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At least 379 records · Page 21

Assimilation of multiple datasets results in large differences in regional- to global-scale NEE and GPP budgets simulated by a terrestrial biosphere model

In spite of the importance of land ecosystems in offsetting carbon dioxide emissions released by anthropogenic activities into the atmosphere, the spatiotemporal dynamics of terrestrial carbon fluxes remain largely uncertain at regional to global scales. Over the past decade, data assimilation (DA) techniques have grown in importance for improving these fluxes simulated by terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs), by optimizing model parameter values while also pinpointing possible parameterization deficiencies. Although the joint assimilation of multiple data streams is expected to constrain a wider range of model processes, their actual benefits in terms of reduction in model uncertainty are still under-researched, also given the technical challenges. In this study, we investigated with a consistent DA framework and the ORCHIDEE-LMDz TBM–atmosphere model how the assimilation of different combinations of data streams may result in different regional to global carbon budgets. To do so, we performed comprehensive DA experiments where three datasets (in situ measurements of net carbon exchange and latent heat fluxes, spaceborne estimates of the normalized difference vegetation index, and atmospheric CO 2 concentration data measured at stations) were assimilated alone or simultaneously. We thus evaluated their complementarity and usefulness to constrain net and gross C land fluxes. We found that a major challenge in improving the spatial distribution of the land C sinks and sources with atmospheric CO 2 data relates to the correction of the soil carbon imbalance.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Realized ecological forecast through an interactive Ecological Platform for Assimilating Data (EcoPAD, v1.0) into models

Abstract. Predicting future changes in ecosystem services is not only highly desirable but is also becoming feasible as several forces (e.g., available big data, developed data assimilation (DA) techniques, and advanced cyber-infrastructure) are converging to transform ecological research into quantitative forecasting. To realize ecological forecasting, we have developed an Ecological Platform for Assimilating Data (EcoPAD, v1.0) into models. EcoPAD (v1.0) is a web-based software system that automates data transfer and processing from sensor networks to ecological forecasting through data management, model simulation, data assimilation, forecasting, and visualization. It facilitates interactive data–model integration from which the model is recursively improved through updated data while data are systematically refined under the guidance of model. EcoPAD (v1.0) relies on data from observations, process-oriented models, DA techniques, and the web-based workflow. We applied EcoPAD (v1.0) to the Spruce and Peatland Responses Under Climatic and Environmental change (SPRUCE) experiment in northern Minnesota. The EcoPAD-SPRUCE realizes fully automated data transfer, feeds meteorological data to drive model simulations, assimilates both manually measured and automated sensor data into the Terrestrial ECOsystem (TECO) model, and recursively forecasts the responses of various biophysical and biogeochemical processes to five temperature and two CO 2 treatments in near-real time (weekly). Forecasting with EcoPAD-SPRUCE has revealed that mismatches in forecasting carbon pool dynamics are more related to model (e.g., model structure, parameter, and initial value) than forcing variables, opposite to forecasting flux variables. EcoPAD-SPRUCE quantified acclimations of methane production in response to warming treatments through shifted posterior distributions of the CH 4 :CO 2 ratio and the temperature sensitivity ( Q 10 ) of methane production towards lower values. Different case studies indicated that realistic forecasting of carbon dynamics relies on appropriate model structure, correct parameterization, and accurate external forcing. Moreover, EcoPAD-SPRUCE stimulated active feedbacks between experimenters and modelers to identify model components to be improved and additional measurements to be taken. It has become an interactive model–experiment (ModEx) system and opens a novel avenue for interactive dialogue between modelers and experimenters. Altogether, EcoPAD (v1.0) acts to integrate multiple sources of information and knowledge to best inform ecological forecasting.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DATeS: a highly extensible data assimilation testing suite v1.0

A flexible and highly extensible data assimilation testing suite, named DATeS, is described in this paper. DATeS aims to offer a unified testing environment that allows researchers to compare different data assimilation methodologies and understand their performance in various settings. The core of DATeS is implemented in Python and takes advantage of its object-oriented capabilities. The main components of the package (the numerical models, the data assimilation algorithms, the linear algebra solvers, and the time discretization routines) are independent of each other, which offers great flexibility to configure data assimilation applications. DATeS can interface easily with large third-party numerical models written in Fortran or in C,and with a plethora of external solvers.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Development of an open-source regional data assimilation system in PEcAn v. 1.7.2: application to carbon cycle reanalysis across the contiguous US using SIPNET

