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At least 379 records · Page 21

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DOE OSTI2022

Investigating preservation of stable isotope ratios in subfossil deep-sea proteinaceous coral skeletons as paleo-recorders of biogeochemical information over multimillennial timescales

Paleoproxy records in deep-sea proteinaceous coral skeletons can reconstruct past ocean conditions on centennial to millennial time scales. Commonly recovered subfossil specimens could potentially extend these archives through the Holocene. However, protein matrix stability and integrity of stable isotope proxies over multi-millennial timescales in such specimens have never been examined. Here we compare amino acid (AA) composition together with bulk and AA compound-specific carbon (δ 13 C) and nitrogen (δ 15 N) isotopes in live-collected and subfossil (~9.6–11.6 kyrs BP) Kulamanamana haumeaae deep-sea coral specimens from the central Pacific to understand the effects of long-duration benthic oxic exposure on primary coral chemistry. We find large coupled shifts in bulk δ 15 N (~7‰) and δ 13 C (~2‰) in the outermost portion (0–10 mm) of the subfossil coral, coincident with extensive alteration of the protein matrix. Microstructural changes in skeletal texture coincide with higher C/N ratios (+0.8) and isotope-based amino acid degradation parameters (e.g. ΣV ≥ 3), indicating extensive degradation of seawater-exposed gorgonin. However, interior gorgonin (>10 mm) retained amino acid molecular compositions (with exception of major Glycine loss) and bulk and amino acid-specific isotopic values that were similar to live-collected specimens. These results indicate that compound-specific isotope analysis of amino acids can reconstruct paleo-oceanographic biogeochemical and ecosystem information in subfossil corals beyond a clear diagenetic horizon, which is easily identifiable from an evaluation of C/N ratios together with the ΣV degradation proxy.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Triple oxygen and hydrogen stable isotope composition of hydroxyl water in Orgueil (CI-type) and Tagish Lake (C2-type) carbonaceous chondrites

The primitive carbonaceous chondrites are of interest to cosmochemical science because they contain relatively large amounts of ‘water’ (H 2 O and/or OH – ) within phyllosilicate minerals. This water is evidence for the accretion of ices by their parent planetesimals, and thus represents an archive of the isotopic compositions of H 2 O in the protoplanetary environments. Here, in this study, we used thermogravimetry-enabled laser spectroscopy (TGA-IRIS) analyses of the Orgueil and Tagish Lake meteorites to make δ 2 H, δ 18 O, and Δ′ 17 O measurements of the H 2 O and OH – contained in the different hydrous minerals that comprise each meteorite. In Orgueil, we measured mass-weighted averages of OH – in the saponite and serpentine phyllosilicate matrix to be δ 2 H = 192 ‰, δ 18 O = 1.5 ‰, which are unquestionably of extraterrestrial origin with Δ′ 17 O = 1.0 ‰. For Tagish Lake, analogous values of OH– in the saponite and serpentine phyllosilicate matrix are δ 2 H = 704 ‰, δ 18 O = 11.3 ‰, and are similarly unambiguously extraterrestrial with Δ′ 17 O = 0.82 ‰. We estimate that the parent H 2 O involved in aqueous alteration of Orgueil had δ 18 O value ≥ +23 ‰. In Orgueil, we interpret the phyllosilicate petrographic relationships, and the δ 18 O values of OH – in saponite and serpentine to indicate that saponite formed first, at a lower temperature by 35 to 53 °C than serpentine. This suggests that the Orgueil parent body experienced increasing temperature during the phase of active aqueous alteration (prograde) which set the δ 18 O OH values of the serpentine and saponite. In the case of Tagish Lake, serpentine formed at a lower temperature by 32 to 60 °C than saponite, for the simplest case with constant δ 18 O H2O values. If serpentine formed first, followed by saponite formation at 32 to 60 °C °C higher temperature, this suggests that Tagish Lake sample TL1 underwent prograde aqueous alteration as the parent body heated up. We find evidence that the parent H 2 O for Orgueil, Tagish Lake sample TL1, and Murchison (based on data from a previous study) may have had Δ′ 17 O values of >0.64 ‰.

