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M2-SCREAM: A Stratospheric Composition Reanalysis of Aura MLS

Stratospheric composition and transport patterns are changing because of increasing greenhouse gas concentrations and declining levels of ozone depleting substances. Superimposed on forced trends are: dynamical variability at a range of time scales and unforeseen perturbations such as those resulting from injections of volcanic material and smoke from PyroCb events. Chemical reanalyses can be powerful tools for studying the composition of the stratosphere and disentangling forced responses from internal variability. This presentation introduces a new chemical reanalysis of stratospheric constituents developed and produced at NASA’s Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) using the recently developed GMAO Constituent Data Assimilation System. Called the MERRA-2 Stratospheric Composition Reanalysis with Aura MLS (M2-SCREAM), this reanalysis consists of assimilated global three-dimensional fields of stratospheric ozone, water vapor, hydrogen chloride (HCl), nitric acid (HNO3) and nitrous oxide (N2O) mixing ratios and covers the period since the beginning of MLS observations in September 2004 to the present. M2-SCREAM assimilates version 4.2 MLS profiles of the five constituents alongside total ozone column from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument. The dynamics and tropospheric water vapor are constrained by assimilated meteorological fields from MERRA-2. The assimilated constituent fields and meteorology are provided to users at a 50-km horizontal resolution and a three-hourly frequency. Monthly analysis uncertainties and flags are also provided to the users. M2-SCREAM is an accurate and dynamically consistent high-resolution data record of the five constituents, all of which are of primary importance to stratospheric chemistry and transport studies. We will present a description of M2-SCREAM and selected results of a process-based evaluation of this product using independent data. As an illustration, we will discuss the perturbation to stratospheric composition from the eruption of Hunga Tonga–Hunga Ha'apai in January 2022 as seen in the reanalysis. We will also propose potential scientific applications of M2-SCREAM and outline plans for an upcoming comprehensive composition reanalysis that is being developed at NASA GMAO.

MERRA-2↗

NASA Tech Briefs, April 2013

Topics covered include: Fully Integrated, Miniature, High-Frequency Flow Probe Utilizing MEMS Leadless SOI Technology; Nanoscale Surface Plasmonics Sensor With Nanofluidic Control; Advanced Dispersed Fringe Sensing Algorithm for Coarse Phasing Segmented Mirror Telescopes; Neural Network Back-Propagation Algorithm for Sensing Hypergols; Bulk Moisture and Salinity Sensor; Change-Based Satellite Monitoring Using Broad Coverage and Targetable Sensing; Circularly Polarized Microwave Antenna Element with Very Low Off-Axis Cross-Polarization; Ultra-Low Heat-Leak, High-Temperature Superconducting Current Leads for Space Applications; Flash Cracking Reactor for Waste Plastic Processing; An Automated Safe-to-Mate (ASTM) Tester; Wireless Chalcogenide Nanoionic-Based Radio-Frequency Switch; Compute Element and Interface Box for the Hazard Detection System; DOT Transmit Module; Composite Aerogel Multifoil Protective Shielding; Li-Ion Electrolytes with Improved Safety and Tolerance to High-Voltage Systems; Polymer-Reinforced, Non-Brittle, Lightweight Cryogenic Insulation; Controlled, Site-Specific Functionalization of Carbon Nanotubes with Diazonium Salts; Regenerable Sorbent for CO2 Removal; Sprayable Aerogel Bead Compositions With High Shear Flow Resistance and High Thermal Insulation Value; Lexan Linear Shaped Charge Holder with Magnets and Backing Plate; Robotic Ankle for Omnidirectional Rock Anchors; Wind, Wave, and Tidal Energy Without Power Conditioning; An Active Heater Control Concept to Meet IXO Type Mirror Module Thermal-Structural Distortion Requirement; Waterless Clothes-Cleaning Machine; Integrated Electrical Wire Insulation Repair System; LVGEMS Time-of-Flight Mass Spectrometry on Satellites; Surface Inspection Tool for Optical Detection of Surface Defects; Per-Pixel, Dual-Counter Scheme for Optical Communications; Certification-Based Process Analysis; Surface Navigation Using Optimized Waypoints and Particle Swarm Optimization; Smart-Divert Powered Descent Guidance to Avoid the Backshell Landing Dispersion Ellipse; Estimating Foreign-Object-Debris Density from Photogrammetry Data; Adaptive Sampling of Spatiotemporal Phenomena with Optimization Criteria; Building a 2.5D Digital Elevation Model From 2D Imagery; Eyes on the Earth 3D; Target Trailing With Safe Navigation for Maritime Autonomous Surface Vehicles; Adams-Based Rover Terramechanics and Mobility Simulator - ARTEMIS; ISTP CDF Skeleton Editor; Uplink Summary Generator (ULSGEN) Version 1.0; Robotics On-Board Trainer (ROBoT); Software Engineering Tools for Scientific Models; Automatic Data Filter Customization Using a Genetic Algorithm; Tracker Toolkit; Towards Efficient Scientific Data Management Using Cloud Storage; On a Formal Tool for Reasoning About Flight Software Cost Analysis; A Nanostructured Composites Thermal Switch Controls Internal and External Short Circuit in Lithium Ion Batteries; Spacecraft Crew Cabin Condensation Control; and Functional Near-Infrared Spectroscopy Signals Measure Neuronal Activity in the Cortex.

