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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2007

Science Objectives of the JEM EUSO Mission on International Space Station

JEM-EUSO space observatory is planned with a very large exposure factor which will exceed the critical exposure factor required for observing the most of the sources within the propagational horizon of about one hundred Mpc. The main science objective of JEM-EUSO is the source-identifying astronomy in particle channel with extremey-high-energy particles. Quasi-linear tracking of the source objects through galactic magnetic field should become feasible at energy > 10(exp 20) eV for all-sky. The individual GZK profile in high statistics experiments should differ from source to source due to different distance unless Lorentz invariance is somehow limited. hi addition, JEM-EUSO has three exploratory test observations: (i), extremely high energy neutrinos beginning at E > 10(exp 19) eV: neutrinos as being expected to have a slowly increasing cross section in the Standard Model, and in particular, hundreds of times more in the extra-dimension models. (ii). fundamental physics at extreme Super LHC (Large Hadronic Collider) energies with the hierarchical unified energy much below the GUT scale, and (iii). global atmospheric observation, including large-scale and local plasma discharges, night-glow, meteorites, and others..

Takahashi, Yoshiyuki↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Prospects for Cross-Correlations of UHECR Events with Astrophysical Sources with Upcoming Space-Based Experiments

Ultra-high energy cosmic rays (UHECRs) are the messengers of the most extreme physics in the cosmos; however, efforts to identify their origins have thus far been thwarted by the fact that they don’t point back to their sources. Using statistical studies cross-correlating UHECR arrival directions with astrophysical catalogs, the ground-based Pierre Auger Observatory has reported hints of a correlation with nearby starburst galaxies, as well as lower-significance correlations with other classes of astrophysical sources. Space-based UHECR experiments, such as POEMMA and ZAP, will monitor large interaction volumes on the Earth or the Moon. Within a few years of mission operation time, both missions will achieve unprecedented exposures at energies above40EeV across the entire sky. In this contribution, we present studies of the cross-correlation between UHECR event arrival directions and astrophysical catalogs as motivated by expectations for the detector performance for POEMMA and ZAP. We find that both POEMMA and ZAP will achieve 5σ discovery reach for many plausible astrophysical scenarios.

Tonia M Venters↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Novel Machine Learning Method for Surface PM2.5 Estimations from Geostationary Satellites

Particulate matter (PM) with a diameter of less or equal to 2.5 μm, known as PM , affects human health as it penetrates the respiratory system. The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) measures the atmospheric concentration of PM using air quality monitors stationed throughout the Continental United States (CONUS). Such measurements are points on a spatial domain and therefore, might not be representative of the air quality at nearby areas considering that the composition of the atmosphere is highly variable from place to place. Satellite based AOD permits a spatially uniform means of estimating PM and new geostationary satellites provide high temporal and spatial resolution estimation of AOD. However, the concentration of PM is non-linearly dependent on other atmospheric parameters that include relative humidity, temperature, and height of the planetary boundary layer. This information may be estimated at similar spatial and temporal resolutions as AOD from numerical modeling such as from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model which resolves near real-time atmospheric conditions over the CONUS. The estimation of PM concentration is a multi-parametric problem that considers the effect of temporal dependencies among the different parameters. Deep learning approaches are appropriate for such complex estimation problems as they intrinsically capture relations among multiple non-linear parameters. This study compares deep-learning methods to traditional regression analysis to demonstrate the capabilities of these methods in predicting PM2.5 concentrations. Additionally, a novel ensemble learning approach is employed to identify scientific processes that could further improve the estimation of PM concentration. Utilizing Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural networks, which are suitable for multivariate time series estimation problems as they are capable of learning long-term dependencies, individual models are created for each EPA station and trained on the aforementioned dataset collocated over each station. Individual station models are merged if the model's performance is improved by reducing the root mean squared error (RMSE) metric. This ensemble training method ultimately reduces the RMSE value. Evaluation of these results provide insights into physical processes and related observable parameters that may contribute to PM concentrations. Identified parameters evaluated to be statistically different between the merged and unmerged models are expected to improve overall performance. These new parameters are then utilized for reevaluation of the deep learning methods with an extreme gradient boosting model with an RMSE of 5.5 providing the best results.

