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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1989

Flutter suppression control law synthesis for the active flexible wing model

The Active Flexible Wing Project is a collaborative effort between the NASA Langley Research Center and Rockwell International. The objectives are the validation of methodologies associated with mathematical modeling, flutter suppression control law development and digital implementation of the control system for application to flexible aircraft. A flutter suppression control law synthesis for this project is described. The state-space mathematical model used for the synthesis included ten flexible modes, four control surface modes and rational function approximation of the doublet-lattice unsteady aerodynamics. The design steps involved developing the full-order optimal control laws, reducing the order of the control law, and optimizing the reduced-order control law in both the continuous and the discrete domains to minimize stochastic response. System robustness was improved using singular value constraints. An 8th order robust control law was designed to increase the symmetric flutter dynamic pressure by 100 percent. Preliminary results are provided and experiences gained are discussed.

Mukhopadhyay, Vivek↗
NASA NTRS1996

Effect of Dust Coagulation Dynamics on the Geometry of Aggregates

Master equation gives a more fundamental description of stochastic coagulation processes rather than popular Smoluchowski's equation. In order to examine the effect of the dynamics on the geometry of resulting aggregates, we study Master equation with a rigorous Monte Carlo algorithm. It is found that Cluster-Cluster aggregation model is a good approximation of orderly growth and the aggregates have fluffy structures with a fractal dimension approx. 2. A scaling analysis of Smoluchowski's equation also supports this conclusion.

Nakamura, R.↗
NASA NTRS1997

First Test of Stochastic Growth Theory for Langmuir Waves in Earth's Foreshock

This paper presents the first test of whether stochastic growth theory (SGT) can explain the detailed characteristics of Langmuir-like waves in Earth's foreshock. A period with unusually constant solar wind magnetic field is analyzed. The observed distributions P(logE) of wave fields E for two intervals with relatively constant spacecraft location (DIFF) are shown to agree well with the fundamental prediction of SGT, that P(logE) is Gaussian in log E. This stochastic growth can be accounted for semi-quantitatively in terms of standard foreshock beam parameters and a model developed for interplanetary type III bursts. Averaged over the entire period with large variations in DIFF, the P(logE) distribution is a power-law with index approximately -1; this is interpreted in terms of convolution of intrinsic, spatially varying P(logE) distributions with a probability function describing ISEE's residence time at a given DIFF. Wave data from this interval thus provide good observational evidence that SGT can sometimes explain the clumping, burstiness, persistence, and highly variable fields of the foreshock Langmuir-like waves.

Cairns, Iver H.↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Data-Driven Methodology for Contextual Unit Commitment Using Regression Residuals

Day after day, system operators are faced with the challenge of taking unit commitment (UC) decisions under uncertain net load conditions. The standard operating procedure for taking UC decisions begins by leveraging auxiliary data on covariates (such as the day of the week or latest weather information) to generate a point prediction for net load, which is used in solving a deterministic UC problem. Such an approach, however, is known to deliver a notoriously poor out-of-sample (OOS) performance, as it completely disregards the stochastic nature of net load. While stochastic programming models explicitly represent uncertainty, they mostly do so using a generic set of scenarios that neglect covariate observations, squandering useful auxiliary data that could be harnessed to glean insights into uncertainty. In this article, we discuss a contextual stochastic optimization approach to UC, which effectively exploits covariate observations while explicitly assessing uncertainty so as to boost the OOS performance of UC decisions. The key thrust of our approach is to leverage regression models, along with their empirical residuals, to set up and solve sample average approximation problems. Not only do we prove that our approach satisfies the requisite conditions for asymptotic optimality and consistency laid out in (Kannan et al., 2022), but we also assess its performance on several case studies conducted using real-world data collected in California ISO and New York ISO grids. In conclusion, results show that the proposed approach can significantly improve OOS performance compared to alternative methods proposed in the literature under varying dataset sizes.

