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At least 361 records · Page 20

Long-term Engagement in Authentic Research with NASA (LEARN): Innovative Practices Suggested by a New Model for Teacher Research Experiences

NASA's LEARN Project is an innovative program that provides long-term immersion in the practice of atmospheric science for middle and high school in-service teachers. Working alongside NASA scientists and using authentic NASA Science Mission Directorate research data, teachers develop individual research topics of interest during two weeks in the summer while on-site at NASA Langley. With continued, intensive mentoring by NASA scientists, the teachers further develop their research throughout the academic year through virtual group meetings and data team meetings mirroring scientific collaborations. At the end of the first year, LEARN teachers present scientific posters. The LEARN experience has had such an impact that multiple teachers from the first two cohorts have elected to continue their research. The LEARN project evaluation has provided insights into particularly effective elements of this new approach. Findings indicate that teachers? perceptions of the scientific enterprise have changed, and that LEARN provided substantial resources to help them take real-world research to their students. This presentation will focus on key factors from LEARN?s implementation that inform best practices for the incorporation of authentic scientific research into teacher professional development experiences. We suggest that these factors should be considered in the development of other such experiences, including: (1) The involvement of a single scientist as both the project leader/manager and the project scientist, to ensure that the project can meet teachers? needs. (2) An emphasis on framing and approaching scientific research questions, so that teachers can learn to evaluate the feasibility of studies based on scope, scale, and availability of data. (3) Long term, ongoing relationships where teachers and scientists work as collaborators, beyond the workshop ?mold.? (4) A focus on meeting the needs of individual teachers, whether their needs relate to elements of research and analysis, or to their tight professional schedules. (5) Above all, flexibility and patience. LEARN builds relationships with teachers slowly, over a long period of time. In the middle, life often intervenes. LEARN has emphasized that teachers? success is more important than deadlines or following a rigid protocol.

M Pippin↗

Global Estimates and Long-Term Trends of Fine Particulate Matter Concentrations (1998-2018)

Exposure to outdoor fine particulate matter (PM2.5) is a leading risk factor for mortality. We develop global estimates of annual PM2.5 concentrations and trends for 1998–2018 using advances in satellite observations, chemical transport modeling, and ground-based monitoring. Aerosol optical depths (AODs) from advanced satellite products including finer resolution, increased global coverage, and improved long-term stability are combined and related to surface PM2.5 concentrations using geophysical relationships between surface PM2.5 and AOD simulated by the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model with updated algorithms. The resultant annual mean geophysical PM2.5 estimates are highly consistent with globally distributed ground monitors (R2 = 0.81; slope = 0.90). Geographically weighted regression is applied to the geophysical PM2.5 estimates to predict and account for the residual bias with PM2.5 monitors, yielding even higher cross validated agreement (R2 = 0.90–0.92; slope = 0.90–0.97) with ground monitors and improved agreement compared to all earlier global estimates. The consistent long-term satellite AOD and simulation enable trend assessment over a 21 year period, identifying significant trends for eastern North America (−0.28 ± 0.03 μg/m3/yr), Europe (−0.15 ± 0.03 μg/m3/yr), India (1.13 ± 0.15 μg/m3/yr), and globally (0.04 ± 0.02 μg/m3/yr). The positive trend (2.44 ± 0.44 μg/m3/yr) for India over 2005–2013 and the negative trend (−3.37 ± 0.38 μg/m3/yr) for China over 2011–2018 are remarkable, with implications for the health of billions of people.

Melanie S. Hammer↗

Building a Bilingual Google Earth Engine Dashboard to Increase Accessibility to Long-term Time Series Remote Sensing Data for Monitoring Saline System Changes in Chile’s Atacama Desert

