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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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DOE OSTI2021

A Hybrid Climate Modeling System Using AI-assisted Process Emulators

This white paper addresses Focus Area II. We advocate developing a hybrid modeling system to improve the understanding of decadal- and longer-scale predictability of high impact water cycle components. This hybrid model combines a partial differential equation (PDE)-based dynamic core with AI/ML based emulators to represent many of the computationally expensive processes in Earth’s climate models. The hybrid modeling system has the potential to exploit emerging graphics processing unit (GPU)-accelerated architectures and allows for the generation of large ensemble (~1000’s) simulations to better characterize the model uncertainty and understand predictability.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Event-scale predictions of water and nitrogen exports in coastal watersheds

Focal Area(s): The purpose of this white paper is to call for the improvement of the predictability and explainability of the magnitude and timing of water and nutrient exports in coastal watersheds. In this regard, hybrid machine learning approaches and process-based numerical models provide new opportunities to maximize predictability, emulate process-based model components, and explicitly address model uncertainty associated with event-scale predictions in coastal watersheds.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Final Report

Maps of the distribution of galaxies, or the cosmic {\em large-scale structure}, provide information about the past several billion years of cosmic history. These maps have the power to inform several of the largest scientific puzzles driving the Department of Energy's High Energy Physics program: the neutrino mass scale, properties of dark matter, the existence of new particles, and the mechanism responsible for cosmic acceleration. This research will develop the theory of structure formation in the presence of cosmic neutrinos and other novel types of matter. Without this research, the full power of cosmic-structure data will not be harnessed. The primary goal is to ensure that modeling uncertainties are not an obstacle to detecting the neutrino mass scale and other cosmological parameters with next-generation experiments. A secondary goal is to anticipate the possibility of new physics by developing the astrophysical phenomenology of novel dark-matter and cosmic-acceleration scenarios. This research will produce new tools to study neutrinos, hidden components of dark matter, dynamical dark energy, and structure formation in the Universe.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Cloud and Precipitation Experiment at Kennaook (Cape-K) Science Plan

The Cloud and Precipitation Experiment at Kennaook (CAPE-K) will augment ongoing measurements at the Kennaook/Cape Grim Baseline Air Pollution Station (KCG) with components of the U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility’s second Mobile Facility (AMF2) in a deployment that is scheduled to extend from April 2024 through September 2025. Located at Kennaook/Cape Grim on the northwestern tip of Tasmania (40.68° S, 144.69° E), KCG has produced the longest and most consequential record of Southern Hemisphere aerosol and gas-phase chemistry; however, extensive cloud and precipitation measurements have not been collected at this site. CAPE-K is motivated by the fact that model uncertainty in the surface radiation budget due to clouds and precipitation remain significant in this region, where strong latitudinal gradients in cloud feedbacks are found and there are strong and well-documented seasonal variations in marine aerosol properties. Satellite data suggest that cloud properties co-vary with the seasonal cycle in aerosol in the Southern Ocean (SO), yet detailed vertically resolved measurements of cloud and precipitation in the marine boundary layer are sparse. CAPE-K will provide the first such seasonal cycle of measurements in this important latitude band. CAPE-K will provide detailed cloud and precipitation observations over two winter seasons and align with complementary high-value-add activities planned by Australian colleagues, including a voyage of the Research Vessel Investigator (RVI) in May 2025 that will conduct measurements just offshore of KCG.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Building Intelligence with Layered Defense Using Security-Constrained Optimization and Security Risk Detection (BUILD-SOS): A Probabilistic Approach

In this project, we employ a layered protection strategy incorporating advanced optimization and detection techniques using a probabilistic approach. The probabilistic approach is not only applied when detecting cyber attacks, but also incorporated in control strategies, which greatly increases the attacking difficulties. Hackers need to understand both probabilistic detection algorithms and uncertainty modeling methods in control in order to execute any effective attacks. The end-to-end solutions enable us to provide Building Intelligence with Layered Defense using Security-Constrained Optimization and Security Risk Detection (BUILD-SOS).

