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More Data Needed for Failure Rate Estimation, Validation, and Uncertainty Reduction

Current Environmental Control and Life Support System (ECLSS) development and test activities are not generating data fast enough to provide statistically-supportable precise Orbital Replacement Unit (ORU) failure rate estimates for future missions. Accurate and precise failure rate estimates are critical for missions beyond Low Earth Orbit (LEO) because current risk mitigation approaches – namely regular resupply and rapid abort capabilities – will not be available. Safe operations will depend on mission planners’ ability to accurately forecast spares demand and efficiently provide the necessary resources. However, even after more than a decade of operations on board the International Space Station (ISS), a significant amount of uncertainty remains in failure rate estimates. Uncertain or inaccurate failure rates result in increased risk and spares mass for future missions. A Bayesian failure rate estimation approach, such as the one currently implemented by the ISS Program, can help reduce uncertainty by incorporating engineering judgement into failure rate estimates. However, experience on the ISS and with other complex systems shows that these prior failure rate estimates are often inaccurate. In addition, prior failure rate estimates are typically point values; some level of uncertainty must be added to convert these into probability distributions for Bayesian updating, and there are several potential methods for doing so. Due to the low rate of data collection, these subjective (and often inaccurate) prior estimates currently have a strong influence on the end result. This paper examines the challenges associated with failure rate estimation, validation, and uncertainty reduction in the context of ECLSS development for beyond-LEO missions. A variety of techniques for generating and updating Bayesian priors are discussed and evaluated using both real-world and simulated data. Potential solutions for improving failure rate estimation, including testing additional units, are analyzed and discussed, and a set of recommendations are provided for next-generation system development activities.

Supportability↗

NASA NTRS1994

Correlation of finite element free vibration predictions using random vibration test data

Finite element analysis is regularly used during the engineering cycle of mechanical systems to predict the response to static, thermal, and dynamic loads. The finite element model (FEM) used to represent the system is often correlated with physical test results to determine the validity of analytical results provided. Results from dynamic testing provide one means for performing this correlation. One of the most common methods of measuring accuracy is by classical modal testing, whereby vibratory mode shapes are compared to mode shapes provided by finite element analysis. The degree of correlation between the test and analytical mode shapes can be shown mathematically using the cross orthogonality check. A great deal of time and effort can be exhausted in generating the set of test acquired mode shapes needed for the cross orthogonality check. In most situations response data from vibration tests are digitally processed to generate the mode shapes from a combination of modal parameters, forcing functions, and recorded response data. An alternate method is proposed in which the same correlation of analytical and test acquired mode shapes can be achieved without conducting the modal survey. Instead a procedure is detailed in which a minimum of test information, specifically the acceleration response data from a random vibration test, is used to generate a set of equivalent local accelerations to be applied to the reduced analytical model at discrete points corresponding to the test measurement locations. The static solution of the analytical model then produces a set of deformations that once normalized can be used to represent the test acquired mode shapes in the cross orthogonality relation. The method proposed has been shown to provide accurate results for both a simple analytical model as well as a complex space flight structure.

Chambers, Jeffrey A.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Life Sciences Data Archives (LSDA) in the Post-Shuttle Era

Now, more than ever before, NASA is realizing the value and importance of their intellectual assets. Principles of knowledge management-the systematic use and reuse of information, experience, and expertise to achieve a specific goal-are being applied throughout the agency. LSDA is also applying these solutions, which rely on a combination of content and collaboration technologies, to enable research teams to create, capture, share, and harness knowledge to do the things they do well, even better. In the early days of spaceflight, space life sciences data were collected and stored in numerous databases, formats, media-types and geographical locations. These data were largely unknown/unavailable to the research community. The Biomedical Informatics and Health Care Systems Branch of the Space Life Sciences Directorate at JSC and the Data Archive Project at ARC, with funding from the Human Research Program through the Exploration Medical Capability Element, are fulfilling these requirements through the systematic population of the Life Sciences Data Archive. This project constitutes a formal system for the acquisition, archival and distribution of data for HRP-related experiments and investigations. The general goal of the archive is to acquire, preserve, and distribute these data and be responsive to inquiries for the science communities. Information about experiments and data, as well as non-attributable human data and data from other species' are available on our public Web site http://lsda.jsc.nasa.gov. The Web site also includes a repository for biospecimens, and a utilization process. NASA has undertaken an initiative to develop a Shuttle Data Archive repository. The Shuttle program is nearing its end in 2010 and it is critical that the medical and research data related to the Shuttle program be captured, retained, and usable for research, lessons learned, and future mission planning. Communities of practice are groups of people who share a concern or a passion for something they do, and learn how to do it better as they interact regularly. LSDA works with the HRP community of practice to ensure that we are preserving the relevant research and data they need in the LSDA repository. An evidence-based approach to risk management is required in space life sciences. Evidence changes over time. LSDA has a pilot project with Collexis, a new type of Web-based search engine. Collexis differentiates itself from full-text search engines by making use of thesauri for information retrieval. The high-quality search is based on semantics that have been defined in a life sciences ontology. Additionally, Collexis' matching technology is unique, allowing discovery of partially matching dicuments. Users do not have to construct a complicated (Boolean) search query, but can simply enter a free text search without the risk of getting "no results". Collexis may address these issues by virtue of its retrieval and discovery capabilities across multiple repositories.

Fitts, Mary A.↗