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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 361 records · Page 20
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Radar-derived precipitation climatology for wind turbine blade leading edge erosion

Wind turbine blade leading edge erosion (LEE) is a potentially significant source of revenue loss for wind farm operators. Thus, it is important to advance understanding of the underlying causes, to generate geospatial estimates of erosion potential to provide guidance in pre-deployment planning, and ultimately to advance methods to mitigate this effect and extend blade lifetimes. This study focuses on the second issue and presents a novel approach to characterizing the erosion potential across the contiguous USA based solely on publicly available data products from the National Weather Service dual-polarization radar. The approach is described in detail and illustrated using six locations distributed across parts of the USA that have substantial wind turbine deployments. Results from these locations demonstrate the high spatial variability in precipitation-induced erosion potential, illustrate the importance of low-probability high-impact events to cumulative annual total kinetic energy transfer and emphasize the importance of hail as a damage vector.

Letson, Frederick (ORCID:0000000192750359)↗
DOE OSTI2024

From individual leaves to forest stands: importance of niche, distance decay, and stochasticity vary by ecosystem type and functional group for fungal community composition

Abstract Community assembly is influenced by environmental niche processes as well as stochastic processes that can be spatially dependent (e.g. dispersal limitation) or independent (e.g. priority effects). Here, we sampled senesced tree leaves as unit habitats to investigate fungal community assembly at two spatial scales: (i) small neighborhoods of overlapping leaves from differing tree species and (ii) forest stands of differing ecosystem types. Among forest stands, ecosystem type explained the most variation in community composition. Among adjacent leaves within stands, variability in fungal composition was surprisingly high. Leaf type was more important in stands with high soil fertility and dominated by differing tree mycorrhizal types (sugar maple vs. basswood or red oak), whereas distance decay was more important in oak-dominated forest stands with low soil fertility. Abundance of functional groups was explained by environmental factors, but predictors of taxonomic composition within differing functional groups were highly variable. These results suggest that fungal community assembly processes are clearest for functional group abundances and large spatial scales. Understanding fungal community assembly at smaller spatial scales will benefit from further study focusing on differences in drivers for different ecosystems and functional groups, as well as the importance of spatially independent factors such as priority effects.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Personal and environmental predictors of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon exposure identified through repeated silicone wristband sampling

This study integrates quantitative data on personal exposure to polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in 162 silicone wristbands with demographics, behavioral information, and housing characteristics to explore contributions to residential exposure in a superfund-adjacent community over the course of a year. Forty-six residents completed questionnaires and wore silicone wristbands as personal passive samplers for seven consecutive days on up to four separate occasions in alternating months between November 2022 and June 2023. It was hypothesized that individual behaviors and housing characteristics are sources of dependence and correlation between personal PAH exposures. 50 PAHs were detected at least once, 17 of which were alkylated PAHs. Exposure to PAHs of similar molecular weight was often correlated, notably between naphthalenes (2-rings) and higher molecular weight PAHs (3 or more rings). Generalized linear mixed models identified flooring type, participant age, and sampling month as important predictors of increased PAH exposure, and flooring type, and use of wood stoves or heavy machinery as predictors of increased naphthalene exposure relative to higher molecular weight PAHs. Individual chemical models based on concentration data and detection frequencies corroborated these findings across multiple PAHs. We demonstrate that personal exposure is not static and the degree of variability in personal exposure is individual. Hence, identification of influential exposure factors through repeated measures of chemical exposure and characterization of variability in personal exposure as performed in this study, is important in the development of exposure mitigation strategies.

