly the M$_{BH}$–M$_{host}$ relation. Using these powerful probes, the mass of the host galaxy can be precisely inferred from the Einstein radius θ$_{E}$. Using 812,118 quasars from DESI DR1 (0.03 ≤ z ≤ 1.8), we searched for quasars lensing higher-redshift galaxies by identifying background emission-line features in their spectra. To detect these rare systems, we trained a convolutional neural network (CNN) on mock lenses constructed from real DESI spectra of quasars and emission-line galaxies (ELGs), achieving a high classification performance (AUC = 0.99). We also trained a regression network to estimate the redshift of the background ELG. Applying this pipeline, we identified seven high-quality (Grade A) lens candidates, each exhibiting a strong [O II] doublet at a higher redshift than the foreground quasar; four candidates additionally show Hβ, [O III] λ4959, and [O III] λ5007 emission. These results significantly expand the sample of quasar lens candidates beyond the 12 identified and 3 confirmed in previous work and demonstrate the potential for scalable, data-driven discovery of quasars as strong lenses in upcoming spectroscopic surveys.

McArthur, Everett [Stanford U., Phys. Dept.; KIPAC↗
DOE OSTI2023

The Large Sky Area Multi-Object Fiber Spectroscopic Telescope (LAMOST) Quasar Survey: Quasar Properties from Data Releases 6 to 9

We report the fourth installment in the series of the Large Sky Area Multi-Object Fiber Spectroscopic Telescope (LAMOST) quasar survey, which includes quasars observed between 2017 September and 2021 June. There are in total 13,066 quasars reliably identified, of which 6685 are newly discovered that are not reported in the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) DR14 quasar catalog or Million Quasars catalog. Because LAMOST does not provide accurate absolute flux calibration, we recalibrate the spectra with the SDSS/Pan-STARRS1 multiband photometric data. The emission-line properties of Hα, Hβ, Mg II , and C Iv and the continuum luminosities are measured by fitting the recalibrated spectra. We also estimate the single-epoch virial black hole masses (M BH ) using the derived emission-line and continuum parameters. This is the first time that the emission-line and continuum fluxes were estimated based on LAMOST recalibrated quasar spectra. The catalog and spectra for these quasars are available online. After the 9 yr LAMOST quasar survey, there are in total 56,175 identified quasars, of which 24,127 are newly discovered. The LAMOST quasar survey not only discovers a great number of new quasars but also provides a database for investigating the spectral variability of the quasars observed by both LAMOST and SDSS and finding rare quasars, including changing-look quasars and broad absorption line quasars.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Entity—Hardware-agnostic Particle-in-cell Code for Plasma Astrophysics. II. General Relativistic Module

Black hole (BH) environments often host plasmas that are fully collisionless or contain intrinsically collisionless regions, including relativistic jets and coronae, where particle energization is ubiquitous. Capturing the physics of these systems requires numerical methods capable of modeling relativistic, magnetized, collisionless plasmas in strong gravitational fields. In this work, we introduce the general relativistic module for Entity—the first open-source, coordinate-agnostic, performance-portable, particle-in-cell code. The code enables fast axisymmetric simulations of collisionless plasmas around BHs on any modern high-performance computing architecture (both GPUs and CPUs).

Galishnikova, Alisa [Flatiron Institute, New York,↗
DOE OSTI2022

Hot Circumsingle Disks Drive Binary Black Hole Mergers in Active Galactic Nucleus Disks

Abstract Binary black hole (BBH) mergers, particularly those with component masses in the pair-instability gap, may be produced by hierarchical mergers in the disks surrounding Active Galactic Nuclei (AGNs). While the interaction of an embedded BBH with an AGN disk is typically assumed to facilitate a merger, recent high-resolution hydrodynamical simulations challenge this assumption. However, these simulations often have simplified treatments for gas thermodynamics. In this work, we model the possible consequence of various feedback from an embedded BBH with a simple model that maintains an enhanced temperature profile around each binary component. We show that when the minidisks around each BH become hotter than the background by a factor of three, the BBH orbital evolution switches from expansion to contraction. By analyzing the gravitational torque profile, we find that this change in direction is driven by a weakening of the minidisk spirals and their positive torque on the binary. Our results highlight the important role of thermodynamics around BBHs and its effect on their orbital evolution, suggesting that AGN disks could be efficient factories for BBH mergers.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Nucleosynthesis in Outflows from Black Hole–Neutron Star Merger Disks with Full GR(ν)RMHD

