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All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

NASA NTRS1998

A Novel Solution-Technique Applied to a Novel WAAS Architecture

The Federal Aviation Administration has embarked on an historic task of modernizing and significantly improving the national air transportation system. One system that uses the Global Positioning System (GPS) to determine aircraft navigational information is called the Wide Area Augmentation System (WAAS). This paper describes a reliability assessment of one candidate system architecture for the WAAS. A unique aspect of this study regards the modeling and solution of a candidate system that allows a novel cold sparing scheme. The cold spare is a WAAS communications satellite that is fabricated and launched after a predetermined number of orbiting satellite failures have occurred and after some stochastic fabrication time transpires. Because these satellites are complex systems with redundant components, they exhibit an increasing failure rate with a Weibull time to failure distribution. Moreover, the cold spare satellite build-time is Weibull and upon launch is considered to be a good-as-new system with an increasing failure rate and a Weibull time to failure distribution as well. The reliability model for this system is non-Markovian because three distinct system clocks are required: the time to failure of the orbiting satellites, the build time for the cold spare, and the time to failure for the launched spare satellite. A powerful dynamic fault tree modeling notation and Monte Carlo simulation technique with importance sampling are shown to arrive at a reliability prediction for a 10 year mission.

Bavuso, J.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Advanced detection, isolation, and accommodation of sensor failures in turbofan engines: Real-time microcomputer implementation

The objective of the Advanced Detection, Isolation, and Accommodation Program is to improve the overall demonstrated reliability of digital electronic control systems for turbine engines. For this purpose, an algorithm was developed which detects, isolates, and accommodates sensor failures by using analytical redundancy. The performance of this algorithm was evaluated on a real time engine simulation and was demonstrated on a full scale F100 turbofan engine. The real time implementation of the algorithm is described. The implementation used state-of-the-art microprocessor hardware and software, including parallel processing and high order language programming.

Delaat, John C.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Monitoring System for Storm Readiness and Recovery of Test Facilities: Integrated System Health Management (ISHM) Approach

Severe weather events are likely occurrences on the Mississippi Gulf Coast. It is important to rapidly diagnose and mitigate the effects of storms on Stennis Space Center's rocket engine test complex to avoid delays to critical test article programs, reduce costs, and maintain safety. An Integrated Systems Health Management (ISHM) approach and technologies are employed to integrate environmental (weather) monitoring, structural modeling, and the suite of available facility instrumentation to provide information for readiness before storms, rapid initial damage assessment to guide mitigation planning, and then support on-going assurance as repairs are effected and finally support recertification. The system is denominated Katrina Storm Monitoring System (KStorMS). Integrated Systems Health Management (ISHM) describes a comprehensive set of capabilities that provide insight into the behavior the health of a system. Knowing the status of a system allows decision makers to effectively plan and execute their mission. For example, early insight into component degradation and impending failures provides more time to develop work around strategies and more effectively plan for maintenance. Failures of system elements generally occur over time. Information extracted from sensor data, combined with system-wide knowledge bases and methods for information extraction and fusion, inference, and decision making, can be used to detect incipient failures. If failures do occur, it is critical to detect and isolate them, and suggest an appropriate course of action. ISHM enables determining the condition (health) of every element in a complex system-of-systems or SoS (detect anomalies, diagnose causes, predict future anomalies), and provide data, information, and knowledge (DIaK) to control systems for safe and effective operation. ISHM capability is achieved by using a wide range of technologies that enable anomaly detection, diagnostics, prognostics, and advise for control: (1) anomaly detection algorithms and strategies, (2) fusion of DIaK for anomaly detection (model-based, numerical, statistical, empirical, expert-based, qualitative, etc.), (3) diagnostics/prognostics strategies and methods, (4) user interface, (5) advanced control strategies, (6) integration architectures/frameworks, (7) embedding of intelligence. Many of these technologies are mature, and they are being used in the KStorMS. The paper will describe the design, implementation, and operation of the KStorMS; and discuss further evolution to support other needs such as condition-based maintenance (CBM).

