SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “variability prediction”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 361 records · Page 20

All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

NASA NTRS2013

Modeling Errors in Daily Precipitation Measurements: Additive or Multiplicative?

The definition and quantification of uncertainty depend on the error model used. For uncertainties in precipitation measurements, two types of error models have been widely adopted: the additive error model and the multiplicative error model. This leads to incompatible specifications of uncertainties and impedes intercomparison and application.In this letter, we assess the suitability of both models for satellite-based daily precipitation measurements in an effort to clarify the uncertainty representation. Three criteria were employed to evaluate the applicability of either model: (1) better separation of the systematic and random errors; (2) applicability to the large range of variability in daily precipitation; and (3) better predictive skills. It is found that the multiplicative error model is a much better choice under all three criteria. It extracted the systematic errors more cleanly, was more consistent with the large variability of precipitation measurements, and produced superior predictions of the error characteristics. The additive error model had several weaknesses, such as non constant variance resulting from systematic errors leaking into random errors, and the lack of prediction capability. Therefore, the multiplicative error model is a better choice.

Modeling↗

NASA NTRS1997

A New Approach to Extreme Value Estimation Applicable to a Wide Variety of Random Variables

Designing reliable structures requires an estimate of the maximum and minimum values (i.e., strength and load) that may be encountered in service. Yet designs based on very extreme values (to insure safety) can result in extra material usage and hence, uneconomic systems. In aerospace applications, severe over-design cannot be tolerated making it almost mandatory to design closer to the assumed limits of the design random variables. The issue then is predicting extreme values that are practical, i.e. neither too conservative or non-conservative. Obtaining design values by employing safety factors is well known to often result in overly conservative designs and. Safety factor values have historically been selected rather arbitrarily, often lacking a sound rational basis. To answer the question of how safe a design needs to be has lead design theorists to probabilistic and statistical methods. The so-called three-sigma approach is one such method and has been described as the first step in utilizing information about the data dispersion. However, this method is based on the assumption that the random variable is dispersed symmetrically about the mean and is essentially limited to normally distributed random variables. Use of this method can therefore result in unsafe or overly conservative design allowables if the common assumption of normality is incorrect.

Holland, Frederic A., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS1999

Potential Predictability of the Monsoon Subclimate Systems

While El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon can be predicted with some success using coupled oceanic-atmospheric models, the skill of predicting the tropical monsoons is low regardless of the methods applied. The low skill of monsoon prediction may be either because the monsoons are not defined appropriately or because they are not influenced significantly by boundary forcing. The latter characterizes the importance of internal dynamics in monsoon variability and leads to many eminent chaotic features of the monsoons. In this study, we analyze results from nine AMIP-type ensemble experiments with the NASA/GEOS-2 general circulation model to assess the potential predictability of the tropical climate system. We will focus on the variability and predictability of tropical monsoon rainfall on seasonal-to-interannual time scales. It is known that the tropical climate is more predictable than its extratropical counterpart. However, predictability is different from one climate subsystem to another within the tropics. It is important to understand the differences among these subsystems in order to increase our skill of seasonal-to-interannual prediction. We assess potential predictability by comparing the magnitude of internal and forced variances as defined by Harzallah and Sadourny (1995). The internal variance measures the spread among the various ensemble members. The forced part of rainfall variance is determined by the magnitude of the ensemble mean rainfall anomaly and by the degree of consistency of the results from the various experiments.

