Results for “peak estimation” — Page 20

DOE OSTI2023

The influence of physical and algorithmic factors on simulated far-field waveforms and source–time functions of underground explosions using unsupervised machine learning

SUMMARY Characterizing explosion sources and differentiating between earthquake and underground explosions using distributed seismic networks becomes non-trivial when explosions are detonated in cavities or heterogeneous ground material. Moreover, there is little understanding of how changes in subsurface physical properties affect the far-field waveforms we record and use to infer information about the source. Simulations of underground explosions and the resultant ground motions can be a powerful tool to systematically explore how different subsurface properties affect far-field waveform features, but there are added variables that arise from how we choose to model the explosions that can confound interpretation. To assess how both subsurface properties and algorithmic choices affect the seismic wavefield and the estimated source functions, we ran a series of 2-D axisymmetric non-linear numerical explosion experiments and wave propagation simulations that explore a wide array of parameters. We then inverted the synthetic far-field waveform data using a linear inversion scheme to estimate source–time functions (STFs) for each simulation case. We applied principal component analysis (PCA), an unsupervised machine learning method, to both the far-field waveforms and STFs to identify the most important factors that control variance in the waveform data and differences between cases. For the far-field waveforms, the largest variance occurs in the shallower radial receiver channels in the 0–50 Hz frequency band. For the STFs, both peak amplitude and rise times across different frequencies contribute to the variance. We find that the ground equation of state (i.e. lithology and rheology) and the explosion emplacement conditions (i.e. tamped versus cavity) have the greatest effect on the variance of the far-field waveforms and STFs, with the ground yield strength and fracture pressure being secondary factors. Differences in the PCA results between the far-field waveforms and STFs could possibly be due to near-field non-linearities of the source that are not accounted for in the estimation of STFs and could be associated with yield strength, fracture pressure, cavity radius and cavity shape parameters. Other algorithmic parameters are found to be less important and cause less variance in both the far-field waveforms and STFs, meaning algorithmic choices in how we model explosions are less important, which is encouraging for the further use of explosion simulations to study how physical Earth properties affect seismic waveform features and estimated STFs.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Census of the Young Stellar Population in the Galactic H ii Region Sh2-242

We present here identification and characterization of the young stellar population associated with an active star-forming site Sh2-242. We used our own new optical imaging and spectroscopic observational data, as well as several archival catalogs, e.g., Pan-STARRS 1, Gaia DR2, IPHAS, Wide-field InfraRed Camera, 2MASS, and Spitzer. Slit spectroscopic results confirm the classification of the main ionizing source BD+26 980 as an early-type star of spectral type B0.5 V. The spectrophotometric distance of the star is estimated as 2.08 ± 0.24 kpc, which confirms the source as a member of the cluster. An extinction map covering a large area (diameter ∼50′) is generated with H and K photometry toward the region. From the map, three distinct locations of peak extinction complexes (A {sub V} ≃ 7–17 mag) are identified for the very first time. Using the infrared color excess, a total of 33 Class I and 137 Class II young objects are classified within the region. The IPHAS photometry reveals classification of 36 Hα emitting sources, which might be class II objects. Among 36 Hα emitting sources, 5 are already identified using infrared excess emission. In total, 201 young objects are classified toward S242 from this study. The membership status of the young sources is further windowed with the inclusion of parallax from the Gaia DR2 catalog. Using the optical and infrared color–magnitude diagrams, the young stellar objects are characterized with an average age of ∼1 Myr and masses in the range 0.1–3.0 M {sub ☉}. The census of the stellar content within the region is discussed using combined photometric and spectroscopic data.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Annual carbon dioxide flux over seasonal sea ice in the Canadian Arctic

