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NASA NTRS2005

Multidecadal Changes in Near-Global Cloud Cover and Estimated Cloud Cover Radiative Forcing

The first paper was Multidecadal changes in near-global cloud cover and estimated cloud cover radiative forcing, by J. R. Norris (2005, J. Geophys. Res. - Atmos., 110, D08206, doi: lO.l029/2004JD005600). This study examined variability in zonal mean surface-observed upper-level (combined midlevel and high-level) and low-level cloud cover over land during 1971-1 996 and over ocean during 1952-1997. These data were averaged from individual synoptic reports in the Extended Edited Cloud Report Archive (EECRA). Although substantial interdecadal variability is present in the time series, long-term decreases in upper-level cloud cover occur over land and ocean at low and middle latitudes in both hemispheres. Near-global upper-level cloud cover declined by 1.5%-sky-cover over land between 1971 and 1996 and by 1.3%-sky-cover over ocean between 1952 and 1997. Consistency between EECRA upper-level cloud cover anomalies and those from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) during 1984-1 997 suggests the surface-observed trends are real. The reduction in surface-observed upper-level cloud cover between the 1980s and 1990s is also consistent with the decadal increase in all-sky outgoing longwave radiation reported by the Earth Radiation Budget Satellite (EMS). Discrepancies occur between time series of EECRA and ISCCP low-level cloud cover due to identified and probable artifacts in satellite and surface cloud data. Radiative effects of surface-observed cloud cover anomalies, called "cloud cover radiative forcing (CCRF) anomalies," are estimated based on a linear relationship to climatological cloud radiative forcing per unit cloud cover. Zonal mean estimated longwave CCRF has decreased over most of the globe. Estimated shortwave CCRF has become slightly stronger over northern midlatitude oceans and slightly weaker over northern midlatitude land areas. A long-term decline in the magnitude of estimated shortwave CCRF occurs over low-latitude land and ocean, but comparison with EMS all-sky reflected shortwave radiation during 1985-1997 suggests this decrease may be underestimated.

Norris, Joel↗
NASA NTRS2002

Control Surface and Afterbody Experimental Aeroheating for a Proposed Mars Smart Lander Aeroshell

Several configurations, having a Viking aeroshell heritage and providing lift-to-drag required for precision landing, have been considered for a proposed Mars Smart Lander. An experimental aeroheating investigation of two configurations, one having a blended tab and the other a blended shelf control surface, has been conducted at the NASA Langley Research Center in the 20-Inch Mach 6 Air Tunnel to assess heating levels on these control surfaces and their effects on afterbody heating. The proposed Mars Smart Lander concept is to be attached through its aeroshell to the main spacecraft bus, thereby producing cavities in the forebody heat shield upon separation prior to entry into the Martian atmosphere. The effects these cavities will have on the heating levels experienced by the control surface and the afterbody were also examined. The effects of Reynolds number, angle-of-attack, and cavity location on aeroheating levels and distributions were determined and are presented. At the highest angle-of-attack, blended tab heating was increased due to transitional reattachment of the separated shear layer. The placement of cavities downstream of the control surface greatly influenced aeroheating levels and distributions. Forebody heat shield cavities had no effect on afterbody heating and the presence of control surfaces decreased leeward afterbody heating slightly.

Liechty, Derek S.↗
NASA NTRS1984

Does crater 'saturation equilibrium' occur in the solar system?

The similarity in crater densities on the most heavily cratered surfaces throughout the solar system is statistically examined and discussed in terms of a 'saturation equilibrium' being achieved by cratering processes. This hypothesis accounts for (1) the similarity in maximum relative crater density, below certain theoretically predicted values, on all heavily cratered surfaces; (2) a levelling off at this same relative density among 100-m scale craters in populations on lunar maria and other sparsely cratered lunar surfaces; and (3) the approximate uniformity of maximum relative densities on Saturn satellites. The lunar frontside upland crater population, sometimes described as a well-preserved production function useful for interpreting other planetary surfaces, is found not to be a production function. It was modified by intercrater plains at least partly formed by early upland basaltic lava flooding.

