Development of HelioPortal to Enable Reliable Forecasts of Solar Activity Through Data Assimilation and Machine Learning Approaches
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SMD↗
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Results for “solar data”
Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
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Modeling EUV Intensity at the Top of the Transition Region Using SPICE Data on Board Solar Orbiter
The Spectral Imaging of Coronal Environment (SPICE; SPICE Consortium et al. 2020) provides an extraordinary opportunity to study the chromosphere and transition region using EUV wavelengths, e.g., Ne VIII 770 Å, CIII 977 Å, OVI 1032 Å, and Lyman-𝛽 025 Å. We present results modeling Ne VIII 770 Å intensity using images from SPICE and the COronal DEnsity and Temperature (CODET) model. This model is based on relationships between the magnetic field, density, and temperature. It uses a flux transport model, the Potential Field Extrapolation model (PFSS), an emission model based on Chianti atomic database 10.0.2, and an optimization algorithm. In addition, we assume that the emission from the top of the transition region (Ne VIII 770 Å) can be described using the magnetic field in the coronal base at 1.014𝑅⨀ (from PFSS). We found the mean full disc electron density in the transition region obtained from the CODET model for Ne VIII 770 Å (𝑙𝑜𝑔10𝑇[𝐾] = 5.8) corresponds to ∼ 𝑙𝑜𝑔10𝑁 𝑐𝑚−3 >9, and temperature value is 𝑙𝑜𝑔10𝑇[𝐾]~6. This value agrees with the Ne VIII 770 Å temperature formation 𝑙𝑜𝑔10𝑇[𝐾]~5.8. The density above sunspots (𝐵 > 50 𝐺) corresponds to 𝑙𝑜𝑔10𝑁 𝑐𝑚−3 > 9, while in quiet Sun regions (𝐵 < 50 𝐺) the mean density is 𝑙𝑜𝑔10𝑁[𝑐𝑚−3 ] = 8 .
Jenny M Rodriguez Gomez↗
Creation of the GSFCSSI2 Composite Solar Spectral Irradiance Data Set
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Matthew T. DeLand↗
Mir Cooperative Solar Array Flight Performance Data and Computational Analysis
The Mir Cooperative Solar Array (MCSA) was developed jointly by the United States (US) and Russia to provide approximately 6 kW of photovoltaic power to the Russian space station Mir. The MCSA was launched to Mir in November 1995 and installed on the Kvant-1 module in May 1996. Since the MCSA photovoltaic panel modules (PPMs) are nearly identical to those of the International Space Station (ISS) photovoltaic arrays, MCSA operation offered an opportunity to gather multi-year performance data on this technology prior to its implementation on ISS. Two specially designed test sequences were executed in June and December 1996 to measure MCSA performance. Each test period encompassed 3 orbital revolutions whereby the current produced by the MCSA channels was measured. The temperature of MCSA PPMs was also measured. To better interpret the MCSA flight data, a dedicated FORTRAN computer code was developed to predict the detailed thermal-electrical performance of the MCSA. Flight data compared very favorably with computational performance predictions. This indicated that the MCSA electrical performance was fully meeting pre-flight expectations. There were no measurable indications of unexpected or precipitous MCSA performance degradation due to contamination or other causes after 7 months of operation on orbit. Power delivered to the Mir bus was lower than desired as a consequence of the retrofitted power distribution cabling. The strong correlation of experimental and computational results further bolsters the confidence level of performance codes used in critical ISS electric power forecasting. In this paper, MCSA flight performance tests are described as well as the computational modeling behind the performance predictions.
Kerslake, Thomas W.↗
The quiet solar wind
Data from nine spacecraft are combined to study the properties of solar wind protons and the interplanetary magnetic field under unusual conditions that proton speed, density, and temperature variations are small over periods comparable to the solar wind expansion time. From the 14 quiet intervals studied it is determined that (1) the square root of T versus velocity relation is less steep than was calculated from long-term-averaged or 3-hour quiet data; (2) the density varies approximately as the inverse square of the velocity; however, the data scatter is large, and an alternative interpretation is that mass flux is constant for velocities over about 400 km/s, in agreement with earlier studies; (3) the magnitude of the interplanetary magnetic field is independent of solar wind speed and density; and (4) the average field direction varies with the solar wind speed as predicted by Parker's spiral model. The intercalibration of solar wind measurements by different spacecraft is discussed in an appendix.
