Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “yield estimation”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 361 records · Page 20
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Seeking Echoes of Circumstellar Disks in Kepler Light Curves

Light echoes of flares on active stars offer the opportunity for direct detection of circumstellar dust. We revisit the problem of identifying faint echoes in postflare light curves, focusing on debris disks from ongoing planet formation. Starting with simulations, we develop an algorithm for estimating the radial extent and total mass from disk echo profiles. We apply this algorithm to light curves from over 2100 stars observed by NASA’s Kepler mission, selected for multiple short-lived flares in either the long-cadence or short-cadence data sets. While flux uncertainties in light curves from individual stars preclude useful mass limits on circumstellar disks, catalog-averaged light curves yield constraints on disk mass that are comparable to estimates from known debris disks. The average mass in micron- to millimeter-sized dust around the Kepler stars cannot exceed 10% of an Earth mass in exo-Kuiper belts or 10% of a lunar mass in the terrestrial zone. We group stars according to IR excess, based on WISE W1–W3 color, as an indicator for the presence of circumstellar dust. The mass limits are greater for stars with strong IR excess, a hint that echoes are lurking not far beneath the noise in postflare light curves. With increased sensitivity, echo detection will let time-domain astronomy complement spectroscopic and direct-imaging studies in mapping how, when, and where planets form.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

A spatially-resolved model of neutron-irradiated tungsten coupling stochastic cluster dynamics and finite deformation plasticity

Structural materials used in nuclear reactors face severe degradation in mechanical properties, such as hardening and embrittlement. At the microscopic scale, this occurs due to creation and accumulation of irradiation-induced defects and their interaction with system dislocations. Although techniques exist which can model evolution of irradiation defects, for instance kinetic transport theory-based models, their interaction with mechanical deformation of the bulk material has not been investigated extensively. In this work, we demonstrate a novel spatially-resolved multiscale coupling between microscopic irradiation defect evolution, modeled using Stochastic Cluster Dynamics (SCD) and macroscopic mechanical deformation modeled using a finite-deformation plasticity model. SCD is used to determine the statistically averaged defect cluster spacing, dependent on operating conditions such as irradiation dose and temperature. This acts as an initial condition that governs the critical resolved shear stress of dislocation glide in the macroscopic plasticity model. This framework is used to predict mechanical behavior in post-mortem test of irradiated Tungsten samples, which has found its importance as structural material used in nuclear reactors. The results obtained using the coupled approach are in good agreement with experimental data of uniaxial tension tests. The model is able to capture the effect of temperature and irradiation dose on the material hardening. Two methods are proposed to estimate hardness – using Tabor's Law relating uniaxial yield stress to hardness and from flat-punch simulations. The results are in reasonable agreement with hardness data from micro-indentation experiments of irradiated Tungsten samples. Finally, the model is also able to reveal microstructural details such as spatial variation in defect density and local stress.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2023

The role of cellular structure, non-equilibrium eutectic phases and precipitates on quasi-static strengthening mechanisms of as-built AlSi10Mg parts 3D printed via laser powder bed fusion

The quasi-static loading strengthening mechanism in the as-built state of an AlSi10Mg alloy 3D-printed via Laser Powder Bed Fusion (LPBF) was thoroughly identified and quantified using state-of-the-art electron microscopy and synchrotron X-ray diffraction techniques. The yield strength was comprehensively modelled through an in-depth characterization and quantification of the microstructural features as well as their effective volumes for strengthening. In particular, the non-equilibrium eutectic network was characterized with a two-fold structure: cell boundary particles as well as intracellular lamellar/fibrous networks, each consisting of discrete phases exhibiting a thru-thickness compositional gradient, a semi-coherent interface with the matrix and an abundance of crystal defects such as nano-sized sub-grains, microstrains and stacking faults. Further, these altogether made the eutectic phase the most potent contributor to the yield strength accounting for ~30–40% of the estimated value (i.e., cell boundary and eutectic network strengthening combined). Precipitates strengthening was identified as the second most potent mechanism via a shearing process only. Moreover, the presented methodology was able to capture the effect of LPBF processing variables on the individual strengthening contributions, e.g., the effect of a lower laser scanning speed on increasing the cell size as well as the mean precipitate size, which are shown to exhibit opposing impacts on strengthening.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Assessing the Accuracy of Property Model Predictions for Cost Optimization of Desalination Technologies