Hartmann, W. K.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Current and Future Plans of the NASA Data Assimilation Office (DAO)

The mission of the Data Assimilation Office (DAO) is to advance the state of the art of data assimilation and produce research-quality assimilated data sets which make optimal use of space-based observations. Development efforts over the last few years have focused on delivering a production data assimilation system in support of NASA's Terra platform. That system, called the Goddard Earth Observing System - version 2 or GEOS-2, represents a major upgrade to the baseline GEOS-1 system employed in NASA's first reanalysis effort. GEOS-2 includes a physical-space three dimensional variational analysis algorithm (the Physical-space Statistical Analysis System or PSAS) and numerous improvements to the general circulation model. The latter include a Soil-Vegetation-Atmosphere Transfer (SVAT) land surface scheme, a level 2.5 moist turbulence scheme and new Short Wave (SW) and Long Wave (LW) radiation code. The system also includes an off-line ozone assimilation system, and the capability to assimilate scatterometer surface winds, and TIROS Operational Vertical Sounder (TOVS) and Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) moisture data. GEOS-2 is currently run at 1 degree horizontal resolution and 48 levels extending to O.Olmb. Experimental versions of GEOS-2 are run with a global stretched grid allowing enhanced (e.g. 1/4 deg) regional resolution. Other capabilities being developed include, the assimilation of Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) precipitation and Global Positioning System (GPS) data, an off-line land surface assimilation system, and a retrospective analysis scheme. The DAO is also engaged in a number of collaborative efforts to help accelerate the development of the next generation data assimilation system. These include, a joint modeling effort between the DAO and NCAR/CGDD to develop a new Global Circulation Model (GCM), and a Department of Energy Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (DOE/LLNL) collaboration on model parallelization. Plans for the next reanalysis will be discussed in the context of current and near term system quality and computing capabilities, and the need for multiple reanalysis products.

Atlas, Robert↗
NASA NTRS1993

Exploring the southern ocean response to climate change

The purpose of this project was to couple a regional (Southern Ocean) ocean/sea ice model to the existing Goddard Institute for Space Science (GISS) atmospheric general circulation model (GCM). This modification recognizes: the relative isolation of the Southern Ocean; the need to account, prognostically, for the significant air/sea/ice interaction through all involved components; and the advantage of translating the atmospheric lower boundary (typically the rapidly changing ocean surface) to a level that is consistent with the physical response times governing the system evolution (that is, to the base of the fast responding ocean surface layer). The deeper ocean beneath this layer varies on time scales several orders of magnitude slower than the atmosphere and surface ocean, and therefore the boundary between the upper and deep ocean represents a more reasonable fixed boundary condition.

Martinson, Douglas G.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Boundary-layer heat and moisture budgets from FIFE

Aircraft stacks were flown upwind and downwind of the First International Satellite Land Surface Climatology Project Field Experiment site in Kansas to measure the heat and moisture budgets of the boundary layer under fairly clear skies for four daytime periods. The terms in the conservation equation are evaluated. The vertical flux divergence and advection do not account for the difference between surface and low-level aircraft flux estimates. Budget estimates of the surface fluxes using the aircraft data agree well with surface flux measurements, but extrapolation of the aircraft fluxes gives surface fluxes that are too low.

