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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Deficient precipitation sensitivity to Sahel land surface forcings among CMIP5 models

Abstract The overall performance of the simulated seasonal precipitation response to local terrestrial forcings, namely vegetation abundance and soil moisture, in the Sahel among the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase Five (CMIP5) Earth System Models (ESMs) is systematically investigated and compared with its observational counterpart using a multivariate statistical method. The observed seasonal precipitation response is evaluated against a large ensemble of observational, reanalysis, and satellite data sets to provide quantification of uncertainties. The behaviour of models with and without a Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (DGVM) component is also explored, along with the mechanisms responsible for terrestrial feedback on rainfall. In general, the CMIP5 models can reasonably capture the seasonal evolution of Sahel precipitation and soil moisture, albeit with wet biases during the pre‐monsoon period and dry biases during the peak monsoon period. The non‐DGVM ESMs simulate comparable leaf area indices (LAIs) with observations, while DGVM‐enabled ESMs simulate too much year‐round LAI. The variance of precipitation that is attributed to oceanic forcings in CMIP5 is comparable with observations; however, the variance of precipitation that is attributed to terrestrial forcings is smaller in CMIP5 models than observed, especially for non‐DGVM ESMs. CMIP5 models, especially those without DGVMs, undervalue precipitation's observed response strength to soil moisture anomalies. In both observations and CMIP5 models, none of the atmospheric variables show significant responses to direct vegetation forcing, except for the response in transpiration. Although vegetation has minimal direct effect on the atmospheric state, it can affect the atmosphere by modifying soil moisture and transpiration rate indirectly, which helps explain the more realistic simulation of rainfall in DGVM‐enabled ESMs than non‐DGVM ESMs. Coupling of an ESM to a DGVM is critical in generating reasonable land–atmosphere feedback and examining future ecological and climatic changes over the Sahel.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

DP-TwoLevel: two-stage gradient subspace learning for differentially private federated learning

Federated learning (FL) enables collaborative model training across distributed data sources without sharing raw data, but faces fundamental challenges in communication efficiency and privacy. Differentially private (DP) training mitigates information leakage but introduces noise that degrades model performance, especially in high-dimensional settings. We propose DP-TwoLevel, a hierarchical gradient projection method that improves utility under fixed DP constraints by exploiting low-dimensional structure in model updates. Our approach learns a two-level PCA-based representation of gradients and applies DP noise in a reduced-dimensional subspace, thereby lowering the effective noise magnitude while preserving dominant signal components. We evaluate the method across three datasets (MNIST, Fashion-MNIST, CIFAR-10) and three privacy regimes (ϵ∈0.5, 1.0, 2.0). Across nine experimental settings, DP-TwoLevel consistently outperforms DP-FedAvg, achieving an average accuracy improvement of 9.44%, with larger gains observed in lower ϵ(higher-noise) regimes (up to +22.31%). We further analyze scalability across models ranging from 100K to 1.49M parameters and identify a variance-based success criterion: performance remains strong when the projection preserves more than 75% of gradient variance, degrades in a marginal regime (65–75%), and fails below this threshold. Our results demonstrate that structure-aware dimensionality reduction can significantly improve the privacy–utility tradeoff in FL without modifying formal privacy guarantees. We also provide empirical evidence of scaling limitations for global projections and motivate per-layer extensions for larger models.

Kotevska, Olivera [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000316772243)↗
NASA NTRS1995

Is coverage a factor in non-Gaussianity of IMF parameters?