Continuous measurements of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) flux were collected from a 10 m eddy covariance tower in a coastal-marine environment in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago over the course of a 17-month period. The extended length of data collection resulted in a unique dataset that includes measurements from two spring melt and summer seasons and one autumn freeze-up. These field observations were used to verify findings from previous theoretical and laboratory experiments investigating air-sea gas exchange in connection with sea ice. The results corroborated previous findings showing that thick ice cover under winter conditions acts as a barrier to gas exchange. In the spring, CO 2 fluxes were downward (uptake) in both the presence of melt ponds and during ice break-up. However, diurnal cycles were present throughout the early spring melt period, corresponding to the opposing influences of freezing and melting at the ice surface. Fluxes measured during melt periods confirmed previous laboratory tank measurements that showed a gas transfer coefficient of melting ice of 0.4 mol m −2 d −1 atm −1 . Open water CO 2 fluxes showed outgassing in early summer and uptake in mid-to-late summer, tied closely to trends in surface water temperature and its effect on the partial pressure of CO 2 in the water. The autumn period of the field campaign represents the first eddy covariance CO 2 fluxes measured over naturally forming sea ice. Our measurements showed mean upward fluxes (outgassing) of 1.1±1.5 mmol m −2 d −1 associated with the freezing of ice – the same order of magnitude found by previous laboratory tank experiments. However, peak flux periods during ice formation had measured fluxes that were a factor of 3 higher than the tank experiments, suggesting the importance of natural conditions (e.g., wind) on air-ice gas exchange. Conducting an Arctic-wide extrapolation we estimate CO 2 outgassing from the freezing period to be a counterbalance equivalent to 5 to 15 % of the magnitude of the estimated Arctic CO 2 sink. Overall, there was no evidence of dramatically enhanced gas exchange in marginal ice conditions as proposed by previous studies. Although the different seasons showed active CO 2 exchange, there was a balance between upward and downward fluxes at this specific location, resulting in a small net CO 2 uptake over the annual cycle of −0.3 g C m −2 .

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

High pressure phase transition and strength estimate in polycrystalline alumina during laser-driven shock compression

Alumina (Al 2 O 3 ) is an important ceramic material notable for its compressive strength and hardness. It represents one of the major oxide components of the Earth's mantle. Static compression experiments have reported evidence for phase transformations from the trigonal α-corundum phase to the orthorhombic Rh 2 O 3 (II)-type structure at ~90 GPa, and then to the post-perovskite structure at ~130 GPa, but these phases have yet to be directly observed under shock compression. In this work, we describe laser-driven shock compression experiments on polycrystalline alumina conducted at the Matter in Extreme Conditions endstation of the Linac Coherent Light Source. Ultrafast x-ray pulses (50 fs, 10 12 photons/pulse) were used to probe the atomic-level response at different times during shock propagation and subsequent pressure release. At 107 ± 8 GPa on the Hugoniot, we observe diffraction peaks that match the orthorhombic Rh 2 O 3 (II) phase with a density of 5.16 ± 0.03 g cm –3 . Upon unloading, the material transforms back to the α-corundum structure. Upon release to ambient pressure, densities are lower than predicted assuming isentropic release, indicating additional lattice expansion due to plastic work heating. Furthermore, using temperature values calculated from density measurements, we provide an estimate of alumina's strength on release from shock compression.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Tidal energy resource characterization measurements at Cook Inlet’s East Foreland: Velocity and turbulence

To characterize tidal current and turbulence at a top tidal energy site off the East Foreland in Cook Inlet, Alaska, United States, three moorings were deployed for two months between July and August 2021, and a transect survey was conducted over the course of two tidal cycles at the end of the deployment period. Measurements of velocity and turbulence were then analyzed to better understand the site's hydrodynamics and power potential. Analysis reveals that swift, north-flowing flood currents peak at 4~m/s, while south-flowing ebb currents reach just over 3~m/s. Turbulence intensity ranges from 23\% at the seafloor to 8\% near the surface, and the presence of the foreland creates more intense turbulence near-shore during ebb tide than flood. Power availability at the site could be as high as 720~MW, or 13~kW/m$^2$, though the energy available to a marine energy device will be smaller than this estimate because of water-to-wire efficiency and wake losses. The results from this measurement campaign will inform the validation of a high-resolution tidal hydrodynamic model, as well as early tidal energy projects that are beginning to move beyond the prototyping and demonstration stages to full-scale deployments.

