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At least 361 records · Page 20

Time scales of pattern evolution from cross-spectrum analysis of advanced very high resolution radiometer and coastal zone color scanner imagery

We have selected square subareas (110 km on a side) from coastal zone color scanner (CZCS) and advanced very high resolution radiometer (AVHRR) images for 1981 in the California Current region off northern California for which we could identify sequences of cloud-free data over periods of days to weeks. We applied a two-dimensional fast Fourier transformation to images after median filtering, (x, y) plane removal, and cosine tapering. We formed autospectra and coherence spectra as functions of a scalar wavenumber. Coherence estimates between pairs of images were plotted against time separation between images for several wide wavenumber bands to provide a temporal lagged coherence function. The temporal rate of loss of correlation (decorrelation time scale) in surface patterns provides a measure of the rate of pattern change or evolution as a function of spatial dimension. We found that patterns evolved (or lost correlation) approximately twice as rapidly in upwelling jets as in the 'quieter' regions between jets. The rapid evolution of pigment patterns (lifetime of about 1 week or less for scales of 50-100 km) ought to hinder biomass transfer to zooplankton predators compared with phytoplankton patches that persist for longer times. We found no significant differences between the statistics of CZCS and AVHRR images (spectral shape or rate of decorrelation). In addition, in two of the three areas studied, the peak correlation between AVHRR and CZCS images from the same area occurred at zero lag, indicating that the patterns evolved simutaneously. In the third area, maximum coherence between thermal and pigment patterns occurred when pigment images lagged thermal images by 1-2 days, mirroring the expected lag of high pigment behind low temperatures (and high nutrients) in recently upwelled water. We conclude that in dynamic areas such as coastal upwelling systems, the phytoplankton cells (identified by pigment color patterns) behave largely as passive scalars at the mesoscale and that growth, death, and sinking of phytoplankton collectively play at most a mariginal role in determining the spectral statistics of the pigment patterns.

Denman, Kenneth L.↗

Global-scale Evaluation of SMAP, SMOS and ASCAT Soil Moisture Products Using Triple Collocation

Global-scale surface soil moisture products are currently available from multiple remote sensing platforms. Footprint-scale assessments of these products are generally restricted to limited number of densely-instrumented validation sites. However, by taking active and passive soil moisture products together with a third independent soil moisture estimates via land surface modeling, triple collocation (TC) can be applied to estimate the correlation metric of satellite soil moisture products (versus an unknown ground truth) over a quasi-global domain. Here, an assessment of Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP), Soil Moisture Ocean Salinity (SMOS) and Advanced SCATterometer (ASCAT) surface soil moisture retrievals via TC is presented. Considering the potential violation of TC error assumptions, the impact of active-passive and satellite-model error cross correlations on the TC-derived inter-comparison results is examined at in situ sites using quadruple collocation analysis. In addition, confidence intervals for the TC-estimated correlation metric are constructed from moving-block bootstrap sampling designed to preserve the temporal persistence of the original (unevenly-sampled) soil moisture time-series. This study is the first to apply TC to obtain a robust global-scale cross-assessment of SMAP, SMOS and ASCAT soil moisture retrieval accuracy in terms of anomaly temporal correlation. Our results confirm the overall advantage of SMAP (with a global average anomaly correlation of 0.76) over SMOS (0.66) and ASCAT (0.63) that has been established in several recent regional, ground-based studies. SMAP is also the best-performing product over the majority of applicable land pixels (52%), although SMOS and ASCAT each shows advantage in distinct geographic regions.

global-scale↗

Persistent Nature of Secondary Diurnal Modes of Precipitation over Oceanic and Continental Regimes

