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DOE OSTI2020

Modeling Photovoltaics Innovation and Deployment Dynamics

PV’s historically rapid cost reduction is exceptional among technologies. Further cost reductions could play a major role in increasing deployment in the future. To enable such cost reductions, new modeling frameworks are needed to understand the determinants of innovation in PV. In this project, we study the mechanisms driving PV module and system cost reductions, delving deeply into the specific technological innovations that have occurred in the past and the policies that encouraged them, and also opportunities for future cost reduction and widespread deployment. The project contributes new fundamental insight on the determinants of technological innovation by developing novel methods and insights that are generalizable and can therefore be applied to other technologies. The results will allow policy makers, engineers, and other stakeholders to better prioritize their efforts and investments in the future. The project is organized around four journal articles as described below. The first article [1] identifies ‘low-level’ (e.g. conversion efficiency improvement) and ‘high- level’ (e.g. R&D efforts) mechanisms of cost reduction in PV systems (Tasks 1-4). This work builds on a previous DOE grant, where we developed a framework for technological innovation leading to PV module cost reduction [2]. We advance a method to disentangle the contributions of physical (‘hardware’) and non-physical (‘soft technology’) changes. Our results uncover reasons behind the relatively slow evolution of soft technology and can inform new innovation approaches to these technologies. The second article [3] identifies specific engineering or institutional innovations that enabled the low-level mechanisms of cost reduction in PV module and balance-of-systems (BOS) (Tasks 5, 9, 10). We identify 85 innovations and connect them to the cost variables they affected. By developing an innovations typology, this study shows the differences between the types of innovations affecting PV modules and BOS components. Finally, by analyzing the industry origins of innovations, this study also finds that PV was well-positioned within an ecosystem of continuously advancing technologies. The third article [4] studies prospective cost reduction opportunities (Task 10). We explore how design approaches that emphasize standardization and automation, such as plug-and-play PV systems, can create cost reduction opportunities by reducing interactions and speeding up activities with high process costs. We show that this can lead to cost reduction in cost components with the most untapped opportunity for improvement such as installation labor, overhead, electrical BOS, and customer acquisition. The fourth article [5] analyzes how various policies supporting PV deployment and R&D contributed to PV’s cost improvement by enabling high-level mechanisms, specific innovations, and ultimately low-level mechanisms of cost reduction (Tasks 8, 13, 14). We investigate examples from different countries and connect these policies to quantifiable cost change mechanisms. Our study sheds light on the roles that different nations played over time, through a diverse set of policy approaches.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Overall Performance Losses and Activated Mechanisms in Double Glass and Glass-backsheet Photovoltaic Modules with Monofacial and Bifacial PERC Cells, under Accelerated Exposures

Commercial PV modules have various packaging choices nowadays, which influence their long-term reliability. This study compared the degradation behaviors of sixteen module variants from two brands with varying encapsulant materials (EVA or POE), encapsulant types, module architectures (GB or DG), and cell types (monofacial or bifacial) using null hypothesis testing to determine statistical significant findings. The modules were exposed for 2,520 hours under two accelerated exposures: modified damp heat (mDH) and modified damp heat with full-spectrum light (mDH+FSL). For both brands, two DG module variants with UV-Cutoff rear encapsulant are found to have significantly lower average power loss than the module variants of EVA+GB with opaque rear encapsulant after each accelerated exposure. Metallization interconnect corrosion is identified as the primary degradation mechanism. Furthermore, unsupervised hierarchical clustering finds that the degradation behaviors of modules from one brand with a more strict manufacturing quality control depends on module architectures only.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

DuraMAT: Building a Consortium to Accelerate the Photovoltaic Module Reliability Learning Cycle