McVey, James R.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Chromosome aberrations among atomic-bomb survivors exposed in utero: updated analysis accounting for revised radiation doses and smoking

A previous study of peripheral blood lymphocyte translocations around age 40 among atomic-bomb survivors exposed in utero revealed no overall association with radiation dose—despite a clear association between translocations and dose among their mothers—but the data suggested an increase at doses below 100 mGy with a definite peak. That analysis of the in utero-exposed survivors did not adjust for their subsequent smoking behavior, an established cause of chromosomal aberrations, or their subsequent exposures to medical irradiation, a potential mediator. In addition, atomic-bomb survivor radiation dose estimates have subsequently been updated and refined. We therefore re-estimated the dose response using the latest DS02R1 dose estimates and adjusting for smoking as well as for city and proximal–distal location at the time of exposure to the atomic bomb. Sex of the survivor, mother’s age around the time of conception, and approximate trimester of gestation at the time of exposure were also considered as explanatory variables and modifiers. Precision of the estimated dose response was slightly lower due to greater variability near zero in the updated dose estimates, but there was little change in evidence of a low-dose increase and still no suggestion of an overall increase across the entire dose range. Adjustment for smoking behavior led to a decline in background number of translocations (the dose–response intercept), but smoking did not interact with dose overall (across the entire dose range). Adjustment for medical irradiation did not alter the association between dose and translocation frequency. Sex, mother’s age, and trimester were not associated with number of translocations, nor did they interact with dose overall. Interactions with dose in the low-dose range could not be evaluated because of numerical instability.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

System efficiency and power assessment of the all-aqueous copper thermally regenerative ammonia battery

Thermally regenerative ammonia batteries (TRABs) use low-temperature (T < 100 °C) heat to provide stationary energy and power with higher power densities and efficiency relative to other waste heat devices. TRABs are an active area of research in waste heat devices, but currently there is little consensus on what aspect of the system is limiting TRAB performance and what maximum efficiencies are possible. Experiments and numerical models were used here to examine the sensitivity of the battery and distillation column in a TRAB system to key operating variables, thereby establishing practical limits and identifying focus areas for improving performance. Battery power was eight times more sensitive to ohmic losses than kinetic and mass transfer losses, regardless of the operating temperature, and the peak power density was simulated to be 18.8 mW cm –2 at 75 °C. Theoretical energy efficiency limits were defined for a series of ammonia concentrations and operating pressures, ranging from 5 – 12%, which is 2–3 times higher than previous experimental estimations. Atmospheric pressure column operation used a larger amount of waste heat compared to sub-atmospheric pressure. It is estimated that the volume of the battery would take up 9.2m 3 for every 1% of the power output of a natural gas turbine, but with realistic improvements to cell conductivity, the size would reduce to 2.5 m 3 . Finally, the results presented in this work will help streamline future development by focusing on minimizing ohmic losses and provide specific data for full system evaluation of future TRABs.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2021

Biermann battery magnetic fields in ICF capsules: Total magnetic flux generation

This paper focuses on the process of magnetic flux generation in inertial confinement fusion implosions. Hot-spots are shown to be dominated by fields generated during stagnation when the temperature and density gradients are largest. A scaling of hot-spot magnetic flux is derived and compared with simulations, revealing that perturbations with both larger amplitudes and higher mode numbers generate more magnetic flux. Furthermore, the model allows for greater understanding of which target designs will be susceptible to magnetohydrodynamic effects. For example, the model can be used to ascertain the time when most magnetic flux is generated. If generation is weighted more toward early times, then more high-mode magnetic field loops will be present. A hot-spot with no high-mode perturbations at time of peak neutron production can still contain significant magnetic flux on those scales. By assuming that magnetic flux is deposited at the hot-spot edge by Nernst advection, the model can be used to post-process radiation-hydrodynamics data to estimate magnetic field strengths and magnetizations.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Longitudinal space charge kick in Coherent Electron Cooling

