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At least 379 records · Page 21
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Coupling Microstructural Evolution Simulations to Material Property Degradation Predictions for Plasma-Facing Materials

Reliable material performance is required for plasma-facing material (PFM) candidates. Previous research has shown that plasma and neutron radiation exposure induces microstructural changes in PFMs; changes in thermal and electrical conductivities and in material hardening and embrittlement were also observed after neutron irradiation. These material property changes will negatively impact the performance of the PFMs in a fusion reactor. Despite the well-known connection between material microstructure, properties, and performance, there is a need for validated modeling capabilities connecting PFM property degradation with microstructural evolution under fusion-relevant conditions. We are developing a simulation capability to couple plasma-induced microstructural evolution to material property degradation. Our approach relies on deliberate mapping between individual simulation models and experimental characterization for validation. The open-source Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE) software was used for this simulation capability development. A MOOSE phase-field model was coupled with the cluster dynamics code, Xolotl, to predict microstructural evolution. Microstructure characterization techniques, including scanning electron microscopy (SEM), transmission electron microscopy (TEM), and laser scanning confocal microscopy (LSCM) are used to validate these microstructural evolution simulations. Calculation of thermal and electrical conductivities with first principles simulations was performed for bulk material and for grain boundaries; these results are used within MOOSE models to calculate effective thermal and electrical conductivities as a function of grain characteristics. Thermoreflectance and four-probe techniques were employed to measure the thermal and electrical conductivities, respectively. A MOOSE crystal plasticity model was adapted to predict microstructure-sensitive deformation behavior, and X-ray diffraction (XRD) was used to collect bulk dislocation density data for validation. After individual simulation validation, these models are coupled to predict material property changes resulting from plasma exposure. We focused here on an experimental design to emphasize the separate effects of moderate thermal loads and plasma exposure using tungsten. Annealing of tungsten was performed under a protective environment for temperatures ranging from 500 C to 1500 C. The plasma exposure was completed in the Tritium Plasma Experiment at Idaho National Laboratory under a deuterium flux of 1e22 D/m^2-s. This incremental approach is employed to build confidence in the modeling capability: separate-effects tests ensure that the models capture key mechanisms from single environmental conditions before predicting PFM property degradation under combined loads. We will show our early results from coupling these simulation models to predict PFM property changes from microstructural evolution. Comparisons of the simulation results with preliminary validation data will be discussed.

36 - MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Connect microstructure evolution to property degradation with validated simulation

Reliable material performance is required for plasma-facing material (PFM) candidates. Previous research has shown that plasma and neutron radiation exposure induces microstructural changes in PFMs; changes in thermal and electrical conductivities and in material hardening and embrittlement were also observed after neutron irradiation. These material property changes will negatively impact the performance of the PFMs in a fusion reactor. Despite the well-known connection between material microstructure, properties, and performance, there is a need for validated modeling capabilities connecting PFM property degradation with microstructural evolution under fusion-relevant conditions. We are developing a simulation capability to couple plasma-induced microstructural evolution to material property degradation. Our approach relies on deliberate mapping between individual simulation models and experimental characterization for validation. The open-source Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE) software was used for this simulation capability development. A MOOSE phase-field model was coupled with the cluster dynamics code, Xolotl, to predict microstructural evolution. Microstructure characterization techniques, including scanning electron microscopy (SEM), transmission electron microscopy (TEM), and laser scanning confocal microscopy (LSCM) are used to validate these microstructural evolution simulations. Calculation of thermal and electrical conductivities with first principles simulations was performed for bulk material and for grain boundaries; these results are used within MOOSE models to calculate effective thermal and electrical conductivities as a function of grain characteristics. Thermoreflectance and four-probe techniques were employed to measure the thermal and electrical conductivities, respectively. A MOOSE crystal plasticity model was adapted to predict microstructure-sensitive deformation behavior, and X-ray diffraction (XRD) was used to collect bulk dislocation density data for validation. After individual simulation validation, these models are coupled to predict material property changes resulting from plasma exposure. We focused here on an experimental design to emphasize the separate effects of moderate thermal loads and plasma exposure using tungsten. Annealing of tungsten was performed under a protective environment for temperatures ranging from 500$^o$C to 1500$^o$C. The plasma exposure was completed in the Tritium Plasma Experiment at Idaho National Laboratory under a deuterium flux of 1e22 $\frac{D}{m^2s}$. This incremental approach is employed to build confidence in the modeling capability: separate-effects tests ensure that the models capture key mechanisms from single environmental conditions before predicting PFM property degradation under combined loads. We will show our early results from coupling these simulation models to predict PFM property changes from microstructural evolution. Comparisons of the simulation results with preliminary validation data will be discussed.