Source record↗

The Effect of Temperature on the Preservation of Volatile-Rich Lunar Samples

Introduction. The Moon’s south pole is a high-priority target for human exploration and scientific study. This interest is, in part, due to the presence of Permanently Shadowed Regions (PSRs), which could contain high concentrations of unique volatiles at cryogenic temperatures [1]. Returned samples from PSRs may include a unique combination of rocks, regolith, and volatile species, providing unprecedented insights into the history of the Solar System and the potential for resource utilization on the Moon. However, because PSR samples are cryogenic up-on collection, lunar polar sample return will eventually require cold stowage for the journey from the Moon to Earth. Without cold stowage, PSR sample return will likely result in phase changes and chemical reactions within the volatile component of the sample, which would negatively impact the resulting scientific studies of those samples. This abstract summarizes the initial results from an ongoing characterization of analog PSR samples at a range of temperatures, with the goal of defining the temperatures needed for a flight cold stowage freezer. Background. Based on remote sensing observations of the Moon [2], south polar PSRs range in temperature from ~120K for small and/or shallow PSRs to ~20K at the most extreme locations in large, deep PSRs. A range of volatiles have been hypothesized to exist at the surface or subsurface of the lunar poles [3-5 and others]. This hypothesis was verified when the LCROSS mission impacted the <50-K PSR in the crater Cabeus, detecting a range of volatiles from water to low condensation temperature species such as H2S and methane [6]. Species such as H2S and ammonia (also detected by LCROSS) are also highly reactive, and increase the likelihood of chemical reactions at elevated (non-cryogenic) temperatures. At the Johnson Space Center’s Planetary Exploration and Astromaterials Research Laboratory (JSC-PEARL), we have developed a volatile-bearing lunar simulant that incorporates several of the species detected by LCROSS [Table 1] mixed cryogenically with the USGS Lunar Highlands Type (LHT) regolith simulant. The new volatile-regolith simulant will be used to assess the degree of sample alteration at room temperature, -20°C, -80°C, and -196°C (liquid nitro-gen), over a two-week period. Room temperature samples represent those likely to be returned during initial missions without cold stowage, -20°C provides an analog to Apollo cold curated samples, -80°C is the temperature of multiple flight payload freezers (e.g., MELFI), and -196°C is analogous to lunar PSRs. Two weeks is an approximation of the time between sample collection and Earth return for initial Artemis missions. Over this period of time, sample head-space gases will be analyzed using a Universal Gas Analyzer (UGA, a type of mass spectrometer) coupled with a Baratron pressure sensor. After testing, the regolith component of the simulant will be purged of volatiles and preserved for future electron beam and/or FTIR analysis. Experimental Procedure. Volatile-regolith simulants will be produced as an initial homogenous batch; this batch will then be distributed into aliquots (gas chromatography/GC vials or cryo vials), ensuring that each sample has the same starting composition and conditions [Fig. 1]. In addition to the “full” simulant shown in Table 1, less complex simulant compositions will be used as baseline and control samples [Table 2]. Aliquots will be produced in triplicate for each simulant composition, storage temperature, and date of sampling. Headspace gases in all Day 0 samples will be analyzed by the UGA immediately. Cold storage samples for future analytical days will be placed in freezers appropriate to their target temperatures (-20°C, -80°C, -196°C). For ambient-temperature samples, regolith and regolith-water samples will be stored in a fume hood, while the full simulant will be stored in a sealed Parr vessel for safety; no other simulants (RWCM/ RWCM+) will be stored at ambient temperature for this test. Samples will be analyzed by UGA in this manner on each Analysis Day outlined in Table 2. Analytical Data. The UGA measures the partial pressures in a single sample aliquot over a set mass range of 0-105 atomic mass units (AMU) [Figure 2]; this set range was selected to slightly exceed the mass of the highest-mass expected reaction product (H2SO4). The Baratron complements the UGA by measuring the total pressure in the headspace of a sample vial. Coupled together, the quantitative abundances of gases will be monitored throughout the test. UGA analyses of the triplicate samples for each storage temperature, day, and simulant composition will be averaged, and standard deviations for each will be calculated. The compositions of starting species (shown in Table 1) will be characterized as a function of time, and the presence of any new compounds (reaction products) will be monitored as well. Total pressures will be recorded for each sample analysis, and any samples that show signs of leakage (e.g., a significant reduction in pressure or simulant volatiles) will be discarded. Anticipated Results. Testing is planned to begin in January 2022. The resulting data will allow compositional and phase changes in the volatile component of the simulants to be determined. Both the reduction in initial compounds and the addition of reaction products are expected to be observed. In addition, the relative efficacy of the different temperatures at pre-serving the initial composition of the simulants will be quantified. Finally, the regolith component of each sample will be argon-purged and stored in a controlled environment for future laboratory analysis. Compositional and morphological changes in the regolith are expected for samples above 0°C. This test will be repeated three times over the course of 2022. Understanding the effect of temperature on both the volatile and regolith components of analog lunar materials will allow requirements for a cold stowage freezer to be developed. The implementation of cold stowage for lunar polar missions will maximize the preservation of returned samples, enabling ground-breaking lunar and Solar System volatiles science for decades to come.

J L Mitchell↗

Analyzing Non Stationary Processes in Radiometers

The lack of well-developed techniques for modeling changing statistical moments in our observations has stymied the application of stochastic process theory for many scientific and engineering applications. Non linear effects of the observation methodology is one of the most perplexing aspects to modeling non stationary processes. This perplexing problem was encountered when modeling the effect of non stationary receiver fluctuations on the performance of radiometer calibration architectures. Existing modeling approaches were found not applicable; particularly problematic is modeling processes across scales over which they begin to exhibit non stationary behavior within the time interval of the calibration algorithm. Alternatively, the radiometer output is modeled as samples from a sequence random variables; the random variables are treated using a conditional probability distribution function conditioned on the use of the variable in the calibration algorithm. This approach of treating a process as a sequence of random variables with non stationary stochastic moments produce sensible predictions of temporal effects of calibration algorithms. To test these model predictions, an experiment using the Millimeter wave Imaging Radiometer (MIR) was conducted. The MIR with its two black body calibration references was configured in a laboratory setting to observe a third ultra-stable reference (CryoTarget). The MIR was programmed to sequentially sample each of the three references in approximately a 1 second cycle. Data were collected over a six-hour interval. The sequence of reference measurements form an ensemble sample set comprised of a series of three reference measurements. Two references are required to estimate the receiver response. A third reference is used to estimate the uncertainty in the estimate. Typically, calibration algorithms are designed to suppress the non stationary effects of receiver fluctuations. By treating the data sequence as an ensemble collection, it is possible to apply temporal algorithms which exacerbate the non stationary effects. By varying the algorithm, information about the properties of the non stationary receiver fluctuations is obtained. Comparisons of analytical calculations and statistical analysis of data demonstrate impressive agreement.