Abstract. The ability to monitor, understand, and predict the dynamics of the terrestrial carbon cycle requires the capacity to robustly and coherently synthesize multiple streams of information that each provide partial information about different pools and fluxes. In this study, we introduce a new terrestrial carbon cycle data assimilation system, built on the PEcAn model–data eco-informatics system, and its application for the development of a proof-of-concept carbon “reanalysis” product that harmonizes carbon pools (leaf, wood, soil) and fluxes (GPP, Ra, Rh, NEE) across the contiguous United States from 1986–2019. We first calibrated this system against plant trait and flux tower net ecosystem exchange (NEE) using a novel emulated hierarchical Bayesian approach. Next, we extended the Tobit–Wishart ensemble filter (TWEnF) state data assimilation (SDA) framework, a generalization of the common ensemble Kalman filter which accounts for censored data and provides a fully Bayesian estimate of model process error, to a regional-scale system with a calibrated localization. Combined with additional workflows for propagating parameter, initial condition, and driver uncertainty, this represents the most complete and robust uncertainty accounting available for terrestrial carbon models. Our initial reanalysis was run on an irregular grid of ∼ 500 points selected using a stratified sampling method to efficiently capture environmental heterogeneity. Remotely sensed observations of aboveground biomass (Landsat LandTrendr) and leaf area index (LAI) (MODIS MOD15) were sequentially assimilated into the SIPNET model. Reanalysis soil carbon, which was indirectly constrained based on modeled covariances, showed general agreement with SoilGrids, an independent soil carbon data product. Reanalysis NEE, which was constrained based on posterior ensemble weights, also showed good agreement with eddy flux tower NEE and reduced root mean square error (RMSE) compared to the calibrated forecast. Ultimately, PEcAn's new open-source regional data assimilation framework provides a scalable workflow for harmonizing multiple data constraints and providing a uniform synthetic platform for carbon monitoring, reporting, and verification (MRV) as well as accelerating terrestrial carbon cycle research.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Future possibilities in objective analysis and data assimilation for atmospheric dynamics

The role that dynamics plays in estimating the state of the atmosphere from incomplete and noisy data is reviewed. Objective analysis represents an attempt at relying mostly on the data and minimizing the role of dynamics in the estimation. Data assimilation tries to balance properly the roles of dynamical and observational information. Sequential estimation is presented as the proper framework for understanding this balance, and the Kalman filter as the ideal, optimal procedure for data assimilation. The optimal filter computes forecast error covariances of a given atmospheric model exactly, and hence data assimilation should be closely connected with predictability studies. This connection is described, and consequences drawn for currently active areas of the atmospheric and related sciences, namely, mesoscale meteorology, long range forecasting, and upper ocean dynamics. Possibilities offered by judicious data assimilation in understanding barotropic adjustment, a phenomenon that appears to play a crucial role in atmospheric behavior on the scale of weeks to months, and hence in long range forecasting are addressed.

Ghil, M.↗

Anorthosite assimilation and the origin of the Mg/Fe-related bimodality of pristine moon rocks - Support for the magmasphere hypothesis

The geochemical bimodality of pristine rocks led to proposals that a major fraction of the crust (the Mg rich suite) formed in cumulates in numerous intrusions slightly younger than the magmasphere. It is suggested that assimilation helped to engender the bimodal patterns. Mass/energy balance calculations indicate that large proportions of plagioclase were probably assimilated from the older (Magmasphere-generated) ferroan anorthosite crust by most of the Mg-rich intrusive melts. The magmasphere, in the absence of assimilation probably did not yield appreciable plagioclase until fractional crystallization of mafic silicates had diminished the melt mg ratio to about 0.42. However, assuming identical melt composition, an Mg-rich intrusion assimilating ferroan anorthosite would have reached plagioclase saturation at a much higher mg, about 0.66. It is suggested that the current version of the magmasphere hypothesis (ferroan anorthosites = magmasphere flotation cumulates; Mg-rich rocks = products of younger, localized intrusions) is the only plausable mechanism for engendering the Mg/Fe-relate bimodality.

