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At least 361 records · Page 20

Model correction and updating of a stochastic degradation model for failure prognostics of miter gates

Understanding the degradation of the quoin block is vital for failure prognostics in miter gates. Due to the complicated degradation mechanism, degradation models based on simplifications and assumptions cannot accurately describe the damage evolution. It is observed that small errors in a simplified degradation model can lead to a large discrepancy in the remaining useful life estimation attributed to error accumulation over time. Aiming to address this issue in failure prognostics, this paper presents a dynamic model correction framework for a simplified degradation model using strain measurements. In the proposed framework, a polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) model is employed to compensate the missing physics in a simplified stochastic degradation model. Here, a maximum likelihood estimation method is developed to estimate the uncertain parameters of the simplified physics-based degradation model along with the unknown PCE model parameters using strain measurements as the observables. The updated damage degradation model is then applied to failure prognostics of a miter gate. Results of a case study show that the proposed approach can effectively improve the accuracy of failure prognostics in miter gates.

42 ENGINEERING↗

EELS Studies of Cerium Electrolyte Reveal Substantial Solute Concentration Effects in Graphene Liquid Cells

Graphene liquid cell transmission electron microscopy is a powerful technique to visualize nanoscale dynamics and transformations at atomic resolution. However, the solution in liquid cells is known to be affected by radiolysis, and the stochastic formation of graphene liquid cells raises questions about the solution chemistry in individual pockets. In this study, electron energy loss spectroscopy (EELS) was used to evaluate a model encapsulated solution, aqueous CeCl 3 . First, the ratio between the O K-edge and Ce M-edge was used to approximate the concentration of cerium salt in the graphene liquid cell. It was determined that the ratio between oxygen and cerium was orders of magnitude lower than what is expected for a dilute solution, indicating that the encapsulated solution is highly concentrated. To probe how this affects the chemistry within graphene liquid cells, the oxidation of Ce 3+ was measured using time-resolved parallel EELS. Here, it was determined that Ce 3+ oxidizes faster under high electron fluxes, but reaches the same steady-state Ce 4+ concentration regardless of flux. The time-resolved concentration profiles enabled direct comparison to radiolysis models, which indicate rate constants and g-values of certain molecular species are substantially different in the highly concentrated environment. Finally, electron flux-dependent gold nanocrystal etching trajectories showed that gold nanocrystals etch faster at higher electron fluxes, correlating well with the Ce 3+ oxidation kinetics. Understanding the effects of the highly concentrated solution in graphene liquid cells will provide new insight on previous studies and may open up opportunities to systematically study systems in highly concentrated solutions at high resolution.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Laser Powder Bed Fusion Additive Manufacturing In-Process Monitoring and Optimization Using Thermionic Emission Detection

In this project, the emission of electrons during laser powder bed fusion additive manufacturing was identified and investigated to resolve the underlying dynamics driven by laser-material interactions. Laser powder bed fusion involves the selective laser melting of metal powder particles layer by layer which fuse together forming a larger 3D structure. Laser-based additive manufacturing approaches such as laser powder bed fusion hold the potential to revolutionize manufacturing of complex metal components in the aerospace, medical, and automotive industries. However, the difficulty in producing defect-free components by metal 3D printing is a major hurdle for widespread commercial adoption. This project resolved important dynamics in laser powder bed fusion including the identification of plasma formation mechanisms, transitions between laser-induced melting modes and stochastic precursors to defect formation. These findings were realized through implementation of electronic sensing diagnostics into an existing testbed system and harnessing capabilities developed for the time dependent analysis of laser powder bed fusion datasets. Importantly, the results advance our understanding of laser-material interactions and reveal that detection of thermionic emission can also resolve information critical to optimization of the laser powder bed fusion fabrication process. The findings are critical for advancing our fundamental understanding of the laser powder bed fusion process and can help assure the requisite fidelity of fabricated components.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Simulation and Analysis on Reactor Pressure Vessel (RPV) subjected to Pressurized Thermal Shock (PTS) under SBLOCA scenario by using Cardinal to support the fracture mechanics analyses

