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The role of international collaboration in the United States geologic disposal research program

Abstract. More than a decade ago, the United States disposal program discontinued all research activities focused on the unsaturated fractured tuff formation at Yucca Mountain as the geologic disposal site for spent fuel and high-level radioactive waste. A new research and development (R&D) program was initiated to provide a sound technical basis for alternative disposal options across clay, crystalline, and salt rocks. The goals of this broad program were (and still are) to (1) increase confidence in the robustness of generic disposal concepts, (2) develop the science and engineering tools needed to support disposal concept implementation, and (3) conduct R&D on the direct disposal of existing dual-purpose (storage and transportation) canisters. Recognizing the benefits of international collaboration toward the common goal of safely and efficiently managing the back end of the nuclear fuel cycle, the program emphasized international cooperation as an effective strategy for sharing information and knowledge. In a multi-laboratory effort coordinated by Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, the United States Department of Energy (DOE) program established formal and informal cooperation partnerships with several international initiatives and institutions and developed a number of collaborative R&D activities in important research areas, such as engineered barrier integrity, near-field perturbations, radionuclide transport, performance assessment, and methods for characterization and monitoring of engineered and natural barriers. This presentation gives an overview of these R&D activities, with a specific focus on activities that improve our current understanding of the coupled thermal–hydrological–mechanical–chemical (THMC) processes occurring in engineered and natural barriers. We start with a brief review of selected international collaboration initiatives and then describe a few specific collaboration projects. We focus specifically on such studies that use experimental data sets provided by international research cooperation for joint modeling work to increase confidence in performance-relevant predictions of coupled processes. Overall, the focus on international collaboration has allowed deep engagement of US researchers with the international waste management R&D community in terms of best practices, new scientific advances, state-of-the-art simulation tools, new monitoring and performance confirmation approaches, and lessons learned. The joint R&D with international researchers, worldwide sharing of knowledge and experience, and access to relevant data and experiments from a variety of host rocks have helped our researchers to significantly improve their understanding of the current technical basis for disposal in a range of potential host rock environments. International collaboration also provides ample opportunity for training and educating junior staff that are well suited to move the United States disposal research program forward into the next decades, a promising avenue for developing a next-generation workforce of disposal scientists.

Birkholzer, Jens T.↗

Hawai‘i Play Fairway (Final Report)

