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At least 361 records · Page 20
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NASA NTRS2012

The Second Phase of the Global Land Atmosphere Coupling Experiment (GLACE-2): Impact of Land Initialization on Subseasonal Forecasts

The recently-completed second phase of the Global Land-Atmosphere Coupling Experiment (GLACE-2) focused on quantifying, for boreal summer, the subseasonal (out to two months) forecast skill for precipitation and air temperature that can be derived from the realistic initialization of land surface states, notably soil moisture. An overview of the multi-institutional numerical experiment is described, along with a determination and characterization of multi-model "consensus" skill. The models show modest but significant land-derived skill in predicting air temperatures out to two months, especially where the rain gauge network is dense. Given that precipitation is the chief driver of soil moisture, and thereby assuming that rain gauge density is a reasonable proxy for the adequacy of the observational network contributing to soil moisture initialization, this result indeed highlights the potential contribution of enhanced observations to prediction. Land-derived precipitation forecast skill is much weaker than that for air temperature. The skill for predicting air temperature, and to some extent precipitation, increases with the magnitude of the initial soil moisture anomaly. GLACE-2 results are examined further to provide insight into the asymmetric impacts of wet and dry soil moisture initialization on skill.

Koster, Randal↗
DOE OSTI2024

Fluid inertia controls mineral precipitation and clogging in pore to network-scale flows

Mineral precipitation caused by fluid mixing presents complex control and predictability challenges in a variety of natural and engineering processes, including carbon mineralization, geothermal energy, and microfluidics. Precipitation dynamics, particularly under the influence of fluid flow, remain poorly understood. Combining microfluidic experiments and three-dimensional reactive transport simulations, we demonstrate that fluid inertia controls mineral precipitation and clogging at flow intersections, even in laminar flows. We observe distinct precipitation regimes as a function of Reynolds number (Re). At low Reynolds numbers (Re < 10), precipitates form a thin, dense layer along the mixing interface, which shuts precipitation off, while at high Reynolds numbers (Re > 50), strong three-dimensional flows significantly enhance precipitation over the entire intersection, resulting in rapid clogging. When injection rates from two inlets are uneven, flow symmetry-breaking leads to unexpected flow bifurcation phenomena, which result in enhanced concurrent precipitation in both downstream channels. Finally, we extend our findings to rough channel networks and demonstrate that the identified inertial effects on precipitation at the intersection scale are also present and even more dramatic at the network scale. This study sheds light on the fundamental mechanisms underlying mixing-induced mineral precipitation and provides a framework for designing and optimizing processes involving mineral precipitation.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗
DOE OSTI2023

Controls on Barite (BaSO 4 ) Precipitation in Unconventional Reservoirs

Barite (BaSO 4 ) precipitation is one of the most ubiquitous examples of secondary sulfate mineral scaling in shale oil and gas reservoirs. Often, a suite of chemical additives is used during fracturing operations to inhibit the accumulation of mineral scales, though their efficacy is widely varied and poorly understood. This study combines experimental data and multi-component numerical reactive transport modeling to offer a more comprehensive understanding of the geochemical behavior of barite accumulation in shale matrices under conditions typical of fracturing operations. A variety of additives and conditions are individually tested in batch reactor experiments to identify the factors controlling barite precipitation. Our experimental results demonstrate a pH dependence in the rate of barite precipitation, which we use to develop a predictive model including a pH-dependent term that satisfactorily reproduces our observations. Further, this model is then extended to consider the behavior of three major shale samples of highly variable mineralogy (Eagle Ford, Marcellus, and Barnett). This data-validated model offers a reliable tool to predict and ultimately mitigate against secondary mineral accumulation in unconventional shale reservoirs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

The impact of cloud microphysics and ice nucleation on Southern Ocean clouds assessed with single-column modeling and instrument simulators

