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DOE OSTI2020

Network reconfiguration and distributed energy resource scheduling for improved distribution system resilience

Electric utility companies work to restore as much load as possible after power outages caused by extreme weather events. In this paper, an outage management strategy is proposed to enhance distribution system resilience through network reconfiguration and distributed energy resources (DERs) scheduling. After a line fault, the proposed algorithm can identify radial network topology based on the rank of the incidence matrix. The reconfiguration is implemented by switching tie lines and sectionalizing lines. With the new network topology, an optimal DER scheduling problem is solved to minimize the accumulative cost for dispatchable DER operation and load reduction. Finally, the optimal topology that minimizes the accumulative cost is selected from all radial topologies. The computational workload is relatively low because only linear programming needs to be solved. Using the case studies of the IEEE 69-bus and IEEE 123-bus systems, we consider the worst-case scenarios in which faults occur in the upstream feeder. The simulation results demonstrate that the proposed strategy allows for a relatively high percentage of the load to remain in service after line faults. Furthermore, compared with microgrid-formation approaches, the proposed strategy has advantages when applied to the distribution systems with several normally-open tie lines and low DER penetration.

42 ENGINEERING↗

NASA NTRS2000

The Evolution of Tropical Precipitation Patterns During ENSO Events Using 21+ Years of GPCP Merged Data

The ENSO phenomenon is characterized by fluctuations in the climate system of the tropical Pacific. Quantifying changes in the precipitation component of this system is important in understanding the distribution of heating in the atmosphere which drives the large-scale circulation and affects the weather patterns in the mid-latitudes. Monitoring precipitation anomalies in the Pacific is also an important component for tracking the evolution of ENSO. The most timely and complete observations of the earth come from satellite instruments. In this study, the state of the art satellite-gauge merged monthly precipitation data set from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) is used to depict tropical rainfall patterns during ENSO events over the past two decades and quantify these patterns using indices. This analysis will be complemented by daily precipitation data which can resolve the Madden-Julian Oscillation and westerly wind burst events. The 1997-98 El Nino and 1998-2000 La Nina were the best observed ENSO cycle in the historic record. Prior to the El Nino (in terms of anomalous warming of the east Pacific) dry anomalies over the Maritime Continent were observed in February 1997 as a westerly wind burst advected convection to the east. The largest SST anomalies occurred around November-December 1997, which were followed by the largest precipitation anomalies in the beginning of 1998. The largest precipitation departures from normal were not colocated with the SST anomalies, but were further west, In the spring of 1998 negative precipitation anomalies to the north of the equator intensified, signaling the mature phase of the El Nino. A rapid increase in the precipitation-based La Nina index from December-January 1998 to March-April 1998 signaled the coming La Nina. The 1982-1983 El Nino was comparable in strength (according to several indices) and the precipitation patterns evolved in a similar fashion. For the 1998-2000 La Nina, the coldest anomalies, were confined to the central equatorial Pacific, while the driest anomalies were found in the west Pacific,

Curtis, Scott↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Florida Water Resources: Assessing Coastal Resiliency Across Florida's Aquatic Preserves Response To Hurricane Forces

Intensifying weather events, sea level rise, and extensive coastal development in Southwestern Florida are escalating the need for Florida’s mangrove conservation. These mangroves are imperative for coastline stabilization, habitat provision for native species, and water quality management. Our partner, the Florida Department of Environmental Protection (FDEP), Office of Resilience and Coastal Protection is tasked with monitoring and conserving the Charlotte Harbor, Estero Bay, Rookery Bay, and Pinellas County Aquatic Preserves. We developed the Growth, Resilience, and Optical Vegetation Evaluator (GROVE) Google Earth Engine toolset for partners to determine mangrove forest extent through time, analyze mangrove forest health, and collect several water quality parameters within the preserves from January 2002–August 2022. The toolset provides easily accessible data from Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+), Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI), Landsat 9 Operational Land Imager 2 (OLI-2), and the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM). Using training datasets of known mangrove forest locations, we also established a machine learning approach to create mangrove extent maps. Maps from all four preserves indicated migration of mangrove forests inland as the greatest areas of change were transitional zones. Additionally, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), normalized difference turbidity index (NDTI), and chlorophyll-a maps were generated for the partners. This project provides decision makers with a useful tool for understanding temporal changes in Florida’s aquatic preserves, identifying areas of ecological stress, and providing actionable data to make informed plans for mangrove preservation.