Abstract Along with binary neutron star mergers, the inspiral and merger of a black hole and a neutron star is a predicted site of r -process nucleosynthesis and associated kilonovae. For the right mass ratio, very large amounts of neutron-rich material (relative to the dynamical ejecta) may become unbound from the post-merger accretion disk. We simulate a suite of four post-merger disks with three-dimensional general-relativistic magnetohydrodynamics with time-dependent Monte Carlo neutrino transport. We find that within 10 4 GM BH / c 3 (∼200–500 ms), the outflows from these disks are very close to the threshold conditions for robust r -process nucleosynthesis. For these conditions, the detailed properties of the outflow determine whether a full r -process can or cannot occur, implying that a wide range of observable phenomena is possible. We show that on average the disk outflow lanthanide fraction is suppressed relative to the solar isotopic pattern. In combination with the dynamical ejecta, these outflows imply a kilonova with both blue and red components.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

An Accreting Supermassive Black Hole Buried in a Faint Dwarf Galaxy

Abstract In the last decade, there have been several discoveries of active galactic nuclei (AGN) in dwarf galaxies including an AGN in an ultracompact dwarf galaxy with a black hole mass >10 6 M ⊙ . However, finding a supermassive black hole (SMBH) in a dwarf low surface brightness (LSB) galaxy is rare. We report the discovery of a Seyfert type 2 class AGN that is associated with a nuclear SMBH of mass ∼6.5 × 10 6 M ⊙ in a dwarf LSB galaxy (μ 0,r > 23.8 mag arcsec −2 ) that we denote by MJ0818+2257. The galaxy was previously thought to be an outlying emission blob around the large spiral galaxy LEDA 1678924. In our current analysis, which includes the detection of the optical counterpart of MJ0818+2257, we study its ionized gas kinematics and find that the dynamical mass within the ionized gas disk is ∼5.3 × 10 9 M ⊙ . This is comparable to its stellar mass, which is ∼3 × 10 9 M ⊙ , and suggests that MJ0818+2257 is moderately dark matter dominated within the stellar disk. The SMBH-mass-to-galaxy-stellar-mass ratio isM BH /M(*) > 0.022, which is high compared to disk galaxies. Our detection of an SMBH in a bulgeless LSB dwarf galaxy raises questions about the growth of SMBHs in low-luminosity galaxies and suggests the possibility of detecting heavy seed black holes from early epochs in LSB dwarf galaxies in the low-redshift Universe.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗
DOE OSTI2023

Predictive performance of multi-model ensemble forecasts of COVID-19 across European nations