Aqueous alteration↗

DOE OSTI2023

Energy-efficient cooperative resource allocation and task scheduling for Internet of Things environments

Offloading Internet of Things (IoT) tasks to the cloud for further processing might not always lead to an optimal execution time, particularly in situations such as resource contention, under-provisioning, over-provisioning, and fragmentation. In addition, dynamically optimizing the number of Virtual Machines (VMs) for resource scheduling in order to meet application requirements remains a major research challenge. Further, existing resource scheduling algorithms focus primarily on minimizing operational costs while maximizing resource sharing and utilization. Considering energy utilization as part of the resource allocation and scheduling process as an optimization objective for maintaining load balancing has often been neglected. To address these challenges and more, we propose a cooperative energy-aware resource allocation and scheduling strategy based on a Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) multi-criteria decision-making method. Here we used the Grid Workloads Archive dataset to evaluate our proposed approach named TOPREAL. Experimental results with respect to the allocation of VM resources when considering processing a large segment of tasks indicate that TOPREAL outperforms existing algorithms in terms of energy savings, with an average improvement of 40.25%, while maintaining an average improvement of 16.21% when it comes to execution time. Results also demonstrate that our method can save an average of 78.06 processing hours and 63,215kJ of energy when compared to existing scheduling algorithms. These results demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed model and the viability of using multi-criteria decision-making techniques such as TOPSIS to solve the resource allocation and scheduling problem in edge environments.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2022

A comparison of carbon impurities in pre- and post-melt uranium Part 1: Scanning electron microscopy analysis

Although C impurities in U have been studied for decades, fundamental questions regarding their incorporation, migration, and overall transformation during metal processing still exist. In two written Parts, we compare the chemical speciation, distribution, crystallography, and morphologies (size, shape, etc.) of carbon-containing impurities in U metal both before and after melting using high resolution analytical electron microscopy (AEM). This first Part demonstrates the variability of carbide inclusions in depleted U (DU) metal with respect to their chemical phases and morphologies as observed by scanning electron microscopy (SEM). Here, a variety of inclusion types, such as the pill-shaped U monocarbide (UC), previously only hypothesized, are summarized. Additionally, delineation between hopper-shaped U carbonitride U(C,N) and dendritic UC inclusions is discussed in relationship to archived literature.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2021

Best practices in catalysis: A perspective

Catalysis, from its roots in petrochemical refining and conversion, has emerged as a transdisciplinary field that now encompasses synthesis of materials and molecules that enable applications in energy conversion and storage, environmental remediation, medicine, plastics, and fertilizer production, among numerous others. A handful of disciplines can claim relevance and success over such an extended period of time and continue to claim a preeminent role in defining the state-of-the-art in science and technology. Syncretic and rapid advancements in formulation and spectroscopic characterization of materials and molecules useful as catalysts, high-level density functional and molecular orbital theory calculations, and a strong foundation in concepts of physical chemistry, thermodynamics, and chemical kinetics offer new and abundant opportunities at the present day for addressing the grand challenge of controlling chemical transformations using catalysis. Here, we examine what we have learned of concepts that underpin heterogeneous catalysis but more importantly, how we learned to archive our knowledge in context of a set of best practices and standards that have emerged in the course of our learnings—ones we seek to highlight herein. Our perspective emphasizes concepts in synthesis, characterization, kinetics, and theory, because these four elements combined enable description of molecular acts that happen on surfaces and how fast they occur. In revisiting best practices in heterogeneous catalysis in these sub-fields and in authorship and peer review we aspire to augment clarity, reproducibility, and rigor in the science and practice of catalysis.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2022

