Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “vulnerability assessment”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 361 records · Page 20

Smart Microgrids

The Nation’s electrical power depends on one bulk power grid to support security and economic prosperity. According to the Department of Homeland Security’s Homeland Threat Assessment of 2020, the largest cyber threat to homeland security is potential disruption to critical infrastructure, including power grids. Critical infrastructure includes the physical and cyber systems which generate, transmit, and distribute electricity with an impact on economic security, public health, or safety. The surety of the Nation’s power grid is vital for providing essential services and would put the population at risk if disrupted. Power outages can have catastrophic consequences for critical organizations such as hospitals and military installations. Additionally, the current fossil-fuel dependent power grid is extremely fragile and vulnerable to overloads, storms that destroy power lines, and cyber-attacks.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Resilience of the slow component in timescale separated synchronized oscillators

Physiological networks are usually made of a large number of biological oscillators evolving on a multitude of different timescales. Phase oscillators are particularly useful in the modelling of the synchronization dynamics of such systems. If the coupling is strong enough compared to the heterogeneity of the internal parameters, synchronized states might emerge where phase oscillators start to behave coherently. Here, we focus on the case where synchronized oscillators are divided into a fast and a slow component so that the two subsets evolve on separated timescales. We assess the resilience of the slow component by, first, reducing the dynamics of the fast one using Mori-Zwanzig formalism. Second, we evaluate the variance of the phase deviations when the oscillators in the two components are subject to noise with possibly distinct correlation times. From the general expression for the variance, we consider specific network structures and show how the noise transmission between the fast and slow components is affected. Interestingly, we find that oscillators that are among the most robust when there is only a single timescale, might become the most vulnerable when the system undergoes a timescale separation. We also find that layered networks seem to be insensitive to such timescale separations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Resilience of the slow component in timescale-separated synchronized oscillators

Physiological networks are usually made of a large number of biological oscillators evolving on a multitude of different timescales. Phase oscillators are particularly useful in the modelling of the synchronization dynamics of such systems. If the coupling is strong enough compared to the heterogeneity of the internal parameters, synchronized states might emerge where phase oscillators start to behave coherently. Here, we focus on the case where synchronized oscillators are divided into a fast and a slow component so that the two subsets evolve on separated timescales. We assess the resilience of the slow component by, first, reducing the dynamics of the fast one using Mori-Zwanzig formalism. Second, we evaluate the variance of the phase deviations when the oscillators in the two components are subject to noise with possibly distinct correlation times. From the general expression for the variance, we consider specific network structures and show how the noise transmission between the fast and slow components is affected. Interestingly, we find that oscillators that are among the most robust when there is only a single timescale, might become the most vulnerable when the system undergoes a timescale separation. We also find that layered networks seem to be insensitive to such timescale separations.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Application of Cyber-Informed Engineering for Protecting BESS

This white paper synthesizes an array of crucial grid services provided by BESS technology, assesses its architecture and communications, and presents a case study for analysis against the principles introduced by Cyber-Informed Engineering (CIE). Furthermore, in walking through the analysis, this paper presents a framework to evaluate risks and solutions when considering BESS components. Asset owners and buyers could perform this analysis to assess their BESS product implementations, alternative inverter-based resources (IBR), and energy management systems (EMS). Battery systems fulfill various roles contingent on the unique market demands and the specific challenges presented by regional grid infrastructures. These roles also vary due to the differing utility models for ownership and operation, which are adapted to meet regional and local capabilities and requirements. Concerns have been raised regarding the potential for adversaries to exploit knowledge of battery operational patterns to orchestrate decisive attacks. However, the security of operational data for these systems may not be the primary vulnerability, as much of this information is already well-understood within the community. Applying a modest degree of subject matter expertise can often yield valuable predictions regarding how a battery will respond under certain conditions, such as grid emergencies, high or low-temperature days, Public Safety Power Shutoff (PSPS) events, and outages. The operational characteristics of batteries are well-documented, and their capabilities, including the risks associated with misoperation and the resulting consequences, are published and understood within the industry. CIE practices represent the next step in gaining functional assurance and providing an acceptable level of risk, regardless of whether a battery vendor can support a trusted and validated supply chain. While this issue has exacerbated supply chain challenges, it is not an isolated condition. This foreign supply route is the primary source of BESS for the U.S. market. Significant efforts are underway through the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law (BIL) to change that. Still, strategic short-term operational mitigations are needed to ensure the security of our operational technology (OT) systems, which are enhanced by instilling trust and are separate from vendors implementing CIE principles.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Assessing Impacts of Environmental Perturbations on Urban Biogenic Carbon Exchange in the Chicago Region

Carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) quantification is critical for assessing city-level carbon emissions and sustainable urban development. While urban vegetation has the potential to provide environmental benefits, such as heat and carbon mitigation, the CO 2 exchange from biogenic sectors and its impact from the environmental perturbations are often overlooked. It is also challenging to simulate the plant functions in the complex urban terrain. This study presents a processed-based modeling approach to assess the biogenic carbon fluxes from the vegetated areas over the Chicago Metropolitan Area (CMA) using the Weather Research and Forecast—Urban Biogenic Carbon exchange model. We investigate the change of CO 2 sink power in CMA under heatwaves and irrigation. The results indicate that the vegetation plays a significant role in the city's carbon portfolio and the landscaping management has the potential to reduce carbon emissions significantly. Furthermore, based on the competing mechanisms in the biogenic carbon balance identified in this study, we develop a novel Environmental Benefit Score metrics framework to identify the vulnerability and mitigation measures associated with nature-based solutions (NbS) within CMA. By using the generalized portable framework and our science-policy confluence analysis presented in this study, global cities can maximize the effectiveness of NbS and accelerate carbon neutrality.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Wildfire‐Induced Losses of Soil Particulate and Mineral‐Associated Organic Carbon Persist for Over 4 Years in a Chaparral Ecosystem

ABSTRACT Wildfires can lower soil carbon (C) stocks directly through combustion, but also indirectly during post‐fire recovery if microbial C demands outpace photosynthetic C inputs. However, how much C is respired by soil microorganisms post‐fire may depend on wildfire effects on particulate organic carbon (POC; mostly plant material accessible to microbes) and/or mineral‐associated organic carbon (MAOC; considered C protected by minerals from decomposers), meaning assessment of wildfire impacts on these pools is necessary to predict microbial decomposition rates and, thus, the fate of soil C. Here, we measured POC, MAOC, pyrogenic organic matter C, plant cover, extracellular enzyme activity (EEA), and microbial community abundance and composition 17 days, and 1, 3, and 4 years after the Holy Fire burned 94 km 2 of fire‐adapted chaparral. The wildfire immediately decreased POC by 50% (from 51 ± 21 to 26 ± 6 g C kg −1 ) and MAOC by 33% (from 9.3 ± 0.9 to 6.3 ± 0.9 g C kg −1 ), consistent with MAOC being less vulnerable to loss than POC. POC decreased by another 38% 1 year post‐fire, consistent with increases in microbial abundance and EEA suggesting increased microbial decomposition. Between 1 and 4 years after the fire, cover of the dominant shrub (Arctostaphylos glandulosa) increased from 3.9% ± 1.6% to 16% ± 5.4% (compared to 58% ± 4.6% in unburned plots), marking the end of net soil C losses. Still, soil C did not increase between 1 and 4 years post‐fire, suggesting plant C inputs did not outpace microbial respiration, a finding consistent with isotopically heavier C from microorganisms raising bulk soil δ 13 C values. As global changes favor increases in wildfire frequency and severity, C losses via combustion and decomposition may outpace plant C inputs during the first 4 years post‐fire in chaparral, slowing the replenishment of soil C stocks.