The structural components that comprise nuclear reactors and their supporting structures are subjected to harsh operating environments that can challenge their integrity, especially after exposure for extended durations or under accident condition. As one of the most significant components of a Reactor, the Reactor Pressure Vessel (RPV) is exposed to an aggressive environment during the operation time (e.g. more than 40 years). Ageing degradation mechanisms (e.g. thermos-fatigue) could grow initial defects up to a critical size, increasing the susceptibility to failure in the RPV. The conventional methods are mostly based on simple crack and structure geometries. Very limited studies consider the real conditions of the RPV subjected to a thermal shock due to a Loss of Coolant Accident (LOCA). During a LOCA event, the most severe conditions take place when the emergency core cooling (ECC) water is injected inside the cold legs filled initially with hotter water and/or steam. The rapid cooling of the down-comer and the internal RPV surface followed probably by re-pressurization of the RPV causes large temperature gradients and variation of pressure which induces thermal-mechanical stresses. In order to develop the model for integrity assessment of a reactor pressure vessel (RPV) subjected to pressurized thermal shock (PTS), a multi-physics simulation, which includes the thermo-hydraulic, thermo-mechanical and fracture mechanics analyses is necessary. The multi-physics simulations are performed using Cardinal, a wrapping of the GPU-oriented spectral element Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) code NekRS and other multi-physics sub-modules within the MOOSE framework. Cardinal now fully supports MOOSE stochastic perturbations of NekRS models with varying boundary conditions, initial conditions, material properties, and any other quantity which is defined by a kernel (such as coefficients in a momentum source model). The implementation is designed in a flexible manner so that scalar values are sent from MOOSE into a user scratch space in NekRS, which can then be applied for any purpose within the NekRS case files (both on the host and device). When modeling PTS, several factors can impact the results significantly. In this report, the impacts of the geometry of the model, Reynolds number and buoyancy effect are investigated. Two geometry, i.e., a simplified model and a realistic RPV model, with both laminar and turbulent flow condition are adopted for the PTS simulation with and without buoyancy effect. The purpose of the investigation is to understand the impact of these factors on the prediction of temperature history of RPV. The accurate prediction on the temperature evolution, which will be exported to Grizzly code for further analyses on the progression of aging mechanisms and their effects on the integrity of RPV structures, is very crucial. Based on the understanding of these factors, a more sophisticated model is built to analysis the PTS under SBLOCA scenario. A literature survey is conducted to pick the SBLOCA scenario for the multi-physics simulation. The analysis helps to explain the form and the transformation of the cold plum when the ECC is activated under SBLOCA. This model can be can be applied to study the PTS effect for different RPV configurations. The results can help to assess structural component degradation for advanced reactors.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Data-Driven Transition Path Analysis Yields a Statistical Understanding of Sudden Stratospheric Warming Events in an Idealized Model

Abstract Atmospheric regime transitions are highly impactful as drivers of extreme weather events, but pose two formidable modeling challenges: predicting the next event (weather forecasting) and characterizing the statistics of events of a given severity (the risk climatology). Each event has a different duration and spatial structure, making it hard to define an objective “average event.” We argue here that transition path theory (TPT), a stochastic process framework, is an appropriate tool for the task. We demonstrate TPT’s capacities on a wave–mean flow model of sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) developed by Holton and Mass, which is idealized enough for transparent TPT analysis but complex enough to demonstrate computational scalability. Whereas a recent article (Finkel et al. 2021) studied near-term SSW predictability, the present article uses TPT to link predictability to long-term SSW frequency. This requires not only forecasting forward in time from an initial condition, but also backward in time to assess the probability of the initial conditions themselves. TPT enables one to condition the dynamics on the regime transition occurring, and thus visualize its physical drivers with a vector field called the reactive current . The reactive current shows that before an SSW, dissipation and stochastic forcing drive a slow decay of vortex strength at lower altitudes. The response of upper-level winds is late and sudden, occurring only after the transition is almost complete from a probabilistic point of view. This case study demonstrates that TPT quantities, visualized in a space of physically meaningful variables, can help one understand the dynamics of regime transitions.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

An improved stochastic weighted particle method for boundary driven flows

Here, the stochastic weighted particle method (SWPM) is a generalization of the Direct Simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) method where particle weights are variable and dynamic. SWPM is backed by a strong theoretical foundation but has not been critically evaluated for problems of practical interest. A thorough assessment of SWPM for boundary-driven flows reveals significant numerical artifacts near the boundary, notably a diverging heat flux. To correct the boundary heat flux, two modifications to SWPM are proposed: separated grouping and a spatially-dependent weight transfer function. To gauge the relative efficiency of SWPM in comparison to DSMC, a high-Mach-number wheel flow which forms a strong density gradient is also simulated.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Nonadiabatic transition paths from quantum jump trajectories

