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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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DOE OSTI2024

A Corrected Score Function Framework for Modelling Circadian Gene Expression

Many biological processes display oscillatory behaviour based on an approximately 24 h internal timing system specific to each individual. One process of particular interest is gene expression, for which several circadian transcriptomic studies have identified associations between gene expression during a 24 h period and an individual's health. A challenge with analysing data from these studies is that each individual's internal timing system is offset relative to the 24 h day-night cycle, where day–night cycle time is recorded for each collected sample. Laboratory procedures can accurately determine each individual's offset and determine the internal time of sample collection. However, these laboratory procedures are labour-intensive and expensive. Here, in this paper, we propose a corrected score function framework to obtain a regression model of gene expression given internal time when the offset of each individual is too burdensome to determine. A feature of this framework is that it does not require the probability distribution generating offsets to be symmetric with a mean of zero. Simulation studies validate the use of this corrected score function framework for cosinor regression, which is prevalent in circadian transcriptomic studies. Illustrations with data from three circadian transcriptomic studies further demonstrate that the proposed framework consistently mitigates bias relative to using a score function that does not account for this offset.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Residential Battery Modeling for Control-Oriented Techno-Economic Studies: Preprint

Electrochemical batteries, which serve as electric energy storage devices, are becoming increasingly popular among residential buildings that incorporate solar photovoltaic (PV) systems to help meet their energy needs. Battery economics are affected by performance degradation over time, and managing this degradation can help extend the battery's lifespan. The tradeoff between operational costs/benefits and managing battery degradation is of significant research interest. One of the key factors for assessing battery degradation is the dispatch strategy used to control the charging and discharging of the battery. Conventional dispatch strategies typically use simple rule-based methods, and these overly aggressive charging/discharging cycles can significantly reduce a battery’s life span. Our research seeks to develop optimized dispatch strategies for grid-connected PV homes with a goal of extending battery life while simultaneously taking into consideration utility costs and occupant comfort. To achieve this goal, we adapted lithium-ion battery life- and cyclic-degradation models for use in high-fidelity building simulations, so whole-building and grid-interactive controllers can dispatch the batteries along with other flexible loads. With the help of a co-simulation platform, we performed a simulation study to compute the optimized dispatch strategies for relevant operating conditions brought about by changing geographical locations, weather conditions, and utility pricing. Comparing the optimized strategies with the conventional strategies resulted in a >50% decrease in capacity degradation and >10% average reduction in operational costs during the months of January and July in Fort Collins, Colorado; Phoenix, Arizona; and Portland, Oregon.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗
DOE OSTI2023

Effects of unburnt reaction progress on stretch flame dynamics under elevated temperatures

Flames in practical combustors and engines are inevitably subject to the effects of upstream chemical reaction progress and stretch, induced by elevated thermodynamic conditions and flow non-uniformities, respectively. Recent shock tube experiments and simulation studies on flame propagation have shown that flame speed under engine-relevant conditions can be enhanced with non-negligible upstream chemical reaction progress, especially when low-temperature heat release is involved in the unburnt mixture. On the other hand, depending on the mixture equivalence ratio and diluents, nonequidiffusion (including the non-unity Lewis number effect and the preferential diffusion effect) can couple with the flame stretch to fundamentally affect the flame propagation, which can manifest as either facilitation or suppression. Depending on the transport property of a reacting mixture, there hence can be either inhibition or promotion from unburnt reaction progress and stretch effects on flame propagation. In the current work, through one-dimensional numerical simulations of transient planar and spherical flames of n-heptane/air under elevated thermodynamic conditions, the combined effects of upstream chemical reaction progress and stretch on flame propagation are investigated. Results show that for both lean and rich n-heptane/air mixtures, flame speed can be substantially promoted with reaction progress, while the rich mixtures can exhibit opposite stretch dependence after first-stage ignition. Different definitions of effective Lewis number are adopted to explain the change in Markstein length for spherical flame in lean and rich mixtures reformed by the low temperature chemistry. Further, this work fills an important gap in laminar premixed flame research relevant to practical combustion systems and can provide useful insight into local turbulent flame behaviors and phi-sensitivity in engine combustion.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Investigation of powertrain system decarbonization using electrically assisted turbocharging and hybridization in off-road vehicles

