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NASA NTRS2022

Comparisons Between the Distributions of Dust and Combustion Aerosols in MERRA-2, FLEXPART and CALIPSO and Implications for Deposition Freezing Over Wintertime Siberia

Aerosol distributions have a potentially large influence on climate-relevant cloud properties but can be difficult to observe over the Arctic given pervasive cloudiness, long polar nights, data paucity over remote regions, and periodic diamond dust events that satellites can misclassify as aerosol. We compared Arctic 2008–2015 mineral dust and combustion aerosol distributions from the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observation (CALIPSO) satellite, the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2) reanalysis products, and the FLEXible PARTicle (FLEXPART) dispersion model. Based on coincident, seasonal Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) Arctic satellite meteorological data, diamond dust may occur up to 60 % of the time in winter, but it hardly ever occurs in summer. In its absence, MERRA-2 and FLEXPART each predict the vertical and horizontal distribution of large-scale patterns in combustion aerosols with relatively high confidence (Kendall tau rank correlation > 0.6), although a sizable amount of variability is still unaccounted for. They do the same for dust, except in conditions conducive to diamond dust formation where CALIPSO is likely misclassifying diamond dust as mineral dust and near the surface (< ∼ 2 km) where FLEXPART may be overpredicting local dust emissions. Comparisons to ground data suggest that MERRA-2 Arctic dust concentrations can be improved by the addition of local dust sources. All three products predicted that wintertime dust and combustion aerosols occur most frequently over the same Siberian regions where diamond dust is most common in the winter. This suggests that dust aerosol impacts on ice phase processes may be particularly high over Siberia, although further wintertime model validation with non-CALIPSO observations is needed. This assessment paves the way for applying the model-based aerosol simulations to a range of regional-scale Arctic aerosol–cloud interaction studies with greater confidence.

MERRA-2↗

NASA NTRS2012

A13K-0336: Airborne Multi-Wavelength High Spectral Resolution Lidar for Process Studies and Assessment of Future Satellite Remote Sensing Concepts

NASA Langley recently developed the world's first airborne multi-wavelength high spectral resolution lidar (HSRL). This lidar employs the HSRL technique at 355 and 532 nm to make independent, unambiguous retrievals of aerosol extinction and backscatter. It also employs the standard backscatter technique at 1064 nm and is polarization-sensitive at all three wavelengths. This instrument, dubbed HSRL-2 (the secondgeneration HSRL developed by NASA Langley), is a prototype for the lidar on NASA's planned Aerosols- Clouds-Ecosystems (ACE) mission. HSRL-2 completed its first science mission in July 2012, the Two-Column Aerosol Project (TCAP) conducted by the Department of Energy (DOE) in Hyannis, MA. TCAP presents an excellent opportunity to assess some of the remote sensing concepts planned for ACE: HSRL-2 was deployed on the Langley King Air aircraft with another ACE-relevant instrument, the NASA GISS Research Scanning Polarimeter (RSP), and flights were closely coordinated with the DOE's Gulfstream-1 aircraft, which deployed a variety of in situ aerosol and trace gas instruments and the new Spectrometer for Sky-Scanning, Sun-Tracking Atmospheric Research (4STAR). The DOE also deployed their Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Mobile Facility and their Mobile Aerosol Observing System at a ground site located on the northeastern coast of Cape Cod for this mission. In this presentation we focus on the capabilities, data products, and applications of the new HSRL-2 instrument. Data products include aerosol extinction, backscatter, depolarization, and optical depth; aerosol type identification; mixed layer depth; and rangeresolved aerosol microphysical parameters (e.g., effective radius, index of refraction, single scatter albedo, and concentration). Applications include radiative closure studies, studies of aerosol direct and indirect effects, investigations of aerosol-cloud interactions, assessment of chemical transport models, air quality studies, present (e.g., CALIPSO) and future (e.g., EarthCARE) satellite calibration/validation, and development/assessment of advanced retrieval techniques for future satellite applications (e.g., lidar+polarimeter retrievals of aerosol and cloud properties). We will also discuss the relevance of HSRL-2 measurement capabilities to the ACE remote sensing concept.