Warren, P. H.↗

A multivariate variational objective analysis-assimilation method. Part 2: Case study results with and without satellite data

The variational multivariate assimilation method described in a companion paper by Achtemeier and Ochs is applied to conventional and conventional plus satellite data. Ground-based and space-based meteorological data are weighted according to the respective measurement errors and blended into a data set that is a solution of numerical forms of the two nonlinear horizontal momentum equations, the hydrostatic equation, and an integrated continuity equation for a dry atmosphere. The analyses serve first, to evaluate the accuracy of the model, and second to contrast the analyses with and without satellite data. Evaluation criteria measure the extent to which: (1) the assimilated fields satisfy the dynamical constraints, (2) the assimilated fields depart from the observations, and (3) the assimilated fields are judged to be realistic through pattern analysis. The last criterion requires that the signs, magnitudes, and patterns of the hypersensitive vertical velocity and local tendencies of the horizontal velocity components be physically consistent with respect to the larger scale weather systems.

Achtemeier, Gary L.↗

High alumina (HA) and very high potassium (VHK) basalt clasts from Apollo 14 breccias. II - Whole rock geochemistry - Further evidence for combined assimilation and fractional crystallization within the lunar crust

The understanding of basalt petrogenesis at the Apollo 14 site has increased markedly due to the study of 'new' samples from breccia 'pull-apart' efforts. Whole-rock compositions of 26 new high alumina (HA) and 7 very high potassium (VHK) basalts emphasize the importance of combined assimilation and fractional crystallization in a lunar regime. Previously formulated models for HA and VHK basalt petrogenesis are modified in order to accomodate these new data, although modeling parameters are essentially the same. The required range in HA basalt compositions is generated by the assimilation of KREEP by a 'primitive' parental magma. The VHK basalts can be generated by three parental HA basalts assimilating granite. Results indicate that VHK basalt compositions are dominated by the parental magma, and only up to 8 percent granite assimilation is required. This modeling indicates that at least three VHK basalt flows must be present at the Apollo 14 site.

Neal, C. R.↗

Optimizing the use of remotely sensed atmospheric data through four-dimensional data assimilation

Results with the GLA interactive forecast-retrieval-assimilation system, which directly uses satellite radiance data in the assimilation cycle, are presented. Forecasts made from initial conditions derived with this system are shown to be more skillful than those whose initial conditions came from a comparable assimilation using statistically based temperature soundings, or ones using no sounding data at all. Examples are also given of additional parameters which are produced through the physical inversion of the satellite radiance data during the interactive assimilation cycle. These are potentially useful for analysis purposes.

Pfaendtner, J.↗

Variational data assimilation with a semi-Lagrangian semi-implicit global shallow-water equation model and its adjoint

An adjoint model is developed for variational data assimilation using the 2D semi-Lagrangian semi-implicit (SLSI) shallow-water equation global model of Bates et al. with special attention being paid to the linearization of the interpolation routines. It is demonstrated that with larger time steps the limit of the validity of the tangent linear model will be curtailed due to the interpolations, especially in regions where sharp gradients in the interpolated variables coupled with strong advective wind occur, a synoptic situation common in the high latitudes. This effect is particularly evident near the pole in the Northern Hemisphere during the winter season. Variational data assimilation experiments of 'identical twin' type with observations available only at the end of the assimilation period perform well with this adjoint model. It is confirmed that the computational efficiency of the semi-Lagrangian scheme is preserved during the minimization process, related to the variational data assimilation procedure.

Li, Y.↗

Short-range precipitation forecasts using assimilation of simulated satellite water vapor profiles and column cloud liquid water amounts