Saline systems, consisting of salt flats, ponds, and marshes, provide vital water resources to wildlife and communities in northern Chile’s Atacama Desert, one of the driest regions in the world. Mining is extensive in the Atacama, which contains 30% of the world’s lithium reserves and is abundant in potassium and boron. The groundwater that feeds into salt marshes and ponds is extracted in large volumes for mining operations, limiting the availability of water for ecosystems. However, identifying long-term and large-scale environmental impacts from local lithium mining on the saline systems is limited by region inaccessibility and terrain variability. Open access satellite imagery and cloud computing technology has made studying Atacama saline systems feasible and allowed for collaboration across different agencies and countries. The NASA DEVELOP Program partnered with Chile’s la Universidad de La Serena and Servicio Nacional de Geología y Minería (SERNAGEOMIN) to create the Saline Analysis Tool (SalT) in Google Earth Engine (GEE). SalT is used to analyze the extent and distribution of remote saline systems in the Atacama from 1986 to the present day. The tool filters Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper (TM) and Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI) data from GEE’s data catalog and creates a single composite image per year for analysis. Additional output analyses include land cover classification, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI) raster images that can be displayed on the map interface or exported. The tool can also generate time-lapse videos and charts displaying NDVI, NDWI, and land cover over time. A key feature of the tool is the use of a bilingual graphical user interface to make analysis accessible and customizable to different users’ needs—SalT provides options to select an analysis area, analysis time period, and outputs to display or export. The tool also incorporates new Earth observations as they are added to GEE’s catalog. The ability to easily visualize and analyze long-term remote sensing imagery will enable SERNAGEOMIN and la Universidad de la Serena to continually monitor changes in these saline systems and inform future land management policy.

NASA DEVELOP↗

MODIS and VIIRS Calibration and Characterization in Support of Producing Long-Term High-Quality Data Products

Terra and Aqua Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) have successfully operated since their launches in 1999 and 2002, respectively, and generated various data products to support the Earth remote sensing disciplines and users worldwide for their research activities and applications, including studies of the Earth system, and its changes over time and geographic regions. The MODIS data have also significantly contributed to the continuity of multi-decadal satellite data records and led to major advances in the Earth remote sensing field. The long-term data records from MODIS observations have been and will continue to be extended by the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) instruments, currently operated aboard the Suomi-National Polar-Orbiting Partnership (NPP) and NOAA-20 satellites. The data quality of satellite instruments strongly depends on their calibration accuracy and stability. In order to help scientists and users gain a better understanding of MODIS and VIIRS data quality, this paper provides an overview of their on-orbit calibration methodologies, approaches, and results derived from instrument on-board calibrators and lunar observations, as well as select Earth view targets. What is also discussed is the calibration consistency between MODIS and VIIRS and its potential impact on producing multi-sensor long-term data records. As illustrated, the overall performance of both MODIS and VIIRS continues to meet their design requirements.

MODIS↗

Long-Term, Non-Anthropogenic Groundwater Storage Changes Simulated by Three Global-Scale Hydrological Models

This study examined long-term, natural (i.e., excluding anthropogenic impacts) variability of groundwater storage worldwide. Groundwater storage changes were estimated by forcing three global-scale hydrological models with three 50+ year meteorological datasets. evaluation using in situ groundwater observations from the U.S. and terrestrial water storage derived from the Gravity Recovery and Climate experiment (GRACe) satellites showed that these models reasonably represented inter-annual variability of water storage, as indicated by correlations greater than 0.5 in most regions. Empirical orthogonal function analysis revealed influences of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on global groundwater storage. simulated groundwater storage, including its global average, exhibited trends generally consistent with that of precipitation. Global total (natural) groundwater storage decreased over the past 5–7 decades with modeled rates ranging from 0.01 to 2.18 mm year−1. this large range can be attributed in part to groundwater’s low frequency (inter-decadal) variability, which complicates identification of real long-term trends even within a 50+ year time series. Results indicate that non-anthropogenic variability in groundwater storage is substantial, making knowledge of it fundamental to quantifying direct human impacts on groundwater storage.

Bailing Li↗

The Value of Long-Term (40 years) Airborne Gamma Radiation SWE Record for Evaluating Three Observation-Based Gridded SWE Data Sets by Seasonal Snow and Land Cover Classifications

Observation‐based long‐term gridded snow water equivalent (SWE) products are important assets for hydrological and climate research. However, an evaluation of the currently available SWE products has been limited due to the lack of independent SWE data that extend over a large range of environmental conditions. In this study, three daily long‐term SWE products (Special Sensor Microwave Imager and Sounder [SSMI/S] SWE, GlobSnow‐2 SWE, and University of Arizona [UA] SWE) we reevaluated by seasonal snow cover and land cover classifications over the conterminous United States from1982 to 2017, using the historical airborne gamma radiation SWE observations (20,738 measurements).We found that there are similar patterns in SSMI/S and GlobSnow‐2 SWE when compared against the gamma SWE. However, GlobSnow‐2 SWE had better agreement with gamma SWE than SSMI/S SWE in some forested‐type classes and maritime and prairie snow classes. As compared to SSMI/S and GlobSnow‐2SWE, UA SWE has much better agreement with gamma SWE in all land cover types and snow classes. Tree cover and topographic heterogeneity affect the agreement between the gamma and gridded SWE and accuracy of gamma SWE itself with the largest differences typically occurring when the percent tree cover was 80% or higher, the terrain slope was steeper than 2.5°, and the elevation range exceeded 100 m. The results demonstrate the reliability of the UA SWE products and the benefits of the gamma radiation approach to measure SWE, especially in forested regions.

