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NASA NTRS2014

Implications of Arctic Sea Ice Decline for the Earth System

Arctic sea ice decline has led to an amplification of surface warming and is projected to continue to decline from anthropogenic forcing, although the exact timing of ice-free summers is uncertain owing to large natural variability. Sea ice reductions affect surface heating patterns and the atmospheric pressure distribution, which may alter midlatitude extreme weather patterns. Increased light penetration and nutrient availability during spring from earlier ice breakup enhances primary production in the Arctic Ocean and its adjacent shelf seas. Ice-obligate marine mammals may be losers, whereas seasonally migrant species may be winners from rapid sea ice decline. Tundra greening is occurring across most of the Arctic, driven primarily by warming temperatures, and is displaying complex spatial patterns that are likely tied to other factors. Sea ice changes are affecting greenhouse gas exchanges as well as halogen chemistry in the Arctic. This review highlights the heterogeneous nature of Arctic change, which is vital for researchers to better understand.

Decline↗

NASA NTRS1988

Disruption of giant comets in the solar system and around other stars

In a standard cometary mass distribution (dN/dM) alpha M(-a), a = 1.5 to 2.0) most of the mass resides in the largest comets. The maximum mass M sub max for which this distribution holds uncertain but there are theoretical and observational indications that M sub max is at least approx. 10(23)g. Chiron, although formally classified as an asteroid, is most likely a giant comet in this mass range. Its present orbit is unstable and it is expected to evolve into a more typical short period comet orbit on a timescale of approx. 10(6) to 10(7)yr. The breakup of a chiron-like comet of mass approx. 10(23)g could in principle produce approx. 10(5) Halley-size comets, or a distribution with an even larger number. If a giant comet was in a typical short period comet orbit, such a breakup could result in a relatively brief comet shower (duration approx. less than 10(6)yr) with some associated terrestrial impacts. However, the most significant climatic effects may not in general be due to the impacts themselves but to the greatly enhanced zodiacal dust cloud in the inner Solar System. (Although this is probably not the case for the unique K-T impact). Researchers used a least Chi square program with error analysis to confirm that the 2 to 5 micrometer excess spectrum of Giclas 29 to 38 can be adequately fitted with either a disk of small inefficient (or efficient) grains or a single temperature black body. Further monitoring of this star may allow discrimination between these two models.

Whitmire, D. P.↗

NASA NTRS1982

Increased atmospheric carbon dioxide and climate feedback mechanisms

As a consequence of fossil fuel burning, the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide has increased from 314 ppm in 1958, when detailed measurements of this quantity began, to a present value of 335 ppm; and it is estimated that during the next century, the CO2 concentration will double relative to its assumed preindustrial value of 290 ppm. Since CO2 is an infrared-active gas, increases in its atmospheric concentration would lead to a larger infrared opacity for the atmospheric which, by normal logic, would result in a warmer Earth. A number of modeling endeavors suggest a 2 to 4 C increase in global mean surface temperature with doubling of the CO2 concentration. But such estimates of CO2-induced warming are highly uncertain because of a lack of knowledge of climate feedback mechanisms. Interactive influences upon the solar and infrared opacities of the Earth-atmosphere system can either amplify or damp a climate-forcing mechanism such as increasing CO2. Climate feedback mechanisms discussed include climate sensitivity, cloudiness-radiation feedback, climate change predictions, and interactive atmospheric chemistry.

Cess, R. D.↗

NASA NTRS1988

Diagnosing faults in autonomous robot plan execution

A major requirement for an autonomous robot is the capability to diagnose faults during plan execution in an uncertain environment. Many diagnostic researches concentrate only on hardware failures within an autonomous robot. Taking a different approach, the implementation of a Telerobot Diagnostic System that addresses, in addition to the hardware failures, failures caused by unexpected event changes in the environment or failures due to plan errors, is described. One feature of the system is the utilization of task-plan knowledge and context information to deduce fault symptoms. This forward deduction provides valuable information on past activities and the current expectations of a robotic event, both of which can guide the plan-execution inference process. The inference process adopts a model-based technique to recreate the plan-execution process and to confirm fault-source hypotheses. This technique allows the system to diagnose multiple faults due to either unexpected plan failures or hardware errors. This research initiates a major effort to investigate relationships between hardware faults and plan errors, relationships which were not addressed in the past. The results of this research will provide a clear understanding of how to generate a better task planner for an autonomous robot and how to recover the robot from faults in a critical environment.