In recent years, the causes, effects, and existential threat of a global anthropogenic climate shift have drawn significant attention and stimulated mitigation efforts from all genres of scientific, political, and industrial bodies. The greenhouse effect and the detrimental environmental impact of excess greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, like carbon dioxide, is well studied and targeted as the primary culprit for aversive action. However, some fields exist where reducing GHG emissions is met by considerable challenges. One such field is the production and operations of off-road vehicles. Applications of these vehicles are highly diverse and are often characterized by rugged, especially transient, and power intensive duty cycles that make one-fits-all vehicle configuration solutions impractical. This research surveys existing literature to identify the modern technologies packages and challenges that face development and configuration of powertrain systems which currently navigate the regulated emissions and unique duty cycle requirements of this market space. A novel powertrain concept is proposed and evaluated with respect to the pinnacle objectives of load performance improvement, criteria pollutant reduction, and reducing the life cycle GHG intensity of its operation. A sure-fire path to vehicular GHG reduction is through improving the fuel efficiency of internal combustion engines (ICEs), an entrenched component of the off-road vehicle sector. Unfortunately, this is more easily said than done. An approach that has proven successful in this endeavor is engine downsizing and turbocharging, where a larger engine is replaced with a smaller one with added air system boosting via turbocharger to reduce frictional and pumping losses while also enabling access to additional fuel energy. However, practical realization of these potential benefits is often impeded by the transient response capability of the smaller engine across the operating space. For this reason, downsized ICE powertrains have turned to electrified forced induction systems (EFISs) for a decoupling of exhaust energy and engine speed from boost capability. Platformed on 48V hybrid technology, these systems introduce the need for more sophisticated controls around the engine gas-exchange process for the management of boost performance and exhaust gas emissions. On this account, simulation studies utilizing a GT-POWER model of a turbocharged 4.5 L engine outfit with an EFIS using an electrically driven compressor (eBooster®) are conducted to provide insight into the performance of this air handling architecture on an off-road engine. The results show that improvement in transient torque response time in sync with reduction in engine-out soot and NOx emissions are possible with an engine recalibration that leverages the transient air-fuel ratio authority of the eBooster®. Benefits are further demonstrated when duty cycle simulations of the 48V mild-hybrid engine concept are exercised, showing an acute decrease in cumulative fuel usage and soot production. Powertrain hybridization is another technological pathway achieving pronounced GHG reduction successes in modern on-road vehicle applications through integration of Li-ion battery technology. In the off-road vehicle segment, a review of available literature concludes that hybridized architectures are present but generally lack the depth of technologies that have both high specific energy and power capabilities, and thus are limited in their inclusion of Li-ion batteries for ICE assistance and enhanced energy storage capability. Therefore, building on the mild-hybrid engine results, the downsized and eBoosted engine concept was integrated into a larger high-voltage battery-hybrid series-electric powertrain system. Hybrid powertrain parameter sensitivity studies were carried out in a numerical charge-sustaining framework, providing novel insights into power flows between the battery and the engine and how their respective capabilities and operation contribute to GHG and criteria pollutant emissions of diverse duty cycles. Application of supervisory power management introduced robustness into the power sourcing and battery SOC control process and showed that optimum specification of battery properties can yield synergies between GHG emissions and battery energy capacity. Furthermore, examination of recent literature on Li-ion batteries has shown that pack manufacturing is a highly energy intensive process, thereby producing considerable quantities of GHGs that scale with energy storage capacity. Also scaling with a battery’s energy storage capacity is its investment cost. In consideration of these factors, an inclusive technoeconomic and GHG life cycle analysis is conducted. This analysis systematically compares the carbon footprint and total cost of ownership associated with the proposed hybrid powertrain concept to reference and alternative powertrain configurations, facilitating a thorough evaluation of the decarbonization effectiveness and economic viability.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2023

High-dimensional multivariate autoregressive model estimation of human electrophysiological data using fMRI priors