Eunsang Cho↗

Long-term Pulse Period Evolution of the Ultra-luminous X-ray Pulsar NGC 7793 P13

Ultra-luminous X-ray pulsars (ULXPs) provide a unique opportunity to study persistent super-Eddington accretion. Here we present the results of a long-term monitoring campaign of ULXP NGC 7793 P13, focusing on the pulse period evolution and the determination of the orbital ephemeris. Over our four year monitoring campaign with Swift, XMM-Newton, and NuSTAR, we measure a continuous spin-up with an average value of ̇P≈−3.8×10−11s s−1. We find that the strength of the spin-up is independent of the observed X-ray flux, indicating that despite a drop in observed flux in 2019, accretion onto the source has continued at largely similar rates. The source entered an apparent off-state in early 2020, which might have resulted in a change of the accretion geometry as no pulsations were found in observations in July/August 2020.We use the long-term monitoring to update the orbital ephemeris, as well as the periodicities seen in both the observed optical/UV and X-ray fluxes. We find that the optical/UV period is very stable over the years, with PUV=63.75+0.17−0.12d. The best-fit orbital period determined from our X-ray timing results is 64.86±0.19 d, almost a day longer than previously implied, and the X-ray flux period is65.21±0.15 d, slightly shorter than measured previously. The physical origin of these different flux periods is currently unknown. We study the hardness ratio of the XMM-Newton and NuSTAR data between 2013–2020 to search for indications of spectral changes. We find that the hardness ratios at high energies are very stable and not directly correlated with the observed flux. At lower energies we observe a small hardening with increased flux, which might indicate increased obscuration through outflows at higher luminosities. Comparing the changes in flux with the observed pulsed fraction, we find that the pulsed fraction is significantly higher at low fluxes. This seems to imply that the accretion geometry already changed before the source entered the deep off-state. We discuss possible scenarios to explain this behavior, which is likely driven by a precessing accretion disk.

Neutron stars↗

Off Earth Landing and Launch Pad Construction – A Critical Technology for Establishing a Long-Term Presence on Extraterrestrial Surfaces

Space Policy Directive 1 has refocused the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) to lead the return of humans to the Moon for long-term exploration and utilization. A long-term presence on the moon will require numerous lunar landings and launches to build up surface assets, rotate crew, and deliver resources to/from the moon. Interactions between landing/launch plumes and the unprepared surface cause regolith to be eroded and ejected at high velocities from beneath the vehicle. The associated ejecta elevates mission risks by obscuring sensors and human vision during landing; cratering/modifying the surface that the vehicle will land upon; and subjecting the vehicle, surrounding assets, and potentially orbital assets to impacts from high velocity dust particles. A method to mitigate risks stemming from landing/launch plume ejecta is to construct reusable landing/launch pads. A landing/launch pad can provide a known landing/launch surface, minimize ejecta, protect assets from liberated particles, and provide protection in case of a landing/launch anomaly. This presentation will summarize previous work towards construction of off-Earth landing/launch pads and identify key technology gaps. Additionally, this presentation establishes metrics for comparison of pad construction technologies and trades current approaches. The overall objective of this paper is to baseline the state of the art of off-Earth landing/launch pad construction technologies and serve as the starting point for further technical development.

Landing & Launch Pad↗

Long -Term Architecture Development For The Moon And M

Developing an enterprise-level architecture encompassing future human-robotic science and exploration at the Moon and Mars requires a visionary approach that ensures NASA is responsive to national priorities and global science and technology advancement objectives. While the initial capabilities needed to return humans to the Moon may be well understood, NASA is still formulating a long-term infrastructure at the Moon and working to narrow the trade space for the first human missions to Mars. This paper will focus on the formulation and current status of engineering and design applications for a long-term and robust lunar architecture that will implement the Artemis Base Camp concept, including pre-formulation activities and elements currently in formulation. Authors will demonstrate how the Moon-to-Mars campaign approach fosters commonality of requirements and standards across individual mission elements, as well as multi-destination systems and operations, to reduce risk and encourage healthy competition in the growing space market. Among the Artemis Base Camp elements discussed will be multiple surface mobility elements, a fixed, anchoring surface habitat, fission surface power, and an in-situ resource development pilot plant. The narrative will clearly illustrate the direct evolution of the base camp elements to a minimal Mars architecture concept, and also outline unique development efforts that will be required in the next decade to make it possible to send humans to the Red Planet as early as the 2030s.