Recently, Feynman and Ruzmaikin (1994) showed that IMF parameters for the 1973 to 1990 period are not log-normally distributed as previously suggested by Burlaga and King (1979) for the data obtained over a shorter time period (1963-75). They studied the first four moments, namely: mean, variance, skewness, and kurtosis. For a Gaussian distribution, moments higher than the variance should vanish. In particular, Feynman and Ruzmaikin obtained very high values of kurtosis during some periods of their analysis. We note that the coverage for IMF parameters is very uneven for the period analyzed by them, ranging from less than 40% to greater than 80%. So a question arises as to whether the amount of coverage is a factor in their analysis. We decided to test this for the B(sub z) component of IMF, since it is an effective geoactive parameter for short term disturbances. Like them, we used 1-hour averaged data available on the Omnitape. We studied the scatter plots of the annual mean values of B(sub z)(nT) and its kurtosis versus the percent coverage for the year. We obtain a correlation coefficient of 0.48 and 0.42 respectively for the 1973-90 period. The probability for a chance occurrence of these correlation coefficients for 18 pair of points is less than 8%. As a rough measure of skewness, we determined the percent asymmetry between the areas of the histograms representing the distributions of the positive and the negative values of B(sub z) and studied its correlation with the coverage for the year. This analysis yields a correlation coefficient of 0.41 When we extended the analysis for the whole period for which IMF data are available (1963-93) the corresponding correlation coefficients are 0.59, 0.14, and 0.42. Our findings will be presented and discussed

Ahluwalia, H. S.↗
NASA NTRS1983

Antarctic meteorite ALHA81005 - Not just another lunar anorthositic norite

It is contended that 81005 requires the existence of a component that is poor in large-ion lithophile elements, at least as mafic as anorthositic norite, and magnesian rather than ferroan. While no such component has yet been observed in nearside samples, as an end-member in mixing models it would conveniently account for the composition of some polymict samples that heretofore have been difficult to explain as mixtures of endogenous rock types. The results presented here therefore suggest that the early lunar crust contained a significant proportion of both ferroan and magnesian anorthositic norites as primary igneous rocks. It is acknowledged that this conclusion is at variance with models that treat materials of anorthositic norite composition as mixtures of anorthosite plus norite, troctolite, and dunite.

Korotev, R. L.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Stochastic Price Generation for Evaluating Wholesale Electricity Market Bidding Strategies

This work presents a novel method for generating electricity price scenarios from statistical properties of past electricity prices using a hybrid statistical and reduced-form stochastic model. Previous work in applying stochastic differential equations (SDE) to model electricity prices has focused on daily average prices. To extend stochastic price generation methods to hourly or sub-hourly pricing, we address several weaknesses in the state-of-the-art: (1) we replace the mean-reversion component of the SDE with an ARIMA process that is better able to characterize the daily and weekly trends; (2) we extend the price-spike, or jump process to account for conditional probabilities of price spikes occurring in consecutive time steps by replacing the traditional Poisson process for modeling jumps with a generalized point process model inspired by brain neuron models; and (3) we replace the traditional method of estimating spike intensity with empirical variance with a Markov process based on observed price spike intensity transitions. The method is demonstrated with electricity prices from the US ERCOT market and a use-case example is provided for bidding an energy storage unit into the day-ahead and real-time energy markets of ERCOT using stochastic optimization methods. Results show that the the synthetic price model out performs a (naive) persistence forecast model by resulting in 24% to 47% more in profits over 168 simulated days.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
NASA NTRS1993

The carbon components in SNC meteorites of feldspathic harzburgite composition

Two meteorites collected in Antarctica, ALH A77005 and LEW 88516, have characteristics which link them to the shergottite group of SNC meteorites. Essentially, ALH A77005 and LEW 88516 are feldspathic harzburgites, being comprised of roughly equal quantities of olivine and pyroxene, with an additional few percent of feldspar which has subsequently been converted to maskelynite by shock. The meteorites represent samples of a cumulate rock which is itself composed of two different lithologies: in one, large pyroxenes poikilitically enclose olivine crystals, while the other consists of interstitial areas made up of pyroxene, olivine, maskelynite, whitlockite, troilite, ilmenite and chlorapatite. It has been proposed that meteorites such as ALH A77005 (and LEW 88516) are relict samples of the source peridotite from which the other shergottites formed. As such it should be informative to study in detail the carbon components present within these samples, in order to make comparisons with data from other shergottites. Although not plutonic in origin, and therefore not sampling a truly deep source, analyses of ALH A77005 and LEW 88516 should assist with attempts to define the bulk carbon isotopic composition of Mars. This has been assessed previously through analyses of carbon of presumed magmatic origin in other SNC meteorites, but the carbon isotopic compositions obtained seem to be at variance with what might be expected. It is important to constrain the carbon isotopic composition of Mars as well as possible so that models of atmospheric evolution, based on carbon isotopic data, can yield the most reliable results.