Most of Hawai'i's geothermal resources are blind—their manifestations, such as hot springs and steam vents, do not appear on the ground surface because the heated water flows far below. With the exception of $K\bar{i}lauea East Rift Zone$, in most areas of Hawai'i, high lateral permeability in the first kilometer below ground surface prevents surface thermal features from developing. As a methodology for discovering these blind resources, Play Fairway Analysis (PFA) involves finding potential locations of blind hydrothermal systems and describing potential geothermal sources in rift-zone settings. Using the PFA to find Hawai'i's geothermal resources, the University of Hawai'i (UH) conducted the Hawai‘i Play Fairway Project, Hawai'i's first statewide geothermal resource assessment since 1985. Sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy, the Hawai'i Play Fairway Project provided an updated resource assessment, a roadmap for additional exploration activities, and the identification of areas for further exploration. Benefitting from UH's core competency in earth sciences and experienced geothermal researchers, the project comprised three phases. During the first phase, the team identified, compiled, and ranked existing geologic, groundwater, and geophysical datasets relevant to subsurface heat, fluid and permeability. Using a Bayesian statistical approach, the team developed a statistical methodology to integrate these data into a resource probability map. The team evaluated the confidence in the probability value and considered development viability of areas with geothermal resources. With these analyses, the team identified 10 locations in the Hawaiian Islands for exploration activities. For the second phase, the team collected new groundwater data in 10 locations across the state and new geophysical data on $L\bar{a}na‘i, Maui$, and central Hawai'i Island and modeled topographically induced stress to better characterize subsurface permeability. Analyzing the subsurface stresses, the team evaluated the potential for fracture-induced permeability. The team inverted the MT and gravity data to produce 3D models of resistivity and density, respectively, on $L\bar{a}na‘i$, across $Haleakal\bar{a}'s$ SW rift (Maui), and surrounding Mauna Kea (Hawai‘i Island). The team developed and applied a new method for incorporating depth information about resistivity, density, and potential for fracture-induced permeability into the statistical method for computing resource probability in these three focus areas. The team incorporated the new groundwater results with the new geophysical results and the calculations of potential for fracture-induced permeability to produce updated maps of resource probability and confidence. Through combining data from the first and second phases, the team determined locations for further exploration during the third phase. For MT and gravity surveys, the team recommended $Kaua'i's$ $L\bar{i}hu'e$ $Basin$, the east rift of $Maui's$ $Haleakal\bar{a}$ volcano, and the southwest rift of Hawai'i Island's Mauna Loa volcano. The MT and gravity surveys aimed to enable improved confidence in the resource potential in these locations. For drilling deep groundwater well(s), the team recommended Southeast Mauna Kea and $L\bar{a}na's$ $P\bar{a}l\bar{a}wai$ $Basin$. During the third phase, further exploration involved drilling a groundwater well in $L\bar{a}na's$ $P\bar{a}l\bar{a}wai$ $Basin$ and performing more geophysical surveys. We deepened an existing water well proximal to our target area on $L\bar{a}na'i$ due to funding constraints that precluded us from spudding a new well that would exceed 1km depth. Drilling was preceded by a number of substantial elements including: writing an Environmental Assessment and the subsequent legal process, performance of deviation logging, lowering a camera down the well, coordinating site preparation with $P\bar{u}lama$ $L\bar{a}na'i$, shipping the UH-owned rig interisland, procuring supplies, and leading 3 community meetings on $L\bar{a}na'i$. Drilling occurred 24/7 the entire month of June 2019 over which time $L\bar{a}na'i$ $Well$ 10 was deepened from 427 m to 1057 m, with continuous core collected. We measured a roughly linear temperature gradient averaging 42°C/km and a maximum bottom hole temperature of 66°C. This gradient is more than twice the background for Hawai'i and within a range of gradients measured in this depth range for some exploration wells within KERZ. We consider these results encouraging for $L\bar{a}na'i's$ resource potential and recommend following with a slim hole within $L\bar{a}na'i's$ caldera (our target zone) to ~ 2 km. Further, the positive implications such results have for the island of O‘ahu are substantial - the shield stage of O'ahu's volcanoes ended 1-2 My earlier. However, O'ahu uses more electricity than the rest of the islands combined, and the utility recently called for 500-700MW of firm, dispatchable renewable electricity on O'ahu by 2033. In Phase 3, we also collected limited new encouraging groundwater data, and updated our thoughts on the probabilities of fluid and permeability at resource depths (Pr F = 1; Pr P = mostly unconstrained). Ultimately, we advocate for using our final probability of heat, and confidence in this probability, to drive the next phase of exploration. We contend further development of geothermal in Hawai‘i will enable the state to achieve its 100% renewable policy objective and Hawai'i to transition off of fossil fuels through geothermal discovery and development. The project not only produced a large amount of data and expanded the existing knowledge of Hawai'i's geothermal resources, but also produced publications, theses, presentations, core photos, datasets, media reports, television interviews, community events, and a blog. Students and new professionals benefitted from the project's hands-on research experiences and educational opportunities and earned awards and recognition.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Geology and Hydrothermal Alteration of the Raft River Geothermal System, Idaho

The Raft River geothermal system is located in southern Idaho, near the Utah-Idaho state boarder in the Raft River Valley. The field, which is owned and operated by U.S. Geothermal, has been selected as an EGS demonstration site by the U. S. Department of Energy. This paper summarizes ongoing geologic and petrologic investigations being conducted in support of this project. The reservoir is developed in fractured Proterozoic schist and quartzite, and Archean quartz monzonite cut by younger diabase intrusions. The basement complex was deformed during the mid Tertiary and covered by approximately 5000 ft of late Tertiary sedimentary and volcanic deposits. Listric normal faults of Cenozoic age disrupt the Tertiary deposits but do not offset the basement rocks. RRG-9, the target well, was drilled southwest of the main well field to a measured depth (MD) of 6089 ft. The well is deviated to the west and cased to a depth of 2316 ft MD. It penetrated the Proterozoic reservoir rocks at a depth of 5286 ft MD and encountered a maximum temperature of 139 degrees C. Bottomhole temperatures in other deep wells range from 133 to 149 degrees C. X-ray diffraction and thin section analyses are being conducted on samples from 5 deep wells, RRG- 1, 2, 3, 7 and 9, to determine the characteristics of the rock types and hydrothermal alteration within the geothermal system. Thin section analyses of samples from RRG-9 document the presence of strong alteration and brecciation at the contact between the Tertiary and basement complex. The Tertiary rocks consist of ash-flow tuffs, lava flows, tuffaceous siltstone, greywacke, and sandstone. No core is available from RRG-9 but core was obtained from RRG-3C. The sample is a brecciated and altered siltstone from the base of the Tertiary sequence and is similar to rocks at the base of the Tertiary deposits in RRG-9. Here, the results of thermal and quasi-static mechanical property measurements that were conducted on the core sample are presented.