PDBx/mmCIF Ecosystem: Foundational Semantic Tools for Structural Biology

PDBx/mmCIF, Protein Data Bank Exchange (PDBx) macromolecular Crystallographic Information Framework (mmCIF), has become the data standard for structural biology. With its early roots in the domain of small-molecule crystallography, PDBx/mmCIF provides an extensible data representation that is used for deposition, archiving, remediation, and public dissemination of experimentally determined three-dimensional (3D) structures of biological macromolecules by the Worldwide Protein Data Bank (wwPDB, wwpdb.org). Extensions of PDBx/mmCIF are similarly used for computed structure models by ModelArchive (modelarchive.org), integrative/hybrid structures by PDB-Dev (pdb-dev.wwpdb.org), small angle scattering data by Small Angle Scattering Biological Data Bank SASBDB (sasbdb.org), and for models computed generated with the AlphaFold 2.0 deep learning software suite (alphafold.ebi.ac.uk). Community-driven development of PDBx/mmCIF spans three decades, involving contributions from researchers, software and methods developers in structural sciences, data repository providers, scientific publishers, and professional societies. Having a semantically rich and extensible data framework for representing a wide range of structural biology experimental and computational results, combined with expertly curated 3D biostructure data sets in public repositories, accelerates the pace of scientific discovery. Herein, we describe the architecture of the PDBx/mmCIF data standard, tools used to maintain representations of the data standard, governance, and processes by which data content standards are extended, plus community tools/software libraries available for processing and checking the integrity of PDBx/mmCIF data. Use cases exemplify how the members of the Worldwide Protein Data Bank have used PDBx/mmCIF as the foundation for its pipeline for delivering Findable, Accessible, Interoperable, and Reusable (FAIR) data to many millions of users worldwide.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

rcsb-api : Python Toolkit for Streamlining Access to RCSB Protein Data Bank APIs

The Protein Data Bank (PDB) was founded in 1971 as the first open-access digital data resource in biology to serve as the single global archive for three-dimensional (3D) macromolecular structure data. Current PDB holdings exceed 230,000 experimentally determined structures of proteins, nucleic acids, viruses, and macromolecular machines. The RCSB Protein Data Bank RCSB.org research-focused web portal facilitates search, analyses, and visualization of every PDB structure along with more than one million Computed Structure Models from AlphaFold DB and the ModelArchive. It is powered by a set of publicly available Application Programming Interfaces (APIs) that both support RCSB.org users and provide programmatic access to PDB data. Given the breadth and levels of granularity encompassed in this rich data collection, efficiently accessing the information programmatically may be challenging for new users. RCSB PDB has developed a Python software package, rcsb-api , that facilitates easy and efficient use of RCSB PDB APIs within a Python environment. This software tool is designed to streamline access to the extensive corpus of data housed within the PDB, enabling researchers to search, retrieve, and analyze 3D biostructure data seamlessly. Its use will accelerate research in structural biology, molecular biology and biochemistry, drug discovery, and bioinformatics by providing more efficient tools for data integration and analysis. The new toolkit is available on GitHub (github.com/rcsb/py-rcsb-api) and published to the public Python package repository (PyPI) to foster wider usage and support basic and applied research in fundamental biology, biomedicine, and the energy sciences.

FAIR principles↗

DOE OSTI2025

Metallic fuel transient fuel-cladding interface liquefaction model assessment platform enabled by integrating BISON with databases

A novel platform has been developed within the BISON fuel performance code to assess models of fuel-cladding interface liquefaction for sodium-cooled fast reactor (SFR) metallic fuels. Here, this platform is crucial because liquefaction at the fuel-cladding interface significantly impacts fuel performance and may compromise fuel pin integrity during transient events. To ensure accurate predictions, the platform integrates data collected during the Integral Fast Reactor (IFR) program, now archived in metallic fuel databases. This integration supports verification and validation (V&V) of the models in BISON. Leveraging the extensive US experience with metallic fuel liquefaction and the collections of preserved legacy data, the platform serves as a powerful tool for evaluating existing models and advancing the development of new ones.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Automated fault detection and diagnosis deployment Internet of Things solution for building energy system