Lam, Raymond K.↗

NASA NTRS1989

Diagnosing faults in autonomous robot plan execution

Lam, Raymond K.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Salty Bennu: Halite and Sylvite in Fines Returned by OSIRIS-REx

Salt phases such as halite (NaCl) and sylvite (KCl) are important hosts of halogens (e.g., Br and I) and volatile alkali metals (i.e., Na, K) and are very rare in extra-terrestrial materials. Halite and sylvite have been discovered in carbonaceous chondrite clasts in ordinary chondrite meteorite falls Zag H3-6 regolith breccia (Zag), Monahans (1998) breccia (Monahans), and Sidi El Habib H5 chondrite, as well as on the surface of particles from asteroid Itokawa. Yet, it is uncertain whether the evaporites are indigenous or exogenous to their respective parent bodies, and their origin is debated. Analysis of the extinct 129I/129Xe decay system and 40Ar/39Ar show that halite in Zag may have formed within the first 8 Myr of the solar system, possibly from aqueous fluids during local and episodic low-temperature alteration on the parent body. Halite and sylvite in Zag are characterized by light δ37Cl values of −1.7 ‰. Halite in Zag could have been transported from the outer solar system, perhaps a P- or D-class asteroid, as indicated by O, H, N, and C isotopes. An alternative is a cometary or interstellar ice origin due to their deuterium-rich and 16O-poor composition.

N E Timms↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Verification and Validation of Safety-Critical Aircraft Systems Operating under Off-Nominal, Contingency, and Emergency Conditions

Verification and validation (V&V) of safety-critical technologies developed for loss of control (LOC) prevention and recovery and other aviation safety concerns pose significant challenges. Aircraft LOC can result from a wide spectrum of hazards, often occurring in combination, which cannot be fully replicated during evaluation. Technologies developed for LOC prevention and recovery must therefore be effective under a wide variety of hazardous and uncertain conditions, and the verification and validation of these technologies must provide some measure of assurance that the new vehicle safety technologies do no harm (i.e., that they themselves do not introduce new safety risks). V&V technologies must also enable the identification of system limitations and constraints, as well as enable the identification of safe and unsafe operating conditions (and their boundaries). Additionally, the V&V of complex, increasingly autonomous systems is a fundamental concern. Scalable, reproducible and cost-effective techniques for the assurance of safety critical systems during their design and operation is a key barrier to fielding new systems or updating current systems. Moreover, these techniques need to provide artifacts that enable a comprehensive evidence-based approach to certification. This briefing summarizes research performed under NASA’s Aviation Safety Program and follow-on research for the V&V of safety-critical aircraft system technologies developed for LOC prevention and recovery and increasingly autonomous systems, and for a broad assurance capability in both current and emerging aviation applications. Note that, in this briefing, the term “validation” refers to a confirmation that the system implementation (e.g., algorithms etc.) is performing the intended function(s), as well as an affirmation of effectiveness in these functions. “Verification” refers to a confirmation that the system implementation in the software and hardware meets its (hopefully validated) specifications (e.g., correctly executes algorithms as designed).