Abstract. Supercooled liquid clouds are common at higher latitudes (especially over the Southern Ocean) and are critical for constraining climate projections. We take advantage of the Macquarie Island Cloud and Radiation Experiment (MICRE) to perform an analysis of observed and simulated cloud processes over the Southern Ocean in a region and season dominated by supercooled liquid clouds. Using a single-column version of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Integrated Forecast System (IFS), we compare two different cloud microphysical schemes to ground-based observations of cloud, precipitation, and radiation over a 2.5-month period (1 January–17 March 2017). Both schemes are able to reproduce aspects of the cloud and radiation observations during MICRE to within the uncertainty of the data when the thermodynamic profile is prescribed with relaxation. There are differences in water mass and representation of reflectivity between the schemes. A sensitivity study of the cloud microphysics schemes, one a bulk one-moment scheme and the other a two-moment scheme with prediction of mass and number, indicates that several key processes create differences between the schemes. Surface radiative fluxes and total water path are highly sensitive to the formation and fall speed of precipitation. The prediction of hydrometeor number with the two-moment scheme yields a better comparison with observed reflectivity and radiative fluxes, despite predicting higher liquid water contents than observed. With the two-moment scheme, we are also able to test the sensitivity of the results to the input of liquid cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) and ice nuclei (IN). The cloud properties and resulting radiative effects are found to be sensitive to the CCN and IN concentrations. More CCN and IN increase liquid and ice water paths, respectively. Thus, both the dynamic environment and aerosols, integrated through the cloud microphysics, are important for properly representing Southern Ocean cloud radiative effects.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Influence of ontogenetic development, temperature, and pCO2 on otolith calcium carbonate polymorph composition in sturgeons

Changes to calcium carbonate (CaCO 3 ) biomineralization in aquatic organisms is among the many predicted effects of climate change. Because otolith (hearing/orientation structures in fish) CaCO 3 precipitation and polymorph composition are controlled by genetic and environmental factors, climate change may be predicted to affect the phenotypic plasticity of otoliths. We examined precipitation of otolith polymorphs (aragonite, vaterite, calcite) during early life history in two species of sturgeon, Lake Sturgeon, (Acipenser fulvescens) and White Sturgeon (A. transmontanus), using quantitative X-ray microdiffraction. Both species showed similar fluctuations in otolith polymorphs with a significant shift in the proportions of vaterite and aragonite in sagittal otoliths coinciding with the transition to fully exogenous feeding. We also examined the effect of the environment on otolith morphology and polymorph composition during early life history in Lake Sturgeon larvae reared in varying temperature (16/22 °C) and pCO 2 (1000/2500 µatm) environments for 5 months. Fish raised in elevated temperature had significantly increased otolith size and precipitation of large single calcite crystals. Interestingly, pCO 2 had no statistically significant effect on size or polymorph composition of otoliths despite blood pH exhibiting a mild alkalosis, which is contrary to what has been observed in several studies on marine fishes. These results suggest climate change may influence otolith polymorph composition during early life history in Lake Sturgeon.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2021

Evaluation of GEOS Precipitation Flagging for SMAP Soil Moisture Retrieval Accuracy

The precipitation flag in the Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) Level 2 passive soil moisture (L2SMP) retrieval product indicates the presence or absence of heavy precipitation at the time of the SMAP overpass. The flag is based on precipitation estimates from the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) Forward Processing numerical weather prediction system. An error in flagging during an active or recent precipitation event can produce either 1) an overestimation of soil moisture due to short-term surface wetting of vegetation and/or surface ponding (if soil moisture retrieval was attempted in the presence of rain) or 2) an unnecessary nonretrieval of soil moisture and loss of data (if retrieval is flagged due to an erroneous indication of rain). Satellite precipitation estimates from the Integrated Multisatellite Retrievals for GPM (IMERG), version 06, Early Run (latency of ~4 h) precipitationCal product are used here to evaluate the GEOS-based precipitation flag in the L2SMP product for both the 1800 local time (LT) ascending and 0600 LT descending SMAP overpasses over the first five years of the mission (2015–20). Consisting of blended precipitation measurements from the Global Precipitation Mission (GPM) satellite constellation, IMERG is treated as the “truth” when comparing to the GEOS model forecasts of precipitation used by SMAP. Key results include (i) IMERG measurements generally show higher spatial variability than the GEOS forecast precipitation, (ii) the IMERG product has a higher frequency of light precipitation amounts, and (iii) the effect of incorporating IMERG rainfall measurements in lieu of GEOS precipitation forecasts are minimal on the L2SMP retrieval accuracy (determined vs in situ soil moisture measurements at core validation sites). Our results indicate that L2SMP retrievals continue to meet the mission’s accuracy requirement [standard deviation of the unbiased RMSE (ubRMSE) less than 0.04 cu. m/cu. m].