Biodiversity & Conservation↗

Assessment of U.S. Urban Surface Temperature Using GOES-16 and GOES-17 Data: Urban Heat Island and Temperature Inequality

Abstract This study utilizes hourly land surface temperature (LST) data from the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) to analyze the seasonal and diurnal characteristics of surface urban heat island intensity (SUHII) across 120 largest U.S. cities and their surroundings. Distinct patterns emerge in the classification of seasonal daytime SUHII and nighttime SUHII. Specifically, the enhanced vegetation index (EVI) and albedo (ALB) play pivotal roles in influencing these temperature variations. The diurnal cycle of SUHII further reveals different trends, suggesting that climate conditions, urban and nonurban land covers, and anthropogenic activities during nighttime hours affect SUHII peaks. Exploring intracity LST dynamics, the study reveals a significant correlation between urban intensity (UI) and LST, with LST rising as UI increases. Notably, populations identified as more vulnerable by the social vulnerability index (SVI) are found in high UI regions. This results in discernible LST inequality, where the more vulnerable communities are under higher LST conditions, possibly leading to higher heat exposure. This comprehensive study accentuates the significance of tailoring city-specific climate change mitigation strategies, illuminating LST variations and their intertwined societal implications.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

A Hybrid Dynamic/Steady-State Tool With Protection Simulation for Cascading-Outage Analysis of Extreme Events in Power Systems

The bulk electric power grid is subject to vulnerabilities from component outages, which in certain combinations (extreme events) might lead to cascading outages. Some of these outages can be severe enough to trigger brownouts and blackouts. Much is known about mitigating the first few failures near the beginning of a cascade, but there are few established methods and tools for directly analyzing the risks of cascading component outages over a longer time scale. Current power system tools have limited ability to perform detailed and accurate cascading-outage analysis, which could be computationally intensive. The Dynamic Contingency Analysis Tool (DCAT) enables power system planning engineers to more realistically assess the consequences of extreme contingencies and potential cascading events across their systems and interconnections. DCAT has several unique features: (i) detailed hybrid dynamic and steady-state analysis of power systems to mimic real-world cascading outages, (ii) detailed modeling of protection systems embedded in the dynamic simulation, (iii) simulation of corrective action after transients, (iv) simulation of islanding , and (v) high-performance computing capability to simulate a large number of contingencies in a reasonable time. DCAT outputs will help find technically sound solutions to reduce the risk of cascading outages. This paper provides details of DCAT methodology and shows its capabilities with extreme events on real-world cases.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Cybersecurity and Digital Components: Supply Chain Deep Dive Assessment

The report “America’s Strategy to Secure the Supply Chain for a Robust Clean Energy Transition” lays out the challenges and opportunities faced by the United States in the energy supply chain as well as the federal government plans to address these challenges and opportunities. It is accompanied by several issue-specific deep dive assessments, including this one, in response to Executive Order 14017 “America’s Supply Chains,” which directs the Secretary of Energy to submit a report on supply chains for the energy sector industrial base. The Executive Order is helping the federal government to build more secure and diverse U.S. supply chains, including energy supply chains. As the energy sector has become more globalized and increasingly complex, digitized, and even virtualized, its supply chain risk for digital components – the software, virtual platforms and services, and data – in energy systems has evolved and expanded. All digital components in U.S. energy sector systems are vulnerable and may be subject to cyber supply cha in risks stemming from a variety of threats, vulnerabilities, and impacts. This includes digital components in all systems within the ESIB, namely those systems operated by asset owners across different energy subsectors (e.g., electricity, oil and natural gas, and renewables) and the systems operated by a worldwide industrial complex with capabilities to perform research and development and design, produce, operate, and maintain energy sector systems, subsystems, components, or parts to meet U.S. energy requirements. Supply chain risks for digital components including software, virtual platforms and services, and data have grown in recent years as increasingly sophisticated cyber adversaries have targeted exploiting vulnerabilities in these digital assets. Supply chain risks for digital components in energy sector systems will continue to evolve and likely increase as these systems are increasingly interconnected, digitized, and remotely operated.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Evaluating the role of green infrastructure features in post-disaster recovery – Case Study of Beaumont, Texas after tropical storm imelda

