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DOE OSTI2025

Systems Analysis of Biomass and Coal Co-firing Power Plants with Deep Carbon Capture Toward Net-zero Emissions

Achieving a net-zero emission economy in the United States requires integrating diverse low-carbon and negative-emission technologies into the existing fossil fuel-dominant power fleet. Potential technologies from the low-carbon portfolio include renewable power, fossil power with carbon capture and storage (CCS), bioenergy with CCS (BECCS), and direct air capture (DAC). Renewable power is a clean energy source but has to pair with costly battery storage to provide dispatchable electricity. Fossil power with CCS offers dispatchable electricity yet still relies on DAC to offset residual emissions, even when deploying deep CCS with more than 90% CO2 capture. Coal-biomass co-firing with CCS, a subset of BECCS, is a reliable energy production technology that can be retrofitted from existing electricity generation units (EGUs). Power plant retrofit maximizes the use of the current U.S. coal power fleet without the need for large-scale deployment of new renewable power, battery storage, or DAC. Retrofitting coal-biomass co-firing with deep CCS in EGUs is a promising option, but not a universal solution. Biomass co-firing at a power plant introduces economic challenges and indirectly poses pressure on land and water resources. Meanwhile, retrofitting deep CCS affects plant efficiency and raises electricity generation costs. Overall, the technical feasibility and economic viability of plant retrofits vary across EGUs, as they are contingent upon the regional availability of biomass, unit-specific characteristics, site-specific fuel supply costs, and adjacent CO2 storage potential. Government incentives like 45Q can improve the retrofit viability, though the impact requires further quantification. A comprehensive analysis at the unit level is essential to address the question regarding the fate of the U.S. coal-fired electricity generation fleet toward the net-zero emission goal. This study conducts a systematic techno-economic-environmental assessment of EGUs to identify the viability of biomass co-firing and deep CCS retrofits in the U.S. coal-fired power fleet. Specifically, it characterizes the techno-economic performance of deep carbon capture, estimates life cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and conducts a fleet-level assessment on retrofit viability. The key objectives are (1) to estimate the unit-specific performance and retrofitted cost under various biomass co-firing levels and CO2 capture rates; (2) to determine the possibility of reaching net-zero emission at the fleet level; (3) to quantify the cumulative capacities that are suitable for plant retrofits under current and future biomass supply scenarios; and (4) to improve the understanding of policy impacts on such retrofits to help the power sector’s transition to a net-zero economy. Techno-economic Model of Deep Carbon Capture. This study develops the performance and economic models for Monoethanolamine-based post-combustion CO2 capture at 95–99% capture rates. The process is simulated in Aspen Plus, analyzing the performance of carbon capture technology by varying the plant sizes, solvent lean loading, CO2 concentrations, and flue gas inlet temperature. Based on the key inputs and output parameters of CO2 capture, a reduced-order performance model of deep carbon capture is formulated. In addition, an engineering-economic model integrating the performance metrics is developed to estimate the capital as well as operation and maintenance (O&M) costs. Capital cost estimations follow the framework of the Integrated Environmental Control Model (IECM) and incorporate data regressions from three technical reports by IECM, the National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL), and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory. The O&M cost estimation utilizes the actual inventory consumption rate and labor requirements. Both performance and cost models are embedded into IECM v13.0-beta, a fossil-fuel power plant modeling tool. Life Cycle Assessment of Power Plants. This study estimates the GHG emissions of power plants through life cycle assessment (LCA). The LCA scope includes fuel supply, combustion-based power generation, and CO2 transport and storage. The fuel-based life cycle module is designed following the framework of the NETL Unit Process Library and CO2U LCA Guidance Toolkit. The module is then incorporated into IECM v13.0-beta. The process-based LCA is applied to estimate the GHG emissions of coal and biomass supply, coal- and coal-biomass co-firing power plant operation, as well as CO2 pipeline transport and geographical sequestration. An uncertainty analysis is conducted to quantify the variability and uncertainty associated with the LCA using the Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) method. Fleet-level Assessment. This study evaluates the technical and economic feasibility of selected coal-fired EGUs, examines the role of tax credits in retrofit viability, and assesses the competitiveness of retrofitted units against other low-carbon options. Unit screening identifies EGUs for the study, focusing on new, efficient baseload units with air pollution controls. The power plant databases are then established to organize unit-specific information on performance and operating conditions from the relevant public databases. Biomass for co-firing retrofits is selected based on home and neighboring county availability, ensuring sustained operation with at least a 5% co-firing level. The CO2 storage site is determined by state-level storage potential, with ArcGIS Pro and NETL CO2 Saline Storage Cost Model used to identify the optimal balance between the nearest transport distances and affordable storage costs. The latest IECM v13.0-beta is then employed to configure and evaluate the eligible EGUs with or without the deployment of deep CCS and biomass co-firing. A supply curve is established to illustrate the cumulative installed capacity suitable for retrofits at different cost levels. A sensitivity analysis on tax credits for carbon sequestration is performed. Finally, a unit-level cost comparison is conducted among retrofitted plants, renewable power with battery storage, and abated fossil fuels with DAC. Expected Results. This study evaluates the technical, economic, and environmental metrics of each EGU across an array of CO2 capture rates and biomass co-firing level scenarios. Unit-level comparisons will identify critical factors influencing technical performance. The supply curves with and without tax incentives will provide insights into the impact of tax credits on biomass co-firing and CCS deployment. The cost comparisons with renewables and DAC-retrofit will assess the competitiveness of the retrofitted units. Life cycle emissions from each unit will be assessed to identify the scenarios under which net-zero emissions can be achieved. These analyses are expected to determine the total coal-fired capacity suitable for serving as a low-carbon energy source with or without tax incentives. The study results are novel in identifying optimal unit-specific strategies for producing carbon-neutral power, whether through retrofitting EGUs with deep CCS, biomass co-firing, DAC, or installing renewable power with battery. The findings will provide insight into nationwide efforts to ensure reliable, affordable, and low-carbon electricity. It also will inform investment decisions and policies in the deployment of deep carbon capture and negative emission technologies for a net-zero energy future.