Samuel Perrello↗

NASA NTRS2022

Florida Water Resources: Assessing Coastal Resiliency Across Florida's Aquatic Preserves in Response to Hurricane Forces

Remote sensing↗

DOE OSTI2024

Satellite-based aerosol optical depth estimates over the continental U.S. during the 2020 wildfire season: Roles of smoke and land cover

Wildfires produce smoke that can affect an area >1000 times the burn extent, with far-reaching human health, ecologic, and economic impacts. Accurately estimating aerosol load within smoke plumes is therefore crucial for understanding and mitigating these impacts. We evaluated the effectiveness of the latest Collection 6.1 MODIS Multi-Angle Implementation of Atmospheric Correction (MAIAC) algorithm in estimating aerosol optical depth (AOD) across the U.S. during the historic 2020 wildfire season. We compared satellite-based MAIAC AOD to ground-based AERONET AOD measurements during no-, light-, medium-, and heavy-smoke conditions identified using the Hazard Mapping System Fire and Smoke Product. This smoke product consists of maximum extent smoke polygons digitized by analysts using visible band imagery and classified according to smoke density. We also examined the strength of the correlations between satellite- and ground-based AOD for major land cover types under various smoke density levels. MAIAC performed well in estimating AOD during smoke-affected conditions. Correlations between MAIAC and AERONET AOD were strong for medium- (r = 0.91) and heavy-smoke (r = 0.90) density, and MAIAC estimates of AOD showed little bias relative to ground-based AERONET measurements (normalized mean bias = 3 % for medium, 5 % for heavy smoke). During two high AOD, heavy smoke episodes, MAIAC underestimated ground-based AERONET AOD under mixed aerosol (i.e., smoke and dust; median bias = −0.08) and overestimated AOD under smoke-dominated (median bias = 0.02) aerosol. MAIAC most overestimated ground-based AERONET AOD over barren land (mean NMB = 48 %). Our findings indicate that MODIS MAIAC can provide robust estimates of AOD as smoke density increases in coming years. Increased frequency of mixed aerosol and expansion of developed land could affect the performance of the MAIAC algorithm in the future, however, with implications for evaluating wildfire-associated health and welfare effects and air quality standards.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2011

A Real-Time MODIS Vegetation Composite for Land Surface Models and Short-Term Forecasting

The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center is producing real-time, 1- km resolution Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) gridded composites over a Continental U.S. domain. These composites are updated daily based on swath data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensor aboard the polar orbiting NASA Aqua and Terra satellites, with a product time lag of about one day. A simple time-weighting algorithm is applied to the NDVI swath data that queries the previous 20 days of data to ensure a continuous grid of data populated at all pixels. The daily composites exhibited good continuity both spatially and temporally during June and July 2010. The composites also nicely depicted high greenness anomalies that resulted from significant rainfall over southwestern Texas, Mexico, and New Mexico during July due to early-season tropical cyclone activity. The SPoRT Center is in the process of computing greenness vegetation fraction (GVF) composites from the MODIS NDVI data at the same spatial and temporal resolution for use in the NASA Land Information System (LIS). The new daily GVF dataset would replace the monthly climatological GVF database (based on Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer [AVHRR] observations from 1992-93) currently available to the Noah land surface model (LSM) in both LIS and the public version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The much higher spatial resolution (1 km versus 0.15 degree) and daily updates based on real-time satellite observations have the capability to greatly improve the simulation of the surface energy budget in the Noah LSM within LIS and WRF. Once code is developed in LIS to incorporate the daily updated GVFs, the SPoRT Center will conduct simulation sensitivity experiments to quantify the impacts and improvements realized by the MODIS real-time GVF data. This presentation will describe the methodology used to develop the 1-km MODIS NDVI composites and show sample output from summer 2010, compare the MODIS GVF data to the AVHRR monthly climatology, and illustrate the sensitivity of the Noah LSM within LIS and/or the coupled LIS/WRF system to the new MODIS GVF dataset.