Racette, Paul↗

Reducing Surface Clutter in Cloud Profiling Radar Data

An algorithm has been devised to reduce ground clutter in the data products of the CloudSat Cloud Profiling Radar (CPR), which is a nadir-looking radar instrument, in orbit around the Earth, that measures power backscattered by clouds as a function of distance from the instrument. Ground clutter contaminates the CPR data in the lowest 1 km of the atmospheric profile, heretofore making it impossible to use CPR data to satisfy the scientific interest in studying clouds and light rainfall at low altitude. The algorithm is based partly on the fact that the CloudSat orbit is such that the geodetic altitude of the CPR varies continuously over a range of approximately 25 km. As the geodetic altitude changes, the radar timing parameters are changed at intervals defined by flight software in order to keep the troposphere inside a data-collection time window. However, within each interval, the surface of the Earth continuously "scans through" (that is, it moves across) a few range bins of the data time window. For each radar profile, only few samples [one for every range-bin increment ((Delta)r = 240 m)] of the surface-clutter signature are available around the range bin in which the peak of surface return is observed, but samples in consecutive radar profiles are offset slightly (by amounts much less than (Delta)r) with respect to each other according to the relative change in geodetic altitude. As a consequence, in a case in which the surface area under examination is homogenous (e.g., an ocean surface), a sequence of consecutive radar profiles of the surface in that area contains samples of the surface response with range resolution (Delta)p much finer than the range-bin increment ((Delta)p << r). Once the high-resolution surface response has thus become available, the profile of surface clutter can be accurately estimated by use of a conventional maximum-correlation scheme: A translated and scaled version of the high-resolution surface response is fitted to the observed low-resolution profile. The translation and scaling factors that optimize the fit in a maximum-correlation sense represent (1) the true position of the surface relative to the sampled surface peak and (2) the magnitude of the surface backscatter. The performance of this algorithm has been tested on CloudSat data acquired over an ocean surface. A preliminary analysis of the test data showed a surface-clutter-rejection ratio over flat surfaces of >10 dB and a reduction of the contaminated altitude over ocean from about 1 km to about 0.5 km (over the ocean). The algorithm has been embedded in CloudSat L1B processing as of Release 04 (July 2007), and the estimated flat surface clutter is removed in L2B-GEOPROF product from the observed profile of reflectivity (see CloudSat product documentation for details and performance at http://www.cloudsat.cira.colostate.edu/ dataSpecs.php?prodid=1).

Tanelli, Simone↗

Analysis of heat transfer and AuNPs-mediated photo-thermal inactivation of E. coli at varying laser powers using single-phase CFD modeling

In the wake of the COVID-19 pandemics, the demand for innovative and effective methods of bacterial inactivation has become a critical area of research, providing the impetus for this study. The purpose of this research is to analyze the AuNPs-mediated photothermal inactivation of E. coli. Gold nanoparticles irradiated by laser represent a promising technique for combating bacterial infection that combines high-tech and scientific progress. The intermediate aim of the work was to present the calibration of the model with respect to the gold nanorods experiment. The purpose of this work is to study the effect of initial concentration of E. coli bacteria, the design of the chamber and the laser power on heat transfer and inactivation of E. coli bacteria. Using the CFD simulation, the work combines three main concepts. 1. The conversion of laser light to heat has been described by a combination of three distinctive approximations: a- Discrete particle integration to take into account every nanoparticle within the system, b- Rayleigh-Drude approximation to determine the scattering and extinction coefficients and c- Lambert–Beer–Bourger law to describe the decrease in laser intensity across the AuNPs. 2. The contribution of the presence of E. coli bacteria to the thermal and fluid-dynamic fields in the microdevice was modeled by single-phase approach by determining the effective thermophysical properties of the water-bacteria mixture. 3. An approach based on a temperature threshold attained at which bacteria will be inactivated, has been used to predict bacterial response to temperature increases. The comparison of the thermal fields and temporal temperature changes obtained by the CFD simulation with those obtained experimentally confirms the accuracy of the light-heat conversion model derived from the aforementioned approximations. The results show a linear relationship between maximum temperature and variation in laser power over the range studied, which is in line with previous experimental results. It was also found that the temperature inside the microchamber can exceed 55 °C only when a laser power higher than 0.8 W is used, so bacterial inactivation begins. The experimental data allows to determinate the concentration of nanoparticles. This parameter is introduced into the mathematical model obtaining the same number of AuNPs. However, this assumption introduces a certain simplification, as in the mathematical model the distribution of nanoparticles is uniform. This work is directly connected to the use of gold nanoparticles for energy conversion, as well as the field of bacterial inactivation in microfluidic systems such as lab-on-a-chip. Presented mathematical and numerical models can be extended to the entire spectrum of wavelengths with particular use of white light in the inactivation of bacteria. This work represents a significant advancement in the field, as to the best of the authors’ knowledge, it is the first to employ a single-phase computational fluid dynamics (CFD) approach specifically combined with the thermal inactivation of bacteria. Moreover, this research pioneers the use of a numerical simulation to analyze the temperature threshold of photothermal inactivation of E. coli mediated by gold nanorods (AuNRs). The integration of these methodologies offers a new perspective on optimizing bacterial inactivation techniques, making this study a valuable contribution to both computational modeling and biomedical applications.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