Biomass Co-firing↗

DOE OSTI2024

Grid connection barriers to renewable energy deployment in the United States

Bulk-power grid connection is an emerging bottleneck to the entry of wind, solar, and storage but has been understudied due to a lack of data. We create and analyze two novel interconnection datasets with more than 38,000 project-level observations that provide new information documenting interconnection challenges in the United States. Active grid connection requests are more than double the total installed capacity of the US power plant fleet (2,600 vs. 1,280 GW). The time required to secure a connection has increased by 70% over the last decade, and withdrawal rates remain high at 80%, suggesting a constrained transmission system that jeopardizes energy transition targets. Wide distributions of interconnection costs indicate the inherent uncertainty of the interconnection process. Interconnection requests that identify large transmission upgrades tend to withdraw from the process. These findings suggest the need for interconnection reforms, tighter links between long-term transmission planning and project-level interconnection processes, and more interconnection outcome transparency.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2021

The Initial–Final Mass Relation for Hydrogen-deficient White Dwarfs

The initial–final mass relation represents the total mass lost by a star during the entirety of its evolution from the zero age main sequence to the white-dwarf cooling track. The semiempirical initial–final mass relation (IFMR) is largely based on observations of DA white dwarfs, the most common spectral type of white dwarf and the simplest atmosphere to model. We present a first derivation of the semiempirical IFMR for hydrogen-deficient (non-DA) white dwarfs in open star clusters. We identify a possible discrepancy between the DA and non-DA IFMRs, with non-DA white dwarfs ≈0.07 M {sub ⊙} less massive at a given initial mass. Such a discrepancy is unexpected based on theoretical models of non-DA formation and observations of field white dwarf mass distributions. If real, the discrepancy is likely due to enhanced mass loss during the final thermal pulse and renewed post-AGB evolution of the star. However, we are dubious that the mass discrepancy is physical and instead is due to the small sample size, to systematic issues in model atmospheres of non-DAs, and to the uncertain evolutionary history of Procyon B (spectral type DQZ). A significantly larger sample size is needed to test these assertions. In addition, we also present Monte Carlo models of the correlated errors for DA and non-DA white dwarfs in the initial–final mass plane. We find the uncertainties in initial–final mass determinations for individual white dwarfs can be significantly asymmetric, but the recovered functional form of the IFMR is grossly unaffected by the correlated errors.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Robust trajectory-constrained frequency control for microgrids considering model linearization error