Validation↗

NASA NTRS2004

A Real-Time Satellite-Based Icing Detection System

Aircraft icing is one of the most dangerous weather conditions for general aviation. Currently, model forecasts and pilot reports (PIREPS) constitute much of the database available to pilots for assessing the icing conditions in a particular area. Such data are often uncertain or sparsely available. Improvements in the temporal and areal coverage of icing diagnoses and prognoses would mark a substantial enhancement of aircraft safety in regions susceptible to heavy supercooled liquid water clouds. The use of 3.9 microns data from meteorological satellite imagers for diagnosing icing conditions has long been recognized (e.g., Ellrod and Nelson, 1996) but to date, no explicit physically based methods have been implemented. Recent advances in cloud detection and cloud property retrievals using operational satellite imagery open the door for real-time objective applications of those satellite datasets for a variety of weather phenomena. Because aircraft icing is related to cloud macro- and microphysical properties (e.g., Cober et al. 1995), it is logical that the cloud properties from satellite data would be useful for diagnosing icing conditions. This paper describes the a prototype realtime system for detecting aircraft icing from space.

Minnis, Patrick↗

NASA NTRS2004

How Systems Engineering and Risk Management Defend Against Murphy's Law and Human Error

Systems Engineering and Risk Management processes can work synergistically to defend against the causes of many mission ending failures. Defending against mission ending failures is facilitated by fostering a team that has a healthy respect for Murphy's Law and a team with a of curiosity for how things work, how they can fail, and what they need to know. This curiosity is channeled into making the unknowns known or what is uncertain more certain. Efforts to assure mission success require the expenditure of energy in the following areas: 1. Understanding what defines Mission Success as guided by the customer's needs, objectives and constraints. 2. Understanding how the system is supposed to work and how the system is to be produced, fueled by the curiosity of how the system should work and how it should be produced. 3. Understanding how the system can fail and how the system might not be produced on time and within cost, fueled by the curiosity of how the system might fail and how production might be difficult. 4. Understanding what we need to know and what we need learn for proper completion of the above three items, fueled by the curiosity of what we might not know in order to make the best decisions.

Bay, Michael↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Visioning a Global Carbon Monitoring System That Can Quantify and Attribute Ocean Carbon Dioxide Removal: Where Are We Now and How Might We Get There?

As atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations and the resulting social costs rise, it is increasingly important to conduct research on technical approaches to remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere at the gigaton scale. One highly uncertain but perhaps plausible solution is ocean carbon dioxide (CO2) removal (CDR), which encompasses a suite of proposed techniques for increasing the net flux of CO2 from the atmosphere to the ocean. As reflected in a 2022 National Academy of Sciences report, interest in ocean CDR is rapidly growing, and new stakeholders from a wide range of fields want access to air-sea CO2 flux and ocean carbon information to understand the potential risks and benefits of ocean CDR. Moreover, there is an urgent need for research to develop a scientific basis to support these societal needs. At the same time, there is a growing need to vision a global carbon monitoring system that can quantify natural and anthropogenic perturbations in the air-sea CO2 flux to quantify and attribute the impacts of ocean CDR efforts on the ocean carbon sink. Here, we propose to present nascent efforts at the Ames Research Center to leverage NASA's unique remote sensing and computational capabilities and expertise in basic and applied Earth science to meet the needs of the ocean CDR stakeholder community as represented by the OceanVisions network. Specifically we aim to develop a global ocean CDR scenario explorer with two objectives: 1) to make quantitative estimates of the air-sea CO2 flux and its uncertainty more accessible to a wide range of users, and 2) to enable these diverse users to interactively explore the uncertain impacts on air-sea CO2 fluxes in a wide range of ocean CDR scenarios. The information would be provided to users via a public graphical user interface, and the results would be based on a new synthesis of scientific observations and knowledge in a global ocean mixed layer inverse model run on supercomputers. The proposed tool aims to fill a unique and valuable niche for users and the scientific community by balancing tradeoffs between user interests, scientific knowledge, and technical capabilities. We will conclude by visioning the potential implications for a global carbon monitoring system in a world with gigaton scale ocean CDR.