Desjardins, R. L.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Data Assimilation Into a Coupled Ocean Atmosphere Model: Application to the 1997-1998 El Nino

As part of JPL's ocean data assimilation effort to study ocean circulation and seasonal-interannual climate variability, sea level anomaly observed by TOPEX altimeter, together with sea surface temperature and wind stress data, are assimilated into a simple coupled ocean atmosphere model of the tropical Pacific. Model-data consistency is examined. Impact of the assimilation (as initialization) on El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) forecasts is evaluated. The coupled model consists of a shallow water component with two baroclinic modes, an Ekman shear layer, a simplified mixed-layer temperature equation, and a statistical atmosphere based on dominant correlations between historical surface temperature and wind stress anomaly data. The adjoins method is used to fit the coupled model to the data over various six-month periods from late 1996 to early 1998 by optimally adjusting the initial state, model parameters, and basis functions of the statistical atmosphere. On average, the coupled model can be fitted to the data to approximately within the data and representation errors (5 cm, 0.5 C, and 10 sq m/sq m for sea level, surface temperature, and pseudo wind stress anomalies, respectively). The estimated fields resemble observed spatio-temporal structure reasonably well. Hindcasts/forecasts of the 1997/1998 El Nino initialized from forced estimated ocean states and parameters are much more realistic than those simply initialized from ocean states (see figure below). In particular, the ability of the model to produce significant warming beyond the initial state is dramatically improved. Parameter estimation, which compensates for some model errors, is found to be important to obtaining better fits of the model to data and to improving forecasts.

Lee, Tong↗
NASA NTRS2000

Climatology of the Finite-Volume CCM and Sensitivity Studies

A new model has been developed in the Data Assimilation Office at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. It is intended for data assimilation and general circulation modeling, including representations of radiatively active trace gases such as stratospheric ozone. The model is based on the flux-form semi-Lagrangian' dynamical core, developed by Lin and Rood. In collaboration with the National Center for Atmospheric Research, the physical parametrization package from the Community Climate model, Version 3, has been included. This paper will discuss the climatology of a multi-year integration of the model, with observed boundary conditions (sea-surface temperature, sea ice, and incoming solar radiation). The standard model version has a resolution of 2.5 degrees longitude, 2 degrees latitude and has 55 levels between the surface and 80km. The mean climate and interannual variability of this model will be discussed, with emphasis on the middle atmosphere. The sensitivity to horizontal resolution will be examined, as will the impact of increasing and decreasing the vertical resolution. Changes which differ significantly from the interannual variations of the control run will be highlighted. Impacts of using long-term mean boundary conditions or values which vary from year to year will be discussed. Changes in the tropospheric circulation induced by lowering the upper boundary of the model will be discussed. The emphasis of the paper is on the climatology of the middle atmosphere and its impacts on the troposphere, with particular attention given to the climatologically important region near the tropopause.

Pawson, Steven↗
NASA NTRS2010

Tool for Forecasting Cool-Season Peak Winds Across Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station

