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At least 361 records · Page 20

Improved Earth Sensor Performance Using a Sequentially Correlated Noise Model

Spacecraft attitude estimation by means of an extended Kalman filter requires a reasonably true model of the inherent noise of each sensor. For some sensors, the largest uncorrected noise comes not from the sensor itself, but from errors in the model for the predicted observations. This is certainly the case for Earth horizon sensors. The Earth horizon as seen from low Earth orbit is nearly a circle whose radius depends primarily on altitude. A straightforward latitude-dependent correction is added to this to account for the oblateness of the Earth. There also are both seasonal and stochastic variations in the horizon height. The seasonal variations can be predicted to some limited degree based on models de(ived from historical data. The stochastic component characteristically shows variations that are correlated both in time and space but which are unpredictable over long time spans. This work investigates whether Earth horizon sensor performance can be improved by solving for its systematic error as an augmentation of an attitude Kalman filter. It is found that using only Earth and Sun sensors, the augmented state is not fully observable. Even when magnetometer data is included, only the pitch axis component of the error can be improved; the roll component is unobservable.

Sedlak, Joseph↗

Improved Earth Sensor Performance Using a Sequentially Correlated Noise Model

Spacecraft attitude estimation by means of an extended Kalman filter requires a reasonably true model of the inherent noise of each sensor. For some sensors, the largest uncorrected noise comes not from the sensor itself, but from errors in the model for the predicted observations. This is certainly the case for Earth horizon sensors. The Earth horizon as seen from low Earth orbit is nearly a circle whose radius depends primarily on altitude. A straightforward latitude-dependent correction is added to this to account for the oblateness of the Earth. There also are both seasonal and stochastic variations in the horizon height. The seasonal variations can be predicted to some limited degree based on models derived from historical data. The stochastic component characteristically shows variations that are correlated both in time and space but which are unpredictable over long time spans. This work investigates whether Earth horizon sensor performance can be improved by solving for its systematic error as an augmentation of an attitude Kalman filter. It is found that using only Earth and Sun sensors, the augmented state is not fully observable. Even when magnetometer data is included, only the pitch axis component of the error can be improved; the roll component is unobservable.

Sedlak, J.↗

Ionized Outflows in 3-D Insights from Herbig-Haro Objects and Applications to Nearby AGN

HST shows that the gas distributions of these objects are complex and clump at the limit of resolution. HST spectra have lumpy emission-line profiles, indicating unresolved sub-structure. The advantages of 3D over slits on gas so distributed are: robust flux estimates of various dynamical systems projected along lines of sight, sensitivity to fainter spectral lines that are physical diagnostics (reddening-gas density, T, excitation mechanisms, abundances), and improved prospects for recovery of unobserved dimensions of phase-space. These advantages al- low more confident modeling for more profound inquiry into underlying dynamics. The main complication is the effort required to link multi- frequency datasets that optimally track the energy flow through various phases of the ISM. This tedium has limited the number of objects that have been thoroughly analyzed to the a priori most spectacular systems. For HHO'S, proper-motions constrain the ambient B-field, shock velocity, gas abundances, mass-loss rates, source duty-cycle, and tie-ins with molecular flows. If the shock speed, hence ionization fraction, is indeed small then the ionized gas is a significant part of the flow energetics. For AGN'S, nuclear beaming is a source of ionization ambiguity. Establishing the energetics of the outflow is critical to determining how the accretion disk loses its energy. CXO will provide new constraints (especially spectral) on AGN outflows, and STIS UV-spectroscopy is also constraining cloud properties (although limited by extinction). HHO's show some of the things that we will find around AGN'S. I illustrate these points with results from ground-based and HST programs being pursued with collaborators.

Cecil, Gerald↗

Analysis of New Orion Gamma Ray Data and Monte Carlo Simulations of BATSE Gamma Ray Bursts

These studies were stimulated by the reported COMPTEL detection of nuclear gamma ray line emission from the Orion star formation region. Although the observation have very recently been retracted, the detailed analyses that we carried out clearly showed that the low energy cosmic rays that would have been required to explain the reported fluxes were exceedingly restrictive and thus highly improbable. Moreover, these studies proved to be the trigger for very productive new work. In particular, they led us into carefully re-examining the problem of the origin of the light elements, Li, Be and B, where we showed that the light elements could, in fact, be produced primarily by Galactic cosmic rays and did not require an unobserved low energy cosmic ray source , as had been suggested. We further showed that the observed abundances of Be and B in old halo stars contradicted the common belief that the Galactic cosmic rays were accelerated out of the well mixed interstellar medium, and required instead that they be accelerated out of freshly synthesized matter from supernovae. This work, in turn, led us to propose a new origin of Galactic cosmic rays from the refractory grains in supernova enriched cores of superbubbles.