36 - MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Ab initio translationally invariant nucleon-nucleus optical potentials

We combine the ab initio symmetry-adapted no-core shell model (SA-NCSM) with the single-particle Green's function approach to construct optical potentials rooted in first principles. Specifically, we show that total cross sections and phase shifts for neutron elastic scattering from a 4 He target with projectile energies between 0.5 and 10 MeV closely reproduce the experiment. In addition, we discuss an important new development that resolves a long-standing issue with spurious center-of-mass motion in the Green's function formalism for many-body approaches. Furthermore, the new development opens a path for first-principle predictions of cross sections for elastic scattering of single-nucleon projectiles, nucleon capture, and deuteron breakup reactions, feasible for a broad range of open-shell spherical and deformed nuclei in the SA-NCSM approach.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Constraining Physical Models at Gigabar Pressures

High-energy-density (HED) experiments in convergent geometry are able to test physical models at pressures beyond hundreds of millions of atmospheres. The measurements from these experiments are generally highly integrated and require unique analysis techniques to procure quantitative information. This work describes a methodology to constrain the physics in convergent HED experiments by adapting the methods common to many other fields of physics. As an example, a mechanical model of an imploding shell is constrained by data from a thin-shelled direct-drive exploding-pusher experiment on the OMEGA Laser System using Bayesian inference, resulting in the reconstruction of the shell dynamics and energy transfer during the implosion. The model is tested by analyzing synthetic data from a 1-D hydrodynamics code and is sampled using a Markov chain Monte Carlo to generate the posterior distributions of the model parameters. The goal of this work is to demonstrate a general methodology that can be used to draw conclusions from a wide variety of HED experiments.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Progress Towards the Validation of a new RELAP5-3D model of the High Temperature Test Facility

Validation is a key step in the development of any type of systems model. As the next generation of reactors approaches, the need for codes that have been validated for these new types of systems continues to grow. An example of a prominent option is the Reactor Excursion Leak Analysis Program (RELAP5-3D), developed by Idaho National Laboratory. This code was developed for the purpose of systems level thermal-hydraulic modeling of light water reactors (LWRS) and postulated transients that can occur in LWRS.RELAP5-3D has been substantially validated against LWR data. Due to its long history as a reactor safety analysis tool, there has been an effort to adapt RELAP5-3D for the purposes of advanced reactor concepts such as prismatic high-temperature gas-cooled reactors (HTGRs). However, RELAP5-3D has not nearly been validated and verified for HTGRs to the degree of LWRs, warranting verification and validation opportunities with computational benchmarks and existing experimental facilities. Examples of such facilities include the modular high-temperature gas-cooled reactor (MHTGR) 350 and the high temperature engineering test reactor (HTTR) from Japan. The MHTGR 350 is a benchmark design concept for code-to-code verification purposes; therefore, it does not provide any experimental data for validation opportunities The HTTR provides useful multiphysics validation data but does not have the in-core instruments to generate thermal-hydraulic experimental data to help with RELAP5-3D validation. Consequently, a facility that could provide key in-core temperatures for thermal-hydraulic validation was still needed. The High Temperature Test Facility (HTTF) is an integral effects facility for HTGR thermal hydraulics developed and operated by Oregon State University. HTTF represents ¼ length scale of the General Atomics MHTGR and is rated for a total power of 2.2 MW. Axially, the core consists of an upper and lower reflector and 10 blocks, numbered from bottom to top (Block 1 is right above lower reflector). The core is heated via graphite resistive heater rods, with respective channels distributed throughout the core. The primary coolant is helium and heat can radiate out of the core to the reactor cavity cooling system (RCCS), which is cooled by water. The primary purpose of the facility is to investigate pressurized conduction cooldown (PCC) and depressurized conduction cooldown (DCC) transients, which are also referred to as the pressurized and depressurized loss of forced cooling respectively. Two experiments were chosen to perform the validation study with a RELAP5-3D model of HTTF. These experiments are PG-27 (PCC) and PG-29 (DCC). These were chosen based off of the quality of available experimental data before and during the experiment which led to their inclusion in the HTGR Thermal Hydraulics Benchmark.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Tracking seasonal variability in plant traits from spaceborne PRISMA and NEON AOP across forest types and ecoregions