This investigation seeks a better understanding of the assorted mechanisms controlling the global distribution of precipitation diurnal variability based on the use of Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) microwave radiometer and radar data. The horizontal distributions of precipitation's diurnal cycle are derived from eight years of TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) and Precipitation Radar (PR) measurements involving three TRMM standard rain rate retrieval algorithms -- the resultant distributions analyzed at various spatiotemporal scales. The results reveal the prominent and expected late-evening to early-morning (LE-EM) precipitation maxima over oceans and the counterpart prominent and expected mid- to late-afternoon (MLA) maxima over continents. Moreover, and not generally recognized, the results reveal a widespread distribution of secondary maxima occurring over both oceans and continents -- maxima which generally mirror their counterpart regime's behavior. That is, many ocean regions exhibit clearcut secondary MLA precipitation maxima while many continental regions exhibit just as evident secondary LE-EM maxima. This investigation is the first comprehensive study of these globally prevalent secondary maxima and their widespread nature, a type of study only made possible when the analysis procedure is applied to a high-quality global-scale precipitation dataset. The characteristics of the secondary maxima are mapped and described on global grids using an innovative clock-face format, while a current study to be published at a later date provides physically-based explanations of the seasonal-regional distributions of the secondary maxima. In addition to an "explicit" maxima identification scheme, a "Fourier decomposition" maxima identification scheme is used to examine the amplitude and phase properties of the primary and secondary maxima -- as well as tertiary and quaternary maxima. Accordingly, the advantages, ambiguities, and pitfalls resulting from use of Fourier harmonic analysis are explained.

Yang, S.↗

"Giovanni at 20: Consistency and Persistency in Making Earth Remote Sensing Data Available (and Useful) to the Earth Science Community"

Since its creation in the year 2000, the NASA Geospatial Interactive Online Visualization ANd aNalysis Infrastructure (Giovanni) has been an exemplar of how to provide remotely-sensed satellite data and related Earth science datasets to a broad and globally diverse researcher community. One of the hallmarks of Giovanni system usage is that it is common to see practitioners of many branches of science – particularly those in fields not traditionally associated with remote-sensing data, such as animal behavior and paleooceanography – both accessing and employing datasets which the system provides. This usage pattern is attested to by the diversity of published science citing Giovanni. Giovanni has evolved through several versions, each of which increased analytical and visualization options while also enhancing ease-of-use. Information resources supporting Giovanni from the Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC), which hosts the system, start with basic mapping and plotting functions and extend to “How-to” recipes demonstrating interusability with other data analysis systems and software. Giovanni is now being developed for use in a cloud environment, potentially expanding datasets the system can be applied to, and also improving performance for data having high spatial and temporal resolution. This presentation covers the system’s historical success with interesting examples of Giovanni-citing research, and will apply its current capabilities to a multi-dataset examination of derecho events associated with mesoscale convective phenomena in the summer of 2020, indicating how Giovanni is prepared for ongoing support of Earth science in a changing world.

Giovanni Derecho visualization↗

Great New Insights from Failed Experiments, Unanticipated Results and Embracing Controversial Observations

Experimental data and observations, whether telescopic or analytical, are never wrong, though data derived from such sources can be misinterpreted or applied inappropriately to derive conclusions that are incorrect. Given that nature always behaves according to the laws of physics and chemistry, rather than according to currently popular models and theories, experimental results should always be considered correct even when the results are far from those that one might initially expect. We discuss a number of cases where the results of experiments, even one carried out as a simple calibration measure, produced wildly different results that generally required many years of effort or contemplation to understand. On the positive side, exploration of the circumstances that produced the errant results often led to new and interesting insights concerning processes that might occur in natural environments and that were well worth the effort involved. Specifically, we show how an experiment that "failed" due to a broken conductor led to experiments that made the first refractory oxide solids containing mass independently fractionated oxygen isotopes and to 1998 predictions of the oxygen isotopic composition of the sun that were confirmed by the analysis of Genesis samples in 2011. We describe a calibration experiment that unexpectedly produced single magnetic domain iron particles. We discuss how tracking down a persistent source of "contamination" in experiments intended to produce amorphous iron and magnesium silicate smokes led to a series of studies on the synthesis of carbonaceous grain coatings that turn out to be very efficient Fischer-Tropsch catalysts and have great potential for trapping the planetary noble gases found in meteorites. We describe how models predicting the instability of silicate grains in circumstellar environments spurred new measurements of the vapor pressure of SiO partially based on previous experiments showing unexpected but systematic non-equilibrium behavior instead of the anticipated equilibrium products resembling meteoritic minerals. We trace the process that led from observations of the presence of crystalline minerals detected in the comae of some comets to the 1999 prediction of large-scale circulation of materials from the hot, innermost regions of the solar nebula out to the cold dark nebular environments where comets form. This large-scale circulation was ultimately confirmed by analyses of highly refractory Stardust samples collected from the Kuiper Belt Comet Wild 2. Finally we discuss a modern and still unresolved conflict between the assumptions built into three well known processes: the CO Self Shielding Model for mass independent isotopic fractionation of oxygen in solar system solids, rapid and thorough mixing within the solar nebula, and the efficient conversion of CO into organic coatings and volatiles on the surfaces of nebular grains via Fischer-Tropsch-type processes.