In recent EIC Coherent electron Cooling (CeC) design, we adopted 591 MHz SRF LINAC to accelerate electron beam to certain energy(150 MeV, 54.1 MeV and 22.3 MeV). To reduce the energy spread caused by the RF curvature, a short bunch is preferred and results in high peak current. The longitudinal space charge kick will cause the energy spread increasing and lengthen the bunch length when through the R56 elements. This slippage of modulated microbunches may misalign with hadrons providing imprinting at kicker section. In this note, we will estimate this effect and discuss possible solution.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Recent Developments in Hydrogeologic Applications for Strain Tensor Analyses

Changes in fluid pressure deform porous media and this effect occurs in a variety of hydrogeologic processes, from the change in storage during pumping or injection to fluctuations in water levels caused by barometric pressure. We have developed instruments for measuring small strains in porous media, and we have used the resulting strain data to evaluate well testing, hydraulic fracturing, manual loading at the ground surface, and ambient hydrologic processes, like rainfall and evaporation. A particularly important application is the use of strain tensor data measured at shallow depths to analyze well tests or hydraulic fractures conducted at much greater depths. An early demonstration of this technique was conducted at the North Avant Field north of Tulsa, Oklahoma, where Pennsylvanian sandstone creates a confined aquifer and oil reservoir at a depth of 530m. We have showed that the strains caused by injecting into the aquifer could be measured at a depth of 30m and used to evaluate the properties of the aquifer. We recently expanded the array of strainmeters at the North Avant Field by deploying three more instruments at shallow depth (30m) along with a deep instrument at 520m depth in the winter, 2021. The deep instrument is deployed in shale caprock slightly above the aquifer. To our knowledge, the deep strainmeter at the North Avant Field is the deepest strainmeter ever deployed and this required refining methods originally developed for shallow deployments. The instrument was lowered to depth on oil field tubing and cemented in place using techniques and materials developed for use in oil wells. Optical fiber used to communicate with the instrument was cemented in the annulus on the outside of tubing. This is significant because the techniques we used could readily be extended to greater depth, suggesting that strainmeters can be deployed over a wide range of depths for monitoring critical subsurface processes. For example, it suggests that strainmeters could be deployed through the caprock to monitor for leaks from underlying CO2 storage reservoirs. The strainmeter array at the North Avant Field has been used to characterize deformation during a series of injection tests in the spring and summer, 2021. All the new strainmeters respond to pumping, and the strainmeters we installed earlier also responded. To our knowledge, this is the first application of well testing in a deep aquifer that was monitored by an array of strainmeters—our earlier work used strainmeters at a single location. We are currently analyzing the strain data using an analytical solution, a proxy-based Bayesian inversion algorithm, and other methods. Strainmeter data has also been used to characterize periodic pumping tests by us and Riley Blais. A periodically varying pumping rate causes both hydraulic head and strain signals that vary with the same period as the pumping. The peaks and troughs of the head in monitoring wells lag behind the peaks and troughs of the head in the pumping well, and this lag time increases with distance from the pumping well. The lag time of the pressure and the distance to the monitoring well can be used in a simple analysis to estimate the hydraulic diffusivity of the aquifer. The lag time determined from strain data can be used to estimate aquifer properties using the same analysis that works for the pressure only for strain data measured at particular locations. That is because the strain field in a confining unit advances upward, laterally and then downward even though the pressure in the underlying aquifer only advances laterally, according to our recent simulations. We have field data showing that a small periodic signal superimposed on an injection rate at the North Avant Field will create a periodic strain signal at shallow strainmeters. The field data and the recent simulations suggest that including a periodic component to injection or pumping and then monitoring the resulting strain signal could be a way to monitor the subsurface.