Grid supportive modes integrated within inverter-based resources can improve the frequency response of renewable-rich microgrids. The synthesis of grid supportive modes to guarantee frequency trajectory constraints under a predefined disturbance set is challenging but essential. To tackle this challenge, a numerical optimal control (NOC)-based control synthesis methodology is proposed. Without loss of generality, a wind-diesel fed microgrid is studied, where we aim to design grid supportive functions in the wind turbine. In the control design, linearized models are used, and the linearization-induced errors are quantitatively analyzed by reachability and interval arithmetics and represented in the form of interval uncertainties. Then, the NOC problem can be formulated into a robust mixed-integer linear program. The control structure is strategically configured into two levels to realize online deployment. The proposed control is verified on the modified 33-node microgrid with a full-order three-phase nonlinear model in Simulink. In conclusion, the simulation results show the effectiveness of the proposed control paradigm and the necessity of considering linearization-induced uncertainty.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2022

Opportunities for Renewable Energy, Storage, Vehicle Electrification, and Demand Response in Rajasthan's Power Sector

To support the government of Rajasthan and inform state policy makers, regulators, planners, and system operators on power system trends, NREL undertook a long-term capacity expansion planning study. We used NREL's flagship capacity expansion planning tool for the power sector called the Regional Energy Deployment System India (ReEDS-India) to understand the generation and transmission needs of Rajasthan through 2050. NREL's modeling framework includes co-optimized decisions about generation, energy storage, transmission, and reserves investments needed to meet future demand while maintaining reliable electricity supply. Scenario analysis was conducted to assess a range of potential future scenarios, providing insight for planning agencies, utilities, and local stakeholders about key trends and sources of uncertainty.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Electric Vehicles Charging Time Constrained Deliverable Provision of Secondary Frequency Regulation

Aggregation of electric vehicles (EVs) is a promising technique for providing secondary frequency regulation (SFR) in highly renewable energy-penetrated power systems. Equipped with energy storage devices, EV aggregation can provide reliable SFR. However, the main challenge is to guarantee reliable intra-interval SFR capacities and inter-interval delivery following the automatic generation control (AGC) signal. Furthermore, aggregated EV SFR provision will be further complicated by the EV charging time anxiety because SFR provision might extend EV's charging time. This paper proposes a deliverable EV SFR provision with a charging-time-constrained control strategy. First, a charging-time-constrained EV aggregation is proposed to address the uncertainty of EV capacity based on the state-space model considering the charging-time restriction of EV owners. Second, a real-time economic dispatch and time domain simulation (RTED-TDS) cosimulation framework is proposed to verify financial results and the dynamic performance of the EV SFR provision. Last, the proposed charging time-constrained EV aggregation is validated on the IEEE 39-bus system. In conclusion, the results demonstrate that with charging time-constrained EV aggregation, the dynamic performance of the system can be improved with a marginal increase in total cost. More importantly, the charging time constraint can be respected in the proposed SFR provision of the EV aggregation.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2020

Hydropower Geotechnical Foundations: Current Practice and Innovation Opportunities for Low-Head Applications