controversial↗

Radio stimulation and diagnostics of space plasmas

We have investigated the small-scale topside ionospheric plasma structures first observed at Millstone Hill, Massachusetts with the 440 MHz incoherent scatter radar. These small-scale obliquely propagating plasma modes occurring in the vicinity of the midlatitude ionospheric trough, have large radar cross-sections and narrow spectral widths. They have, until recently, been dismissed solely as hard target contamination of the incoherent scatter radar. The geophysical conditions associated with the ionospheric trough, such as the field-aligned current activity and steep plasma density gradients, suggest that these recently discovered small-scale topside ionospheric plasmas may also appear in the auroral and polar ionosphere. In fact, this speculation has been corroborated by the preliminary experiments and data analyses at Tromso, Norway and Sondrestromfjord, Greenland. The primary research results are highlighted. Described in Section 3 are the experiments conducted at Arecibo, Puerto Rico in the past summer for simulating the geophysical conditions of generating these topside ionospheric plasma structures. Recommendation for the future research is finally given. Attached as the appendix of this report are several chapters which present the detailed results of research in the concerned topside ionospheric clutter. Highlights of the research results include: (1) causes of the enhanced radar backscatter (ERB) phenomenon; (2) occurrence of the ERB phenomenon; (3) altitudes of the ERB phenomenon; (4) strength of the ERB returns; (5) range of altitudes of the ERB returns; (6) occurrence frequency of the ERB phenomenon; (7) Doppler effect of the ERB phenomenon; (8) persistency of the ERB; and (9) distinction between ERB phenomenon and space object signatures.

Lee, Min-Chang↗

Evaluation of a Model-Based Groundwater Drought Indicator in the Conterminous U.S.

Monitoring groundwater drought using land surface models is a valuable alternative given the current lack of systematic in situ measurements at continental and global scales and the low resolution of current remote sensing based groundwater data. However, uncertainties inherent to land surface models may impede drought detection, and thus should be assessed using independent data sources. In this study, we evaluated a groundwater drought index (GWI) derived from monthly groundwater storage output from the Catchment Land Surface Model (CLSM) using a GWI similarly derived from in situ groundwater observations. Groundwater observations were obtained from unconfined or semi-confined aquifers in eight regions of the central and northeastern U.S. Regional average GWI derived from CLSM exhibited strong correlation with that from observation wells, with correlation coefficients between 0.43 and 0.92. GWI from both in situ data and CLSM was generally better correlated with the Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) at 12 and 24 month timescales than at shorter timescales, but it varied depending on climate conditions. The correlation between CLSM derived GWI and SPI generally decreases with increasing depth to the water table, which in turn depends on both bedrock depth (a CLSM parameter) and mean annual precipitation. The persistence of CLSM derived GWI is spatially varied and again shows a strong influence of depth to groundwater. CLSM derived GWI generally persists longer than GWI derived from in situ data, due at least in part to the inability of coarse model inputs to capture high frequency meteorological variability at local scales. The study also showed that groundwater can have a significant impact on soil moisture persistence where the water table is shallow. Soil moisture persistence was estimated to be longer in the eastern U.S. than in the west, in contrast to previous findings that were based on models that did not represent groundwater. Assimilation of terrestrial water storage data from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite mission improved the correlation between CLSM based regional average GWI and that based on in situ data in six of the eight regions. Practical issues regarding the application of GRACE assimilated groundwater storage for drought detection are discussed. An important conclusion of this study is that model parameters that control the depth to the water table, including bedrock depth, strongly influence the evolution and persistence of simulated groundwater and require careful configuration for drought monitoring.

Evaluation↗

Evaluation of a Model-Based Groundwater Drought Indicator in the Conterminous U.S.