Accurate modeling of seawater thermophysical and thermodynamic properties is critical for optimizing desalination processes. This study compares three seawater property models, a Reaktoro multicomponent model, the thermophysical seawater properties library from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, and a simplified sodium chloride model, in the context of levelized cost of water (LCOW) minimization for reverse osmosis (RO) and mechanical vapor compression systems. Process simulations and cost optimizations reveal that although all three models yield comparable LCOW and specific energy consumption (SEC) estimates under baseline conditions, deviations among their predictions increase with salinity. Relative differences in LCOW and SEC reach up to 6% and 8%, respectively. RO results show greater variability due to differences in osmotic pressure predictions, which affect pressure constraints at high recoveries. Computational performance varies substantially; specifically, Reaktoro simulations are up to 28 times slower than empirical models due to their detailed equilibrium calculations. These results suggest that empirical models offer acceptable accuracy for routine desalination process design, while Reaktoro provides advantages in scenarios requiring detailed speciation, such as scaling or pH adjustment studies. These findings underscore the importance of selecting appropriate property models based on the modeling objective of desalination applications and motivate future work integrating thermodynamic rigor with empirical efficiency.

Physical and chemical properties↗
DOE OSTI2026

Scattering Processes from Quantum Simulation Algorithms for Scalar Field Theories

We provide practical simulation methods for scalar field theories on a quantum computer that yield improved asymptotics as well as concrete gate estimates for the simulation and physical qubit estimates using the surface code. We achieve these improvements through two optimizations. First, we consider a finite volume approach for estimating the elements of the S-matrix. This approach is appropriate in general for 1+1D and for certain low-energy elastic collisions in higher dimensions. Second, we implement our approach using a series of different fault-tolerant simulation algorithms for Hamiltonians formulated both in the field occupation basis and field amplitude basis. Our algorithms are based on either second-order Trotterization or qubitization. The cost of Trotterization in occupation basis scales as O ( λ N 7 | Ω | 3 / ( M 5 / 2 ϵ 3 / 2 ) ) where λ is the coupling strength, N is the occupation cutoff, | Ω | is the volume of the spatial lattice, M is the mass of the particles and ϵ is the uncertainty in the energy calculation used for the S -matrix determination. Qubitization in the field basis scales as O ( | Ω | 2 ( k 2 Λ + k M 2 ) / ϵ ) , where k is the cutoff in the field and Λ is a scaled coupling constant. We find in both cases that the bounds suggest physically meaningful simulations can be performed using on the order of 4 × 10 6 physical qubits and 10 12 T -gates which corresponds to roughly one day on a superconducting quantum computer with surface code and a cycle time of 100 ns. This places the simulation of scalar field theory within striking distance of the gate counts for the best available chemistry simulation results.

Hardy, Andrew [Toronto U.] (ORCID:0000000235817382↗
DOE OSTI2020

Thermal emittance and lifetime of alkali-antimonide photocathodes grown on GaAs and molybdenum substrates evaluated in a –300 kV dc photogun

In this work, Cs x K y Sb photocathodes grown on GaAs and molybdenum substrates were evaluated using a –300 kV dc high voltage photogun and diagnostic beam line. Photocathodes grown on GaAs substrates, with varying antimony layer thickness (estimated range from <20 nm to >1 um), yielded similar thermal emittance per rms laser spot size values (~0.4 mmmrad=mm) but very different operating lifetime. Similar thermal emittance was obtained for a photocathode grown on a molybdenum substrate but with markedly improved lifetime. For this photocathode, no decay in quantum efficiency was measured at 4.5 mA average current and with peak current 0.55 A at the photocathode.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Health Physics Research Reactor Criticality Accident Alarm System Benchmark Overview [Slides]

This presentation discusses the Health Physics Research Reactor (HPRR) or Fast Burst Reactor (FBR) and how available data from Health Physics Research Reactor (HPRR) operation to can be used to create a benchmark report for inclusion in the ICSBEP, as a Criticality Accident Alarm System (CAAS) shielding benchmark. The evaluation of experimental data is also presented, specifically four experimental candidates are considered of potential value for the benchmark: 1. Neutron source estimation from a HPRR pulse (energy spectrum, fission yield), 2. Threshold Detector Unit (TDU) measurements at different distances from a HPRR pulse, shielded and unshielded, 3. Sulfur pellet activation at different distances from a HPRR pulse, shielded and unshielded, and 4. Total neutron fluence from a HPRR pulse measured by Bonner Sphere Spectrometry, shielded and unshielded. Additionally, a benchmark model overview is discussed as are sample calculation results.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Eta Fragmentation Functions Revisited

We revisit the extraction of parton-to-eta meson fragmentation functions at next-to-leading order accuracy in QCD in the light of the recent hadroproduction measurements in proton-proton collisions obtained by the PHENIX, LHCb, and ALICE collaborations. In addition to an increased precision, the data explore complementary rapidity ranges and center-of-mass system energies. The analysis exploits the theoretical scale dependence to ease tensions among the data sets at different energies that are potentially caused by QCD corrections beyond the next-to-leading order. The resulting set of fragmentation functions yields a consistent description of all available data. Estimates of uncertainties are obtained with the Monte Carlo replica method.