George Priftis↗
NASA NTRS2024

Landslide Hazard is Projected to Increase Across High Mountain Asia

High Mountain Asia has long been known as a hotspot for landslide risk, and studies have suggested that landslide hazard is likely to increase in this region over the coming decades. Extreme precipitation may become more frequent, with a nonlinear response relative to increasing global temperatures. However, these changes are geographically varied. This article maps probable changes to landslide hazard, as shown by a landslide hazard indicator (LHI) derived from downscaled precipitation and temperature. In order to capture the nonlinear response of slopes to extreme precipitation, a simple machine-learning model was trained on a database of landslides across High Mountain Asia to develop a regional LHI. This model was applied to statistically downscaled data from the 30 members of the Seamless System for Prediction and Earth System Research large ensembles to produce a range of possible outcomes under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 2-4.5 and 5-8.5. The LHI reveals that landslide hazard will increase in most parts of High Mountain Asia. Absolute increases will be highest in already hazardous areas such as the Central Himalaya, but relative change is greatest on the Tibetan Plateau. Even in regions where landslide hazard declines by year 2100, it will increase prior to the mid-century mark. However, the seasonal cycle of landslide occurrence will not change greatly across High Mountain Asia. Although substantial uncertainty remains in these projections, the overall direction of change seems reliable. These findings highlight the importance of continued analysis to inform disaster risk reduction strategies for stakeholders across High Mountain Asia.

Thomas A Stanley↗
DOE OSTI2020

The Argonne SuperGel for CBRN Decontamination - 20160

The Argonne SuperGel was developed between 2003 and 2015 to fill a gap in our nation's capability to quickly decontaminate important structures following a radiological or nuclear release event. Specifically, the decontamination technology was developed to minimize damage to monuments, high valued structures, and critical infrastructure while reducing environmental and health impacts. An important criterion during its development, common reagents were employed that could be easily acquired in order to minimize the timeline for its deployment. Its current formulation uses off-the-shelf super-absorbing hydrogels common to the food and agricultural industry and common salts. Over the years, two formulations of the Argonne SuperGel have been developed to specifically target radioactive cesium contaminations and then, more generically, actinide and fission product contaminations. A biodegradable derivative of phosphoric acid is used in small amounts to promote the removal of insoluble actinide species. The original order of unit operations for the SuperGel technology was 1) applying the wash solution to promote mobility of the contaminants on the surface, 2) applying the hydrogel to absorb the wash solution and contaminants, and 3) removing the hydrogel for disposal. During the course of our studies, we tested a new formulation of the gel technology that eliminated the need for a separate step to apply the wash solution without a compromise in decontamination factors. Greater than 70% and >95% of Cs-137 were removed from concrete and tile coupons, respectively, after two decontaminations, with the best results using wash solutions of 1.0 M KCl and 1.0 M NH{sub 4}Cl formulations. We found no statistical difference between results at 30 deg. C and 40 deg. C or at 70% and 90% relative humidity. We tested the gel under strong UV irradiation to simulate extreme environments. While a tropical noontime UV flux did not adversely affect the gel system decontamination of Cs-137 from concrete or tile coupons, the noontime flux resulted in significant dehydration of the gel after two hours of constant exposure. The rehydration of the gel by the humid air (at 90% humidity and 40 deg. C) was slow and may not be sufficient to offset dehydration by the sun. Americium decontamination from concrete was 70% after optimizing the phosphoric acid derivative and carbonate salt concentration in the wash solution. Since its development, we have had the opportunity to test the SuperGel in the removal of legacy contaminations in hot cell facilities and former glovebox facilities at Argonne. This has provided a unique opportunity to evaluate the SuperGel on a range of contaminants outside the original specifications for its use. We will report on the origin of the gel formulation, some highlighted experimental data including independent testing by the US EPA which has never been reported, and its efficacy for removing legacy alpha contaminations and its potential use for removal of chemical and biological hazardous agents. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
NASA NTRS2014

Reply to Comment by Laprise on 'the Added Value to Global Model Projections of Climate Change by Dynamical Downscaling: a Case Study over the Continental U.S. Using the GISS-ModelE2 and WRF Models'

