Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “technology modeling”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 361 records · Page 20

The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP): Protocols and Pilot Studies

The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) is a major international effort linking the climate, crop, and economic modeling communities with cutting-edge information technology to produce improved crop and economic models and the next generation of climate impact projections for the agricultural sector. The goals of AgMIP are to improve substantially the characterization of world food security due to climate change and to enhance adaptation capacity in both developing and developed countries. Analyses of the agricultural impacts of climate variability and change require a transdisciplinary effort to consistently link state-of-the-art climate scenarios to crop and economic models. Crop model outputs are aggregated as inputs to regional and global economic models to determine regional vulnerabilities, changes in comparative advantage, price effects, and potential adaptation strategies in the agricultural sector. Climate, Crop Modeling, Economics, and Information Technology Team Protocols are presented to guide coordinated climate, crop modeling, economics, and information technology research activities around the world, along with AgMIP Cross-Cutting Themes that address uncertainty, aggregation and scaling, and the development of Representative Agricultural Pathways (RAPs) to enable testing of climate change adaptations in the context of other regional and global trends. The organization of research activities by geographic region and specific crops is described, along with project milestones. Pilot results demonstrate AgMIP's role in assessing climate impacts with explicit representation of uncertainties in climate scenarios and simulations using crop and economic models. An intercomparison of wheat model simulations near Obregón, Mexico reveals inter-model differences in yield sensitivity to [CO2] with model uncertainty holding approximately steady as concentrations rise, while uncertainty related to choice of crop model increases with rising temperatures. Wheat model simulations with midcentury climate scenarios project a slight decline in absolute yields that is more sensitive to selection of crop model than to global climate model, emissions scenario, or climate scenario downscaling method. A comparison of regional and national-scale economic simulations finds a large sensitivity of projected yield changes to the simulations' resolved scales. Finally, a global economic model intercomparison example demonstrates that improvements in the understanding of agriculture futures arise from integration of the range of uncertainty in crop, climate, and economic modeling results in multi-model assessments.

Rosenzweig, C.↗

The “Gearamid” Model: Transforming NASA Langley’s Role in the Aerospace Technology Ecosystem

NASA’s operating environment is evolving: numerous new emerging technologies are converging to create breakthrough solutions, many nontraditional players are partnering to create those solutions, and a diverse array of new public-private funding models are being employed. A team at NASA’s Langley Research Center (LaRC) developed a model to describe the challenges that must be addressed for an emerging breakthrough technology to penetrate the appropriate market sector, and how all the players in the relevant ecosystem can collaborate to accelerate the market infusion process. This model, which the team dubbed the “Gearamid,” originated from a narrower study to determine what LaRC should do to capitalize on and advance autonomous technology as a “game changer” in the civil aerospace domain. The elements in the original version of the Gearamid depict the various challenges that need to be addressed as an autonomous technology proceeds from initial development to market infusion. In addition, the Gearamid indicates the “actors” best suited to address each challenge element. The study team noted that all challenge elements in the Gearamid must be worked concurrently to assure successful infusion of autonomous solutions. The team also found that NASA expertise naturally positions Agency organizations—including LaRC—to lead contributions that address certain challenge elements and to play a supplemental role in other areas where entities external to NASA are actively working and investing to solve challenges. Furthermore, the team concluded that NASA can play a leadership role in coordinating efforts of the diverse entities across the civil aerospace community. After determining the center’s optimal role in the autonomous technology development ecosystem, the study team then extrapolated the Gearamid model for autonomous technologies into a broader, more general model depicting the challenge elements that must be overcome to develop and infuse any emerging technology. LaRC has embraced the Gearamid model and is using it to drive changes that will transform the center and allow it to function optimally in the evolving landscape. Given LaRC’s successes, the study team suggests that other organizations may also be able to use the Gearamid model to inform future planning/strategy efforts.