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2024

Event Location using Arrival Times from Seismic and Acoustic Phenomena

Accurately locating seismoacoustic sources with geophysical observations helps to monitor natural and anthropogenic phenomena. Sparsely deployed infrasound arrays can readily locate large sources thousands of kms away, but small events typically produce signals observable at only local to regional distances. At such distances, accurate location efforts rely on observations across smaller regional or temporary deployments which often consist of single-channel infrasound sensors that cannot record direction of arrival. Event locations can also be aided by inclusion of ground coupled airwaves (GCA). This study demonstrates how we can robustly locate a catalog of seismoacoustic events using infrasound, GCA, and seismic arrival times at local to near-regional distances. We employ a probabilistic location framework using simplified forward models. Our results indicate that both single-channel infrasound and GCA arrival times can provide accurate estimates of event location in the absence of array-based observations even when using simple models. However, one must carefully choose model uncertainty bounds to avoid underestimation of confidence intervals.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Designing Operationally Flexible Diafiltration Membrane Systems for Critical Mineral Separations

This talk presents the design of operationally flexible diafiltration membrane systems for Li/Co recovery, and applies robust optimization methodologies using these flexible systems to generate optimal designs immune to membrane manufacturing variability and uncertain process inlet conditions. The results highlight the use of robust optimization to find design strategies and insights that may reduce technical risks arising from model uncertainties.

Yao, Jason↗

DOE OSTI2024

Treatment and Mineral Recovery from Combustion Residual Leachate and Produced Water

Able, Chad↗

DOE OSTI2025

Coupling RELAP5-3D to BISON

This report details two approaches for coupling the BISON nuclear fuel performance code with RELAP5-3D. Both approaches are shown to work well. The first is a Python-based approach, and the second combines the two applications into one executable with data passed in memory from one library to the other. This second coupling approach forms the basis for analysis of complex loss of coolant scenarios and enables future calculations of modeling uncertainties.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Simulation of Deuterium Oxidation in a Room with a Fire

A series of experiments where deuterium was released in trace amounts into a room with a fire were performed at Sandia National Laboratories. This report describes the corresponding effort to model the test series using SIERRA/FUEGO. The objective of this modeling effort was to produce a simulation test matrix that can be utilized to help interpret the corresponding experiments and be used to assess the credibility of using the SIERRA/FUEGO simulations as a surrogate for real tritium reaction data for mock fire and release studies. The simulations assessed multiple configurations of fire size and location and overall found that there was low conversion of deuterium to oxidized deuterium. There are some notable differences between the simulation predictions and the experimental results, such as the simulations generally predicting higher amounts of deuterium conversion compared to the experiment. A strategy to address modeling uncertainties and unknowns is also given in this report.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Fast and Thermal Neutron Spectrum Dosimetry Measurements in the Advanced Test Reactor large-B and small-I Positions Following the Sixth Core Internals Change-out [Slides]

The Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) has a wide variety of irradiation positions that have had experiments that were developed by users from around the world. Most experiment irradiations rely on thoroughly benchmarked numerical models. However, some irradiation positions in ATR are not as well- characterized and are complicated by spectral perturbations from control cylinder orientation. The “small I” and “large-B” irradiation positions are located nearby control cylinders and suffer from these flux perturbations from control cylinder orientations that change during an irradiation cycle to maintain the desired core power distribution. Models predicted that these types of position would exhibit both spectral shifts and amplitude changes in neutron flux, but few measurements have been conducted to benchmark these predictions. Recently, requalification testing was performed to confirm the operational readiness of the ATR following the completion of the Core Internals Change-out (CIC). These tests provided a unique opportunity to validate the analytical methods used to simulate the ATR because nearly all components in the reactor were in a clean as-built state, significantly reducing modelling uncertainties. One subset of the testing included characterization of the fast and thermal neutron flux in the “small-I” and “large-B” positions using silver, cobalt, and nickel neutron dosimetry. In contrast to typical irradiation cycles, the control cylinders were held in position during the post-CIC nuclear testing. The specific activity of these dosimeter wires was measured following two low-power tests with different control cylinder positions.

21 - SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLAN↗

DOE OSTI2026

Improved Muon Energy Estimation Using a Detailed Model of Multiple Coulomb Scattering in the MicroBooNE LArTPC

We present an improved technique for estimating a muon's energy by measuring the deflections along its path inside the MicroBooNE detector from multiple Coulomb scattering (MCS). This approach implements several innovations that better capture detector non-idealizations compared to previous MCS-based muon energy estimators. As a result, it achieves improved resolution, reduced bias, and better data-model agreement. Using model simulation, for fully contained events the estimated bias is within 1\% and the estimated resolution narrows from 10\% to 4.3\% as muon energy increases from 0.1\,GeV to 2\,GeV. For events with particles exiting the detector volume, at least a meter of reconstructed muon track, and a muon energy below 2\,GeV, the estimated bias is less than 2\% and the estimated resolution varies from 7\% to 17\% over muon energy. These demonstrate significant improvements over the performance of previous work using an MCS-based energy estimator at MicroBooNE~\cite{mcs_2017}, which exhibited approximately twice worse resolution and a bias of 20\% over the same energy region. Data-model goodness-of-fit studies are used to validate the estimator's performance on data, showing good agreement within model uncertainties.