The expected peak wind speed for the day is an important element in the daily morning forecast for ground and space launch operations at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS). The 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) must issue forecast advisories for KSC/CCAFS when they expect peak gusts for >= 25, >= 35, and >= 50 kt thresholds at any level from the surface to 300 ft. In Phase I of this task, the 45 WS tasked the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) to develop a cool-season (October - April) tool to help forecast the non-convective peak wind from the surface to 300 ft at KSC/CCAFS. During the warm season, these wind speeds are rarely exceeded except during convective winds or under the influence of tropical cyclones, for which other techniques are already in use. The tool used single and multiple linear regression equations to predict the peak wind from the morning sounding. The forecaster manually entered several observed sounding parameters into a Microsoft Excel graphical user interface (GUI), and then the tool displayed the forecast peak wind speed, average wind speed at the time of the peak wind, the timing of the peak wind and the probability the peak wind will meet or exceed 35, 50 and 60 kt. The 45 WS customers later dropped the requirement for >= 60 kt wind warnings. During Phase II of this task, the AMU expanded the period of record (POR) by six years to increase the number of observations used to create the forecast equations. A large number of possible predictors were evaluated from archived soundings, including inversion depth and strength, low-level wind shear, mixing height, temperature lapse rate and winds from the surface to 3000 ft. Each day in the POR was stratified in a number of ways, such as by low-level wind direction, synoptic weather pattern, precipitation and Bulk Richardson number. The most accurate Phase II equations were then selected for an independent verification. The Phase I and II forecast methods were compared using an independent verification data set. The two methods were compared to climatology, wind warnings and advisories issued by the 45 WS, and North American Mesoscale (NAM) model (MesoNAM) forecast winds. The performance of the Phase I and II methods were similar with respect to mean absolute error. Since the Phase I data were not stratified by precipitation, this method's peak wind forecasts had a large negative bias on days with precipitation and a small positive bias on days with no precipitation. Overall, the climatology methods performed the worst while the MesoNAM performed the best. Since the MesoNAM winds were the most accurate in the comparison, the final version of the tool was based on the MesoNAM winds. The probability the peak wind will meet or exceed the warning thresholds were based on the one standard deviation error bars from the linear regression. For example, the linear regression might forecast the most likely peak speed to be 35 kt and the error bars used to calculate that the probability of >= 25 kt = 76%, the probability of >= 35 kt = 50%, and the probability of >= 50 kt = 19%. The authors have not seen this application of linear regression error bars in any other meteorological applications. Although probability forecast tools should usually be developed with logistic regression, this technique could be easily generalized to any linear regression forecast tool to estimate the probability of exceeding any desired threshold . This could be useful for previously developed linear regression forecast tools or new forecast applications where statistical analysis software to perform logistic regression is not available. The tool was delivered in two formats - a Microsoft Excel GUI and a Tool Command Language/Tool Kit (Tcl/Tk) GUI in the Meteorological Interactive Data Display System (MIDDS). The Microsoft Excel GUI reads a MesoNAM text file containing hourly forecasts from 0 to 84 hours, from one model run (00 or 12 UTC). The GUI then displays e peak wind speed, average wind speed, and the probability the peak wind will meet or exceed the 25-, 35- and 50-kt thresholds. The user can display the Day-1 through Day-3 peak wind forecasts, and separate forecasts are made for precipitation and non-precipitation days. The MIDDS GUI uses data from the NAM and Global Forecast System (GFS), instead of the MesoNAM. It can display Day-1 and Day-2 forecasts using NAM data, and Day-1 through Day-5 forecasts using GFS data. The timing of the peak wind is not displayed, since the independent verification showed that none of the forecast methods performed significantly better than climatology. The forecaster should use the climatological timing of the peak wind (2248 UTC) as a first guess and then adjust it based on the movement of weather features.

Barrett, Joe H., III↗
NASA NTRS2000

A Spacebased Ocean Surface Exchange Data Analysis System

Emerging technologies have provided unprecedented opportunities to transform information into knowledge and disseminate them in a much faster, cheaper, and userfriendly mode. We have set up a system to produce and disseminate high level (gridded) ocean surface wind data from the NASA Scatterometer and European Remote Sensing missions. The data system is being expanded to produce real-time gridded ocean surface winds from an improved sensor SeaWinds on the Quikscat Mission. The wind field will be combined with hydrologic parameters from the Tropical Rain Measuring Mission to monitor evolving weather systems and natural hazard in real time. It will form the basis for spacebased Ocean Surface Exchange Data Analysis System (SOSEDAS) which will include the production of ocean surface momentum, heat, and water fluxes needed for interdisciplinary studies of ocean-atmosphere interaction. Various commercial or non-commercial software tools have been compared and selected in terms of their ability in database management, remote data accessing, graphical interface, data quality, storage needs and transfer speed, etc. Issues regarding system security and user authentication, distributed data archiving and accessing, strategy to compress large-volume geophysical and satellite data/image. and increasing transferring speed are being addressed. A simple and easy way to access information and derive knowledge from spacebased data of multiple missions is being provided. The evolving 'knowledge system' will provide relevant infrastructure to address Earth System Science, make inroads in educating an informed populace, and illuminate decision and policy making.