Greg Chavers↗

Evaluating Long-Term Changes in Atmospheric Ozone

Ozonesondes have made inexpensive, accurate measurements of ozone from the ground to 30km for more than 50 years. The data are used extensively for trend analyses and for evaluation of satellite and model data products, and are also part of climatologies that are used as a priori data for satellite retrievals. They are essential as a transfer standard when merging shorter satellite-derived time series, and are the most important source of trend-quality long-term records below about 18 km. The importance of long-term ozonesonde records as a stable reference has led to increased attention to quantifying uncertainties and changes in ozonesonde data. Based on past intercomparison data, ECC sondes show a modest (~1-5%) high bias with respect to UV-absorption measurements (including MOZAIC-IAGOS) in the troposphere, with an uncertainty of 5%, but no evidence of a change with time. Other sonde types show an increase of 5-20% in sensitivity to tropospheric ozone from 1970-1995. Agreement in the stratosphere is much better. In the past 20 years ozonesonde precision has improved by a factor of 2, primarily through the adoption of strict standard operating procedures. In addition, many of the most important ozonesonde records have been re-evaluated and corrected, and detailed estimates made of their biases and uncertainties. Corrections to historical data for known issues may reduce biases but simultaneously introduce additional uncertainties. The uncertainty budget for the ozone partial pressure reading has contributions from stoichiometry, cell background current, pump efficiency and temperature, sensing solution type and volume. The much-discussed “background current” has recently been shown to be primarily related to reaction stoichiometry. Several quality assurance issues remain, but are tractable problems that can be addressed with further research. This will be required if the present goal of better than 5% overall uncertainty throughout the global ozonesonde network is to be achieved. Finally, the importance of regular sonde intercomparisons, employing UV photometers traceable to the modern UV-absorption standard, and of regular comparison of operational station records with multiple satellite sensors, is emphasized.

Ozonesondes↗

Efficient Implementation for Unitary Coupled Cluster State Preparation for Near-Term Quantum Computers

Unitary coupled cluster theory (UCC) is a common wave function ansatz for quantum simulation of molecular electronic structure using the variational quantum eigenvalue solver (VQE). Even for small molecules using a double-ζ basis, the number of variational parameters required to minimize the electronic energy (i.e., optimize the circuit) is large and beyond the reach of current quantum computers. For example, a circuit simulating C2 using the UCCSD ansatz and the cc-pVDZ basis set with frozen-core will require over 10,000 variational parameters and a Hilbert space of over 10^8 determinants. To make progress on simulating such molecular systems on near-term quantum computers, we explore how much of the optimization can be approximately prepared with classical simulation while reducing the number of optimization steps performed on a quantum device. Recently, Chen, Cheng, and Freericks [J. Chem. Theory Comput. 2021, 17, 841-847] presented an algorithm for the factorized form of the UCC ansatz that allows for efficient UCC optimizations on classical hardware. We flip the algorithm around and use it to prepare approximate quantum circuits for systems that require a large number of qubits to represent. We will present results from our implementation and discuss strategies for incorporating this implementation for algorithms involving near-term quantum computers.

J Wayne Mullinax↗

The Origins of Long-Term Variability in Martian Upper Atmospheric Densities

We quantify and interpret the long-term variability of dayside Martian upper thermosphere and lower exosphere densities within 180–275 km altitudes. Atmospheric CO2, N2, O, and Ar densities are from NASA Mars Atmosphere and Volatile EvolutioN (MAVEN) observations during the time period of 2015–2020 near solar minimum. These neutral measurements, together with contemporaneous solar irradiance measurements at Mars, enable disentanglement of the orbital effect (due to the annual Sun-Mars distance change with solar longitude) and the solar extreme ultraviolet (EUV) effect in atmospheric density variations. The relative importance of these two effects, which is obtained using a statistical method of Dominance Analysis, reveals the competition between the indirect effect of solar infrared (via the upward coupling from the middle atmosphere) and the direct effect of solar EUV (due to local heating). Our results show that, unlike the orbital effect which is relatively constant at low altitudes and then decreases with increasing altitude, the solar EUV effect nearly monotonically increases. These two effects are comparable at high altitudes (about 240/270/205 km for CO2/N2/O). This analysis is extended to include long-term exospheric mass density estimates near 400 km from Mars Global Surveyor and Mars Odyssey data, with a focus on representative solar cycle phases of solar minimum and maximum. It is found that near 400 km, the orbital effect is always a key driver regardless of the solar cycle phase, while the solar EUV effect plays a minor role during solar minimum and is greatly enhanced and slightly exceeds the orbital effect during solar maximum.