Yurdakul, Ogun↗
DOE OSTI2021

Plateau Phenomenon in Gradient Descent Training of RELU Networks: Explanation, Quantification, and Avoidance

The ability of neural networks to provide ‘best in class’ approximation across a wide range of applications is well-documented. Nevertheless, the powerful expressivity of neural networks comes to naught if one is unable to effectively train (choose) the parameters defining the network. In general, neural networks are trained by gradient descent type optimization methods,a stochastic variant thereof. In practice, such methods result in the loss function decreases rapidly at the beginning of training but then, after a relatively small number of steps, significantly slow down. The loss may even appear to stagnate over the period of a large number of epochs, only to then suddenly start to decrease fast again for no apparent reason. This so-called plateau phenomenon manifests itself in many learning tasks. The present work aims to identify and quantify the root causes of plateau phenomenon.analysis is carried out in the setting of univariate ReLU networks. No assumptions are made on the number of neurons relative to the number of training data, and our results hold for both the lazy and adaptive regimes. Here, the main findings are: plateaux correspond to periods during which activation patterns remain constant, where activation pattern refers to the number of data points that activate a given neuron; quantification of convergence of the gradient flow dynamics; and, characterization stationary points in terms solutions of local least squares regression lines over subsets of the training data. Based on these conclusions, we propose a new iterative training method, the Active Neuron Least Squares (ANLS), characterised by the explicit adjustment of the activation pattern at each step, which is designed to enable a quick exit from a plateau. Illustrative numerical examples are included throughout.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS1977

Navigation capability for an ion drive rendezvous with Halley's Comet

An analysis has been conducted in connection with plans for a study of Halley's Comet during its 1986 apparition. The use of low-thrust vehicles, utilizing an ion drive system, is being considered for a comet rendezvous mission. A preliminary trajectory for the Halley rendezvous mission calls for launch on June 20, 1982, followed by rendezvous on December 21, 1985. The navigation analysis described focuses on the terminal approach to Halley, the 60-day period preceding rendezvous. Navigation analysis assumptions are examined, taking into account navigation error sources, radio tracking, onboard optical data, earth-based comet observations, and orbit determination and guidance strategies. The preliminary mission design considers a rendezvous at approximately 56,000 km from the comet nucleus (6,000 km outside the dust envelope). Navigation performance is measured in terms of comet-relative position and velocity errors at encounter. Variations to the baseline navigation study provide illustrations concerning the close link between delivery accuracy and stochastic thrust errors.

Thornton, C. L.↗
NASA NTRS2017

Time and Measurement Days

Questions in data analysis involving the concepts of time and measurement are often pushed into the background or reserved for a philosophical discussion. Some examples are: a) Is causality a consequence of the laws of physics, or can the arrow of time be reversed? b) Can we determine the arrow of time of an event? c) Do we need the continuum hypothesis for the underlying function in any measurement process? d) Can we say anything about the analyticity of the underlying process of an event? e) Would it be valid to model a non-analytical process as function of time? f) What are the implications of all these questions for classical Fourier techniques? However, in the age of big data gathered either from space missions supplying ultra-precise long time series, or e.g. LIGO data from the ground, the moment to bring these questions to the foreground seems arrived. The limitations of our understanding of some fundamental processes is emphasized by the lack of solution for problems open for more than 2 decades, such as the non-detection of solar g-modes, or the modal identification of main sequence stellar pulsators like delta Scuti stars. Flicker noise or 1/f noise, for example, attributed in solar-like stars to granulation, is analyzed mostly only to apply noise reduction techniques, neither considering the classical problem of 1/f noise that was introduced a 100 years ago, nor taking into account ergodic or non-ergodic solutions that make inapplicable spectral analysis techniques in practice. This topic was discussed by Nicholas W. Watkins during the ITISE meeting held in Granada in 2016. There he presented preliminary results of his research on Mandelbrot's related work. We reproduce here his quotation of Mandelbrot (1999) "There is a sharp contrast between a highly anomalous ("non-white") noise that proceeds in ordinary clock time and a noise whose principal anomaly is that it is restricted to fractal time", suggesting a connection with the above proposed topics that could be phrased as the following additional questions:a) Is self-organized criticality (SOC) frequent in astrophysical phenomena? b) Could all fractals in nature be considered stochastic? c) Could we establish mathematical/physical relationships between chaotic and fractal behaviors in time series? d) Could the differences between fractals and chaos in terms of analyticity be used to understand the residuals of the fitting of stellar light curves? In this meeting we would like to approximate these problems from a holistic and multidisciplinary perspective, taking into account not only technical issues but also the deeper implications. In particular the concept of connectivity (introduced in Pascual-Granado et al. A&A, 2015) could be used to implement, within the framework of ARMA processes, an "arrow of time" (see attached document), and so studying the possible implications in the concept of time as envisaged by Watkins.