Murdoch, Larry↗

DOE OSTI2023

Recent Developments in Hydrogeologic Applications for Strain Tensor Analyses

Changes in fluid pressure deform porous media and this effect occurs in a variety of hydrogeologic processes, from the change in storage during pumping or injection to fluctuations in water levels caused by barometric pressure. We have developed instruments for measuring small strains in porous media, and we have used the resulting strain data to evaluate well testing, hydraulic fracturing, manual loading at the ground surface, and ambient hydrologic processes, like rainfall and evaporation. A particularly important application is the use of strain tensor data measured at shallow depths to analyze well tests or hydraulic fractures conducted at much greater depths. An early demonstration of this technique was conducted at the North Avant Field north of Tulsa, Oklahoma, where Pennsylvanian sandstone creates a confined aquifer and oil reservoir at a depth of 530m. We have showed that the strains caused by injecting into the aquifer could be measured at a depth of 30m and used to evaluate the properties of the aquifer. We recently expanded the array of strainmeters at the North Avant Field by deploying three more instruments at shallow depth (30m) along with a deep instrument at 520m depth in the winter, 2021. The deep instrument is deployed in shale caprock slightly above the aquifer. To our knowledge, the deep strainmeter at the North Avant Field is the deepest strainmeter ever deployed and this required refining methods originally developed for shallow deployments. The instrument was lowered to depth on oil field tubing and cemented in place using techniques and materials developed for use in oil wells. Optical fiber used to communicate with the instrument was cemented in the annulus on the outside of tubing. This is significant because the techniques we used could readily be extended to greater depth, suggesting that strainmeters can be deployed over a wide range of depths for monitoring critical subsurface processes. For example, it suggests that strainmeters could be deployed through the caprock to monitor for leaks from underlying CO2 storage reservoirs. The strainmeter array at the North Avant Field has been used to characterize deformation during a series of injection tests in the spring and summer, 2021. All the new strainmeters respond to pumping, and the strainmeters we installed earlier also responded. To our knowledge, this is the first application of well testing in a deep aquifer that was monitored by an array of strainmeters—our earlier work used strainmeters at a single location. We are currently analyzing the strain data using an analytical solution, a proxy-based Bayesian inversion algorithm, and other methods. Strainmeter data has also been used to characterize periodic pumping tests by us and Riley Blais. A periodically varying pumping rate causes both hydraulic head and strain signals that vary with the same period as the pumping. The peaks and troughs of the head in monitoring wells lag behind the peaks and troughs of the head in the pumping well, and this lag time increases with distance from the pumping well. The lag time of the pressure and the distance to the monitoring well can be used in a simple analysis to estimate the hydraulic diffusivity of the aquifer. The lag time determined from strain data can be used to estimate aquifer properties using the same analysis that works for the pressure only for strain data measured at particular locations. That is because the strain field in a confining unit advances upward, laterally and then downward even though the pressure in the underlying aquifer only advances laterally, according to our recent simulations. We have field data showing that a small periodic signal superimposed on an injection rate at the North Avant Field will create a periodic strain signal at shallow strainmeters. The field data and the recent simulations suggest that including a periodic component to injection or pumping and then monitoring the resulting strain signal could be a way to monitor the subsurface.

Murdoch, Larry↗

DOE OSTI2025

Particle Swarm Optimization of Dynamic Load Model Parameters in Large Systems

This paper considers two dynamic load models that are widely used in industry to account for induction motor behavior: CMLD and CLOD. These models must be parametrized for the specific utility system in a general way so that they can be used in planning studies and provide a conservative but realistic representation of load behavior. This study considers a measurement-based approach to tuning both models. The load modeling study compares the response of the tuned models to generic candidate models using historical events. This study considers one area-based subsystem to simplify the modeling approach and reduce the number of models required for simulations. Additionally, because dynamic load models often produce similar results for different sets of parameters, a sensitivity study was conducted to assess the parameter impacts on the voltage response. The sensitivity study covers the parameters that are tuned using event measurements. The process to estimate the parameters uses the particle-swarm optimization algorithm. Overall, the performance of the tuned model more accurately captures recovery voltage, delayed recovery, and settling voltage than its predecessor models while not being overly tuned so that it remains general for peak summer conditions.