Hostetler, Chris A.↗

DOE OSTI2018

Observational constraint on cloud susceptibility weakened by aerosol retrieval limitations

Aerosol-cloud interactions remain a major uncertainty in climate research. Studies have indicated that model estimates of cloud susceptibility to aerosols frequently exceed satellite estimates, motivating model reformulations to increase agreement. Here we show that conventional ways of using satellite information to estimate susceptibility can serve as only a weak constraint on models because the estimation is sensitive to errors in the retrieval procedures. Using instrument simulators to investigate differences between model and satellite estimates of susceptibilities, we find that low aerosol loading conditions are not well characterized by satellites, but model clouds are sensitive to aerosol perturbations in these conditions. We quantify the observational requirements needed to constrain models, and find that the nighttime lidar measurements of aerosols provide a better characterization of tenuous aerosols. Here, we conclude that observational uncertainties and limitations need to be accounted for when assessing the role of aerosols in the climate system.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2018

Observational Constraint on Cloud Susceptibility Weakened by Aerosol Retrieval Limitations

Aerosol-cloud interactions remain a major uncertainty in climate research. Studies have indicated that model estimates of cloud susceptibility to aerosols frequently exceed satellite estimates, motivating model reformulations to increase agreement. Here we show that conventional ways of using satellite information to estimate susceptibility can serve as only a weak constraint on models because the estimation is sensitive to errors in the retrieval procedures. Using instrument simulators to investigate differences between model and satellite estimates of susceptibilities, we ﬁnd that low aerosol loading conditions are not well characterized by satellites, but model clouds are sensitive to aerosol perturbations in these conditions. We quantify the observational requirements needed to constrain models, and ﬁnd that the nighttime lidar measurements of aerosols provide a better characterization of ten- uous aerosols. We conclude that observational uncertainties and limitations need to be accounted for when assessing the role of aerosols in the climate system.

Ma, Po-Lun↗

DOE OSTI2023

SAIL-Net Raw and Post Corrected POPS Data Fall 2021 - Summer 2023

SAIL-Net is a DOE funded project in the East River Watershed near Crested Butte, Colorado with the goal of advancing our understanding of aerosol-cloud interactions in complex, mountainous regions. Through the deployment of a network of six low cost microphysics nodes in Fall 2021 in the same domain at the SAIL campaign, SAIL-Net provides data on aerosol size distributions, cloud condensation nuclei (CCN), and ice nucleation particles (INP). This network enables the investigation of small-scale variations in complex terrain. Two datasets are provided - one containing raw data and the other containing post-corrected data. The raw dataset provides the raw data recorded from the POPS which were deployed at each of the six sites. These data are organized by site and broken down into daily data files. The six site names used here are: “gothic”, “irwin”, “cbtop”, “cbmid”, “pumphouse”, and “snodgrass”. These data are not cleaned or post-corrected, but some flags have been added. The data are reported at 1 second time resolution. The post-corrected dataset provides the post-corrected and cleaned data recorded from the POPS which were deployed at each of the six sites. This data are also organized by site (same as those found in the raw data) and broken down into daily data files. Unlike the raw POPS data, these data have already been cleaned to remove what we believe are bad values. These data should be ready to use with no cleaning. For a full description of the cleaning and post-correction process, see the readme.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

SAIL-Net CloudPuck CCN Data

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2015

Comprehensive mapping and characteristic regimes of aerosol effects on the formation and evolution of pyro-convective clouds