Cooper-Troendle, London [U. Pittsburgh (main); Fer↗

DOE OSTI2025

Nuclear Matrix Elements for Neutrinoless Double-Beta Decay

Neutrinoless double-beta decay ($0\nu\beta\beta$) is a rare hypothesised process that, if discovered, would establish that the neutrino is Majorana, that is, it is its own antiparticle. Interpretation of experimental results relies on knowledge of nuclear matrix elements, whose large model uncertainty is the limiting factor in comparing measured (bounds on) half-lives to the neutrino mass. Nuclear effective field theory and lattice QCD have the potential to compute these matrix elements with better control over uncertainties, enhancing the discovery potential of next-generation $0\nu\beta\beta$ experiments. This work will survey various lattice QCD double-beta decay calculations and discuss their implications.

Grebe, Anthony V. [Fermilab] (ORCID:00000003103201↗

DOE OSTI2022

Robust Scheduling of Networked Microgrids for Economics and Resilience Improvement

The benefits of networked microgrids in terms of economics and resilience are investigated and validated in this work. Considering the stochastic unintentional islanding conditions and conventional forecast errors of both renewable generation and loads, a two-stage adaptive robust optimization is proposed to minimize the total operating cost of networked microgrids in the worst scenario of the modeled uncertainties. By coordinating the dispatch of distributed energy resources (DERs) and responsive demand among networked microgrids, the total operating cost is minimized, which includes the start-up and shut-down cost of distributed generators (DGs), the operation and maintenance (O&M) cost of DGs, the cost of buying/selling power from/to the utility grid, the degradation cost of energy storage systems (ESSs), and the cost associated with load shedding. The proposed optimization is solved with the column and constraint generation (C&CG) algorithm. The results of case studies demonstrate the advantages of networked microgrids over independent microgrids in terms of reducing total operating cost and improving the resilience of power supply.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Renewable Energy Resources in Western North America

We examine a 25 km resolution climate model dataset to evaluate how regional climate change impacts solar and wind energy under a high-emission scenario. Our study considers the Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC) region, which covers the western United States and southwestern Canada, focusing specifically on locations with existing solar and wind infrastructure. First, we conduct a historical model comparison of solar and wind energy capacity factors to highlight model uncertainties across the study area. Using future climate projections, we then assess the seasonal patterns of solar and wind capacity factors for three timeframes: historical, mid-century, and end of century. Additionally, we estimate the frequency of solar and wind resource droughts during these periods for the entire WECC and its five operational subregions, finding that certain subregions are more susceptible to energy droughts due to limited renewable resources. Finally, we present day-ahead capacity factor forecasts to support energy storage planning and provide estimates of offshore wind energy capacity within the WECC. Our results indicate that offshore wind capacity factors are nearly twice as high as onshore values, with less seasonal variation, which suggests that offshore wind could offer a more consistent renewable energy supply in the future.

climate change↗

DOE OSTI2021

The Challenges Ahead for Multimessenger Analyses of Gravitational Waves and Kilonova: A Case Study on GW190425

In recent years, there have been significant advances in multimessenger astronomy due to the discovery of the first, and so far only confirmed, gravitational wave event with a simultaneous electromagnetic (EM) counterpart, as well as improvements in numerical simulations, gravitational wave (GW) detectors, and transient astronomy. This has led to the exciting possibility of performing joint analyses of the GW and EM data, providing additional constraints on fundamental properties of the binary progenitor and merger remnant. Here, in this work, we present a new Bayesian framework that allows inference of these properties, while taking into account the systematic modeling uncertainties that arise when mapping from GW binary progenitor properties to photometric light curves. We extend the relative binning method presented in Zackay et al. to include extrinsic GW parameters for fast analysis of the GW signal. The focus of our EM framework is on light curves arising from r-process nucleosynthesis in the ejected material during and after merger, the so-called kilonova, and particularly on black hole–neutron star systems. As a case study, we examine the recent detection of GW190425, where the primary object is consistent with being either a black hole or a neutron star. We show quantitatively how improved mapping between binary progenitor and outflow properties, and/or an increase in EM data quantity and quality are required in order to break degeneracies in the fundamental source parameters.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Detection of Cosmological 21 cm Emission with the Canadian Hydrogen Intensity Mapping Experiment