Multivariate autoregressive (MVAR) model estimation enables assessment of causal interactions in brain networks. However, accurately estimating MVAR models for high-dimensional electrophysiological recordings is challenging due to the extensive data requirements. Hence, the applicability of MVAR models for study of brain behavior over hundreds of recording sites has been very limited. Prior work has focused on different strategies for selecting a subset of important MVAR coefficients in the model to reduce the data requirements of conventional least-squares estimation algorithms. Here we propose incorporating prior information, such as resting state functional connectivity derived from functional magnetic resonance imaging, into MVAR model estimation using a weighted group least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regularization strategy. The proposed approach is shown to reduce data requirements by a factor of two relative to the recently proposed group LASSO method of Endemann et al (Neuroimage 254:119057, 2022) while resulting in models that are both more parsimonious and more accurate. The effectiveness of the method is demonstrated using simulation studies of physiologically realistic MVAR models derived from intracranial electroencephalography (iEEG) data. The robustness of the approach to deviations between the conditions under which the prior information and iEEG data is obtained is illustrated using models from data collected in different sleep stages. This approach allows accurate effective connectivity analyses over short time scales, facilitating investigations of causal interactions in the brain underlying perception and cognition during rapid transitions in behavioral state.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Colloidal Clusters and Networks Formed by Oppositely Charged Nanoparticles with Varying Stiffnesses

Colloidal clusters and gels are ubiquitous in science and technology. Particle softness has a strong effect on interparticle interactions; however, our understanding of the role of this factor in the formation of colloidal clusters and gels is only beginning to evolve. Here, we report the results of experimental and simulation studies of the impact of particle softness on the assembly of clusters and networks from mixtures of oppositely charged polymer nanoparticles (NPs). Experiments were performed below or above the polymer glass transition temperature, at which the interaction potential and adhesive forces between the NPs were significantly varied. Hard NPs assembled in fractal clusters that subsequently organized in a kinetically arrested colloidal gel, while soft NPs formed dense precipitating aggregates, due to the NP deformation and the decreased interparticle distance. Importantly, interactions of hard and soft NPs led to the formation of discrete precipitating NP aggregates at a relatively low volume fraction of soft NPs. A phenomenological model was developed for interactions of oppositely charged NPs with varying softnesses. Furthermore, the experimental results were in agreement with molecular dynamics simulations based on the model. This work provides insight on interparticle interactions before, during, and after the formation of hard–hard, hard–soft, and soft–soft contacts and has impact for numerous applications of reversible colloidal gels, including their use as inks for additive manufacturing.

77 NANOSCIENCE AND NANOTECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Experiments and simulations of isochorically heated warm dense carbon foam at the Texas Petawatt Laser

An experimental and simulation study of warm dense carbon foams at ambient density (n e ~10 21 cm –3 ) is presented. This study of isochorically heated foams is motivated by their potential application in carbon-atmosphere white-dwarf envelopes, where there are modeling uncertainties due to the equation of state. The foams are heated on an approximately picosecond time scale with a laser-accelerated proton beam. The cooling and expansion of the heated foams can be modeled with appropriately initialized radiation-hydrodynamics codes; xRAGE code is used in this work. The primary experimental diagnostic is the streaked optical pyrometer, which images a narrow band of radiation from the rear surface of the heated material. Presented are xRAGE modeling results for both solid aluminum targets and carbonized resorcinol-formaldehyde foam targets, showing that the foam appears to cool slowly on the pyrometer because of partial transparency. So that simulations of cooling foam are processed properly, it is necessary to account for finite optical depth in the photosphere calculation, and the methods for performing that calculation are presented in depth.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Multivariable degradation modeling and life prediction using multivariate fractional Brownian motion

In system prognostics and health management, multivariable degradation models have been widely developed to predict the life of complex systems using degradation data of multiple Performance Characteristics (PCs). Recent studies have detected a Long-Term Memory (LTM) effect among the degradation process of various PCs, implying a strong coupling phenomenon between the future degradation behavior and historical degradation trajectory. Although the LTM has been widely integrated into single-PC-based degradation modeling, it has not been considered in multi-PC-based scenarios. To capture LTM among multiple PCs, this article proposes a novel LTM-integrated Multivariate Degradation Model (MDM) for system life prediction based on multivariate fractional Brownian motion, which simultaneously incorporates the cross-correlation among different PCs. To estimate parameters of the LTM-integrated MDM, a maximum likelihood method is developed. Here, two likelihood-ratio hypothesis tests are developed to test the existence of the overall and individual LTM effect among multiple PCs. Both simulation studies and physical experiments on the performance degradation of solar energy conversion and storage devices are conducted to validate the proposed model. Results reveal that the proposed LTM-integrated MDM significantly outperforms existing MDMs in life prediction, while the lifetime uncertainty is heavily underestimated by those traditional approaches that neglect the LTM.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Field Laboratory for Emerging Stacked Unconventional Plays in Central Appalachia