Wright, I. P.↗
NASA NTRS2008

Quantifying the Effect of Component Covariances in CMB Extraction from Multi-frequency Data

Linear combination methods provide a global method for component separation of multi-frequency data. We present such a method that allows for consideration of possible covariances between the desired cosmic microwave background signal and various foreground signals that are also present. We also recover information on the foregrounds including the number of foregrounds, their spectra and templates. In all this, the covariances, which we would only expect to vanish 'in the mean' are included as parameters expressing the fundamental uncertainty due to this type of cosmic variance. When we make the reasonable assumption that the CMB is Gaussian, we can compute both a mean recovered CMB map and also an RMS error map, The mean map coincides with WMAP's Internal Linear Combination map.

Phillips, Nicholas G.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Towards a Robust Sampling Approach: A Computational Review and Design

As pointed out in several other works, the estimation of the reliability of the electrical grid can not be conducted without the estimation of the stochastic phenomena of electicity demand and electricity production by variable renewable sources. Therefore, sampling procedures have become integral in the design of engineering structures and analysis. Commonly referred to as Monte Carlo uncertainty analysis or integration, the general objective of these procedures is to establish specifics about the uncertainty of an output characteristic of such an engineering system, given uncertainty about its input characteristics. These sampling procedures are applied in a context in which establishing such specifics cannot be performed through other means. Variance-reduction techniques are designed to lessen the variability among estimators to estimate statistics of those output uncertainties. Importance-sampling techniques, on the other hand, are designed to reduce the number of samples needed to estimate a particular statistic—e.g., a tail probability. The combination of these approaches can reduce the computational burden considerably for a particular estimator and statistic. Importance sampling—geared and designed as it is toward improving a particular estimator—suffers, unfortunately, from the unintended consequence of reducing the performance of other estimators in terms of their variance. The objective of this paper is to offer an alternative sampling procedure where this variance does not grow unacceptably large for a suite of estimators. Moreover, it is anticipated that, with additional knowledge of how an engineering output characteristic responds to its input characteristics, tuning parameters of the input’s sampling procedure can be set to improve the output characteristic’s estimation. This work proves the effectiveness of the suggested alternative approach. Such positive outcome will lead to a decrease of the computational burden of performing stochastic optimization of integrated energy systems (e.g., components dispatch, and portfolio composition). In particular, capturing the contribution to the overall system cost of rare and unlikely events and patterns of the electricity demand and production will become less computationally expensive. This is due to the fact that the approach demonstrated here will allow the sampling of those rare occurrences more frequently without misrepresenting their probabilistic impacts.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
NASA NTRS1990

Final Design for a Comprehensive Orbital Debris Management Program

The rationale and specifics for the design of a comprehensive program for the control of orbital debris, as well as details of the various components of the overall plan, are described. The problem of orbital debris has been steadily worsening since the first successful launch in 1957. The hazards posed by orbital debris suggest the need for a progressive plan for the prevention of future debris, as well as the reduction of the current debris level. The proposed debris management plan includes debris removal systems and preventative techniques and policies. The debris removal is directed at improving the current debris environment. Because of the variance in sizes of debris, a single system cannot reasonably remove all kinds of debris. An active removal system, which deliberately retrieves targeted debris from known orbits, was determined to be effective in the disposal of debris tracked directly from earth. However, no effective system is currently available to remove the untrackable debris. The debris program is intended to protect the orbital environment from future abuses. This portion of the plan involves various environment from future abuses. This portion of the plan involves various methods and rules for future prevention of debris. The preventative techniques are protective methods that can be used in future design of payloads. The prevention policies are rules which should be employed to force the prevention of orbital debris.