Yang, Song↗

NASA NTRS2004

Role of Turbulent Prandtl Number on Heat Flux at Hypersonic Mach Number

Present simulation of turbulent flows involving shock wave/boundary layer interaction invariably overestimates heat flux by almost a factor of two. One possible reason for such a performance is a result of the fact that the turbulence models employed make use of Morkovin's hypothesis. This hypothesis is valid for non-hypersonic Mach numbers and moderate rates of heat transfer. At hypersonic Mach numbers, high rates of heat transfer exist in regions where shock wave/boundary layer interactions are important. As a result, one should not expect traditional turbulence models to yield accurate results. The goal of this investigation is to explore the role of a variable Prandtl number formulation in predicting heat flux in flows dominated by strong shock wave/boundary layer interactions. The intended applications involve external flows in the absence of combustion such as those encountered in supersonic inlets. This can be achieved by adding equations for the temperature variance and its dissipation rate. Such equations can be derived from the exact Navier-Stokes equations. Traditionally, modeled equations are based on the low speed energy equation where the pressure gradient term and the term responsible for energy dissipation are ignored. It is clear that such assumptions are not valid for hypersonic flows. The approach used here is based on the procedure used in deriving the k-zeta model, in which the exact equations that governed k, the variance of velocity, and zeta, the variance of vorticity, were derived and modeled. For the variable turbulent Prandtl number, the exact equations that govern the temperature variance and its dissipation rate are derived and modeled term by term. The resulting set of equations are free of damping and wall functions and are coordinate-system independent. Moreover, modeled correlations are tensorially consistent and invariant under Galilean transformation. The final set of equations will be given in the paper.

Xiao, X.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Evaporation of LOX under supercritical and subcritical conditions

The evaporation of LOX under supercritical and subcritical conditions was studied experimentally and theoretically. In experiments, the evaporation rate and surface temperature were measured for LOX strand vaporizing in helium environments at pressures ranging from 5 to 68 atmospheres. Gas sampling and chromatography analysis were also employed to profile the gas composition above the LOX surface for the purpose of model validation. A comprehensive theoretical model was formulated and solved numerically to simulate the evaporation process of LOX at high pressures. The model was based on the conservation equations of mass, momentum, energy, and species concentrations for a multicomponent system, with consideration of gravitational body force, solubility of ambient gases in liquid, and variable thermophysical properties. Good agreement between predictions and measured oxygen mole fraction profiles was obtained. The effect of pressure on the distribution of the Lewis number, as well as the effect of variable diffusion coefficient, were further examined to elucidate the high-pressure transport behavior exhibited in the LOX vaporization process.

Yang, A. S.↗

NASA NTRS2001

Improving Space Project Cost Estimating with Engineering Management Variables

Current space project cost models attempt to predict space flight project cost via regression equations, which relate the cost of projects to technical performance metrics (e.g. weight, thrust, power, pointing accuracy, etc.). This paper examines the introduction of engineering management parameters to the set of explanatory variables. A number of specific engineering management variables are considered and exploratory regression analysis is performed to determine if there is statistical evidence for cost effects apart from technical aspects of the projects. It is concluded that there are other non-technical effects at work and that further research is warranted to determine if it can be shown that these cost effects are definitely related to engineering management.

Hamaker, Joseph W.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Formational History and Geomorphic Preservation of Sea Level Highstands Over the Last 150 ky Near Cape Canaveral, Florida, USA

Cape Canaveral, Florida, is perhaps one of the most important stretches of coastline in the United States of America (USA) due to its critical strategic role in the pursuit of space exploration and as the locus of advanced technological innovation. Due to its geographical setting, the entirety of Cape Canaveral, including its infrastructure, facilities, and important natural habitats (e.g., wetlands, estuaries and dunes) is vulnerable to coastal hazards such as continued sea level rise, storm surges, erosion and flooding. As such, accurate sea level characterization and coastal resiliency predictions are essential to promoting long-term coastal planning and sustainability in the area. This study aims to better understand the temporal and spatial evolution of this area with the purpose of more accurately documenting historical sea level fluctuations and calibrating more localized projections at this site. The Cape Canaveral coastline is situated on a passive margin mostly affected by oceanic (sea level change and wave impact) and atmospheric (aeolian) alteration. This sector is part of the east Florida coast microtidal (1.2 m) setting and low wave energy (1.2-1.6 m and 6.1-8.2 sec for average significant waves) regime and is defined by a well delineated set of beach ridge or cape systems. While the name “Cape Canaveral” is often used as a generic term to describe the geographic area, it is actually an amalgamation or complex of multiple preserved capes. The preserved Cape Canaveral beach ridge plain has largely documented the paleo-sea level highstand history over the last 150 ky. High-resolution mapping of these beach ridges is completed using GPS, LiDAR, aerial, as well as satellite imagery. In order to reconstruct the formational history of the Cape Kennedy Complex and the preserved record of sea level highstands, these detailed geomorphological observations are integrated with OSL and C14 dating techniques. The chronological framework delineated by the OSL dates coupled with detailed geomorphological mapping allows for the creation of high-resolution calibrated site-specific sea level curves that reflect the local environmental and geological conditions. This refinement has the potential to improve the understanding of past sea level variability which is crucial for predicting future trends and assessing the impacts on coastal regions such as Cape Canaveral.