Bonner, Emily↗
DOE OSTI2020

A New Process for Carbon Dioxide Conversion to Fuel

In this project, TDA developed a new mixed metal oxide-based sorbent that converts CO 2 (captured from coal fired power plant) to CO, which can then be combined with renewable H 2 generated by water electrolysis to produce different liquid fuels. TDA’s absorbent-based CO 2 conversion process uses a redox process, which splits the reverse water gas shift reaction steps into two stages: CO 2 reduction to CO and H 2 oxidation to H 2 O and eliminates the equilibrium limitations. The CO produced in the two-stage reactor system can then be further reacted with renewable H 2 to produce methanol, naphtha, diesel, or gasoline. We worked with the Gas Technology Institute (GTI) and Advanced Power & Energy Program (APEP) of University of California, Irvine (UCI) to design and develop the liquid fuel synthesis process that is built around this new material. We demonstrated the techno-economic viability of the new sorbent based redox process to convert CO 2 into synthesis gas by: 1) demonstrating continuous carbon dioxide reduction in a prototype test system for over 500 hours while converting up to 0.4 kg CO 2 /day. With the successful completion of the R&D effort, the technology is now ready for a larger pilot-scale demonstration and the technology readiness has been raised from TRL 3 to TRL 5. In collaboration UCI, we also completed a high-fidelity process design and economic analysis. The required selling price (RSP) for methanol (Case 1 H2-MeOH) is $\$$3.06/gal, naphtha and diesel (Case 2 H2-FT) are $\$$6.21/gal and $\$$8.91/gal, and for gasoline (Case 3 H2-MTG) is $\$$6.96/gal on a 2011 dollar basis. To put these costs in perspective, the recent (June 2020) U.S. price for methanol made from natural gas is about $\$$1.19/gal according to Methanex, a major methanol producer in North America. The recent (June 2, 2020) California prices for gasoline and diesel with California’s strict specifications are $\$$3.35/gal and $\$$3.73/gal according to the U.S. Energy Information Agency. On the other hand, it should be noted that the gasoline and diesel produced by the designs of Case 2 and Case 3 would be both nitrogen and sulfur free. These RSPs are based on a cost of imported electricity of $\$$64/MWh based on the low-end current wind generated electricity cost (Genevieve and Ramsden, Wind Electrolysis: Hydrogen Cost Optimization, Technical Report, June 2011, NREL/TP-5600-50408). This cost is by far the largest component of the variable costs used in computing the RSPs. The cost of the imported electricity has to approach zero for the RSP to be competitive for methanol produced in Case 1 and naphtha and diesel produced in Case 2 while the cost of electricity has to be less than $\$$10/MWh for gasoline produced in Case 3.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
DOE OSTI2024

Variable Transmission Line Ratings

This paper outlines the concept of variable-transmission facility ratings. This topic is of heightened importance following the recent Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) Order No. 881 which requires the implementation of ambient adjusted ratings (AARs) for FERC jurisdictional portions of the transmission system. Additionally, FERC issued an Advanced Notice of Proposed Rulemaking (ANOPR) implying a future order on Dynamic Line Rating (DLR) requirements. The various types of facility-rating methodologies will be discussed with a focus on how they can benefit the stability, capacity, and reliability of the grid.

24 - POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2023

Quantifying Uncertainty in Ice Particle Velocity–Dimension Relationships Using MC3E Observations