In his comment, Laprise raises several points that we agree merit consideration. His primary critique is that our study [Racherla et al., 2012] tested the ability of the WRF regional climate model to reproduce historical temperature and precipitation change relative to the driving global climate model (GCM) using only a single simulation rather than an ensemble. He asserts that the observed changes are smaller than the internal variability in the climate system (i.e., not statistically significant) and that thus a single simulation should not necessarily be able to capture the observations. Laprise points out that the statistical signal is reduced for a multi-decadal trend such as the one we analyzed in comparison with mean climatology and cites two studies showing that for particular climate parameters it can take any years for a signal to be discerned over internal variability. He states that The results of theexperiment as designed were strongly influenced by the presence of internal variability and sampling errors,which masked the rather small climate changes that may have occurred as a consequence of changes inforcing during the period considered. While Laprise discusses statistics in general terms at some length, for the actual climate trends examined in our study, he offers no evidence that the forced signal was smallcompared with internal variability. The two studies he cites [de Ela et al., 2013; Maraun, 2013] do not provide convincing evidence as they concern climate variables averaged over different times and areas. One in fact examines extreme precipitation events, which by definition are rare and thus have a lower significance level. We accept the general point that it is important to consider internal variability, and as noted in our paper we agree that an ensemble of simulations is in principle an optimal, though computationally expensive, approach. While we did not present the statistical significance of the observations in our original paper, we have now evaluated those for the regional temperature trends used in our study to evaluate the added value of WRF and thus can analyze data as to the magnitude of the trends with respect to internal variability.

climate↗
DOE OSTI2020

Delegated Regressor, A Robust Approach for Automated Anomaly Detection in the Soil Radon Time Series Data

We propose a new method based on the idea of delegating regressors for predicting the soil radon gas concentration (SRGC) and anomalies in radon or any other time series data. The proposed method is compared to different traditional boosting e.g., Extreme Gradient Boosting (EGB) and simple regression methods e.g., support vector regressors with linear kernel and radial kernel in terms of accurate predictions. R language has been used for the statistical analysis of radon time series (RTS) data. The results obtained show that the proposed methodology predicts SRGC more accurately when compared to different traditional boosting and regression methods. The best correlation is found between the actual and predicted radon concentration for window size of 2 i.e., two days before and after the start of seismic activities. RTS data was collected from 05 February 2017 to 16 February 2018, including 7 seismic events recorded during the study period. Findings of study show that the proposed methodology predicts the SRGC with more precision, for all the window sizes, by overlapping predicted with the actual radon time series concentrations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Atomic cluster expansion potential for large scale simulations of hydrocarbons under shock compression

We present an Atomic Cluster Expansion (ACE) machine learned potential developed for high-fidelity atomistic simulations of hydrocarbons, targeting pressures and temperatures near and above supercritical fluid regimes for molecular fluids. A diverse set of stoichiometries were covered in training, including 1:0 (pure carbon), 1:4 (methane), and 1:1 (benzene), and rich bonding environments sampled at supercritical temperatures, hydrogen rich, reactive mixtures where metastable stoichiometries arise, including 1:2 (ethylene) and 1:3 (ethane). A high-fidelity training database was constructed by performing large-scale quantum molecular dynamic simulations [density functional theory (DFT) MD] of diamond, graphite, methane, and benzene. A novel approach to selecting structures from DFT MD is also presented, which allows for the rapid selection of unique DFT MD frames from complex trajectories. Comparisons to DFT and experimental data demonstrate that the presented ACE potential accurately reproduces isotherms, carbon melting curves, radial distribution functions, and shock Hugoniots for carbon and hydrocarbon systems for pressures up to 100 GPa and temperatures up to 6000 K for hydrocarbon systems and up to 9000 K for pure carbon systems. This work delivers a potential that can be used for accurate, large-scale simulations of shocked hydrocarbons and demonstrates a methodology for fitting and validating machine learning interatomic potentials to complex molecular environments, which can be applied to energetic materials in future works.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Modest functional diversity decline and pronounced composition shifts of microbial communities in a mixed waste-contaminated aquifer