Here, a recent parcel model study (Reutter et al., 2009) showed three deterministic regimes of initial cloud droplet formation, characterized by different ratios of aerosol concentrations ( N CN ) to updraft velocities. This analysis, however, did not reveal how these regimes evolve during the subsequent cloud development. To address this issue, we employed the Active Tracer High Resolution Atmospheric Model (ATHAM) with full microphysics and extended the model simulation from the cloud base to the entire column of a single pyro-convective mixed-phase cloud. A series of 2-D simulations (over 1000) were performed over a wide range of N CN and dynamic conditions. The integrated concentration of hydrometeors over the full spatial and temporal scales was used to evaluate the aerosol and dynamic effects. The results show the following. (1) The three regimes for cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) activation in the parcel model (namely aerosol-limited, updraft-limited, and transitional regimes) still exist within our simulations, but net production of raindrops and frozen particles occurs mostly within the updraft-limited regime. (2) Generally, elevated aerosols enhance the formation of cloud droplets and frozen particles. The response of raindrops and precipitation to aerosols is more complex and can be either positive or negative as a function of aerosol concentrations. The most negative effect was found for values of N CN of ~ 1000 to 3000 cm –3 . (3) The nonlinear properties of aerosol–cloud interactions challenge the conclusions drawn from limited case studies in terms of their representativeness, and ensemble studies over a wide range of aerosol concentrations and other influencing factors are strongly recommended for a more robust assessment of the aerosol effects.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Earth System Model Aerosol–Cloud Diagnostics (ESMAC Diags) package, version 1: assessing E3SM aerosol predictions using aircraft, ship, and surface measurements

Abstract. An Earth system model (ESM) aerosol–cloud diagnostics package is developed to facilitate the routine evaluation of aerosols, clouds, and aerosol–cloud interactions simulated by the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) from the US Department of Energy (DOE). The first version focuses on comparing simulated aerosol properties with aircraft, ship, and surface measurements, which are mostly measured in situ. The diagnostics currently cover six field campaigns in four geographical regions: eastern North Atlantic (ENA), central US (CUS), northeastern Pacific (NEP), and Southern Ocean (SO). These regions produce frequent liquid- or mixed-phase clouds, with extensive measurements available from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program and other agencies. Various types of diagnostics and metrics are performed for aerosol number, size distribution, chemical composition, cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) concentration, and various meteorological quantities to assess how well E3SM represents observed aerosol properties across spatial scales. Overall, E3SM qualitatively reproduces the observed aerosol number concentration, size distribution, and chemical composition reasonably well, but it overestimates Aitken-mode aerosols and underestimates accumulation-mode aerosols over the CUS and ENA regions, suggesting that processes related to particle growth or coagulation might be too weak in the model. The current version of E3SM struggles to reproduce the new particle formation events frequently observed over both the CUS and ENA regions, indicating missing processes in current parameterizations. The diagnostics package is coded and organized in a way that can be extended to other field campaign datasets and adapted to higher-resolution model simulations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Effective radiative forcing of anthropogenic aerosols in E3SM version 1: historical changes, causality, decomposition, and parameterization sensitivities

Abstract. The effective radiative forcing of anthropogenic aerosols (ERFaer) is an important measure of the anthropogenic aerosol effects simulated by a global climate model. Here we analyze ERFaer simulated by the E3SM version 1 (E3SMv1) atmospheric model using both century-long free-running atmosphere–land simulations and short nudged simulations. We relate the simulated ERFaer to characteristics of the aerosol composition and optical properties, and we evaluate the relationships between key aerosol and cloud properties. In terms of historical changes from the year 1870 to 2014, our results show that the global mean anthropogenic aerosol burden and optical depth increase during the simulation period as expected, but the regional averages show large differences in the temporal evolution. The largest regional differences are found in the emission-induced evolution of the burden and optical depth of the sulfate aerosol: a strong decreasing trend is seen in the Northern Hemisphere high-latitude region after around 1970, while a continued increase is simulated in the tropics. The relationships between key aerosol and cloud properties (relative changes between pre-industrial and present-day conditions) also show evident changes after 1970, diverging from the linear relationships exhibited for the period of 1870–1969. In addition to the regional differences in the simulated relationships, a reduced sensitivity in cloud droplet number and other cloud properties to aerosol perturbations is seen when the aerosol perturbation is large. Consequently, the global annual mean ERFaer magnitude does not increase after around 1970. The ERFaer in E3SMv1 is relatively large compared to the recently published multi-model estimates; the primary reason is the large indirect aerosol effect (i.e., through aerosol–cloud interactions). Compared to other models, E3SMv1 features large relative changes in the cloud droplet effective radius in response to aerosol perturbations. Large sensitivity is also seen in the liquid cloud optical depth, which is determined by changes in both the effective radius and liquid water path. Aerosol-induced changes in liquid and ice cloud properties in E3SMv1 are found to have a strong correlation, as the evolution of anthropogenic sulfate aerosols affects both the liquid cloud formation and the homogeneous ice nucleation in cirrus clouds (that causes a large effect on longwave ERFaer). As suggested by a previous study, the large ERFaer appears to be one of the reasons why the model cannot reproduce the observed global mean temperature evolution in the second half of the 20th century. Sensitivity simulations are performed to understand which parameterization and/or parameter changes have a large impact on the simulated ERFaer. The ERFaer estimates in E3SMv1 for the shortwave and longwave components are sensitive to the parameterization changes in both liquid and ice cloud processes. When the parameterization of ice cloud processes is modified, the top-of-model forcing changes in the shortwave and longwave components largely offset each other, so the net effect is negligible. This suggests that, to reduce the magnitude of the net ERFaer, it would be more effective to reduce the anthropogenic aerosol effect through liquid or mixed-phase clouds.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2024