Abstract Ice particle terminal fall velocity ( V t ) is fundamental for determining microphysical processes, yet remains extremely challenging to measure. Current theoretical best estimates of V t are functions of Reynolds number. The Reynolds number is related to the Best number, which is a function of ice particle mass, area ratio ( A r ), and maximum dimension ( D max ). These estimates are not conducive for use in most models since model parameterizations often take the form , where ( α , β ) depend on habit and D max . A previously developed framework is used to determine surfaces of equally plausible ( α , β ) coefficients whereby ice particle size/shape distributions are combined with V t best estimates to determine mass- ( V M ) or reflectivity-weighted ( V Z ) velocities that closely match parameterized V M ,SD or V Z ,SD calculated using the ( α , β ) coefficients using two approaches. The first uses surfaces of equally plausible ( a , b ) coefficients describing mass ( M )–dimension relationships (i.e., ) to calculate mass- or reflectivity-weighted velocity from size/shape distributions that are then used to determine ( α , β ) coefficients. The second investigates how uncertainties in A r , D max , and size distribution N ( D ) affect V M or V Z . For seven of nine flight legs flown on 20 and 23 May 2011 during the Mesoscale Continental Convective Clouds Experiment (MC3E), uncertainty from natural parameter variability—namely, the variability in ice particle parameters in similar meteorological conditions—exceeds uncertainties arising from different A r assumptions or D max estimates. The combined uncertainty between A r , D max , and N ( D ) produced smaller variability in ( α , β ) compared to varying M ( D ), demonstrating M ( D ) must be accurately quantified for model fall velocities. Primary sources of uncertainty vary considerably depending on environmental conditions. Significance Statement Ice particle fall velocity is fundamental for numerous processes within clouds, and hence is a critical property that must be accurately represented in weather and climate models. Using aircraft observations of ice particle shapes and sizes obtained in clouds behind midlatitude thunderstorms, this work develops a new framework for estimating ice particle fall velocities and their uncertainty, including quantifying the importance of different uncertainty sources from cloud microphysics measurements. Natural parameter variability contributes the most uncertainty in ice particle fall velocity estimates, although other sources can also be important contributors to uncertainty in certain conditions. Additional work examining ice particle data is needed to further understand how dependent uncertainty in certain ice particle properties are to local environmental conditions.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2022

Trends in Downwelling Longwave Radiance Over the Southern Great Plains

Downwelling longwave radiation is an important part of the surface energy budget. Spectral trends in the downwelling longwave radiance (DLR) provide insight into the radiative drivers of climate change. In this research, we process and analyze a 23-year DLR record measured by the Atmospheric Emitted Radiance Interferometer (AERI) at the U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Program Southern Great Plains (SGP) site. Two AERIs were deployed at SGP with an overlapping observation period of about 10 years, which allows us to examine the consistency and accuracy of the measurements and to account for discrepancies between them due to errors associated with the instruments themselves. We then analyzed the all-sky radiance trends in DLR, which are associated with the surface warming trend at SGP during this same period and also the complex changes in meteorological conditions. For instance, the observed radiance in the CO2 absorption band follows closely the near-surface air temperature variations. The significant positive radiance trends in weak absorption channels, such as in the wings of the CO 2 band and in the weak absorption channels in the H 2 O vibration-rotational band, show earlier detectability of climate change. The magnitude of the radiance trend uncertainty in the DLR record mainly results from internal climate variability rather than from measurement error, which highlights the importance of continuing the DLR spectral measurements to unambiguously detect and attribute climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

A comparison of model validation approaches for echo state networks using climate model replicates

As global temperatures continue to rise, climate mitigation strategies such as stratospheric aerosol injections (SAI) are increasingly discussed, but the downstream effects of these strategies are not well understood. As such, there is interest in developing statistical methods to quantify the evolution of climate variable relationships during the time period surrounding an SAI. Feature importance applied to echo state network (ESN) models has been proposed as a way to understand the effects of SAI using a data-driven model. This approach depends on the ESN fitting the data well. If not, the feature importance may place importance on features that are not representative of the underlying relationships. Typically, time series prediction models such as ESNs are assessed using out-of-sample performance metrics that divide the times series into separate training and testing sets. However, this model assessment approach is geared towards forecasting applications and not scenarios such as the motivating SAI example where the objective is using a data driven model to capture variable relationships. Here, in this paper, we demonstrate a novel use of climate model replicates to investigate the applicability of the commonly used repeated hold-out model assessment approach for the SAI application. Simulations of an SAI are generated using a simplified climate model, and different initialization conditions are used to provide independent training and testing sets containing the same SAI event. The climate model replicates enable out-of-sample measures of model performance, which are compared to the single time series hold-out validation approach. For our case study, it is found that the repeated hold-out sample performance is comparable, but conservative, to the replicate out-of-sample performance when the training set contains enough time after the aerosol injection.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Investigation of Site Amplifications Using Ambient-Noise-Derived Shallow Velocity Structures Under a Dense Array in Oklahoma

