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NASA NTRS2001

Solving and Learning Soft Temporal Constraints: Experimental Scenario and Examples

Soft temporal constraint problems allow to describe in a natural way scenarios where events happen over time and preferences are associated to event distances and durations. However, sometimes such local preferences are difficult to set, and it may be easier instead to associate preferences to some complete solutions of the problem. To model everything in a uniform way via local preferences only, and also to take advantage of the existing constraint solvers which exploit only local preference use machine learning techniques which learn the local preferences from the global ones. In this paper we describe the existing framework for both solving and learning preferences in temporal constraint problems, the implemented modules, the experimental scenario, and preliminary results on some examples.

Rossi, F.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Methodology for Generating Conflict Scenarios by Time Shifting Recorded Traffic Data

A methodology is presented for generating conflict scenarios that can be used as test cases to estimate the operational performance of a conflict probe. Recorded air traffic data is time shifted to create traffic scenarios featuring conflicts with characteristic properties similar to those encountered in typical air traffic operations. First, a reference set of conflicts is obtained from trajectories that are computed using birth points and nominal flight plans extracted from recorded traffic data. Distributions are obtained for several primary properties (e.g., encounter angle) that are most likely to affect the performance of a conflict probe. A genetic algorithm is then utilized to determine the values of time shifts for the recorded track data so that the primary properties of conflicts generated by the time shifted data match those of the reference set. This methodology is successfully demonstrated using recorded traffic data for the Memphis Air Route Traffic Control Center; a key result is that the required time shifts are less than 5 min for 99% of the tracks. It is also observed that close matching of the primary properties used in this study additionally provides a good match for some other secondary properties.

Paglione, Mike↗

NASA NTRS2004

Space mission scenario development and performance analysis tool

This paper discusses a new and innovative approach for a rapid spacecraft multi-disciplinary performance analysis using a tool called the Mission Scenario Development Workbench (MSDW). To meet the needs of new classes of space missions, analysis tools with proven models were developed and integrated into a framework to enable rapid trades and analyses between spacecraft designs and operational scenarios during the formulation phase of a mission. Generally speaking, spacecraft resources are highly constrained on deep space missions and this approach makes it possible to maximize the use of existing resources to attain the best possible science return. This approach also has the potential benefit of reducing the risk of costly design changes made later in the design cycle necessary to meet the mission requirements by understanding system design sensitivities early and adding appropriate margins. This paper will describe the approach used by the Mars Science Laboratory Project to accomplish this result.

performance analysis↗

NASA NTRS2007

Future Fuel Scenarios and Their Potential Impact to Aviation

In recent years fuel prices have been growing at a rapid pace. Current conservative projections predict that this is only a function of the natural volatility of oil prices, similar to the oil price spikes experienced in the 1970s. However, there is growing concern among analysts that the current price increases may not only be permanent, but that prices may continue to increase into the future before settling down at a much higher level than today. At high enough fuel prices, the aircraft industry would become very sensitive to fuel price. In this paper, the likelihood of fuel price increase is considered in three different price increase scenarios: "low," "medium," and "high." The impact of these scenarios on the aviation industry and alternatives are also addressed.

Hendricks, Robert C.↗

NASA NTRS2007

The Coronal-Dimming Footprint of a Streamer-Puff Coronal Mass Ejection: Confirmation of the Magnetic-Arch-Blowout Scenario

A streamer puff is a recently identified variety of coronal mass ejection (CME) of narrow to moderate width. It (1) travels our along a streamer, transiently inflating the streamer but leaving it largely intact, and (2) occurs in step with a compact ejective flare in an outer flank of the base of the streamer. These aspects suggest the following magnetic-arch-blowout scenario for the production of these CMEs: the magnetic explosion that produces the flare also produces a plasmoid that explodes up the leg of an outer loop of the arcade base of the streamer, blows out the top of this loop, and becomes the core of the CME. In this paper, we present a streamer-puff CME that produced a coronal-dimming footprint. The coronal dimming, its magnetic setting, and the timing and magnetic setting of a strong compact ejective flare within the dimming footprint nicely confirm the magnetic-arch-blowout scenario. From these observations, together with several published cases of a trans-equatorial CME produced in tandem with an ejective flare or filament eruption that was far offset from directly under the CME, we propose the following. Streamer-puff CMEs are a subclass (one variety) of a broader class of "over-and-out" CMEs that are often much larger than streamer puffs but are similar to them in that they are produced by the blowout of a large quasi-potential magnetic arch by a magnetic explosion that erupts from one foot of the large arch, where it is marked by a filament eruption and/or an ejective flare.