Freezing Processes in Southern Ocean Mixed Phase Clouds (Final Technical Report)

Southern Ocean (SO) low-level clouds remain a challenge for Earth system models to represent accurately. This project utilized DOE ARM observations and the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) to improve process-level understanding of aerosol-cloud interactions and cloud microphysics for SO mixed-phase clouds. Specifically, our efforts include two main topics: 1) investigate the SO aerosol, cloud condensation nuclei (CCN), and ice nucleating particle (INP) population based on observations and determine predictive skill of simulating SO INPs, and 2) assess the ice formation pathways, including ice nucleation and secondary ice production, in SO mixed phase clouds utilizing a combination of observations and modeling tools. Studies focused on SO aerosol and INP resulted four manuscripts. Ice formation pathways in SO mixed phase clouds were investigated, revealing observed evidence of SIP active across all mixed phase temperatures. However, a key finding of this project is that despite significant progress in predicting SO INPs, the role of INP variability in SO cloud phase, precipitation, and radiative properties remain unknown due to challenges in microphysics parameterizations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2013

An Overview of Regional Experiments on Biomass Burning Aerosols and Related Pollutants in Southeast Asia: From BASE-ASIA and the Dongsha Experiment to 7-SEAS

By modulating the Earth-atmosphere energy, hydrological and biogeochemical cycles, and affecting regional-to-global weather and climate, biomass burning is recognized as one of the major factors affecting the global carbon cycle. However, few comprehensive and wide-ranging experiments have been conducted to characterize biomass-burning pollutants in Southeast Asia (SEA) or assess their regional impact on meteorology, the hydrological cycle, the radiative budget, or climate change. Recently, BASEASIA (Biomass-burning Aerosols in South-East Asia: Smoke Impact Assessment) and the 7-SEAS (7- South-East Asian Studies) Dongsha Experiment were conducted during the spring seasons of 2006 and 2010 in northern SEA, respectively, to characterize the chemical, physical, and radiative properties of biomass-burning emissions near the source regions, and assess their effects. This paper provides an overview of results from these two campaigns and related studies collected in this special issue, entitled Observation, modeling and impact studies of biomass burning and pollution in the SE Asian Environment. This volume includes 28 papers, which provide a synopsis of the experiments, regional weatherclimate, chemical characterization of biomass-burning aerosols and related pollutants in source and sink regions, the spatial distribution of air toxics (atmospheric mercury and dioxins) in source and remote areas, a characterization of aerosol physical, optical, and radiative properties, as well as modeling and impact studies. These studies, taken together, provide the first relatively complete dataset of aerosol chemistry and physical observations conducted in the sourcesink region in the northern SEA, with particular emphasis on the marine boundary layer and lower free troposphere (LFT). The data, analysis and modeling included in these papers advance our present knowledge of source characterization of biomass-burning pollutants near the source regions as well as the physical and chemical processes along transport pathways. In addition, we raise key questions to be addressed by a coming deployment during springtime 2013 in northern SEA, named 7-SEASBASELInE (Biomass-burning Aerosols Stratocumulus Environment: Lifecycles and Interactions Experiment). This campaign will include a synergistic approach for further exploring many key atmospheric processes (e.g., complex aerosol-cloud interactions) and impacts of biomass burning on the surface-atmosphere energy budgets during the lifecycles of biomass burning emissions.

