The adaptive prediction of time series.
Adaptive technique determination of optimum operations for pure prediction of discrete time series with respect to mean square error cost function
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Evaluation of GPS Coverage for the X-33 Michael-6 Trajectory
The onboard navigational system for the X-33 test flights will be based on the use of measurements collected from the Embedded Global Positioning System (GPS)/INS system. Some of the factors which will affect the quality of the GPS contribution to the navigational solution will be the number of pseudorange measurements collected at any instant in time, the distribution of the GPS satellites within the field of view, and the inherent noise level of the GPS receiver. The distribution of GPS satellites within the field of view of the receiver's antenna will depend on the receiver's position, the time of day, pointing direction of the antenna, and the effective cone angle of the antenna. The number of pseudorange measurements collected will depend upon these factors as well as the time required to lock onto a GPS satellite signal once the GPS satellite comes into the field of view of the antenna and the number of available receiver channels. The objective of this study is to evaluate the GPS coverage resulting from the proposed antenna pointing directions, the proposed antenna cone angles, and the effects due to the time of day for the X-33 Michael-6 trajectory from launch at Edwards AFB, California, to the start of the Terminal Area Energy Management (TAEM) phase on approach to Michael AAF, Utah.
Lundberg, John B.↗
Fast-Time Simulation for Evaluating the Impact of Estimated Flight Ready Time Uncertainty on Surface Metering
NASA has been developing and demonstrating new concepts and technologies for Integrated Arrival, Departure, and Surface (IADS) traffic management capabilities under the Airspace Technology Demonstration 2 (ATD-2) project. One of the IADS capabilities in the ATD-2 project is surface metering enabled by a tactical surface scheduler to provide controllers with the pushback advisories for departures at gates. The tactical surface scheduler uses the estimated flight ready times provided by airlines, called Earliest Off-Block Times (EOBTs), as input to calculate the target off-block times for pushback advisories. However, the EOBTs are often inaccurate and deviate from the actual flight ready times, which may reduce the benefits of surface metering. In this paper, a linear regression model is developed to model the EOBT uncertainty distribution over time based on actual EOBT data collected at Charlotte airport. This EOBT model is integrated with a tactical surface scheduler and a fast-time simulation tool. To evaluate the impact of the EOBT accuracy on airport surface operations, fast-time simulations are implemented for selected traffic scenarios under different levels of modelled EOBT accuracy. The simulation results show that the EOBT uncertainty affects several performance metrics related to the surface metering, such as gate hold, taxi time reduction, and target takeoff time predictability, which in turn influences ATD-2's scheduler performance.
tactical surface scheduler↗
Fast-Time Simulation for Evaluating the Impact of Estimated Flight Ready Time Uncertainty on Surface Metering
NASA has been developing and demonstrating new concepts and technologies for Integrated Arrival, Departure, and Surface (IADS) traffic management capabilities under the Airspace Technology Demonstration 2 (ATD-2) project. One of the IADS capabilities in the ATD-2 project is surface metering enabled by a tactical surface scheduler to provide controllers with the pushback advisories for departures at gates. The tactical surface scheduler uses the estimated flight ready times provided by airlines, called Earliest Off-Block Times (EOBTs), as input to calculate the target off-block times for pushback advisories. However, the EOBTs are often inaccurate and deviate from the actual flight ready times, which may reduce the benefits of surface metering. In this paper, a linear regression model is developed to model the EOBT uncertainty distribution over time based on actual EOBT data collected at Charlotte airport. This EOBT model is integrated with a tactical surface scheduler and a fast-time simulation tool. To evaluate the impact of the EOBT accuracy on airport surface operations, fast-time simulations are implemented for selected traffic scenarios under different levels of modelled EOBT accuracy. The simulation results show that the EOBT uncertainty affects several performance metrics related to the surface metering, such as gate hold, taxi time reduction, and target takeoff time predictability, which in turn influences ATD-2's scheduler performance.