While green infrastructure (GI) can provide multiple environmental benefits, its role in post-disaster economic and social recovery remains relatively underexplored. This article investigates whether different characteristics of GI, such as size, shape, connectivity, and amenities, affect the resilience of local businesses following Tropical Storm Imelda in Beaumont, Texas. The study utilizes SafeGraph mobility data to analyze foot traffic patterns to local businesses before, during, and after the disaster. FRAGSTATS indices measure GI characteristics (e.g., area, shape index, fractal dimension, proximity) while park features such as sports facilities, playgrounds, water features, and accessibility are cataloged through manual observation. Ordinary Least Squares regression models assess the relationship between park characteristics and post-recovery business performance, controlling for demographic variables including income, race, and poverty levels. Results indicate that certain GI attributes significantly enhance business recovery. Points of interest within walking distance (0.5 miles) of parks demonstrated better post-recovery status compared to those beyond this range. Specifically, parks with larger areas (p < 0.01) and more complex shapes measured by fractal dimension index (p < 0.01) had the strongest positive impact on surrounding businesses' recovery. Interestingly, playgrounds showed a negative correlation with recovery (p < 0.05), likely due to flood damage rendering them unusable during the immediate recovery period. Social vulnerability factors, including higher poverty rates and minority populations, negatively affected recovery outcomes despite park proximity.

Economic resilience↗

Assessing the energy equity benefits of energy storage solutions

Safety, reliability, efficiency, and affordability are no longer the sole tenets of electric grid planning. The evolving social and policy climate have placed new explicit requirements on the electric grid, including resilience, decarbonization, and energy equity and justice. Integrating energy equity strategies into modern grid design is intended to achieve a fair and just distribution of benefits within the energy system. This study aims to characterize the energy equity and community benefits of energy storage systems (ESS) under the following three use-case models: utility ESS that are operated within the distribution system; community-owned ESS; and behind-the-meter ESS that are customer-owned to serve the household. The goal of this energy equity analysis is to characterize the environmental, economic, and social benefits of ESS through applied metrics such as energy burden, energy poverty, energy vulnerability, job creation, and more. A 13.8 kV, 265 node representative feeder corresponding to the hot-humid climate of Louisiana, chosen for its high energy burden, frequent hurricanes and outage events, was used to perform a storage adequacy analysis for six different outage scenarios to determine energy storage access for each use-case. The results of this analysis are then used to characterize both the grid and equity benefits of storage solutions to inform a prioritization framework matching community needs with system preferences for utility planning processes, market regulations, and the wider network of energy system stakeholders.

Energy Equity, energy justice, equity, reliability↗

Chemical beneficiation of cobaltiferous pyrite: a thermodynamic and parametric study

Despite ongoing efforts to identify substitute materials, cobalt remains indispensable for the production of rechargeable batteries essential to the global energy transition. Currently, most cobalt is sourced as a by-product of nickel and copper extraction from politically and ethically unstable regions. To address this vulnerability, certain primary cobalt deposits—where cobalt occurs within the crystal lattice of pyrite (FeS 2 )—have been identified as potential alternatives. Nonetheless, conventional beneficiation methods have proven largely ineffective for the potential processing of these minerals. This study investigated the thermal decomposition of cobaltiferous pyrite contained in flotation concentrates as a subsequent chemical beneficiation stage aimed at (i) selectively removing sulfur to further increase cobalt grades and (ii) producing a ferromagnetic product suitable for downstream magnetic separation. A thermodynamic analysis was first conducted to evaluate the feasibility of the decomposition reactions and the temperature-dependent evolution of sulfur species. A parametric experimental study then assessed the influence of temperature, residence time, and gas flow rate under N 2 and CO 2 atmospheres. Under the most favorable experimental conditions tested (650 °C, 15 min), cobalt grades increased by up to 15% with negligible cobalt losses and the co-production of high-purity sulfur (>95%). Magnetic separation of the resulting calcine yielded a final concentrate containing 2.09% cobalt at 82.5% recovery, representing a 16–74% improvement over previous baseline studies on similar feedstocks.

Beneficiation↗

Soil Carbon Saturation: What Do We Really Know?