The goal of the Field Laboratory for Emerging Stacked Unconventional Plays (ESUP) in Central Appalachia project was to investigate and characterize the resource potential for multi-play production of emerging unconventional reservoirs in Central Appalachia. Project activities included drilling, logging and coring of a vertical characterization well drilled to basement to approximately 15,000 feet in depth. The data from drilling and well logs as well recovered core samples were used by the research team to support characterization of the geology and potential pay zones within the Nora Gas Field of southwestern Virginia and the greater Central Appalachian Basin. This project was led by Dr. Nino Ripepi of the Virginia Center for Coal and Energy Research (VCCER) in close collaboration with EnerVest Operating LLC (EnerVest). VCCER is housed in the Department of Mining and Minerals Engineering at Virginia Tech and was created by an Act of the Virginia General Assembly on March 30, 1977, as an interdisciplinary study, research, information, and resource facility for the Commonwealth of Virginia. EnerVest is a top tier, low-cost oil and natural gas company with a long history of traditional operating relationships with institutional investors as well as public and private companies. This report summarizes two major research activities: 1) Log and Core Analysis and 2) Numerical Modeling. Core analysis comprises the characterization efforts of the ESUP Field Laboratory and includes a discussion of the well logs run in the deep characterization wells, an initial analysis of those, the number, size and location of cores recovered, core testing and analysis done to date as well as plans for future analysis. Numerical modeling is comprised of seven major modeling efforts, including (1) Multiphysics shale transport modeling work, (2) the developed in-house compositional simulator studies, (3) reservoir modeling studies using GEM software, (4) fracture modeling work using EFRAC3D software and (5) numerical modeling efforts with ABAQUS software, (6) Numerical modeling efforts using FLAC3D and PFC3D, and (7) Automatic Machine Learning (AutoML) Studies.

02 PETROLEUM↗
DOE OSTI2022

Assembly of polyelectrolyte star block copolymers at the oil–water interface

To understand and resolve adsorption, reconfiguration, and equilibrium conformations of charged star copolymers, we carried out an integrated experimental and coarse-grained molecular dynamics simulation study of the assembly process at the oil–water interface. This is important to guide development of novel surfactants or amphiphiles for chemical transformations and separations. The star block copolymer consisted of arms that are comprised of hydrophilic–hydrophobic block copolymers that are covalently tethered via the hydrophobic blocks to one point. The hydrophobic core represents polystyrene (PS) chains, while the hydrophilic corona represents quaternized poly(2-vinylpyridine) (P2VP) chains. The P2VP is modeled to become protonated when in contact with an acidic aqueous phase, thereby massively increasing the hydrophilicity of this block, and changing the nature of the star at the oil–water interface. This results in a configurational change whereby the chains comprising the hydrophilic corona are significantly stretched into the aqueous phase, while the hydrophobic core remains solubilized in the oil phase. In the simulations, we followed the kinetics of the anchoring and assembly of the star block copolymer at the interface, monitoring the lateral assembly, and the subsequent reconfiguration of the star via changes in the interfacial tension that varies as the degree-of-protonation increases. At low fractions of protonation, the arm cannot fully partition into the aqueous side of the interface and instead interacts with other arms in the oil phase forming a network near the interface. These insights were used to interpret the non-monotonic dependence of pH with the asymptotic interfacial tension from pendant drop tensiometry experiments and spectral signatures of aromatic stretches seen in vibrational sum frequency generation (SFG) spectroscopy. We describe the relationship of interfacial tension to the star assembly via the Frumkin isotherm, which phenomenologically describes anti-cooperativity in adsorbing stars to the interface due to crowding. Although our model explicitly considers long-range electrostatics, the contribution of electrostatics to interfacial tension is small and brought about by strong counterion condensation at the interface. Finally, these results provide key insights into resolving the adsorption, reconfiguration, and equilibrium conformations of charged star block copolymers as surfactants.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

The TPR domain of PgaA is a multifunctional scaffold that binds PNAG and modulates PgaB-dependent polymer processing