Neugebauer, M.↗
Solar flare particle fluences during solar cycles 19, 20 and 21
Satellite data for solar flare particle events during solar cycle 21 (up to July 1982) have been analyzed to obtain event-integrated fluxes of energetic protons and alpha particles. Thirty nine events with proton fluences (E greater than 10 MeV) greater than 10-million/sq cm occurred during 1976-1982. The average flux of protons with kinetic energy greater than 10 MeV is 65 per sq cm/s for this period. The event averaged alpha to proton ratio, in the energy interval 1-22 MeV/n, varies between 0.006 to 0.04, with an average value of about 0.02 for the whole cycle. The flux of protons (with energies greater than 10 MeV) averaged over cycle 21 is lower than those for solar-cycle 20 per sq cm/s based on satellite data, and for solar-cycle 19 378 per sq cm/s based on lunar sample data. There is no definitive correlation between solar-cycle averaged proton fluxes and sunspot numbers.
Mcguire, R. E.↗
Search for solar neutrons using NM-64 equipment
Two years (1980 to 1982) neutron monitor data from the Chacaltaya (geographic coordinates: N16.32 deg W68. 15 deg; cutoff rigidity: 13.1 GV; altitude: 5,300 m a.s.l.) station has been scanned; the sampling time of the 12NM-64 neutron monitor is 5 min. The nucleonic component increases have been correlated with 66 hard X-, gamma rays satellite data from solar origin, as reported by several groups. Typical neutron monitor time profiles of the events are presented. Chree-analysis was performed discriminating the events according to its solar coordinates. Ground data from solar limb locii are more enhanced at the time of the onset than other geometrically visible flares. Chree histograms of neutron monitor output profiles are also presented from geometrically invisible events from the Chacaltaya station.
Martinic, N. J.↗
Apparent relationship between solar sector boundaries and 300-millibar vorticity: Possible explanation in terms of upward propagation of planetary-scale waves
The correlations between the solar sectors and large-scale atmospheric vorticity in the lower atmosphere reported earlier are of interest since the solar-sector data appear to be independent of any terrestrial influences. It is shown that even these solar data may be affected by geomagnetic properties; a method for removing such influences is suggested.
Deland, R. J.↗
Deciphering Degradation: Machine Learning on Real-World Performance Data
The solar investment community is in need of up-to-date and data-derived system degradation rates to use in financial models that calculate the risk and expectation of energy revenue. To date, financial models choose degradation rates from past studies that are limited and may not be representative of solar projects in development today. As the solar industry expands in all sectors (residential, commercial, and utility), there is a growing amount of energy generation data available to analyze. With the help of the open source degradation analysis code (RdTools) it is now possible to derive degradation on an ongoing basis and continuously provide up-to-date durability statistics to the investment community. Ongoing and accurate statistics of fielded photovoltaic systems allows financial stakeholders to constrain energy revenue projections, lower financial risk, and increase the bankability of solar. This presentation will provide a mid-term progress update on a 2 year SETO-funded degradation project that involves applying RdTools analysis on kWh Analytics’ industry database. With results from the RdTools analysis in hand, machine learning methods are employed to quantify how much variance of system performance degradation can be explained by predictor variables such as environmental factors, equipment bill of materials characteristics, and system design information. The goal of this presentation is to promote the usage of RdTools on an ongoing to data owners and to solicit feedback from researchers and stakeholders on how to maximize impact of the SETO-funded kWh Analytics degradation project.
14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
Patience is a virtue: A data-driven analysis of rooftop solar PV permitting timelines in the United States
© 2020 The Authors Local permitting can ensure the safe installation and operation of rooftop solar photovoltaic (PV) systems. At the same time, burdensome local permitting processes and local variation in requirements may pose challenges to PV deployment. In this article, we explore new data on the durations between key steps in the PV permitting process in the United States. The data suggest that a typical customer can expect to wait around 25–100 days from permit application until an installed system passes inspection. Permit durations vary significantly across jurisdictions, due in part to differences in local permitting policies. However, permit durations vary as significantly within jurisdictions as across them, in part due to significant variation across installers, suggesting that installer strategies and practices play an important role in permitting timelines. Permit durations have declined over time, reflecting progress from permit streamlining policies and jurisdiction learning-by-doing, though durations have stabilized in recent years. The data suggest that typical PV customers still face long and uncertain permitting timelines in the United States.