The ATIC Long Duration Balloon Project

Long Duration Balloon (LDB) scientific experiments, launched to circumnavigate the south pole over Antarctica, have particular advantages compared to Shuttle or other Low Earth Orbit (LEO) missions in terms of cost, weight, scientific 'duty factor' and work force development. The Advanced Thin Ionization Calorimeter (ATIC) cosmic ray astrophysics experiment is a good example of a university-based project that takes full advantage of current LDB capability. The ATIC experiment is currently being prepared for its first LDB science flight that will investigate the charge composition and energy spectra of primary cosmic rays over the energy range from about 10(exp 10) to 10(exp 14) eV. The instrument is built around a fully active, Bismuth Germanate (BGO) ionization calorimeter to measure the energy deposited by the cascades formed by particles interacting in a thick carbon target. A highly segmented silicon matrix, located above the target, provides good incident charge resolution plus rejection of the 'backscattered' particles from the interaction. Trajectory reconstruction is based on the cascade profile in the BGO calorimeter, plus information from the three pairs of scintillator hodoscope layers in the target section above it. A full evaluation of the experiment was performed during a test flight occurring between 28 December 2000 and 13 January 2001 where ATIC was carried to an altitude of approx. 37 km above Antarctica by an approx. 850,000 cu m helium filled balloon for one circumnavigation of the continent. All systems behaved well, the detectors performed as expected, more than 43 gigabytes of engineering and cosmic ray event data was returned and these data are now undergoing preliminary data analysis. During the coming 2002-2003 Antarctica summer season, we are preparing for a ATIC science flight with approx. 15 to 30 days of continuous data collection in the near-space environment of LDB float altitudes.

Guzik, T. G.↗

The Chemistry Graduate Student Experience: Findings from an ACS Survey

Graduate training is a key element in producing a scientific workforce that reflects the nation’s diversity. This paper examines data from a 2013 American Chemical Society (ACS) survey of 2,544 chemistry masters and doctoral students and reveals barriers to reaching this goal. Multivariate statistical analyses indicate that women reported significantly less supportive relationships with advisors. Women were less likely to plan to finish their degrees, and for PhD students, the discrepancy was larger for students at the start of their graduate program. Women were also less likely to pursue the next level of training, and the gender difference related to postdoctoral plans was greater for those who identified with a racial-ethnic group traditionally underrepresented in chemistry (underrepresented minority, URM). URM students who were beyond the first year of their graduate program reported significantly less supportive relationships with peers. They were also less likely to have funding sufficient to meet their needs and more often used personal resources including loans. Despite these difficulties, URM students were more likely to definitely plan to finish their degrees, and men who identified as URM were more likely to plan to pursue postdoctoral work. Independent of gender and identification as URMs, students in more highly ranked schools reported less advisor support. Extensive open-ended comments indicated that large proportions of the students desired more attention and meaningful feedback from advisors and changes within their programs to promote support for students and advisor accountability. Suggestions for future research are given, and a companion commentary discusses needed directions for change.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

QA/QC-ed Groundwater Level Time Series in PLM-1 and PLM-6 Monitoring Wells, East River, Colorado (2016-2022)

This data set contains QA/QC-ed (Quality Assurance and Quality Control) water level data for the PLM1 and PLM6 wells. PLM1 and PLM6 are location identifiers used by the Watershed Function SFA project for two groundwater monitoring wells along an elevation gradient located along the lower montane life zone of a hillslope near the Pumphouse location at the East River Watershed, Colorado, USA. These wells are used to monitor subsurface water and carbon inventories and fluxes, and to determine the seasonally dependent flow of groundwater under the PLM hillslope. The downslope flow of groundwater in combination with data on groundwater chemistry (see related references) can be used to estimate rates of solute export from the hillslope to the floodplain and river. QA/QC analysis of measured groundwater levels in monitoring wells PLM-1 and PLM-6 included identification and flagging of duplicated values of timestamps, gap filling of missing timestamps and water levels, removal of abnormal/bad and outliers of measured water levels. The QA/QC analysis also tested the application of different QA/QC methods and the development of regular (5-minute, 1-hour, and 1-day) time series datasets, which can serve as a benchmark for testing other QA/QC techniques, and will be applicable for ecohydrological modeling. The package includes a Readme file, one R code file used to perform QA/QC, a series of 8 data csv files (six QA/QC-ed regular time series datasets of varying intervals (5-min, 1-hr, 1-day) and two files with QA/QC flagging of original data), and three files for the reporting format adoption of this dataset (InstallationMethods, file level metadata (flmd), and data dictionary (dd) files).QA/QC-ed data herein were derived from the original/raw data publication available at Williams et al., 2020 (DOI: 10.15485/1818367). For more information about running R code file (10.15485_1866836_QAQC_PLM1_PLM6.R) to reproduce QA/QC output files, see README (QAQC_PLM_readme.docx). This dataset replaces the previously published raw data time series, and is the final groundwater data product for the PLM wells in the East River. Complete metadata information on the PLM1 and PLM6 wells are available in a related dataset on ESS-DIVE: Varadharajan C, et al (2022). https://doi.org/10.15485/1660962. These data products are part of the Watershed Function Scientific Focus Area collection effort to further scientific understanding of biogeochemical dynamics from genome to watershed scales. 2022/09/09 Update: Converted data files using ESS-DIVE’s Hydrological Monitoring Reporting Format. With the adoption of this reporting format, the addition of three new files (v1_20220909_flmd.csv, V1_20220909_dd.csv, and InstallationMethods.csv) were added. The file-level metadata file (v1_20220909_flmd.csv) contains information specific to the files contained within the dataset. The data dictionary file (v1_20220909_dd.csv) contains definitions of column headers and other terms across the dataset. The installation methods file (InstallationMethods.csv) contains a description of methods associated with installation and deployment at PLM1 and PLM6 wells. Additionally, eight data files were re-formatted to follow the reporting format guidance (er_plm1_waterlevel_2016-2020.csv, er_plm1_waterlevel_1-hour_2016-2020.csv, er_plm1_waterlevel_daily_2016-2020.csv, QA_PLM1_Flagging.csv, er_plm6_waterlevel_2016-2020.csv, er_plm6_waterlevel_1-hour_2016-2020.csv, er_plm6_waterlevel_daily_2016-2020.csv, QA_PLM6_Flagging.csv). The major changes to the data files include the addition of header_rows above the data containing metadata about the particular well, units, and sensor description. 2023/01/18 Update: Dataset updated to include additional QA/QC-ed water level data up until 2022-10-12 for ER-PLM1 and 2022-10-13 for ER-PLM6. Reporting format specific files (v2_20230118_flmd.csv, v2_20230118_dd.csv, v2_20230118_InstallationMethods.csv) were updated to reflect the additional data. R code file (QAQC_PLM1_PLM6.R) was added to replace the previously uploaded HTML files to enable execution of the associated code. R code file (QAQC_PLM1_PLM6.R) and ReadMe file (QAQC_PLM_readme.docx) were revised to clarify where original data was retrieved from and to remove local file paths.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Trend Detection of Atmospheric Time Series: Incorporating Appropriate Uncertainty Estimates and Handling Extreme Events