These observing system simulation experiments investigate the assimilation of satellite-observed water vapor and cloud liquid water data in the initialization of a limited-area primitive equations model with the goal of improving short-range precipitation forecasts. The assimilation procedure presented includes two aspects: specification of an initial cloud liquid water vertical distribution and diabatic initialization. The satellite data is simulated for the next generation of polar-orbiting satellite instruments, the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU) and the High-Resolution Infrared Sounder (HIRS), which are scheduled to be launched on the NOAA-K satellite in the mid-1990s. Based on cloud-top height and total column cloud liquid water amounts simulated for satellite data a diagnostic method is used to specify an initial cloud water vertical distribution and to modify the initial moisture distribution in cloudy areas. Using a diabatic initialization procedure, the associated latent heating profiles are directly assimilated into the numerical model. The initial heating is estimated by time averaging the latent heat release from convective and large-scale condensation during the early forecast stage after insertion of satellite-observed temperature, water vapor, and cloud water formation. The assimilation of satellite-observed moisture and cloud water, together withy three-mode diabatic initialization, significantly alleviates the model precipitation spinup problem, especially in the first 3 h of the forecast. Experimental forecasts indicate that the impact of satellite-observed temperature and water vapor profiles and cloud water alone in the initialization procedure shortens the spinup time for precipitation rates by 1-2 h and for regeneration of the areal coverage by 3 h. The diabatic initialization further reduces the precipitation spinup time (compared to adiabatic initialization) by 1 h.

Wu, Xiaohua↗

Assimilation by lunar mare basalts: Melting of crustal material and dissolution of anorthite

We discuss techniques for calculating the amount of crustal assimilation possible in lunar magma chambers and dikes based on thermal energy balances, kinetic rates, and simple fluid mechanical constraints. Assuming parent magmas of picritic compositions, we demonstrate the limits on the capacity of such magmas to melt and dissolve wall rock of anorthitic, troctolitic, noritic, and KREEP (quartz monzodiorite) compositions. Significant melting of the plagioclase-rich crustal lithologies requires turbulent convection in the assimilating magma and an efficient method of mixing in the relatively buoyant and viscous new melt. Even when this occurs, the major element chemistry of the picritic magmas will change by less than 1-2 wt %. Diffusion coefficients measured for Al2O3 from an iron-free basalt and an orange glass composition are 10(exp -12) sq m/s at 1340 C and 10(exp -11) sq m/s at 1390 C. These rates are too slow to allow dissolution of plagioclase to significantly affect magma compositions. Picritic magmas can melt significant quantities of KREEP, which suggests that their trace element chemistry may still be affected by assimilation processes; however, mixing viscous melts of KREEP composition with the fluid picritic magmas could be prohibitively difficult. We conclude that only a small part of the total major element chemical variation in the mare basalt and volcanic glass collection is due to assimilation/fractional crystallization processes near the lunar surface. Instead, most of the chemical variation in the lunar basalts and volcanic glasses must result from assimilation at deeper levels or from having distinct source regions in a heterogeneous lunar mantle.

Finnila, A. B.↗

Assimilation by Lunar Mare Basalts: Melting of Crustal Material and Dissolution of Anorthite

We discuss techniques for calculating the amount of crustal assimilation possible in lunar magma chambers and dikes based on thermal energy balances, kinetic rates, and simple fluid mechanical constraints. Assuming parent magmas of picritic compositions, we demonstrate the limits on the capacity of such magmas to melt and dissolve wall rock of anorthitic, troctolitic, noritic, and KREEP (quartz monzodiorite) compositions. Significant melting of the plagioclase-rich crustal lithologies requires turbulent convection in the assimilating magma and an efficient method of mixing in the relatively buoyant and viscous new melt. Even when this occurs, the major element chemistry of the picritic magmas will change by less than 1-2 wt %. Diffusion coefficients measured for Al2O3 from an iron-free basalt and an orange glass composition are 10(exp -12) m(exp 2) s(exp -1) at 1340 C and 10(exp -11) m(exp 2) s(exp -1) at 1390 C. These rates are too slow to allow dissolution of plagioclase to significantly affect magma compositions. Picritic magmas can melt significant quantities of KREEP, which suggests that their trace element chemistry may still be affected by assimilation processes; however, mixing viscous melts of KREEP composition with the fluid picritic magmas could be prohibitively difficult. We conclude that only a small part of the total major element chemical variation in the mare basalt and volcanic glass collection is due to assimilation/fractional crystallization processes near the lunar surface. Instead, most of the chemical variation in the lunar basalts and volcanic glasses must result from assimilation at deeper levels or from having distinct source regions in a heterogeneous lunar mantle.