Jill M Marlowe↗

Business Intelligence Modeling in Launch Operations

This technology project is to advance an integrated Planning and Management Simulation Model for evaluation of risks, costs, and reliability of launch systems from Earth to Orbit for Space Exploration. The approach builds on research done in the NASA ARC/KSC developed Virtual Test Bed (VTB) to integrate architectural, operations process, and mission simulations for the purpose of evaluating enterprise level strategies to reduce cost, improve systems operability, and reduce mission risks. The objectives are to understand the interdependency of architecture and process on recurring launch cost of operations, provide management a tool for assessing systems safety and dependability versus cost, and leverage lessons learned and empirical models from Shuttle and International Space Station to validate models applied to Exploration. The systems-of-systems concept is built to balance the conflicting objectives of safety, reliability, and process strategy in order to achieve long term sustainability. A planning and analysis test bed is needed for evaluation of enterprise level options and strategies for transit and launch systems as well as surface and orbital systems. This environment can also support agency simulation .based acquisition process objectives. The technology development approach is based on the collaborative effort set forth in the VTB's integrating operations. process models, systems and environment models, and cost models as a comprehensive disciplined enterprise analysis environment. Significant emphasis is being placed on adapting root cause from existing Shuttle operations to exploration. Technical challenges include cost model validation, integration of parametric models with discrete event process and systems simulations. and large-scale simulation integration. The enterprise architecture is required for coherent integration of systems models. It will also require a plan for evolution over the life of the program. The proposed technology will produce long-term benefits in support of the NASA objectives for simulation based acquisition, will improve the ability to assess architectural options verses safety/risk for future exploration systems, and will facilitate incorporation of operability as a systems design consideration, reducing overall life cycle cost for future systems. The future of business intelligence of space exploration will focus on the intelligent system-of-systems real-time enterprise. In present business intelligence, a number of technologies that are most relevant to space exploration are experiencing the greatest change. Emerging patterns of set of processes rather than organizational units leading to end-to-end automation is becoming a major objective of enterprise information technology. The cost element is a leading factor of future exploration systems.

Bardina, Jorge E.↗

Turbulence program for propulsion systems

Program goals at the Center for Modeling of Turbulence and Transition (CMOTT), NASA Lewis Research Center, are (1) to develop reliable turbulence (including bypass transition) and combustion models for complex flows in propulsion systems and (2) to integrate developed models into deliverable CFD tools for propulsion systems in collaboration with industry. This viewgraph presentation covers the following topics: development of turbulence and combustion models; collaboration with industry and technology transfer; isotropic eddy viscosity models; algebraic Reynolds stress models; scalar turbulence models; second order closure models; multiple scale k-epsilon models; and PDF modeling of turbulent reacting flows.

Shih, Tsan-Hsing↗

The Solar Umbrella: A Low-cost Demonstration of Scalable Space Based Solar Power

Within the past decade, the Space Solar Power (SSP) community has seen an influx of stakeholders willing to entertain the SSP prospect of potentially boundless, base-load solar energy. Interested parties affiliated with the Department of Defense (DoD), the private sector, and various international entities have all agreed that while the benefits of SSP are tremendous and potentially profitable, the risk associated with developing an efficient end to end SSP harvesting system is still very high. In an effort to reduce the implementation risk for future SSP architectures, this study proposes a system level design that is both low-cost and seeks to demonstrate the furthest transmission of wireless power to date. The overall concept is presented and each subsystem is explained in detail with best estimates of current implementable technologies. Basic cost models were constructed based on input from JPL subject matter experts and assume that the technology demonstration would be carried out by a federally funded entity. The main thrust of the architecture is to demonstrate that a usable amount of solar power can be safely and reliably transmitted from space to the Earth's surface; however, maximum power scalability limits and their cost implications are discussed.

climate change↗

Updating High-Order Aeroservoelastic Models from Low-Order System Identification Results

Estimating aircraft models from test data requires several simplifying assumptions that introduce biases into the parameter estimates. In this paper, these biases are defined and a method for estimating the biases is discussed. Having an estimate of the bias allows the parameters estimated from test to be integrated into a high-order model. The Integrated Adaptive Wing Technology Maturation (IAWTM) wind tunnel model is discussed and the bias is demonstrated for one of the testing configurations. The methodology was able to estimate these biases and apply corrections to high-order aeroelastic models to improve the fit to test data. The consideration of the biases allows more meaningful comparisons and avoids the erroneous differences between pretest predictions and the fitted model.

Jeffrey Ouellette↗

Updating High-Order Aeroservoelastic Models from Low-Order System Identification Results

Estimating aircraft models from test data requires several simplifying assumptions that introduce biases into the parameter estimates. In this paper, these biases are defined and a method for estimating the biases is discussed. Having an estimate of the bias allows the parameters estimated from test to be integrated into a high-order model. The Integrated Adaptive Wing Technology Maturation (IAWTM) wind tunnel model is discussed and the bias is demonstrated for one of the testing configurations. The methodology was able to estimate these biases and apply corrections to high-order aeroelastic models to improve the fit to test data. The consideration of the biases allows more meaningful comparisons and avoids the erroneous differences between pretest predictions and the fitted model.