We present a means of studying rare reactive pathways in open quantum systems using transition path theory and ensembles of quantum jump trajectories. This approach allows for the elucidation of reactive paths for dissipative, nonadiabatic dynamics when the system is embedded in a Markovian environment. Here, we detail the dominant pathways and rates of thermally activated processes and the relaxation pathways and photoyields following vertical excitation in a minimal model of a conical intersection. We find that the geometry of the conical intersection affects the electronic character of the transition state as defined through a generalization of a committor function for a thermal barrier crossing event. Similarly, the geometry changes the mechanism of relaxation following a vertical excitation. Relaxation in models resulting from small diabatic coupling proceeds through pathways dominated by pure dephasing, while those with large diabatic coupling proceed through pathways limited by dissipation. The perspective introduced here for the nonadiabatic dynamics of open quantum systems generalizes classical notions of reactive paths to fundamentally quantum mechanical processes.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Fast particles in drift wave turbulence

This study aims to incorporate the effects of fast particles into our present fluid model for tokamak transport. The parameter ε f = ω / ω f, where ω is the mode frequency and ω f is the typical frequency of the fast particles, which enters as a factor in front of the fast particle response. Thus, for trapped fast particles, where ω f = ω pres the precession frequency of the fast particles, this parameter is of order 10 – 2 for drift waves, and thus, the fast particle response can be neglected. However, ε f will be of order 1 for fast particle modes such as in the fishbone instability. An important turbulence property, affecting both these limits, is resonance broadening. Effects of resonance broadening have recently been considered for fast particle instabilities, often coupled directly to the linear growth rate, while we here consider the original Dupree formulation where the turbulence directly drives a nonlinear frequency shift. Resonance broadening has a general tendency to counteract dissipative wave particle resonances. This has been observed for fast particle instabilities. Here, there is a resonant external source for the fast particles, so the instability survives if this source is dominant over the resonance broadening. For drift waves, however, external sources are not resonant since ε f << 1. Furthermore, the resonance broadening is able to remove the dissipative wave particle resonance completely.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Improving noisy free-energy measurements by adding more noise

Estimating free-energy differences using nonequilibrium work relations, such as the Jarzynski equality, is hindered by poor convergence when work fluctuations are large. For systems governed by overdamped Langevin dynamics, we propose the counterintuitive approach of adding noise in order to increase the precision of such calculations. Here, by introducing additional stochastic fluctuations to the system and rescaling its potential energy accordingly, we leave the thermodynamics of the system unchanged while increasing its relaxation rate. For a given time-dependent protocol this modification reduces the dissipated reduced work, leading to more accurate free-energy estimates. The method is designed to be used in experiment, and we illustrate its operation using computer simulations applied to two model systems. However, the regime of applicability of this strategy is likely limited, because it requires control of the system's potential energy in a way that is feasible in only a few experimental settings.

Whitelam, Stephen [Lawrence Berkeley National Labo↗

Binding kinetics of harmonically confined random walkers

Diffusion-mediated binding of molecules under the influence of discrete spatially confining potentials is a commonly encountered scenario in systems subjected to explicit fields or implicit fields arising from tethering restraints. Here, in this work, we derive analytical expressions for the mean binding time of two random walkers geometrically confined by means of two harmonic potentials in one- and two-dimensional systems, which show excellent agreement with Brownian dynamics simulations. As a demonstration of its utility, we use this theory to maximize the communication speed in existing DNA walkers, obtaining quantitative agreement with previously reported experimental findings. The analytical expressions derived in this paper are broadly applicable to diverse systems, providing ways to characterize communication processes and optimize the rate of signal propagation for sensing and computing applications at the nanoscale.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Ultrafast Relaxations in Ruthenium Polypyridyl Chromophores Determined by Stochastic Kinetics Simulations

Maximizing the efficiency of solar energy conversion using dye assemblies rests on understanding where the energy goes following absorption. Transient spectroscopies in solution are useful for this purpose, and the time-resolved data are usually analyzed with a sum of exponentials. This treatment assumes that dynamic events are well separated in time, and that the resulting exponential prefactors and phenomenological lifetimes are related directly to primary physical values. Such assumptions break down for coincident absorption, emission, and excited state relaxation that occur in transient absorption and photoluminescence of tris(2,2'-bipyridine)ruthenium(2+) derivatives, confounding the physical meaning of the reported lifetimes. Here, we use inductive modeling and stochastic chemical kinetics to develop a detailed description of the primary ultrafast photophysics in transient spectroscopies of a series of Ru dyes, as an alternative to sums of exponential analysis. Commonly invoked three-level schemes involving absorption, intersystem crossing (ISC), and slow nonradiative relaxation and incoherent emission to the ground state cannot reproduce the experimentally measured spectra. The kinetics simulations reveal that ultrafast decay from the singlet excited state manifold to the ground state competes with ISC to the triplet excited state, whose efficiency was determined to be less than unity. The populations predicted by the simulations are used to estimate the magnitudes of transition dipoles for excited state excitations and evaluate the influence of specific ligands. The mechanistic framework and methodology presented here are entirely general, applicable to other dye classes, and can be extended to include charge injection by molecules bound to semiconductor surfaces.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