Durable and reliable photovoltaic (PV) modules are critical to enabling an efficient transition to sustainable energy generation. The rate at which new module designs and materials are developed and deployed currently outpaces the rate at which we can identify failure mechanisms and understand degradation rates. Increasing the service life of PV modules, and our ability to predict performance over time, requires more durable materials and designs, better durability testing, more extensive material characterization, robust modeling, and methods to cross-examine historical performance data to extract meaningful results. This is a multidisciplinary challenge that requires expertise from a broad range of fields and, therefore, benefits significantly from a collaborative approach. In this Perspective, we outline the approach taken by the Durable Module Materials Consortium (DuraMAT), present a few case studies where our approach was successful, and provide an outlook on where this approach might be applied as the PV technology landscape continues to rapidly evolve. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Leaving in the lead: Priorities for perovskite photovoltaics

The need for moving electricity generation to a sustainable model requires the development of low cost ubiquitous photovoltaics (PVs) to harvest the planet’s primary energy source, the Sun. Building upon the successes of Si-based and CdTe-based PV technologies, PVs with lower-embodied energy and requiring lower carbon dioxide equivalent to produce will be required to meet long-term sustainability goals. In particular, thin-film technologies, such as high-efficiency metal halide perovskite (MHP) PV modules, provide avenues to reduced embodied energy, lower energy payback times, and enabling energy-dense tandems [H. M. Wikoff et al., Joule 6(7), 1710–1725 (2022) and V. Fthenakis, Renewable Sustainable Energy Rev. 13(9), 2746–2750 (2009)]. The ability to improve efficiency and lower energy payback time of next generation thin-film PV modules is a critical foundation for green H2 and electrification more broadly. In this regard, Pb-based MHP-PVs have separated themselves as a result of the high-efficiencies that can be realized across a range of electronic gaps. Questions regarding Pb-based MHP-PVs that are often asked, as the challenges of efficiency and reliability are met, revolve around the “problem” of the Pb content. Specifically, “does Pb toxicity preclude MHP-PV modules from being deployed at the TW scale?” To provide this sense of scale, in 2021, the United States burned 10.5 quads of coal, with 90% of that used for electricity generation. Given the energy content of coal of 29 MJ/kg and a residual lead content in that coal of 30 mg/kg, electricity generation from coal resulted in more lead emitted into the atmosphere than what would be required to produce over 2 TW of MHP-PV name plate capacity (assuming a 20% module efficiency and an ∼700 nm active layer). This amounts to more PV power than has been deployed across all PV technologies and geographies to date. This only includes US coal consumption; the rest of the world would be much larger. This example illustrates the scale of the material usage relative to the energy production. Imagine a power-generation technology that offsets these Pb emissions from coal and essentially sequesters this Pb content between two sheets of impermeable glass. Why should we let Pb’s history of misuse prevent it from being included in next generation PV modules that can enable a sustainable energy future?

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2014

Photovoltaic Module Reliability Workshop 2014: February 25-26, 2014

NREL's Photovoltaic (PV) Module Reliability Workshop (PVMRW) brings together PV reliability experts to share information, leading to the improvement of PV module reliability. Such improvement reduces the cost of solar electricity and promotes investor confidence in the technology--both critical goals for moving PV technologies deeper into the electricity marketplace.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Correspondence: Bill of Materials Variation and Module Degradation in Utility-Scale PV Systems

We report photovoltaic (PV) modules of the same make and model are often assembled with different bills of materials (BOMs). In this correspondence, we revisit two case studies of utility-scale silicon PV systems in which these differing BOMs were associated with faster-than-expected degradation. In one of the sites, we found that different metallization paste had been used for grid lines in some cells leading to loss of contact to the cell and severe series resistance degradation. We provide details on the observation of this mechanism at two additional sites not described in the original article. In a second case study, we found that two different types of cell had been used, and that they could be distinguished by their back contact. Cells with uniform back contacts suffered from light and elevated temperature induced degradation (LeTID), while those with local back contacts did not. We also briefly describe BOM variations observed at other sites to illustrate the extent of the challenge. Our results from both sites underscore that variations in BOM, even among modules of the same make and model can lead to reliability challenges.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2013