Lingenfelter, Richard E.↗

Theoretical Studies in Gamma-Ray Astrophysics

These studies were stimulated by the reported COMPTEL detection of nuclear gamma ray line emission from the Orion star formation region. Although the observation have very recently been retracted, the detailed analyses that we carried out clearly showed that the low energy cosmic rays that would have been required to explain the reported fluxes were exceedingly restrictive and thus highly improbable. More importantly, these studies proved to be the trigger for very productive new work. In particular, they led us into carefully re-examining the problem of the origin of the light elements, Li, Be and B, where we showed that the light elements could, in fact, be produced primarily by Galactic cosmic rays and did not require an unobserved low energy cosmic ray source , as had been suggested. We further showed that the observed abundances of Be and B in old halo stars contradicted the common belief that the Galactic cosmic rays were accelerated out of the well mixed interstellar medium, and required instead that they be accelerated out of freshly synthesized matter from supernovae. This work, in turn, led us to propose a new origin of Galactic cosmic rays from the refractory grains in supernova enriched core of superbubbles, which is now the subject of our on-going research under a new grant from the Astrophysics Theory Program.

Lingenfelter, Richard E.↗

Remote Sensing Methods

Remotely sensed data allows archeologists and historic preservationists the ability to non-destructively detect phenomena previously unobservable to them. Archeologists have successfully used aerial photography since the turn of the century and it continues to be an important research tool today. Multispectral scanners and computer-implemented analysis techniques extend the range of human vision and provides the investigator with innovative research designs at scales previously unimaginable. Pioneering efforts in the use of remote sensing technology have demonstrated its potential, but it is the recent technological developments in remote sensing instrumentation and computer capability that provide for unlimited, cost-effective applications in the future. The combination of remote sensing, Global Positioning System (GPS) technology, and Geographic Information Systems (GIS) are radically altering survey, inventory, and modelling approaches.

Sever, Thomas L.↗

Multiwavelength Observations of a Dramatic High-Energy Flare in the Blazar 3C 279

The blazar 3C 279, one of the brightest identified extragalactic objects in the gamma-ray sky, underwent a large (factor of approximately 10 in amplitude) flare in gamma-rays toward the end of a 3 week pointing by Compton Gamma Ray Observatory (CGRO), in 1996 January-February. The flare peak represents the highest gamma-ray intensity ever recorded for this object. During the high state, extremely rapid gamma-ray variability was seen, including an increase of a factor of 2.6 in approximately 8 hr, which strengthens the case for relativistic beaming. Coordinated multifrequency observations were carried out with Rossi X-Ray Timing Explorer (RXTE), Advanced Satellite for Cosmology and Astrophysics (ASCA; or, Astro-D), Roentgen Satellite (ROSAT), and International Ultraviolet Explorer (IUE) and from many ground-based observatories, covering most accessible wavelengths. The well-sampled, simultaneous RXTE light curve shows an outburst of lower amplitude (factor of approximately = 3) well correlated with the gamma-ray flare without any lag larger than the temporal resolution of approximately 1 day. The optical-UV light curves, which are not well sampled during the high-energy flare, exhibit more modest variations (factor of approximately 2) and a lower degree of correlation. The flux at millimetric wavelengths was near a historical maximum during the gamma-ray flare peak, and there is a suggestion of a correlated decay. We present simultaneous spectral energy distributions of 3C 279 prior to and near to the flare peak. The gamma-rays vary by more than the square of the observed IR-optical flux change, which poses some problems for specific blazar emission models. The synchrotron self-Compton (SSC) model would require that the largest synchrotron variability occurred in the mostly unobserved submillimeter/far-infrared region. Alternatively, a large variation in the external photon field could occur over a time-scale of a few days. This occurs naturally in the "mirror" model wherein the flaring region in the jet photoionizes nearby broad emission line clouds, which, in turn, provide soft external photons that are Comptonized to gamma-ray energies.