Tang, Wenqing↗
NASA NTRS2010

Atmospheric Circulation Anomalies During Two Persistent North American Droughts: 1932-1939 and 1948-1957

We use an early twentieth century (1908-1958) atmospheric reanalysis, based on assimilation of surface and sea level pressure observations, to contrast atmospheric circulation during two periods of persistent drought in North America: 1932-1939 (the Dust Bowl) and 1948-1957. Primary forcing for both droughts is believed to come from anomalous sea surface temperatures (SSTs): a warm Atlantic and a cool eastern tropical Pacific. For boreal winter (October-March) in the 1950s, a stationary wave pattern originating from the tropical Pacific is present, with positive centers over the north Pacific and north Atlantic ocean basins and a negative center positioned over northwest North America and the tropical/subtropical Pacific. This wave train is largely absent for the 1930s drought; boreal winter height anomalies are organized much more zonally, with positive heights extending across northern North America. For boreal summer (April-September) during the 1930s, a strong upper level ridge is centered over the Great Plains; this feature is absent during the 1950s and appears to be linked to a weakening of the Great Plains low-level jet (GPLLJ). Subsidence anomalies are co-located over the centers of each drought: in the central Great Plains for the 1930s and in a band extending from the southwest to the southeastern United States for the 1950s. The location and intensity of this subsidence during the 1948-1957 drought is a typical response to a cold eastern tropical Pacific, but for 1932-1939 deviates in terms of the expected intensity, location, and spatial extent. Overall, circulation anomalies during the 1950s drought appear consistent with the expected response to the observed SST forcing. This is not the case for the 1930s, implying some other causal factor may be needed to explain the Dust Bowl drought anomalies. In addition to SST forcing, the 1930s were also characterized by massive alterations to the land surface, including regional-scale devegetation from crop failures and intensive wind erosion and dust storms. Incorporation of these land surface factors into a general circulation model greatly improves the simulation of precipitation and subsidence anomalies during this drought, relative to simulations with SST forcing alone. Even with additional forcing from the land surface, however, the model still has difficulty reproducing some of the other circulation anomalies, including weakening of the GPLLJ and strengthening of the upper level ridge during AMJJAS. This may be due to either weaknesses in the model or uncertainties in the boundary condition estimates. Still, analysis of the circulation anomalies supports the conclusion of an earlier paper (Cook et al. in Proc Natl Acad Sci 106:4997, 2009), demonstrating that land degradation factors are consistent with the anomalous nature of the Dust Bowl drought.

Cook, Benjamin↗
NASA NTRS2017

Antarctic Ice Shelf Potentially Stabilized by Export of Meltwater in Surface River

Meltwater stored in ponds and crevasses can weaken and fracture ice shelves, triggering their rapid disintegration. This ice-shelf collapse results in an increased flux of ice from adjacent glaciers and ice streams, thereby raising sea level globally. However, surface rivers forming on ice shelves could potentially export stored meltwater and prevent its destructive effects. Here we present evidence for persistent active drainage networks-interconnected streams, ponds and rivers-on the Nansen Ice Shelf in Antarctica that export a large fraction of the ice shelf's meltwater into the ocean. We find that active drainage has exported water off the ice surface through waterfalls and dolines for more than a century. The surface river terminates in a 130-metre-wide waterfall that can export the entire annual surface melt over the course of seven days. During warmer melt seasons, these drainage networks adapt to changing environmental conditions by remaining active for longer and exporting more water. Similar networks are present on the ice shelf in front of Petermann Glacier, Greenland, but other systems, such as on the Larsen C and Amery Ice Shelves, retain surface water at present. The underlying reasons for export versus retention remain unclear. Nonetheless our results suggest that, in a future warming climate, surface rivers could export melt off the large ice shelves surrounding Antarctica-contrary to present Antarctic ice-sheet models, which assume that meltwater is stored on the ice surface where it triggers ice-shelf disintegration.