Finnila, A. B.↗

Surface Temperature Assimilation in Land Surface Models

This paper examines the utilization of surface temperature as a variable to be assimilated in offline land surface hydrological models. Comparisons between the model computed and satellite observed surface temperatures have been carried out. The assimilation of surface temperature is carried out twice a day (corresponding to the AM and PM overpass of the NOAA10) over the Red- Arkansas basin in the Southwestern United States (31 deg 50 min N - 36 deg N, 94 deg 30 min W - 104 deg 30 min W) for a period of one year (August 1987 to July 1988). The effect of assimilation is to reduce the difference between the surface soil moisture computed for the precipitation and/or shortwave radiation perturbed case and the unperturbed case compared to no assimilation.

Lakshmi, Venkataraman↗

Stratospheric Tides and Data Assimilation

In the upper stratosphere, the atmosphere exhibits significant diurnal and semi-diurnal tidal variations, with typical amplitude of about 2K in mid-latitudes. In this paper we examine how well the tidal variations in temperature are represented by the Goddard Geodesic Earth Orbiting Satellite (GEOS-2) data assimilation system. We show that the GEOS-2 atmospheric model is quite successful at simulating the tidal temperature variations. However, the assimilation of satellite temperature soundings significantly damps the simulated tides. The reason is because the tides are not well represented by the satellite retrievals used by the assimilation system (which have a typical tidal amplitude of around 1K). As a result of this study, we suggest improvements that should be made to the treatment of satellite soundings by the assimilation system.

Swinbank, R.↗

A Comparison of FIFE Observation with GEOS Assimilated Data Including a Heterogeneous LSM

Several recent studies have shown that much can be learned by comparing grid-point data from a data assimilation system with in-situ observations from field experiments. While the surface heterogeneity is acknowledged in these studies, they lack quantitative representations of the influence of heterogeneity on the near-surface meteorology and surface hydrologic and energy balance. Here, we use the Betts and Ball FIFE site-averaged data. Standard deviations of the site-average will provide an estimate of the FIFE site heterogeneity. Recently, the Mosaic Land-Surface Model (LSM) has been incorporated into the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) Data Assimilation System (DAS). The Mosaic LSM computes the surface energy and hydrologic balance for nine distinct surface types at each grid-point. Each surface type is proportionally weighted to determine the mean grid point properties. Hence, we can compare modeled and observed grid-point variability in addition to the mean properties. Also, assimilated data sets created with and without the LSM are compared. The results indicate the importance of including quantitative estimates of heterogeneity in the analysis of the land surface hydrology and energy balances in assimilation systems.

Bosilovich, M.↗

Assimilation of Surface Temperature in Land Surface Models

Hydrological models have been calibrated and validated using catchment streamflows. However, using a point measurement does not guarantee correct spatial distribution of model computed heat fluxes, soil moisture and surface temperatures. With the advent of satellites in the late 70s, surface temperature is being measured two to four times a day from various satellite sensors and different platforms. The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate use of satellite surface temperature in (a) validation of model computed surface temperatures and (b) assimilation of satellite surface temperatures into a hydrological model in order to improve the prediction accuracy of soil moistures and heat fluxes. The assimilation is carried out by comparing the satellite and the model produced surface temperatures and setting the "true"temperature midway between the two values. Based on this "true" surface temperature, the physical relationships of water and energy balance are used to reset the other variables. This is a case of nudging the water and energy balance variables so that they are consistent with each other and the true" surface temperature. The potential of this assimilation scheme is demonstrated in the form of various experiments that highlight the various aspects. This study is carried over the Red-Arkansas basin in the southern United States (a 5 deg X 10 deg area) over a time period of a year (August 1987 - July 1988). The land surface hydrological model is run on an hourly time step. The results show that satellite surface temperature assimilation improves the accuracy of the computed surface soil moisture remarkably.

Lakshmi, Venkataraman↗

Surface Temperature Assimilation in Land Surface Models

This paper examines the utilization of surface temperature as a variable to be assimilated in offline land surface hydrological models. Comparisons between the model computed and satellite observed surface temperatures have been carried out. The assimilation of surface temperature is carried out twice a day (corresponding to the AM and PM overpass of the NOAA10) over the Red-Arkansas basin in the Southwestern United States (31 degs 50 sec N - 36 degrees N, 94 degrees 30 seconds W - 104 degrees 3 seconds W) for a period of one year (August 1987 to July 1988). The effect of assimilation is to reduce the difference between the surface soil moisture computed for the precipitation and/or shortwave radiation perturbed case and the unperturbed case compared to no assimilation.

Lakshmi, Venkataraman↗