Hydropower is a renewable energy resource that produces electricity from flowing water under pressure. Engineered hydropower structures, such as dams, are used to create a hydraulic head, enabling a turbinegenerator unit to convert pressurized flow into electricity. While hydropower has been a source of renewable energy since antiquity, new development in the United States has slowed in recent decades. Based on recent resource assessments, the largest opportunity to expand hydropower in the United States is from new stream-reach development (i.e., new hydropower development along stream-reaches that do not currently have hydroelectric facilities or other forms of infrastructure, such as dams). Roughly 75% of identified new stream-reach development potential is from low-head sites (less than 30 ft of head), which typically suffer from smaller power densities and higher normalized costs, given economies of scale. Hydropower developers and other stakeholders are thus interested in strategies to reduce initial capital costs while practicing sustainable development to maximize environmental compatibility with minimal disruption to natural aquatic life, sediment, and water flows. Historically, civil works have represented a significant cost driver for new hydropower development, with the foundation system representing a major cost component and source of uncertainty. The foundation system is the collection of engineered structural features (e.g. cutoff trenches, walls, grouting, anchors) constructed at or below the preconstruction ground surface that interfaces between the overlying structures (superstructures) and the bed material below (subsurface). Development of a hydropower foundation system must consider the various characteristics of the surrounding stream environment and subsurface while adhering to the engineering requirements of the superstructure that it supports. The care of water, excavation, and other construction activities are important features of foundation design and construction. The design and construction cost of the foundation system is largely dependent on the site geology and riverbed composition and is influenced by the level of geotechnical assessment required and conducted. Thus, a hydropower facility’s geotechnical foundation is often highly site-specific, with proper site selection and assessment being important to project success. The foundation system is designed to provide structural stability (of the foundation and dam), limit seepage, ensure public safety, and maintain functionality for the project life, during both construction and facility operations. Inadequate foundation or dam design can result in dam failure and the uncontrolled release of significant volumes of water, which could cause a high number of casualties and extensive property damage downstream of the failure. According to the Association of State Dam Safety Officials, approximately 30% of all historical dam failures in the United States are attributed to foundation or abutment defects, and another 20% are attributed to piping or seepage through the embankment, foundation, or abutment. To ameliorate these safety considerations, foundations often require massive amounts of construction material (e.g., grout, concrete, engineered dam fill) and long construction times. Foundation design also requires significant analysis prior to construction because the initial in-stream and abutment subsurface conditions are site-specific, and sufficient data for them often are lacking. Current practice requires on-site assessment, using expensive drilling and invasive and non-invasive investigation methods, to determine the expected cost of foundation material and treatment. Additionally, foundation construction often requires site dewatering (and other care of water activities), which involves constructing temporary diversion structures upstream and often downstream, called cofferdams, and water diversion systems that route water around the construction site. Cofferdams and water diversion systems can drastically increase construction costs and contribute to environmental disruption, including modification of flow patterns and benthic habitats. Given the technical, economic, and environmental challenges associated with hydropower foundations, opportunities exist to improve the current state of practice and to develop new and innovative solutions to Hydropower is a renewable energy resource that produces electricity from flowing water under pressure. Engineered hydropower structures, such as dams, are used to create a hydraulic head, enabling a turbinegenerator unit to convert pressurized flow into electricity. While hydropower has been a source of renewable energy since antiquity, new development in the United States has slowed in recent decades. Based on recent resource assessments, the largest opportunity to expand hydropower in the United States is from new stream-reach development (i.e., new hydropower development along stream-reaches that do not currently have hydroelectric facilities or other forms of infrastructure, such as dams). Roughly 75% of identified new stream-reach development potential is from low-head sites (less than 30 ft of head), which typically suffer from smaller power densities and higher normalized costs, given economies of scale. Hydropower developers and other stakeholders are thus interested in strategies to reduce initial capital costs while practicing sustainable development to maximize environmental compatibility with minimal disruption to natural aquatic life, sediment, and water flows. Historically, civil works have represented a significant cost driver for new hydropower development, with the foundation system representing a major cost component and source of uncertainty. The foundation system is the collection of engineered structural features (e.g. cutoff trenches, walls, grouting, anchors) constructed at or below the preconstruction ground surface that interfaces between the overlying structures (superstructures) and the bed material below (subsurface). Development of a hydropower foundation system must consider the various characteristics of the surrounding stream environment and subsurface while adhering to the engineering requirements of the superstructure that it supports. The care of water, excavation, and other construction activities are important features of foundation design and construction. The design and construction cost of the foundation system is largely dependent on the site geology and riverbed composition and is influenced by the level of geotechnical assessment required and conducted. Thus, a hydropower facility’s geotechnical foundation is often highly site-specific, with proper site selection and assessment being important to project success. The foundation system is designed to provide structural stability (of the foundation and dam), limit seepage, ensure public safety, and maintain functionality for the project life, during both construction and facility operations. Inadequate foundation or dam design can result in dam failure and the uncontrolled release of significant volumes of water, which could cause a high number of casualties and extensive property damage downstream of the failure. According to the Association of State Dam Safety Officials, approximately 30% of all historical dam failures in the United States are attributed to foundation or abutment defects, and another 20% are attributed to piping or seepage through the embankment, foundation, or abutment. To ameliorate these safety considerations, foundations often require massive amounts of construction material (e.g., grout, concrete, engineered dam fill) and long construction times. Foundation design also requires significant analysis prior to construction because the initial in-stream and abutment subsurface conditions are site-specific, and sufficient data for them often are lacking. Current practice requires on-site assessment, using expensive drilling and invasive and non-invasive investigation methods, to determine the expected cost of foundation material and treatment. Additionally, foundation construction often requires site dewatering (and other care of water activities), which involves constructing temporary diversion structures upstream and often downstream, called cofferdams, and water diversion systems that route water around the construction site. Cofferdams and water diversion systems can drastically increase construction costs and contribute to environmental disruption, including modification of flow patterns and benthic habitats. Given the technical, economic, and environmental challenges associated with hydropower foundations, opportunities exist to improve the current state of practice and to develop new and innovative solutions to challenges frequently encountered with traditional approaches. With this understanding, it is critically important to understand and document the current state of practice for hydropower geotechnical foundations, identify key challenges, and define opportunities for innovative solutions. To this end, this report documents the current state of practice across the three main phases of geotechnical foundation development: (1) geotechnical site assessment, (2) design, and (3) construction for hydropower systems. It also describes the major challenges with conventional approaches and identifies opportunities for innovation to reduce hydropower foundations costs, timelines, and risks. Key takeaways from this report include the following: Approximately 80% of available low-head sites are expected to have foundations on soil beds rather than rock beds, suggesting that rockfill and earthfill dams may be the most cost-effective conventional dam type for new projects.; Geotechnical and geologic investigation activities are time-consuming and expensive but are essential to define the parameters and criteria needed for foundation design.; Certain riverbed soil and bedrock types present significant technical challenges or require expensive foundation construction, which can prove financially prohibitive for low-head project development.; Modular hydropower design and prefabricated modular foundations represent a promising but unproven paradigm for new hydropower development. Design and construction approaches using optimized and highly repeatable, reliable components would benefit project cost, time, and risk but require additional research and development.; Temporary construction features for foundations, including cofferdams, water diversion, and water control systems, can prove costly and have inherent construction risk.; For economically viable development, hydropower geotechnical foundations should be limited to 4 to 15% of the project’s total initial capital costs. Many proposed projects have experienced cost overruns attributable to foundation difficulties or surprises during construction. These overruns may have been due to inadequate investigations, lack of adequate engineering effort to tailor the structures to site geology and topography, and/or contractual terms, among other considerations.; Challenges for hydropower foundations and opportunities for innovative technology solutions are identified in the following areas (consistent with the three main phases of foundation development): Geotechnical site assessment, Foundation design and materials, Construction methods and technology. Ultimately, this report aims to provide information about geotechnical foundations for low-head hydropower and to motivate transformative technologies to support hydropower growth.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Characterizing the Potential for Sustainable Azelaic Acid Production from High-Oleic Vegetable Oil Using Two-Step Oxidative Cleavage