Moore, Ronald L.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Lunar Outpost Life Support Architecture Study Based on a High-Mobility Exploration Scenario

This paper presents results of a life support architecture study based on a 2009 NASA lunar surface exploration scenario known as Scenario 12. The study focuses on the assembly complete outpost configuration and includes pressurized rovers as part of a distributed outpost architecture in both stand-alone and integrated configurations. A range of life support architectures are examined reflecting different levels of closure and distributed functionality. Monte Carlo simulations are used to assess the sensitivity of results to volatile high-impact mission variables, including the quantity of residual Lander oxygen and hydrogen propellants available for scavenging, the fraction of crew time away from the outpost on excursions, total extravehicular activity hours, and habitat leakage. Surpluses or deficits of water and oxygen are reported for each architecture, along with fixed and 10-year total equivalent system mass estimates relative to a reference case. System robustness is discussed in terms of the probability of no water or oxygen resupply as determined from the Monte Carlo simulations.

Lange, Kevin E.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Automata learning algorithms and processes for providing more complete systems requirements specification by scenario generation, CSP-based syntax-oriented model construction, and R2D2C system requirements transformation

Systems, methods and apparatus are provided through which in some embodiments, automata learning algorithms and techniques are implemented to generate a more complete set of scenarios for requirements based programming. More specifically, a CSP-based, syntax-oriented model construction, which requires the support of a theorem prover, is complemented by model extrapolation, via automata learning. This may support the systematic completion of the requirements, the nature of the requirement being partial, which provides focus on the most prominent scenarios. This may generalize requirement skeletons by extrapolation and may indicate by way of automatically generated traces where the requirement specification is too loose and additional information is required.

Hinchey, Michael G.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Comparison of Sigma-Point and Extended Kalman Filters on a Realistic Orbit Determination Scenario

Sigma-point filters have received a lot of attention in recent years as a better alternative to extended Kalman filters for highly nonlinear problems. In this paper, we compare the performance of the additive divided difference sigma-point filter to the extended Kalman filter when applied to orbit determination of a realistic operational scenario based on the Interstellar Boundary Explorer mission. For the scenario studied, both filters provided equivalent results. The performance of each is discussed in detail.

Gaebler, John↗

NASA NTRS2001

Hybrid Modeling for Scenario-Based Evaluation of Failure Effects in Advanced Hardware-Software Designs

This paper describes an incremental scenario-based simulation approach to evaluation of intelligent software for control and management of hardware systems. A hybrid continuous/discrete event simulation of the hardware dynamically interacts with the intelligent software in operations scenarios. Embedded anomalous conditions and failures in simulated hardware can lead to emergent software behavior and identification of missing or faulty software or hardware requirements. An approach is described for extending simulation-based automated incremental failure modes and effects analysis, to support concurrent evaluation of intelligent software and the hardware controlled by the software

Malin, Jane T.↗

NASA NTRS2003

A Dynamic Risk Model for Evaluation of Space Shuttle Abort Scenarios

The Space Shuttle is an advanced manned launch system with a respectable history of service and a demonstrated level of safety. Recent studies have shown that the Space Shuttle has a relatively low probability of having a failure that is instantaneously catastrophic during nominal flight as compared with many US and international launch systems. However, since the Space Shuttle is a manned. system, a number of mission abort contingencies exist to primarily ensure the safety of the crew during off-nominal situations and to attempt to maintain the integrity of the Orbiter. As the Space Shuttle ascends to orbit it transverses various intact abort regions evaluated and planned before the flight to ensure that the Space Shuttle Orbiter, along with its crew, may be returned intact either to the original launch site, a transoceanic landing site, or returned from a substandard orbit. An intact abort may be initiated due to a number of system failures but the highest likelihood and most challenging abort scenarios are initiated by a premature shutdown of a Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME). The potential consequences of such a shutdown vary as a function of a number of mission parameters but all of them may be related to mission time for a specific mission profile. This paper focuses on the Dynamic Abort Risk Evaluation (DARE) model process, applications, and its capability to evaluate the risk of Loss Of Vehicle (LOV) due to the complex systems interactions that occur during Space Shuttle intact abort scenarios. In addition, the paper will examine which of the Space Shuttle subsystems are critical to ensuring a successful return of the Space Shuttle Orbiter and crew from such a situation.