Bell, Robin E.↗
NASA NTRS1992

On the Retrieval and Analysis of Multilevel Clouds

An accurate satellite retrieval of cloud properties depends upon the detection and analysis of multilayered, overlapping cloud systems that surface observations show to be common. Multiple cloud layers are often found, for instance, in frontal situations, where cirrus overlays boundary layer convective cloud or low-to mid-level stratus cloud. Surface observers (Hahan et al., 1982) indicate that over ocean in the Northern Hemisphere between 30 deg. N and 60 deg. N, 51 percent of observations are of multilevel clouds. A satellite analysis by Coakley (1983) over the Pacific Ocean finds that more than 50 percent of 500 (250 sq km) frames exhibit evidence of multilayered cloud systems. The questions addressed in this study are the following: What error is introduced when inferring the cloud pressure from a Field-Of-View (FOV) that contains some arbitrary amount of transparent cloud overlaying a lower-level black cloud, such as stratus, by making the assumption that there is only a single cloud layer in the FOV, and what may be done to improve the cloud retrieval? The CO2 slicing methods (e.g. McCleese and Wilson, 1976; Smith and Platt, 1978; Chahine, 1974) have been shown to provide accurate means of inferring cirrus cloud altitude from passive infrared radiance measurements. The CO2 techniques have been applied to radiometric data from several instruments, notably the High Resolution Infrared Radiometric Sounder (HIRS/2, hereafter referred to as HIRS), the VISSR Atmospheric Sounder (VAS) (e.g., Menzel et al., 1983; Wylie and Menzel, 1989), and most recently to the High Resolution Interferometer Sounder (HIS) (Smith and Frey, 1990). The methods take advantage of the fact that infrared CO2 sounding channels spaced closely in wavenumber each have varying opacity to CO2, thereby causing each channel to be sensitive to a different level in the atmosphere. The techniques have been shown to be effective for single-layered, nonblack, mid- to high-level clouds such as cirrus, but are generally applied operationally to any given cloud occurrence. The CO2 slicing algorithms are most accurate for clouds than occur in a single, well-defined layer, or for multi-layered cloud cases in which the uppermost cloud layer is nearly black. Significant cloud height retrieval errors may ensue if the HIRS Field-Of-View (FOV) is cotaminated with low cloud. McCleese and Wilson (1976) have shown that the retrieved cloud height for the case of multiple cloud layers is a weighted average of the cloud heights actually present. The weight is approximately proportional to the product of the cloud heigt and the effective cloud amount. The effect of their result is that the uppermost cloud layer dominates the cloud pressure retrieval. Beyond stating that the higher cloud dominates the cloud pressure retrieval, there is no quantitative information to provide a way of estimating the errors in cloud pressure retrieval one should expect for certain common multilevel cloud situations or any suggestions on how to reduce the errors. In this paper we estimate the magnitude of the errors and use a simple algorithm to reduce the errors in optically thin cloud height retrival.

Baum, Bryan A.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Hubble Space Telescope servicing mission scientific instrument protective enclosure design requirements and contamination controls

The Scientific Instrument Protective Enclosures were designed for the Hubble Space Telescope Servicing Missions to provide a beginning environment to a Scientific Instrument during ground and on orbit activities. The Scientific Instruments required very stringent surface cleanliness and molecular outgassing levels to maintain ultraviolet performance. Data from the First Servicing Mission verified that both the Scientific Instruments and Scientific Instrument Protective Enclosures met surface cleanliness level requirements during ground and on-orbit activities.