Case, Jonathan L.↗

NASA NTRS1998

A Compendium of Wind Statistics and Models for the NASA Space Shuttle and Other Aerospace Vehicle Programs

The wind profile with all of its variations with respect to altitude has been, is now, and will continue to be important for aerospace vehicle design and operations. Wind profile databases and models are used for the vehicle ascent flight design for structural wind loading, flight control systems, performance analysis, and launch operations. This report presents the evolution of wind statistics and wind models from the empirical scalar wind profile model established for the Saturn Program through the development of the vector wind profile model used for the Space Shuttle design to the variations of this wind modeling concept for the X-33 program. Because wind is a vector quantity, the vector wind models use the rigorous mathematical probability properties of the multivariate normal probability distribution. When the vehicle ascent steering commands (ascent guidance) are wind biased to the wind profile measured on the day-of-launch, ascent structural wind loads are reduced and launch probability is increased. This wind load alleviation technique is recommended in the initial phase of vehicle development. The vehicle must fly through the largest load allowable versus altitude to achieve its mission. The Gumbel extreme value probability distribution is used to obtain the probability of exceeding (or not exceeding) the load allowable. The time conditional probability function is derived from the Gumbel bivariate extreme value distribution. This time conditional function is used for calculation of wind loads persistence increments using 3.5-hour Jimsphere wind pairs. These increments are used to protect the commit-to-launch decision. Other topics presented include the Shuttle Shuttle load-response to smoothed wind profiles, a new gust model, and advancements in wind profile measuring systems. From the lessons learned and knowledge gained from past vehicle programs, the development of future launch vehicles can be accelerated. However, new vehicle programs by their very nature will require specialized support for new databases and analyses for wind, atmospheric parameters (pressure, temperature, and density versus altitude), and weather. It is for this reason that project managers are encouraged to collaborate with natural environment specialists early in the conceptual design phase. Such action will give the lead time necessary to meet the natural environment design and operational requirements, and thus, reduce development costs.

Smith, O. E.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Dynamic subcanopy leaf traits drive resistance of net primary production across a disturbance severity gradient

Across the globe, the forest carbon sink is increasingly vulnerable to an expanding array of low- to moderate-severity disturbances. However, some forest ecosystems exhibit functional resistance (i.e., the capacity of ecosystems to continue functioning as usual) following disturbances such as extreme weather events and insect or fungal pathogen outbreaks. Unlike severe disturbances (e.g., stand-replacing wildfires), moderate severity disturbances do not always result in near-term declines in forest production because of the potential for compensatory growth, including enhanced subcanopy production. Community-wide shifts in subcanopy plant functional traits, prompted by disturbance-driven environmental change, may play a key mechanistic role in resisting declines in net primary production (NPP) up to thresholds of canopy loss. However, the temporal dynamics of these shifts, as well as the upper limits of disturbance for which subcanopy production can compensate, remain poorly characterized. In this study, we leverage a 4-year dataset from an experimental forest disturbance in northern Michigan to assess subcanopy community trait shifts as well as their utility in predicting ecosystem NPP resistance across a wide range of implemented disturbance severities. Through mechanical girdling of stems, we achieved a gradient of severity from 0% (i.e., control) to 45, 65, and 85% targeted gross canopy defoliation, replicated across four landscape ecosystems broadly representative of the Upper Great Lakes ecoregion. We found that three of four examined subcanopy community weighted mean (CWM) traits including leaf photosynthetic rate (p = 0.04), stomatal conductance (p = 0.07), and the red edge normalized difference vegetation index (p < 0.0001) shifted rapidly following disturbance but before widespread changes in subcanopy light environment triggered by canopy tree mortality. Surprisingly, stimulated subcanopy production fully compensated for upper canopy losses across our gradient of experimental severities, achieving complete resistance (i.e., no significant interannual differences from control) of whole ecosystem NPP even in the 85% disturbance treatment. Additionally, we identified a probable mechanistic switch from nutrient-driven to light-driven trait shifts as disturbance progressed. Our findings suggest that remotely sensed traits such as the red edge normalized difference vegetation index (reNDVI) could be particularly sensitive and robust predictors of production response to disturbance, even across compositionally diverse forests. The potential of leaf spectral indices to predict post-disturbance functional resistance is promising given the capabilities of airborne to satellite remote sensing. We conclude that dynamic functional trait shifts following disturbance can be used to predict production response across a wide range of disturbance severities.