On analysis and stochastic modeling of the particle kinetic energy equation in particle-laden isotropic turbulent flows

In this study, we analyze three-dimensional particle-laden, isotropic turbulence to develop an understanding of inertial particle dynamics from a kinetic energy perspective. Data trends implying inhomogeneous sampling of the flow by particles are identified and used to support a proposed particle behavior: particles appear to accumulate in regions of low flow kinetic energy over time because they lose kinetic energy and slow down in such regions, ultimately causing them to spend more time there. To elucidate this behavior, we derive a particle kinetic energy equation from the particle momentum equation, which incorporates inertial effects through the Schiller–Naumann drag correlation. Upon extracting fundamental physics from this equation, hypotheses regarding the role of the Stokes number in the temporal change of particle kinetic energy and the previously proposed particle behavior are evaluated using simulation data considering three Stokes numbers. Finally, a Fokker–Planck equation is used to derive the steady-state probability density function of the particle kinetic energy. The model fits the simulation data well and provides a tool for further investigation into understanding preferential concentration, as well as a reduced order model for predicting particle kinetic energy in turbulent flows.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Dynamic Transmission Line Switching Amid Wildfire-Prone Weather Under Decision-Dependent Uncertainty

During dry and windy seasons, environmental conditions significantly increase the risk of wildfires, exposing power grids to disruptions caused by transmission line failures. Wildfire propagation exacerbates grid vulnerability, potentially leading to prolonged power outages. To address this challenge, we propose a multistage optimization model that dynamically adjusts transmission grid topology in response to wildfire propagation, aiming to develop an optimal response policy. By accounting for decision-dependent uncertainty, where line survival probabilities depend on usage, we employ distributionally robust optimization to model uncertainty in line survival distributions. We adapt the stochastic nested decomposition algorithm and derive a deterministic upper bound for its finite convergence. To enhance computational efficiency, we exploit the Lagrangian dual problem structure for a faster generation of Lagrangian cuts. Using realistic data from the California transmission grid, we demonstrate the superior performance of dynamic response policies against two-stage alternatives through a comprehensive case study. In addition, after solving the multistage formulation, we construct easy-to-implement policies that significantly reduce computational burden while maintaining good performance in real-time deployment. History: Accepted by Russell Bent, Area Editor for Network Optimization: Algorithms and Applications. Funding: This work was supported by the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Electricity [Grant DE-AC02-05CH11231]. The work of R. Jiang was supported in part by the U.S. National Science Foundation, Division of Electrical, Communications and Cyber Systems [Grant ECCS-1845980] and the U.S. Air Force Office of Scientific Research [Grant FA9550-23-1-0323]. Supplemental Material: The software that supports the findings of this study is available within the paper and its Supplemental Information ( https://pubsonline.informs.org/doi/suppl/10.1287/ijoc.2025.1210 ) as well as from the IJOC GitHub software repository ( https://github.com/INFORMSJoC/2025.1210 ). The complete IJOC Software and Data Repository is available at https://informsjoc.github.io/ .

Estrada-Garcia, Juan-Alberto↗

A parallel discrete dislocation dynamics/kinetic Monte Carlo method to study non-conservative plastic processes

Non-conservative processes play a fundamental role in plasticity and are behind important macroscopic phenomena such as creep, dynamic strain aging, loop raft formation, etc. In the most general case, vacancy-induced dislocation climb is the operating unit mechanism. While dislocation/vacancy interactions have been modeled in the literature using a variety of methods, the approaches developed rely on continuum descriptions of both the vacancy population and its fluxes. However, there are numerous situations in physics where point defect populations display heterogeneous concentrations and/or non-smooth kinetics. Here, a kinetic Monte Carlo (kMC) approach for modeling vacancy transport in response to arbitrary stress fields is used. Vacancies are treated as point particles and are coupled to the dislocation substructure representing a deformed material via an advection term defined by the local stress gradients. The stress fields and the dislocation substructure are evolved using a discrete dislocation dynamics (DDD) module. To extend the coupled model to the treatment of large systems, we have implemented it in the massively-parallel DDD code ParaDiS. To avoid numerical incompatibilities associated with merging deterministic (DDD) and stochastic (kMC) integration algorithms, we cast the entire elasto-plastic-diffusive problem within a single stochastic framework, taking advantage of a parallel kMC algorithm to evolve the system as a single event-driven process. The large-scale implementation enables the study of the evolution of a variety of dislocation-defect scenarios governed by non-conservative transport kinetics. After carrying out an exhaustive numerical and computational analysis of our parallel algorithm, we show results that emphasize situations where inhomogeneous vacancy dynamics are of relevance, and compare discrete kinetics to continuum solutions for several cases.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Mixed stochastic-deterministic time-dependent density functional theory: application to stopping power of warm dense carbon