Henderson, Edward M.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Future Fuel Scenarios and Their Potential Impact to Aviation

Hendricks, Robert C.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Using Game Theoretic Models to Predict Pilot Behavior in NextGen Merging and Landing Scenario

In this paper, we present an implementation of the Semi Network-Form Game framework to predict pilot behavior in a merging and landing scenario. In this scenario, two aircraft are approaching to a freeze horizon with approximately equal distance when they become aware of each other via an ADS-B communication link that will be available in NextGen airspace. Both pilots want to gain advantage over the other by entering the freeze horizon earlier and obtain the first place in landing. They re-adjust their speed accordingly. However, they cannot simply increase their speed to the maximum allowable values since they are concerned with safety, separation distance, effort, possibility of being vectored-off from landing and possibility of violating speed constraints. We present how to model these concerns and the rest of the system using semi network-from game framework. Using this framework, based on certain assumptions on pilot utility functions and on system configuration, we provide estimates of pilot behavior and overall system evolution in time. We also discuss the possible employment of this modeling tool for airspace design optimization. To support this discussion, we provide a case where we investigate the effect of increasing the merging point speed limit on the commanded speed distribution and on the percentage of vectored aircraft.

Yildiz, Yildiray↗

NASA NTRS2013

It's the Heat AND the Humidity -- Assessment of Extreme Heat Scenarios to Enable the Assessment of Climate Impacts on Public Health

In the United States, extreme heat is the most deadly weather-related hazard. In the face of a warming climate and urbanization, which contributes to local-scale urban heat islands, it is very likely that extreme heat events (EHEs) will become more common and more severe in the U.S. In a NASA-funded project supporting the National Climate Assessment, we are providing historical and future measures of extreme heat to enable assessments of the impacts of heat on public health over the coterminous U.S. We use atmospheric temperature and humidity information from meteorological reanalysis and from Global Climate Models (GCMs) to provide data on past and future heat events. The project s emphasis is on providing assessments of the magnitude, frequency and geographic distribution of extreme heat in the U.S. to facilitate public health studies. In our approach, long-term climate change is captured with GCM output, and the temporal and spatial characteristics of short-term extremes are represented by the reanalysis data. Two future time horizons, 2040 and 2090, are the focus of future assessments; these are compared to the recent past period of 1981-2000. We are characterizing regional-scale temperature and humidity conditions using GCM output for two climate change scenarios (A2 and A1B) defined in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). For each future period, 20 years of multi-model GCM output have been analyzed to develop a heat stress climatology based on statistics of extreme heat indicators. Differences between the two future and past periods have been used to define temperature and humidity changes on a monthly time scale and regional spatial scale. These changes, combined with hourly historical meteorological data at a spatial scale (12 km) much finer than that of GCMs, enable us to create future climate realizations, from which we compute the daily heat stress measures and related spatially-specific climatological fields. These include the mean annual number of days above certain thresholds of maximum and minimum air temperatures, heat indices and a new heat stress variable that gives an integrated measure of heat stress (and relief) over the course of a day. Comparisons are made between projected (2040 and 2090) and past (1990) heat stress statistics. All output is being provided at the 12 km spatial scale and will also be aggregated to the county level, which is a popular scale of analysis for public health researchers. County-level statistics will be made available by our collaborators at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) via the Wide-ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research (WONDER) system. CDC WONDER makes the information resources of the CDC available to public health professionals and the general public. This addition of heat stress measures to CDC WONDER will allow decision and policy makers to assess the impact of alternative approaches to optimize the public health response to EHEs. It will also allow public health researchers and policy makers to better include such heat stress measures in the context of national health data available in the CDC WONDER system. The users will be able to spatially and temporally query public health and heat-related data sets and create county-level maps and statistical charts of such data across the coterminous U.S.