The building sector is the highest energy consumer and ranks first in terms of carbon emissions among all sectors. To address these issues, decarbonization and electrification in the building energy sector are two critical missions of the new US administration. For decarbonization, the new administration has set a target to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 50–52% by 2030 and targeting a carbon-neutral economy by 2050. For electrification, the goal is to achieve 100% clean electricity by 2035. Such decarbonization and electrification in the building sector require that energy consumption in buildings be reduced significantly. Therefore, the building sector must continuously adopt new technologies to achieve its energy and carbon emission goals. One of the most fundamental technologies is the Internet of Things (IoT). IoT has proven to be an effective solution for the building domain, including building information/energy modeling, smart buildings, etc. Although much progress has been made in the development of IoT-based building energy systems, there is still a lack of reliable, scalable, and affordable IoT-based automated fault and degradation diagnostic (AFDD) solutions. Such solutions would enable deployment of advanced algorithms into real systems to archive the projected energy benefits. Here, this study reviews existing IoT solutions developed for building energy–related application and developed a simple but effective AFDD IoT deployment solution, including developing a suitable IoT architecture and conducting easy and scalable deployment by leveraging a common cloud-based IoT service.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Microstructure-based prediction of thermal aging strength reduction factors for grade 91 ferritic-martensitic steel

This study aimed to develop a microstructure-based mechanistic approach to address the long-term thermal aging effect on yield stress and ultimate tensile strength and to provide a physical basis for developing thermal aging factors for G91 for a design life of 60 years. Several heats of G91 steel were examined. Controlled aging experiments were conducted on two heats at temperatures of 550, 600, and 650 °C for times up to ~64,000 h. Specimens were also taken from archived creep-tested specimens of G91 and from a tube removed from the Kingston coal-fired power plant to obtain data that cover a wide range of temperatures and for aging times up to 155,000 h. Thermal aging caused significant subgrain recovery, coarsening of M 23 C 6 carbides at subgrain boundaries and MX carbonitrides within subgrains. The intermetallic Laves phase forms during aging and grows rapidly. The growth rate of the subgrain width and MX mean size during thermal aging were described by kinetic models. Thermal aging results in the reductions in the yield stress and the ultimate tensile strength of G91. The effects of thermal aging on the reductions in yield stress and ultimate tensile strength were well described by the microstructure-strength model that considers three superimposed strengthening mechanisms, namely, sub-boundary strengthening, MX precipitation hardening, and Mo solid solution strengthening. Furthermore, the model was independently validated by the ASME Code values and is being used by the ASME to develop the aging-induced strength reduction factors for G91 steel for a design life of 60 years.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2020

Unrecognized Sources of Uncertainties ( USU ) in Experimental Nuclear Data

Evaluated nuclear data uncertainties reported in the literature or archived in data libraries are often perceived as unrealistic, most often because they are thought to be too small. The impact of this issue in applied nuclear science has been discussed widely in recent years. Commonly suggested causes are: poor estimates of specific error components, neglect of uncertainty correlations, and overlooked known error sources. However, instances have been reported where very careful, objective assessments of all known error sources have been made with realistic error magnitudes and correlations provided, yet the resulting evaluated uncertainties still appear to be inconsistent with observed scatter of predicted mean values. These discrepancies might be attributed to significant unrecognized sources of uncertainty ( USU ) that limit the accuracy to which these physical quantities can be determined. The objective of our work reported herein has been to develop qualitative and quantitative procedures for revealing and including USU estimates in nuclear data evaluations involving experimental input data. This paper identifies several specific clues that can be explored by evaluators in identifying the existence of USU . It then describes numerical procedures we have introduced to generate quantitative estimates of USU magnitudes. Key requirements for these procedures to be viable are that sufficient numbers of data points be available, for statistical reasons, and that additional supporting information about the measurements be provided by the experimenters. Several realistic examples are described here to illustrate these procedures and demonstrate their outcomes and limitations. Our work strongly supports the view that USU is an important issue in nuclear data evaluation, with significant consequences for applications, and that this topic warrants further investigation by the nuclear science community.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Status of the data acquisition, trigger, and slow control systems of the Mu2e experiment at Fermilab