aerosol/biomass burning↗

DOE OSTI2019

Remote Sensing of Sea Salt Aerosol below Trade Wind Clouds

Abstract Sea salt aerosol in the boundary layer below shallow cumulus clouds is remotely observed with a Ka-band cloud radar at the Barbados Cloud Observatory and is detected in 76% of the measurements over 1 year. Carried by convection, sea salt particles with a diameter larger than 500 nm show an upward motion of 0.2 m s−1 below shallow cumulus clouds for a 2-day case study. Caused by an increasing relative humidity with increasing altitude, the sea salt particles become larger as they move closer to the cloud base. By using combined measurements of a Ka-band cloud radar and a Raman lidar, the retrieved equivolumetric diameter of the hygroscopically grown sea salt particles is found to be between 6 and 11 μm with a total number concentration of 20 cm−3 near cloud base. Assuming a fixed shape parameter, a size distribution of sea salt particles under high-relative-humidity conditions below cloud base is estimated and agrees with measurements taken by a dry-deposition sampler and online aerosol observations. The methods outlined in this paper can be used in future studies to get a better understanding of the vertical and temporal sea salt distribution in the boundary layer and sea salt aerosol–cloud interaction processes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Characteristics and effects of aerosols during blowing snow events in the central Arctic

Sea salt aerosol (SSaer) significantly impacts aerosol-radiation and aerosol-cloud interactions, and sublimated blowing snow is hypothesized to be an important SSaer source in polar regions. Understanding blowing snow and other wind-sourced aerosols’ climate relevant properties is needed, especially during winter when Arctic amplification is greatest. However, most of our understanding of blowing snow SSaer comes from modeling studies, and direct observations are sparse. Additionally, SSaer can originate from multiple sources, making it difficult to disentangle emission processes. Here, we present comprehensive observations of wind-sourced aerosol during blowing snow events from the Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) expedition in the central Arctic. High wind speed strongly enhances total aerosol number, submicron sodium chloride mass, cloud condensation nuclei concentrations, and scattering coefficients. Generally, the relative response of aerosol properties to wind speed enhancement is strongest in fall when Arctic aerosol concentrations are lowest. Blowing snow events showed similar aerosol and environmental properties across events, apart from occasions with high snow age (>6 days since last snowfall). Coarse-mode number concentrations (>1 μm) are better explained by variability in wind speed averaged over 12-h air mass back trajectories arriving at the MOSAiC site compared to local, instantaneous wind speed, suggesting the importance of regional transport and consideration of air mass history for wind-driven aerosol production. These MOSAiC observations provide new insights into wind-driven aerosol in the central Arctic and may help validate modeling studies and improve model parameterizations particularly for aerosol direct and indirect radiative forcing.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2019

Efficient In‐Cloud Removal of Aerosols by Deep Convection

Abstract Convective systems dominate the vertical transport of aerosols and trace gases. The most recent in situ aerosol measurements presented here show that the concentrations of primary aerosols including sea salt and black carbon drop by factors of 10 to 10,000 from the surface to the upper troposphere. In this study we show that the default convective transport scheme in the National Science Foundation/Department of Energy Community Earth System Model results in a high bias of 10–1,000 times the measured aerosol mass for black carbon and sea salt in the middle and upper troposphere. A modified transport scheme, which considers aerosol activation from entrained air above the cloud base and aerosol‐cloud interaction associated with convection, dramatically improves model agreement with in situ measurements suggesting that deep convection can efficiently remove primary aerosols. We suggest that models that fail to consider secondary activation may overestimate black carbon's radiative forcing by a factor of 2.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Atmospheric Composition and Radiative Forcing Effects due to UN International Ship Emissions Regulations (ACRUISE) Field Campaign Report

Aerosols, or atmospheric particulates, are long known to be able to seed clouds and modify their characteristics (e.g., cloud brightness, coverage, lifetime). However, the impact of aerosols on clouds is highly complex and non-linear. As a result, aerosol-cloud interaction remains the largest uncertainty in our understanding of the Earth’s radiative balance and in any future climate projections. Aerosols are also a principal component of air pollution and are known to adversely affect respiratory and cardiovascular health.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2023