Jones, Clay↗

Microstructural evolution in a precipitate-hardened (Fe 0.3 Ni 0.3 Mn 0.3 Cr 0.1 ) 94 Ti 2 Al 4 multi-principal element alloy during high-pressure torsion

Multi-principal element alloys demonstrate high strength, thermal stability, and irradiation resistance, making them excellent candidate materials for applications in nuclear reactors and other harsh environments. Some studies have examined the use of high-pressure torsion to strengthen MPEAs through grain size reduction and strain hardening. However, no studies have investigated the effect of HPT on secondary phases (precipitates) within an MPEA. Two alloys, (Fe 0.3 Ni 0.3 Mn 0.3 Cr 0.1 ) 94 Ti 2 Al 4 containing Ni(Ti, Al) B2 phase, and CrFe σ phase, and single-phase Fe 0.3 Ni 0.3 Mn 0.3 Cr 0.1 , were fabricated by casting and heat treatment. Both alloys were then processed with HPT to study microstructural evolution. Scanning electron microscopy (SEM) and transmission electron microscopy (TEM) were used to characterize the alloys before and after HPT processing. HPT processing produced a nanocrystalline structure in both alloys, but (Fe 0.3 Ni 0.3 Mn 0.3 Cr 0.1 ) 94 Ti 2 Al 4 exhibited a significantly smaller grain size and higher dislocation density than Fe 0.3 Ni 0.3 Mn 0.3 Cr 0.1 , with corresponding higher hardness. Before HPT, the (Fe 0.3 Ni 0.3 Mn 0.3 Cr 0.1 ) 94 Ti 2 Al 4 alloy consisted of large grain (~ 400 μm) and precipitates, including B2 of ~ 38 μm average size, B2 of ~ 0.7 μm average size, and small amounts of σ of ~ 1.5 μm average size. After HPT, the larger B2 precipitates were decreased in size and volume fraction, while the smaller B2 precipitates were completely dissolved; the σ precipitates appeared unaffected by HPT, likely due to their much higher hardness. Finally, observation of the B2 precipitate distribution along radial distance indicates that the strain caused the precipitates to fracture at intermediate strain (γ = 125) and dissolve at high strain (γ = 280).

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Phase-field modeling of thermally-grown oxide and damage evolution in environmental barrier coatings

Silicon carbide-based ceramic matrix composites protected by environmental barrier coatings (EBCs) present a promising materials solution for next-generation gas turbines. Developing more robust and efficient EBCs is therefore of significant technological importance. During the service in high-temperature oxidative environments, there is a thermally grown oxide (TGO) layer, spontaneously formed in the EBC system. TGO is recognized as a critical factor for the degradation and failure of EBCs, yet the detailed mechanisms of TGO growth and its effect on EBC failure remain unclear. In this study we develop a comprehensive chemo-mechano-phase-field model to simulate growth of the TGO in EBCs, factoring in creep and deformation, and especially the cracking behaviors. The volume expansion due to TGO growth and the resulting large inelastic deformation are addressed by using our recently developed, so-called incremental realization of inelastic deformation (IRID) algorithm, in combination with an adapted Hu-Chen spectral solver for elasticity. Simulations of TGO growth are performed considering different growth modes of TGOs determined mainly by the ratio of oxidant permeability in the topcoat to that in the TGO itself. Large-scale three-dimensional (3D) simulations are performed to model the formation of interconnecting vertical/channel cracks (often called ‘mud cracks’). The simulated crack morphology are in excellent agreement with the experimental observations from the literature. The simulations also provide insights into the cracking of EBCs and its dependence on the structure and constituent properties of the coating system. Furthermore, these results demonstrate the developed damage model can be a useful tool for design of more durable EBCs.