The Mu2e experiment at the Fermilab will search for a coherent neutrinoless conversion of a muon into an electron in the field of an aluminum nucleus with a sensitivity improvement by a factor of 10,000 over existing limits. In this work, the Mu2e Trigger and Data Acquisition System (TDAQ) uses otsdaq framework as the online Data Acquisition System (DAQ) solution. Developed at Fermilab, otsdaq integrates several framework components — an artdaq-based DAQ, an art-based event processing, and an EPICS-based detector control system (DCS), and provides a uniform multi-user interface to its components through a web browser. Data streams from the Mu2e tracker and calorimeter are handled by the artdaq-based DAQ and processed by a one-level software trigger implemented within the art framework. Events accepted by the trigger have their data combined, post-trigger, with the separately read out data from the Mu2e Cosmic Ray Veto system. Foundation of the Mu2e DCS, EPICS – an Experimental Physics and Industrial Control System – is an open-source platform for monitoring, controlling, alarming, and archiving. A prototype of the TDAQ and the DCS systems has been built and tested over the last three years at Fermilab’s Feynman Computing Center, and now the production system installation is underway. This work presents their status and focus on the installation plans and procedures for racks, workstations, network switches, gateway computers, DAQ hardware, slow controls implementation, and testing.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2024

Measurement of seasonal variations of the NSLS-II circumference and energy

Routine beam-based characterization of the NSLS-II storage ring indicated probable seasonal variations of the ring circumference and energy. We arranged regular direct measurements of the ring circumference during 2023 and compared the results with the archived data of the magnet and undulator settings. A clear correlation between the ring circumference and energy was observed. These seasonal variations of the ring energy are found to be the main reason for regular lattice corrections required to keep the machine performance stable for user operations. Finally, the measurement techniques and results are discussed in this article.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2022

Spatially calibrating polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) as proxies of area burned by vegetation fires: Insights from comparisons of historical data and sedimentary PAH fluxes

Many regions worldwide have experienced increasing wildfire activity in recent years and climate changes are predicted to result in more frequent and severe fires. Reconstruction of past fire activity offers paleoenvironmental context for modern and future burning. Pyrogenic polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) have been increasingly used as a molecular biomarker for fire occurrence in the paleorecord and offer opportunity for nuanced reconstructions of fire characteristics. A suite of PAHs are produced during combustion, and the emission amount and assemblage is influenced by many variables including fuel type, fire temperature, and oxygen availability. Despite recent advances in understanding the controls and taphonomy of these biomass burning markers, the spatial scale of this proxy is unknown. In this paper, measurements of PAH fluxes preserved in a lake sediment archive from the Sierra Nevada, California were compared with a historical geographic information system dataset of area burned up to 150 km distance from the lake to determine the spatial scales for which these biomarkers are reliable proxies of burning. Comparisons of PAH fluxes with charcoal accumulation rates in the same sediments suggest that pyrogenic particulate transport modulates low to mid-molecular weight PAHs via adsorption. Overall, the results indicate that PAH records integrate a combination of spatial signals of area burned and measurement of individual PAHs may enable cross-scale paleofire reconstructions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Impact of recent ENDF nuclear data update, high initial enrichment and high burnup fuel on critical experiments applicability determination via the integral index c k for burnup credit validation