Figueroa, Fernando↗

DOE OSTI2026

Testing Recommendations for Thermal Failure Analysis

Minimizing ranges of uncertainty in failure QOIs is vital for making informed engineering decisions. To improve our decision-making ability, it is necessary to have a QOI representation that captures more complex failure modes. Capturing the physics of complex time-dependent temperature failure in explicit detail can be computationally and experimentally expensive. To avoid this blooming of complication and costs, an empirical QOI component-level failure/damage model may be sufficient to help identify component-level failure. In this context, failure and damage are abstractions of more complicated processes that lead to the cessation of normal operating behavior, not a representation of mechanical damage, such as void formation. Such a model requires minimal increases in computational cost and experimental burden. The proposed QOI serves as an indicator that something has likely failed, similar to the previous critical failure temperatures or pressures. This QOI will not replace any existing failure QOIs. It will be calculated alongside them, allowing for preservation of legacy style QOI measurements with new context from the new QOI.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

NASA NTRS2011

Failure Modes in Capacitors When Tested Under a Time-Varying Stress

Steady step surge testing (SSST) is widely applied to screen out potential power-on failures in solid tantalum capacitors. The test simulates the power supply's on and off characteristics. Power-on failure has been the prevalent failure mechanism for solid tantalum capacitors for decoupling applications. On the other hand, the SSST can also be reviewed as an electrically destructive test under a time-varying stress. It consists of rapidly charging the capacitor with incremental voltage increases, through a low resistance in series, until the capacitor under test is electrically shorted. Highly accelerated life testing (HALT) is usually a time-efficient method for determining the failure mechanism in capacitors; however, a destructive test under a time-varying stress like SSST is even more effective. It normally takes days to complete a HALT test, but it only takes minutes for a time-varying stress test to produce failures. The advantage of incorporating specific time-varying stress into a statistical model is significant in providing an alternative life test method for quickly revealing the failure modes in capacitors. In this paper, a time-varying stress has been incorporated into the Weibull model to characterize the failure modes. The SSST circuit and transient conditions to correctly test the capacitors is discussed. Finally, the SSST was applied for testing polymer aluminum capacitors (PA capacitors), Ta capacitors, and multi-layer ceramic capacitors with both precious metal electrode (PME) and base-metal-electrodes (BME). It appears that testing results are directly associated to the dielectric layer breakdown in PA and Ta capacitors and are independent on the capacitor values, the way the capacitors being built, and the manufactures. The testing results also reveal that ceramic capacitors exhibit breakdown voltages more than 20 times the rated voltage, and the breakdown voltages are inverse proportional to the dielectric layer thickness. The possibility of ceramic capacitors in front-end decoupling applications to block the surge noise from a power supply is also discussed.

Liu, David (Donhang)↗

NASA NTRS2015

A Numerical Solution Routine for Investigating Oxidation-Induced Strength Degradation Mechanisms in SiC/SiC Composites

The stress rupture strength of silicon carbide fiber-reinforced silicon carbide (SiCSiC) composites with a boron nitride (BN) fiber coating decreases with time within the intermediate temperature range of 700-950 C. Various theories have been proposed to explain the cause of the time dependent stress rupture strength. Some previous authors have suggested that the observed composite strength behavior is due to the inherent time dependent strength of the fibers, which is caused by the slow growth of flaws within the fibers. Flaw growth is supposedly enabled by oxidation of free carbon at the grain boundaries. The objective of this paper is to investigate the relative significance of the various theories for the time-dependent strength of SiCSiC composites. This is achieved through the development of a numerically-based progressive failure analysis routine and through the application of the routine to simulate the composite stress rupture tests. The progressive failure routine is a time marching routine with an iterative loop between a probability of fiber survival equation and a force equilibrium equation within each time step. Failure of the composite is assumed to initiate near a matrix crack and the progression of fiber failures occurs by global load sharing. The probability of survival equation is derived from consideration of the strength of ceramic fibers with randomly occurring and slow growing flaws as well as the mechanical interaction between the fibers and matrix near a matrix crack. The force equilibrium equation follows from the global load sharing presumption. The results of progressive failure analyses of the composite tests suggest that the relationship between time and stress-rupture strength is attributed almost entirely to the slow flaw growth within the fibers. Although other mechanisms may be present, they appear to have only a minor influence on the observed time dependent behavior.

degradation↗

NASA NTRS2016

Time-Dependent Stress Rupture Strength Degradation of Hi-Nicalon Fiber-Reinforced Silicon Carbide Composites at Intermediate Temperatures