IMERG-precipitationCal↗
DOE OSTI2020

Unified Entrainment and Detrainment Closures for Extended Eddy-Diffusivity Mass-Flux Schemes

The extended Eddy Diffusivity Mass Flux (EDMF) scheme is used as a unied parameterization that simulates subgrid-scale dynamics across a range of regimes.This work presents unied entrainment and detrainment closures that allow this scheme to simulate the dry convective boundary layer, shallow convection and deep convection , while adjacent works present other necessary closures for this unied scheme and test its performance for stable, stratocumulus topped and convective boundary layers. Entrainment and detrainment are modeled as a combination of turbulent and dynamical processes. The turbulent component is taken as downgradient diffusion between subdomains. The dynamical component is based on a ratio of buoyancy and vertical velocity that ensures consistent treatment of the ratio of mass-flux at vanishing area fraction. Dynamical detrainment is controlled by the difference in relative humidity between subdomains when liquid water is present. These closures are rst evaluated with entrainment and detrainment diagnosed from Large Eddy Simulations where decaying tracers are used to identify the different subdomains and mass exchanges between them. When implemented in a single column model (SCM), these closures are tested in simulations of several observationally motivated cases of dry convective boundary layer, shallow convection and deep convection. Results show good agreement between the SCM and Large Eddy Simulations in key properties for climate models and profiles of first, second and third moments. The development of diurnal cycles and the onset of and precipitation (with simplified microphysics) are well predicted by the SCM.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Relationships Between Mesoscale Convective System Properties and Midlevel Dynamic Perturbations

Abstract Past studies implicate dynamic anomalies operating on subsynoptic scales as a possible initiation source of summertime (July–August) mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) in the central United States during northwesterly flow regimes. To improve our understanding of warm season MCSs occurring over a variety of flow regimes, we track midlevel (600 hPa) vorticity perturbations (“MPs”) as 2D objects comprising wavelengths of 500–2,500 km over the central US from May–August of 2004–2021. We perform statistical analysis of relationships between metrics of MP objects (e.g., duration, size, intensity, and origin) and high‐resolution MCS precipitation characteristics (e.g., duration, total rainfall, rain coverage area, and motion) that occur while collocated with or in the absence of MPs to discern predictive capability of background dynamic features on storm precipitation potential. Although the majority of MPs collocated with MCS initiation occur during July–August, a significant number (40%) occur between May and June. Northwesterly flow MPs comprise a relative minority of our events, suggesting that MPs can affect MCSs across a variety of warm season flow regimes. MPs affecting MCSs initiated primarily over the high plains near the central Rockies. Only approximately 20% of tracked MCS initiation events were collocated with MPs, but these storms produced ∼25% greater lifetime rainfall and coverage area, and ∼29% more stratiform rain than non‐MP‐induced MCSs. In general, larger and more vigorous MPs resulted in more hydrologically impactful MCSs. The most directly attributable benefit to MCS initiation was from MP‐enhanced background vertical motion and thermodynamic instability (e.g., increased CAPE).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Pervasive alterations to snow-dominated ecosystem functions under climate change

Climate change projections consistently demonstrate that warming temperatures and dwindling seasonal snowpack will elicit cascading effects on ecosystem function and water resource availability. Despite this consensus, little is known about potential changes in the variability of ecohydrological conditions, which is also required to inform climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies. Considering potential changes in ecohydrological variability is critical to evaluating the emergence of trends, assessing the likelihood of extreme events such as floods and droughts, and identifying when tipping points may be reached that fundamentally alter ecohydrological function. Using a single-model Large Ensemble with sophisticated terrestrial ecosystem representation, we characterize projected changes in the mean state and variability of ecohydrological processes in historically snow-dominated regions of the Northern Hemisphere. Widespread snowpack reductions, earlier snowmelt timing, longer growing seasons, drier soils, and increased fire risk are projected for this century under a high-emissions scenario. In addition to these changes in the mean state, increased variability in winter snowmelt will increase growing-season water deficits and increase the stochasticity of runoff. Thus, with warming, declining snowpack loses its dependable buffering capacity so that runoff quantity and timing more closely reflect the episodic characteristics of precipitation. This results in a declining predictability of annual runoff from maximum snow water equivalent, which has critical implications for ecosystem stress and water resource management. So our results suggest that there is a strong likelihood of pervasive alterations to ecohydrological function that may be expected with climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Water4Energy Tier-1 Raw Observations for TVA Seasonal Prediction, Version 1