In 2012, NUREG/CR-7109 reported on the validation of burnup credit calculations involving major and minor actinides and major fission products which was investigated for pressurized and boiling water reactor (PWR and BWR) fuel enrichments up to 5 wt% 235 U and assembly-average burnups up to 60 GWd/MTU. Recently, there has been interest in increasing the maximum enrichment used in PWR fuel as high as 8 wt% 235 U and correspondingly increasing the maximum assembly-average burnups to approximately 75 GWd/MTU. These proposed increases in enrichment and burnup necessitate reinvestigation of the validation basis for k eff calculations for this expanded application space. Additionally, the 2012 study was performed by using the Evaluated Nuclear Data File (ENDF)/B-VII.0 nuclear data with the SCALE 6 covariance library, and the effects of using the newly released ENDF/B-VII.1 and ENDF/B-VIII.0 nuclear data and covariance libraries should be evaluated. In this work, published in NUREG/CR-7309 in 2025, the validation assessment was performed consistently with NUREG/CR-7109: modeling irradiated fuel assemblies in the Generic Burnup Credit (GBC)-32 cask defined in NUREG/CR-6747. The TSUNAMI-3D sequence was used to generate sensitivity data for the application model, and the data were compared with sensitivity data from select benchmark models. The integral parameter c k is the metric of similarity used in this study and is consistent with NUREG/CR-7109, where a c k value in excess of 0.8 indicates sufficient similarity for use in validation. A new set of benchmark experiments with sensitivity data has been assembled for this effort. The number of experiments with available sensitivity data is now 2,104, compared to 474 in NUREG/CR-7109. This increase was facilitated by the efforts of the Nuclear Energy Agency to generate sensitivity data for a majority of the experiments in the International Criticality Safety Benchmark Evaluation Project (ICSBEP) Handbook to supplement the data available in the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) Verified, Archived Library of Inputs and Data (VALID). The complete set of benchmarks considered here includes experiments for low-enriched uranium (LEU), intermediate enriched uranium (IEU), and a mixture of uranium and plutonium (MIX) from the ICSBEP Handbook and VALID, as well as ORNL models of the Haut Taux de Combustion (HTC) experiments and other potentially relevant models not included in VALID. The updated similarity study shows that none of the extended burnup and higher enrichment combinations considered show a significant decrease in the number of potentially applicable experiments, meaning sufficient critical experiments exist for the validation of BUC criticality safety calculations, with initial enrichments up to 8 wt% 235 U and burnups up to 80 GWd/MTU. Additionally, both the ENDF/B-VII.1 and ENDF/B-VIII.0 nuclear data libraries can be used for validation since the number of critical experiments applicable for validation increases for most cases with the most recent nuclear data compared to the previous one. As in previous BUC validation studies, the French HTC experiments are the most similar in a majority of the application cases studied, especially from representative discharge burnups ranging from 40 to 80 GWd/MTU. In conclusion, these results match the conclusions presented in NUREG/CR-7109 regarding validation of the primary actinides in BUC analyses.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Graphene Oxide Nanoribbons for High Early-Strength Cement Concrete

Longitudinal oxidative unzipping of the outer walls of multiwalled carbon nanotubes (MWCNTs) yields graphene oxide nanoribbons (GONRs), which exhibit greater open surface area and functional edge content than MWCNTs. This paper presents a study of the nano-amendment of Portland cement concrete with GONRs in concentrations between 0.05% (in weight of cement, wt%) and 0.0005 wt%, thus up to two orders of magnitude lower than that reported as lower-bound in the archival literature. The dispersibility in aqueous solution as a function of GONR concentration and oxygen weight content (O%) was assessed through dynamic light scattering (DLS) and zeta potential analysis. The results indicated that less effective suspensions were obtained for 0.05 wt% of GONRs and 22.7 O%. Therefore, GONR water suspensions with 30-40% O% were used to manufacture 50 mm × 100 mm cylindrical concrete specimens. After 7 days of curing, results from uniaxial compression tests using four specimens per configuration (MWCNT concentration and O%) showed that the incorporation of GONRs resulted in an average increase in compressive strength up to 45%. Consistent with the DLS and compression test results, SEM micrographs showed well-dispersed GONRs together with accelerated and preferential formation of calcium silicate hydrates (C-S-H) for all GONR concentrations. The results indicate, for the first time, that the incorporation of very small concentrations (as low as 0.0005 wt%) of well-dispersed GONR amendments can significantly enhance the early-age concrete strength. However, such enhancement became insignificant after 28 days of curing.

cement↗

DOE OSTI2022

Holocene paleoclimate change in the western US: The importance of chronology in discerning patterns and drivers