This paper is aimed at atmospheric scientists without formal training in statistical theory. Its goal is to, 1) provide a critical review of the rationale for trend analysis of the time series typically encountered in the field of atmospheric chemistry; 2) describe a range of trend-detection methods; and 3) demonstrate effective means of conveying the results to a general audience. Trend detections in atmospheric chemical composition data are often challenged by a variety of sources of uncertainty, which often behave differently to other environmental phenomena such as temperature, precipitation rate, or stream flow, and may require specific methods depending on the science questions to be addressed. Some sources of uncertainty can be explicitly included in the model specification, such as autocorrelation and seasonality, but some inherent uncertainties are difficult to quantify, such as data heterogeneity and measurement uncertainty due to the combined effect of short- and long-term natural variability, instrumental stability, and aggregation of data from sparse sampling frequency. Failure to account for these uncertainties might result in an inappropriate inference of the trends and their estimation errors. On the other hand, the variation in extreme events might be interesting for different scientific questions, for example, the frequency of extremely high surface ozone events and their relevance to human health. In this study we aim to, 1) review trend detection methods for addressing different levels of data complexity in different chemical species; 2) demonstrate that the incorporation of scientifically interpretable covariates can outperform pure numerical curve fitting techniques in terms of uncertainty reduction and improved predictability; 3) illustrate the study of trends based on extreme quantiles that can provide insight beyond standard mean or median based trend estimates; and 4) present an advanced method of quantifying regional trends based on the inter-site correlations of multi-site data. All demonstrations are based on time series of observed trace gases relevant to atmospheric chemistry, but the methods can be applied to other environmental data sets.

Trace gas↗

Validation of Atmosphere/Ionosphere Signals Associated with Major Earthquakes by Multi-Instrument Space-Borne and Ground Observations

The latest catastrophic earthquake in Japan (March 2011) has renewed interest in the important question of the existence of pre-earthquake anomalous signals related to strong earthquakes. Recent studies have shown that there were precursory atmospheric/ionospheric signals observed in space associated with major earthquakes. The critical question, still widely debated in the scientific community, is whether such ionospheric/atmospheric signals systematically precede large earthquakes. To address this problem we have started to investigate anomalous ionospheric / atmospheric signals occurring prior to large earthquakes. We are studying the Earth's atmospheric electromagnetic environment by developing a multisensor model for monitoring the signals related to active tectonic faulting and earthquake processes. The integrated satellite and terrestrial framework (ISTF) is our method for validation and is based on a joint analysis of several physical and environmental parameters (thermal infrared radiation, electron concentration in the ionosphere, lineament analysis, radon/ion activities, air temperature and seismicity) that were found to be associated with earthquakes. A physical link between these parameters and earthquake processes has been provided by the recent version of Lithosphere-Atmosphere-Ionosphere Coupling (LAIC) model. Our experimental measurements have supported the new theoretical estimates of LAIC hypothesis for an increase in the surface latent heat flux, integrated variability of outgoing long wave radiation (OLR) and anomalous variations of the total electron content (TEC) registered over the epicenters. Some of the major earthquakes are accompanied by an intensification of gas migration to the surface, thermodynamic and hydrodynamic processes of transformation of latent heat into thermal energy and with vertical transport of charged aerosols in the lower atmosphere. These processes lead to the generation of external electric currents in specific regions of the atmosphere and the modifications, by dc electric fields, in the ionosphere-atmosphere electric circuit. We retrospectively analyzed temporal and spatial variations of four different physical parameters (gas/radon counting rate, lineaments change, long-wave radiation transitions and ionospheric electron density/plasma variations) characterizing the state of the lithosphere/atmosphere coupling several days before the onset of the earthquakes. Validation processes consist in two phases: A. Case studies for seven recent major earthquakes: Japan (M9.0, 2011), China (M7.9, 2008), Italy (M6.3, 2009), Samoa (M7, 2009), Haiti (M7.0, 2010) and, Chile (M8.8, 2010) and B. A continuous retrospective analysis was preformed over two different regions with high seismicity- Taiwan and Japan for 2003-2009. Satellite, ground surface, and troposphere data were obtained from Terra/ASTER, Aqua/AIRS, POES and ionospheric variations from DEMETER and COSMIC-I data. Radon and GPS/TEC were obtaining from monitoring sites in Taiwan, Japan and Italy and from global ionosphere maps (GIM) respectively. Our analysis of ground and satellite data during the occurrence of 7 global earthquakes has shown the presence of anomalies in the atmosphere. Our results for Tohoku M9.0 earthquake show that on March 7th, 2011 (4 days before the main shock and 1 day before the M7.2 foreshock of March 8, 2011) a rapid increase of emitted infrared radiation was observed by the satellite data and an anomaly was developed near the epicenter. The GPS/TEC data indicate an increase and variation in electron density reaching a maximum value on March 8. From March 3 to 11 a large increase in electron concentration was recorded at all four Japanese ground-based ionosondes, which returned to normal after the main earthquake. Similar approach for analyzing atmospheric and ionospheric parameters has been applied for China (M7.9, 2008), Italy (M6.3, 2009), Samoa (M7, 2009), Haiti (M7.0, 2010) and Chile (M8.8, 2010) eahquakes. Results have revealed the presence of related variations of these parameters implying their connection with the earthquake process. The second phase (B) of this validation included 102 major earthquakes (M>5.9) in Taiwan and Japan. We have found anomalous behavior before all of these events with no false negatives. False alarm ratio for false positives is less then 10% and has been calculated for the same month of the earthquake occurrence for the entire period of analysis (2003-2009). The commonalities for detecting atmospheric/ionospheric anomalies are: i.) Regularly appearance over regions of maximum stress (i.e., along plate boundaries); ii.) Anomaly existence over land and sea; and iii) association with M>5.9 earthquakes not deeper than 100km. Due to their long duration over the same region these anomalies are not consistent with a meteorological origin. Our initial results from the ISTF validation of multi-instrument space-borne and ground observations show a systematic appearance of atmospheric anomalies near the epicentral area, one to seven (average) days prior to the largest earthquakes, and suggest that it could be explained by a coupling process between the observed physical parameters and the pre-earthquake preparation processes.