Background: Microbial taxonomic diversity declines with increased environmental stress. Yet, few studies have explored whether phylogenetic and functional diversities track taxonomic diversity along the stress gradient. Here, we investigated microbial communities within an aquifer in Oak Ridge, Tennessee, USA, which is characterized by a broad spectrum of stressors, including extremely high levels of nitrate, heavy metals like cadmium and chromium, radionuclides such as uranium, and extremely low pH (< 3). Results: Both taxonomic and phylogenetic α-diversities were reduced in the most impacted wells, while the decline in functional α-diversity was modest and statistically insignificant, indicating a more robust buffering capacity to environmental stress. Differences in functional gene composition (i.e., functional β-diversity) were pronounced in highly contaminated wells, while convergent functional gene composition was observed in uncontaminated wells. The relative abundances of most carbon degradation genes were decreased in contaminated wells, but genes associated with denitrification, adenylylsulfate reduction, and sulfite reduction were increased. Compared to taxonomic and phylogenetic compositions, environmental variables played a more significant role in shaping functional gene composition, suggesting that niche selection could be more closely related to microbial functionality than taxonomy. Conclusions: Overall, we demonstrated that despite a reduced taxonomic α-diversity, microbial communities under stress maintained functionality underpinned by environmental selection.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1984

Statistical analysis of direct-strike lightning data (1980 to 1982)

Electromagnetic measurements are being made during direct lightning strikes by NASA Langley Center using a specially instrumented F-106B aircraft. The research is to aid refinement, characterization, and understanding of the lightning-aircraft interaction process and the lightning hazards to aircraft. Statistical methods are applied to characterize some aspects of the lightning data obtained from 176 strikes to the aircraft. Specific attention is given to the problem of estimating the upper extreme quantiles of the distributions of peak-to-peak values for currents and rates of change in the magnetic and flux densities. A formal treatment via a general location-scale family of models allows the estimation method to be adapted to the realized shapes the distributions. The shapes are examined by probability plotting methods.

Lee, L. D.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Microwave Enhancement in Coronal Holes: Structure, Variability and Magnetic Nature

The microwave enhancement in coronal holes in comparison with the quiet Sun is a distinct and easily observed signature related to the magnetic activity. This has proven to be a new tool to study the solar atmospheric layer where the fast solar wind originates. We have developed a catalog of a large number of coronal holes using images obtained by SOHO's Extreme-ultraviolet Imaging Telescope in EUV and by the Nobeyama radioheliograph in microwaves. We also have high resolution longitudinal magnetograms obtained by SOHO's Michelson Doppler Imager. We present the statistical properties of the microwave enhancements and discuss the small-scale dynamics as revealed by the magnetograms and radioheliograms. We also discuss the geoeffectiveness of these coronal holes.

Gopalswamy, N.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Specification of ISS Plasma Environment Variability

Quantifying spacecraft charging risks and associated hazards for the International Space Station (ISS) requires a plasma environment specification for the natural variability of ionospheric temperature (Te) and density (Ne). Empirical ionospheric specification and forecast models such as the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI) model typically only provide long term (seasonal) mean Te and Ne values for the low Earth orbit environment. This paper describes a statistical analysis of historical ionospheric low Earth orbit plasma measurements from the AE-C, AE-D, and DE-2 satellites used to derive a model of deviations of observed data values from IRI-2001 estimates of Ne, Te parameters for each data point to provide a statistical basis for modeling the deviations of the plasma environment from the IRI model output. Application of the deviation model with the IRI-2001 output yields a method for estimating extreme environments for the ISS spacecraft charging analysis.

Minow, Joseph I.↗
DOE OSTI2024

DiffESM: Conditional Emulation of Temperature and Precipitation in Earth System Models With 3D Diffusion Models

Earth system models (ESMs) are essential for understanding the interaction between human activities and the Earth's climate. However, the computational demands of ESMs often limit the number of simulations that can be run, hindering the robust analysis of risks associated with extreme weather events. While low-cost climate emulators have emerged as an alternative to emulate ESMs and enable rapid analysis of future climate, many of these emulators only provide output on at most a monthly frequency. This temporal resolution is insufficient for analyzing events that require daily characterization, such as heat waves or heavy precipitation. We propose using diffusion models, a class of generative deep learning models, to effectively downscale ESM output from a monthly to a daily frequency. Trained on a handful of ESM realizations, reflecting a wide range of radiative forcings, our DiffESM model takes monthly mean precipitation or temperature as input, and is capable of producing daily values with statistical characteristics close to ESM output. Combined with a low-cost emulator providing monthly means, this approach requires only a small fraction of the computational resources needed to run a large ensemble. We evaluate model behavior using a number of extreme metrics, showing that DiffESM closely matches the spatio-temporal behavior of the ESM output it emulates in terms of the frequency and spatial characteristics of phenomena such as heat waves, dry spells, or rainfall intensity.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Wavelength Calibration of the Full-sun Ultraviolet Rocket SpecTrograph: (FURST)