The stress rupture strength of silicon carbide fiber-reinforced silicon carbide composites with a boron nitride fiber coating decreases with time within the intermediate temperature range of 700 to 950 degree Celsius. Various theories have been proposed to explain the cause of the time-dependent stress rupture strength. The objective of this paper is to investigate the relative significance of the various theories for the time-dependent strength of silicon carbide fiber-reinforced silicon carbide composites. This is achieved through the development of a numerically based progressive failure analysis routine and through the application of the routine to simulate the composite stress rupture tests. The progressive failure routine is a time-marching routine with an iterative loop between a probability of fiber survival equation and a force equilibrium equation within each time step. Failure of the composite is assumed to initiate near a matrix crack and the progression of fiber failures occurs by global load sharing. The probability of survival equation is derived from consideration of the strength of ceramic fibers with randomly occurring and slow growing flaws as well as the mechanical interaction between the fibers and matrix near a matrix crack. The force equilibrium equation follows from the global load sharing presumption. The results of progressive failure analyses of the composite tests suggest that the relationship between time and stress-rupture strength is attributed almost entirely to the slow flaw growth within the fibers. Although other mechanisms may be present, they appear to have only a minor influence on the observed time-dependent behavior.

Progressive Failure Analysis↗

DOE OSTI2026

Emergence of Diverse Failure Patterns in Weathering‐Induced Landslides: Insights From Particle Finite Element Simulations

Weathering is a fundamental driver of landslide evolution over geological timescales. Despite its ubiquity and importance, quantifying how weathering drives the progressive destabilization of rock slopes remains challenging. In this work, we develop a unified computational framework based on the particle finite element method to investigate the evolution of weathering‐induced landslides, from long‐term weathering to short‐term slope failure and runout dynamics. The framework integrates key processes, including weathering front propagation, time‐dependent strength degradation, rupture surface development, and post‐failure runout dynamics. Through numerical simulation experiments, we elucidate how interactions among weathering characteristics (type, intensity, and rate law), bedrock strength, fracture distribution, and slope geometry govern the failure modes and kinematics of weathering‐induced landslides. Simulations show that matrix‐dominated weathering leads to shallow translational failures, whereas fracture‐dominated weathering produces deep‐seated rotational and compound landslides. Pre‐existing fractures and slope morphology also strongly influence the movement of destabilized landmasses, affecting the failure pattern (e.g., kinematic mode and rupture surface geometry) and post‐failure behavior (e.g., runout velocity). We further demonstrate that the failure time and volume of weathered slopes are governed by the competition between gravitational driving forces and cohesive resisting forces during progressive destabilization. These findings provide new insights into the fundamental mechanisms that drive the emergence of diverse failure patterns of weathering‐induced landslides with important implications for landslide hazard assessment.

Wang, Liang [Eidgenoessische Technische Hochschule↗

NASA NTRS1984

A real-time FORTRAN implementation of a sensor failure detection, isolation and accommodation algorithm

An advanced, sensor failure detection, isolation, and accomodation algorithm has been developed by NASA for the F100 turbofan engine. The algorithm takes advantage of the analytical redundancy of the sensors to improve the reliability of the sensor set. The method requires the controls computer, to determine when a sensor failure has occurred without the help of redundant hardware sensors in the control system. The controls computer provides an estimate of the correct value of the output of the failed sensor. The algorithm has been programmed in FORTRAN using a real-time microprocessor-based controls computer. A detailed description of the algorithm and its implementation on a microprocessor is given.

Delaat, J. C.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Weathering processes implied from analysis of small Martian avalanche chutes

It has been proposed that the smaller features of martian spur and gully slope morphology, located along the upper walls of Valles Marineris, are avalanche chutes. A three-dimensional stability back-analysis technique was developed and applied to these small avalanche chutes, yielding average values of cohesion and angle of internal friction for the mobile layer materials on these slopes at the time of each slope failure. Generally, the analysis showed that at the time of each slope failure material strengths had been reduced to those of moderately cohesive debris down through depths of tens of meters. These results have implications and possible constraints for the nature and rate of martian weathering processes.

Sullivan, R.↗

DOE OSTI2026

Extending Component Lifetime And Improving Inverter Reliability (ECLAIIR)