Cracking↗

Reduced diffusion and enhanced retention of multiple radionuclides from pore structure characterization of barrier materials for enhanced repository performance

Fluid flow and chemical transport in porous media are the macroscopic consequences of pore structure, which integrates geometry (e.g., pore size and surface area, pore-size distribution) and topology (e.g., pore connectivity). Low-permeability geological media whose pores are poorly interconnected will exhibit the characteristics of anomalous diffusion and sample size-dependent effective porosity, which will strongly impact long-term net diffusion and retention of radionuclides in geological repository settings involving different host rocks and barrier materials. A suite of innovative and complementary experimental approaches is utilized to study the microscopic pore structure and macroscopic fluid flow & chemical transport for a range of host rocks and barrier materials, in addition to standard clay minerals and reference rocks. With a particular focus on quantifying the presence and magnitude of “isolated” pores for a reduced effective porosity in low-permeability geomedia, the integrated methodologies for basic properties and pore structure characterization of these geomedia include X-ray diffraction, thin section petrography, grain size distribution, water immersion porosimetry after vacuum-pulling for full saturation, mercury intrusion porosimetry, nitrogen physisorption, scanning electron microscopy, X-ray computed tomography, and (ultra-)small angle neutron (X-ray) scattering. In addition, custom-designed gas diffusion, tracer recipe involving a range of anionic and cationic chemicals with subsequent analyses by laser ablation and inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry, along with batch sorption, column transport, and imbibition tests were conducted for coupled effects of pore structure and chemical retention/transport. From the perspectives of pore structure in conjunction with multiple and complementary approaches to examining a range of sample sizes under different observational scales, we find that the poor pore connectivity is prevalent in low-permeability media (mudstone and crystalline rock) that is related to geological processes (e.g., compaction, diagenesis and thermal maturation). For example, the deep and organic matter-rich mudstones have a much smaller effective porosity than the total porosity (as a result of poor pore connectivity) and associated diffusion coefficient, and the effective porosity & diffusion coefficients are also dependent upon the sample sizes used in the measurement. Similarly, most of the pore space in the shallow mudstone is also controlled by pore-throat diameters in the 5-50 nm range of intergranular pore types from its fine-grained nature, but with an overall good pore connectivity. However, the nm-sized pore space (physically pore-network architecture) and strong sorption capacities (chemical retention from clay minerals) of both shallow and deep mudstones lead to the synergistic retention of cationic radionuclides and their utilities as effective host rocks and barrier materials. Our unique approaches of studying how the micro-scale pore structure affect macro-scale fluid flow, diffusion & retention, and chemical transport produce improved mechanistic understanding, and realistic quantification, of diffusion and retention of typical radionuclides in a range of generic host rocks and barrier materials (clay/shale, salt, crystalline rock, and tuff), with the overall results leading to scientifically-based understanding of enhanced isolation (from both diffusion and retention) of radionuclides and improved confidence on the long-term performance of geological repository to store high-level radioactive wastes. In addition to the training of 25 undergraduates, graduates, and postdocs of UTA, the scientists (organizations) involved in performing this work (e.g., discussion, sample sharing, and operation of SANS and SAXS instruments) include Ed Matteo, Yifeng Wang, and Kristopher Kuhlman (Sandia National Laboratories), Jens Birkholzer, Liange Zheng, Tim Kneafsey, and Sharon Borglin (Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory), Mavrik Zavarin (Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory), Yukio Tachi and Yuta Fukatsu (Japan Atomic Energy Agency), Mieke de Craen (Euridice, Belgium), Markus Bleuel (NIST), Wei-Ren Chen, Gergely Nagy, Changwoo Do, William Heller, Larry Anovitz, and Kenneth Littrell (ORNL), as well as Jan Illvsky, Ivan Kuzmenko, Ju-Sang Park and Jon Almers (ANL). Key deliverables include a total of 13 peer-reviewed journal articles (nine published and three under review), 23 presentations at scientific conferences (AAPG, AAPG Southwest Section, AGU, Asian Clay Conference, GSA, GSA South-Central Section, IHLRWM, InterPore, International Conference on Chemistry and Migration Behavior of Actinides and Fission Products in the Geosphere, International Conference on Coupled Processes in Fractured Geological Media: Observation, Modeling and Application), and academic institutions (UTA, New Mexico State University; University of Poitiers, France; University of Helsinki, Finland; Uppsala University, Sweden; Istanbul Technical University, Turkey) and other organizations (Andra, France; Posiva Oy, Finland).