data analysis↗
DOE OSTI2023

A test of gravity with Pulsar Timing Arrays

Abstract A successful measurement of the Stochastic Gravitational Wave Background (SGWB) in Pulsar Timing Arrays (PTAs) would open up a new window through which to test the predictions of General Relativity (GR). We consider how these measurements might reveal deviations from GR by studying the overlap reduction function — the quantity that in GR is approximated by the Hellings-Downs curve — in some sample modifications of gravity, focusing on the generic prediction of a modified dispersion relation for gravitational waves. We find a distinct signature of such modifications to GR — a shift in the minimum angle of the angular distribution — and demonstrate that this shift is quantitatively sensitive to any change in the phase velocity. In a given modification of gravity, this result can be used, in some regions of parameter space, to distinguish the effect of a modified dispersion relation from that due to the presence of extra polarization modes.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗
DOE OSTI2020

Modeling Streamflow and Sediment Transport Under Current and Future Climates at the West Valley Site - 20231

Performance Assessment models often require inputs representing specific hydrologic processes such as streamflow and sediment flux. This paper details the development of a process-level hydrologic model and its use in a Probabilistic Performance Assessment (PPA) system-level model for the West Valley Site in western New York. For this PPA model, a watershed model was developed using SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) and used to evaluate water and sediment fluxes in nearby streams draining the Site. A particular challenge of probabilistic modeling over long periods of time is scaling parameters appropriately so that outcomes are not grossly over- or underestimated. This challenge is especially important when the spatial and temporal scales of process and system level models differ. In this instance, the SWAT watershed model and GoldSim PPA model have similar spatial scales of stream reaches and sub-catchments within a single watershed (approximately hundreds to tens of thousands of square meters, but the temporal scales differ considerably. The SWAT model calculates streamflow and sediment transport rates at the daily scale, while the PPA model requires long-term average values that are applied over hundreds to thousands of year-long periods. As such, distributions of daily climatic parameters such as average precipitation rate, temperature, wind speed, and relative humidity were developed to force a transient SWAT model that captures the dynamic behavior of the watershed in response to daily changes in the weather. Output from the model, which includes stream flow (m{sup 3}/y) and sediment transport rate (Mg/y) is then averaged over a 100-year period as an approximation for the long-term average values which can be applied in GoldSim. A single SWAT model was run 5000 times with varying climatic inputs and deterministic soil, land use, and elevation data, and the range of outputs were compiled into a distribution which can be implemented stochastically into the PPA Model. Additionally, this paper includes a high-level discussion of how changes in future climate affect weather input distributions, and a summary of how those changes in weather affect the outcomes from the SWAT model and the inputs into the PPA model. In this analysis, future climate distributions were developed based on climate research documenting the expected changes to precipitation and temperature in western New York. The 5,000 SWAT simulations were then repeated with these future climate distributions, and the resulting output was implemented into the PPA Model as hydrologic conditions under a future climate. In the current version of the PPA Model, hydrologic parameters change linearly from the 'current climate' conditions to the 'future climate' conditions over a period of 100 years, after which they remain constant. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2022

Learning the temporal evolution of multivariate densities via normalizing flows

In this work, we propose a method to learn multivariate probability distributions using sample path data from stochastic differential equations. Specifically, we consider temporally evolving probability distributions (e.g., those produced by integrating local or nonlocal Fokker–Planck equations). Here, we analyze this evolution through machine learning assisted construction of a time-dependent mapping that takes a reference distribution (say, a Gaussian) to each and every instance of our evolving distribution. If the reference distribution is the initial condition of a Fokker–Planck equation, what we learn is the time-T map of the corresponding solution. Specifically, the learned map is a multivariate normalizing flow that deforms the support of the reference density to the support of each and every density snapshot in time. We demonstrate that this approach can approximate probability density function evolutions in time from observed sampled data for systems driven by both Brownian and Lévy noise. We present examples with two- and three-dimensional, uni- and multimodal distributions to validate the method.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Photoinduced correlations in stochastic dynamics of a solid-state ionic conductor

Photoexcitation by ultrashort laser pulses plays a crucial role in controlling reaction pathways, creating nonequilibrium material properties, and probing complex molecular dynamics. The photoresponse following a laser pulse is generally nonidentical between exposures due to spatiotemporal fluctuations or the stochastic nature of dynamical pathways. However, most ultrafast pump-probe experiments struggle to distinguish intrinsic sample fluctuations from extrinsic apparatus noise, often missing deviations from the averaged response. Leveraging the stability and high photon flux of time-resolved X-ray micro-diffraction at a synchrotron, we characterized stochastic photoinduced dynamics in a solid-state ionic conductor. By analyzing temporal evolutions of the lattice parameter of a single grain, we found that shot-to-shot fluctuations are not independent. Instead, correlations exist between nonequilibrium lattice trajectories following adjacent shots, with a characteristic correlation length of approximately 1500 shots, corresponding to an energy barrier of 0.4 ± 0.1 eV, close to the activation energy of lithium-ion diffusion.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