The shear-wave velocity (V S ) structure plays an important role in characterizing site amplification. The Large-n Seismic Survey in Oklahoma (LASSO; 1820 stations) revealed large vertical ground-motion variability in a 25 km × 32 km area in northern Oklahoma. The LASSO array has a relatively simple and flat topography, typical in a sedimentary basin environment in the central United States. In this study, we use the dense array to investigate the velocity structure under the LASSO array and how vertical ground motions relate to the shallow-to-deep structures. We extract the fundamental-mode Rayleigh wave by cross-correlating one month of ambient noise (0.7–5 Hz). We use double-beamforming to measure the group and phase velocities and anisotropy. By jointly inverting the group and phase velocities, we obtain the V S structure. Here, we observe correlations between V S at depths of 0.1–1.5 km and vertical ground motions using sites on the stiffer Permian formations. The shallow Quaternary alluvium and terrace deposits can amplify vertical ground motions by a factor of 2–4.5 between 2 and 25 Hz and attenuate signals above 25 Hz. We use 1D V S profiles to simulate the SV-wave transfer functions. An average V S of 250 m/s in the upper 20–40 m may cause the observed amplification between 2 and 40 Hz. V S estimated by topographic slopes cannot predict the relative amplification. Our results highlight the large variability of site-dependent ground motion in a small local region and the importance of characterizing shallow structures to estimate seismic hazards. Small thickness variations of the shallow formation can significantly change the resonance amplitude and frequency, which likely reduces the coherency of the Rayleigh waves extracted from ambient noise.

Chang, Hilary [Massachusetts Inst. of Technology (↗
DOE OSTI2023

Sensitivity of Near-Surface Variables in the RUC Land Surface Model in the Weather Research and Forecasting Model

In this study, we investigate the parametric sensitivity of near-surface variables, such as sensible heat flux, latent heat flux, ground heat flux, hub-height wind speed and land surface temperature, to the parameters used in the Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) land surface model (LSM) during a wintertime and summertime period. The model simulations are compared with observations collected from the second Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP2) field campaign. The results suggest that parameters related to snow/ice and thermal processes can have significant impact on the simulated near-surface variables. Out of the 11 examined parameters, only 6 of them have considerable influences on the model behaviors and explain about 60 ~ 80 % of the estimated total variance of the simulated variables. In addition, the magnitude of the parametric sensitivity varies with season. For instance, parameters associated with snow/ice processes are dominant during the wintertime whereas those associated with thermal processes are more important during the summertime. Furthermore, the impact of the identified parameters on the simulated variables is highly related to the topography. There is a high degree of sensitivity to the parameter values over the slope region. This points out the importance of collecting field observations over steep areas to better quantity the appropriate values of key parameters. Overall, our findings provide a better understanding of the RUC LSM behavior associated with parameter uncertainties and can be used to improve the forecasting skill of land surface processes via calibration of the most uncertain model parameters.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Battery Degradation Modeling in Hybrid Power Plants: An Island System Unit Commitment Study: Preprint

As hybrid power plants (HPPs), such as photovoltaic (PV) and battery combinations, become increasingly important in power systems with high renewable energy penetration to address PV variability and ensure grid stability. This paper focuses on the urgent need to model the coordination between PV and battery systems in HPPs while accounting for battery degradation. We present a generation scheduling model that explicitly incorporates PV-battery hybridization in the unit commitment problem. Moreover, the cost function of the HPP scheduling problem endogenously considers battery degradation with adjustable weights to strike a balance between minimizing production costs and prolonging battery life, particularly when providing energy arbitrage and ancillary services. Using a realistic island system simulation, we demonstrate that accounting for battery degradation in the scheduling problem can significantly extend battery life with only minor additional production costs.