FOS: Physical sciences↗
DOE OSTI2024

Distance Estimate Method for Asymptotic Giant Branch Stars Using Infrared Spectral Energy Distributions

We present a method to estimate distances to asymptotic giant branch (AGB) stars in the Galaxy, using spectral energy distributions (SEDs) in the near- and mid-infrared. By assuming that a given set of source properties (initial mass, stellar temperature, composition, and evolutionary stage) will provide a typical SED shape and brightness, sources are color matched to a distance-calibrated template and thereafter scaled to extract the distance. The method is tested by comparing the distances obtained to those estimated from very long baseline interferometry or Gaia parallax measurements, yielding a strong correlation in both cases. Additional templates are formed by constructing a source sample likely to be close to the Galactic center, and thus with a common, typical distance for calibration of the templates. These first results provide statistical distance estimates to a set of almost 15,000 Milky Way AGB stars belonging to the Bulge Asymmetries and Dynamical Evolution (BAaDE) survey, with typical distance errors of ±35%. With these statistical distances, a map of the intermediate-age population of stars traced by AGBs is formed, and a clear bar structure can be discerned, consistent with the previously reported inclination angle of 30° to the GC–Sun direction vector. These results motivate deeper studies of the AGB population to tease out the intermediate-age stellar distribution throughout the Galaxy, as well as determining statistical properties of the AGB population luminosity and mass-loss-rate distributions.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

BioC2G Tool v1

The BioC2G tool provides an interface for running technoeconomic analyses and life-cycle assessments of biofuel and bioproduct production pathways. Models for the pathways are currently built into the tool: limonene, limonane, bisabolene, bisabolane, ethanol, isoprenol, DMCO, and HEFA. Additionally, a "Custom" option is available for analyzing a bioproduction pathway not included among the built-in examples. Users must supply key product properties and process parameters. Three types of model runs are available in the tool: minimum selling price (MSP), water consumption, and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Running the MSP model yields a breakdown of MSP by major process stage of production, along with a a table of estimated capital expenditures (CAPEX) and annual operating expenditures (OPEX). Running the water consumption and GHG models yields a breakdown of water consumed and carbon emissions respectively, per unit of end product. A breakdown of these metrics by major process stage is also provided. Model run results can be viewed in the web interface numerically and graphically, as well as downloaded in CSV format. Detailed documentation on model methodology and assumptions is also available for download.

Huntington, Tyler↗
DOE OSTI2024

Transient anisotropic kernel for probabilistic learning on manifolds

PLoM (Probabilistic Learning on Manifolds) is a method introduced in 2016 for handling small training datasets by projecting an Itô equation from a stochastic dissipative Hamiltonian dynamical system, acting as the MCMC generator, for which the KDE-estimated probability measure with the training dataset is the invariant measure. PLoM performs a projection on a reduced-order vector basis related to the training dataset, using the diffusion maps (DMAPS) basis constructed with a time-independent isotropic kernel. In this paper, we propose a new ISDE projection vector basis built from a transient anisotropic kernel, providing an alternative to the DMAPS basis to improve statistical surrogates for stochastic manifolds with heterogeneous data. The construction ensures that for times near the initial time, the DMAPS basis coincides with the transient basis. For larger times, the differences between the two bases are characterized by the angle of their spanned vector subspaces. The optimal instant yielding the optimal transient basis is determined using an estimation of mutual information from Information Theory, which is normalized by the entropy estimation to account for the effects of the number of realizations used in the estimations. Consequently, this new vector basis better represents statistical dependencies in the learned probability measure for any dimension. Three applications with varying levels of statistical complexity and data heterogeneity validate the proposed theory, showing that the transient anisotropic kernel improves the learned probability measure.