Monitoring groundwater drought using land surface models is a valuable alternative given the current lack of systematic in situ measurements at continental and global scales and the low resolution of current remote sensing based groundwater data. However, uncertainties inherent to land surface models may impede drought detection, and thus should be assessed using independent data sources. In this study, we evaluated a groundwater drought index (GWI) derived from monthly groundwater storage output from the Catchment Land Surface Model (CLSM) using a GWI similarly derived from in situ groundwater observations. Groundwater observations were obtained from unconfined or semi-confined aquifers in eight regions of the central and northeastern U.S. Regional average GWI derived from CLSM exhibited strong correlation with that from observation wells, with correlation coefficients between 0.43 and 0.92. GWI from both in situ data and CLSM was generally better correlated with the Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) at 12 and 24 month timescales than at shorter timescales, but it varied depending on climate conditions. The correlation between CLSM derived GWI and SPI generally decreases with increasing depth to the water table, which in turn depends on both bedrock depth (a CLSM parameter) and mean annual precipitation. The persistence of CLSM derived GWI is spatially varied and again shows a strong influence of depth to groundwater. CLSM derived GWI generally persists longer than GWI derived from in situ data, due at least in part to the inability of coarse model inputs to capture high frequency meteorological variability at local scales. The study also showed that groundwater can have a significant impact on soil moisture persistence where the water table is shallow. Soil moisture persistence was estimated to be longer in the eastern U.S. than in the west, in contrast to previous findings that were based on models that did not represent groundwater. Assimilation of terrestrial water storage data from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite mission improved the correlation between CLSM based regional average GWI and that based on in situ data in six of the eight regions. Practical issues regarding the application of GRACE assimilated groundwater storage for drought detection are discussed. An important conclusion of this study is that model parameters that control the depth to the water table, including bedrock depth, strongly influence the evolution and persistence of simulated groundwater and require careful configuration for drought monitoring.

hydrology↗

Quantifying Uncertainties in Nighttime Light Retrievals From Suomi-NPP and NOAA-20 VIIRS Day/Night Band Data

Satellite observations of nighttime lights (NTL) from Suomi-NPP and NOAA-20 VIIRS Day/Night Band data have been widely used to estimate human activities. Long-term changes such as urban development and abrupt short-term changes such as power outages have been monitored from temporal NTL acquired by satellites. While high temporal NTL variation has been found across NTL data of varying temporal scale (e.g., daily, monthly, and annual composites), the sources of measurement error and uncertainty are poorly understood. This paper quantifies the sources of VIIRS-derived NTL uncertainty due to view-illumination geometry, surface Bidirectional Reflectance Distribution Function (BRDF)/albedo, and the effects of snow cover, lunar irradiance, aerosol loading, cloud mask, vegetation, geometry, and ephemeral artifacts (e.g., the Aurora Borealis). Based on this current assessment of NASA Black Marble retrievals (VNP46, Collection V001), we found that angular and atmospheric effects dominate retrieval uncertainty. Errors introduced by upstream data inputs (e.g., a coarser nighttime snow cover flag and misclassification errors in the existing VIIRS nighttime cloud mask) were also found to impact retrieval quality. Despite these challenges, a consistent daily NTL time series record can be routinely generated from top-of-atmosphere VNP46 radiances. Key recommendations include: (1) the use of lunar-BRDF adjusted and atmospherically corrected NTL (i.e., as identified as high-quality retrievals in the VNP46 QA fields), (2) development and improvement to the VIIRS snow cover and cloud masks algorithms to accurately reflect NTL retrieval conditions, (3) characterizing seasonal variations in NTL due to vegetation and snow, (4) reducing geometric effects due to the spatial mismatch of gridded pixel and observation footprint, (5) employing angularly-consistent NTL observations from multiple VIIRS instruments (i.e., Suomi-NPP and NOAA-20) to reduce pixel-based uncertainties and address persistent data gaps, and (6) being mindful of surface-reflected radiance from aurora events at mid-to-high latitudes.