Background: Short-term forecasts of infectious disease burden can contribute to situational awareness and aid capacity planning. Based on best practice in other fields and recent insights in infectious disease epidemiology, one can maximise the predictive performance of such forecasts if multiple models are combined into an ensemble. Here, we report on the performance of ensembles in predicting COVID-19 cases and deaths across Europe between 08 March 2021 and 07 March 2022. Methods: We used open-source tools to develop a public European COVID-19 Forecast Hub. We invited groups globally to contribute weekly forecasts for COVID-19 cases and deaths reported by a standardised source for 32 countries over the next 1–4 weeks. Teams submitted forecasts from March 2021 using standardised quantiles of the predictive distribution. Each week we created an ensemble forecast, where each predictive quantile was calculated as the equally-weighted average (initially the mean and then from 26th July the median) of all individual models’ predictive quantiles. We measured the performance of each model using the relative Weighted Interval Score (WIS), comparing models’ forecast accuracy relative to all other models. We retrospectively explored alternative methods for ensemble forecasts, including weighted averages based on models’ past predictive performance. Results: Over 52 weeks, we collected forecasts from 48 unique models. We evaluated 29 models’ forecast scores in comparison to the ensemble model. We found a weekly ensemble had a consistently strong performance across countries over time. Across all horizons and locations, the ensemble performed better on relative WIS than 83% of participating models’ forecasts of incident cases (with a total N=886 predictions from 23 unique models), and 91% of participating models’ forecasts of deaths (N=763 predictions from 20 models). Across a 1–4 week time horizon, ensemble performance declined with longer forecast periods when forecasting cases, but remained stable over 4 weeks for incident death forecasts. In every forecast across 32 countries, the ensemble outperformed most contributing models when forecasting either cases or deaths, frequently outperforming all of its individual component models. Among several choices of ensemble methods we found that the most influential and best choice was to use a median average of models instead of using the mean, regardless of methods of weighting component forecast models. Conclusions: Our results support the use of combining forecasts from individual models into an ensemble in order to improve predictive performance across epidemiological targets and populations during infectious disease epidemics. Our findings further suggest that median ensemble methods yield better predictive performance more than ones based on means. Our findings also highlight that forecast consumers should place more weight on incident death forecasts than incident case forecasts at forecast horizons greater than 2 weeks. Funding: AA, BH, BL, LWa, MMa, PP, SV funded by National Institutes of Health (NIH) Grant 1R01GM109718, NSF BIG DATA Grant IIS-1633028, NSF Grant No.: OAC-1916805, NSF Expeditions in Computing Grant CCF-1918656, CCF-1917819, NSF RAPID CNS-2028004, NSF RAPID OAC-2027541, US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention 75D30119C05935, a grant from Google, University of Virginia Strategic Investment Fund award number SIF160, Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA) under Contract No. HDTRA1-19-D-0007, and respectively Virginia Dept of Health Grant VDH-21-501-0141, VDH-21-501-0143, VDH-21-501-0147, VDH-21-501-0145, VDH-21-501-0146, VDH-21-501-0142, VDH-21-501-0148. AF, AMa, GL funded by SMIGE - Modelli statistici inferenziali per governare l'epidemia, FISR 2020-Covid-19 I Fase, FISR2020IP-00156, Codice Progetto: PRJ-0695. AM, BK, FD, FR, JK, JN, JZ, KN, MG, MR, MS, RB funded by Ministry of Science and Higher Education of Poland with grant 28/WFSN/2021 to the University of Warsaw. BRe, CPe, JLAz funded by Ministerio de Sanidad/ISCIII. BT, PG funded by PERISCOPE European H2020 project, contract number 101016233. CP, DL, EA, MC, SA funded by European Commission - Directorate-General for Communications Networks, Content and Technology through the contract LC-01485746, and Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovacion y Universidades and FEDER, with the project PGC2018-095456-B-I00. DE., MGu funded by Spanish Ministry of Health / REACT-UE (FEDER). DO, GF, IMi, LC funded by Laboratory Directed Research and Development program of Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) under project number 20200700ER. DS, ELR, GG, NGR, NW, YW funded by National Institutes of General Medical Sciences (R35GM119582; the content is solely the responsibility of the authors and does not necessarily represent the official views of NIGMS or the National Institutes of Health). FB, FP funded by InPresa, Lombardy Region, Italy. HG, KS funded by European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control. IV funded by Agencia de Qualitat i Avaluacio Sanitaries de Catalunya (AQuAS) through contract 2021-021OE. JDe, SMo, VP funded by Netzwerk Universitatsmedizin (NUM) project egePan (01KX2021). JPB, SH, TH funded by Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF; grant 05M18SIA). KH, MSc, YKh funded by Project SaxoCOV, funded by the German Free State of Saxony. Presentation of data, model results and simulations also funded by the NFDI4Health Task Force COVID-19 ( https://www.nfdi4health.de/task-force-covid-19-2 ) within the framework of a DFG-project (LO-342/17-1). LP, VE funded by Mathematical and Statistical modelling project (MUNI/A/1615/2020), Online platform for real-time monitoring, analysis and management of epidemic situations (MUNI/11/02202001/2020); VE also supported by RECETOX research infrastructure (Ministry of Education, Youth and Sports of the Czech Republic: LM2018121), the CETOCOEN EXCELLENCE (CZ.02.1.01/0.0/0.0/17-043/0009632), RECETOX RI project (CZ.02.1.01/0.0/0.0/16-013/0001761). NIB funded by Health Protection Research Unit (grant code NIHR200908). SAb, SF funded by Wellcome Trust (210758/Z/18/Z).