The Sun has a well-known periodicity in sunspot number and magnetic field variation. The underlying cause of this 11-year cycle is not fully understood and has yet to be connected with those processes in other stellar objects. The Full-sun Ultraviolet Rocket SpecTrograph (FURST) is a sounding rocket payload being developed by Montana State University (MSU) alongside the Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) solar physics group. Scheduled to launch from White Sands Missile Range (WSMR) in 2022, this instrument is unique in that it will provide the connection between stellar observatories with measurements of our Sun. It will achieve this through extremely high-resolution full-disk spectroscopy in EUV. We aim to obtain a wavelength resolution R > 10,000 in the 115 - 181 nm range, on par with that of the Hubble (HST) Space Telescope Imaging Spectrograph (STIS). The Lyman Alpha line (121 nm) is known to oversaturate most CCD electronics and is of particular challenge for this spectral range. In addition, this resolution goal will allow us to study the 3 km/s motion (a Doppler-shift of about 0.01 Angstroms) of the relatively low-temperature plasma in the chromosphere and lower corona. This paper will present the results of our simulation of the diagnostic lamp signal to be used in this wavelength calibration. To test the viability of this precise of a device, we are building a collimator capable of calibrating the FURST instrument under these strict radiometric requirements. By way of a diagnostic lamp simulation, we will account for photon noise, CCD electronic readout noise, and statistical error. These will lead to the development of our pre- and post-launch calibration plan. Future work includes absolute radiometric and wavelength calibration with this new collimator. In addition, the ability of FURST to measure extremely small Doppler-shifts will provide capabilities for planetary atmospheric scientists. This impact is coupled with the diverse international partnership created by the closely-knit Sounding Rocket teams across the globe. These Sounding Rockets have an even broader impact, as they encourage future satellite missions under the prospect of long-term observations.

FURST↗
DOE OSTI2025

The global Sahel monsoon ocean-pressure index reconciles its regional and large-scale features

Monitoring Sahelian rainfall variability is increasingly critical as climate extremes intensify across the region. Here, we develop the Sahelian Monsoon Ocean-Pressure Index (SMOPI), a novel global synthetic indicator constructed from five dynamically coherent sea-level pressure regions statistically linked to June-September Sahel monsoon rainfall. SMOPI captures intra-seasonal and interannual variability, and crucially, reflects the influence of both regional processes and large-scale teleconnections on monsoon dynamics. It aligns with the dominant rainfall variability mode in reanalyses and 29 CMIP6 models. Strong/positive SMOPI phases coincide with wet years and are associated with enhanced convergence, favorable jet configurations, and robust Pacific, Atlantic, and Indian Ocean teleconnections. Conversely, weak/negative SMOPI phases correspond to drought conditions and divergent moisture fluxes. SMOPI exposes model failures in reproducing historical droughts and offers new physical insights into rainfall-driving mechanisms. It stands out as a scalable, potentially transferable diagnostic tool for monitoring/forecasting and evaluating Sahelian monsoon rainfall under global warming.

Tamoffo, Alain T. [Helmholtz-Zentrum Hereon GmbH, ↗
NASA NTRS2016

Evaluation of the Sensitivity of the Amazonian Diurnal Cycle to Convective Intensity in Reanalyses

Model parameterizations of tropical deep convection are unable to reproduce the observed diurnal and spatial variability of convection in the Amazon, which contributes to climatological biases in the water cycle and energy budget. Convective intensity regimes are defined using percentiles of daily minimum 3-hourly averaged outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) from Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES). This study compares the observed spatial variability of convective diurnal cycle statistics for each regime to MERRA-2 and ERA-Interim (ERA) reanalysis data sets. Composite diurnal cycle statistics are computed for daytime hours (06:00-21:00 local time) in the wet season (December-January-February). MERRA-2 matches observations more closely than ERA for domain averaged composite diurnal statistics-specifically precipitation. However, ERA reproduces mesoscale features of OLR and precipitation phase associated with topography and the propagation of the coastal squall line. Both reanalysis models are shown to underestimate extreme convection.