Wehrle, A. E.↗

Multiwavelength Observations of a Dramatic High-Energy Flare in the Blazar 3C 279

The blazar 3C 279, one of the brightest identified extragalactic objects in the gamma-ray sky, underwent a large (factor of approx. 10 in amplitude) flare in gamma-rays toward the end of a 3 week pointing by Compton Gamma Ray Observatory (CGRO), in 1996 January-February. The flare peak represents the highest gamma-ray intensity ever recorded for this object. During the high state, extremely rapid gamma-ray variability was seen, including an increase of a factor of 2.6 in approx. 8 hrs., which strengthens the case for relativistic beaming. Coordinated multifrequency observations were carried out with Rossi X-Ray Timing Explorer (RXTE), Advanced Satellite for Cosmology and Astrophysics (ASCA; or, Astro-D), Roentgen Satellite (ROSAT), and International Ultraviolet Explorer (IUE) and from many ground-based observatories, covering most accessible wavelengths. The well-sampled, simultaneous RXTE light curve shows an outburst of lower amplitude (factor of approx. or equal to 3) well correlated with the gamma-ray flare without any lag larger than the temporal resolution of approx. 1 day. The optical-UV light curves, which are not well sampled during the high-energy flare, exhibit more modest variations (factor of approx. 2) and a lower degree of correlation. The flux at millimetric wavelengths was near a historical maximum during the gamma-ray flare peak, and there is a suggestion of a correlated decay. We present simultaneous spectral energy distributions of 3C 279 prior to and near to the flare peak. The gamma-rays vary by more than the square of the observed IR-optical flux change, which poses some problems for specific blazar emission models. The synchrotron self-Compton (SSC) model would require that the largest synchrotron variability occurred in the mostly unobserved submillimeter/far-infrared region. Alternatively, a large variation in the external photon field could occur over a time scale of a few days. This occurs naturally in the "mirror" model wherein the flaring region in the jet photoionizes nearby broad emission line clouds, which, in turn, provide soft external photons that are Comptonized to gamma-ray energies.

Wehrle, A. E.↗

SGR 1900+14

SGR 1900+14 soft gamma-ray repeater has entered an extraordinary new phase of activity with a previously unobserved frequency and intensity of bursts. Activity began on May 26 and has continued at least through May 30. Triangulation with Ulysses and BATSE gives a preliminary annulus whose center is at R.A. = 2lh58ml8s, Decl. = -11ol8'.4 (equinox 2000.0), and whose radius is 47.269 +/- 0.019 deg. This annulus includes the network synthesis error box (Hurley et al. 1994, Ap.J. 431, L31), the ROSAT source proposed as a possible quiescent x-ray counterpart to the soft repeater, and the peculiar double M star system coincident with the ROSAT source. As all these locations are mutually consistent, we conclude that the ROSAT source and M star system are indeed the counterparts to the soft gamma-ray repeater, and urge that observations at other wavelengths be undertaken immediately, while the source remains active. An image may be found at http://ssl.berkeley.edu/ipn3/sgrl9OO+l4/. On May 30, BATSE triggered on an extremely intense outburst from this source that comprised at least 38 bursts of varying intensity and duration; the series of bursts started at May 30.37759 UT and lasted for about 350 s. The peak flux of each of the three major bursts in the series is 1.1 x lOE-4 erg cmE-2 sE-1 (between 25 and 300 keV, integrated for 128 ms). Assuming a distance of about 12 kpc for SGR 1900+14, this corresponds to a luminosity of about 2 X 10(exp 42) ergs / second for each burst. This bunching of emission is very similar to the behavior of SGR 1806-20 as detected with the Rossi X-ray Timing explorer in 1996. Overall, between May 26 and June 1, we have detected over 50 bursts from SGR 1900+4. The frequency and intensity of emissions are unlike any previously seen behavior from this source. Follow-up observations at infrared and radio wavelengths, while the source is still active are encouraged.