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1961

Quantum Mechanical Study of Atoms and Molecules

This paper, following a brief introduction, is divided into five parts. Part I outlines the theory of the molecular orbital method for the ground, ionized and excited states of molecules. Part II gives a brief summary of the interaction integrals and their tabulation. Part III outlines an automatic program designed for the computation of various states of molecules. Part IV gives examples of the study of ground, ionized and excited states of CO, BH and N2 where the program of automatic computation and molecular integrals have been utilized. Part V enlists some special problems of Molecular Quantum Mechanics are being tackled at New York University.

QUANTUM MECHANICS↗
NASA NTRS1972

RKR Franck-Condon factors for blue and ultraviolet transitions of some molecules of astrophysical interest and some comments on the interstellar abundance of CH, CH+ and SiH+.

RKR Franck-Condon factors for thirteen of the blue and ultraviolet transitions of AlF, AlO, BH, BD, CH, CD, CH(+), SiO and SiH(+) have been calculated. The interstellar abundances of CH, CH(+) and SiH(+) are discussed with regard to recent laboratory measurements, our Franck-Condon factors, and observations of the sun and the interstellar medium.

Liszt, H. S.↗
NASA NTRS1975

Slow X-ray bursts and flares with filament disruption

The data from OGO-5 and OSO-7 X-ray experiments have been compared with optical data from six chromospheric flares with filament disruption associated with slow thermal X-ray bursts. Filament activation accompanied by a slight X-ray enhancement precedes the first evidence of H-alpha flare by a few minutes. Rapid increase of the soft X-ray flux accompanies the phase of fastest expansion of the filament. Plateau or slow decay phases in the X-ray flux are associated with slowing and termination of filament expansion. The soft X-ray flux increases as F approaches (A + Bh)h, where h is the height of the disrupted prominence at any given time and A and B are constants. We suggest that the soft X-ray emission originates from a growing shell of roughly constant thickness of high-temperature plasma due to the compression of the coronal gas by the expanding prominence.

Roy, J.-R.↗
NASA NTRS1975

Two self-test methods applied to an inertial system problem

The paper describes two self-test procedures applied to the problem of estimating the biases in accelerometers and gyroscopes on an inertial platform. The first technique is the weighted sum-squared residual (WSSR) test, with which accelerator bias jumps are easily isolated, but gyro bias jumps are difficult to isolate. The WSSR method does not take full advantage of the knowledge of system dynamics. The other technique is a multiple hypothesis method developed by Buxbaum and Haddad (1969). It has the advantage of directly providing jump isolation information, but suffers from computational problems. It might be possible to use the WSSR to detect state jumps and then switch to the BH system for jump isolation and estimate compensation.

Willsky, A. S.↗
NASA NTRS1980

Electron-impact excitation of the singlet states of N2. I - The Birge-Hopfield system /b 1 pi u - X 1 Sigma g +/

Results of a study of the electron-impact excitation of the b 1 pi u state of N2, one of the singlet states thought to be excited by precipitating electrons in the auroral zones, and of its predissociation and radiative relaxation through the emission of the Birge-Hopfield band system (b 1 pi u - X 1 Sigma g +) are presented. A collimated electron beam was passed through N2 gas producing a variety of atomic states through dissociative excitation, and the radiation resulting from relaxation of these states was observed by VUV and visible-IR monochromators. Absolute emission cross sections for 11 Birge-Hopfield bands are obtained for energies from threshold to 500 eV, and used to calculate the absolute transition probabilities for BH(1, v-prime) bands and the variation of the electric dipole moment with internuclear distance. With the exception of the v-prime equals 1, 5 and 6 vibrational levels, all b 1 pi u levels are found to predissociate with a specific predissociation branching ratio greater than 0.99, representing a major source of nitrogen atoms.

Zipf, E. C.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Volatile/mobile trace elements in Bholghati howardite

Ag, Au, Bi, Cd, Co, Cs, Ga, In, Rb, Sb, Se, Te, Tl, U, and Zn by RNAA are determined in two kinds of material from the Bholghati howardite: a carbonaceous chondrite clast (BH-4) that originated by primary nebular condensation/accretion processes; whole-rock samples and clasts resulting from parent-body processes, especially igneous differentiation. Trace element contents in Bholghati whole-rock (matrix) samples and/or white eucritic clasts in it are high for an achondrite, and variable. These characteristics are indicative of random condensation of volcanic emanations admixed with preexisting eucrite, diogenite, and howardite layers in the HED parent body. Other HED samples show similar patterns, and the conclusion that these reflect extensive volcanism in an asteroidal-sized object is supported by other Consortium noble gas and cosmochronologic measurements.