tactical surface scheduler↗
Communication and control in an integrated manufacturing system
Typically, components in a manufacturing system are all centrally controlled. Due to possible communication bottlenecking, unreliability, and inflexibility caused by using a centralized controller, a new concept of system integration called an Integrated Multi-Robot System (IMRS) was developed. The IMRS can be viewed as a distributed real time system. Some of the current research issues being examined to extend the framework of the IMRS to meet its performance goals are presented. These issues include the use of communication coprocessors to enhance performance, the distribution of tasks and the methods of providing fault tolerance in the IMRS. An application example of real time collision detection, as it relates to the IMRS concept, is also presented and discussed.
Shin, Kang G.↗
Delivery and application of precise timing for a traveling wave powerline fault locator system
The Bonneville Power Administration (BPA) has successfully operated an in-house developed powerline fault locator system since 1986. The BPA fault locator system consists of remotes installed at cardinal power transmission line system nodes and a central master which polls the remotes for traveling wave time-of-arrival data. A power line fault produces a fast rise-time traveling wave which emanates from the fault point and propagates throughout the power grid. The remotes time-tag the traveling wave leading edge as it passes through the power system cardinal substation nodes. A synchronizing pulse transmitted via the BPA analog microwave system on a wideband channel sychronizes the time-tagging counters in the remote units to a different accuracy of better than one microsecond. The remote units correct the raw time tags for synchronizing pulse propagation delay and return these corrected values to the fault locator master. The master then calculates the power system disturbance source using the collected time tags. The system design objective is a fault location accuracy of 300 meters. BPA's fault locator system operation, error producing phenomena, and method of distributing precise timing are described.
Street, Michael A.↗
Statistical aspects of solar flares
A survey of the statistical properties of 850 H alpha solar flares during 1975 is presented. Comparison of the results found here with those reported elsewhere for different epochs is accomplished. Distributions of rise time, decay time, and duration are given, as are the mean, mode, median, and 90th percentile values. Proportions by selected groupings are also determined. For flares in general, mean values for rise time, decay time, and duration are 5.2 + or - 0.4 min, and 18.1 + or 1.1 min, respectively. Subflares, accounting for nearly 90 percent of the flares, had mean values lower than those found for flares of H alpha importance greater than 1, and the differences are statistically significant. Likewise, flares of bright and normal relative brightness have mean values of decay time and duration that are significantly longer than those computed for faint flares, and mass-motion related flares are significantly longer than non-mass-motion related flares. Seventy-three percent of the mass-motion related flares are categorized as being a two-ribbon flare and/or being accompanied by a high-speed dark filament. Slow rise time flares (rise time greater than 5 min) have a mean value for duration that is significantly longer than that computed for fast rise time flares, and long-lived duration flares (duration greater than 18 min) have a mean value for rise time that is significantly longer than that computed for short-lived duration flares, suggesting a positive linear relationship between rise time and duration for flares. Monthly occurrence rates for flares in general and by group are found to be linearly related in a positive sense to monthly sunspot number. Statistical testing reveals the association between sunspot number and numbers of flares to be significant at the 95 percent level of confidence, and the t statistic for slope is significant at greater than 99 percent level of confidence. Dependent upon the specific fit, between 58 percent and 94 percent of the variation can be accounted for with the linear fits. A statistically significant Northern Hemisphere flare excess (P less than 1 percent) was found, as was a Western Hemisphere excess (P approx 3 percent). Subflares were more prolific within 45 deg of central meridian (P less than 1 percent), while flares of H alpha importance or = 1 were more prolific near the limbs greater than 45 deg from central meridian; P approx 2 percent). Two-ribbon flares were more frequent within 45 deg of central meridian (P less than 1 percent). Slow rise time flares occurred more frequently in the western hemisphere (P approx 2 percent), as did short-lived duration flares (P approx 9 percent), but fast rise time flares were not preferentially distributed (in terms of east-west or limb-disk). Long-lived duration flares occurred more often within 45 deg 0 central meridian (P approx 7 percent). Mean durations for subflares and flares of H alpha importance or + 1, found within 45 deg of central meridian, are 14 percent and 70 percent, respectively, longer than those found for flares closer to the limb. As compared to flares occurring near cycle maximum, the flares of 1975 (near solar minimum) have mean values of rise time, decay time, and duration that are significantly shorter. A flare near solar maximum, on average, is about 1.6 times longer than one occurring near solar minimum.