resistance↗

NASA NTRS2007

Solar Cycle #24 and the Solar Dynamo

We focus on two solar aspects related to flight dynamics. These are the solar dynamo and long-term solar activity predictions. The nature of the solar dynamo is central to solar activity predictions, and these predictions are important for orbital planning of satellites in low earth orbit (LEO). The reason is that the solar ultraviolet (UV) and extreme ultraviolet (EUV) spectral irradiances inflate the upper atmospheric layers of the Earth, forming the thermosphere and exosphere through which these satellites orbit. Concerning the dynamo, we discuss some recent novel approaches towards its understanding. For solar predictions we concentrate on a solar precursor method, in which the Sun s polar field plays a major role in forecasting the next cycle s activity based upon the Babcock- Leighton dynamo. With a current low value for the Sun s polar field, this method predicts that solar cycle #24 will be one of the lowest in recent times, with smoothed F10.7 radio flux values peaking near 130+ 30 (2 4, in the 2013 timeframe. One may have to consider solar activity as far back as the early 20th century to find a cycle of comparable magnitude. Concomitant effects of low solar activity upon satellites in LEO will need to be considered, such as enhancements in orbital debris. Support for our prediction of a low solar cycle #24 is borne out by the lack of new cycle sunspots at least through the first half of 2007. Usually at the present epoch in the solar cycle (-7+ years after the last solar maximum), for a normal size following cycle, new cycle sunspots would be seen. The lack of their appearance at this time is only consistent with a low cycle #24. Polar field observations of a weak magnitude are consistent with unusual structures seen in the Sun s corona. Polar coronal holes are the hallmarks of the Sun s open field structures. At present, it appears that the polar coronal holes are relatively weak, and there have been many equatorial coronal holes. This appears consistent with a weakening polar field, but coronal hole data must be scrutinized carefully as observing techniques have changed. We also discuss new solar dynamo ideas, and the SODA (Solar Dynamo Amplitude) index, which provides the user with the ability to track the Sun s hidden, dynamo magnetic fields throughout the various stages of the Sun s cycle. Our solar dynamo ideas are a modernization and rejuvenation of the Babcock-Leighton original idea of a shallow solar dynamo, using modem observations that appear to support their shallow dynamo viewpoint. We are in awe of being able to see an object the size of the Sun undergoing as dramatic a change as our model provides in a few short years. The Sun, however, has undergone changes as rapid as this before! The weather on the Sun is at least as fickle as the weather on the Earth.

Pesnell, W. Dean↗

NASA NTRS2007

Solar Cycle #24 and the Solar Dynamo

We focus on two solar aspects related to flight dynamics. These are the solar dynamo and long-term solar activity predictions. The nature of the solar dynamo is central to solar activity predictions, and these predictions are important for orbital planning of satellites in low earth orbit (LEO). The reason is that the solar ultraviolet (UV) and extreme ultraviolet (EUV) spectral irradiances inflate the upper atmospheric layers of the Earth, forming the thermosphere and exosphere through which these satellites orbit. Concerning the dynamo, we discuss some recent novel approaches towards its understanding. For solar predictions we concentrate on a solar precursor method, in which the Sun's polar field plays a major role in forecasting the next cycle s activity based upon the Babcock-Leighton dynamo. With a current low value for the Sun s polar field, this method predicts that solar cycle #24 will be one of the lowest in recent times, with smoothed F10.7 radio flux values peaking near 130 plus or minus 30 (2 sigma), in the 2013 timeframe. One may have to consider solar activity as far back as the early 20th century to find a cycle of comparable magnitude. Concomitant effects of low solar activity upon satellites in LEO will need to be considered, such as enhancements in orbital debris. Support for our prediction of a low solar cycle #24 is borne out by the lack of new cycle sunspots at least through the first half of 2007. Usually at the present epoch in the solar cycle (approx. 7+ years after the last solar maximum), for a normal size following cycle, new cycle sunspots would be seen. The lack of their appearance at this time is only consistent with a low cycle #24. Polar field observations of a weak magnitude are consistent with unusual structures seen in the Sun s corona. Polar coronal holes are the hallmarks of the Sun's open field structures. At present, it appears that the polar coronal holes are relatively weak, and there have been many equatorial coronal holes. This appears consistent with a weakening polar field, but coronal hole data must be scrutinized carefully as observing techniques have changed. We also discuss new solar dynamo ideas, and the SODA (SOlar Dynamo Amplitude) index, which provides the user with the ability to track the Sun's hidden, dynamo magnetic fields throughout the various stages of the Sun's cycle. Our solar dynamo ideas are a modernization and rejuvenation of the Babcock-Leighton original idea of a shallow solar dynamo, using modern observations that appear to support their shallow dynamo viewpoint. We are in awe of being able to see an object the size of the Sun undergoing as dramatic a change as our model provides in a few short years. The Sun, however, has undergone changes as rapid as this before! The weather on the Sun is at least as fickle as the weather on the Earth.