Source record↗
DOE OSTI2021

The Twins Embedding of Type Ia Supernovae. I. The Diversity of Spectra at Maximum Light

In this work, we study the spectral diversity of Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) at maximum light using high signal-to-noise spectrophotometry of 173 SNe Ia from the Nearby Supernova Factory. We decompose the diversity of these spectra into different extrinsic and intrinsic components, and we construct a nonlinear parameterization of the intrinsic diversity of SNe Ia that preserves pairings of "twin"SNe Ia. We call this parameterization the "Twins Embedding."Our methodology naturally handles highly nonlinear variability in spectra, such as changes in the photosphere expansion velocity, and uses the full spectrum rather than being limited to specific spectral line strengths, ratios, or velocities. We find that the time evolution of SNe Ia near maximum light is remarkably similar, with 84.6% of the variance in common to all SNe Ia. After correcting for brightness and color, the intrinsic variability of SNe Ia is mostly restricted to specific spectral lines, and we find intrinsic dispersions as low as ~0.02 mag between 6600 and 7200 Å. With a nonlinear three-dimensional model plus one dimension for color, we can explain 89.2% of the intrinsic diversity in our sample of SNe Ia, which includes several different kinds of "peculiar"SNe Ia. A linear model requires seven dimensions to explain a comparable fraction of the intrinsic diversity. We show how a wide range of previously established indicators of diversity in SNe Ia can be recovered from the Twins Embedding. In a companion article, we discuss how these results can be applied to the standardization of SNe Ia for cosmology.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Requirements on the gain calibration for LiteBIRD polarisation data with blind component separation

The detection of primordial B modes of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) could provide information about the early stages of the Universe's evolution. The faintness of this signal requires exquisite calibration accuracy and control of instrumental systematic effects which otherwise could bias the measurements. In this work, we study the impact of an imperfect relative polarisation gain calibration on the recovered value of the tensor-to-scalar ratio r for the LiteBIRD experiment, through the application of the blind Needlet Internal Linear Combination (NILC) foreground-cleaning method. We derive requirements on the relative calibration accuracy of the overall polarisation gain (Δg ν ) for each LiteBIRD frequency channel. Our results show that minimum variance techniques, as NILC, are less sensitive to systematic gain calibration uncertainties compared to a parametric approach, if the latter is not equipped with a proper modelling of these instrumental effects. In this study, the most stringent requirements are found in the channels where the CMB signal is relatively brighter, with the tightest constraints at 166 GHz (Δg ν ≈ 0.16%). This differs from the outcome of an analogous analysis performed with a parametric method, where the tightest requirements are obtained for the foreground-dominated channels. Gain calibration uncertainties, corresponding to the derived requirements, are then simultaneously propagated into all frequency channels. By doing so, we find that the overall impact on estimated r is lower than the total gain systematic budget for LiteBIRD approximately by a factor 5, due to the correlations of the impacts of gain calibration uncertainties in different frequency channels. In order to decouple the systematic effect from the specific choice of the model, we derive the requirements assuming constant spectral parameters for the foreground emission. To assess the robustness of the obtained results against more realistic scenarios, we repeat the analysis assuming sky models of intermediate and high complexity. In these further cases, we adopt an optimised NILC pipeline, called the Multi-Clustering NILC (MC-NILC). We find that the impact of gain calibration uncertainties on r is lower than the LiteBIRD gain systematics budget for the intermediate-complexity sky model. For the high-complexity case, instead, it would be necessary to tighten the requirements by a factor 1.8.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1994