Diffusion maps↗
DOE OSTI2024

MultiPEM Toolbox: User Manual [Rev. 2]

This document explains use of the Multi-Phenomenology Explosion Monitoring (Multi PEM) Toolbox, a collection of R scripts for estimating the unknown device parameters of a new event with uncertainty quantification. The methodology and application used for illustration in this user manual are fully documented in a Los Alamos National Laboratory technical report hereafter designated “WPA” for reference. Additional details on the application are found in a recent journal article. Two assessment types are available: rapid and complete. Rapid assessments are conducted in two stages, as described in Section 2. In the first stage, calibration data are used to estimate forward and error model parameters (WPA, §5.1) and (if relevant) errors-in-variables yield values for calibration sources (WPA, §3, Equation (3)). In the second stage, new event data are used to estimate the unknown new event device parameters (WPA, §5.2) with uncertainty quantification. Two options for treating the inferred first stage parameters in second stage Bayesian analysis are available: fixing them at their maximum likelihood estimate (default), or multiple imputation. Multiple imputation involves utilizing several posterior samples (imputations) of the first stage parameters as fixed values in the second stage posterior sampling of the new event device parameters. Second stage sampling is conducted across imputations in parallel to improve computational efficiency. This method produces improved uncertainty quantification of the new event device parameters compared with the default treatment of the first stage parameters, at the expense of additional computation. Complete assessments are conducted in a single stage, as described in Section 3. Calibration and (if relevant) new event data are used simultaneously to estimate all forward model, error model, and (if relevant) new event device parameters with uncertainty quantification on the latter. As the name suggests, rapid assessments generally run substantially faster than complete assessments (even with multiple imputation), because the results of first stage analysis can be stored and incorporated into estimating a relatively low-dimensional space of new event device parameters whenever relevant new event data becomes available. On the other hand, complete assessments must be run on the full set of model and device parameters with calibration and new event data every time the latter becomes available.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Site-specific field management adaptation is key to feeding the world in the 21st century

Rapid climate change and growing population threaten global food security across the globe. Several studies have proposed early planting, increased irrigation, and increased fertilizer applications as climate adaptation strategies, yet none have considered combined and site-specific field management strategies as a comprehensive solution. Here, we analyzed non-irrigated wheat yield responses to climate change and field management adaptation using a mechanistic crop model evaluated against observed global non-irrigated wheat-yield over 3-year intervals spanning 13 years at 3749 sites (RMSE = 36 gC m -2 ). Early planting with later-maturing varieties provided the most benefit to future yields among the proposed field management adaptation strategies. Improved water use efficiency from increased CO 2 led to relatively low benefits of additional irrigation. Here we estimated that spatially heterogeneous adaption strategies had the potential to improve global wheat yields by 91% by 2100 compared to the present day. The yield improvements from combined field adaptation strategies were larger than the sum of improvements from the individual strategies. These synergistic benefits were shown to result from complementary processes regulating nutrient and water uptake, physiological tolerance to heat stress, and internal carbon and nutrient cycling.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Information content of spatially distributed ground-based measurements for hydrologic-parameter calibration in mixed rain-snow mountain headwaters

Parameters in hydrologic models used in mixed rain-snow regions are often uncertain to calibrate and overfitted on streamflow. To contribute addressing these challenges, we used an algorithm that assesses modeling performances through time (Dynamic Identifiability Analysis) to quantify the information content of spatially distributed ground-based measurements for identifying optimal parameter values in the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) model. Including spatially distributed ground-based measurements in Identifiability Analysis allowed us to unambiguously estimate more parameter values than only using streamflow (seven parameters instead of two out of a pool of thirty-three). Peaks in information gain were obtained when using dew-point temperature to identify precipitation phase-partitioning parameters. Multi-attribute identifiability analysis also yielded optimal parameter values that were temporally less variable than those estimated using streamflow alone. Overall, identifying parameter values using ground-based measurements improved the simulation of key drivers of the surface-water budget, such as air temperature and precipitation-phase partitioning. However, parameters simulating surface-to-subsurface mass fluxes like snow accumulation and melt or evapotranspiration were poorly identified by any attribute and so emerged as key sources of predictive uncertainty for this distributed-parameter hydrologic model. In conclusion, this work demonstrates the value of expanded ground-based measurements for identifying parameters in distributed-parameter hydrologic models and so diagnosing their conceptual uncertainty across the water budget.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Quantifying mean, variability, and uncertainty in indoor radon exposure in Pennsylvania using random forest and quantile regression forest models