Zhuosen Wang↗

Information Power Grid: Distributed High-Performance Computing and Large-Scale Data Management for Science and Engineering

The term "Grid" refers to distributed, high performance computing and data handling infrastructure that incorporates geographically and organizationally dispersed, heterogeneous resources that are persistent and supported. The vision for NASN's Information Power Grid - a computing and data Grid - is that it will provide significant new capabilities to scientists and engineers by facilitating routine construction of information based problem solving environments / frameworks that will knit together widely distributed computing, data, instrument, and human resources into just-in-time systems that can address complex and large-scale computing and data analysis problems. IPG development and deployment is addressing requirements obtained by analyzing a number of different application areas, in particular from the NASA Aero-Space Technology Enterprise. This analysis has focussed primarily on two types of users: The scientist / design engineer whose primary interest is problem solving (e.g., determining wing aerodynamic characteristics in many different operating environments), and whose primary interface to IPG will be through various sorts of problem solving frameworks. The second type of user if the tool designer: The computational scientists who convert physics and mathematics into code that can simulate the physical world. These are the two primary users of IPG, and they have rather different requirements. This paper describes the current state of IPG (the operational testbed), the set of capabilities being put into place for the operational prototype IPG, as well as some of the longer term R&D tasks.

Johnston, William E.↗

The Role of Self-Organized Criticality in the Substorm Phenomenon and its Relation to Localized Reconnection in the Magnetospheric Plasma Sheet

Evidence is presented that suggests there is a significant self-organized criticality (SOC) component in the dynamics of substorms in the magnetosphere. Observations of BBFs, fast flows, localized dipolarizations, plasma turbulence, etc. are taken to show that multiple localized reconnection sites provide the basic avalanche phenomenon in the establishment of SOC in the plasma sheet. First results are presented from a continuing plasma physical study of this avalanche process. A one-dimensional resistive MHD model of a magnetic field reversal is discussed. Resistivity, in this model, is self-consistently generated in response to the excitation of an idealized current-driven instability. When forced by convection of magnetic flux into the field reversal region, the model yields rapid magnetic field annihilation through a dynamic behavior that is shown to exhibit many of the characteristics of SOC. Over a large range of forcing strengths, the annihilation rate is shown to self-adjust to balance the rate at which flux is convected into the reversal region. Several analogies to magnetotail dynamics are discussed: (1) It is shown that the presence of a localized criticality in the model produces a remarkable stability in the global configuration of the field reversal while simultaneously exciting extraordinarily dynamic internal evolution. (2) Under steady forcing, it is shown that a loading-unloading cycle may arise that, as a consequence of the global stability, is quasi-periodic and, therefore, predictable despite the presence of internal turbulence in the field distribution. Indeed, it is shown that the global loading-unloading cycle is a consequence of the internal turbulence. (3) It is shown that, under steady, strong forcing the loading-unloading cycle vanishes. Instead, a recovery from a single unloading persists indefinitely. The field reversal is globally very steady while internally it is very dynamic as field annihilation goes on at the rate necessary to match the strong forcing. From this result we speculate that steady magnetospheric convection events result when the plasma sheet has been driven close to criticality over an extended spatial domain. During these events, we would expect to find localized reconnection sites distributed over the spatial domain of near criticality and we would expect to find plasma sheet transport in that domain to be closely related to that of BBF and fast flow events.

Klimas, Alex J.↗

Both necrosis and apoptosis contribute to HIV-1-induced killing of CD4 cells

BACKGROUND: Data currently available on HIV-1-induced cytopathology is unclear regarding the mechanism of cell killing. OBJECTIVE: To clarify the extent to which apoptosis or necrosis is involved in HIV-1-induced cell death in view of conflicting existing data. METHODS: T lymphoblastoid cells or peripheral blood mononuclear cells were infected by various strains of HIV-1 and the numbers of apoptotic or necrotic cells were quantified at various times after infection using video-image analysis techniques; the results were compared with the amount of fragmented DNA using a quantitative method. Measurement of mitochondrial transmembrane potential (deltapsi(m)) and intracellular calcium concentrations [Ca2+]i was performed with fluorescent probes and fluorescence concentration analysis (FCA). RESULTS: Although lymphoblastoid and monocytoid cells acutely infected by HIV-1 had increased levels of fragmented DNA, a marker of apoptotic cell death, few (<12%) had condensed chromatin and fragmented nuclei, the morphological features of apoptosis. The predominant alterations in acutely infected cells were distended endoplasmic reticulum and abnormal mitochondria; these ultrastructural changes are consistent with necrosis, although some infected cells simultaneously displayed features of both necrosis and apoptosis. Viability of cells persistently infected by HIV-1 was only minimally reduced from that of uninfected cells. This reduction was accounted for by an increased propensity of the persistently infected cells to die by apoptosis. Alterations in [Ca2+]i and deltapsi(m) occurred in both acutely and persistently infected cells. CONCLUSION: Both necrosis and apoptosis contribute to HIV-1-induced killing of CD4 cells.