Ouzounov, Dimitar↗

Scientific Impact of MODIS C5 Calibration Degradation and C6+ Improvements

The Collection 6 (C6) MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) land and atmosphere data sets are scheduled for release in 2014. C6 contains significant revisions of the calibration approach to account for sensor aging. This analysis documents the presence of systematic temporal trends in the visible and near-infrared (500 m) bands of the Collection 5 (C5) MODIS Terra and, to lesser extent, in MODIS Aqua geophysical data sets. Sensor degradation is largest in the blue band (B3) of the MODIS sensor on Terra and decreases with wavelength. Calibration degradation causes negative global trends in multiple MODIS C5 products including the dark target algorithm's aerosol optical depth over land and Ångstrom exponent over the ocean, global liquid water and ice cloud optical thickness, as well as surface reflectance and vegetation indices, including the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and enhanced vegetation index (EVI). As the C5 production will be maintained for another year in parallel with C6, one objective of this paper is to raise awareness of the calibration-related trends for the broad MODIS user community. The new C6 calibration approach removes major calibrations trends in the Level 1B (L1B) data. This paper also introduces an enhanced C6C calibration of the MODIS data set which includes an additional polarization correction (PC) to compensate for the increased polarization sensitivity of MODIS Terra since about 2007, as well as detrending and Terra- Aqua cross-calibration over quasi-stable desert calibration sites. The PC algorithm, developed by the MODIS ocean biology processing group (OBPG), removes residual scan angle, mirror side and seasonal biases from aerosol and surface reflectance (SR) records along with spectral distortions of SR. Using the multiangle implementation of atmospheric correction (MAIAC) algorithm over deserts, we have also developed a detrending and cross-calibration method which removes residual decadal trends on the order of several tenths of 1% of the top-of-atmosphere (TOA) reflectance in the visible and near-infrared MODIS bands B1-B4, and provides a good consistency between the two MODIS sensors. MAIAC analysis over the southern USA shows that the C6C approach removed an additional negative decadal trend of Terra (Delta)NDVI approx.0.01 as compared to Aqua data. This change is particularly important for analysis of vegetation dynamics and trends in the tropics, e.g., Amazon rainforest, where the morning orbit of Terra provides considerably more cloud-free observations compared to the afternoon Aqua measurements.

Terra and Aqua↗

Pterodactyl: Integrated Control Design for Precision Targeting of Deployable Entry Vehicles

Deployable Entry Vehicles (DEVs) enable in-situ scientific exploration at destinations with atmospheres across the solar system. Because they stow in a compact form and deploy only when ready to enter the atmosphere, DEVs relax the volume constraint imposed by rigid aeroshells. This work seeks to do for a DEV what the Wright Brothers did to propel modern day aviation: develop the guidance and control (G&C) methods that will make maneuvering and precision landing of DEV a reality. The Pterodactyl project objective is to deliver an integrated G&C methodology for a DEV, based on a detailed analysis that utilizes a Multi-disciplinary, Design, Analysis and Optimization (MDAO) framework. The current state-of-the-art for blunt body entry, G&C is rooted in the precision landing of vehicles such as Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) and Apollo, which used a propulsive reaction control system (RCS) to steer. Recent research has taken a particular interest in non-propulsive control for DEVs, including direct force control (angle of attack modulation via control surfaces or mass movement) and drag modulation (discrete change in ballistic coefficient). Using the MDAO framework that includes a guidance and control model to explore multiple control concepts for a DEV will shed light on the best design approach for these vehicles. In Pterodactyl, we will complete this study for a novel DEV concept, and then we will fabricate a functional prototype to help validate the design. The project is expected to down-select to a final control architecture by the end of 2018, and complete fabrication of the prototype by the end of 2019.The DEV chosen for detailed study in this project is the Adaptable Deployable Entry and Placement Technology (ADEPT). ADEPT uses a revolutionary 3D-woven carbon fabric that is foldable, can serve as primary structure, and can survive the extreme heating environment of atmospheric entry. The specific configuration of ADEPT under investigation is called Lifting Nano-ADEPT (LNA). LNA is designed for secondary payloads missions that require precision landing either for scientific objectives at a target destination or for payload recovery at Earth.The MDAO framework being created through this research, called COBRA-Pt (Composite Beam Roll-Up Solar Array-Prototype), will combine three critical elements of the system design: a guidance algorithm with Monte Carlo, a parametric control model, and vehicle geometry details. Novel control models being studied are deployable aerodynamic surfaces as well as shape morphing. These concepts will be compared at the system level with a more traditional propulsive RCS by comparing several key performance parameters. Upon completion of the design study, a functional prototype of LNA will be fabricated that will include the integration of guidance software and relevant control actuators. We expect this study will provide critical data that could feed into the development of an Earth-based flight test of LNA. The COBRA-Pt framework will provide a modular system by which to study any DEV concept in any atmosphere.