Hansen, Patricia A.↗
NASA NTRS2018

The Impact of Satellite Sea Surface Salinity for Prediction of the Coupled Indo-Pacific System

Here we assess the impact of satellite sea surface salinity (SSS) observations on seasonal to interannual variability of tropical Indo-Pacific Ocean dynamics as well as on dynamical ENSO forecasts. The baseline experiment assimilates satellite sea level (SL), sea surface temperature (SST), and in situ subsurface temperature and salinity observations (Tz, Sz). These baseline experiments are then compared with experiments that additionally assimilate Aquarius (version 5.0 Lilly and Lagerloef, 2008) and SMAP (version 2.0 Meissner and Wentz, 2016) SSS. Twelve-month forecasts are initialized for each month from September 2011 to September 2017. We find that including satellite SSS significantly improves NINO3.4 sea surface temperature anomaly validation over 0-8 month forecast lead-times and removing the salty bias from SMAP data helps to extend useful forecasts out to 12 month lead-times.

SSS↗
NASA NTRS1977

Flow-field surveys on the windward side of the NASA 040A space shuttle orbiter at 31 deg angle of attack and Mach 20 in helium

Pitot pressure and flow angle distributions in the windward flow field of the NASA 040A space shuttle orbiter configuration and surface pressures were measured, at a Mach number of 20 and an angle of attack of 31 deg. The free stream Reynolds number, based on model length, was 5.39 x 10 to the 6th power. Results show that cores of high pitot pressure, which are related to the body-shock-wing-shock intersections, occur on the windward plane of symmetry in the vicinity of the wing-body junction and near midspan on the wing. Theoretical estimates of the flow field pitot pressures show that conical flow values for the windward plane of symmetry surface are representative of the average level over the entire lower surface.

Ashby, G. C., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS1985

A survey of major east coast snowstorms, 1960-1983. Part 2. Summary of surface and upperlevel characteristics

Surface and upper-level characteristics of selected meteorological fields are summarized. Two major types of sea level development are described and applied to the cases at hand, with a few storm systems showing characteristics of both types. Aspects such as rapid sea level deepening, coastal frontogenesis, cold air damming, low level jet formation, the development of an S-shaped isotherm pattern, diffluence downwind of a negatively tilted upper level trough axis, upper level confluence and an increase of geopotential heights at the base of the upper level trough characterized the pre-cyclogenetic and cyclogenetic periods of many of the storm systems. Large variability was also observed, especially with regard to the spatial dimensions of the surface and upper level systems, as well as variations in trough/ridge amplification and the evolution of upper level jet streak systems. The influence of transverse circulations associated with a confluent jet streak entrance region and the diffluent exit region of a jet streak/trough system on the production of snowfall is also discussed.

Kocin, P. J.↗
NASA NTRS1995

Sensitivity of two-dimensional model predictions of ozone response to stratospheric aircraft: An update

The Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) two-dimensional model of stratospheric photochemistry and dynamics has been used to calculate the O3 response to stratospheric aircraft (high-speed civil transport (HSCT)) emissions. The sensitivity of the model O3 response was examined for systematic variations of five parameters and two reaction rates over a wide range, expanding on calculations by various modeling groups for the NASA High Speed Research Program and the World Meteorological Organization. In all, 448 model runs were required to test the effects of variations in the latitude, altitude, and magnetitude of the aircraft emissions perturbation, the background chlorine levels, the background sulfate aerosol surface area densities, and the rates of two key reactions. No deviation from previous conclusions concerning the response of O3 to HSCTs was found in this more exhaustive exploration of parameter space. Maximum O3 depletions occur for high-altitude, low altitude HSCT perturbations. Small increases in global total O3 can occur for low-altitude, high-altitude injections. Decreasing aerosol surface area densities and background chlorine levels increases the sensitivity of model O3 to the HSCT perturbations. The location of the aircraft emissions is the most important determinant of the model response. Response to the location of the HSCT emissions is not changed qualitatively by changes in background chlorine and aerosol loading. The response is also not very sensitive to changes in the rates of the reactions NO + HO2 yields NO2 + OH and HO2 + O3 yields OH + 2O2 over the limits of their respective uncertainties. Finally, levels of lower stratospheric HO(sub x) generally decrease when the HSCT perturbation is included, even though there are large increases in H2O due to the perturbation.

Considine, David B.↗