Global↗

NASA NTRS2003

The Galileo Probe: How it Has Changed Our Understanding of Jupiter

The Galileo Mission to Jupiter, which arrived in December of 1995, provided the first study by an orbiter, and the first in-situ sampling via an entry probe, of an outer planet atmosphere. The rationale for an entry probe is that, even from an orbiter, remote sensing of the jovian atmosphere could not adequately retrieve the information desired. This paper provides a current summary of the most significant aspects of the data returned from the Galileo entry probe. As a result of the probe measurements, there has been a reassessment of our understanding of outer planet formation and evolution of the solar system. The primary scientific objective of the Galileo probe was to determine the composition of the jovian atmosphere, which from remote sensing remained either very uncertain, or completely unknown, with respect to several key elements. The probe found that the global He mass fraction is. significantly above the value reported from the Voyager Jupiter flybys but is slightly below the protosolar value, implying that there has been some settling of He to the deep jovian interior. The probe He measurements have also led to a reevaluation of the Voyager He mass fraction for Saturn, which is now determined to be much closer to that of Jupiter. The elements C, N, S, Ar, Kr, Xe were all found to have global abundances approximately 3 times their respective solar abundances. This result has raised a number of fundamental issues with regard to properties of planetesimals and the solar nebula at the time of giant planet formation. Ne, on the other hand, was found to be highly depleted, probably as the result of it being carried along with helium as helium settles towards the deep interior. The global abundance of O was not obtained by the probe because of the influence of local processes at the probe entry site (PES), processes which depleted condensible species, in this case H2O, well below condensation levels. Other condensible species, namely NH3 and H2S, were similarly affected but attained their deep equilibrium mixing ratios before the maximum depth sampled by the probe. Processes that might be capable of producing such effects on the condensibles are still under investigation. Measured isotopic ratios of noble gases and other heavy elements are solar, and (D + (Sup 3)He)/H is the same to within measurement uncertainties as in the local interstellar medium. No thick clouds were detected, and in particular no significant water cloud, but the PES location clearly affected the probe measurements of clouds. In fact, the probe data must be understood in the context of the location of the PES, which was within what is termed a 5 micron hot spot, a local clearing in the clouds that is bright near the 5 microns spectral region. The thermal structure at the PES was determined from approximately 1000 km above the 1 bar pressure level (10(exp -9 bars)) to 132 km 1 bar (22bars). The probe showed the atmosphere to have a generally sub-adiabatic temperature gradient (static stability) of = 0.1 K/km to as deep as the probe made measurements. In the upper atmosphere the probe derived a maximum positive vertical temperature gradient of approximately 5 K/km, and maximum temperature of = 900 K. The energy sources producing the warm upper atmosphere have yet to be completely identified. At first glance, Doppler tracking of the probe indicates that the long observed cloud level zonal winds extend to levels at least as deep as the probe made measurements. Zonal wind increases from = 80 m/s at pressures less than a bar to about 180 m/s near 5 bars, and remains approximately constant with depth thereafter. However, there is a question as to whether the winds measured from probe tracking are representative of the general wind field, or are considerably influenced by localized winds associated with the PES.

Young, Richard E.↗

NASA NTRS2002

A quantitative risk model for early lifecycle decision making

Decisions made in the earliest phases of system development have the most leverage to influence the success of the entire development effort, and yet must be made when information is incomplete and uncertain. We have developed a scalable cost-benefit model to support this critical phase of early-lifecycle decision-making.

requirements optimization summarization tradeoffs↗

NASA NTRS2020

Ag isotopic and chalcophile element evolution of the terrestrial and martian mantles during accretion: new constraints from Bi, Pd, and Ag metal-silicate partitioning.