geomorphology↗

NASA NTRS1972

Momentum flux in two phase two component low quality flow

In two phase flow systems line losses comprise frictional and momentum pressure drops. For design purposes, it would be desirable to estimate the line losses employing a one-dimensional calculation. Two methods for computing one-dimensional momentum flux at a test section discharge station are compared to the experimental value for a range of two-phase flow conditions. The one-dimensional homogeneous model appears to be more accurate generally in predicting the momentum than the variable slip model.

Baumeister, K. J.↗

NASA NTRS1976

Analysis of information systems for hydropower operations: Executive summary

An analysis was performed of the operations of hydropower systems, with emphasis on water resource management, to determine how aerospace derived information system technologies can effectively increase energy output. Better utilization of water resources was sought through improved reservoir inflow forecasting based on use of hydrometeorologic information systems with new or improved sensors, satellite data relay systems, and use of advanced scheduling techniques for water release. Specific mechanisms for increased energy output were determined, principally the use of more timely and accurate short term (0-7 days) inflow information to reduce spillage caused by unanticipated dynamic high inflow events. The hydrometeorologic models used in predicting inflows were examined in detail to determine the sensitivity of inflow prediction accuracy to the many variables employed in the models, and the results were used to establish information system requirements. Sensor and data handling system capabilities were reviewed and compared to the requirements, and an improved information system concept was outlined.

Sohn, R. L.↗

NASA NTRS1976

Analysis of information systems for hydropower operations

The operations of hydropower systems were analyzed with emphasis on water resource management, to determine how aerospace derived information system technologies can increase energy output. Better utilization of water resources was sought through improved reservoir inflow forecasting based on use of hydrometeorologic information systems with new or improved sensors, satellite data relay systems, and use of advanced scheduling techniques for water release. Specific mechanisms for increased energy output were determined, principally the use of more timely and accurate short term (0-7 days) inflow information to reduce spillage caused by unanticipated dynamic high inflow events. The hydrometeorologic models used in predicting inflows were examined to determine the sensitivity of inflow prediction accuracy to the many variables employed in the models, and the results used to establish information system requirements. Sensor and data handling system capabilities were reviewed and compared to the requirements, and an improved information system concept outlined.

Sohn, R. L.↗

NASA NTRS1977

The momentum transfer of incompressible turbulent separated flow due to cavities with steps

An experimental study was conducted using a plate test bed having a turbulent boundary layer to determine the momentum transfer to the faces of step/cavity combinations on the plate. Experimental data were obtained from configurations including an isolated configuration and an array of blocks in tile patterns. A momentum transfer correlation model of pressure forces on an isolated step/cavity was developed with experimental results to relate flow and geometry parameters. Results of the experiments reveal that isolated step/cavity excrecences do not have a unique and unifying parameter group due in part to cavity depth effects and in part to width parameter scale effects. Drag predictions for tile patterns by a kinetic pressure empirical method predict experimental results well. Trends were not, however, predicted by a method of variable roughness density phenomenology.

White, R. E.↗

NASA NTRS1978

Application of finite element techniques in predicting the acoustic properties of turbofan inlets

An analytical technique was developed for predicting the acoustic performance of turbofan inlets carrying a subsonic axisymmetric steady flow. The finite element method combined with the method of weighted residuals is used in predicting the acoustic properties of variable area, annular ducts with or without acoustic treatments along their walls. An approximate solution for the steady inviscid flow field is obtained using an integral method for calculating the incompressible potential flow field in the inlet with a correction to account for compressibility effects. The accuracy of the finite element technique was assessed by comparison with available analytical solutions for the problems of plane and spinning wave propagation through a hard walled annular cylinder with a constant mean flow.