Azelaic acid is a renewable monomer conventionally produced via the energy-intensive ozonolysis of oleic acid. Recent advancements have enabled the use of high-oleic vegetable oils (rather than tallow-derived oleic acid) and replaced ozonolysis with two-step oxidative cleavage using hydrogen and oxygen. Although this shift would improve process safety, the financial viability and environmental implications remain uncertain. In this study, we characterized the sustainability of azelaic acid production from high-oleic vegetable oil using two-step oxidative cleavage. Process design, simulation, technoeconomic analysis (TEA), and life cycle assessment (LCA) were executed under uncertainty using BioSTEAM. The modeled system produces azelaic acid at a market-competitive minimum selling price (MSP) of 8.32 [4.93−13.34] $\$kg$ −1 (median 5th−95th percentiles), below the minimum estimated market price of 9.93 $\$kg$ −1 . Further, it has the potential to approach carbon neutrality (0.0 [−5.5 to 5.6] kg of CO 2 -eq kg −1 ) under displacement allocation. Improvements to dihydroxylation (86 to 99%) and oxidative cleavage conversions (93 to 99%) would reduce MSP to $\$5.24$ kg −1 and carbon intensity to −1.90 kg of CO 2 -eq kg −1 (displacement). Additionally, increasing the feedstock triolein content (75 to 85%) lowers MSP by $\$0.82$ kg −1 . Overall, this research demonstrates the potential for financially viable production of azelaic acid from vegetable oils and the utility of agile TEA/LCA.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2022