Xiaohua Fang↗

Toward Consistent Long-term Records of Cloud Fraction from MODIS and VIIRS for CERES

In order to produce a long-term and stable climate record of Earth’s energy budget for NASA’s Clouds and Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES) project, a consistent cloud fraction record across different measurement platforms­­ is a crucial first step. As Aqua satellite is approaching the end of its operational lifetime, NOAA-20 VIIRS observations on the JPSS-2 spacecraft will be used for cloud detection to continue the long-term Earth energy budget record. Two steps are designed to achieve this goal. The first step is a quick approach that revises the CERES NOAA-20 VIIRS Edition 1 A (CV Ed1A) cloud mask to incorporate Cross-track Infrared Sounder (CrIS) water vapor and CO_2 channels into the VIIRS cloud mask (CV Ed1B) to produce a consistent cloud fraction with CERES MODIS Edition 4 (CM Ed4) to avoid potential discontinuity when Aqua orbit drifts beyond tolerance before the next Edition is completed. The second step is to develop, as part of CERES next edition (Ed5), a unified MODIS and VIIRS cloud mask using common channels to produce consistent cloud products with improved radiative transfer models, refined clear sky predictions, new GMAO reanalysis products, and the latest radiance collections of MODIS and VIIRS data. This poster will present cloud fraction comparison between CV Ed1B and CM Ed4, as well as the preliminary results of ongoing Ed5 including pixel level cloud mask results, monthly global cloud fraction differences between MODIS and VIIRS (consistency), and initial validation using CALIPSO data (accuracy).

CERES↗

The Long-Term Evolution of the Atmosphere of Venus: Processes and Feedback Mechanisms

This work reviews the long-term evolution of the atmosphere of Venus, and modulation of its composition by interior/exterior cycling. The formation and evolution of Venus’s atmosphere, leading to contemporary surface conditions, remain hotly debated topics, and involve questions that tie into many disciplines. We explore these various inter-related mechanisms which shaped the evolution of the atmosphere, starting with the volatile sources and sinks. Going from the deep interior to the top of the atmosphere, we describe volcanic out-gassing, surface-atmosphere interactions, and atmosphere escape. Furthermore, we address more complex aspects of the history of Venus, including the role of Late Accretion impacts, how magnetic field generation is tied into long-term evolution, and the implications of geochemical and geodynamical feedback cycles for atmospheric evolution. We highlight plausible end-member evolutionary pathways that Venus could have followed, from accretion to its present-day state, based on modeling and observations. In a first scenario, the planet was desiccated by atmospheric escape during the magma ocean phase. In a second scenario, Venus could have harbored surface liquid water for long periods of time, until its temperate climate was destabilized and it entered a runaway greenhouse phase. In a third scenario, Venus’s inefficient outgassing could have kept water inside the planet, where hy- drogen was trapped in the core and the mantle was oxidized. We discuss existing evidence and future observations/missions required to refine our understanding of the planet’s history and of the complex feedback cycles between the interior, surface, and atmosphere that have been operating in the past, present or future of Venus.

Venus↗

Assessing the Use of UAS-Related Terms in ASRS Using Seed Topic Modeling

Context: The NASA Aviation Safety Reporting System (ASRS) is a voluntary confidential system that disseminates reports received from personnel involved in aviation operations after de-identifying them. These reports are used by the community to improve overall aviation system safety. Aim: We propose and execute an experiment to assess the use of seed term topic modeling over the database narratives to identify Unmanned Aircraft System (UAS) reports. The use of seed term topic modeling enables users to identify groups of conceptually similar narratives associated to a topic of their interest. Method: We use a collection of narratives, expert-selected words, and report metadata that separates UAS from non-UAS reports to assess if seed topic modeling can be used to improve ASRS searches. Results: For simpler queries, seed topic search observes a higher recall and lower precision than the existing DBOL (DataBase OnLine) search in operation. However, the best results are obtained when seed topic search is used as a search suggestion system to be executed on the DBOL. Conclusion: Utilizing a combination of both the existing method and the proposed method, users can expand their search vocabulary about subjects of interest while improving the quality of results.