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Modeling and Simulation of Fuel Dispersal During the Loss-of-Coolant Accident

This document is the compilation of the milestone portion to a larger end of project NEUP report. The executive summary of the modeling portion is provided below: In the event of cladding rupture during a postulated LOCA in a pressurized water reactor, fuel particles, along with fission gases, can be expelled into the reactor core from the fractured fuel rod, a phenomenon referred to as fuel dispersal. The initial stage of fuel dispersal is strongly influenced by the high-pressure ejection of fuel fragments, the size and geometry of the ruptured cladding, and the depressurization history of the fuel rod during the postulated LOCA transient. Depending on the location of the burst orifice relative to the quench front, the dispersal event represents an intricate three-phase flow and heat transfer phenomenon, where high-temperature fuel particles carried by the fission gases interact with the coolant within the narrow subchannels of the fuel assemblies, inducing localized phase change. Given the unique multiphysics nature of this phenomena, the current study develops a dedicated computational framework to predict the mass distribution and cooling of dispersing fuel particles, facilitating post-accident assessment and management of the fuel assemblies. Considering the scale of nuclear reactor applications, a continuum three-fluid model is proposed for simulating the transport of solids within the reactor core. With high-temperature fuel fragments within the liquid media, nucleation sites inducing phase changes are dispersed within the flow domain. Coupled with the fact that the transient dispersal event occurs on different time scales than other three-phase flow applications, this study derives a time-averaged three-fluid flow model without losing generality. The assumptions regarding the continuum treatment of the solid phase and the modeling of fuel dispersal behavior are incorporated to simplify the governing equations and derive applicable closure relations. The computational validation of the model was conducted using adiabatic experimental results obtained from ongoing research at Oregon State University, focusing on characterizing fuel dispersal behavior during simulated LOCA conditions. Settlement characteristics of the solids, quantified by the probability distribution of equivalent particles, closely matched the probability density functions reported in experimental studies. The transport of fuel particles within a scaled 5 × 5 lattice of a pressurized-water reactor rod bundle geometry was modeled through a two-fluid Eulerian framework. The required boundary conditions were evaluated from the fuel performance code BISON in a postulated large-break LOCA scenario. The modeling framework considered solid fuel particles as granular matter, interacting with the gaseous dry steam phase and fission gases through the governing interfacial momentum exchange between the participating fluids. The simulation results provided the volume fraction of the solids obtained at the bottom surface of the enclosing tank geometry. Postulated LOCA leading to fuel dispersal phenomena involves the strong coupling between fuel thermomechanics, cladding deformation, thermal-hydraulics, and fuel particle transport. Incorporation of such a strong coupling in numerical simulation is performed by coupling the multiphysics solvers. In the case of fuel dispersal, a strong coupled simulation can be performed by coupling the BISON code for fuel performance, the TRACE code for system-level thermal hydraulics, and fuel particle transport in Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE). For such intricate infrastructure, the MOOSE Framework eases the data transfer between codes. The recent version of MOOSE has incorporated the Navier-Stokes module for the fluid flow. An exploratory exercise was done to gain familiarity with finite volume capabilities in the MOOSE framework to incorporate the Spalart-Allmaras (SA) turbulence model. New finite-volume and auxiliary kernels were introduced to assemble the SA transport equation, compute turbulent viscosity, and evaluate wall distance and diagnostic turbulence terms, fully integrated with existing Navier-Stokes modules. A turbulent lid-driven cavity at a Reynolds number of approximately 10,000 is used for verification. MOOSE shows the robust solver convergence and produces the turbulent features. But it underpredicts the velocity profile and turbulent quantities, emphasizing the need to develop improved SA near-wall treatments (e.g., low-Re corrections or wall functions) as a key direction for future work.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Geothermal Play-Fairway Analysis of Washington State Prospects: Final Report