The Earth’s timing of accretion and acquisition of moderately volatile compounds is uncertain. Hafnium-W and Mn-Cr isotopic data can bracket the timing of early planetary differentiation and core formation. The Ag-Pd system has also been utilized but its application has been limited by a lack of high pressure and temperature metal-silicate partitioning for Pd and Ag. Be-cause Ag (and Bi) are volatile chalcophile siderophile elements, understanding their early distribution can constrain the origin of volatile elements in differentiated bodies and planets. Unfortunately, neither Ag or Bi have been studied across the wide range of pressure and temperature conditions that are relevant to accretion and core-mantle differentiation. Here, new high-pressure and temperature multi-anvil metal-silicate equilibrium experiments for Bi and Ag have been carried out at conditions relevant to planetary accretion and metal silicate differentiation that allow a more refined and complete understanding of element partitioning during core formation. The new metal-silicate partitioning data utilized to predict the distributions of Bi, Pd, and Ag at conditions of accretion for Earth and Mars and show that the Pd/Ag ratio is significantly fractionated during accretion, allowing for the production of detectable 107Ag anomalies produced while 107Pd (half life = 6.5 M.y.) was still extant. Application of the new partitioning results to Earth shows that D(Bi) and D(Ag) (D = metal/silicate concentration ratio) are lowered due to the effect of pressure and Si alloyed in the metallic liquid, resulting in higher predicted mantle Bi and Ag abundances than in the bulk silicate Earth (BSE), as well as high and variable Pd/Ag. The unradiogenic Ag isotopic composition of the BSE could have been generated by early accretion of volatile-poor (high Pd/Ag) precursors, followed by later accretion of volatile–rich (low Pd/Ag) material, in agreement with earlier studies of Pd-Ag and Mn-Cr (Schönbächler et al., 2010). However, these main accretion phases would have to be followed by segregation of a sulfide liquid (at least 1.5% of magma ocean) at high pressures (>30 GPa), to explain the PUM Bi, Pd, and Ag, as well as Au, Pt, Cu and Ni concentrations as proposed previously. If the early accreted bulk Earth was volatile depleted with high Pd/Ag ratios, portions of the mantle may contain ancient domains that developed positive 107Ag isotopic anomalies (as also argued by noble gases, Nd, W, and Os isotopes). In comparison, Bi, Pd, and Ag concentrations in the martian mantle could have been set by simple metal-silicate equilibrium. Mars accreted and differentiated relatively rapidly, while also developing a deep magma ocean with a high Pd/Ag ratio that could have evolved positive 107Ag anomalies, in contrast to Earth. Measurements on shergottites may reveal these predicted Ag isotopic anomalies.

accretion↗

NASA NTRS2022

GBaTSv2: a revised synthesis of the likely basal thermal state of the Greenland Ice Sheet

The basal thermal state (frozen or thawed) of the Greenland Ice Sheet is under-constrained due to few direct measurements, yet knowledge of this state is becoming increasingly important to interpret modern changes in ice flow. The first synthesis of this state relied on inferences from widespread airborne and satellite observations and numerical models, for which most of the underlying datasets have since been updated. Further, new and independent constraints on the basal thermal state have been developed from analysis of basal and englacial reflections observed by airborne radar sounding. Here we synthesize constraints on the Greenland Ice Sheet's basal thermal state from boreholes, thermomechanical ice-flow models that participated in the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6), IceBridge BedMachine Greenland v4 bed topography, Making Earth Science Data Records for Use in Research Environments (MEaSUREs) Multi-Year Greenland Ice Sheet Velocity Mosaic v1 and multiple inferences of a thawed bed from airborne radar sounding. Most constraints can only identify where the bed is likely thawed rather than where it is frozen. This revised synthesis of the Greenland likely Basal Thermal State version 2 (GBaTSv2) indicates that 33 % of the ice sheet's bed is likely thawed, 40 % is likely frozen and the remainder (28 %) is too uncertain to specify. The spatial pattern of GBaTSv2 is broadly similar to the previous synthesis, including a scalloped frozen core and thawed outlet-glacier systems. Although the likely basal thermal state of nearly half (46 %) of the ice sheet changed designation, the assigned state changed from likely frozen to likely thawed (or vice versa) for less than 6 % of the ice sheet. This revised synthesis suggests that more of northern Greenland is likely thawed at its bed and conversely that more of southern Greenland is likely frozen, both of which influence interpretation of the ice sheet's present subglacial hydrology and models of its future evolution. The GBaTSv2 dataset, including both code that performed the analysis and the resulting datasets, is freely available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6759384 (MacGregor, 2022).