Developing a heavy-duty vehicle activity database to estimate start and idle emissions

Heavy-duty vehicle start and idling activities were characterized from two datasets to improve emission estimates in the MOtor Vehicle Emission Simulator (MOVES): 1. Fleet DNA from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and 2. A dataset collected by the University of California, Riverside for the California Air Resources Board. Furthermore, the combined dataset includes 564 commercial vehicles, over 23,000 vehicle days of operation and covers seven of the nine heavy-duty source types defined by MOVES. The start and idle activities are characterized and illustrated across MOVES source types, vocations, fleets, days, and hours. This study provides the most comprehensive analysis yet made publicly available to characterize start and idle activity for heavy-duty vehicles within the United States. The results also show there is significant uncertainty in the average heavy-duty idle and start activity due to the large variation in activity across fleets and vocations, and sparsity of nation-wide vehicle population data by vocation.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Environmental DNA as a tool for hydropower impact assessments: current status, special considerations, and future integration

Globally there is an urgent need to find sustainable solutions to balance energy production with the protection of vulnerable species and conservation of biodiversity. This is particularly critical for freshwater ecosystems, habitats, and species that may be impacted by hydropower development and operations needed to meet energy grid demands. Reliable and accurate environmental impact assessments (EIAs) that identify the biological, physical, or social impacts of hydropower are key to ensure biodiversity, ecosystem, and societal sustainability. The analysis of environmental DNA (eDNA) has the potential to transform hydropower EIAs, management and mitigation planning, and decision-making procedures. Further, the incorporation of eDNA surveys into EIAs during both hydropower planning and continued operations may streamline regulatory processes by improving our understanding of potentially impacted biota and habitats and evaluating environmental impacts mitigation. Here, we: (i) highlight current understanding and use of eDNA in freshwater environments; (ii) examine critical considerations for eDNA integration into hydropower EIAs and biological monitoring; (iii) identify knowledge gaps in eDNA analysis and applications unique to hydropower-regulated systems; and (iv) discuss future opportunities to bolster the incorporation of eDNA into hydropower research including regulatory acceptance and public engagement. While we acknowledge that there are several factors that may complicate the broad adoption of eDNA as a tool for assessing the impacts of hydropower, we anticipate that growing confidence in eDNA through hydropower-specific protocols, calibrations, and validations will overcome these inherent uncertainties.

aquatic biodiversity↗

DOE OSTI2022

A Comparison of Time-Series Gap-Filling Methods to Impute Solar Radiation Data: Preprint