Inverter reliability remains one of the most persistent challenges limiting the performance, availability, and economic viability of utility‑scale photovoltaic (PV) plants. Industry data consistently show that inverters account for the highest share of corrective maintenance events and unplanned outages across PV fleets. These failures result in energy losses, increased O&M costs, and reduced confidence in long‑term solar asset performance. Motivated by these challenges, this project—Extending Component Lifetime and Improving Inverter Reliability (ECLAIIR)—was undertaken to systematically investigate inverter degradation and failure mechanisms, develop predictive maintenance capabilities, and establish data‑driven pathways to improve service life and reduce the Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) for large‑scale PV systems. The primary goal of the project was to identify pre‑failure signatures in string inverters using both lab‑based accelerated lifetime testing and field‑based data and to develop predictive maintenance algorithms that can anticipate inverter faults before they occur. Through collaboration with inverter testing laboratory, solar PV plant owner, and failure‑analysis experts, the project advanced the technical understanding of inverter reliability. By instrumenting inverters with thermistors, humidity sensors, power‑quality meters, and acoustic sensors, the research established how multiple sensing modalities can reliably detect deviations from normal behavior hours to days before failure. These findings substantially enhance scientific understanding of inverter failure kinetics and provide the PV industry with the most comprehensive cross‑OEM characterization of early‑stage failure indicators reported to date. Technically, the project demonstrated the effectiveness of predictive maintenance by developing and validating the PreDICT (Predictive Diagnostics of PV Inverters Using Condition Monitoring and Trend Analysis) framework—a multi‑layer diagnostic architecture combining peer‑to‑peer analytics, historical trend modeling, and advanced machine‑learning techniques such as the Sequential Conditional Variational Autoencoder (SCVAE). This predictive model achieved more than 90% accuracy in detecting pre‑failure conditions and provided up to four days of lead time before inverter failure in field scenarios. Economically, the project’s LCOE analysis showed that predictive maintenance can reduce lifetime energy losses and minimize corrective maintenance interventions. Modeling indicated that, depending on inverter failure rates and replacement timelines, predictive maintenance can significantly reduce LCOE impacts associated with inverter downtime: from as high as 19.4% under conventional maintenance strategies to 0.1%–10.17% when predictive analytics are adopted. These results confirm that predictive maintenance is both technically feasible and economically advantageous for utilities and plant operators. The project’s findings also have broad public benefit. By improving inverter reliability and reducing downtime, predictive maintenance directly increases electricity generation from existing PV assets. Enhanced reliability lowers operational costs for utilities, which can translate over time into lower energy costs for consumers. Furthermore, the project’s technical publications, conference presentations, and industry workshops ensure that knowledge gained is shared broadly across the solar industry, supporting workforce development and enabling utilities of all sizes to adopt modern asset‑health monitoring practices. The retrofitting case study and service‑life prediction framework further support informed decision‑making for aging PV fleets, helping operators extend system life and reduce electronic waste. In summary, the ECLAIIR project significantly advanced the state of knowledge on inverter degradation, demonstrated the technical and economic value of predictive maintenance, and delivered actionable tools and insights that support more reliable, cost‑effective, and sustainable PV plant operation. The outcomes of this project will continue to inform utility practices, guide inverter design improvements, and strengthen the long‑term performance of solar assets nationwide.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS1983

A real-time implementation of an advanced sensor failure detection, isolation, and accommodation algorithm

A sensor failure detection, isolation, and accommodation algorithm was developed which incorporates analytic sensor redundancy through software. This algorithm was implemented in a high level language on a microprocessor based controls computer. Parallel processing and state-of-the-art 16-bit microprocessors are used along with efficient programming practices to achieve real-time operation.

Delaat, J. C.↗

NASA NTRS1984

A real-time implementation of an advanced sensor failure detection, isolation, and accommodation algorithm

Delaat, J. C.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Fault Tree Based Diagnosis with Optimal Test Sequencing for Field Service Engineers

When field service engineers go to customer sites to service equipment, they want to diagnose and repair failures quickly and cost effectively. Symptoms exhibited by failed equipment frequently suggest several possible causes which require different approaches to diagnosis. This can lead the engineer to follow several fruitless paths in the diagnostic process before they find the actual failure. To assist in this situation, we have developed the Fault Tree Diagnosis and Optimal Test Sequence (FTDOTS) software system that performs automated diagnosis and ranks diagnostic hypotheses based on failure probability and the time or cost required to isolate and repair each failure. FTDOTS first finds a set of possible failures that explain exhibited symptoms by using a fault tree reliability model as a diagnostic knowledge to rank the hypothesized failures based on how likely they are and how long it would take or how much it would cost to isolate and repair them. This ordering suggests an optimal sequence for the field service engineer to investigate the hypothesized failures in order to minimize the time or cost required to accomplish the repair task. Previously, field service personnel would arrive at the customer site and choose which components to investigate based on past experience and service manuals. Using FTDOTS running on a portable computer, they can now enter a set of symptoms and get a list of possible failures ordered in an optimal test sequence to help them in their decisions. If facilities are available, the field engineer can connect the portable computer to the malfunctioning device for automated data gathering. FTDOTS is currently being applied to field service of medical test equipment. The techniques are flexible enough to use for many different types of devices. If a fault tree model of the equipment and information about component failure probabilities and isolation times or costs are available, a diagnostic knowledge base for that device can be developed easily.