Schatten, Kenneth↗

NASA NTRS2005

Formation of Nanophase Iron in Lunar Soil Simulant for Use in ISRU Studies

For the prospective return of humans to the Moon and the extensive amount of premonitory studies necessary, large quantities of lunar soil simulants are required, for a myriad of purposes from construction/engineering purposes all the way to medical testing of its effects from ingestion by humans. And there is only a limited and precious quantity of lunar soil available on Earth (i.e., Apollo soils) - therefore, the immediate need for lunar soil simulants. Since the Apollo era, there have been several simulants; of these JSC-1 (Johnson Space Center) and MLS-1 (Minnesota Lunar Simulant) have been the most widely used. JSC-1 was produced from glassy volcanic tuff in order to approximate lunar soil geotechnical properties; whereas, MLS-1 approximates the chemistry of Apollo 11 high-Ti soil, 10084. Stocks of both simulants are depleted, but JSC-1 has recently gone back into production. The lunar soil simulant workshop, held at Marshall Space Flight Center in January 2005, identified the need to make new simulants for the special properties of lunar soil, such as nanophase iron (np-Fe(sup 0). Hill et al. (2005, this volume) showed the important role of microscale Fe(sup 0) in microwave processing of the lunar soil simulants JSC-1 and MLS-1. Lunar soil is formed by space weathering of lunar rocks (e.g., micrometeorite impact, cosmic particle bombardment). Glass generated during micrometeorite impact cements rock and mineral fragments together to form aggregates called agglutinates, and also produces vapor that is deposited and coats soil grains. Taylor et al. (2001) showed that the relative amount of impact glass in lunar soil increases with decreasing grain size and is the most abundant component in lunar dust (less than 20 micrometer fraction). Notably, the magnetic susceptibility of lunar soil also increases with the decreasing grain size, as a function of the amount of nanophase-sized Fe(sup 0) in impact-melt generated glass. Keller et al. (1997, 1999) also discovered the presence of abundant np-Fe(sup 0) particles in the glass patinas coating most soil particles. Therefore, the correlation of glass content and magnetic susceptibility can be explained by the presence of the np-Feo particles in glass: small particles contain relatively more np-Fe(sup 0) as glass coatings because the surface area versus mass ratio of the grain size is so increased. The magnetic properties of lunar soil are important in dust mitigation on the Moon (Taylor et al. 2005). Thus material simulating this property is important for testing mitigation methods using electromagnetic field. This np- Fe(sup 0) also produces a unique energy coupling to normal microwaves, such as present in kitchen microwave ovens. Effectively, a portion of lunar soil placed in a normal 2.45 GHz oven will melt at greater than 1200 C before your tea will boil at 100 C, a startling and new discovery reported by Taylor and Meek (2004, 2005). Several methods have been investigated in attempts to make nanophase-sized Feo dispersed within silicate glass; like in the lunar glass. We have been successful in synthesizing such a product and continue to improve on our recipe. We have performed extensive experimentation on this subject to date. Ultimately it will probably be necessary to add this np-Fe(sup 0) bearing silicate glass to lunar soil stimulant, like JSC-1, to actually produce the desired magnetic and microwave coupling properties for use in appropriate ISRU experimentation.

Liu, Yang↗

NASA NTRS1993

A satellite-borne radar wind sensor (RAWS)