O'Shaughnessy, E↗
Quantifying the Solar Energy Resource for Puerto Rico
After Hurricane Maria, multiple U.S. Department of Energy laboratories studied the state of the electric grid in Puerto Rico and analyzed grid resilience and grid integration of renewable energy. As part of the work done at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, researchers created new solar resource data, conducted a technical potential and supply curve analysis, and studied the interannual variability of the solar resource. A new methodology was developed to downscale solar resource data from the National Solar Radiation Data Base (NSRDB) from a 4-km x 4-km spatial and 30-minute temporal resolution to a 2 km x 2 km and 5-minute resolution. This methodology primarily used simple physical principles to develop high-resolution cloud properties which were then used to compute solar radiation. The high-resolution datasets were validated against ground measurements and the error metrics were found to be similar to the original lower resolution dataset. Using 20 years of downscaled data from the NSRDB multi-year capacity factors for photovoltaics (PV) were developed for both single-axis tracking and fixed latitude-tilt configurations. Use of the multi-year data provides the ability to understand variability in capacity factors due to variability in weather over a long period of time. For Puerto Rico the coastal regions were found to have significant higher capacity factors than inland. Using land-use and terrain information a technical potential analysis was conducted for Puerto Rico. This analysis restricted single PV plant development to a maximum of 100 MW nameplate capacity. The nameplate capacity for each municipality were then determined. Based on our assumptions, 56 of the 78 total municipalities of Puerto Rico contain some level of solar capacity. Most of the interior municipalities did not have any capacity because of the geographic exclusions used in this study. The lowest capacity for a PV plant observed in a municipality was 10 MW. The maximum capacity within a county was 2,000 MW. Further a supply curve analysis was conducted by taking the results of the technical potential and quantifying system and transmission costs. The levelized cost of energy (LCOE) was calculated for each theoretical PV plant site, and the levelized cost of transmission was added to the LCOE to produce a total cost estimate for each site. The results of the supply curve analysis allow for a relative comparison of the cost for integrating new PV capacity into the grid. This analysis indicates that cheaper total LCOE sites tend to be larger in capacity. The total capacity in this study was found to be far beyond the maximum peak load for the island. However, this study does not consider the economic and market potential for development. The cumulative capacity presented in this study assumes that the best locations are developed first and ignores the complex decision paths for new power plant development. Therefore, this analysis can only be treated as illustrative. Finally this study investigates the impact of inter-annual variability of resource using a variety of metrices including probability of exceedance and variation in capacity factor and LCOE. This study demonstrates that the capacity factor or LCOE could vary by over 10% year to year. This clearly indicates the risks involved in using any particular year of data and clearly points to the use of multi-year data to reduce some of the risks related to variability in weather.
14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
The relation between solar cell flight performance data and materials and manufacturing data Quarterly report
Computer search to gather information on solar cell flight performance in relation to materials and manufacturing data
Pollack, S. R.↗
Wind and IMP 8 Solar Wind, Magnetosheath and Shock Data
The purpose of this project was to provide the community access to magnetosheath data near Earth. We provided 27 years of IMP 8 magnetosheath proton velocities, densities, and temperatures with our best (usually 1-min.) time resolution. IMP 8 crosses the magnetosheath twice each 125 day orbit, and we provided magnetosheath data for the roughly 27 years of data for which magnetometer data are also available (which are needed to reliably pick boundaries). We provided this 27 years of IMP 8 magnetosheath data to the NSSDC; this data is now integrated with the IMP 8 solar wind data with flags indicating whether each data point is in the solar wind, magnetosheath, or at the boundary between the two regions. The plasma speed, density, and temperature are provided for each magnetosheath point. These data are also available on the MIT web site ftp://space .mit.edu/pub/plasma/imp/www/imp.html. We provide ASCII time-ordered rows of data giving the observation time, the spacecraft position in GSE, the velocity is GSE, the density and temperature for protons. We also have analyzed and archived on our web site the Wind magnetosheath plasma parameters. These consist of ascii files of the proton and alpha densities, speeds, and thermal speeds. These data are available at ftp://space.mit.edu/pub/plasma/wind/sheath These are the two products promised in the work statement and they have been completed in full.