Jeffrey Ouellette↗

US Clean Energy Sector and the Opportunity for Modeling and Simulation

The following paper sets forth the current understanding of the US clean energy demand and opportunity. As clean energy systems come online and technology is developed, modeling and simulation of these complex energy programs provides an untapped business opportunity. The US Department of Defense provides a great venue for developing new technology in the energy sector because it is demanding lower fuel costs, more energy efficiencies in its buildings and bases, and overall improvements in its carbon footprint. These issues coupled with the security issues faced by foreign dependence on oil will soon bring more clean energy innovations to the forefront (lighter batteries for soldiers, alternative fuel for jets, energy storage systems for ships, etc).

Inge, Carole Cameron↗

Modeling and Simulation of Tank Pressure Control using Zero-Boiloff Active Thermal Control for LOXSAT Technology Demonstration Mission

To-date, research and modeling of cryogenic fluid management technologies (CFM) for spaceflight has been limited to ground tests, short-duration zero-g simulations (e.g. drop towers), and small-scale experiments on-orbit. There has not been a large-scale flight demonstration of a flight-like system. As future NASA missions to take humans further from Earth will require large, in-space cryogenic propulsion vehicles, it is imperative to begin collecting flight data for these systems to accurately model and design future vehicles. To meet this goal, NASA awarded tipping point technology demonstration awards to Eta Space, Lockheed Martin, Space Exploration Technologies (SpaceX), and United Launch Alliance (ULA) to demonstrate on-orbit storage and transfer of cryogenic propellant. For its award, Eta Space is developing LOXSAT-1. It is a small satellite that will be launched on a Rocket Lab Electron rocket. The spacecraft consists of a Rocket Lab Photon spacecraft bus with a primary payload of a spherical liquid oxygen (LOX) storage tank with thermodynamic control systems. The primary objective of the mission is to demonstrate zero-boil-off storage of liquid oxygen. To accomplish this objective, the payload is equipped with an active thermal control system fluid loop that consists of propellant management device (PMD), positive-displacement pump, heat exchanger connected to a cryocooler, and a spray bar mixing injector. When the fluid loop is operating, fluid is drawn from the tank by the PMD and pumped through the heat exchanger, lowering the fluid temperature below the fluid temperature in the tank. This subcooled liquid is then injected back into the tank through the spray bar. The subcooled injected liquid has two effects. If it is sprayed into the ullage space, the injected liquid will form into jets or droplets and exchange heat with the ullage gas. This will cool and condense the gas, reducing the pressure in the tank. Additionally, the liquid that is not sprayed through the ullage, as well as any remaining liquid spray from the ullage, will rejoin the liquid mass of the tank, lowering the bulk temperature of the liquid. These combines effects provide for zero-boil off pressure control by lowering the tank pressure and the liquid saturation pressure simultaneously, ensuring the liquid stays subcooled. To model these complex mechanics and predict the performance of the active thermal control system, NASA is providing Eta Space with 3 parallel models of the tank. The approach of providing 3 different models allows for cross-checking and comparisons between the three to better understand how different modeling assumptions and selection semi-empirical factors affects the modeling result. Additionally, developing 3 models provides three different schemes for numerical simulation, providing confidence that results depict real physical phenomenon and not numerical quirks of the program. Within the tank thermodynamics, there are two primary areas of heat transfer we concern ourselves with: the heat transfer between the ullage space and the droplet spray, and between the ullage space and bulk liquid. For the droplet heat transfer, there are multiple sets of assumptions that can be made and correlations that can be used. Currently, two working models - the TankSIM model and Easy5 model – provide for an overview of the different approaches available. The TankSIM model and Easy5 model use two different models for droplet heating and evaporation that illustrate how the models use different types of mechanisms to arrive at the same answer. For the TankSIM model, droplets are treated as spheres of constant radius. Heat is transferred from the ullage to the droplet and warms the droplet until it reaches saturation, then the droplet begins evaporating and reducing its radius and mass. To calculate the heat transfer coefficient between the droplet and ullage, the Ranz-Marshall correlation is used. To determine the number of droplets in the ullage, a resident mass approach is used. This approach averages the number of droplets such that residuals at the start-up and shut-off of the spray bar cancel out. This same approach is used in the Easy5 model. The GFSSP model implements a linked list to track individual droplet “nodes” within the model. For the Easy5 model, the droplet is assumed to have an interface at a temperature equal to the saturation temperature corresponding to the pressure of the gas phase. The heat transfer from the gas to the interface and the interface to the droplet bulk is then calculated, and the net mass transfer between the droplet and interface is determined by performing an energy balance across the interface. For the gas side of the interface, the Ranz-Marshall correlation is used. For the liquid side of the interface, a variety of correlations were tried, including Kronig and Brink (1950) and effective conductivity models. As a result of these assumptions, the Easy5 model currently predicts faster depressurization, as at saturated vapor conditions, the heat transfer coeffect on the liquid side for the Easy5 model is greater than the heat transfer coefficient predicted by Ranz-Marshall used in the TankSIM code. This greater heat flux translates into faster condensation of the saturated ullage gas. At the bulk liquid to ullage interface, the models are in much closer agreement. Both models model the ullage as a sphere centered within the bulk liquid in the tank, and both use the energy-jumping boundary condition to model heat and mass transfer across the interface. There are slight differences in how the interface temperature is calculated, however. The Easy5 model assumes the temperature of the interface is equal to the saturation temperature associated with the pressure of the gas phase. The TankSIM model calculates this temperature with Alabovskii’s equation, which provides a correction factor for interface temperatures. Analysis tasks are focused on determining rates of depressurization within the tank during active cooling operation. To maintain net positive suction head at the pump inlet, the tank pressure cannot fall faster than the saturation pressure associated with the temperature of the bulk liquid. Additionally, there is interest in analyzing the performance of the loop at different pump speeds and cryocooler input powers. Adjusting the flowrate affects both the performance of the heat exchanger between the cryocooler and pumped liquid, and the heat transfer between the droplet spray and the ullage. Ideally, a pump speed and cryocooler power can be selected that will allow the tank to operate in zero-boil-off mode with a very narrow range of storage pressure.