Iverson, David L.↗

NASA NTRS1981

Endurance tests with large-bore tapered-roller bearings to 2.2 million DN

Endurance life tests were run with standard-design bearings of vacuum-melted AISI 4320 and CBS-1000M at 12,500 rpm, and high-speed bearings of CBS-1000M and trough-hardened AISI M-50 at 18,500 rpm. Both sets of bearings were of 120.65 mm bore-tapered roller type, and were run under heavy combined radial and thrust loads until either fatigue failure or a preset cutoff time of 1100 hours was reached. It was found that: (1) the CBS-1000M standard-design bearings ran to a 10% life approximately six times that of the rated catalog life; (2) twelve identical bearings of AISI 4320 ran to ten times rated catalog life without failure; (3) cracking and fracture of the cones of AISI M-50 high-speed design bearings occurred at 18,500 rpm due to high tensile hoop stresses; and (4) four CBS 1000M high-speed bearings ran to twenty-four times rated catalog life without spalling, cracking or fracture failures.

Parker, R. J.↗

NASA NTRS1988

The economics of satellite retrieval

The economics of space operations with and without the Space Station have been studied in terms of the financial performance of a typical communications-satellite business venture. A stochastic Monte-Carlo communications-satellite business model is employed which includes factors such as satellite configuration, random and wearout failures, reliability of launch and space operations, stand-down time resulting from failures, and insurance by operation. Financial performance impacts have been evaluated in terms of the magnitude of investment, net present value, and return on investment.

Price, Kent M.↗

NASA NTRS2005

CRYOGENIC UPPER STAGE SYSTEM SAFETY

NASA s Exploration Initiative will require development of many new systems or systems of systems. One specific example is that safe, affordable, and reliable upper stage systems to place cargo and crew in stable low earth orbit are urgently required. In this paper, we examine the failure history of previous upper stages with liquid oxygen (LOX)/liquid hydrogen (LH2) propulsion systems. Launch data from 1964 until midyear 2005 are analyzed and presented. This data analysis covers upper stage systems from the Ariane, Centaur, H-IIA, Saturn, and Atlas in addition to other vehicles. Upper stage propulsion system elements have the highest impact on reliability. This paper discusses failure occurrence in all aspects of the operational phases (Le., initial burn, coast, restarts, and trends in failure rates over time). In an effort to understand the likelihood of future failures in flight, we present timelines of engine system failures relevant to initial flight histories. Some evidence suggests that propulsion system failures as a result of design problems occur shortly after initial development of the propulsion system; whereas failures because of manufacturing or assembly processing errors may occur during any phase of the system builds process, This paper also explores the detectability of historical failures. Observations from this review are used to ascertain the potential for increased upper stage reliability given investments in integrated system health management. Based on a clear understanding of the failure and success history of previous efforts by multiple space hardware development groups, the paper will investigate potential improvements that can be realized through application of system safety principles.

Smith, R. Kenneth↗

NASA NTRS2020

Lower Level Repair Can Easily Fail Due to High Complexity

The International Space Station (ISS) uses Orbital Replacement Units (ORU’s) to repair failures on orbit. Using ORU’s reduces the crew time required to repair failures, but several copies of each ORU must be stored on ISS to ensure system availability. A typical ORU contains many components and has significant mass, but each ORU can repair only a single component failure. A full set of the ORU internal components could repair many different failures. Lower level assembly or component repair should reduce total spares mass. Successful electronics repair experiments were conducted on ISS. However, implementing component level repair would require a significant effort. The systems must be designed so they can be repaired during a mission, considering component layout and accessibility. The repair procedures must be developed and repair facilities, tools, and diagnostic and test instruments provided. Tracing a fault to a component is much more difficult than isolating it to an ORU. Replacing a component is much more difficult than replacing an ORU. Some problems with lower level repair are discussed. The mass savings of lower level repair will not save as much launch cost as before since launch cost has recently been reduced by an order of magnitude. Most system failures are not component failures that can be fixed by replacing a component but are due to system level problems. Repair and maintenance should be planned as part of an overall maintainability design. The risk that a lower level repair will fail is considerably greater than when using ORUs. With modern high reliability packaged systems, failure diagnosis and repair has become a lost art. However, diagnosis and repair data from the 1960’s show that increasing complexity often causes much longer diagnosis and repair times and may prevent successful repair. Increasing complexity by using lower level repair directly increases system cost, failure rate, crew time for repair, and the risk of an unrepairable system failure.

Harry W Jones↗