Smith, Brandon↗

Opportunities in AI/ML for the Rubin LSST Dark Energy Science Collaboration

The Vera C. Rubin Observatory's Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) will produce unprecedented volumes of heterogeneous astronomical data (images, catalogs, and alerts) that challenge traditional analysis pipelines. The LSST Dark Energy Science Collaboration (DESC) aims to derive robust constraints on dark energy and dark matter from these data, requiring methods that are statistically powerful, scalable, and operationally reliable. Artificial intelligence and machine learning (AI/ML) are already embedded across DESC science workflows, from photometric redshifts and transient classification to weak lensing inference and cosmological simulations. Yet their utility for precision cosmology hinges on trustworthy uncertainty quantification, robustness to covariate shift and model misspecification, and reproducible integration within scientific pipelines. This white paper surveys the current landscape of AI/ML across DESC's primary cosmological probes and cross-cutting analyses, revealing that the same core methodologies and fundamental challenges recur across disparate science cases. Since progress on these cross-cutting challenges would benefit multiple probes simultaneously, we identify key methodological research priorities, including Bayesian inference at scale, physics-informed methods, validation frameworks, and active learning for discovery. With an eye on emerging techniques, we also explore the potential of the latest foundation model methodologies and LLM-driven agentic AI systems to reshape DESC workflows, provided their deployment is coupled with rigorous evaluation and governance. Finally, we discuss critical software, computing, data infrastructure, and human capital requirements for the successful deployment of these new methodologies, and consider associated risks and opportunities for broader coordination with external actors.

Aubourg, Eric [APC, Paris] (ORCID:000000025592023X↗

NASA's Upper Atmosphere Research Program UARP and Atmospheric Chemistry Modeling and Analysis Program (ACMAP): Research Summaries 1994 - 1996. Report to Congress and the Environmental Protection Agency

Under the mandate contained in the FY 1976 NASA Authorization Act, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) has developed and is implementing a comprehensive program of research, technology, and monitoring of the Earth's upper atmosphere, with emphasis on the stratosphere. This program aims at expanding our understanding to permit both the quantitative analysis of current perturbations as well as the assessment of possible future changes in this important region of our environment. It is carried out jointly by the Upper Atmosphere Research Program (UARP) and the Atmospheric Chemistry Modeling and Analysis Program (ACMAP), both managed within the Science Division in the Office of Mission to Planet Earth at NASA. Significant contributions to this effort are also provided by the Atmospheric Effects of Aviation Project (AEAP) of NASA's Office of Aeronautics. The long-term objectives of the present program are to perform research to: understand the physics, chemistry, and transport processes of the upper atmosphere and their effect on the distribution of chemical species in the stratosphere, such as ozone; understand the relationship of the trace constituent composition of the lower stratosphere and the lower troposphere to the radiative balance and temperature distribution of the Earth's atmosphere; and accurately assess possible perturbations of the upper atmosphere caused by human activities as well as by natural phenomena. In compliance with the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990, Public Law 101-549, NASA has prepared a report on the state of our knowledge of the Earth's upper atmosphere, particularly the stratosphere, and on the progress of UARP and ACMAP. The report for the year 1996 is composed of two parts. Part 1 summarizes the objectives, status, and accomplishments of the research tasks supported under NASA UARP and ACMAP in a document entitled, Research Summary 1994-1996. Part 2 is entitled Present State of Knowledge of the Upper Atmosphere 1996.- An Assessment Report. It consists primarily of the Executive Summary and Chapter Summaries of the World Meteorological Organization Global Ozone Research and Monitoring Project Report No. 37, Scientific Assessment of Ozone Depletion: 1994, sponsored by NASA, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the UK Department of the Environment, the United Nations Environment Program, and the World Meteorological Organization. Other sections of Part 11 include summaries of the following: an Atmospheric Ozone Research Plan from NASA's Office of Mission to Planet Earth; summaries from a series of Space Shuttle-based missions and two recent airborne measurement campaigns; the Executive Summary of the 1995 Scientific Assessment of the Atmospheric Effects of Stratospheric Aircraft, and the most recent evaluation of photochemical and chemical kinetics data (Evaluation No. 12 of the NASA Panel for Data Evaluation) used as input parameters for atmospheric models.