Plant traits serve as critical indicators of how plants adapt to environmental changes and influence ecosystem functions. While airborne hyperspectral remote sensing effectively maps plant traits through detailed reflectance properties, it is limited by cost and scale, making large-scale and temporal studies challenging. The recently launched spaceborne hyperspectral imager, PRecursore IperSpettrale della Missione Applicativa (PRISMA), offers frequent, large scale and high-fidelity observations on a spatial resolution of 30 m and a revisit time of around 29 days, making it suitable for large-scale seasonal trait mapping. However, their potential remains largely unexplored. This study developed a multi-stage framework by leveraging the PRISMA spaceborne hyperspectral data and National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON) Airborne Observation Platform (AOP) hyperspectral data to investigate the seasonal dynamics of four key plant traits — chlorophyll content, carotenoid content, equivalent water thickness, and nitrogen content — across eleven NEON sites representing diverse forest types and ecoregions in the contiguous U.S. Our results demonstrated that PRISMA hyperspectral data can reliably track seasonal variability in plant traits, achieving overall R 2 values ranging from 0.78 to 0.88 and normalized root mean square error (NRMSE) values ranging from 5.4% to 8.4% for the four traits. Seasonal patterns revealed bell-shaped trajectories for chlorophyll and carotenoids, while equivalent water thickness decreased steadily across most sites, driven by structural changes during leaf maturation and senescence. Nitrogen content exhibited less pronounced seasonal variation but followed expected nutrient resorption patterns. Analysis of environmental drivers showed that seasonal variability is primarily controlled by solar radiation and day length in northern sites, vapor pressure in semi-arid regions, and temperature in mid-southeastern sites. Spatial variability, meanwhile, was primarily driven by soil properties, particularly during the peak growing season. However, the influence of soil variables slightly declines toward the end of the season at several sites, as climatic factors become more prominent. This study highlights the capability of PRISMA, and potentially other similar spaceborne hyperspectral data for large-scale, time-series plant trait mapping and provides valuable insights into the interactions between plant traits and environmental factors. In conclusion, these findings contribute to advancing our understanding of plant functional ecology and improving predictions of ecosystem responses to environmental changes.

Environmental drivers↗
DOE OSTI2023

New insights into backbending in the symmetry-adapted shell-model framework

Here we provide insights into the backbending phenomenon within the symmetry-adapted framework which naturally describes the intrinsic deformation of atomic nuclei. For 20 Ne, the canonical example of backbending in light nuclei, the ab initio symmetry-adapted no-core shell model shows that while the energy spectrum replicates the backbending from experimental energies under the rotor-model assumption, there is no change in the intrinsic deformation or intrinsic spin of the yrast band around the backbend. For the traditional example of 48 Cr, computed in the valence shell with empirical interactions, we confirm a high-spin nucleus that is effectively near-spherical, in agreement with previous models. However, we find that this spherical distribution results, on average, from an almost equal mixing of deformed prolate shapes with deformed oblate shapes. Microscopic calculations confirm the importance of spin alignment and configuration mixing, but surprisingly unveil no anomalous increase in moment of inertia. Furthermore, this finding opens the path toward further understanding the rotational behavior and moment of inertia of medium-mass nuclei.