The Washington State Geothermal Play-Fairway Analysis overcomes the exploration challenges posed by dense vegetation, glacial deposits, and extreme precipitation. The geothermal play-fairways we target are locations where heat, permeability, and saturated porosity are present in sufficient volume to provide adequate heat exchange at depths accessible by modern drilling technology. The three study areas lie along the Cascade Range magmatic arc and are near Mount Baker, Mount St. Helens, and the Wind River Valley. The seven-year project is divided into three phases. In Phase 1 we build on a previous statewide assessment of geothermal resources and develop an initial modeling approach. The results are a series of favorability, uncertainty, and risk maps for three targeted study areas. Based on these initial results, we collect new geologic and geophysical data to further refine our modeling and reduce exploration uncertainty in Phase 2. We improve the modeling method to handle the new data and update the favorability, uncertainty, and risk maps. We also update the conceptual geothermal resource models. In Phase 3 we validate our modeling approach by drilling two temperature-gradient holes and collecting and analyzing core, image logs, and new geochemistry. Our modeling approach improves on an earlier statewide method through a more-rigorous and detailed assessment of heat and permeability. Permeability potential is assessed through geomechanical modeling of the deformation that can generate and maintain reservoir porosity and permeability. Metrics to inform heat potential include temperature-gradient wells, which are sparse in Washington; proximity of Quaternary volcanic vents and young intrusive rock; spring temperature; and reservoir temperature inferred from geothermometry. We weight the individual components using an expert-guided approach known as the Analytical Hierarchy Process. During Phase 2 we also develop a fluid-filled fracture model, and an infrastructure model that helps to delineate areas which are more favorable for geothermal development based on proximity to transmission lines, elevation, land ownership and use restrictions, and availability of process water. New geologic and geophysical data is collected during Phase 2 in each of our three main study areas. At Mount Baker and north of Mount St. Helens we conduct 1:24,000-scale geologic mapping and lidar analysis to better constrain the location and character of surface faults; detailed mapping in the Wind River Valley was completed just prior to the start of this project. Ages of intrusive rocks are determined with 40 Ar/ 39 Ar geochronology, though all of our samples are Miocene or older. We collect ground based gravity observations (a total of 1,580 new stations) in all of our study areas and ground-based magnetic lines (a total of 93 km) at Mount Baker. These data are combined with existing gravity and aeromagnetic data and used to constrain fault locations and geometry. Two to three cross sections are constructed at each study area using the mapped surface geology and forward-modeling of the gravity and magnetic data; these cross sections form the basis for our updated conceptual models. We collect magnetotelluric surveys at Mount Baker and Mount St. Helens and these data are inverted to form a resistivity model from the surface to about 10 km depth; each model shows conductive zones that can be interpreted as upwelling geothermal fluids. At Mount St. Helens we deploy a passive seismic array and use the newly detected events to refine the location of the Saint Helens seismic zone. We also employ ambient-noise tomography to develop a detailed seismic-velocity model for the study area and use this model to help constrain our cross sections and conceptual model. Based on the new data collected during Phase 2—and our updated models—we develop a campaign of temperature-gradient holes and core analysis to validate our modeling in Phase 3. Drill hole MB76-31 is located near Little Park Creek, 11 km west-southwest of the summit of Mount Baker, and is 1,471 ft deep. About 410 ft of core from the lower portion of the hole—and image logs from ~175 ft below ground surface to the bottom—are collected and analyzed. Water samples are collected and processed for geothermometry. Drill hole MSH17-24 is located along upper Schultz Creek, 16 km north-northeast of Mount St. Helens and has core from 470 ft to the bottom at 1,053 ft. We did not collect image logs due to borehole stability concerns, but water samples are collected and analyzed for geothermometry. Repeat temperature-gradient measurements are made at both sites and thermal conductivity is measured from core samples. At MB76-31, the equilibrated temperature gradient of 64°C/km and calculated heat flow of 141–159 mW/m 2 is more than twice the regional average. Detailed mapping and analysis of the core, coupled with correlation to the image logs, indicates a history of permeability generation consistent with our predictions of high permeability. Because the site has high favorability in the Phase 2 model, we consider the results a positive validation of the modeling. At site MSH17-24, the equilibrated temperature gradient of ~15°C/km and calculated heat flow of 41–43 mW/m 2 are similar to regional. Geochemical analysis of the water samples indicates a meteoric source without any geothermal component. Detailed outcrop-based mapping of fault exposures near the drill site and analysis of image logs from nearby boreholes indicates a history of permeability generation consistent with our predictions. Because the site has low favorability in the Phase 2 model, we consider the results a positive validation of the modeling. Together, the two sites provide a reasonably positive validation of the Phase 2 modeling and should encourage future use of this modeling approach.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