Non-NASA Center↗

Freeze-Thaw Cycling as a Chemical Weathering Agent on a Cold and Icy Mars

Liquid water was abundant on early Mars, but whether the climate was warm and wet or cold and icy with punctuated periods of melting is still poorly understood. Modern climate models for Mars tend to predict a colder, icier early climate than previously imagined. In addition, ice and glaciation have been major geologic agents throughout the later Hesperian and Amazonian eras. One process that can act in such climates is repeated freezing and thawing of water on the surface and in the subsurface, and is significant because it can occur anywhere with an active layer and could have persisted for a time after liquid water was no longer stable on Mars’ surface. As freeze-thaw is the dominant mechanical weathering process in most glacial/periglacial terrains, it was likely a significant geomorphologic driver at local to regional scales during past climates, and would potentially have been most active when day-average surface temperatures exceeded 0 °C for part of the year. Indeed, freeze-thaw involving liquid water in the Amazonian is evidenced by abundant geomorphic features including polygonal ground and solifluction lobes requiring seasonal thawing. In addition to physical modification, freezing can drive solutions towards supersaturation and force dissolved solutes out as precipitates. In Mars-like terrains, dissolved solutes are typically dominated by silica. In polar regions on Earth, freeze-thaw cycles have been shown to promote deposition of silica, and freeze-thaw experiments on synthetic solutions found stable amorphous silica that built up over multiple cycles. Freeze-thaw may therefore be an important but overlooked chemical weathering process on Mars. However, our ability to assess its impact on alteration of martian terrains is majorly limited by the current lack of understanding of the alteration phases produced (and formation rates) under controlled freeze-thaw weathering of Mars-relevant materials. To address this knowledge gap, we report results from (1) freeze-thaw weathering products found at a glacial Mars analog site at the Three Sisters, Oregon, and (2) new controlled freeze-thaw experiments on basaltic material.

Scudder, N. A.↗

Mangroves Cover Change Trajectories 1984-2020: The Gradual Decrease of Mangroves in Colombia

Awareness of the significant benefits of mangroves to human lives and their role in regulating environmental processes has increased during the recent decades. Yet there remains significant uncertainty about the mangrove change trajectories and the drivers of change at national scales. In Colombia, the absence of historical satellite imagery and persistent cloud cover have impeded the accurate mapping of mangrove extent and change over time. We create a temporally consistent Landsat-derived dataset using the LandTrendr algorithm to track the historical land cover and mangrove conversion from 1984-2020 across Colombia. Over this period, mangrove extent decreased by ~48.000ha (14% of total mangrove area). We find a gradual reduction of mangrove extent along the Pacific coast since 2004, whereas, in the Caribbean, mangrove cover declined around during 1984-1988 and also after 2012. Our time-series analysis matches with drivers of mangrove change at three local sites. For instance, hydroclimatic events, dredging activities, and high sediment loads transported by the rivers have collectively improved mangrove recovery in some sites. In contrast, human activities pressure linked to agricultural expansion and road construction have degraded mangroves. The transition from dense mangrove to other vegetation types is the most significant conversion affecting mangrove cover in Colombia, impacting an area of 38,469 ± 2,829 ha. We anticipate increased mangrove loss, especially along the Pacific coast, resulting from intensified human activity. Prioritization of conservation areas is needed to support local institutions, maintain currently protected areas, and develop strategies (e.g. payment for ecosystem services) to preserve one of the most pristine mangrove regions in the Western Hemisphere.