zero boil-off↗

Investigating the Simulink Auto-Coding Process

Model based program design is the most clear and direct way to develop algorithms and programs for interfacing with hardware. While coding "by hand" results in a more tailored product, the ever-growing size and complexity of modern-day applications can cause the project work load to quickly become unreasonable for one programmer. This has generally been addressed by splitting the product into separate modules to allow multiple developers to work in parallel on the same project, however this introduces new potentials for errors in the process. The fluidity, reliability and robustness of the code relies on the abilities of the programmers to communicate their methods to one another; furthermore, multiple programmers invites multiple potentially differing coding styles into the same product, which can cause a loss of readability or even module incompatibility. Fortunately, Mathworks has implemented an auto-coding feature that allows programmers to design their algorithms through the use of models and diagrams in the graphical programming environment Simulink, allowing the designer to visually determine what the hardware is to do. From here, the auto-coding feature handles converting the project into another programming language. This type of approach allows the designer to clearly see how the software will be directing the hardware without the need to try and interpret large amounts of code. In addition, it speeds up the programming process, minimizing the amount of man-hours spent on a single project, thus reducing the chance of human error as well as project turnover time. One such project that has benefited from the auto-coding procedure is Ramses, a portion of the GNC flight software on-board Orion that has been implemented primarily in Simulink. Currently, however, auto-coding Ramses into C++ requires 5 hours of code generation time. This causes issues if the tool ever needs to be debugged, as this code generation will need to occur with each edit to any part of the program; additionally, this is lost time that could be spent testing and analyzing the code. This is one of the more prominent issues with the auto-coding process, and while much information is available with regard to optimizing Simulink designs to produce efficient and reliable C++ code, not much research has been made public on how to reduce the code generation time. It is of interest to develop some insight as to what causes code generation times to be so significant, and determine if there are architecture guidelines or a desirable auto-coding configuration set to assist in streamlining this step of the design process for particular applications. To address the issue at hand, the Simulink coder was studied at a foundational level. For each different component type made available by the software, the features, auto-code generation time, and the format of the generated code were analyzed and documented. Tools were developed and documented to expedite these studies, particularly in the area of automating sequential builds to ensure accurate data was obtained. Next, the Ramses model was examined in an attempt to determine the composition and the types of technologies used in the model. This enabled the development of a model that uses similar technologies, but takes a fraction of the time to auto-code to reduce the turnaround time for experimentation. Lastly, the model was used to run a wide array of experiments and collect data to obtain knowledge about where to search for bottlenecks in the Ramses model. The resulting contributions of the overall effort consist of an experimental model for further investigation into the subject, as well as several automation tools to assist in analyzing the model, and a reference document offering insight to the auto-coding process, including documentation of the tools used in the model analysis, data illustrating some potential problem areas in the auto-coding process, and recommendations on areas or practices in the current Ramses model that should be further investigated. Several skills were required to be built up over the course of the internship project. First and foremost, my Simulink skills have improved drastically, as much of my experience had been modeling electronic circuits as opposed to software models. Furthermore, I am now comfortable working with the Simulink Auto-coder, a tool I had never used until this summer; this tool also tested my critical thinking and C++ knowledge as I had to interpret the C++ code it was generating and attempt to understand how the Simulink model affected the generated code. I had come into the internship with a solid understanding of Matlab code, but had done very little in using it to automate tasks, particularly Simulink tasks; along the same lines, I had rarely used shell script to automate and interface with programs, which I gained a fair amount of experience with this summer, including how to use regular expression. Lastly, soft-skills are an area everyone can continuously improve on; having never worked with NASA engineers, which to me seem to be a completely different breed than what I am used to (commercial electronic engineers), I learned to utilize the wealth of knowledge present at JSC. I wish I had come into the internship knowing exactly how helpful everyone in my branch would be, as I would have picked up on this sooner. I hope that having gained such a strong foundation in Simulink over this summer will open the opportunity to return to work on this project, or potentially other opportunities within the division. The idea of leaving a project I devoted ten weeks to is a hard one to cope with, so having the chance to pick up where I left off sounds appealing; alternatively, I am interested to see if there are any opening in the future that would allow me to work on a project that is more in-line with my research in estimation algorithms. Regardless, this summer has been a milestone in my professional career, and I hope this has started a long-term relationship between JSC and myself. I really enjoy the thought of building on my experience here over future summers while I work to complete my PhD at Missouri University of Science and Technology.