Joseph A. MacGregor↗

NASA NTRS2018

Impact Study of the Assimilation of Surface Sensitive Microwave Radiances in the GEOS

The aim of this study is to investigate the feasibility of assimilating low frequency microwave observations from different satellite Microwave radiometers such as the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit-A (AMSU-A). These observations are relevant to the description of air temperature, humidity, and surface parameters such as ocean surface temperature. Their assimilation into Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) modeling and assimilation system helps better constrain models in regions where very few observations are assimilated. In recent years, Channels 1â€“4 and 15 have not been assimilated in GEOS because of their large sensitivities to uncertain surface parameters such as emissivity and skin temperature. Here, the impact of using different channels will be discussed. Also we investigate the validity of the emissivity model in these channels over ocean and sea ice.Radiative transfer calculations necessary for the assimilation of satellite radiances are performed using the Community Radiative Transfer Model (CRTM). The CRTM performs forward radiative transfer calculations of brightness temperature from atmospheric profiles (temperature, moisture, and ozone) and surface characteristics. Additionally, the CRTM calculates the Jacobians of brightness temperature with respect to the input . The Jacobians are for the inversion of these radiances within the Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) analysis system. Here, For direct assimilation of the radiance observations, the interface between GSI and CRTM, is slightly modified. Finally, we validate the assimilation results, and discuss the impact of each channels in detail.

Ebrahimi, Hamideh↗

NASA NTRS2014

Improving FermiI Orbit Determination and Prediction in an Uncertain Atmospheric Drag Environment

Orbit determination and prediction of the Fermi Gamma-ray Space Telescope trajectory is strongly impacted by the unpredictability and variability of atmospheric density and the spacecrafts ballistic coefficient. Operationally, Global Positioning System point solutions are processed with an extended Kalman filter for orbit determination, and predictions are generated for conjunction assessment with secondary objects. When these predictions are compared to Joint Space Operations Center radar-based solutions, the close approach distance between the two predictions can greatly differ ahead of the conjunction. This work explores strategies for improving prediction accuracy and helps to explain the prediction disparities. Namely, a tuning analysis is performed to determine atmospheric drag modeling and filter parameters that can improve orbit determination as well as prediction accuracy. A 45 improvement in three-day prediction accuracy is realized by tuning the ballistic coefficient and atmospheric density stochastic models, measurement frequency, and other modeling and filter parameters.

orbit prediction↗

NASA NTRS2014

Improving Fermi Orbit Determination and Prediction in an Uncertain Atmospheric Drag Environment

Orbit determination and prediction of the Fermi Gamma-ray Space Telescope trajectory is strongly impacted by the unpredictability and variability of atmospheric density and the spacecraft's ballistic coefficient. Operationally, Global Positioning System point solutions are processed with an extended Kalman filter for orbit determination, and predictions are generated for conjunction assessment with secondary objects. When these predictions are compared to Joint Space Operations Center radar-based solutions, the close approach distance between the two predictions can greatly differ ahead of the conjunction. This work explores strategies for improving prediction accuracy and helps to explain the prediction disparities. Namely, a tuning analysis is performed to determine atmospheric drag modeling and filter parameters that can improve orbit determination as well as prediction accuracy. A 45% improvement in three-day prediction accuracy is realized by tuning the ballistic coefficient and atmospheric density stochastic models, measurement frequency, and other modeling and filter parameters.

orbit prediction↗

NASA NTRS1972

Radiative lifetimes and absolute oscillator strengths for the SiO A/super 1/Pi to X/super 1/Sigma+ transition.

Measurement of a radiative lifetime of 9.6 (plus or minus 1.0) nsec for the SiO A(super 1)Pi state is reported. RKR Franck-Condon factors have been computed and, with these, absolute oscillator strengths are calculated. A band system at 3022 A has been found that may be due to SiO+, but the band is not resolved at our experimental resolution, and identification remains uncertain. The upper state of the carrier of this spectrum has a radiative lifetime of 8.3 (plus or minus 0.8) nsec.

Smith, W. H.↗