Complete solar resource data sets play a critical role at every stage of solar energy projects; however, measured or modeled solar resource data come with significant uncertainties and usually suffer from several issues, including, but not limited to, data gaps and data quality issues. To mitigate these issues, an appropriate data imputation method should be implemented to build a complete and reliable temporal (and spatial) database. Motivated by this, in this study, we extensively compare the performance of eight different gap-filling methods by creating random and artificial data gaps in (i) hourly irradiance data for 1 year using a few locations of the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) and (ii) 1-minute ground measurement data sets from the Surface Radiation Budget Network (SURFRAD) and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) stations.

clearness index↗

DOE OSTI2022

Toward the Advanced Manufacturing of Land-Based Wind Turbine Blades: Preprint

The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and General Electric (GE) are partners within the Additive and Modular Enabled Rotor Blades and Integrated Composites Assembly (AMERICA) project. AMERICA aims to develop advanced manufacturing solutions to reduce labor and cycle time while increasing recyclability of wind turbine blades. The project is funded by the Advanced Manufacturing Office (AMO) of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE). This paper describes the techno-economic analysis of the novel manufacturing process applied to the tip of the blade of a representative land-based wind turbine. A comparison to a standard manufacturing process is established, highlighting challenges and opportunities. Several uncertainties affect the analysis, but with the current set of assumptions, the tip adopting advanced manufacturing is predicted to lower labor by 21%, cycle time by 39%, and total blade tip costs by 15% while simultaneously increasing production quality and adopting recyclable thermoplastic resin.

3D printing↗

DOE OSTI2025

A neural-network-enhanced parameter-varying framework for multi-objective model predictive control applied to buildings

Management of the electrical grid is becoming more complex due to the increased penetration of alternative energy generation technologies and a broadening diversity of electric loads. This complexity creates challenges in balancing demand and generation that can increase the potential for grid instabilities. One effective way to address this issue is to leverage previously unexploited demand flexibility through advanced control strategies. In this work, we propose an advanced control method, called adaptive neural parameter-varying model predictive control (ANPV-MPC), to control the temperature and energy consumption of a building via its Heating, Ventilation, and Air Conditioning system. ANPV-MPC combines key ideas in parameter-varying control, adaptive control, and online learning strategies to bridge the gap between computationally efficient linear model predictive control and more accurate nonlinear model predictive control. The novelty in ANPV-MPC is the use of a physics-inspired Bayesian neural network to estimate the coefficients of the parameter-varying linear control model. The Bayesian neural network additionally provides uncertainty estimates, triggering online training to capture evolving building system conditions. We show that ANPV-MPC can approximate the building system dynamics with a 28.39% higher accuracy than traditional linear model predictive control, resulting in 36.23% better control performance without increasing complexity of the optimal control problem. ANPV-MPC also adapts in real time to previously unseen conditions using online learning, further improving its performance.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2020

A review on the integration of probabilistic solar forecasting in power systems

As one of the fastest growing renewable energy sources, the integration of solar power poses great challenges to power systems due to its variable and uncertain nature. As an effective approach to promote the integration of solar power in power systems, the value of probabilistic forecasts is being increasingly recognized in the recent decade. While the current use of probabilistic forecasts in power systems is limited, enormous amount of research has been conducted to promote the adoption of probabilistic forecasts and many methods have been proposed. This paper gives a comprehensive review on how probabilistic solar forecasts are utilized in power systems to address the challenges. Potential methods to deal with uncertainties in power systems are summarized, such as probabilistic load flow models, stochastic optimization, robust optimization, and chance constraints. Additionally, specific areas where these methods can be applied are discussed and state-of-the-art studies are summarized.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Pathways of bio-jet adoption in the US aviation industry with implications for the overall transportation and energy sectors: an integrated, multi-sectoral analysis of future scenarios