Modeling global atmospheric circulations and forecasting the weather would improve if worldwide information on winds aloft were available. Accurate prediction of weather is important to agriculture, shipping, air traffic, and many other fields. Global system models of climate are of great importance. Current global atmospheric models use pressure measurements and thermodynamic properties to calculate the effects of wind for use in Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models. Inputs to the NWP models are temperature, pressure and wind velocities at different heights. Clearly direct wind measurements could significantly improve the NWP model performance. The RAdar Wind Sounder (RAWS) program at the University of Kansas is a study of the feasibility and the trade-offs in the design of a space-based radar system to measure wind vectors. This can be done by measuring the Doppler shift of cloud and rain returns from three or more points and calculating the components of the wind vector. The RAWS study to date uses the candidate system selected after preliminary study of frequencies and sensitivities. Two frequencies chosen, 10 and 35 GHz, allow higher sensitivity for clouds and more penetration for rain. The past year was devoted to modeling the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) achievable for the two frequencies. The determination of SNR versus cloud penetration depth used a cloud backscattering and attenuation model in the appropriate radar equation. Calculations assumed reasonable losses in reception and transmission, in addition to the atmospheric attenuation. We discovered that ice clouds provide a higher SNR than previously calculated, but some water clouds give lower SNRs than we calculated before. One of the primary issues in the SNR calculation was the choice of the drop size distribution. Although Xin used several distributions (e.g., log normal, Khrigian and Mazin), this year we used the Deirmendjian cloud model. SNR versus cloud penetration plots were generated to validate the candidate system. Rain, which appears in the cloud models at the lower altitudes, provides ample SNR, as do the higher clouds composed of ice particles. However, in some cloud situations we found the sensitivity for the clouds was marginal or inadequate. At 35 GHz, two of the cloud models characterized by 1 to 2 g/cu m of water content at altitudes extending from 150 to 1500 meters, produced a sufficient SNR. Other models, however, with water contents ranging from 0.5 to 4 g/cu m and altitudes up to 4000 meters, exhibit SNR of -3 to -23 dB, largely because of attenuation in the upper cloud layers. These results coupled with the lower SNR at 10 GHz, led to an investigation of alternate frequencies. The rain present beneath these clouds provides adequate SNR at 10 GHz, and in most cases, at GHz.

Moore, Richard K.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Connecting Large‐Scale Meteorological Patterns to Extratropical Cyclones in CMIP6 Climate Models Using Self‐Organizing Maps

Abstract Extratropical cyclones (ETCs) are responsible for the majority of cool‐season extreme events in the northeastern United States (NEUS), often leading to high‐impact weather conditions that can have wide‐ranging socioeconomic impacts. Evaluating the ability of climate models to adequately simulate ETC dynamics is essential for improving model performance and increasing confidence in future projections used by stakeholders and policymakers. ETCs are traditionally studied using techniques such as case studies and synoptic typing, however, these approaches can be time‐consuming, require subjective analysis, and do not necessarily identify the coincident large‐scale meteorological patterns (LSMPs). Here, we apply self‐organizing maps (SOMs) as an automated machine‐learning approach to characterize the LSMPs and associated frequency and intensity of discrete ETC events over NEUS. The dominant patterns of geopotential height variability are identified through SOM analysis of five reanalysis products during the last four decades. ETC events are tracked using TempestExtremes and are integrated with SOMs to classify the accumulated cyclone activity (ACA) associated with each pattern. We then evaluate the skill of CMIP6 historical experiments in simulating the LSMPs and ETC events identified in the SOM. Our results identify a robust bias toward more zonal patterns, with models struggling to reproduce the more amplified patterns typically associated with the highest cyclone activity. While model resolution has some impact on simulation credibility, model configuration appears to be more important in LSMP representation. The vast majority of CMIP6 models produce too few ETCs, although model errors are distributed around historical reanalyses when ACA is normalized by storm frequency.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Global River Topology (GRIT): A Bifurcating River Hydrography

Existing global river networks underpin a wide range of hydrological applications but do not represent channels with divergent river flows (bifurcations, multi‐threaded channels, canals), as these features defy the convergent flow assumption that elevation‐derived networks (e.g., HydroSHEDS, MERIT Hydro) are based on. Yet, bifurcations are important features of the global river drainage system, especially on large floodplains and river deltas, and are also often found in densely populated regions. Here we developed the first raster and vector‐based Global RIver Topology that not only represents the tributaries of the global drainage network but also the distributaries, including multi‐threaded rivers, canals and deltas. We achieve this by merging a 30 m Landsat‐based river mask with elevation‐generated streams to ensure a homogeneous drainage density outside of the river mask for rivers narrower than approximately 30 m. Crucially, we employ the new 30 m digital terrain model, FABDEM, based on TanDEM‐X, which shows greater accuracy over the traditionally used SRTM derivatives. After vectorization and pruning, directionality is assigned by a series of elevation, flow angle and continuity approaches. The new global network and its attributes are validated using gauging stations, comparison with existing networks, and randomized manual checks. The new network represents 19.6 million km of streams and rivers with drainage areas greater than 50 km 2 and includes 67,495 bifurcations. With the advent of hyper‐resolution modeling and artificial intelligence, GRIT is expected to greatly improve the accuracy of many river‐based applications such as flood forecasting, water availability and quality simulations, or riverine habitat mapping.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Empirical Estimation of the Energy Impacts of Projects Installed through Residential Property Assessed Clean Energy Financing Programs in California