Landsat↗

Growing Impact of Wildfire on Western US Water Supply

Streamflow often increases after fire, but the persistence of this effect and its importance to present and future regional water resources are unclear. This paper addresses these knowledge gaps for the western United States (WUS), where annual forest fire area increased by more than 1,100% during 1984 to 2020. Among 72 forested basins across the WUS that burned between 1984 and 2019, the multibasin mean streamflow was significantly elevated by 0.19 SDs ( P < 0.01) for an average of 6 water years postfire, compared to the range of results expected from climate alone. Significance is assessed by comparing prefire and postfire streamflow responses to climate and also to streamflow among 107 control basins that experienced little to no wildfire during the study period. The streamflow response scales with fire extent: among the 29 basins where >20% of forest area burned in a year, streamflow over the first 6 water years postfire increased by a multibasin average of 0.38 SDs, or 30%. Postfire streamflow increases were significant in all four seasons. Historical fire–climate relationships combined with climate model projections suggest that 2021 to 2050 will see repeated years when climate is more fire-conducive than in 2020, the year currently holding the modern record for WUS forest area burned. These findings center on relatively small, minimally managed basins, but our results suggest that burned areas will grow enough over the next 3 decades to enhance streamflow at regional scales. Wildfire is an emerging driver of runoff change that will increasingly alter climate impacts on water supplies and runoff-related risks.

wildfire↗

Oblique Instability of Quasi-Parallel Whistler Waves in the Presence of Cold and Warm Electron Populations

Whistler waves propagating nearly parallel to the ambient magnetic field experience a nonlinear instability due to transverse currents when the background plasma has a population of sufficiently low energy electrons. Intriguingly, this nonlinear process may generate oblique electrostatic waves, including whistlers near the resonance cone with properties resembling oblique chorus waves in the Earth’s magnetosphere. Focusing on the generation of oblique whistlers, earlier analysis of the instability is extended here to the case where low-energy background plasma consists of both a “cold” population with energy of a few eV and a “warm” electron component with energy of the order of 100 eV. This is motivated by spacecraft observations in the Earth’s magnetosphere where oblique chorus waves were shown to interact resonantly with the warm electrons. The main new results are: 1) the instability producing oblique electrostatic waves is sensitive to the shape of the electron distribution at low energies. In the whistler range of frequencies, two distinct peaks in the growth rate are typically present for the model considered: a peak associated with the warm electron population at relatively low wavenumbers and a peak associated with the cold electron population at relatively high wavenumbers; 2) overall, the instability producing oblique whistler waves near the resonance cone persists (with a reduced growth rate) even in the cases where the temperature of the cold population is relatively high, including cases where cold population is absent and only the warm population is included; 3) particle-in-cell simulations show that the instability leads to heating of the background plasma and formation of characteristic plateau and beam features in the parallel electron distribution function in the range of energies resonant with the instability. The plateau/beam features have been previously detected in spacecraft observations of oblique chorus waves. However, they have been attributed to external sources and have been proposed to be the mechanism generating oblique chorus. In the present scenario, the causality link is reversed and the instability generating oblique whistler waves is shown to be a possible mechanism for formation of the plateau and beam features.