battery degradation↗
DOE OSTI2026

Guideline for Characterizing and Evaluating a Candidate Project Site for Solar Thermal Applications

This document presents a structured procedure for characterizing and evaluating candidate project sites for concentrating solar power (CSP) and solar heat for industrial processes (SHIP) applications. The objective is to provide project developers, researchers, and other stakeholders with a consistent, technology-agnostic framework for early-stage site assessment, enabling informed decision-making prior to significant investment in project development. Site selection is a critical factor in project success or failure for both CSP and SHIP projects. Key factors such as solar resource availability, land characteristics, environmental and regulatory constraints, infrastructure availability, and community context are determined by the choice of project site and can materially impact project performance, cost, schedule, and overall viability. This procedure is designed to systematically evaluate these factors, identify potential fatal flaws, and prioritize the most favorable candidate sites for further development. The process begins with rapid screening-level evaluation, using publicly available data to assess solar resource, land availability and suitability, zoning and land-use compatibility, and exclusion zones such as protected lands or sensitive habitats. Sites that meet the minimum screening criteria advance to a more detailed characterization. Subsequent sections of this report provide guidance for a next-level assessment of the most important technical and environmental parameters, including: 1) Solar resource quality, variability, and uncertainty using multiyear datasets and, where appropriate, on-site measurement campaigns; 2) Meteorological conditions such as wind, temperature, extreme weather events, and soiling impacts; 3) Land characteristics including slope, shading, and geotechnical conditions; and 4) Environmental and regulatory considerations, including permitting processes, endangered species, cultural resources, and visual impacts. The procedure also addresses infrastructure and integration considerations, including: 1) Grid interconnection requirements for CSP power generation projects; 2) Electrical and operational integration for SHIP facilities; 3) Water availability, quality, and permitting constraints, which are particularly critical for CSP in arid regions; and 4) Site access, construction logistics, and availability of workforce and supporting services. Recognizing the importance of social and economic context, the procedure includes evaluation of community engagement factors, such as stakeholder sentiment, proximity to sensitive visual receptors, workforce development opportunities, and local economic incentives. The outputs of these assessments are synthesized in a cost and risk evaluation, translating site characteristics into expected impacts on capital cost, operating cost, schedule, and technical risk. This is complemented by screening-level performance modeling, including 8760 simulations and long-term projections, to quantify expected energy or thermal output, assess variability thereof, and support comparison between candidate sites. Finally, the procedure provides high-level guidance on a structured go/no-go decision framework, categorizing sites based on identified risks and constraints, and outlining a clear path forward to feasibility studies and front-end engineering design for viable projects. By standardizing the site characterization process across both CSP and SHIP applications, this guideline aims to: 1) Improve consistency and transparency in early-stage project evaluation; 2) Reduce development risk and avoid investment in nonviable project sites; 3) Support collaboration between developers, researchers, and public agencies; and 4) Accelerate successful deployment of concentrating solar technologies for both power generation and industrial process heat.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Harnessing Machine Learning to Predict MoS 2 Solid Lubricant Performance

Physical vapor deposited (PVD) molybdenum disulfide (MoS 2 ) solid lubricant coatings are an exemplar material system for machine learning methods due to small changes in process variables often causing large variations in microstructure and mechanical/tribological properties. Here, in this work, a gradient boosted regression tree machine learning method is applied to an existing experimental data set containing process, microstructure, and property information to create deeper insights into the process-structure–property relationships for molybdenum disulfide (MoS 2 ) solid lubricant coatings. The optimized and cross-validated models show good predictive capabilities for density, reduced modulus, hardness, wear rate, and initial coefficients of friction. The contribution of individual deposition variables (i.e., argon pressure, deposition power, target conditioning) on coating properties is highlighted through feature importance. The process-property relationships established herein show linear and non-linear relationships and highlight the influence of uncontrolled deposition variables (i.e., target conditioning) on the tribological performance.