20 ≤ A ≤ 38↗
DOE OSTI2022

SNICAR-ADv4: a physically based radiative transfer model to represent the spectral albedo of glacier ice

Abstract. Accurate modeling of cryospheric surface albedo is essential for our understanding of climate change as snow and ice surfaces regulate the global radiative budget and sea-level through their albedo and mass balance. Although significant progress has been made using physical principles to represent the dynamic albedo of snow, models of glacier ice albedo tend to be heavily parameterized and not explicitly connected with physical properties that govern albedo, such as the number and size of air bubbles, specific surface area (SSA), presence of abiotic and biotic light absorbing constituents (LACs), and characteristics of any overlying snow. Here, we introduce SNICAR-ADv4, an extension of the multi-layer two-stream delta-Eddington radiative transfer model with the adding–doubling solver that has been previously applied to represent snow and sea-ice spectral albedo. SNICAR-ADv4 treats spectrally resolved Fresnel reflectance and transmittance between overlying snow and higher-density glacier ice, scattering by air bubbles of varying sizes, and numerous types of LACs. SNICAR-ADv4 simulates a wide range of clean snow and ice broadband albedo (BBA), ranging from 0.88 for (30 µm) fine-grain snow to 0.03 for bare and bubble-free ice under direct light. Our results indicate that representing ice with a density of 650 kg m−3 as snow with no refractive Fresnel layer, as done previously, generally overestimates the BBA by an average of 0.058. However, because most naturally occurring ice surfaces are roughened “white ice”, we recommend modeling a thin snow layer over bare ice simulations. We find optimal agreement with measurements by representing cryospheric media with densities less than 650 kg m−3 as snow and larger-density media as bubbly ice with a Fresnel layer. SNICAR-ADv4 also simulates the non-linear albedo impacts from LACs with changing ice SSA, with peak impact per unit mass of LACs near SSAs of 0.1–0.01 m2 kg−1. For bare, bubble-free ice, LACs actually increase the albedo. SNICAR-ADv4 represents smooth transitions between snow, firn, and ice surfaces and accurately reproduces measured spectral albedos of a variety of glacier surfaces. This work paves the way for adapting SNICAR-ADv4 to be used in land ice model components of Earth system models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Thermal neutron scattering cross sections for amorphous carbon

Carbon materials are commonly found in both nuclear reactors and experimental systems. Various carbon structures occur in nuclear applications ranging from crystalline and nuclear graphite to the amorphous carbon seen in next-generation advanced reactor designs. Amorphous carbon is based on a randomized graphite-like structure and offers the unique ability to disperse impurities throughout the bulk composition. A graphite-like amorphous carbon system was modeled using the classical molecular dynamics (MD) code LAMMPS (Large-scale Atomic/Molecular Massively Parallel Simulator). An improved version of the temperature-dependent Adaptive Intermolecular Reactive Empirical Bond Order (AIREBO) potential was used to model the carbon-carbon atomic interactions for the temperature at 300 K along with densities 1.60, 1.70, 1.85, and 2.23 g/cm{sup 3}. From the normalized velocity autocorrelation function (VACF), the phonon density of state (DOS) was then calculated as the Fourier transform of the normalized VACF. This DOS was then used as the primary input for the evaluation of the thermal scattering law (TSL, i.e. S(α,β)) and associated neutron thermal scattering cross sections. The TSL was analyzed using the Full Law Analysis Scattering System Hub (FLASSH). The amorphous structure results in shifts of the phonon DOS to lower energy modes than typically displayed for ideal crystalline graphite. This impact on the DOS is directly reflected in the TSL. Furthermore, the typical optical peak at 0.25 eV for the ideal graphite disappears for amorphous carbon, in good agreement with the expected structure. (authors)

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Warm Jupiter Transiting an M Dwarf: A TESS Single-transit Event Confirmed with the Habitable-zone Planet Finder

We confirm the planetary nature of a warm Jupiter transiting the early M dwarf TOI-1899 using a combination of available TESS photometry; high-precision, near-infrared spectroscopy with the Habitable-zone Planet Finder; and speckle and adaptive optics imaging. The data reveal a transiting companion on an ∼29 day orbit with a mass and radius of 0.66±0.07 M{sub J} and 1.15{sub −0.05}{sup +0.04} R{sub J}, respectively. The star, TOI-1899, is the lowest-mass star known to host a transiting warm Jupiter, and we discuss the follow-up opportunities afforded by a warm (T{sub eq}∼362 K) gas giant orbiting an M0 star. Our observations reveal that TOI-1899.01 is a puffy warm Jupiter, and we suggest additional transit observations to both refine the orbit and constrain the true dilution observed in TESS.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI1975