Vadim Roytershteyn↗

BLOOD-BASED MULTI-SCALE MODEL FOR CANCER RISK FROM GCR IN GENETICALLY DIVERSE POPULATIONS

OBJECTIVES AND METHODS This project addresses the challenge of understanding and predicting individual radiation sensitivity by integrating genetics, demographics and biomarker characteristics across species (mice and humans). We hypothesize that ex vivo DNA repair response to GCR components is a central determinant of cancer risk from space radiation and can serve as a biomarker of radiation risk in combination with genetics. Automated image quantification of 53BP1+ radiation-induced foci (RIF) during the first 4-48 h post-irradiation was performed as a function of dose and LET in non-immortalized primary skin fibroblasts derived from 76 mice across 15 strains (5 inbred reference strains and 10 collaborative-cross strains) exposed to X rays (0.1, 1 and 4 Gy), 350 MeV/n 40Ar and 600 MeV/n 56Fe (1.1 and 3 particles/100μm2), as well as in peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs) from 768 healthy donors (matched ethnicity, 50/50 male/female, 18-70 years old) exposed to gamma rays (0.1 and 1 Gy), 350 MeV/n 28Si, 350 MeV/n 40Ar and 600 MeV/n 56Fe (1.1 and 3 particles/100μm2). QUANTIFICATION OF 53BP1+ FOCI IN VITRO AND ASSOCIATIONS TO IN VIVO RADIATION SUSCEPTIBILITY IN 15 MOUSE STRAINS We reported in vitro repair kinetic and repairable fractions of RIF for the 15 mouse strains and introduced a mathematical model for RIF as a function of time, dose and LET. We noted that the metabolic activity of cells modulates the RIF response, and we introduced the open access tool terRIFic (Tool for Enhanced Results of RIF In Cells, https://radbiolab.shinyapps.io/terrific/) to correct for such bias using confluence level. Notably, at 4h post-irradiation, RIF/Gy decreased with dose or LET: as the dose or LET increases, so does the proximity of DNA double-strand-breaks (DSB) and our data suggest that proximal DSBs are brought together inside isolated RIF for repair. The RIF/Gy trend was inverted at 24h, suggesting RIF with high DSB content are more difficult to repair. We showed that in vitro metrics correlate with in vivo measurements in the same 15 mouse strains, such as survival levels of immune cells or spontaneous cancer incidence, suggesting a relationship between the efficiency of DSB repair and cancer risk or radiation toxicity. In addition to the efficiency of repair and persistent RIF, the amount of spontaneous foci before irradiation was also found to be strain dependent. Finally, we performed genome-wide association study in the same 15 mouse strains using all RIF phenotypes measured in vitro, identifying genes of interest and validating RIF as an ideal biomarker for individual radiation sensitivity. BASELINE 53BP1+ FOCI PREDICTS INDIVIDUAL HUMAN RESPONSE TO GCR COMPONENTS Based on the analysis of radiation responses of 576 donor PBMCs (using quantification of 53BP1+ foci, oxidative stress and cell death), we observed a wide variability of subject- and LET-dependent radiation responses, with radiation-induced DNA repair foci increasing with LET, though oxidative stress being notably reduced by high-LET irradiation, potentially due to a switch between hydrogen peroxide and oxygen radical-based mechanisms. We identified a relationship between few spontaneous DNA foci at baseline and increased DNA repair after irradiation, accompanied by an alteration in immunoregulatory cytokine secretion, which might be adapted as biomarkers to predict ionizing radiation sensitivity. Among demographic variables, only latent cytomegalovirus infection and age were predictive of high baseline foci formation. Finally, we have performed low-throughput whole genome sequencing of all samples and are currently in the process of identifying the genes and pathways associated with low and high-LET ionizing radiation sensitivity in humans.

53BP1↗

Low Luminosity States of the Black Hole Candidate GX 339-4: Timing Analysis - 2

Here we present timing analysis of a set of eight Rossi X-ray Timing Explorer (RXTE) observations of the black hole candidate GX 339-4 that were taken during its hard/low state. On long time scales, the RXTE All Sky Monitor data reveal evidence of a 240 day periodicity, comparable to timescales expected from warped, precessing accretion disks. On short timescales all observations save one show evidence of a persistent f(qpo approximately equals 0.3 Hz quasi-periodic oscillations (QPO)). The broad band (10 (exp -3) to 10 (exp2) Hz) power appears to be dominated by two independent processes that can be modeled as very broad Lorentzians with Q approximately less than - 1. The coherence function between soft and hard photon variability shows that if these are truly independent processes, then they are individually coherent, but they are incoherent with one another. This is evidenced by the fact that the coherence function between the hard and soft variability is near unity between 5 x 10 (exp -3) but shows evidence of a dip at f approximately equals 1 Hz. This is the region of overlap between the broad Lorentzian fits to the Power Spectral Density (PSD). Similar to Cyg X-1, the coherence also drops dramatically at frequencies approximately greater than 1O Hz. Also similar to Cyg X-1, the hard photon variability is seen to lag the soft photon variability with the lag time increasing with decreasing Fourier frequency. The magnitude of this time lag appears to be positively correlated with the flux of GX 339-4. We discuss all of these observations in light of current theoretical models of both black hole spectra and temporal variability.

Nowak, Michael A.↗