The synthesis of exopolysaccharides as biofilm matrix components by pathogens is a crucial factor for chronic infections and antibiotic resistance. Many periplasmic proteins involved in polymer processing and secretion in Gram-negative synthase dependent exopolysaccharide biosynthetic systems have been individually characterized. The operons responsible for the production of PNAG, alginate, cellulose and the Pel polysaccharide each contain a gene that encodes an outer membrane associated tetratricopeptide repeat (TPR) domain containing protein. While the TPR domain has been shown to bind other periplasmic proteins, the functional consequences of these interactions for the polymer remain poorly understood. Herein, we show that the C-terminal TPR region of PgaA interacts with the de-N-acetylase domain of PgaB, and increases its deacetylase activity. Additionally, we found that when the two proteins form a complex, the glycoside hydrolase activity of PgaB is also increased. To better understand structure-function relationships we determined the crystal structure of a stable TPR module, which has a conserved groove formed by three repeat motifs. Tryptophan quenching, mass spectrometry analysis and molecular dynamics simulation studies suggest that the crystallized TPR module can bind PNAG/dPNAG via its electronegative groove on the concave surface, and potentially guide the polymer through the periplasm towards the porin for export. Our results suggest a scaffolding role for the TPR domain that combines PNAG/dPNAG translocation with the modulation of its chemical structure by PgaB.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Data-driven Distributed Learning of Multi-agent Systems: A Koopman Operator Approach

Koopman operator theory provides a model-free technique for studying nonlinear dynamical systems purely from data. Since the Koopman operator is infinite-dimensional, researchers have developed several methods that provide a finite-dimensional approximation of the Koopman operator so that it can be applied for practical use cases. One common thing with most of the methods is that their solutions are obtained by solving a centralized minimization problem. In this work, we treat the dynamical system to be a multi-agent system and propose an algorithm to compute the finite-dimensional approximation of the Koopman operator in a distributed manner using the knowledge of the topology of the underlying multi-agent system. The proposed distributed approach is shown to be equivalent to the centralized learning problem and results in a sparse Koopman whose block structure mimics the Laplacian of the multi-agent system. Extensive simulation studies illustrate the proposed framework on the network of oscillators and the IEEE 68 bus system.

Nandanoori, Sai Pushpak↗
DOE OSTI2023

A Graphical Model for Fusing Diverse Microbiome Data

This paper develops a Bayesian graphical model for fusing disparate types of count data. The motivating application is the study of bacterial communities from diverse high-dimensional features, in this case, transcripts, collected from different treatments. In such datasets, there are no explicit correspondences between the communities and each corresponds to different factors, making data fusion challenging. We introduce a flexible multinomial-Gaussian generative model for jointly modeling such count data. This latent variable model jointly characterizes the observed data through a common multivariate Gaussian latent space that parameterizes the set of multinomial probabilities of the transcriptome counts. The covariance matrix of the latent variables induces a covariance matrix of co-dependencies between all the transcripts, effectively fusing multiple data sources. We present a computationally scalable variational Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm for inferring the latent variables and the parameters of the model. Here, the inferred latent variables provide a common dimensionality reduction for visualizing the data and the inferred parameters provide a predictive posterior distribution. In addition to simulation studies that demonstrate the variational EM procedure, we apply our model to a bacterial microbiome dataset.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Observations of phase changes in monoolein during high viscous injection

Serial crystallography of membrane proteins often employs high-viscosity injectors (HVIs) to deliver micrometre-sized crystals to the X-ray beam. Typically, the carrier medium is a lipidic cubic phase (LCP) media, which can also be used to nucleate and grow the crystals. However, despite the fact that the LCP is widely used with HVIs, the potential impact of the injection process on the LCP structure has not been reported and hence is not yet well understood. The self-assembled structure of the LCP can be affected by pressure, dehydration and temperature changes, all of which occur during continuous flow injection. These changes to the LCP structure may in turn impact the results of X-ray diffraction measurements from membrane protein crystals. To investigate the influence of HVIs on the structure of the LCP we conducted a study of the phase changes in monoolein/water and monoolein/buffer mixtures during continuous flow injection, at both atmospheric pressure and under vacuum. The reservoir pressure in the HVI was tracked to determine if there is any correlation with the phase behaviour of the LCP. The results indicated that, even though the reservoir pressure underwent (at times) significant variation, this did not appear to correlate with observed phase changes in the sample stream or correspond to shifts in the LCP lattice parameter. During vacuum injection, there was a three-way coexistence of the gyroid cubic phase, diamond cubic phase and lamellar phase. During injection at atmospheric pressure, the coexistence of a cubic phase and lamellar phase in the monoolein/water mixtures was also observed. The degree to which the lamellar phase is formed was found to be strongly dependent on the co-flowing gas conditions used to stabilize the LCP stream. A combination of laboratory-based optical polarization microscopy and simulation studies was used to investigate these observations.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Feature selection and causal analysis for microbiome studies in the presence of confounding using standardization