Kendall, Rose↗

Analysis of Sample Acquisition Dynamics Using Discrete Element Method

The analysis presented in this paper is conducted in the framework of the Ocean Worlds Autonomy Testbed for Exploration Research and Simulation (OceanWATERS) project, currently under development at NASA Ames Research Center. OceanWATERS aims at designing a simulation environment which allows for testing autonomy of scientific lander missions to the icy moons of our solar system. Mainly focused on reproducing the end effector interaction with the inherent terrain, this paper introduces a novel discrete element method (DEM)-based approach to determine forces and torques acting on the lander’s scoop during the sample acquisition process. An accurate force feedback from the terrain on the scoop is required by fault-detection and autonomous decision-making algorithms to identify when the requested torque on the robotic arm’s joints exceeds the maximum available torque. Knowledge of the terrain force feedback significantly helps evaluating the arm’s links structural properties and properly selecting actuators for the joints. Models available in literature constitute a partial representation of the dynamics of the interaction. As an example, Balovnev derived an analytical expression of the vertical and horizontal force acting on a bucket while collecting a sample as a function of its geometry and velocity, soil parameters and reached depth. Although the model represents an adequate approximation of the two force components, it ignores the direction orthogonal to the scoop motion and neglects the torque. This work relies on DEM analysis to compensate for analytical models’ deficiencies and inaccuracies, i. e. provide force and torque 3D vectors, defined in the moving reference (body) frame attached to the scoop, at each instant of the sample collection process. Results from the first presented analysis relate to the specific OceanWATERS sampling strategy, which consists of collecting the sample through five consecutive passes with increasing depth, each pass following the same circularlinear- circular trajectory. Data is collected given a specific scoop design interacting with two types of bulk materials, which may characterize the surface of icy planetary bodies: snow and ice. Although specifically concerned with the OceanWATERS design, this first analysis provides the expected force trends for similar sampling strategies and allows to deduce phenomenological information about the general scooping process. In order to further instruct the community on the use of DEM tools as a solution to the sampling collection problem, two more analyses have been carried out, mainly focused on reducing the DEM computation time, which increases with a decrease in particle size. After running a set of identical simulations, where the only changing parameter is the size of the spherical particle, it is observed that the resulting force trajectories, starting from a given particle size, converge to the true trend. It is deducible that a further decrease in size yields negligible improvements in the accuracy, while it sensibly increases computation time. A final analysis aims at discussing limitations of approximating bulk material particles having a complex shape, e. g. ice fragments, with spheres, by comparing force trends resulting in the two cases for the same simulation scenario.

Catanoso, Damiana↗

Operations Analysis of Space Shuttle System

The space science program at NASA since 1950's has gone through stages of development and implementation in rocketry and scientific advancement. It has become the nation's largest scientific institution of research and innovation for space exploration and military research, and overall a pride of the nation at an exorbitant cost. After placing man on moon, space shuttle program at NASA is an on-going project with a high success rate at an average cost of about $450m per flight. A future endeavor from both government and private sectors needs to be undertaken for commercialization of this expensive mission. In order to attract private enterprises, it needs to boost up its operations with better technology at lower cost to cope with rapid changes in scientific advancement and economic competition. Thus, a second-generation reusable launch vehicle (2GRLV) will play a major role in future operation of NASA centers. Envisioning this potential way of saving the program by reducing the cost, NASA is currently managing an innovative program called the Space Launch Initiative (SLI) to develop key technologies that will support the development of second-generation reusable launch vehicles (RLV) which will be more economical and safer and reliable than the existing space shuttle system. The selection of which technologies to fund for further development is being based on their likelihood to contribute to providing cost reduction or safety improvements. It is envisioned that in the 2006 timeframe, NASA will make a decision as to whether or not to commit to the replacement of the current space shuttle system with a new RLV. The decision to proceed with a new RLV will be partly based on the likelihood that the new system will be better than the existing space shuttle. Government and private entrepreneurs are currently considering four different types of RLV projects: commercial programs, government programs, international concepts, and X Prize competitors. NASA has already commissioned a series of X-programs to study the future RLV program. Today, NASA decision makers need analytical tools to help determine which technologies to fund the development of this technology. In the 2006 timeframe, these same decision makers will need analytical tools to evaluate and compare various RLV architectures, including the existing space shuttle so as to make the best decision for whether or not to proceed with the development of a new RLV, and if so, then which one. A study is conducted here to establish ground level knowledge from the historical data and expertise experiences of the field personnel. Such information is compiled in the form of mission statement, goals, space shuttle operations, payloads and cargo constraints, resource constraints, and bottlenecks to the enhancement vector.

Bhaba R. Sarker↗

The HTAP_v3.2 emission mosaic: merging regional and global monthly emissions (2000–2020) to support air quality modelling and policies

This study, performed under the umbrella of the Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution (TF-HTAP), responds to the need of the global and regional atmospheric modelling community of having a mosaic emission inventory of air pollutants that conforms to specific requirements: global coverage, long time series, spatially distributed emissions with high time resolution, and a high sectoral resolution. The mosaic approach of integrating official regional emission inventories based on locally reported data, with a global inventory based on a globally consistent methodology, allows modellers to perform simulations of a high scientific quality while also ensuring that the results remain relevant to policymakers. HTAP_v3.2, an ad-hoc global mosaic of anthropogenic inventories, is an update to the HTAP_v3 global mosaic inventory and has been developed by integrating official inventories over specific areas (North America, Europe, Asia including China, Japan and Korea) with the independent Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR) inventory for the remaining world regions. The results are spatially and temporally distributed emissions of SO 2 , NO x , CO, NMVOC, NH 3 , PM 10 , PM 2.5 , Black Carbon (BC), and Organic Carbon (OC), with a spatial resolution of 0.1 × 0.1° and time intervals of months and years covering the period 2000–2020 (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.17086684, Crippa, 2025, https://edgar.jrc.ec.europa.eu/dataset_htap_v32, last access: 27 October 2025). The emissions are further disaggregated to 16 anthropogenic emitting sectors. This paper describes the methodology applied to develop such an emission mosaic, reports on source allocation, differences among existing inventories, and best practices for the mosaic compilation. One of the key strengths of the HTAP_v3.2 emission mosaic is its temporal coverage, enabling the analysis of emission trends over the past two decades. The development of a global emission mosaic over such long time series represents a unique product for global air quality modelling and for better-informed policy making, reflecting the community effort expended by the TF-HTAP to disentangle the complexity of transboundary transport of air pollution.

Guizzardi, Diego [European Commission, Ispra (Ital↗