Method of manufacturing a large-area segmented photovoltaic module

One embodiment of the invention relates to a segmented photovoltaic (PV) module which is manufactured from laminate segments. The segmented PV module includes rectangular-shaped laminate segments formed from rectangular-shaped PV laminates and further includes non-rectangular-shaped laminate segments formed from rectangular-shaped and approximately-triangular-shaped PV laminates. The laminate segments are mechanically joined and electrically interconnected to form the segmented module. Another embodiment relates to a method of manufacturing a large-area segmented photovoltaic module from laminate segments of various shapes. Other embodiments relate to processes for providing a photovoltaic array for installation at a site. Other embodiments and features are also disclosed.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2019

Degradation Mechanism Detection in Photovoltaic Backsheets by Fully Convolutional Neural Network

Materials and devices age with time. Material aging and degradation has important implications for lifetime performance of materials and systems. While consensus exists that materials should be studied and designed for degradation, materials inspection during operation is typically performed manually by technicians. The manual inspection makes studies prone to errors and uncertainties due to human subjectivity. In this work, we focus on automating the process of degradation mechanism detection through the use of a fully convolutional deep neural network architecture (F-CNN). We demonstrate that F-CNN architecture allows for automated inspection of cracks in polymer backsheets from photovoltaic (PV) modules. The developed F-CNN architecture enabled an end-to-end semantic inspection of the PV module backsheets by applying a contracting path of convolutional blocks (encoders) followed by an expansive path of decoding blocks (decoders). First, the hierarchy of contextual features is learned from the input images by encoders. Next, these features are reconstructed to the pixel-level prediction of the input by decoders. The structure of the encoder and the decoder networks are thoroughly investigated for the multi-class pixel-level degradation type prediction for PV module backsheets. The developed F-CNN framework is validated by reporting degradation type prediction accuracy for the pixel level prediction at the level of 92.8%.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2013

Photovoltaic Module Reliability Workshop 2012: February 28 - March 1, 2012 [Slides]

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Degradation mechanisms and partial shading of glass-backsheet and double-glass photovoltaic modules in three climate zones determined by remote monitoring of time-series current–voltage and power datastreams

Degradation and partial shading impact the long-term reliability and power production of photovoltaic (PV) modules and power plants. Time-series power (P mp ) and current–voltage (I-V) curve datastreams from PV modules enable a remote diagnostic approach to quantify active degradation mechanisms and identify partial shading. We study three to nine years of these datastreams, including 3.6 million P mp I-V curves and 36 million values, from eight PV modules, four each of double-glass and glass-backsheet module architectures, located in three distinctly different Köppen-Geiger climate zones, to determine the module’s performance loss rates (PLR), identify active degradation mechanisms and power loss modes, along with partial shading by local objects. Considering both module architectures, PLR results indicate that the BSh climate zone is the most aggressive for module degradation, while the Alpine ET zone is the mildest climate. PLR of double-glass modules located in BWh and BSh climate zones are different due to the significantly greater uniform current loss (ΔP Isc ) for double-glass modules in BSh, at a 5% significance level. Power loss for four out of five modules located in the BWh and BSh climates are dominated by uniform current degradation. Statistical analysis of multistep I-V curves detects partial shading experienced by three studied modules with details of the shading profile, the shading Poynting vector diagram for the obstacle’s relative position, shading scenarios, and duration. Lastly, this work demonstrates how remote monitoring and diagnosis of P mp & I-V time-series of modules can provide quantitative operations and maintenance insights into system performance, degradation mechanisms, and shading.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2015