A General Framework for Bounding Approximate Dynamic Programming Schemes

For years, there has been interest in approximation methods for solving dynamic programming problems, because of the inherent complexity in computing optimal solutions characterized by Bellman’s principle of optimality. A wide range of approximate dynamic programming (ADP) methods now exists. It is of great interest to guarantee that the performance of an ADP scheme be at least some known fraction, say ß , of optimal. This letter introduces a general approach to bounding the performance of ADP methods, in this sense, in the stochastic setting. The approach is based on new results for bounding greedy solutions in string optimization problems, where one has to choose a string (ordered set) of actions to maximize an objective function. This bounding technique is inspired by submodularity theory, but submodularity is not required for establishing bounds. Instead, the bounding is based on quantifying certain notions of curvature of string functions; the smaller the curvatures the better the bound. The key insight is that any ADP scheme is a greedy scheme for some surrogate string objective function that coincides in its optimal solution and value with those of the original optimal control problem. The ADP scheme then yields to the bounding technique mentioned above, and the curvatures of the surrogate objective determine the value ß of the bound. The surrogate objective and its curvatures depend on the specific ADP.

discrete event systems↗
NASA NTRS1976

Analysis of bilinear noise models in circuits and devices

There are a number of applications in which linear noise models are inappropriate. In the paper, the use of bilinear noise models in circuits and devices is considered. Several physical problems are studied in this framework. These include circuits involving varying parameters (such as variable resistance circuits constructed using field-effect transistors), the effect of switching jitter on sampled data system performance and communication systems involving voltage-controlled oscillators and phase-lock loops. In addition, several types of analytical techniques for stochastic bilinear systems are considered. Specifically, the moment equations of Brockett for bilinear systems driven by white noise are discussed, and closed-form expressions for certain bilinear systems (those that evolve an Abelian or solvable Lie groups) driven by white or colored noise are derived. In addition, an approximate statistical technique involving the use of harmonic expansions is described.

Willsky, A. S.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Social network structure and the spread of complex contagions from a population genetics perspective

Ideas, behaviors, and opinions spread through social networks. If the probability of spreading to a new individual is a non-linear function of the fraction of the individuals’ affected neighbors, such a spreading process becomes a “complex contagion”. This non-linearity does not typically appear with physically spreading infections, but instead can emerge when the concept that is spreading is subject to game theoretical considerations (e.g. for choices of strategy or behavior) or psychological effects such as social reinforcement and other forms of peer influence (e.g. for ideas, preferences, or opinions). Here we study how the stochastic dynamics of such complex contagions are affected by the underlying network structure. Motivated by simulations of complex contagions on real social networks, we present a framework for analyzing the statistics of contagions with arbitrary non-linear adoption probabilities based on the mathematical tools of population genetics. The central idea is to use an effective lower-dimensional diffusion process to approximate the statistics of the contagion. This leads to a tradeoff between the effects of ”selection” (microscopic tendencies for an idea to spread or die out), random drift, and network structure. Our framework illustrates intuitively several key properties of complex contagions: stronger community structure and network sparsity can significantly enhance the spread, while broad degree distributions dampen the effect of selection compared to random drift. Finally, we show that some structural features can exhibit critical values that demarcate regimes where global contagions become possible for networks of arbitrary size. Our results draw parallels between the competition of genes in a population and memes in a world of minds and ideas. Our tools provide insight into the spread of information, behaviors, and ideas via social influence, and highlight the role of macroscopic network structure in determining their fate.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Sequential Learning of Active Subspaces

This study shows that in recent years, active subspace methods (ASMs) have become a popular means of performing subspace sensitivity analysis on black-box functions. Naively applied, however, ASMs require gradient evaluations of the target function. In the event of noisy, expensive, or stochastic simulators, evaluating gradients via finite differencing may be infeasible. In such cases, often a surrogate model is employed, on which finite differencing is performed. When the surrogate model is a Gaussian process (GP), we show that the ASM estimator is available in closed form, rendering the finite-difference approximation unnecessary. We use our closed-form solution to develop acquisition functions focused on sequential learning tailored to sensitivity analysis on top of ASMs. We also show that the traditional ASM estimator may be viewed as a method of moments estimator for a certain class of GPs. We demonstrate how uncertainty on GP hyperparameters may be propagated to uncertainty on the sensitivity analysis, allowing model-based confidence intervals on the active subspace. Our methodological developments are illustrated on several examples.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS2004