Uncertainty in Aerosol–Cloud Radiative Forcing Is Driven By Clean Conditions

Atmospheric aerosols and their impact on cloud properties remain the largest uncertainty in the human forcing of the climate system. By increasing the concentration of cloud droplets (Nd), aerosols reduce droplet size and increase the reflectivity of clouds (a negative radiative forcing). Central to this climate impact is the susceptibility of cloud droplet number to aerosol (β), the diversity of which explains much of the variation in the radiative forcing from aerosol–cloud interactions (RFaci) in global climate models. This has made measuring β a key target for developing observational constraints of the aerosol forcing.

Edward Gryspeerdt↗

DOE OSTI2017

MACv2-SP: a parameterization of anthropogenic aerosol optical properties and an associated Twomey effect for use in CMIP6

A simple plume implementation of the second version (v2) of the Max Planck Institute Aerosol Climatology, MACv2-SP, is described. MACv2-SP provides a prescription of anthropogenic aerosol optical properties and an associated Twomey effect. It was created to provide a harmonized description of post-1850 anthropogenic aerosol radiative forcing for climate modeling studies. MACv2-SP has been designed to be easy to implement, change and use, and thereby enable studies exploring the climatic effects of different patterns of aerosol radiative forcing, including a Twomey effect. MACv2-SP is formulated in terms of nine spatial plumes associated with different major anthropogenic source regions. The shape of the plumes is fit to the Max Planck Institute Aerosol Climatology, version 2, whose present-day (2005) distribution is anchored by surface-based observations. Two types of plumes are considered: one predominantly associated with biomass burning, the other with industrial emissions. These differ in the prescription of their annual cycle and in their optical properties, thereby implicitly accounting for different contributions of absorbing aerosol to the different plumes. A Twomey effect for each plume is prescribed as a change in the host model's background cloud-droplet population density using relationships derived from satellite data. Year-to-year variations in the amplitude of the plumes over the historical period (1850–2016) are derived by scaling the plumes with associated national emission sources of SO 2 and NH 3 . Experiments using MACv2-SP are performed with the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model. The globally and annually averaged instantaneous and effective aerosol radiative forcings are estimated to be -0.6 and -0.5 W m -2 , respectively. Forcing from aerosol–cloud interactions (the Twomey effect) offsets the reduction of clear-sky forcing by clouds, so that the net effect of clouds on the aerosol forcing is small; hence, the clear-sky forcing, which is more readily measurable, provides a good estimate of the total aerosol forcing.

Stevens, Bjorn↗

DOE OSTI2024

General circulation models simulate negative liquid water path–droplet number correlations, but anthropogenic aerosols still increase simulated liquid water path

General circulation models' (GCMs) estimates of the liquid water path adjustment to anthropogenic aerosol emissions differ in sign from other lines of evidence. This reduces confidence in estimates of the effective radiative forcing of the climate by aerosol–cloud interactions (ERFaci). The discrepancy is thought to stem in part from GCMs' inability to represent the turbulence–microphysics interactions in cloud-top entrainment, a mechanism that leads to a reduction in liquid water in response to an anthropogenic increase in aerosols. In the real atmosphere, enhanced cloud-top entrainment is thought to be the dominant adjustment mechanism for liquid water path, weakening the overall ERFaci. We show that the latest generation of GCMs includes models that produce a negative correlation between the present-day cloud droplet number and liquid water path, a key piece of observational evidence supporting liquid water path reduction by anthropogenic aerosols and one that earlier-generation GCMs could not reproduce. However, even in GCMs with this negative correlation, the increase in anthropogenic aerosols from preindustrial to present-day values still leads to an increase in the simulated liquid water path due to the parameterized precipitation suppression mechanism. This adds to the evidence that correlations in the present-day climate are not necessarily causal. We investigate sources of confounding to explain the noncausal correlation between liquid water path and droplet number. These results are a reminder that assessments of climate parameters based on multiple lines of evidence must carefully consider the complementary strengths of different lines when the lines disagree.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