Wilson, Robert M.↗
Statistical Properties of SGR 1806-20 Bursts
We present statistics of SGR 1806-20 bursts, combining 290 events detected with the Rossi X-Ray Timing Explorer/Proportional Counter Array, 111 events detected with the Burst and Transient Source Experiment, and 134 events detected with the International Cometary, Explorer. We find that the fluence distribution of bursts observed with each instrument are well described by power laws with indices 1.43, 1.76, and 1.67, respectively. The distribution of time intervals between successive bursts from SGR 1806-20 is described by a lognormal function with a peak at 103 s. There is no correlation between the burst intensity and either the waiting times until the next burst or the time elapsed since the previous burst. In all these statistical properties, SGR 1806-20 bursts resemble a self-organized critical system, similar to earthquakes and solar flares. Our results thus support the hypothesis that the energy source for soft gamma repeater bursts is crustquakes due to the evolving, strong magnetic field of the neutron star, rather than any accretion or nuclear power.
Gogus, Ersin↗
RNAV STAR Procedural Adherence
Flight crews and air traffic controllers have reported many safety concerns regarding area navigation standard terminal arrival routes (RNAV STARs). However, our information sources to quantify these issues are limited to subjective reporting and time consuming case-by-case investigations. This work is a preliminary study into the objective performance of instrument procedures and provides a framework to track procedural concepts and assess design functionality. We created a tool and analysis methods for gauging aircraft adherence as it relates to RNAV STARs. This information is vital for comprehensive understanding of how our air traffic behaves. In this exploratory archival study, we mined the performance of 24 major US airports over the preceding three years. Overlaying radar track data on top of RNAV STAR routes provided a comparison between aircraft flight paths and the waypoint positions and altitude restrictions. NASA Ames Supercomputing resources were utilized to perform the data mining and processing. We assessed STARs by lateral transition path (full-lateral), vertical restrictions (full-lateralfull-vertical), and skipped waypoints (skips). In addition, we graphed aircraft altitudes relative to the altitude restrictions and their occurrence rates. Full-lateral adherence was generally greater than Full-lateralfull-vertical, but the difference between the rates was not always consistent. Full-lateralfull-vertical adherence medians of the 2016 procedures ranged from 0 in KDEN (Denver) to 21 in KMEM (Memphis). Waypoint skips ranged from 0 to nearly 100 for specific waypoints. Altitudes restrictions were sometimes missed by systematic amounts in 1000 ft. increments from the restriction, creating multi-modal distributions. Other times, altitude misses looked to be more normally distributed around the restriction. This tool may aid in providing acceptability metrics as well as risk assessment information.