Nuclear Safety [Vol. 16, No. 1, January-February 1975]

Nuclear Safety covers significant developments in the field of nuclear safety. The scope is limited to topics relevant to the analysis and control of hazards associated with nuclear energy, operations involving fissionable materials, and the products of nuclear fission and their effects on the environment. Primary emphasis is on safety in reactor design, construction, and operation; however, safety considerations in regard to the entire fuel cycle, including fuel fabrication, spent-fuel processing, nuclear waste disposal, handling of radioisotopes, and environmental effects of these operations, are also treated. Table of Contents for this issue follows. Table of Contents for this issue follows. GENERAL SAFETY CONSIDERATIONS: 1 AEC Working Paper on Population Density Around Nuclear Power-Plant Sites Adapted by J. Ft. Buchanan, 8 Water-Reactor Safety-Research Information Meeting by Wm. B. Cottrell, D. O. Hobson, and G. D. Whitman; ACCIDENT ANALYSIS: 29 Burnout in Boiling Heat Transfer. Part I: Pool-Boiling Systems by A. E. Bergles; PLANT SAFETY FEATURES: 43 Radionuclide Behavior During Normal Operation of Liquid-Metal-Cooled Fast Breeder Reactors. Part 1: Production by C. A. Erdman and A. B. Reynolds; CONSEQUENCES OF EFFLUENT RELEASE: 60 The Control, Monitoring, and Reporting of Radioactivity in Effluents. Part 1: AEC-Owned Facilities by M. B. Biles and F. E. Coffman, 71 The Control, Monitoring, and Reporting of Radioactivity in Effluents. Part 2: AEC-Licensed Facilities by L. B. Higginbotham and J. T. Collins; OPERATING EXPERIENCES: 76 Incident at the Lucens Reactor by J. M. Miller, 79 IAEA Symposium on Experience from Operating and Fueling of Nuclear Power Reactors by William A. Pryor, 87 Recent Occurrences at Nuclear Reactors and Their Causes Compiled by William R. Casto, 98 Summary of Operating U. S. Power Reactors as of Nov. 1. 1974, 101 Selected Safety-Related Occurrences Reported in September and October 1974 Compiled by William R. Casto; CURRENT EVENTS: 104 General Administrative Activities Compiled by Wm. B. Cottrell, 110 Action on Power-Reactor Projects Undergoing Regulatory Review or Consideration Compiled by Wm. B. Cottrell, 119 Action on Nonreactor Projects Undergoing Regulatory Review or Consideration Compiled by Wm. B. Cottrell, 121 Proposed Rule Changes as of Oct. 31, 1974; MISCELLANY: 97 ASTM—Euratom Symposium on Radiation Dosimetry: Developments and Standardization (Announcement), 118 Workshops on In-Pile Filter Testing (Announcement), 119 IAEA Symposium on Radiological Impacts from Releases from Nuclear Facilities into Aquatic Environments (Announcement).

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Ab initio single-neutron spectroscopic overlaps in lithium isotopes

We calculate single-neutron spectroscopic overlaps for lithium isotopes in the framework of the ab initio symmetry-adapted no-core shell model. We report the associated neutron-nucleus asymptotic normalization coefficients (ANCs) and spectroscopic factors (SFs) that are important ingredients in many reaction cross-section calculations. While spectroscopic factors have been traditionally extracted from experimental cross sections, their sensitivity on the type of reactions, the energy, and the underlying models point to the need for determining SFs from first-principle structure considerations. As illustrative examples, we present 6 Li + n, 7 Li ⁢+ n, and 8 Li ⁢+ n, and we show that the results are in a good agreement with those of other ab initio methods, where available, including the quantum Monte Carlo approach. Here, we compare ANCs and SFs to available experimentally deduced values, with a view toward expanding this study to heavier nuclei and to extracting intercluster effective interactions for input into analyses of existing and future experimental data.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Secondary-Source Core Reload Modeling with VERA