Gualdoni, Matthew J.↗

The NASA In-Space Propulsion Technology Project's Current Products and Future Directions

Since its inception in 2001, the objective of the In-Space Propulsion Technology (ISPT) project has been developing and delivering in-space propulsion technologies that enable or enhance NASA robotic science missions. These in-space propulsion technologies are applicable, and potentially enabling for future NASA flagship and sample return missions currently under consideration, as well as having broad applicability to future Discovery and New Frontiers mission solicitations. This paper provides status of the technology development, applicability, and availability of in-space propulsion technologies that recently completed, or will be completing within the next year, their technology development and are ready for infusion into missions. The paper also describes the ISPT project s future focus on propulsion for sample return missions. The ISPT technologies completing their development are: 1) the high-temperature Advanced Material Bipropellant Rocket (AMBR) engine providing higher performance for lower cost; 2) NASA s Evolutionary Xenon Thruster (NEXT) ion propulsion system, a 0.6-7 kW throttle-able gridded ion system; and 3) aerocapture technologies which include thermal protection system (TPS) materials and structures, guidance, navigation, and control (GN&C) models of blunt-body rigid aeroshells; and atmospheric and aerothermal effect models. The future technology development areas for ISPT are: 1) Planetary Ascent Vehicles (PAV); 2) multi-mission technologies for Earth Entry Vehicles (MMEEV) needed for sample return missions from many different destinations; 3) propulsion for Earth Return Vehicles (ERV) and transfer stages, and electric propulsion for sample return and low cost missions; 4) advanced propulsion technologies for sample return; and 5) Systems/Mission Analysis focused on sample return propulsion.

Anderson, David J.↗

The construction of airfoil pressure models by the plate method: Achievements, current research, technology development and potential applications

A method of constructing airfoils by inscribing pressure channels on the face of opposing plates, bonding them together to form one plate with integral channels, and contour machining this plate to form an airfoil model is described. The research and development program to develop the bonding technology is described as well as the construction and testing of an airfoil model. Sample aerodynamic data sets are presented and discussed. Also, work currently under way to produce thin airfoils with camber is presented. Samples of the aft section of a 6 percent airfoil with complete pressure instrumentation including the trailing edge are pictured and described. This technique is particularly useful in fabricating models for transonic cryogenic testing, but it should find application in a wide ange of model construction projects, as well as the fabrication of fuel injectors, space hardware, and other applications requiring advanced bonding technology and intricate fluid passages.

Lawing, P. L.↗

Rotorcraft technology at Boeing Vertol: Recent advances

An overview is presented of key accomplishments in the rotorcraft development at Boeing Vertol. Projects of particular significance: high speed rotor development and the Model 360 Advanced Technology Helicopter. Areas addressed in the overview are: advanced rotors with reduced noise and vibration, 3-D aerodynamic modeling, flight control and avionics, active control, automated diagnostics and prognostics, composite structures, and drive systems.