rnav↗
Objective Assessment Method for RNAV STAR Adherence
Flight crews and air traffic controllers have reported many safety concerns regarding area navigation standard terminal arrival routes (RNAV STARs). Specifically, optimized profile descents (OPDs). However, our information sources to quantify these issues are limited to subjective reporting and time consuming case-by-case investigations. This work is a preliminary study into the objective performance of instrument procedures and provides a framework to track procedural concepts and assess design specifications. We created a tool and analysis methods for gauging aircraft adherence as it relates to RNAV STARs. This information is vital for comprehensive understanding of how our air traffic behaves. In this study, we mined the performance of 24 major US airports over the preceding three years. Overlaying 4D radar track data onto RNAV STAR routes provided a comparison between aircraft flight paths and the waypoint positions and altitude restrictions. NASA Ames Supercomputing resources were utilized to perform the data mining and processing. We assessed STARs by lateral transition path (full-lateral), vertical restrictions (full-lateral/full-vertical), and skipped waypoints (skips). In addition, we graphed frequencies of aircraft altitudes relative to the altitude restrictions. Full-lateral adherence was always greater than Full-lateral/ full- vertical, as it is a subset, but the difference between the rates was not consistent. Full-lateral/full-vertical adherence medians of the 2016 procedures ranged from 0% in KDEN (Denver) to 21% in KMEM (Memphis). Waypoint skips ranged from 0% to nearly 100% for specific waypoints. Altitudes restrictions were sometimes missed by systematic amounts in 1,000 ft. increments from the restriction, creating multi-modal distributions. Other times, altitude misses looked to be more normally distributed around the restriction. This tool may aid in providing acceptability metrics as well as risk assessment information.
Stewart, Michael↗
Understanding Customer Dissatisfaction with Underutilized Distributed File Servers
An important trend in the design of storage subsystems is a move toward direct network attachment. Network-attached storage offers the opportunity to off-load distributed file system functionality from dedicated file server machines and execute many requests directly at the storage devices. For this strategy to lead to better performance, as perceived by users, the response time of distributed operations must improve. In this paper we analyze measurements of an Andrew file system (AFS) server that we recently upgraded in an effort to improve client performance in our laboratory. While the original server's overall utilization was only about 3%, we show how burst loads were sufficiently intense to lead to period of poor response time significant enough to trigger customer dissatisfaction. In particular, we show how, after adjusting for network load and traffic to non-project servers, 50% of the variation in client response time was explained by variation in server central processing unit (CPU) use. That is, clients saw long response times in large part because the server was often over-utilized when it was used at all. Using these measures, we see that off-loading file server work in a network-attached storage architecture has to potential to benefit user response time. Computational power in such a system scales directly with storage capacity, so the slowdown during burst period should be reduced.
Riedel, Erik↗
On-board data analysis techniques for space plasma particle instruments
This article describes the on-board data analysis techniques used on two recent space plasma particle instruments to compute meaningful parameters of three-dimensional plasma distributions in real time. These parameters may be transmitted with much higher time resolution than the full distribution within the limited telemetry. In addition, they greatly reduce the ground processing requirements.
Curtis, D. W.↗
A Statistical Analysis of Loop-Top Motion in Solar Limb Flares
Previous studies of hot, thermal solar flare loops imaged with the Ramaty High Energy Solar Spectroscopic Imager (RHESSI) have identified several flares for which the loop top shrinks downward early in the impulsive phase and then expands upward later in the impulsive phase (Sui & Holman 2003; Sui, Holman & Dennis 2004; Veronig et al. 2005). This early downward motion is not predicted by flare models. We study a statistical sample of RHESSI flares to assess how common this evolution is and to better characterize it. In a sample of 88 flares near the solar lin$ that show identifiable loop structure in RHESSI images, 66% (58 flares) showed downward loop-top motion followed by upward motion. We therefore conclude that the early downward motion is a frequent characteristic of flare loops. We obtain the distribution of the timing of the change from downward to upward motion relative to flare start and peak times. We also obtain the distributions of downward and upward speeds.
Holman, Gordon D.↗
Virtual time and time warp on the JPL hypercube
This paper describes the concept of virtual time and its implementation in the Time Warp Operating System at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory. Virtual time is a distributed synchronization paradigm that is appropriate for distributed simulation, database concurrency control, real time systems, and coordination of replicated processes. The Time Warp Operating System is targeted toward the distributed simulation application and runs on a 32-node JPL Mark II Hypercube.