Partial Shade Stress Test for Thin-Film Photovoltaic Modules: Preprint

Partial shade of monolithic thin-film PV modules can cause reverse-bias conditions leading to permanent damage. In this work, we propose a partial shade stress test for thin-film PV modules that quantifies permanent performance loss. We designed the test with the aid of a computer model that predicts the local voltage, current and temperature stress that result from partial shade. The model predicts the module-scale interactions among the illumination pattern, the electrical properties of the photovoltaic material and the thermal properties of the module package. The test reproduces shading and loading conditions that may occur in the field. It accounts for reversible light-induced performance changes and for additional stress that may be introduced by light-enhanced reverse breakdown. We present simulated and experimental results from the application of the proposed test.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2017

From cells to laminate: probing and modeling residual stress evolution in thin silicon photovoltaic modules using synchrotron X-ray micro-diffraction experiments and finite element simulations

Fracture of silicon crystalline solar cells has recently been observed in increasing percentages especially in solar photovoltaic (PV) modules involving thinner silicon solar cells (<200 μm). Many failures due to fracture have been reported from the field because of environmental loading (snow, wind, etc.) as well as mishandling of the solar PV modules (during installation, maintenance, etc.). However, a significantly higher number of failures have also been reported during module encapsulation (lamination) indicating high residual stress in the modules and thus more prone to cell cracking. Here in this paper we report through the use of synchrotron X-ray submicron diffraction coupled with physics-based finite element modeling, the complete residual stress evolution in mono-crystalline silicon solar cells during PV module integration process. For the first time, we unravel the reason for the high stress and cracking of silicon cells near soldered inter-connects. Our experiments revealed a significant increase of residual stress in the silicon cell near the solder joint after lamination. Moreover, our finite element simulations show that this increase of stress during lamination is a result of highly localized bending of the cell near the soldered inter-connects. Further, the synchrotron X-ray submicron diffraction has proven to be a very effective way to quantitatively probe mechanical stress in encapsulated silicon solar cells. Thus, this technique has ultimately enabled these findings leading to the enlightening of the role of soldering and encapsulation processes on the cell residual stress. This model can be further used to suggest methodologies that could lead to lower stress in encapsulated silicon solar cells, which are the subjects of our continued investigations.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2010

PV array simulator development and validation.

The ability to harvest all available energy from a photovoltaic (PV) array is essential if new system developments are to meet levelized cost of energy targets and achieve grid parity with conventional centralized utility power. Therefore, exercising maximum power point tracking (MPPT) algorithms, dynamic irradiance condition operation and startup and shutdown routines and evaluating inverter performance with various PV module fill-factor characteristics must be performed with a repeatable, reliable PV source. Sandia National Laboratories is collaborating with Ametek Programmable Power to develop and demonstrate a multi-port TerraSAS PV array simulator. The simulator will replicate challenging PV module profiles, enabling the evaluation of inverter performance through analyses of the parameters listed above. Energy harvest algorithms have traditionally implemented methods that successfully utilize available energy. However, the quantification of energy capture has always been difficult to conduct, specifically when characterizing the inverter performance under non-reproducible dynamic irradiance conditions. Theoretical models of the MPPT algorithms can simulate capture effectiveness, but full validation requires a DC source with representative field effects. The DC source being developed by Ametek and validated by Sandia is a fully integrated system that can simulate an IV curve from the Solar Advisor Model (SAM) module data base. The PV simulator allows the user to change the fill factor by programming the maximum power point voltage and current parameters and the open circuit voltage and short circuit current. The integrated PV simulator can incorporate captured irradiance and module temperature data files for playback, and scripted profiles can be generated to validate new emerging hardware embedded with existing and evolving MPPT algorithms. Since the simulator has multiple independent outputs, it also has the flexibility to evaluate an inverter with multiple MPPT DC inputs. The flexibility of the PV simulator enables the validation of the inverter's capability to handle vastly different array configurations.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2016

Economically Sustainable Scaling of Photovoltaics to Meet Climate Targets

To meet climate goals, photovoltaics (PV) deployment will have to grow rapidly over the next fifteen years. We identify two barriers to this growth: scale-up of manufacturing capacity and the cost of PV module production. We explore several technoeconomic approaches to overcoming these barriers and identify deep reductions in the capital intensity (capex) of PV module manufacturing and large increases in module efficiency as the most promising routes to rapid deployment. Given the lag inherent in rolling out new technology, we explore an approach where growth is fueled by debt or subsidies in the short-term and technological advances in the medium term. Finally, we analyze the current capex structure of crystalline silicon PV module manufacturing to identify potential savings.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2018