Text Mining↗

Assessing the Use of UAS-Related Terms in ASRS using Seeds for Topic Modeling

Context: The NASA Aviation Safety Reporting System (ASRS) is a voluntary confidential system that disseminates reports received from personnel involved in aviation operations after de-identifying them. These reports are used by the community to improve overall aviation system safety. Aim: We propose and execute an experiment to assess the use of seed term topic modeling over the database narratives to identify Unmanned Aircraft System (UAS) reports. The use of seed term topic modeling enables users to identify groups of conceptually similar narratives associated to a topic of their interest. Method: We use a collection of narratives, expert-selected words, and report metadata that separates UAS from non-UAS reports to assess if seed topic modeling can be used to improve ASRS searches. Results: For simpler queries, seed topic search observes a higher recall and lower precision than the existing DBOL (DataBase OnLine) search in operation. However, the best results are obtained when seed topic search is used as a search suggestion system to be executed on the DBOL. Conclusion: Utilizing a combination of both the existing method and the proposed method, users can expand their search vocabulary about subjects of interest while improving the quality of results.

LDA↗

Medium-Range River Flood Forecasts Using a Long Short-Term Memory Network

River flooding and the impacts are a concern for decision makers throughout the United States. Accurate medium-range forecasts (~3-7 days) are critical for providing advanced outlooks to emergency management officials. Unfortunately, accurately forecasting rainfall-runoff and the subsequent rise and fall within rivers remain a challenge in hydrological modeling. While complex physical modeling systems are the standard for representing the hydrological processes, they are computationally demanding and can require extensive calibration. Further, uncertainties remain in the model parameters and input data. The use of machine learning can reduce some of the computational demand while maintaining high accuracy. Therefore, this project makes use of a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network which explicitly accounts for the time-dependent nature of rainfall-runoff modeling. The developed LSTM was trained to predict river gauge height, or stage height, based on time-lagged input features which include: gauge height to initialize the model, the NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition Center’s instance of the Land Information System (SPoRT-LIS) relative soil moisture to describe the rainfall infiltration rate, and 6-hr Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor quantitative precipitation estimate (MRMS QPE). The developed LSTM based system is then used to produce 7-day forecasts with a 6-hr temporal resolution using three different quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPF) from the NWS’s Weather Prediction Center (WPC), the NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS) model and the National Blend of Models (NBM). This trained modeling system has been implemented as an experimental product at over 100 different rivers in collaboration with at multiple National Weather Service (NWS) Forecast Offices and River Forecast Centers (RFC) across the eastern half of the United States. The developed LSTM model achieved average Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) 0.89 higher than the equivalent medium-range National Water Model ensemble member forecast over a 7-day forecast. In addition to the initial development and evaluation, this project has continued to expand. While the initial model was developed for precipitation dominated basins, expansion of the project has taken it to basins effected by snow melt. This presentation will provide an overview of the project with focus on recent developments on incorporating snow melt processes into the model.

Andrew T. White↗

Spitzer’s Last Look at Extragalactic Explosions: Long-Term Evolution of Interacting Supernovae

Here we present new, yet final, mid-infrared (mid-IR) data for supernovae (SNe) based on measurements with the Spitzer Space Telescope. Comparing our recent 3.6 and 4.5 μm photometry with previously published mid-IR and further multiwavelength data sets, we were able to draw some conclusions about the origin and heating mechanism of the dust in these SNe or in their environments, as well as about possible connection with circumstellar matter (CSM) originating from pre-explosion mass-loss events in the progenitor stars. We also present new results regarding both certain SN classes and single objects. We highlight the mid-IR homogeneity of SNe Ia-CSM, which may be a hint of their common progenitor type and of their basically uniform circumstellar environments. Regarding single objects, it is worth highlighting the late-time interacting Type Ib SNe 2003gk and 2004dk, for which we present the first-ever mid-IR data, which seem to be consistent with clues of ongoing CSM interaction detected in other wavelength ranges. Our current study suggests that long-term mid-IR follow-up observations play a key role in a better understanding of both pre- and post-explosion processes in SNe and their environments. While Spitzer is not available anymore, the expected unique data from the James Webb Space Telescope, as well as long-term near-IR follow-up observations of dusty SNe, can bring us closer to the hidden details of this topic.

Supernovae↗