Tier-1 (Step-1) raw observation staging collection for the Water4Energy Genesis Task-1 project on weeks-to-years prediction of Tennessee Valley temperature and precipitation. This data-only deposit includes CPC/PSL teleconnection indices, NOAA OISST monthly and ERSST sea-surface temperature, ERA5-derived daily 1° fields (t2m, tp, msl for 1980–2024), CFSv2 NMME ensemble-mean seasonal baselines, and a TVA boundary mask. The product supports seasonal teleconnection diagnostics and construction of AI ready-to-train packs published separately. Multi-terabyte hourly archives are excluded from this version.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Water4Energy Step-1 Band-M Ready-to-Train Samples for TVA Weeks-to-Years Prediction, Version 0

AI-ready Band-M (monthly) labelled training pack for the Water4Energy Genesis Task-1 project on weeks-to-years prediction of Tennessee Valley temperature and precipitation. The deposit includes leakage-aware issue-time samples (samples_M_v0.nc; N=486), train-only scalers, issue-time split table, supporting monthly panels, and Python generation scripts to recreate the pack from the companion Tier-1 raw observation collection (https://doi.org/10.13139/ORNLNCCS/3398576). Each sample pairs a 12-month lookback of teleconnection indices and SST box anomalies with TVA-mean ERA5 anomaly targets (t2m, tp, msl) at leads 1–3 months.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Micro-Pulse DIAL for Atmospheric Water Vapor Profiling (Phase I Final Report)

Water vapor plays a key role in Earth’s climate and weather patterns. Accurate, high resolution measurements of the water vapor vertical profiles in a region have been found to significantly improve the numerical weather prediction models’ short-term forecasts, precipitation forecasts, as well as severe weather forecasts. However, current measurement techniques provide very coarse resolution in space, time, and/or altitude. A network of continuously sampling water vapor profilers would greatly expand the scientific knowledge of the atmosphere and serve as a valuable input into numerical weather models. This would be of interest not only to the Department of Energy’s Environmental Sciences Division but to other institutions such as the National Weather Service, the National Center for Atmospheric Research, the Federal Emergency Management Agency, and the military.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Predictability and feedbacks of the ocean-soil-plant-atmosphere water cycle: deep learning water conductance in Earth System Model

This white paper responds to Focal Area 2. We seek to build predictive models of leaf and surface conductance of water by implementing deep learning (DL) data assimilation techniques. These new models would then be implemented in existing Land Surface Models (LSMs) and Earth System models (ESMs), generating novel water cycle feedbacks. In doing so, we would improve predictability of expected changes in land precipitation, soil moisture, and vegetation dynamics in the long-term, and the role of land cover on the impacts and feedbacks of extreme weather events in the short-term

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

In-service Oxidation and IASCC in High Fluence Baffle-Former Bolts Retrieved from a Westinghouse PWR

Baffle-former bolts (BFBs) are subjected to significant mechanical stress and neutron irradiation from the reactor core during the plant operation. Over the long operation period, these conditions lead to potential degradation and reduced load-carrying capacity of the bolts, and life extension of existing pressurized water reactors (PWRs) would only cause more damage to the bolt material. To this end, the Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) Program Materials Research Pathway (MRP) successfully harvested two high fluence BFBs from a Westinghouse two-loop downflow type PWR in 2016. In the same year, the two BFBs were received at the Westinghouse Churchill facility for inspection and specimen fabrication. The fabrication was completed in 2017 with specimens shipped to Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) for further testing. The objective of this project is to provide information that is integral to evaluating end of life microstructure and properties as a benchmark of international models developed for predicting radiation-induced swelling, segregation, precipitation, mechanical property degradation, and with the latest findings, susceptibility to irradiation-assisted stress corrosion cracking (IASCC).