dynamic load modeling↗

DOE OSTI2020

One Planet or Two Planets? The Ultra-sensitive Extreme-magnification Microlensing Event KMT-2019-BLG-1953

We present the analysis of a very high-magnification (A ∼ 900) microlensing event KMT-2019-BLG-1953. A single-lens single-source (1L1S) model appears to approximately delineate the observed light curve, but the residuals from the model exhibit small but obvious deviations in the peak region. A binary-lens (2L1S) model with a mass ratio of q ∼ 2 × 10{sup −3} improves the fits by Δχ {sup 2} = 181.8, indicating that the lens possesses a planetary companion. From additional modeling by introducing an extra planetary lens component (3L1S model) and an extra source companion (2L2S model), it is found that the residuals from the 2L1S model further diminish, but claiming these interpretations is difficult due to the weak signals with Δχ {sup 2} = 16.0 and 13.5 for the 3L1S and 2L2L models, respectively. From a Bayesian analysis, we estimate that the host of the planets has a mass of M{sub host}=0.31{sub −0.17}{sup +0.37} M{sub ⊙} and that the planetary system is located at a distance of D{sub L}=7.04{sub −1.33}{sup +1.10} kpc toward the Galactic center. The mass of the securely detected planet is M{sub p}=0.64{sub −0.35}{sup +0.76} M{sub J}. The signal of the potential second planet could have been confirmed if the peak of the light curve had been more densely observed by follow-up observations, and thus the event illustrates the need for intensive follow-up observations for very high-magnification events even in the current generation of high-cadence surveys.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Closure of Earth’s Global Seasonal Cycle of Energy Storage

Abstract The global seasonal cycle of energy in Earth’s climate system is quantified using observations and reanalyses. After removing long-term trends, net energy entering and exiting the climate system at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) should agree with the sum of energy entering and exiting the ocean, atmosphere, land, and ice over the course of an average year. Achieving such a balanced budget with observations has been challenging. Disagreements have been attributed previously to sparse observations in the high-latitude oceans. However, limiting the local vertical integration of new global ocean heat content estimates to the depth to which seasonal heat energy is stored, rather than integrating to 2000 m everywhere as done previously, allows closure of the global seasonal energy budget within statistical uncertainties. The seasonal cycle of energy storage is largest in the ocean, peaking in April because ocean area is largest in the Southern Hemisphere and the ocean’s thermal inertia causes a lag with respect to the austral summer solstice. Seasonal cycles in energy storage in the atmosphere and land are smaller, but peak in July and September, respectively, because there is more land in the Northern Hemisphere, and the land has more thermal inertia than the atmosphere. Global seasonal energy storage by ice is small, so the atmosphere and land partially offset ocean energy storage in the global integral, with their sum matching time-integrated net global TOA energy fluxes over the seasonal cycle within uncertainties, and both peaking in April.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Quantification of storage required for preserving frequency security in wind‐integrated systems

Abstract The penetration of wind power generation into the power grid has been accelerated in recent times due to the aggressive emission targets set by governments and other regulatory authorities. Although wind power has the advantage of being environment‐friendly, wind as a resource is intermittent in nature. In addition, wind power contributes little inertia to the system as most wind turbines are connected to the grid via power electronic converters. These negative aspects of wind power pose serious challenges to the frequency security of power systems as penetration increases. In this work, an approach is proposed where an energy storage system (ESS) is used to mitigate frequency security issues of wind‐integrated systems. ESSs are well equipped to supply virtual inertia to the grid due to their fast‐acting nature, thus replenishing some of the energy storage capability of displaced inertial generation. In this work, a probabilistic approach is proposed to estimate the amount of inertia required by a system to ensure frequency security. Reduction in total system inertia due to the displacement of conventional synchronous generation by wind power generation is considered in this approach, while also taking into account the loss of inertia due to forced outages of conventional units. Monte Carlo simulation is employed for implementing the probabilistic estimation of system inertia. An ESS is then sized appropriately, using the system swing equation, to compensate for the lost inertia. The uncertainty associated with wind energy is modeled into the framework using an autoregressive moving average technique. Effects of increasing the system peak load and changing the wind profile on the expected system inertia are studied to illustrate various factors that might affect system frequency security. The proposed method is validated using the IEEE 39‐bus test system.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Methods to determine the radiated power in SPI-mitigated disruptions in JET