Hurley, K.↗

An Ab Initio Study of the Low-Lying Doublet States of AgO and AgS

Spectroscopic constants (D(sub o), r(sub e), mu(sub e), T(sub e)) are determined for the doublet states of AgO and AgS below approx. = 30000/cm. Large valence basis sets are employed in conjunction with relativistic effective core potentials (RECPs). Electron correlation is included using the modified coupled-pair functional (MCPF) and multireference configuration interaction (MRCI) methods. The A(sup 2)Sigma(sup +) - X(sup 2)Pi band system is found to occur in the near infrared (approx. = 9000/cm) and to be relatively weak with a radiative lifetime of 900 microns for A(sup 2)Sigma(sup +) (upsilon = 0). The weakly bound C(sup 2)Pi state (our notation), the upper state of the blue system, is found to require high levels of theoretical treatment to determine a quantitatively accurate potential. The red system is assigned as a transition from the C(sup 2)Pi state to the previously unobserved A(sup 2)Sigma(sup +) state. Several additional transitions are identified that should be detectable experimentally. A more limited study is performed for the vertical excitation spectrum of AgS. In addition, a detailed all-electron study of the X(sup 2)Pi and A(sup 2)Sigma(sup +) states of AgO is carried out using large atomic natural orbital (ANO) basis sets. Our best calculated D(sub o) value for AgO is significantly less than the experimental value, which suggests that there may be some systematic error in the experimental determination.

Bauschlicher, Charles W., Jr.↗

Boundary Conditions of the Heliosphere

We present new calculations of the ionization of the Local Interstellar Cloud (LIC) by directly observed sources including nearby stellar extreme ultraviolet (EUV) sources and the diffuse emission of the Soft X-ray Background (SXRB). In addition, we model the important, unobserved EUV emission both from the hot gas responsible for the SXRB and from a possible evaporative boundary between the LIC and the hot gas. We show that these ionization sources can provide the necessary ionization and heating of the cloud to match observations. Including the radiation from the conductive boundary, while not required, does improve the agreement with observations of the temperature of the LIC. The ionization predicted in our models shows good agreement with pickup ion results, interstellar absorption line data towards epsilon CMa, and EUV opacity measurements of nearby white dwarf stars. The areas of disagreement point to a possible underabundance (relative to solar abundance) of neon in the LIC. The presence of dust in the cloud, or at least depleted abundances, is necessary to maintain the heating/cooling balance and reach the observed temperature.

Slavin, Jonathan D.↗

Dynamics in Layer Models of Solid Flame Propagation

Self-propagating high-temperature synthesis (SHS) is a process in which combustion waves, e.g., "solid flames", which are considered here, are employed to synthesize desired materials. Like many other systems, SHS is a pattern forming system. The problem of describing experimentally observed patterns and of predicting new, as yet unobserved, patterns continues to attract the attention of scientists and mathematicians due to the fundamental significance of the phenomena in combustion in particular, and in nonlinear science in general. Here, we analyze the dynamics of solid flame propagation in a 2D region by considering the region to be composed of parallel, identical layers aligned along the direction of propagation and having thermal contact. Each layer is then described by wave propagation in 1D, with the transverse Laplacian replaced by a term describing heat exchange between neighboring layers. This configuration is the simplest model of a 2D system because it accounts, in a simple way, for the principal feature of the problem, i.e., heat exchange between neighbors in the transverse direction. For simplicity, we describe the situation for two layers. Because the layers are identical, uniformly propagating waves in each layer must be identical, independent of the heat exchange rate alpha. When the Zeldovich number Z exceeds a critical value Z(sub c), which depends on alpha, uniformly propagating waves become unstable. The stability diagram for the two coupled layers reproduces that for the full 2D problem after appropriate identification of parameters in the two problems. Depending on parameter values, we determine three different steady-state dynamical behaviors (though additional behaviors are also expected to occur). The three behaviors are: (i) waves in each layer which pulsate in phase as they propagate, so that together they form a single pulsating propagating wave; (ii) the waves in each layer are no longer identical, and antiphase pulsations occur, with the two waves alternately advancing and receding as they propagate. This wave is the analog of the spinning wave on the surface of a circular cylinder; (iii) finally, there is a region of bistability between the in phase and antiphase waves. with each having its own domain of attraction, so that which of the two behaviors occur depends on the condition of initiation of the wave. The results of our computations indicate a qualitative similarity in the behavior of combustion waves in the layer model and in the full 2D model. Specifically, due to the similarity between the small alpha wave behavior in the layer model and the large diameter behavior in the model of waves on the surface of a cylinder, we are able to predict the behavior of the mean velocity for the waves on the cylinder, where computations of the full problem can be rather difficult. We also compute solutions for three or more layers. The results of our computations prompt us to predict that, while planar uniformly propagating waves are unstable, the wave will be quasiplanar, i.e., the resulting spinning waves have very low amplitude hot spots, and travel with the velocity close to that of the uniformly propagating wave. Such waves may be difficult to distinguish from uniformly propagating waves in experiments. We also find that for both the layer model and full 2D problem, steady-state time-dependent waves, e.g., pulsating and spinning wave, have a conserved quantity H which characterizes the excess energy in the wave, just as in the case of uniformly propagating waves. The quantity H, which is generated by dissipation, does not vary in time and is proportional to the diffusivity and caloricity of the system, and inversely proportional to the mean wave velocity.