Warm dense matter (WDM) describes an intermediate phase, between condensed matter and classical plasmas, found in natural and man-made systems. In a laboratory setting, WDM is often created dynamically. It is typically laser or pulse-power generated and can be difficult to characterize experimentally. Measuring the energy loss of high energy ions, caused by a WDM target, is both a promising diagnostic and of fundamental importance to inertial confinement fusion research. However, electron coupling, degeneracy, and quantum effects limit the accuracy of easily calculable kinetic models for stopping power, while high temperatures make the traditional tools of condensed matter, e.g. time-dependent density functional theory (TD-DFT), often intractable. In this study, we have developed a mixed stochastic-deterministic approach to TD-DFT which provides more efficient computation while maintaining the required precision for model discrimination. Recently, this approach showed significant improvement compared to models when compared to experimental energy loss measurements in WDM carbon. Here, we describe this approach and demonstrate its application to warm dense carbon stopping across a range of projectile velocities. We compare direct stopping-power calculation to approaches based on combining homogeneous electron gas response with bound electrons, with parameters extracted from our TD-DFT calculations.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Multistage economic MPC for systems with a cyclic steady state: A gas network case study

Multistage model predictive control (MPC) provides a robust control strategy for dynamic systems with uncertainties and a setpoint tracking objective. Moreover, extending MPC to minimize an economic cost instead of tracking a pre-calculated optimal setpoint improves controller performance. This paper presents a novel multistage economic nonlinear model predictive control (E-NMPC) framework for dynamic systems operating under uncertainty, with specific application to natural gas transmission networks. A key innovation lies in the integration of cyclic steady-state (CSS) constraints within the multistage MPC formulation, enabling the controller to manage periodic operating conditions commonly observed in energy systems. A Lyapunov-based descent condition is enforced to ensure robust stability of the controller. The multistage economic MPC framework is validated on two gas pipeline case studies, where it successfully minimizes net energy consumption, respects operational constraints under uncertain demand profiles, and guides the network to optimal cyclic operation. The Lyapunov function remains bounded in both case studies, validating the robust stability of multistage E-NMPC.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Model-Free Measurement of Local Entropy Production and Extractable Work in Active Matter

Time-reversal symmetry breaking and entropy production are universal features of nonequilibrium phenomena. Despite its importance in the physics of active and living systems, the entropy production of systems with many degrees of freedom has remained of little practical significance because the high dimensionality of their state space makes it difficult to measure. Here, in this work, we introduce a local measure of entropy production and a numerical protocol to estimate it. We establish a connection between the entropy production and extractability of work in a given region of the system and show how this quantity depends crucially on the degrees of freedom being tracked. We validate our approach in theory, simulation, and experiments by considering systems of active Brownian particles undergoing motility-induced phase separation, as well as active Brownian particles and E.coli in a rectifying device in which the time-reversal asymmetry of the particle dynamics couples to spatial asymmetry to reveal its effects on a macroscopic scale.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

A Secure and Adaptive Hierarchical Multi-Timescale Framework for Resilient Load Restoration Using a Community Microgrid

Distribution system integrated community microgrids (CMGs) can partake in restoring loads during extended duration outages. At such times, the CMGs are challenged with limited resource availability, absence of robust grid support, and heightened demand-supply uncertainty. Here, this paper proposes a secure and adaptive three-stage hierarchical multi-timescale framework for scheduling and real-time (RT) dispatch of CMGs with hybrid PV systems to address these challenges. The framework enables the CMG to dynamically expand its boundary to support the neighboring grid sections and is adaptive to the changing forecast error impacts. The first stage solves a stochastic extended duration scheduling (EDS) problem to obtain referral plans for optimal resource rationing. The intermediate near-real-time (NRT) scheduling stage updates the EDS schedule closer to the dispatch time using new obtained forecasts, followed by the RT dispatch stage. To make the decisions more secure and robust against forecast errors, a novel concept called delayed recourse is designed. The approach is evaluated via numerical simulations on a modified IEEE 123-bus system and validated using OpenDSS and hardware-in-loop simulations. The results show superior performance in maximizing load supply and continuous secure distribution network operation under different operating scenarios.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