Shaw, John↗

Nuclear Electric Propulsion Modular Power Conversion Model

This work builds upon a previously examined single loop power conversion cycle for nuclear electric propulsion systems. The intent of this model is to enable examination of trends within the system and extract system parameters that could be used in a mass model to understand how technology performance may impact overall system mass.Several model upgrades were made since the previous work which included physics-based sizing of the turbomachinery and pressure loss inside the radiator. A higher fidelity and modular fluid property code was also developed to help understand the impact of variable fluid properties more accurately and allow for the analysis of different fluids in the same model. The upgraded model features radiator and reactor loops with separate fluids from the Brayton cycle to understand advantages and disadvantages of using multiple working fluids as well as the capability of simulating off nominal system performance. The latter provides a steppingstone for modeling the transient performance of the power conversion system.

NEP↗

The costs of introducing new technologies into space systems

A review is conducted of cost-research studies intended to provide guidelines for cost estimates of integrating new technologies into existing satellite systems. Quantitative methods are described for determining the technological state-of-the-art so that proposed programs can be evaluated accurately in terms of their contribution to technological development. The R&D costs associated with the proposed programs are then assessed with attention given to the technological advances. Also incorporated quantifiably are any reductions in the costs of production, operations, and support afforded by the advanced technologies. The proposed model is employed in relation to a satellite sizing and cost study in which a tradeoff between increased R&D costs and reduced production costs is examined. The technology/cost model provides a consistent yardstick for assessing the true relative economic impact of introducing novel techniques and technologies.

Dodson, E. N.↗

T-infinity: The Dependency Inversion Principle for Rapid and Sustainable Multidisciplinary Software Development

The CFD Vision 2030 Study recommends that, “NASA should develop and maintain an integrated simulation and software development infrastructure to enable rapid CFD technology maturation.... [S]oftware standards and interfaces must be emphasized and supported whenever possible, and open source models for noncritical technology components should be adopted.” The current paper presents an approach to an open source development architecture, named T-infinity, for accelerated research in CFD leveraging the Dependency Inversion Principle to realize plugins that communicate through collections of functions without exposing internal data structures. Steady state flow visualization, mesh adaptation, fluid-structure interaction, and overset domain capabilities are demonstrated through compositions of plugins via standardized abstract interfaces without the need for source code dependencies between disciplines. Plugins interact through abstract interfaces thereby avoiding N 2 direct code-to-code data structure coupling where N is the number of codes. This plugin architecture enhances sustainable development by controlling the interaction between components to limit software complexity growth. The use of T-infinity abstract interfaces enables multidisciplinary application developers to leverage legacy applications alongside newly-developed capabilities. While rein, a description of interface details is deferred until the are more thoroughly tested and can be closed to modification.

O'Connell, Matthew D.↗

Schedule Risks Due to Delays in Advanced Technology Development

This paper discusses a methodology and modeling capability that probabilistically evaluates the likelihood and impacts of delays in advanced technology development prior to the start of design, development, test, and evaluation (DDT&E) of complex space systems. The challenges of understanding and modeling advanced technology development considerations are first outlined, followed by a discussion of the problem in the context of lunar surface architecture analysis. The current and planned methodologies to address the problem are then presented along with sample analyses and results. The methodology discussed herein provides decision-makers a thorough understanding of the schedule impacts resulting from the inclusion of various enabling advanced technology assumptions within system design.

Reeves, John D. Jr.↗

Launch Vehicle Propulsion Design with Multiple Selection Criteria

The approach and techniques described herein define an optimization and evaluation approach for a liquid hydrogen/liquid oxygen single-stage-to-orbit system. The method uses Monte Carlo simulations, genetic algorithm solvers, a propulsion thermo-chemical code, power series regression curves for historical data, and statistical models in order to optimize a vehicle system. The system, including parameters for engine chamber pressure, area ratio, and oxidizer/fuel ratio, was modeled and optimized to determine the best design for seven separate design weight and cost cases by varying design and technology parameters. Significant model results show that a 53% increase in Design, Development, Test and Evaluation cost results in a 67% reduction in Gross Liftoff Weight. Other key findings show the sensitivity of propulsion parameters, technology factors, and cost factors and how these parameters differ when cost and weight are optimized separately. Each of the three key propulsion parameters; chamber pressure, area ratio, and oxidizer/fuel ratio, are optimized in the seven design cases and results are plotted to show impacts to engine mass and overall vehicle mass.

Shelton, Joey D.↗