The CASL reactor simulation package VERA has been adapted to provide high-fidelity simulation capabilities for modeling source range detector response during subcritical reactor configurations. New features include the activation and shuffling of secondary-source assemblies, use of burned fuel neutron emission data from the ORIGEN depletion solver to the MPACT deterministic neutron transport solver, allowance of user-defined sources in MPACT based on material composition, ability to solve the subcritical source-driven system with neutron multiplication using the MPACT diffusion solver, and transfer of the calculated fission source from MPACT to the continuous-energy Monte Carlo solver Shift for final detector response evaluation using the CADIS methodology for variance reduction. These new capabilities were benchmarked against Watts Bar Unit 1 plant operating data for the first few fuel loading steps and were found to demonstrate excellent agreement with the measured data.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Improved Tensor Current Limit from 8 B 𝛽 Decay Including New Recoil-Order Calculations

A precision measurement of the 𝛽 + decay of 8 B was performed using the Beta-decay Paul Trap to determine the 𝛽−𝜈 angular correlation coefficient 𝑎 𝛽⁢𝜈 . The experimental results were combined with new ab initio symmetry-adapted no-core shell-model calculations to yield the second-most precise measurement from Gamow-Teller decays, 𝑎 𝛽⁢𝜈 = −0.3345 ± 0.001⁢9 stat ± 0.002⁢1 syst . This value agrees with the standard model value of −1/3 and improves uncertainties in 8 B by nearly a factor of 2. By combining results from 8 B and 8 Li , a tight limit on tensor current coupling to right-handed neutrinos was obtained. A recent global evaluation of all other precision 𝛽 decay studies suggested a nonzero value for right-handed neutrino coupling in contradiction with the standard model at just above 3⁢𝜎. Finally, the present results are of comparable sensitivity and do not support this finding.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Comparison of heavy-ion transport simulations: Mean-field dynamics in a box

Within the transport model evaluation project (TMEP) of simulations for heavy-ion collisions, the mean-field response is examined here. Specifically, zero-sound propagation is considered for neutron-proton symmetric matter enclosed in a periodic box, at zero temperature and around normal density. The results of several transport codes belonging to two families (BUU-like and QMD-like) are compared among each other and to exact calculations. For BUU-like codes, employing the test particle method, the results depend on the combination of the number of test particles and the spread of the profile functions that weight integration over space. These parameters can be properly adapted to give a good reproduction of the analytical zero-sound features. QMD-like codes, using molecular dynamics methods, are characterized by large damping effects, attributable to the fluctuations inherent in their phase-space representation. Moreover, for a given nuclear effective interaction, they generally lead to slower density oscillations, as compared to BUU-like codes. The latter problem is mitigated in the more recent lattice formulation of some of the QMD codes. Furthermore, the significance of these results for the description of real heavy-ion collisions is discussed.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Hybridizing Machine Learning and Physically-based Earth System Models to Improve Prediction of Multivariate Extreme Events (AI Exploration of Wildland Fire Prediction)

Focal Areas: This project responds to two focal areas identified in the DOE Call for AI4ESP White Papers: 1) Predictive modeling through the use of artificial intelligence (AI) techniques, and 2) insights gleaned from complex data using explainable AI and big data analytics. Science Challenge: Large wildland fires (hereafter wildfires) appearing as high-impact compound climate extreme events are closely related to hydroclimate and water cycle extremes that modulate surface fuel supply and combustibility. These compound events have multivariate climatic features (e.g., temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, wind, lightning) and societal drivers (e.g., forest management, land use change, human caused ignitions). Meanwhile, they induce strong feedbacks to the coupled atmosphere, biosphere, and hydrosphere by perturbing regional and global radiation budget as well as ecological, biogeochemical, and water cycles across multiple spatiotemporal scales. The nonlinear interactions between these natural and anthropogenic components of the Earth system are too complex to be completely and adequately represented in today’s Earth system models (ESMs). The inherent stochastic nature of fire activity at all scales further increases the difficulty of its prediction using ESMs that are usually developed from deterministic equations and parameterizations. Besides, concurrence of long-term (decadal to interdecadal) global climate change and fire regime shifts overlapping with short-term (intraseasonal to interannual) variations of regional fire weather and burning activity confound predictability of these compound extreme events. We propose to address the above scientific challenges by using machine learning (ML)-based data-driven modeling techniques to integrate observations and physically-based ESMs’ simulations in a computationally efficient hybrid prediction system. This prediction system is supposed to characterize the wildfire’s sensitivity to climate and exogenous drivers at high resolution (~ 0.25°) on subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescales providing improved predictability and explainability. We will use the system to help identify: (1) What are the computational elements of a hybrid system needed to predict compound climate extreme events such as global wildfires? (2) What are the key drivers (either natural or anthropogenic) that modulate short-term variations of multivariate fire weather and burning activity over different regions? How can one take advantage of those driver-response relationships to improve the predictability of large wildfires on S2S time scales? (3) What are the underlying physical mechanisms and sources of improved predictability? Which ML techniques are optimal in revealing and adapting these mechanisms?