Aldushin, A. P.↗

Modelling of Trapped Radiation Near Jupiter

Energetic (62 to approx. 130 MeV) proton fluxes measured with the Galileo Probe inside Jupiter's main ring (radii 122,500 to 128,940 km) show a modest increase as Jupiter is approached. Solutions of a reduced (1-d) equatorial diffusion equation with-constant losses described by a lifetime tau match those data for tau greater than or equal to 10(exp 9) s for diffusion coefficient D(sub LL) = 10(exp -9) L(exp 4)/s, 10(exp -9) L(exp -3)/s, or 10(exp -10) L(exp 4)/s (this particle population may be undergoing nearly loss-free inward radial diffusion). Tau would increase as Jupiter is approached if its value were determined by pitch angle scattering due to EM wave-particle interactions. if the absolute amplitudes of the waves' magnetic fluctuations did not vary with radial distance. Exploration of numerical solutions of the diffusive transport equation for Jupiter's magnetospheric ions at die planetary ring and closer to Jupiter has been done. Explicit range-energy relationships for energy loss in ring matter (SiO2), modeled as a continuous disk, are incorporated. A spatial resolution of approx. 1000 km in the radial direction is used in the vicinity of the main ring; off-equatorial ion fluxes have been included (assuming the atmosphere is a perfect absorber). For protons the maximum effect of energy loss in the microscopic size range of ring particles is expected at energies approx. 0.1 Mev. Presumably there could be sufficiently large, unobserved bodies within the ring that would have to be modeled as discrete objects, as planetary satellites would be. Within limitations of the model and computational resources it's planned to characterize solutions for transport of magnetospheric ions past the planetary ring; the procedures that are used are fairly well known and may be applied generally to the simpler magnetospheric models.

Mihalov, John D.↗

The Disruption and Demise of Periodic Comet Shoemaker-Levy 9

The impact of the fragmented comet Shoemaker-Levy 9 (SL9) into Jupiter this July promises to change our understanding of the outer solar system. More than twenty mountain-sized conglomerates of ice and rock will hit the atmosphere at approx. 50 km/s over the course of a week beginning July 16, releasing approx. 10(exp 4) to 10(exp8) megatons of energy per burst, and providing unique and perhaps pivotal clues to the properties of comets and the physics of massive atmospheres. Because the fragments will strike the far side of Jupiter, data acquisition, analysis and interpretation will be quite sensitive to the actual size and energy of the fragments. We therefore examine an event which took place two summers ago, unnoticed and unobserved: the disruption of SL9 into a "string of pearls' as it passed within the Roche limit at perijove. We first demonstrate, on the basis of timescales of tidal interaction, that the comet could not have broken into 20+ fragments through a hierarchy of brittle fracture events. Next, noting that the tidal stress was too weak to have even fragmented an uncompressed mass of freshly fallen snow, we run models for a strengthless comet held together only by self-gravity. We explore the initial size, density, and rotation. We conclude that a 4 km diameter comet (smaller if a prograde rotator) of density approx. 0.5 g/cu cm disrupts and disperses into a chain of fragments similar to Shoemaker-Levy 9, whether we begin with 21, 85, 169, 700 or 2000 sub-grains. Gravitational reaccumulation is evidently the answer, and there is no need to invoke the presence of 21 "cometesimals" as the subscale of the comet. To explain how a comet can be weaker than uncompacted snow, we show that the ring-plane crossing prior to perijove could have caused total damage. Finally, we compute the tidal stress on impactors as they approach Jupiter this July. Objects of various density are moderately distorted but not disrupted by the time they strike the planet.