Source record↗
Simultaneous acceleration of electrons and ions in solar flares
Data from the observations of two gamma ray and electron bremsstrahlung X-ray emitting solar flares, on June 7 and 21, 1980, were used to examine the relative starting times of the energetic ion and electron interactions. The data were gathered by the SMM, which was viewing the 2.223 MeV line from H-1(n, gamma)H-2, the 0.511 MeV line from electron-positron annihilation, the prompt nuclear lines at 4.44 and 6.13 MeV from excited C-12 and excited O-16, and the energetic solar neutrons at 1 AMU. Excess gamma ray and X-ray emissions were detected at relatively the same times during both flares in all energy bands, and were attributed to ion-induced emissions. The timing of the peaks of electron and ion activity indicate that both electrons and ions are accelerated to their peak activity in under 5 sec.
Forrest, D. J.↗
Joint Resource Modeling and Assessment for Hybrid Distributed Solar and Wind Systems
The inherent variability and uncertainty in distributed energy resources can presents myriad challenges to the planning and operations of power systems. These risks are poised to become larger as the penetration of renewable energy sources rises in the power generation mix. Hybrid solar-wind energy systems are able to mitigate some of these risks by their complementary resource availability. Surface solar and wind fields are coupled and correlated in both space and time. Appropriately estimating the hybrid solar wind energy system requires simulating the spatio-temporal structure of these fields that can be produced for each time horizon. We introduce a novel joint spatio-temporal stochastic differential equation (SPDE) approach that captures the spatio-temporal dynamics of solar and wind fields and their joint dependency over a domain for each time step. In the case study on Colorado, we consider nonstationary three-level hierarchical spatio temporal models for both hourly solar irradiance data and wind speed data in Colorado. Dependence between the solar irradiance data and wind speed data is captured by a shared spatio-temporal random effect. Our approach performs well in terms of the prediction score criterion.
joint modeling↗
Evaluation of Time-Series Gap-Filling Methods for Solar Irradiance Applications
A complete solar resource data set is essential for any stage of a solar energy project - from feasibility studies to daily operations. But measured or modeled solar resource data are prone to data gaps and data quality issues. To mitigate these issues, a data imputation process should be implemented to obtain a complete and reliable temporal and spatial data series. This study focused on imputing temporal scales by applying random and artificial data gaps and then implementing eight imputation methods, including the Kalman filtering and smoothing and stine interpolations. These methods were implemented on 1-minute to half hourly irradiance data for 1 year using a few locations from the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) and ground measurement data set. The results demonstrated that some of the simpler methods, such as the stine and linear interpolation methods, were the relatively best models based on the statistical metrics for imputing NSRDB and ground measurement data, respectively.
14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
SOHO EIT Carrington maps from synoptic full-disk data
The solar synoptic maps, obtained from observations carried out since May 1996 by the extreme-ultraviolet imaging telescope (EIT) onboard the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO), are presented. The maps were constructed for each Carrington rotation with the calibrated data. The off-limb maps at 1.05 and 1.10 solar radii were generated for three coronal lines using the standard applied to coronagraph synoptic maps. The maps reveal several aspects of the solar structure over the entire rotation and are used in the whole sun month modeling campaign. @txt extreme-ultraviolet imaging telescope
Thompson, B. J.↗
Solar neutrinos, solar flares, solar activity cycle and the proton decay
It is shown that there may be a correlation between the galactic cosmic rays and the solar neutrino data, but it appears that the neutrino flux which may be generated during the large solar cosmic ray events cannot in any way effect the solar neutrino data in Davis experiment. Only initial stage of mixing between the solar core and solar outer layers after the sunspot maximum in the solar activity cycle can explain the higher (run number 27 and 71) of solar neutrino data in Davis experiment. But solar flare induced atmospheric neutrino flux may have effect in the nucleon decay detector on the underground. The neutrino flux from solar cosmic rays may be a useful guide to understand the background of nucleon decay, magnetic monopole search, and the detection of neutrino flux in sea water experiment.
Raychaudhuri, P.↗