On the energy principle and ion tearing in the magnetotail

We re-examine the use of the energy principle as applied to the tearing instability in the magnetotail. We demonstrate that when a magnetic field component normal to the current sheet is present, electron pitch-angle diffusion (PAD) either by micro-turbulence or by chaotic orbits cannot remove the strong stabilization of the tearing mode caused by electron compressibility. We find that our conclusions are in agreement with those of Pellat et al. (1991), who argued on the basis of canonical P(sub y) conservation that the stabilization of the ion tearing mode cannot be removed by the introduction of PAD. Our results are at variance with those of Kuznetsova and Zelenyi (1991), who argued that the application of the energy principle used by Pellat et al. (1991) is incorrect, and that tearing is in fact unstable in the limit of strong PAD. We show that the disagreement between these two studies can be traced to an incorrect orbit evaluation first introduced by Coroniti (1980) and subnsequently used by Kuznetsova and Zelenyi (1991).

Brittnacher, M.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Sensitivity of Next-Generation CMB Surveys to Neutrinos and Other Light Relics

Neutrinos and other light relics leave characteristic imprints in the cosmic microwave background anisotropies, making their observation a sensitive probe of the particle content and thermal history of the early universe. The energy density in these relativistic species is parameterized by their effective number $N_\mathrm{eff}$. Measuring this parameter at the percent level, which is a long-standing science goal of CMB-S4 and other experiments, would test a wide range of well-motivated physics within and beyond the Standard Model of particle physics. In this paper, we present Fisher-matrix forecasts of the projected sensitivity to $N_\mathrm{eff}$ of several CMB-S4 survey configurations considered during its extensive design phase. The conceptual design reaches $σ(N_\mathrm{eff}) < 0.03$ over its seven-year observing period, while the revised configuration achieves the same precision over a longer timescale. We complement these results with a cosmic-variance-limited survey over the same multipole range to quantify the room for improvement accessible with additional instrumental, observational, and theoretical efforts. Finally, we discuss the broad implications of precise $N_\mathrm{eff}$ measurements for the radiation sector, big bang nucleosynthesis, light thermal relics, and other early-universe physics. The forecasts presented in this work are performed with the publicly released DRAFT (Dark Radiation Anisotropy Flowdown Team) tool. It provides an end-to-end pipeline from simulated foreground maps and component separation to delensing and projected sensitivities for any cosmological parameter, and it can be directly applied to other cosmic microwave background survey designs.

Trendafilova, Cynthia [Case Western Reserve U., CE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Spatiotemporal Modeling of Real World Backsheets Field Survey Data: Hierarchical (Multilevel) Generalized Additive Models: Preprint

Assessing photovoltaic module backsheet durability is critical to increasing module lifetime. Lab based accelerating testing has recently failed to predict large scale failures of widely adopted polymeric materials. Field surveyed data is critical to assess the performance of component lifetime. Using a documented field survey protocol, 13 field surveys where conducted. Each measurement is encoded with it's spatial location in respect to the other modules. By combining field survey data on degradation predictors with real time satellite weather data, data-driven predictive models of backsheet degradation were trained. LOESS models were constructed to investigate the spatial dependence of measurements. It was found that micro-climatic effects like treelines, ground surface changes, and elevation changes effected the magnitude and variance of the measurements. A GAM model was created to predict the value of degradation based on measured predictors. The model includes variables on the climate of the system and the location of each measurement in the PV mounting structure. The model performed well with an adj:R2 of 0:95 for yellowness index prediction. The model was cross-validated using k-folds.

backsheet↗
NASA NTRS1979

A simulation study of Large Area Crop Inventory Experiment (LACIE) technology

The author has identified the following significant results. The LACIE performance predictor (LPP) was used to replicate LACIE phase 2 for a 15 year period, using accuracy assessment results for phase 2 error components. Results indicated that the (LPP) simulated the LACIE phase 2 procedures reasonably well. For the 15 year simulation, only 7 of the 15 production estimates were within 10 percent of the true production. The simulations indicated that the acreage estimator, based on CAMS phase 2 procedures, has a negative bias. This bias was too large to support the 90/90 criterion with the CV observed and simulated for the phase 2 production estimator. Results of this simulation study validate the theory that the acreage variance estimator in LACIE was conservative.