Asphaug, Erik↗

Organic Signature of Dust from the Interstellar Medium (ISM)

Dust in the ISM carries an "organic" signature in form of a distinct group of C-H stretching bands, both in emission and absorption, around 3.4 micrometers. These bands agree with the symmetrical and asymmetrical C-H stretching vibrations of aliphatic -CH2- entities and are thought to be associated with organic molecules on the surface of dust grains. We show that this interpretation is inconsistent with laboratory experiments. Synthetic MgO and natural olivine single crystals, grown from a CO/CO2/H2O-saturated melt, exhibit the same C-H stretching bands but those bands are clearly associated with C-H entities inside the dense mineral matrix. The multitude of C-H stretching bands suggests that the C-H bonds arise from polyatomic C(sub n) entities. We heated the MgO and olivine crystals to temperatures between 550-1000 K to pyrolyze the C-H bonds and to cause the C-H stretching bands to disappear. Upon annealing at moderate temperatures between 300-390 K the C-H stretching bands reappear within a few days to weeks. The C-H stretching band intensity increases linearly with the square root of time. Thus, while the pyrolysis broke the C-H bonds and caused the H to disperse in the mineral matrix, the H atoms (or H2 molecules) are sufficiently mobile to return during annealing and reestablish the C-H bonds. Dust grains that condense in a gas-laden environment (outflow of late-stage stars or in dense molecular clouds) probably incorporate the same type of Cn-H entities. Imbedded in and in part bonded to the surrounding mineral matrix, the Cn-H entities display C-H stretching bands in the 3.4 micrometer region, but their lower frequency librational modes are so strongly coupled to the lattice modes that they broaden excessively and thus become unobservable.

Freund, Friedemann↗

Solar UV Radiation and the Origin of Life on Earth

We have embarked on a program aimed at understanding the atmosphere of the early Earth, because of its importance as a greenhouse, radiation shield, and energy source for life. Here, we give a progress report on the first phase of this program: to establish the UV radiation from the early Sun. We are presently obtaining ultraviolet spectra (STIS, FUSE, EUVE) of carefully selected nearby, young solar-type stars, which act as surrogates for the early Sun. We are currently making detailed non-LTE analyses of the spectra and constructing models of their photospheres + chromospheres. once validated, these models will allow us to extrapolate our theoretical spectra to unobserved spectral regions, and to proceed to the next step: to develop photochemical models of the pre-biotic and Archean atmosphere of the Earth.

Heap, S. R.↗

Global Precipitation Measurement: Bridging from TRMM to GPM to 3-Hourly Precipitation Estimates - Report 7

Historically, multi-decadal measurements of precipitation from surface-based rain gauges have been available over continents. However oceans remained largely unobserved prior to the beginning of the satellite era. Only after the launch of the first Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) satellite in 1987 carrying a well-calibrated and multi-frequency passive microwave radiometer called Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) have systematic and accurate precipitation measurements over oceans become available on a regular basis; see Smith et al. (1994, 1998). Recognizing that satellite-based data are a foremost tool for measuring precipitation, NASA initiated a new research program to measure precipitation from space under its Mission to Planet Earth program in the 1990s. As a result, the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), a collaborative mission between NASA and NASDA, was launched in 1997 to measure tropical and subtropical rain. See Simpson et al. (1996) and Kummerow et al. (2000). Motivated by the success of TRMM, and recognizing the need for more comprehensive global precipitation measurements, NASA and NASDA have now planned a new mission, i.e., the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission. The primary goal of GPM is to extend TRMM's rainfall time series while making substantial improvements in precipitation observations, specifically in terms of measurement accuracy, sampling frequency, Earth coverage, and spatial resolution. This report addresses four fundamental questions related to the transition from current to future global precipitation observations as denoted by the TRMM and GPM eras, respectively.

Shepherd, J. Marshall↗

Making the Impossible Possible: Strategies for Fast POMDP Monitoring

Systems modeled as partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs) can be tracked quickly with three restrictions: all actions are grouped together, the out-degree of each system state is bounded by a constant, and the number of non-zero elements in the belief state is bounded by a (different) constant. With these restrictions, the tracking algorithm operates in constant time and linear space. The first restriction assumes that the action itself is unobservable. The second restriction defines a subclass of POMDPs that covers however a wide range of problems. The third restriction is an approximation technique that can lead to a potentially vexing problem: an observation may be received that has probability according to the restricted belief state. This problem of impossibility will cause the belief state to collapse. In this paper we discuss the tradeoffs between the constant bound on the belief state and the quality of the solution. We concentrate on strategies for overcoming the impossibility problem and demonstrate initial experimental results that indicate promising directions.

Washington, Richard↗