Finite Element Simulation of Mixed-Mode PV Encapsulant Delamination Based on Cohesive Zone Model: Preprint

A finite element model (FEM) was developed to simulate the mixed-mode delamination failure at the encapsulant interface within PV modules under mixed-mode loading condi- tions. Parameters to characterize the bilinear traction-separation constitutive behavior of cohesive elements were determined by testing the pure mode I critical fracture energy of the photovotaic(PV) cell interface using the width-tapered beam and fitting the simulated load-displacement curve with the tested curve. This developed FEM can be used to predict the critical temperature changes, at which delamination would initiate, of PV modules with different sizes and provide guidance for the design of PV module with better reliability.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2022

On Residual Stresses and Reference Temperatures in Thermomechanical Simulations of Photovoltaic Modules Using the Finite Element Method

Thermomechanical simulation of photovoltaic (PV) modules using the finite element method (FEM) is a useful tool to evaluate module design features in terms of structural integrity, reliability, and durability. One of the main challenges in the numerical modeling of a PV module is the incorporation of residual stresses induced by the manufacturing process. Modeling assumptions and abstractions are necessary to limit the model complexity and reduce the computational time. However, oversimplifications and incorrect assumptions can lead to erroneous numerical results. Unfortunately, much simulation work still neglects process-induced stresses. This can lead to incorrect predictions of the stress-strain history and erroneous conclusions during the design process. In this work, we review current modeling practices for incorporating process-induced stresses, and contrast numerical models that consider residual stresses with those that neglect them. We find that the simulation objective and available material properties dictate which process steps need to be modeled, and explore in depth the modeling of residual stresses induced by the lamination process. We demonstrate that a simplified cooldown procedure at the beginning of the simulation can increase the model accuracy and discuss appropriate choices for starting and reference temperatures in the finite element model.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2010

A high efficiency photovoltaic module integrated converter with the asymmetrical half-bridge flyback converter

A module integrated converter (MIC) for a photovoltaic (PV) cell is important part of power conditioning system (PCS). It performs maximum power point tracking of a PV cell to generate the power as much as possible from solar energy. There are several methods for connection between the PV modules and the MICs. In order to avoid partial shading effects, converter-per-module approach was proposed. The MIC that performs maximum power point tracking (MPPT), if it is low efficiency, is no use. The MIC whose output is connected to the output of PV module was proposed for high efficiency. However, there are some problems. In this study, an asymmetrical half-bridge flyback converter is proposed instead of the original flyback converter with same method to solve the problems. The proposed MIC was built to verify the performance. The new topology using soft switching technique showed good performance for the efficiency. At the higher power, the efficiency of the proposed converter is higher than existing converter. (author)

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2017

Relating Product Prices to Long‐Run Marginal Cost: Evidence from Solar Photovoltaic Modules

Abstract A basic tenet of microeconomics is that for a competitive industry in equilibrium the market price of a product will be equal to its marginal cost. This paper develops a model framework and a corresponding empirical inference procedure for estimating long‐run marginal cost in industries where production costs decline over time. In the context of the solar photovoltaic (PV) module industry, we rely primarily on firm‐level financial accounting data to estimate the long‐run marginal cost of PV modules for the years 2008–2013. During those years, the industry experienced both unprecedented price declines and significant expansions of manufacturing capacity. We compare the trajectory of average sales prices with the estimated long‐run marginal costs in order to quantify the extent to which actual price declines were attributable to reductions in production costs. The trajectory of estimated product costs is then extrapolated to forecast an equilibrium trend line for future PV module prices.

Reichelstein, Stefan↗