We examine the energy use impacts of energy efficiency and solar PV projects financed by residential property assessed clean energy (R-PACE) programs in California. We leverage household-level interval meter data to apply normalized metered energy consumption (NMEC) methods at significant scale—more than 25,000 electric meters and more than 15,000 gas meters. We develop a comparison group to account for non-project-related changes in usage. The projects include homes that replaced existing HVAC equipment with higher-efficiency units and homes that installed central heating or air conditioning equipment for the first time. We have limited information on pre-project household equipment stock so we develop a method to infer new installations. We find that projects that installed energy efficiency technologies reduce electricity consumption by approximately 3% and gas consumption by approximately 3.5% on average. When we remove homes that installed new cooling and heating equipment for the first time, savings rise to approximately 5% for electricity and approximately 6% for gas. Given the California climate and the results of an existing study of similar California projects, these results are in line with expectations. Solar PV projects produce electricity that offsets approximately 69% of household electricity consumption on average. We estimate that California R-PACE projects installed through the end of 2019 produce annual reductions in grid-tied electricity consumption of 506 GWh (equivalent to the electricity consumption of approximately 74,000 California households) and gas consumption reductions of 2 million therms (equivalent to the gas consumption of approximately 4700 California households) in a typical weather year.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

NASA NTRS2010

Lightning Reporting at 45th Weather Squadron: Recent Improvements

The 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) provides daily lightning reports to space launch customers at CCAFS/KSC. These reports are provided to assess the need to inspect the electronics of satellite payloads, space launch vehicles, and ground support equipment for induced current damage from nearby lightning strokes. The 45 WS has made several improvements to the lightning reports during 2008-2009. The 4DLSS, implemented in April 2008, provides all lightning strokes as opposed to just one stroke per flash as done by the previous system. The 45 WS discovered that the peak current was being truncated to the nearest kilo amp in the database used to generate the daily lightning reports, which led to an up to 4% underestimate in the peak current for average lightning. This error was corrected and led to elimination of this underestimate. The 45 WS and their mission partners developed lightning location error ellipses for 99% and 95% location accuracies tailored to each individual stroke and began providing them in the spring of 2009. The new procedure provides the distance from the point of interest to the best location of the stroke (the center of the error ellipse) and the distance to the closest edge of the ellipse. This information is now included in the lightning reports, along with the peak current of the stroke. The initial method of calculating the error ellipses could only be used during normal duty hours, i.e. not during nights, weekends, or holidays. This method was improved later to provide lightning reports in near real-time, 24/7. The calculation of the distance to the closest point on the ellipse was also significantly improved later. Other improvements were also implemented. A new method to calculate the probability of any nearby lightning stroke. being within any radius of any point of interest was developed and is being implemented. This may supersede the use of location error ellipses. The 45 WS is pursuing adding data from nine NLDN sensors into 4DLSS in real-time. This will overcome the problem of 4DLSS missing some of the strong local strokes. This will also improve the location accuracy, reduce the size and eccentricity of the location error ellipses, and reduce the probability of nearby strokes being inside the areas of interest when few of the 4DLSS sensors are used in the stroke solution. This will not reduce 4DLSS performance when most of the 4DLSS sensors are used in the stroke solution. Finally, several possible future improvements were discussed, especially for improving the peak current estimate and the error estimate for peak current, and upgrading the 4DLSS. Some possible approaches for both of these goals were discussed.

Finn, Frank C.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Dynamically Downscaled (WRF) 1km, Hourly Meteorological Conditions 1987-2020. East/Taylor Watersheds