Majjigi, R. K.↗

NASA NTRS1979

Solar-induced variations of environment affecting manned space flight and spacecraft operations

Estimates of short and long term solar activity are required for calculating variations in the environment with regard to spacecraft charging, radiation effects, and orbital lifetime. Correlations appear to exist between the time of solar activity and the time of operational anomalies due to electrical discharges when the dielectric surfaces of geosynchronous spacecraft are charged by interaction with the ambient plasma to levels above breakdown voltage. An ability to predict the solar induced variation variability of the plasmas could permit refinement of design criteria. The influence of the radiation on spacecraft materials, systems, and manned operations is summarized. Solar radition effects on the orbital altitude atmospheric density environment and spacecraft lifetimes are also considered.

Johnson, W. G.↗

NASA NTRS1981

Durability/life of fiber composites in hygrothermomechanical environments

Statistical analysis and multiple regression were used to determine and quantify the significant hygrothermomechanical variables which infuence the tensile durability/life (cycle loading, fatigue) of boron-fiber/epoxy-matrix (B/E) and high-modulus-fiber/epoxy-matrix (HMS/E) composites. The use of the multiple regression analysis reduced the variables from fifteen, assumed initially, to six or less with a probability of greater than 0.999. The reduced variables were used to derive predictive models for compression an intralaminar shear durability/life of B/E and HMS/E composites assuming isoparametric fatigue behavior. The predictive models were subsequently generalized to predict the durability/life of graphite-fiber-r generalized model is of simple form, predicts conservative values compared with measured data and should be adequate for use in preliminary designs.

Chamis, C. C.↗

NASA NTRS1981

Low luminosity galactic X-ray sources

Models of soft X-ray emission from low-luminosity galactic X-ray sources are compared with currently available data. Emphasis is placed on disk population stars, irrespective of source temperatures spectral type, luminosity class, and age; and predictions of source temperatures and variability have been used to distinguish between the various models. It is tentatively found that the X-ray emission characteristics of late and early spectral types, and young and old stars, share many similarities; an economical explanation for this is the manifestation of coronal surface activity modulated by the stellar parameters that govern stellar magnetic activity (e.g., rotation). In some cases (such as for OB stars), a proper theory accounting for the heating of the coronal plasma does not exist.

Vaiana, G. S.↗

NASA NTRS1984

Estimating the Lifetimes of Nickel/Cadmium Cells

Equation based on model of flaw growth. Model assumes cell fails by growth of preexisting flaws. Flaws described by three important quantities: total number of flaws, distribution of flaw sizes and rate of flaw growth. When flaw reaches critical size failure occurs. Flaw concept, in addition to providing ready explanation for reduced lifetime, predicts two important charateristics: statistical variability of lifetime data and dependence of lifetime on volume of sample.

Fedors, R. F.↗

NASA NTRS1982

Observations of magnetic fields on solar-type stars

Magnetic-field observations were carried out for 29 G and K main-sequence stars. The area covering-factors of magnetic regions tends to be greater in the K dwarfs than in the G dwarfs. However, no spectral-type dependence is found for the field strengths, contrary to predictions that pressure equilibrium with the ambient photospheric gas pressure would determine the surface field strengths. Coronal soft X-ray fluxes from the G and K dwarfs correlate well with the fraction of the stellar surface covered by magnetic regions. The dependence of coronal soft X-ray fluxes on photospheric field strengths is consistent with Stein's predicted generation-rates for Alfven waves. These dependences are inconsistent with the one dynamo model for which a specific prediction is offered. Finally, time variability of magnetic fields is seen on the two active stars that have been extensively monitored. Significant changes in magnetic fields are seen to occur on timescales as short as one day.

Marcy, G. W.↗

NASA NTRS1983

The detection of H2 in cool carbon stars

Spectra of several carbon stars in the two micron region are examined and compared with synthetic spectra from model atmospheres. Molecular hydrogen has been directly observed in carbon stars for the first time through the quadrupole 1-0 S(1) line at 4712.9/cm. It is definitely present in several Mira variables, and is definitely not present in several irregular variables and one Mira variable. A discrepancy between the predicted and observed line depths at different temperatures is shown. Resolution of the discrepancy by change of temperature alone would require an upward revision of the present effective temperature scale by at least 600 K. Several possible resolutions of the dilemma are briefly examined.

Goebel, J. H.↗