Itterly, Kyle F.↗
DOE OSTI2021

ClimateNet: an expert-labeled open dataset and deep learning architecture for enabling high-precision analyses of extreme weather

Abstract. Identifying, detecting, and localizing extreme weather events is a crucial first step in understanding how they may vary under different climate change scenarios. Pattern recognition tasks such as classification, object detection, and segmentation (i.e., pixel-level classification) have remained challenging problems in the weather and climate sciences. While there exist many empirical heuristics for detecting extreme events, the disparities between the output of these different methods even for a single event are large and often difficult to reconcile. Given the success of deep learning (DL) in tackling similar problems in computer vision, we advocate a DL-based approach. DL, however, works best in the context of supervised learning – when labeled datasets are readily available. Reliable labeled training data for extreme weather and climate events is scarce. We create “ClimateNet” – an open, community-sourced human-expert-labeled curated dataset that captures tropical cyclones (TCs) and atmospheric rivers (ARs) in high-resolution climate model output from a simulation of a recent historical period. We use the curated ClimateNet dataset to train a state-of-the-art DL model for pixel-level identification – i.e., segmentation – of TCs and ARs. We then apply the trained DL model to historical and climate change scenarios simulated by the Community Atmospheric Model (CAM5.1) and show that the DL model accurately segments the data into TCs, ARs, or “the background” at a pixel level. Further, we show how the segmentation results can be used to conduct spatially and temporally precise analytics by quantifying distributions of extreme precipitation conditioned on event types (TC or AR) at regional scales. The key contribution of this work is that it paves the way for DL-based automated, high-fidelity, and highly precise analytics of climate data using a curated expert-labeled dataset – ClimateNet. ClimateNet and the DL-based segmentation method provide several unique capabilities: (i) they can be used to calculate a variety of TC and AR statistics at a fine-grained level; (ii) they can be applied to different climate scenarios and different datasets without tuning as they do not rely on threshold conditions; and (iii) the proposed DL method is suitable for rapidly analyzing large amounts of climate model output. While our study has been conducted for two important extreme weather patterns (TCs and ARs) in simulation datasets, we believe that this methodology can be applied to a much broader class of patterns and applied to observational and reanalysis data products via transfer learning.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1997

Line Emission from an Accretion Disk Around a Rotating Black Hole: Toward a Measurement of Frame Dragging

Line emission from an accretion disk and a corotating hot spot about a rotating black hole are considered for possible signatures of the frame-dragging effect. We explicitly compare integrated line profiles from a geometrically thin disk about a Schwarzschild and an extreme Kerr black hole, and show that the line profile differences are small if the inner radius of the disk is near or above the Schwarzschild stable-orbit limit of radius 6GM/sq c. However, if the inner disk radius extends below this limit, as is Possible in the extreme Kerr spacetime, then differences can become significant, especially if the disk emissivity is stronger near the inner regions. We demonstrate that the first three moments of a line profile define a three-dimensional space in which the presence of material at small radii becomes quantitatively evident in broad classes of disk models. In the context of the simple, thin disk paradigm, this moment-mapping scheme suggests formally that the iron line detected by the Advanced Satellite,for Cosmology and Astrophysics mission from MCG --6-30-15 (Tanaka et al.) is approximately 3 times more likely to originate from a disk about a rotating black hole than from a Schwarzschild system. A statistically significant detection of black hole rotation in this way may be achieved after only modest improvements in the quality of data. We also consider light curves and frequency shifts in line emission as a function of time for corotating hot spots in extreme Kerr and Schwarzschild geometries. The frequency-shift profile is a valuable measure of orbital parameters and might possibly be used to detect frame dragging even at radii approaching 6GM/sq c if the inclination angle of the orbital plane is large. The light curve from a hot spot shows differences as well, although these too are pronounced only at large inclination angles.

Bromley, Benjamin C.↗