Abstract Background Microbiome studies have uncovered associations between microbes and human, animal, and plant health outcomes. This has led to an interest in developing microbial interventions for treatment of disease and optimization of crop yields which requires identification of microbiome features that impact the outcome in the population of interest. That task is challenging because of the high dimensionality of microbiome data and the confounding that results from the complex and dynamic interactions among host, environment, and microbiome. In the presence of such confounding, variable selection and estimation procedures may have unsatisfactory performance in identifying microbial features with an effect on the outcome. Results In this manuscript, we aim to estimate population-level effects of individual microbiome features while controlling for confounding by a categorical variable. Due to the high dimensionality and confounding-induced correlation between features, we propose feature screening, selection, and estimation conditional on each stratum of the confounder followed by a standardization approach to estimation of population-level effects of individual features. Comprehensive simulation studies demonstrate the advantages of our approach in recovering relevant features. Utilizing a potential-outcomes framework, we outline assumptions required to ascribe causal, rather than associational, interpretations to the identified microbiome effects. We conducted an agricultural study of the rhizosphere microbiome of sorghum in which nitrogen fertilizer application is a confounding variable. In this study, the proposed approach identified microbial taxa that are consistent with biological understanding of potential plant-microbe interactions. Conclusions Standardization enables more accurate identification of individual microbiome features with an effect on the outcome of interest compared to other variable selection and estimation procedures when there is confounding by a categorical variable.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Multimetallic Layered Composites (MMLCs) for Rapid, Economical Advanced Reactor Deployment (Final Report)

This project focused on the development of multi-metallic layered composites (MMLCs) for advanced fission reactor technologies. There are many instances where one alloy or material simply cannot meet all the demands thrown at it by a reactor system, or cannot allow it to perform as strongly as one would like. Instead of focusing all our effort on developing one perfect alloy, we seek to leverage the design principle of “separation of functionality,” used in many other arenas in design, to boost performance beyond single alloys alone. One illustrative example shows the power of this approach for molten salt-cooled reactors: A three meter tall, three meter diameter reactor vessel made of Incoloy 800 was quoted at $\$$500k in 2018. A Hastelloy N vessel was quoted at $\$$5M. An MMLC vessel, in which a layer of Hastelloy N would be weld-overlaid onto Incoloy 800, was quoted at $\$$700k, and it would achieve the same performance. The potential economic gains of leveraging this approach are therefore substantial. At a minimum, each MMLC would contain one core structural layer and one coolant-facing corrosion-resistant layer. Sometimes, MMLCs required buffer layers, as the structural and corrosion-resistant layers were metallurgically incompatible. In other words, they didn’t always play nice, thus separating layers compatible with both functioned as intermediaries to keep the composite together. However, in doing so we inevitably produce new interfaces, where new issues can arise. Therefore, this project focused on what happens at these interfaces from a combination of high temperatures, irradiation, corrosion, and time. After all, a reactor makes money when it is operating, and outages of any kind erode its economic viability. First, we set out to experimentally prove that MMLCs for at least two advanced reactor systems can be made, today, in US domestic facilities. In this respect we were successful – one MMLC (a Ni-201/Incoloy 800H composite) was successfully made and drawn into two-inch coolant piping. Others were attempted, though new issues relating to cracking in vanadium layers for one and radiation damage performance of the corrosion-resistant layer in another prevented us from moving further in those specific arenas – these are engineering problems which deserve continued focus after this project. Additional experimental work focused on long-term corrosion testing of the outermost layers of the salt-cooled and liquid lead-cooled MMLC concepts, which would then be fed into predictions of how long the MMLCs could last. Next, computational (thermodynamics and atomistic) simulation studies studied how much we expect the interfaces to “blend,” due to the mixing action of neutron irradiation. This eats into both the margin for the structural layer of each MMLC, as dilution from the corrosion-resistant layer into the structural layer would decrease the total load-bearing capacity of an MMLC of finite size. On the other hand, dilution of the corrosion-resistant layer into the structural layer further reduced the margin of corrodible material, reducing the lifetime of the MMLC or necessitating extra thickness to be imparted to the MMLC to meet its functional requirements. Work here focused on irradiation-induced segregation to predict new phases which may embrittle the MMLCs, as well as quantifying irradiation-induced mixing at each interface. The results showed that mixing is expected, but it is both steady and therefore predictable, and not lifetime-limiting for most MMLC concepts – it simply has to be accounted for in calculations of reactor performance when utilizing an MMLC. Then, full-core simulations using the experimentally-derived corrosion data, the computationally discovered irradiation-induced mixing data (partially validated by experiment), and existing, benchmarked core designs for large and small sized reactor concepts (one salt-cooled, one lead-cooled) were conducted to quantify any expansion of reactor operating envelopes achieved by utilizing these MMLCs. This new framework, called REX (Reactor Envelope Expansion), incorporates a combination of core neutronics, thermal hydraulics, and the material performance data derived from this project to see how using an MMLC expands advanced fission reactor operating envelopes. It was discovered that in some cases, MMLC utilization does indeed increase the maximum operating temperatures and cycle lengths of reactor concepts, while in other cases it does not. Finally, our tech-to-market (T2M) strategy was not necessarily to create specific embodiments of MMLCs for immediate sale (because getting into the nuclear market is incredibly slow and laden with regulation, this is a long-term goal), but rather immediate stimulation of US industry using the design approach of MMLCs derived from this project. In this respect we were successful, as one of the PhD students funded on this project co-founded Allium Engineering, Inc., which created a stainless steel / low-alloy steel MMLC to function as chloride corrosion-resistant rebar for embedding into concrete structures. Allium Engineering continues to be successful, having recently opened their first factory as of this writing.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Addressing delayed case reporting in infectious disease forecast modeling