Jefferson, David↗
HINCOF-1: a Code for Hail Ingestion in Engine Inlets
One of the major concerns during hail ingestion into an engine is the resulting amount and space- and time-wise distribution of hail at the engine face for a given geometry of inlet and set of atmospheric and flight conditions. The appearance of hail in the capture streamtube is invariably random in space and time, with respect to size and momentum. During the motion of a hailstone through an inlet, a hailstone undergoes several processes, namely impact with other hailstones and material surfaces of the inlet and spinner, rolling and rebound following impact; heat and mass transfer; phase change; and shattering, the latter three due to friction and impact. Taking all of these factors into account, a numerical code, designated HINCOF-I, has been developed for determining the motion hailstones from the atmosphere, through an inlet, and up to the engine face. The numerical procedure is based on the Monte-Carlo method. The report presents a description of the code, along with several illustrative cases. The code can be utilized to relate the spinner geometry - conical or, more effective, elliptical - to the possible diversion of hail at the engine face into the bypass stream. The code is also useful for assessing the influence of various hail characteristics on the ingestion and distribution of hailstones over the engine face.
Gopalaswamy, N.↗
Fundamental processes in the expansion, energization, and coupling of single- and multi-Ion plasmas in space: Laboratory simulation experiments
We have conducted a laboratory investigation into the physics of plasma expansions and their associated energization processes. We studied single- and multi-ion plasma processes in self-expansions, and included light and heavy ions and heavy/light mixtures to encompass the phenomenological regimes of the solar and polar winds and the AMPTE and CRRES chemical release programs. The laboratory experiments provided spatially-distributed time-dependent measurements of total plasma density, temperature, and density fluctuation power spectra with the data confirming the long-theorized electron energization process in an expanding cloud - a result that was impossible to determine in spaceborne experiments (as e.g., in the CRRES program). These results provided the missing link in previous laboratory and spaceborne programs. confirming important elements in our understanding of such solar-terrestrial processes as manifested in expanding plasmas in the solar wind (e.g., CMES) and in ionospheric outflow in plasmaspheric fluctuate refilling after a storm. The energization signatures were seen in an entire series of runs that varied the ion species (Ar', Xe', Kr' and Ne'), and correlative studies included spectral analyses of electrostatic waves collocated with the energized electron distributions. In all cases wave energies were most intense during the times in which the suprathermal populations were present, with wave intensity increasing with the intensity of the suprathermal electron population. This is consistent with theoretical expectations wherein the energization process is directly attributable to wave particle interactions. No resonance conditions were observed, in an overall framework in which the general wave characteristics were broadband with power decreasing with increasing frequency.
Szuszczewicz, E. P.↗
Deconflicting Wind-Optimal Aircraft Trajectories in North Atlantic Oceanic Airspace
North Atlantic oceanic airspace accommodates more than 1000 flights daily, and is subjected to very strong winds. Flying wind-optimal trajectories yields time and fuel savings for each individual flight. However, when taken together, these trajectories induce a large amount of potential en-route conflicts. This paper analyses the detected conflicts, figuring out conflict distribution in time and space. It further describes an optimization algorithm aimed at reducing the number of conflicts for a daily set of flights on strategic level. Several trajectory modification strategies are discussed, followed with simulation results. Finally, an algorithm improvement is presented aiming at better preserving the trajectory optimality.
wind-optimal trajectories↗
Particle distributions in a two-dimensional reconnection field geometry
In order to understand space phase density variations near the magnetopause and in the geomagnetic tail, particle trajectories in a two-dimensional steady state reconnection field geometry are studied by tracing particles from a spacecraft position back in time. The distribution function at the spacecraft is calculated using Liouville's theorem and known distribution functions in the source regions. It is found, in particular, that multiple ion beams in the plasma sheet boundary layer are a natural consequence of reconnection. In the center of the central plasma sheet, the omnidirectional flux of keV ions should be at a minimum. The depth of this minimum is very large near the neutral point but decreases as the distance from the neutral point increases.
Gurran, D. B.↗