MoS2↗
DOE OSTI2021

Microbial Community Characteristics Largely Unaffected by X-Ray Computed Tomography of Sediment Cores

X-ray computed tomography (CT) scanning is used to study the physical characteristics of soil and sediment cores, allowing scientists to analyze stratigraphy without destroying core integrity. Microbiologists often work with geologists to understand the microbial properties in such cores; however, we do not know whether CT scanning alters microbial DNA such that DNA sequencing, a common method of community characterization, changes as a result of X-ray exposure. Our objective was to determine whether CT scanning affects the estimates of the composition of microbial communities that exist in cores. Sediment cores were extracted from a salt marsh and then submitted for CT scanning. We observed a minimal effect of CT scanning on microbial community composition in the sediment cores either when the cores were examined shortly after recovery from the field or after the cores had been stored for several weeks. In contrast, properties such as sediment layer and marsh location did affect microbial community structure. While we observed that CT scanning did not alter microbial community composition as a whole, we identified a few amplicon sequence variants (13 out of 7,037) that showed differential abundance patterns between scanned and unscanned samples among paired sample sets. Our overall conclusion is that the CT-scanning conditions typically used to obtain images for geological core characterization do not significantly alter microbial community structure. We stress that minimizing core exposure to X-rays is important if cores are to be studied for biological properties. Future investigations might consider variables, such as the length and energy of radiation exposure, the volume of the core, or the degree, to which microbial communities are stressed as important factors in assessing the impact of X-rays on microbes in geological cores.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Constraining Bedrock Groundwater Residence Times in a Mountain System With Environmental Tracer Observations and Bayesian Uncertainty Quantification

Groundwater residence time distributions provide fundamental insights on the hydrological processes within watersheds. Yet, observations that can constrain groundwater residence times over broad timescales remain scarce in mountain catchment studies. We use environmental tracers (CFC-12, SF 6 , 3 H, and 4 He) to investigate groundwater residence times along a hillslope in the East River Watershed, Colorado, USA. We develop a Bayesian inference framework that applies a Markov-chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach to estimate noble gas recharge temperature, elevation, and excess-air parameters and the resulting environmental tracer concentrations. MCMC is then used to propagate the environmental tracer uncertainties to estimates of groundwater mean residence times inferred with lumped parameter models. All samples contain 3 H, CFC-12, and SF 6 in addition to terrigenic 4 He, suggesting a mixture of water characterized by modern and premodern residence times. 4He exponential mean residence times range from hundreds of years at the upslope well to thousands of years at the toe-slope well assuming average crustal production rates. We find that binary mixing residence time distributions with separate young and old mixing fractions are needed to predict the 4 He, CFC-12, SF 6 , and 3 H observations, supporting the importance of flow path mixing in this bedrock system. Our findings that the fractured bedrock hosts groundwater with a mixture of residence times ranging from decades to millennia suggest variable recharge dynamics and flow path mixing along the hillslope and highlight the importance of characterizing groundwater systems with observations that are sensitive to transport over a broad range of residence times.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Predictive analytics of selections of russet potatoes