Bio-jet adoption has emerged as an attractive option to complement and supplement the use of refined fossil liquid fuels in the aviation industry in the US. However, there are significant uncertainties surrounding the costs of bio-jet including but not limited to costs of feedstock, transformation costs and the competition with co-products of bio-jet that may be demanded elsewhere in the transportation or energy sectors. This study models alternative trajectories of bio-jet adoption in the US aviation industry by 2050 through the use of a global integrated multi sector dynamics model. Three bio-jet production and consumption pathways are presented- soybean oil to jet, corn ethanol to jet (ETJ) and Fisher–Tropsch-based bio-jet, with each pathway explicitly considering the co-production of renewable diesel and renewable gasoline alongside the bio-jet. Without explicit actions or technology changes to offset the technology cost of bio-jet, scenarios where bio-jet displaces refined liquids result in higher aviation fuel prices (ranging from a 25% increase to 120% increase by mid-century) and lower demand (ranging from −14% to −43%). Corn ethanol will play an important role in the US if large scale amounts of bio-jet are to be produced with smaller effects on demand and prices. While scenarios with high levels of bio-jet availability without the availability of ETJ in the US can significantly reduce emissions in the aviation sector, these reductions are achieved more through the reduction in overall aviation fuel demand rather than technology adoption.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Basin-Scale Relicensing Opportunity

This dataset contains 1,261 hydropower facilities with associated Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) relicensing metrics. Anticipated FERC license renewal dates are summarized by river reach for observing areas of opportunities for basin-wide collaboration on environmental mitigations. Identifying rivers and basins with facilities that have similar anticipated Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) relicensing dates may be one potential indicator that multiple licensees within the same basin may be willing to collaborate on a basin-scale relicensing effort. The hydropower relicensing process requires long-term resource allocation by agencies, hydropower owner/operators, non-governmental organizations, and tribal, state, and federal governments. Basin-scale hydropower relicensing has begun to receive attention as a potential solution for reducing licensing timelines, costs, and uncertainty which can provide benefits to a broad spectrum of participants in the licensing process. This dataset contains one a data file in comma separated (*.csv) format, a data dictionary in *.csv format, and a user guide in *.pdf format. These data are also available as an interactive web map available at:

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Dataset for: Rooftop solar and energy storage programs can remediate energy-limiting behaviors of energy insecure households

Energy insecurity affects most low-income households in the United States. Energy insecurity, which is characterized by a household’s inability to afford their energy needs, often leads to risky choices, causing other forms of insecurity including food and health. Although there are government programs designed to provide relief to low-income households that face energy insecurity, eligibility for these programs is usually determined by household income, and those with incomes close to the threshold face uncertainty or may be left out. In many cases, these households turn to energy-limiting behaviors as a strategy to lower their electric utility bills. This paper explores the relationship between energy insecurity and energy-limiting behaviors to investigate alternative solutions that target the households that may fall out of available energy assistance programs. We explore the role of battery energy storage systems and rooftop solar photovoltaics in improving energy affordability. The results show that residential rooftop solar and behind-the-meter energy storage can offset two-thirds of the bill savings that households attain through energy-limiting behavior. Household renewable energy systems could complement existing energy assistance programs to provide long-term bill relief, enabling occupants to live in their homes with comfort and dignity. This dataset is intended to allow readers to reproduce and customize the analysis performed in this work to their benefit.

Kerby, Jessica [Pacific Northwest National Laborat↗

NASA NTRS1987

An outlook on hypersonic flight

The NASA Langley Research Center has been active in hypersonic research since the 1950's. A central part of the research conducted since 1970 has focussed on high speed airbreathing propulsion - in particular on supersonic combustion ramjets or scramjets. Renewed interest in very high speed flight in the 1980's has led to some expansion and broadening of this activity with particular attention to extreme speeds approaching orbital velocity. The purpose of this paper is to review the impact of extreme speed on the potential of scramjet propulsion. The implications of system performance objectives on propulsion and vehicle requirements will be explored. Some pertinent results from past studies will be summarized along with examples of engineering design and detailed analysis methods applied to typical scramjet components. Critical areas where fundamental knowledge is lacking will be highlighted, and some proposed studies to deal with these uncertainties will be outlined.

Anderson, Griffin Y.↗