Infectious disease forecasting is of great interest to the public health community and policymakers, since forecasts can provide insight into disease dynamics in the near future and inform interventions. Due to delays in case reporting, however, forecasting models may often underestimate the current and future disease burden. In this paper, we propose a general framework for addressing reporting delay in disease forecasting efforts with the goal of improving forecasts. We propose strategies for leveraging either historical data on case reporting or external internet-based data to estimate the amount of reporting error. We then describe several approaches for adapting general forecasting pipelines to account for under- or over-reporting of cases. We apply these methods to address reporting delay in data on dengue fever cases in Puerto Rico from 1990 to 2009 and to reports of influenza-like illness (ILI) in the United States between 2010 and 2019. Through a simulation study, we compare method performance and evaluate robustness to assumption violations. Our results show that forecasting accuracy and prediction coverage almost always increase when correction methods are implemented to address reporting delay. Some of these methods required knowledge about the reporting error or high quality external data, which may not always be available. Provided alternatives include excluding recently-reported data and performing sensitivity analysis. This work provides intuition and guidance for handling delay in disease case reporting and may serve as a useful resource to inform practical infectious disease forecasting efforts.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Dark Energy Survey Year 6 results: Intra-cluster light from redshift 0.2 to 0.5

Using the full 6 years of imaging data from the Dark Energy Survey, we study the surface brightness profiles of galaxy cluster central galaxies and intra-cluster light. We apply a ‘stacking’ method to over 4000 galaxy clusters identified by the redMaPPer cluster finder in the redshift range of 0.2−0.5. This yields high-signal-to-noise circularly averaged profile measurements of the central galaxy and intra-cluster light out to 1 Mpc from the cluster centre. Using redMaPPer richness as a cluster mass indicator, we find that the brightness of the intra-cluster light has a strong mass dependence throughout the 0.2−0.5 redshift range, and this dependence grows stronger at a larger radius. In terms of redshift evolution, we find some evidence that the central galaxy, as well as the diffuse light within the transition region between the cluster central galaxy and intra-cluster light within 80 kpc from the centre, may be growing over time. At larger radii, more than 80 kpc away from the cluster centre, we do not detect evidence of additional redshift evolution beyond the cluster mass dependence, consistent with the findings from the IllustrisTNG hydrodynamic simulation. We speculate that the major driver of intra-cluster light growth, especially at large radii, is associated with cluster mass growth. Finally, we find that the colour of the cluster central galaxy and intra-cluster light displays a radial gradient that becomes bluer at a larger radius, which is consistent with a stellar stripping and disruption origin of intra-cluster light as suggested by simulation studies.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