Radon is a naturally occurring radioactive gas that poses a serious health risk as the primary cause of lung cancer in non-smokers. Despite the well-known adverse association with health outcomes, current radon exposure assessments are limited to county-level or average-level estimates, which fail to capture regional variability. This study uses Machine Learning models, including Random Forest (RF) and Quantile Regression Forest (QRF), to estimate the indoor radon concentrations at the ZCTA (Zip code tabulation area)-level and characterize uncertainties in model estimates. Incorporating geological, meteorological, and building-specific data, the models aim to improve radon risk assessment by capturing mean exposure, variability, and extreme concentration levels. Processed radon test data (n = 718,111) were analyzed using average, variability, and quantile prediction methods. Models that estimate the average radon exposure at the ZCTA-level can yield promising model-fit results, but they do not capture the underlying variability of indoor radon exposure within a ZCTA. We utilize volatility analyses to identify characteristics indicative of high variability of indoor radon exposure. We also show that a QRF model can be used to estimate upper quantiles of residential radon exposure, thereby uncovering localized areas of elevated exposure that were not apparent in mean estimates. The results highlighted the need for a deep characterization of exposure risk and show that regions with moderate average exposure levels could still harbor extreme outliers with implications for evaluating health risks. Utilizing multiple radon exposure models allows for a deeper characterization of radon risk within a geographic area and can better identify high-risk areas. The results from this study provide a foundation for developing mitigation strategies and examining associations between radon exposure and health outcomes at fine scales. Future research should extend the geographic scope and incorporate additional environmental risk factors to establish a comprehensive framework for risk assessment.

Lee, Heechan [ORNL]↗
DOE OSTI2025

Persistent Sampling: Enhancing the Efficiency of Sequential Monte Carlo

Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) samplers are powerful tools for Bayesian inference but suffer from high computational costs due to their reliance on large particle ensembles for accurate estimates. We introduce persistent sampling (PS), an extension of SMC that systematically retains and reuses particles from all prior iterations to construct a growing, weighted ensemble. By leveraging multiple importance sampling and resampling from a mixture of historical distributions, PS mitigates the need for excessively large particle counts, directly addressing key limitations of SMC such as particle impoverishment and mode collapse. Crucially, PS achieves this without additional likelihood evaluations-weights for persistent particles are computed using cached likelihood values. This framework not only yields more accurate posterior approximations but also produces marginal likelihood estimates with significantly lower variance, enhancing reliability in model comparison. Furthermore, the persistent ensemble enables efficient adaptation of transition kernels by leveraging a larger, decorrelated particle pool. Experiments on high-dimensional Gaussian mixtures, hierarchical models, and non-convex targets demonstrate that PS consistently outperforms standard SMC and related variants, including recycled and waste-free SMC, achieving substantial reductions in mean squared error for posterior expectations and evidence estimates, all at reduced computational cost. PS thus establishes itself as a robust, scalable, and efficient alternative for complex Bayesian inference tasks.

Karamanis, Minas↗
DOE OSTI2020

Filtering adaptive output feedback control for multivariable nonlinear systems with mismatched uncertainties and unmodeled dynamics

This article synthesizes a filtering adaptive output feedback controller for multivariable nonlinear systems with mismatched uncertainties and unmodeled dynamics. The multivariable nonlinear systems under consideration have both matched and mismatched uncertainties, which satisfy the semiglobal Lipschitz condition. The unmodeled dynamics are bounded-input bounded-output stable. By adopting an estimation/cancellation strategy, a piecewise constant adaptive law drives the estimation error to zero at every time instant, which yields the adaptive parameters; a disturbance rejection control law is designed to compensate the nonlinear uncertainties within the bandwidth of low-pass filters. The matched uncertainties are cancelled directly by adopting their opposite in the control signal, while a dynamic inversion of the system is required to eliminate the effect of the mismatched uncertainties on the output. A feedforward control law is designed to track a given command. Since the virtual reference system defines the best performance that can be achieved by the closed-loop system, the uniform performance bounds are derived for the states and control signals via comparison. Both numerical and practical examples are provided to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed filtering adaptive output feedback control architecture, comparisons with the model reference adaptive control demonstrates the superiority of the proposed control method.

filtering adaptive control, mismatched uncertainit↗
DOE OSTI2021

Forecasting Multi-Wave Epidemics Through Bayesian Inference

We present a simple, near-real-time Bayesian method to infer and forecast a multiwave outbreak, and demonstrate it on the COVID-19 pandemic. The approach uses timely epidemiological data that has been widely available for COVID-19. It provides short-term forecasts of the outbreak’s evolution, which can then be used for medical resource planning. The method postulates one- and multiwave infection models, which are convolved with the incubation-period distribution to yield competing disease models. The disease models’ parameters are estimated via Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling and information-theoretic criteria are used to select between them for use in forecasting. The method is demonstrated on two- and three-wave COVID-19 outbreaks in California, New Mexico and Florida, as observed during Summer-Winter 2020. We find that the method is robust to noise, provides useful forecasts (along with uncertainty bounds) and that it reliably detected when the initial single-wave COVID-19 outbreaks transformed into successive surges as containment efforts in these states failed by the end of Spring 2020.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