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Fusing time-varying mosquito data and continuous mosquito population dynamics models

Climate change is arguably one of the most pressing issues affecting the world today and requires the fusion of disparate data streams to accurately model its impacts. Mosquito populations respond to temperature and precipitation in a nonlinear way, making predicting climate impacts on mosquito-borne diseases an ongoing challenge. Data-driven approaches for accurately modeling mosquito populations are needed for predicting mosquito-borne disease risk under climate change scenarios. Many current models for disease transmission are continuous and autonomous, while mosquito data is discrete and varies both within and between seasons. This study uses an optimization framework to fit a non-autonomous logistic model with periodic net growth rate and carrying capacity parameters for 15 years of daily mosquito time-series data from the Greater Toronto Area of Canada. The resulting parameters accurately capture the inter-annual and intra-seasonal variability of mosquito populations within a single geographic region, and a variance-based sensitivity analysis highlights the influence each parameter has on the peak magnitude and timing of the mosquito season. This method can easily extend to other geographic regions and be integrated into a larger disease transmission model. This method addresses the ongoing challenges of data and model fusion by serving as a link between discrete time-series data and continuous differential equations for mosquito-borne epidemiology models.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS1977

Variations in electron density in the middle latitude D-region above Urbana, Illinois

Electron density measurements made with the partial reflections technique above Urbana, Illinois (44 deg 10 min N, 88 deg 10 min W) were analyzed for day-to-day variations, seasonal variations, magnetic storm aftereffects, and stratosphere-ionosphere coupling effects. As well as showing a winter anomaly, the electron densities near 76 km were significantly lower in fall than in spring. Magnetic storm aftereffects of the type predicted by models of energetic electron precipitation at middle latitudes were observed. No strong correlations were found between stratospheric and D-region time series, or between the occurrence of stratospheric warmings and D-region changes. It is likely that most of the electron density variation was due to variations in the transport of minor neutral constituents. The spring-fall differences were also probably caused by differences in minor constituent concentrations rather than the effect of temperature changes on the recombination coefficient.

Wratt, D. S.↗
NASA NTRS1980

The spatial-temporal ambiguity in auroral modeling

The paper examines the time-dependent models of the aurora which show that various ionospheric parameters respond to the onset of auroral ionization with different time histories. A pass of the Atmosphere Explorer C satellite over Poker Flat, Alaska, and ground based photometric and photographic observations have been used to resolve the time-space ambiguity of a specific auroral event. The density of the O(+), NO(+), O2(+), and N2(+) ions, the electron density, and the electron temperature observed at 280 km altitude in a 50 km wide segment of an auroral arc are predicted by the model if particle precipitation into the region commenced about 11 min prior to the overpass.

Rees, M. H.↗
NASA NTRS1985

Assessing the capability of EOS sensors in measuring ocean-atmosphere moisture exchange

As part of the Science Synergism Studies to identify interdisciplinary Scientific studies, which could be addressed by the Environmental Observing System (EOS), the techniques being developed to measure ocean-atmosphere moisture exchanges using satellite sensors were evaluated. Studies required to use sensors proposed for EOS were examined. A method has been developed to compute the moisture flux using the wind speed, sea surface temperature, and preciptable water measured by satellite sensors. It relies on a statistical model which predicts surface-level humidity from precipitable water. The Scanning Multichannel Microwave Radiometer (SMMR) measures all 3 parameters and was found to be sensitive to the annual cycle and large interannual variations such as the 1982 to 1983 El Nino. There are systematic differences between geophysical parameters measured by Nimbus/SMMR and in situ measurements. After quadratic trends and crosstalks were removed from the parameters through multivariate regressions, the latent heat fluxes computed from SMMR agree with those computed from ship reports to within 30 W/sq m. The poor quality of ship reports may be the cause of a portion of this scatter. Similar results are found using SEASAT/SMMR data. When the scatterometer winds were used instead of the SMMR winds, the difference between the satellite fluxes and the ship fluxes was reduced.

Liu, W. T.↗