Here we present techniques for evaluating the radiated power in JET disruptions. Disrupting plasmas are shown to have non-axisymmetric radiation profiles, motivating the re-evaluation of the standard techniques for calculating the total radiated power at JET using bolometry. Four single-channel bolometers at different toroidal locations are exploited to quantify the radiation asymmetry. Toroidal radiation peaking factors integrated over the entire disruption of up to 1.5 have been observed when varying the quantity of neon in pellets used in disruptions mitigated by shattered pellet injection. Using synthetic bolometer diagnostics developed with the Cherab spectroscopy modeling framework, we can estimate the systematic error on total power calculations for relevant radiation profiles and improve estimates of the total radiated power. We show that the component of the systematic error on the total power due to the poloidal radiation profile can be reduced from 70% to 10% with suitable assumptions about the structure of the poloidal profile.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2020

Winners are not keepers: Characterizing household engagement, gains, and energy patterns in demand response using machine learning in the United States

Demand-response programs can help utilities manage rapidly evolving electric grids, but these programs are subject to the complexities of human behavior. This paper explores a novel method for uncovering heterogeneity in households. In this work, we use a machine-learning method known as a Conditional Inference Tree (c-tree) algorithm to categorize households based on their energy behavior characteristics collected via smart meters, and explore how this translates through into heterogeneity in their real-world response to a DR program. Using data from randomized controlled trial, we generate estimates of the changes in energy use caused by the program within each household group. Our results show that the c-tree approach differentiates households by their energy-use characteristics in a way that increases the spread in enrollment rates and critical peak reduction among household groups, compared with the spreads achieved via several conventional segmentation methods. Thus, the c-tree analysis enables the most tailored targeting of major potential energy savers and could provide the greatest increase in cost-effectiveness of household recruitment into DR programs. Our results also offer fresh insights into the relationships between household energy behavior characteristics – such as peak energy use and “structural winningness” (the ability to save money under a DR program without changing energy-use behaviors) – and household decisions about enrolling in DR programs and reducing energy use. Our research also demonstrates the potential of smart meter data, combined with machine learning and econometric methods, to provide significant value to utilities, program implementers, researchers, and other stakeholders.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2025

Development of carbon nanosensor for vinpocetine at zinc oxide modified carbon matrix with anionic surfactant for clinical application

A nano-level sensing method was formulated for the trace-level detection and determination of vinpocetine (VIN) at a zinc oxide nanomaterial-based carbon matrix with immobilised anionic surfactant sodium dodecyl sulfate (ZnO-SDS/CPE) using cyclic voltammetry (CV) and square wave voltammetry (SWV) approaches. The catalytic properties of ZnO impact the electron rate of VIN activity, resulting in a threefold increase in the VIN peak response with the ZnO-SDS-modified sensor. Here, the effects of several factors, including scan rate, pH, accumulation length, modifier amount, and concentration, were investigated on the VIN peak current. The electro-oxidation of VIN by pH study involves one proton and one electron. The CV method also investigated the effect of scan rate. The charge transfer coefficient (α) is obtained to be 0.58, and the heterogeneous rate constant (k°) is estimated to be 4.46 s⁻¹. The concentration effect of VIN was studied using the SWV method. Specifically, the SWV methodology achieved the lowest detection limit compared to previously published approaches, with estimated values of the Limit of Detection (LOD) and Limit of Quantification (LOQ) being 2.2 × 10⁻⁸ M and 7.7 × 10⁻⁸ M, respectively. The trace level of VIN in tablet and urine samples was determined using the modified sensor. Moreover, the sensor demonstrates particular reproducibility and long-term stability, making it suitable for real-time applications.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