Crosson, William L↗

NASA NTRS2013

Future Extreme Heat Scenarios to Enable the Assessment of Climate Impacts on Public Health over the Coterminous U.S.

In the United States, extreme heat is the most deadly weather-related hazard. In the face of a warming climate and urbanization, which contributes to local-scale urban heat islands, it is very likely that extreme heat events (EHEs) will become more common and more severe in the U.S. This research seeks to provide historical and future measures of climate-driven extreme heat events to enable assessments of the impacts of heat on public health over the coterminous U.S. We use atmospheric temperature and humidity information from meteorological reanalysis and from Global Climate Models (GCMs) to provide data on past and future heat events. The focus of research is on providing assessments of the magnitude, frequency and geographic distribution of extreme heat in the U.S. to facilitate public health studies. In our approach, long-term climate change is captured with GCM outputs, and the temporal and spatial characteristics of short-term extremes are represented by the reanalysis data. Two future time horizons for 2040 and 2090 are compared to the recent past period of 1981- 2000. We characterize regional-scale temperature and humidity conditions using GCM outputs for two climate change scenarios (A2 and A1B) defined in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). For each future period, 20 years of multi-model GCM outputs are analyzed to develop a 'heat stress climatology' based on statistics of extreme heat indicators. Differences between the two future and the past period are used to define temperature and humidity changes on a monthly time scale and regional spatial scale. These changes are combined with the historical meteorological data, which is hourly and at a spatial scale (12 km), to create future climate realizations. From these realizations, we compute the daily heat stress measures and related spatially-specific climatological fields, such as the mean annual number of days above certain thresholds of maximum and minimum air temperatures, heat indices and a new heat stress variable developed as part of this research that gives an integrated measure of heat stress (and relief) over the course of a day. Comparisons are made between projected (2040 and 2090) and past (1990) heat stress statistics. Outputs are aggregated to the county level, which is a popular scale of analysis for public health interests. County-level statistics are made available to public health researchers by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) via the Wideranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research (WONDER) system. This addition of heat stress measures to CDC WONDER allows decision and policy makers to assess the impact of alternative approaches to optimize the public health response to EHEs. Through CDC WONDER, users are able to spatially and temporally query public health and heat-related data sets and create county-level maps and statistical charts of such data across the coterminous U.S

Quattrochi, Dale A.↗

NASA NTRS2008

A Scenario-Based Process for Requirements Development: Application to Mission Operations Systems

The notion of using operational scenarios as part of requirements development during mission formulation (Phases A & B) is widely accepted as good system engineering practice. In the context of developing a Mission Operations System (MOS), there are numerous practical challenges to translating that notion into the cost-effective development of a useful set of requirements. These challenges can include such issues as a lack of Project-level focus on operations issues, insufficient or improper flowdown of requirements, flowdown of immature or poor-quality requirements from Project level, and MOS resource constraints (personnel expertise and/or dollars). System engineering theory must be translated into a practice that provides enough structure and standards to serve as guidance, but that retains sufficient flexibility to be tailored to the needs and constraints of a particular MOS or Project. We describe a detailed, scenario-based process for requirements development. Identifying a set of attributes for high quality requirements, we show how the portions of the process address many of those attributes. We also find that the basic process steps are robust, and can be effective even in challenging Project environments.

MOS↗

NASA NTRS2016

Large Gain in Air Quality Compared to an Alternative Anthropogenic Emissions Scenario