Improving Project Management with Simulation and Completion Distribution Functions

Despite the critical importance of project completion timeliness, management practices in place today remain inadequate for addressing the persistent problem of project completion tardiness. A major culprit in late projects is uncertainty, which most, if not all, projects are inherently subject to. This uncertainty resides in the estimates for activity durations, the occurrence of unplanned and unforeseen events, and the availability of critical resources. In response to this problem, this research developed a comprehensive simulation based methodology for conducting quantitative project completion time risk analysis. It is called the Project Assessment by Simulation Technique (PAST). This new tool enables project stakeholders to visualize uncertainty or risk, i.e. the likelihood of their project completing late and the magnitude of the lateness, by providing them with a completion time distribution function of their projects. Discrete event simulation is used within PAST to determine the completion distribution function for the project of interest. The simulation is populated with both deterministic and stochastic elements. The deterministic inputs include planned project activities, precedence requirements, and resource requirements. The stochastic inputs include activity duration growth distributions, probabilities for events that can impact the project, and other dynamic constraints that may be placed upon project activities and milestones. These stochastic inputs are based upon past data from similar projects. The time for an entity to complete the simulation network, subject to both the deterministic and stochastic factors, represents the time to complete the project. Repeating the simulation hundreds or thousands of times allows one to create the project completion distribution function. The Project Assessment by Simulation Technique was demonstrated to be effective for the on-going NASA project to assemble the International Space Station. Approximately $500 million per month is being spent on this project, which is scheduled to complete by 2010. NASA project stakeholders participated in determining and managing completion distribution functions produced from PAST. The first result was that project stakeholders improved project completion risk awareness. Secondly, using PAST, mitigation options were analyzed to improve project completion performance and reduce total project cost.

Cates, Grant R.↗
NASA NTRS1975

Optimization of structures undergoing harmonic or stochastic excitation

The optimal design was investigated of simple structures subjected to dynamic loads, with constraints on the structures' responses. Optimal designs were examined for one dimensional structures excited by harmonically oscillating loads, similar structures excited by white noise, and a wing in the presence of continuous atmospheric turbulence. The first has constraints on the maximum allowable stress while the last two place bounds on the probability of failure of the structure. Approximations were made to replace the time parameter with a frequency parameter. For the first problem, this involved the steady state response, and in the remaining cases, power spectral techniques were employed to find the root mean square values of the responses. Optimal solutions were found by using computer algorithms which combined finite elements methods with optimization techniques based on mathematical programming. It was found that the inertial loads for these dynamic problems result in optimal structures that are radically different from those obtained for structures loaded statically by forces of comparable magnitude.

Johnson, E. H.↗
DOE OSTI2023

EELS Studies of Cerium Electrolyte Reveal Substantial Solute Concentration Effects in Graphene Liquid Cells

Graphene liquid cell transmission electron microscopy is a powerful technique to visualize nanoscale dynamics and transformations at atomic resolution. However, the solution in liquid cells is known to be affected by radiolysis, and the stochastic formation of graphene liquid cells raises questions about the solution chemistry in individual pockets. In this study, electron energy loss spectroscopy (EELS) was used to evaluate a model encapsulated solution, aqueous CeCl 3 . First, the ratio between the O K-edge and Ce M-edge was used to approximate the concentration of cerium salt in the graphene liquid cell. It was determined that the ratio between oxygen and cerium was orders of magnitude lower than what is expected for a dilute solution, indicating that the encapsulated solution is highly concentrated. To probe how this affects the chemistry within graphene liquid cells, the oxidation of Ce 3+ was measured using time-resolved parallel EELS. Here, it was determined that Ce 3+ oxidizes faster under high electron fluxes, but reaches the same steady-state Ce 4+ concentration regardless of flux. The time-resolved concentration profiles enabled direct comparison to radiolysis models, which indicate rate constants and g-values of certain molecular species are substantially different in the highly concentrated environment. Finally, electron flux-dependent gold nanocrystal etching trajectories showed that gold nanocrystals etch faster at higher electron fluxes, correlating well with the Ce 3+ oxidation kinetics. Understanding the effects of the highly concentrated solution in graphene liquid cells will provide new insight on previous studies and may open up opportunities to systematically study systems in highly concentrated solutions at high resolution.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