We report sediment in lakes and meadows forms a powerful archive that can be used to reconstruct environmental change through time. Reconstructions of lake level, of chemical, biological, and hydrological conditions, and of surrounding vegetation provide detailed information about past climate conditions, both locally and regionally. Indeed, most of our current knowledge of centennial- to millennial-scale climate variability in the arid western United States, where information about past hydroclimate is particularly important, comes from such sediment-based reconstructions. The pressing need for robust, precise predictions of future conditions is a significant motivation for paleoclimate science, and current research questions frequently require Holocene reconstructions to be resolved at sub-centennial timescales. Increasingly, regional syntheses seek to identify synoptic-scale patterns similar to those defined from modern observations (seasonal, interannual, multi-decadal, etc.) or to compare with the output of climate model simulations. However, the age control on existing records, especially those more than about 20 years old, is often sufficient only for millennial-scale interpretation. Here we assess the age control for 84 published and unpublished records from lakes and meadows in the Great Basin, California, and desert southwest, and use Bayesian modeling to evaluate the 95% uncertainty ranges for the 42 best-dated records. In the Late Holocene, about half of the 42 records have <400-year mean uncertainty ranges; however, high-precision age control is especially critical for young records, used to develop an accurate understanding of a proxy’s response to known climate variations. In the Middle Holocene, records vary from 400 to >800-year mean uncertainty and records of the Early Holocene have 600- to >1400-year mean uncertainty ranges. We find that the largest control on modeled uncertainties is dating density, with at least 2 dates/kyr being optimal and suggest obtaining “range-finder” dates at the onset of a study to better predict the total number of dates needed for an adequate age model. Such a density avoids a commonly observed phenomenon of significant peaks in uncertainty arising in gaps between age control points. Analysis of the uncertainties associated with proxy shifts reveal that more than half are >400 years. Although such large uncertainties currently prevent sub-centennial interpretations in most cases, increased dating density, strategic use of limited funds (including budgeting for a 2 date/kyr minimum at the proposal stage), construction of age-depth models with Bayesian methods, and critical evaluation of chronological uncertainty will shed light on past climate variability at finer timescales, enhancing our understanding of global and regional drivers of western U.S. climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

An uncertainty-focused database approach to extract spatiotemporal trends from qualitative and discontinuous lake-status histories

Changes in lake status are often interpreted as palaeoclimate indicators due to their dependence on precipitation and evaporation. The Global Lake Status Database (GLSDB) has since long provided a standardised synopsis of qualitative lake status over the last 30,000 14C years. Potential sources of uncertainty however are not recorded in the GLSDB. Here we present an updated and improved relational-database framework that incorporates uncertainty in both chronology and the interpretation of palaeoenvironmental data. The database uses peer-reviewed palaeolimnological studies to produce a consensus on qualitative lake-status histories, whose chronologies are revised and standardized through the recalibration of radiocarbon dates and the application of Bayesian age-depth modelling for stratigraphic archives. Quantitative information on absolute water-level elevation is preserved if available from geomorphological sources. We also propose a new probabilistic analytical framework that accounts for these uncertainties to reconstruct synoptic, integrated environmental signals. The process is based on a Monte Carlo algorithm that iteratively samples individual lake-status histories within the limits of their uncertainties to produce many possible scenarios. We then use Recursively-Subtracted Empirical Orthogonal Function analysis to extract dominant patterns of lake-status variability from these scenarios. As a proof of concept, we apply this framework to 67 sites in eastern and southern Africa whose lake-status histories cover part of the late Pleistocene and/or Holocene. We show that, despite the sometimes large temporal and interpretation uncertainties, and the inclusion of highly discontinuous lake-status time series, identifying the major known millennial-scale climatic phases during the last 20,000 years is possible. Our framework was also able to identify an antiphased response between the lake basins in eastern and interior southern Africa to these changes. Here, we propose that our new database and methodology framework serves as a template for efficient lake-status data synthesis, encourages the incorporation of lake-status data in palaeoclimate syntheses, and expands the possibilities for the use of such data in the evaluation of climate models.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