During the last 30 years, significant effort has been made to improve air quality through legislation for emissions reduction. Global three-dimensional chemistrytransport simulations of atmospheric composition over the past 3 decades have been performed to estimate what the air quality levels would have been under a scenario of stagnation of anthropogenic emissions per capita as in 1980, accounting for the population increase (BA1980) or using the standard practice of neglecting it (AE1980), and how they compare to the historical changes in air quality levels. The simulations are based on assimilated meteorology to account for the yearto- year observed climate variability and on different scenarios of anthropogenic emissions of pollutants. The ACCMIP historical emissions dataset is used as the starting point. Our sensitivity simulations provide clear indications that air quality legislation and technology developments have limited the rapid increase of air pollutants. The achieved reductions in concentrations of nitrogen oxides, carbon monoxide, black carbon, and sulfate aerosols are found to be significant when comparing to both BA1980 and AE1980 simulations that neglect any measures applied for the protection of the environment. We also show the potentially large tropospheric air quality benefit from the development of cleaner technology used by the growing global population. These 30-year hindcast sensitivity simulations demonstrate that the actual benefit in air quality due to air pollution legislation and technological advances is higher than the gain calculated by a simple comparison against a constant anthropogenic emissions simulation, as is usually done. Our results also indicate that over China and India the beneficial technological advances for the air quality may have been masked by the explosive increase in local population and the disproportional increase in energy demand partially due to the globalization of the economy.

Law (Jurisprudence)↗

NASA NTRS2017

A Water Rich Mars Surface Mission Scenario

In an on-going effort to make human Mars missions more affordable and sustainable, NASA continues to investigate the innovative leveraging of technological advances in conjunction with the use of accessible Martian resources directly applicable to these missions. One of the resources with the broadest utility for human missions is water. Many past studies of human Mars missions assumed a complete lack of water derivable from local sources. However, recent advances in our understanding of the Martian environment provides growing evidence that Mars may be more "water rich" than previously suspected. This is based on data indicating that substantial quantities of water are mixed with surface regolith, bound in minerals located at or near the surface, and buried in large glacier-like forms. This paper describes an assessment of what could be done in a "water rich" human Mars mission scenario. A description of what is meant by "water rich" in this context is provided, including a quantification of the water that would be used by crews in this scenario. The different types of potential feedstock that could be used to generate these quantities of water are described, drawing on the most recently available assessments of data being returned from Mars. This paper specifically focuses on sources that appear to be buried quantities of water ice. (An assessment of other potential feedstock materials is documented in another paper.) Technologies and processes currently used in terrestrial polar regions is reviewed. One process with a long history of use on Earth and with potential application on Mars - the Rodriguez Well - is described and results of an analysis simulating the performance of such a well on Mars are presented. These results indicate that a Rodriguez Well capable of producing the quantities of water identified for a "water rich" human mission are within the capabilities assumed to be available on the Martian surface, as envisioned in other comparable Evolvable Mars Campaign assessments. The paper concludes by capturing additional findings and describing additional simulations and tests that should be conducted to better characterize the performance of the identified terrestrial technologies for accessing subsurface ice, as well as the Rodriguez Well, under Mars environmental conditions.

Hoffman, Stephen J.↗

NASA NTRS2017

A Water Rich Mars Surface Mission Scenario

The surface of Mars once had abundant water flowing on its surface, but now there is a general perception that this surface is completely dry. Several lines of research have shown that there are sources of potentially large quantities of water at many locations on the surface, including regions considered as candidates for future human missions. Traditionally, system designs for these human missions are constrained to tightly recycle water and oxygen, and current resource utilization strategies involve ascent vehicle oxidizer production only. But the assumption of relatively abundant extant water may change this. Several scenarios were constructed to evaluate water requirements for human Mars expeditions to assess the impact to system design if locally produced water is available. Specifically, we have assessed water resources needed for 1) ascent vehicle oxidizer and fuel production, 2) open-loop water and oxygen life support requirements along with more robust usage scenarios, and 3) crew radiation protection augmentation. In this assessment, production techniques and the associated chemistry to transform Martian water and atmosphere into these useful commodities are identified, but production mass and power requirements are left to future analyses. The figure below illustrates the type of water need assessment performed and that will be discussed. There have been several sources of feedstock material discussed in recent literature that could be used to produce these quantities of water. This paper will focus on Mars surface features that resemble glacier-like forms on Earth. Several lines of evidence indicate that some of these features are in fact buried ice, likely remnants from an earlier ice age on Mars. This paper examines techniques and hardware systems used in the polar regions of Earth to access this buried ice and withdraw water from it. These techniques and systems will be described to illustrate options available. A technique known as a Rodriguez Well is assessed as a likely method for extracting water from these bodies of ice. The figure below is a sample of results from this assessment that will be discussed.

Hoffman, Stephen↗