We explore the application of machine learning algorithms specifically to enhance the selection process of Russet potato (Solanum tuberosum L.) clones in breeding trials by predicting their suitability for advancement. This study addresses the challenge of efficiently identifying high-yield, disease-resistant, and climate-resilient potato varieties that meet processing industry standards. Leveraging manually collected data from trials in the state of Oregon, we investigate the potential of a wide variety of state-of-the-art binary classification models. The dataset includes 1086 clones, with data on 38 attributes recorded for each clone, focusing on yield, size, appearance, and frying characteristics, with several control varieties planted consistently across four Oregon regions from 2013 to 2021. We conduct a comprehensive analysis of the dataset that includes preprocessing, feature engineering, and imputation to address missing values. We focus on several key metrics such as accuracy, F1-score, and Matthews correlation coefficient (MCC) for model evaluation. The top-performing models, namely a feedforward neural network classifier (Neural Net), a histogram-based gradient boosting classifier (HGBC), and a support vector machine classifier (SVM), demonstrate consistent and significant results. To further validate our findings, we conducted a simulation study using the aims, data-generating mechanisms, estimands, methods, and performance measures (ADEMP) framework, simulating different data-generating scenarios to assess model robustness and performance through true positive, true negative, false positive, and false negative distributions, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC-ROC) and MCC. The simulation results highlight that non-linear models like SVM and HGBC consistently show higher AUC-ROC and MCC than logistic regression, thus outperforming the traditional linear model across various distributions, and emphasizing the importance of model selection and tuning in agricultural trials. Variable selection further enhances model performance and identifies influential features in predicting trial outcomes. The findings emphasize the potential of machine learning in streamlining the selection process for potato varieties, offering benefits such as increased efficiency, substantial cost savings, and judicious resource utilization. Our study contributes insights into precision agriculture and showcases the relevance of advanced technologies for informed decision-making in breeding programs.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Record-breaking 2020 summer marine heatwaves in the western North Pacific

Record-breaking marine heatwaves (MHWs) occurred in the western North Pacific during the summer of 2020. These unprecedented MHWs were consistent with favorable large-scale conditions that are linked to an anomalous western North Pacific subtropical high (WNPSH), resulting mainly from sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies across the tropical oceans. In addition, a moderate La Niña-like pattern was also conducive to transporting warm seawater to the western North Pacific. Mixed-layer heat budgets suggest that surface heat flux contributed to the SST anomaly in the western subtropical Pacific. In contrast, oceanic heat advection dominanted in the South China Sea and the western equatorial Pacific. Numerical model experiments indicated that the tropical Indian Ocean SST anomalies were responsible for the enhanced WNPSH. The increased zonal SST gradient across the tropical Pacific also played an important role. Inter-ocean interactions can modulate climate variability through ocean-atmospheric coupling and deserve more attention when predicting MHWs within the context of global warming. Additionally, it is critical to consider MHWs as a powerful tool in detecting acute, intense thermal stress events in the coral bleaching pre-warning system.

Coral bleaching↗
DOE OSTI2021

Climate reconstructions for the Last Glacial Maximum from a simple cirque glacier in Fiordland, New Zealand

Mountain glacier records offer important constraints on the timing and magnitude of climate variability during the last glacial cycle. Existing moraine chronologies from the central Southern Alps indicate maximum ice extent was achieved during marine isotope stages 3–4, followed by repeated advances of similar, but gradually declining extent during marine isotope stage 2, until onset of the glacial termination. Questions remain over the precise role of climate in driving these changes, as most existing moraine chronologies come from large, complex former valley glacier systems, where non-climatic influences such as changing bed topography and proglacial lake formation may have influenced glacier length changes. In this work, we address this problem via a new cosmogenic 10Be chronology and equilibrium line altitude reconstruction from a cirque glacier situated in Fiordland, New Zealand. Our chronology shows moraine deposition at 32 ± 11 ka, 18.7 ± 0.2 ka, 18.1 ± 0.1 ka, and c. 17.2 ± 0.3 ka. The simple geometry of the former glacier supports the role of climate in driving a net decline of regional ice volume during marine isotope stages 3–2. Close spacing and good preservation of the 19–17 ka moraines permits 2D glacier reconstruction which suggests the equilibrium line altitude remained depressed by c.1130 m (equivalent to 5.8 ± 0.6 °C colder than present) during this interval. Onset of warming after 17.2 ± 0.2 ka is consistent with climate proxy evidence for a sustained southward shift in the southern westerly winds, which may have promoted deglaciation via shifting ocean currents and promoting increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