Managing soils to increase organic carbon storage presents a potential opportunity to mitigate and adapt to global change challenges, while providing numerous co-benefits and ecosystem services. However, soils differ widely in their potential for carbon sequestration, and knowledge of biophysical limits to carbon accumulation may aid in informing priority regions. Consequently, there is great interest in assessing whether soils exhibit a maximum capacity for storing organic carbon, particularly within organo–mineral associations given the finite nature of reactive minerals in a soil. While the concept of soil carbon saturation has existed for over 25 years, recent studies have argued for and against its importance. Here, we summarize the conceptual understanding of soil carbon saturation at both micro- and macro-scales, define key terminology, and address common concerns and misconceptions. We review methods used to quantify soil carbon saturation, highlighting the theory and potential caveats of each approach. Critically, we explore the utility of the principles of soil carbon saturation for informing carbon accumulation, vulnerability to loss, and representations in process-based models. We highlight key knowledge gaps and propose next steps for furthering our mechanistic understanding of soil carbon saturation and its implications for soil management.

Environmental sciences↗

Forest Carbon Storage in the Western United States: Distribution, Drivers, and Trends

Abstract Forests are a large carbon sink and could serve as natural climate solutions that help moderate future warming. Thus, establishing forest carbon baselines is essential for tracking climate‐mitigation targets. Western US forests are natural climate solution hotspots but are profoundly threatened by drought and altered disturbance regimes. How these factors shape spatial patterns of carbon storage and carbon change over time is poorly resolved. Here, we estimate live and dead forest carbon density in 19 forested western US ecoregions with national inventory data (2005–2019) to determine: (a) current carbon distributions, (b) underpinning drivers, and (c) recent trends. Potential drivers of current carbon included harvest, wildfire, insect and disease, topography, and climate. Using random forests, we evaluated driver importance and relationships with current live and dead carbon within ecoregions. We assessed trends using linear models. Pacific Northwest (PNW) and Southwest (SW) ecoregions were most and least carbon dense, respectively. Climate was an important carbon driver in the SW and Lower Rockies. Fire reduced live and increased dead carbon, and was most important in the Upper Rockies and California. No ecoregion was unaffected by fire. Harvest and private ownership reduced carbon, particularly in the PNW. Since 2005, live carbon declined across much of the western US, likely from drought and fire. Carbon has increased in PNW ecoregions, likely recovering from past harvest, but recent record fire years may alter trajectories. Our results provide insight into western US forest carbon function and future vulnerabilities, which is vital for effective climate change mitigation strategies.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

Learning-based framework for sensor fault-tolerant building HVAC control with model-assisted learning

As people spend up to 87% of their time indoors, intelligent Heating, Ventilation, and Air Conditioning (HVAC) systems in buildings are essential for maintaining occupant comfort and reducing energy consumption. These HVAC systems in smart buildings rely 'on real-time sensor readings, which in practice often suffer from various faults and could also be vulnerable to malicious attacks. Such faulty sensor inputs may lead to the violation of indoor environment requirements (e.g., temperature, humidity, etc.) and the increase of energy consumption. While many model-based approaches have been proposed in the literature for building HVAC control, it is costly to develop accurate physical models for ensuring their performance and even more challenging to address the impact of sensor faults. In this work, we present a novel learning-based framework for sensor fault-tolerant HVAC control, which includes three deep learning based components for 1) generating temperature proposals with the consideration of possible sensor faults, 2) selecting one of the proposals based on the assessment of their accuracy, and 3) applying reinforcement learning with the selected temperature proposal. Moreover, to address the challenge of training data insufficiency in building-related tasks, we propose a model-assisted learning method leveraging an abstract model of building physical dynamics. Through extensive experiments, we demonstrate that the proposed fault-tolerant HVAC control framework can significantly reduce building temperature violations under a variety of sensor fault patterns while maintaining energy efficiency.