Wang, Ming-Sheng↗
NASA NTRS1990

Noble gases in the howardites Bholghati and Kapoeta

Analyses of noble gases in whole rock samples of the howardites Bholghati and Kapoeta and grain-size separates of Kapoeta yield evidence for excesses of the Xe isotopes Xe-129 , Xe-131, Xe-132, Xe-134, and Xe-136 in a low-temperture component, similar to lunar excess fission Xe. Such a component may be able to provide chronometric information if the relative abundances of radioactive progenitors (I-129, Pu-244, and U-238) can be determined, but the isotopic spectra obtained are not sufficiently precise to do so. Eucritic clast BH-5 in Bholghati contains Xe produced in situ by the decay of Pu-244. Calculated fission Xe retention ages are 30-70 Ma after the formation of the solar system, consistent with the apparent presence of Sm-146 decay products. Both the clast and the matrix of Bholghati have K-Ar ages of about 2 Ga, suggesting a common thermal event at least that recently.

Swindle, T. D.↗
NASA NTRS1995

Physics of systems containing neutron stars

This grant deals with several topics related to the dynamics of systems containing a compact object. Most of our research in 1994 dealt with systems containing Neutron Stars (NS's), but we also addressed systems containing a Black Hole (BH) or a White Dwarf (WD) in situations relevant to NS systems. Among the systems were isolated regular pulsars, Millisecond Pulsars (MSP's) that are either Single (SMP's) or in a binary (BMP's) Low Mass X-Ray Binaries (LMX's) and Cataclysmic Variables (CV's). We also dealt with one aspect of NS structure, namely NS superfluidity. A large fraction of our research dealt with irradiation-driven winds from companions. These winds turned out to be of some importance in the evolution of LMXB's and MSP's, be they SMP's or BMP's. While their role during LMXB evolution (i.e. during the accretion phase) is not yet clear, they may play an important role in turning BMP's into SMP's and also in bringing about the formation of planets around MSP's.

Shaham, Jacob↗
NASA NTRS1994

Dynamics of massive black holes as a possible candidate of Galactic dark matter

If the dark halo of the Galaxy is comprised of massive black holes (MBHs), then those within approximately 1 kpc will spiral to the center, where they will interact with one another, forming binaries which contract, owing to further dynamical friction, and then possibly merge to become more massive objects by emission of gravitational radiation. If successive mergers would invariably lead, as has been proposed by various authors, to the formation of a very massive nucleus of 10(exp 8) solar mass, then the idea of MBHs as a dark matter candidate could be excluded on observational grounds, since the observed limit (or value) for a Galactic central black hole is approximately 10(exp 6.5) solar mass. But, if successive mergers are delayed or prevented by other processes, such as the gravitational slingshot or rocket effect of gravitational radiation, then a large mass accumulation will not occur. In order to resolve this issue, we perform detailed N-body simulations using a modfied Aarseth code to explore the dynamical behavior of the MBHs, and we find that for a 'best estimate' model of the Galaxy a runaway does not occur. The code treates the MBHs as subject to the primary gravitational forces of one another and to the smooth stellar distribution, as well as the secondary perturbations in their orbits due to another and to the smooth stellar distribution, as well as the secondary perturbations in their orbits due to dynamical friction and gravitational radiation. Instead of a runaway, three-body interactions between hard binaries and single MBHs eject massive objects before accumulation of more than a few units, so that typically the center will contain zero, one, or two MBHs. We study how the situation depends in detail on the mass per MBH, the rotation of the halo, the mass distribution within the Galaxy, and other parameters. A runaway will most sensitively depend on the ratio of initial (spheroid/halo) central mass densities and secondarily on the typical values for the mass per MBH, with the rough dividing line, using Galactic parameters, being M(sub BH) less than or = 10(exp 6.5) solar mass. Using parameters from Lacey & Ostriker (1985) and our most accurate model for Galaxy, no runaway occurs.

Xu, Guohong↗