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Structure-Related Electronic and Magnetic Properties in Ultrathin Epitaxial Ni x Fe 3–x O 4 Films on MgO(001)

Off-stoichiometric Ni x Fe 3–x O 4 ultrathin films (x < 2.1) with varying Ni content x and thickness 16 (±2) nm were grown on MgO(001) by reactive molecular beam epitaxy. Synchrotron-based high-resolution X-ray diffraction measurements reveal vertical compressive strain for all films, resulting from a lateral pseudomorphic adaption of the film to the substrate lattice without any strain relaxation. Complete crystallinity with smooth interfaces and surfaces is obtained independent of the Ni content x. For x < 1 an expected successive conversion from Fe 3 O 4 to NiFe 2 O 4 is observed, whereas local transformation into NiO structures is observed for films with Ni content x > 1. However, angle-resolved hard X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy measurements indicate homogeneous cationic distributions without strictly separated phases independent of the Ni content, while X-ray absorption spectroscopy shows that also for x > 1, not all Fe 2+ cations are substituted by Ni 2+ cations. The ferrimagnetic behavior, as observed by superconducting quantum interference device magnetometry, is characterized by decreasing saturation magnetization due to the formation of antiferromagnetic NiO parts.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Second-generation downscaled earth system model data using generative machine learning

The second-generation Sup3rCC dataset provides high-resolution meteorological data generated through the downscaling of multiple earth system models (ESMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). This downscaling is performed through application of a generative machine learning approach called Super-Resolution for Renewable Resource Data (sup3r). This dataset builds on the first-generation Sup3rCC data by applying improved bias correction methods and adding downscaled precipitation to the output variables. As with the first Sup3rCC version, the data still include temperature, wind speed and direction at multiple heights, pressure, three components of downwelling solar radiation, and relative humidity—all at 4-kilometer (km) hourly resolution over the contiguous United States. This is a 25x spatial enhancement and 24x temporal enhancement of the source 100-km daily-average ESM data. This extension of the Sup3rCC dataset includes data from six ESMs from two shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) totaling 400 years of data with multiple future projections of changing meteorological conditions. The scenario selection was based on a structured evaluation of historical ESM skill and comprehensive representation of possible trajectories of future climate change in temperature, humidity, precipitation, solar irradiance, and near-surface wind speeds. The inclusion of multiple future projections is intended to enable users to assess key drivers of un 36 certainty and variability. All data are double-bias corrected, resulting in a product that can be used out-of-the-box for energy system analysis with minimal historical bias. The potential applications of Sup3rCC data extend to various topics in renewable energy resource assessment, energy systems modeling, and grid resilience studies. High-resolution future meteorological projections are critical for evaluating the effects of changing meteorological conditions on renewable energy generation, energy demand, and for optimizing energy storage and grid infrastructure. The 4-km hourly resolution of the downscaled data enables understanding of spatial and temporal variability at the scales necessary for energy system operational planning. In addition, the dataset can support risk assessments by providing detailed information on possible future extreme weather events and long-term meteorological variability at scales relevant to energy infrastructure. By offering an enhanced representation of possible future meteorological conditions, the second-generation Sup3rCC dataset enables more precise modeling of energy resilience and adaptation strategies in response to changing meteorological conditions.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