We present a detection of 21 cm emission from large-scale structure (LSS) between redshift 0.78 and 1.43 made with the Canadian Hydrogen Intensity Mapping Experiment. Radio observations acquired over 102 nights are used to construct maps that are foreground filtered and stacked on the angular and spectral locations of luminous red galaxies (LRGs), emission-line galaxies (ELGs), and quasars (QSOs) from the eBOSS clustering catalogs. We find decisive evidence for a detection when stacking on all three tracers of LSS, with the logarithm of the Bayes factor equal to 18.9 (LRG), 10.8 (ELG), and 56.3 (QSO). An alternative frequentist interpretation, based on the likelihood ratio test, yields a detection significance of 7.1σ (LRG), 5.7σ (ELG), and 11.1σ (QSO). These are the first 21 cm intensity mapping measurements made with an interferometer. We constrain the effective clustering amplitude of neutral hydrogen (H I ), defined as ${{ \mathcal A }}_{{\rm{H}}\,{\rm\small{I}}}\equiv {10}^{3}\,{{\rm{\Omega }}}_{{\rm{H}}\,{\rm\small{I}}}\left({b}_{{\rm{H}}\,{\rm\small{I}}}+\langle \,f{\mu }^{2}\rangle \right)$, where Ω H I is the cosmic abundance of H I , b H I is the linear bias of H I , and $\langle$fμ 2 $\rangle$ = 0.552 encodes the effect of redshift-space distortions at linear order. We find ${{ \mathcal A }}_{{\rm{H}}\,{\rm\small{I}}}={1.51}_{-0.97}^{+3.60}$ for LRGs (z = 0.84), ${{ \mathcal A }}_{{\rm{H}}\,{\rm\small{I}}}={6.76}_{-3.79}^{+9.04}$ for ELGs (z = 0.96), and ${{ \mathcal A }}_{{\rm{H}}\,{\rm\small{I}}}={1.68}_{-0.67}^{+1.10}$ for QSOs (z = 1.20), with constraints limited by modeling uncertainties at nonlinear scales. We are also sensitive to bias in the spectroscopic redshifts of each tracer, and we find a nonzero bias Δ v = - 66 ± 20 km s -1 for the QSOs. We split the QSO catalog into three redshift bins and have a decisive detection in each, with the upper bin at z = 1.30 producing the highest-redshift 21 cm intensity mapping measurement thus far.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Analysis of Polarized Dust Emission Using Data from the First Flight of SPIDER

Using data from the first flight of Spider and from the Planck High Frequency Instrument, we probe the properties of polarized emission from interstellar dust in the Spider observing region. Component-separation algorithms operating in both the spatial and harmonic domains are applied to probe their consistency and to quantify modeling errors associated with their assumptions. Analyses of diffuse Galactic dust emission spanning the full Spider region demonstrate (i) a spectral energy distribution that is broadly consistent with a modified-blackbody (MBB) model with a spectral index of β d = 1.45 ± 0.05 (1.47 ± 0.06) for E (B)-mode polarization, slightly lower than that reported by Planck for the full sky; (ii) an angular power spectrum broadly consistent with a power law; and (iii) no significant detection of line-of-sight polarization decorrelation. Tests of several modeling uncertainties find only a modest impact (~10% in σ r ) on Spider's sensitivity to the cosmological tensor-to-scalar ratio. The size of the Spider region further allows for a statistically meaningful analysis of the variation in foreground properties within it. Assuming a fixed dust temperature T d = 19.6 K, an analysis of two independent subregions of that field results in inferred values of β d = 1.52 ± 0.06 and β d = 1.09 ± 0.09, which are inconsistent at the 3.9σ level. Furthermore, a joint analysis of Spider and Planck 217 and 353 GHz data within one subregion is inconsistent with a simple MBB at more than 3σ, assuming a common morphology of polarized dust emission over the full range of frequencies. This evidence of variation may inform the component-separation approaches of future cosmic microwave background polarization experiments.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