Ziegler, L.↗
NASA NTRS1984

A robust pseudo-inverse spectral filter applied to the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE) scanning channels

Computer simulations of a least squares estimator operating on the ERBE scanning channels are discussed. The estimator is designed to minimize the errors produced by nonideal spectral response to spectrally varying and uncertain radiant input. The three ERBE scanning channels cover a shortwave band a longwave band and a ""total'' band from which the pseudo inverse spectral filter estimates the radiance components in the shortwave band and a longwave band. The radiance estimator draws on instantaneous field of view (IFOV) scene type information supplied by another algorithm of the ERBE software, and on a priori probabilistic models of the responses of the scanning channels to the IFOV scene types for given Sun scene spacecraft geometry. It is found that the pseudoinverse spectral filter is stable, tolerant of errors in scene identification and in channel response modeling, and, in the absence of such errors, yields minimum variance and essentially unbiased radiance estimates.

Avis, L. M.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Quantitative Estimation of the Impact of European Teleconnections on Interannual Variation of East Asian Winter Temperature and Monsoon

The impact of European teleconnections including the East AtlanticWest Russia (EA-WR), the Scandinavia (SCA), and the East Atlantic (EA) on East Asian winter temperature variability was quantified and compared with the combined effect of the Arctic Oscillation (AO), the Western Pacific (WP), and the El-Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which are originated in the Northern Hemispheric high-latitudes or the Pacific. Three European teleconnections explained 22-25 percent of the total monthly upper-tropospheric height variance over Eurasia. Regression analysis revealed warming by EA-WR and EA and cooling by SCA over mid-latitude East Asia during their positive phase and vice versa. Temperature anomalies were largely explained by the advective temperature change process at the lower troposphere. The average spatial correlation over East Asia (90-180E, 10-80N) for the last 34 winters between observed and reconstructed temperature comprised of AO, WP and ENSO effect (AWE) was approximately 0.55, and adding the European teleconnection components (ESE) to the reconstructed temperature improved the correlation up to approximately 0.64. Lower level atmospheric structure demonstrated that approximately five of the last 34 winters were significantly better explained by ESE than AWE to determine East Asian seasonal winter temperatures. We also compared the impact between EA-WR and AO on the 1) East Asian winter monsoon, 2) cold surge, and 3) the Siberian high. These three were strongly coupled, and their spatial features and interannual variation were somewhat better explained by EA-WR than AO. Results suggest that the EA-WR impact must be treated more importantly than previously thought for a better understanding of East Asian winter temperature and monsoon variability.

East Asian Winter Monsoon↗
DOE OSTI2026

Analysis of Second Target Station Target Removal Dose Rates

The Second Target Station (STS) project at Oak Ridge National Laboratory’s spallation neutron source is a crucial initiative for maintaining U.S. leadership in neutron sciences. The STS aims to create the world’s brightest pulsed cold neutron source, enabling cutting-edge research across various scientific disciplines. To ensure safe and efficient maintenance operations, understanding the effects of shutdown dose rates from activated components within the STS target systems is essential. This study establishes a computational framework for calculating decay gamma sources and subsequent shutdown dose rates utilizing advanced methods to account for all activation channels, including high-energy interactions down to thermal neutron capture. This study describes a novel integration of multiple tools and provides an effective means of analyzing activation and shutdown dose rates at spallation neutron facilities. A custom-developed script automates the decay gamma source generation process, ensuring proper sampling during the variance reduction phase, which is critical for accurate predictions of shutdown dose rates.

Transmutation↗