Xu, Shichao↗

Applying Deep Learning for Wildfire Identification: Economical and Accessible Solutions Leveraging Small Datasets

Wildfires significantly impact human health, air quality, visibility, weather, and climate change and cause substantial economic losses. While state and county-operated air quality monitors provide critical insights during wildfires, they are not available in all regions. This highlights the need for affordable, accessible tools that allow the general public to assess air quality impacts. In this study, we apply machine learning with deep neural networks to diagnose air quality rapidly from sky images taken at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory in Richland, WA, USA. Using a convolutional neural network (CNN) framework, we trained a deep learning model to classify air quality indices based on sky images. By leveraging transfer learning, our approach fine-tunes a pre-trained model on a small dataset of sky images, significantly reducing training time while maintaining high accuracy. Our results demonstrate the potential of deep learning to provide rapid air quality diagnostics during wildfire episodes, offering early warnings to the public and enabling timely mitigation strategies, particularly for vulnerable populations. Additionally, we show that lower respiratory infections pose the highest health risk during acute smoke exposures. Reactive oxygen species (ROS) from wildfire particles further exacerbate health risks by triggering inflammation and other adverse effects.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Assessing Marginal Land Availability Based on Land Use Change Information in the Contiguous United States

Utilization of marginal land for growing dedicated bioenergy crops for second-generation biofuels is appealing to avoid conflicts with food production. This study develops a novel framework to quantify marginal land for the Contiguous United States (CONUS) based on a history of satellite-observed land use change (LUC) over the 2008–2015 period. Frequent LUC between crop and noncrop is assumed to be an indicator of economically marginal land; this land is also likely to have a lower opportunity cost of conversion from food crop to bioenergy crop production. We first present an approach to identify cropland in transition using the time series of Cropland Data Layer (CDL) land cover product and determine the amount of land that can be considered marginal with a high degree of confidence vs with uncertainty across the CONUS. We find that the biophysical characteristics of this land and its productivity and environmental vulnerability vary across the land and lie in between that of permanent cropland and permanent natural vegetation/bare areas; this land also has relatively low intrinsic value and agricultural profit but a high financial burden and economic risk. We find that the total area of marginal land with confidence vs with uncertainty is 10.2 and 58.4 million hectares, respectively, and mainly located along the 100th meridian. Only a portion of this marginal land (1.4–2.2 million hectares with confidence and 14.8–19.4 million hectares with uncertainty) is in the rainfed region and not in crop production and, thus, suitable for producing energy crops without diverting land from food crops in 2016. These estimates are much smaller than the estimates obtained by previous studies, which consider all biophysically low-quality land to be marginal without considering economical marginality. The estimate of marginal land for bioenergy crops obtained in this study is an indicator of the availability of economically marginal land that is suitable for bioenergy crop production; whether this land is actually converted to bioenergy crops will depend on the market conditions. Here, we note the inability to conduct field-level validation of cropland in transition and leave it to future advances in technology to ground-truth land use change and its relationship to economically marginal land.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Effect of epitope variant co-delivery on the depth of CD8 T cell responses induced by HIV-1 conserved mosaic vaccines

To stop the HIV-1 pandemic, vaccines must induce responses capable of controlling vast HIV-1 variants circulating in the population as well as those evolved in each individual following transmission. Numerous strategies have been proposed, of which the most promising include focusing responses on the vulnerable sites of HIV-1 displaying the least entropy among global isolates and using algorithms that maximize vaccine match to circulating HIV-1 variants by vaccine cocktails of optimized complementing sequences. In this study, we investigated CD8 T cell responses induced by a bi-valent mosaic of highly conserved HIVconsvX regions delivered by a combination of simian adenovirus ChAdOx1 and poxvirus MVA. We compared partially and fully mono- and bi-valent prime-boost regimens and their ability to elicit T cells recognizing natural epitope variants using an interferon-g enzyme-linked immunospot (ELISPOT) assay. We used 11 well-defined CD8 T cell epitopes in two mouse haplotypes and, for each epitope, assessed recognition of the two vaccine forms together with the other most frequent epitope variants in the HIV-1 database. We conclude that for the magnitude and depth of epitope recognition, CD8 T cell responses benefitted in most comparisons from the combined bi-valent mosaic and envisage the main advantage of the bi-valent vaccine during its deployment to diverse populations.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