This dataset contains meteorological output from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) version 3.8.1. This dataset has been created to 1) investigate hydrometeorological processes impacting the East River and water-delivery to the Critical Zone, and 2) provide meteorological forcing data for distributed Earth-science modeling applications in the East River watershed. Variables have a 1 kilometer spatial resolution and hourly temporal resolution and encompass a rectangular region encompassing the East and Taylor River watersheds, Colorado, near the town of Crested Butte. WRF was forced using Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) lateral boundary conditions. Each .zip file contains one "water year" of data (October 1 -- September 30; i.e. water year 2017 starts October 1, 2016 and ends September 30, 2017). Each zip folder contains 12 netcdf (.nc) files containing one month of hourly data each and are approximately 250mb. Model timestamps are in UTC time.The files contain the following data variables:EAST_MASK: binary mask of the watershed regionTAYLOR_MASK: binary mask of the watershed regionGLW downwelling longwave radiation (w/m2)HR_PRCP: Hourly Precipitation Rate (mm/hr). Includes all hydrometeors (solid+liquid). HFX NoahMP LSM total grid-cell modelled sensible heat flux (w/m2) [positive towards atmosphere]LH NoahMP LSM total grid-cell modelled latent heat flux (w/m2) [positive towards atmosphere; can be converted to ET]PSFC Surface Barometric Pressure (hPa)Q2 Two-meter specific humidity (kg/kg)SWDOWN Downwelling shortwave solar radiation (w/m2)SWNORM Terrain-normal downwelling shortwave radiation (w/m2)T2 Two-meter air temperature (deg K)U10 10-m U-component of wind velocity (m/s)V10 10m V-component of wind velocity (m/s)XLAT Latitude of grid-center point XLONG Longitude of grid-center point XTIME Model timestamp, **in UTC**

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2022

Surface Biology and Geology (SBG) Thermal Infrared (TIR) Free -Flyer Concept

Scientists and engineers from the United States and Italy are developing a thermal infrared (TIR) free-flyer concept that forms an essential element of the NASA Surface Biology & Geology (SBG) designated observable and the greater NASA Earth System Observatory (ESO), which also includes observations of aerosols, clouds, convection, and precipitation; mass change; and surface deformation & change.In response to the recommendations from the 2017 National Academies decadal survey for Earth science, NASA initiated the SBG designated observable with five key research and applications focus areas: ecosystems and natural resources, hydrology, weather, climate, and solid Earth. SBG includes spaceborne measurements of hyperspectral imagery in the visible to shortwave infrared (0.4-2.5 um) and multispectral imagery in the mid and thermal infrared (3-12 um) that provide the remote sensing data needed to inform each research and applications area. High-level TIR data products include Earth surface temperature & emissivity, evapotranspiration, substrate composition, volcanic plumes, and high-temperature features. While the science, applications, and technology build on prior mission studies conducted for more than a decade, it has only been recently that a joint team of scientists and engineers from the NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), Agenzia Spaziale Italiana (ASI), Istituto Nazionale Geofisica e Volcanologia (INGV), and the Istituto Nazionale Astrofisica (INAF) have developed a compelling concept for a TIR free-flyer. In this concept, the TIR instrument is an eight-band radiometer. Seven of the bands are between 3 and 12 um with an additional band at 1.65 um. The instrument’s 68.8 deg total viewing angle and the free-flyer’s 665 km operational altitude results in a ground sampling distance (GSD) of <60 m at nadir, produces a swath width of 935 km, and allows for a 2-3-day revisit time. A two-band visible and near infrared (VNIR) camera, with <30 m GSD at nadir and 935 km swath width, will complement the TIR instrument. VNIR high-level data products include top & bottom of atmosphere reflectance and normalized difference vegetation indices (NDVI). The TIR instrument and VNIR camera will be mounted on a PLATiNO+ spacecraft, a multi-application, reconfigurable, and scalable platform. The launcher selected for the TIR free-flyer is the VEGA-C. To maximize the science and applications benefits the SBG-TIR free-flyer team are collaborating with personnel from the ESA Land Surface Temperature Monitoring mission (LSTM) as well individuals from the Thermal Infrared Imaging Satellite for High-resolution Natural resource Assessment (TRISHNA), a joint mission by CNES and ISRO. Pre-Phase A concept studies for the SBG-TIR free-flyer commenced in the spring 2021. This allows for the concept to be refined; for technical risks to be identified and mitigated, as necessary; and strategies for reducing the development schedule to be defined and assessed before conducting a NASA-ASI Mission Concept Review (MCR) in the spring of 2022 and a NASA Key Decision Point-A (KDP-A) as early as the summer of 2022. These are key milestones in being able to launch and begin operating the SBG-TIR free-flyer in the second half of the decade, so that many of the questions posed by the National Academies in the 2017 decadal survey can be answered.

Fabrizia-Buongiorno, Maria↗