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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 361 records · Page 20
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Agent-Based Model of Combined Community- and Jail-Based Take-Home Naloxone Distribution

Importance Opioid-related overdose accounts for almost 80 000 deaths annually across the US. People who use drugs leaving jails are at particularly high risk for opioid-related overdose and may benefit from take-home naloxone (THN) distribution. Objective To estimate the population impact of THN distribution at jail release to reverse opioid-related overdose among people with opioid use disorders. Design, Setting, and Participants This study developed the agent-based Justice-Community Circulation Model (JCCM) to model a synthetic population of individuals with and without a history of opioid use. Epidemiological data from 2014 to 2020 for Cook County, Illinois, were used to identify parameters pertinent to the synthetic population. Twenty-seven experimental scenarios were examined to capture diverse strategies of THN distribution and use. Sensitivity analysis was performed to identify critical mediating and moderating variables associated with population impact and a proxy metric for cost-effectiveness (ie, the direct costs of THN kits distributed per death averted). Data were analyzed between February 2022 and March 2024. Intervention Modeled interventions included 3 THN distribution channels: community facilities and practitioners; jail, at release; and social network or peers of persons released from jail. Main Outcomes and Measures The primary outcome was the percentage of opioid-related overdose deaths averted with THN in the modeled population relative to a baseline scenario with no intervention. Results Take-home naloxone distribution at jail release had the highest median (IQR) percentage of averted deaths at 11.70% (6.57%-15.75%). The probability of bystander presence at an opioid overdose showed the greatest proportional contribution (27.15%) to the variance in deaths averted in persons released from jail. The estimated costs of distributed THN kits were less than $\$$15 000 per averted death in all 27 scenarios. Conclusions and Relevance This study found that THN distribution at jail release is an economical and feasible approach to substantially reducing opioid-related overdose mortality. Training and preparation of proficient and willing bystanders are central factors in reaching the full potential of this intervention.

Tatara, Eric [Argonne National Laboratory (ANL), A↗
DOE OSTI2020

Spatially Resolved Performance Analysis for Perovskite Solar Cells

This review explores the current state of the art in spatially resolved characterization of mixed-halide perovskite solar cells. As the size of perovskite cells and modules continues to grow, quantification of the spatial distribution of key cell parameters will become increasingly valuable in predicting ultimate cell-level performance and tracking process homogeneity. Here, both high resolution microscopic approaches using scanning techniques and camera-based methods for full-area cell and/or module analysis are discussed. The value of this local data in predicting performance losses at the cell level is particularly emphasized. Measurable physical parameters sensitive to losses of voltage, current, fill factor, and efficiency are discussed together with selected experimental results. It is demonstrated that a combination of spatially resolved cell parameter mapping/imaging can be used to quantitatively discriminate various loss contributions at high resolution. The impact and control of inhomogeneities become particularly important when upscaling from small devices to large formats compatible with industrial mass production.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

MHD stability of negative triangularity DIII-D plasmas

Abstract Negative triangularity (NT) experiments in DIII-D point to an emergent reactor scenario free of sawteeth, endowed with benign, nondisruptive n = 2 tearing modes, which experience q min ⩾ 1 similar to the positive triangularity hybrid scenario. Plasmas exhibiting this behavior attain β N > 3 , high enough to reconsider long held views of NT stability. Ideal MHD and tearing stability analysis of well-diagnosed equilibrium reconstructions of experimental hybrid-like plasmas predict that among shape parameters, MHD stability limits are only sensitive to average triangularity. Operation is predicted to be possible at β N relevant to upcoming tokamaks and commercial NT reactors.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Core Design Optimization of the Westinghouse Lead Fast Reactor

Westinghouse is pursuing an advanced Nuclear Power Plant design based on Lead Fast Reactor (LFR) technology for global commercialization. To achieve an optimal combination of key attributes, such as safety, sustainability, and economic competitiveness, Westinghouse and ANL partnered in developing and applying a formalized core design optimization strategy. An LFR analysis workflow was developed to automate a suite of reactor physics, fuels performance, safety, and economics simulations on a selected LFR concept. The workflow streamlines analysis of a wide range of LFR designs with different dimensions and fuel types to assess their viability and economic performance, significantly reducing human processing time and risks of processing errors. The LFR optimization exercise was defined, resulting in selection of the design constraints (geometric, neutronics, thermo-mechanical, safety, thermal-hydraulics, and economics) and performance metrics researched (minimization of both the fuels LCOE and the first core inventory cost). A total of 14 varied design parameters were considered, including assembly dimensions, coolant temperature, and enrichment distribution throughout the core. The LFR analysis workflow was connected to DAKOTA for sensitivity and optimization analyses. Due to the extremely large size of the potential LFR optimization solution space relative to the computing time required to characterize one LFR solution, a multi-stage optimization approach was proposed to breakdown the problem into several stages with more reasonable sizes. This optimization approach enabled finding various viable core solutions with different cost tradeoffs that were considered by Westinghouse and justify selection of a smaller core with multi-batch 2-year cycle length.

Stauff, Nicolas E.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Uncertainty Quantification in High-Low Dynamic System Coupling using RAVEN and TRANSFORM

This work demonstrates new functionality and applications stemming from the development of high-fidelity to low-fidelity (high-low) coupling for system simulations and to further explore the capabilities of the Risk Analysis Virtual Environment (RAVEN) in the performance of uncertainty quantification in this kind of high-low coupled system models. The work builds from previous work on high-low coupling that utilized COBRA-TF (CTF), the high-fidelity subchannel analysis code, with a low fidelity model built in ORNL’s TRANSFORM, the system analysis code, utilizing the Functional Mock-Up Interface (FMI). Steady-state and transient analysis examples using the high/low coupled models generated from CTF and TRANSFORM/FMI are investigated. The workflows for both steady-state and transient coupled simulations are described. A steady-state parameter sweep and uncertainty analysis of the primary flow rates and reactor power are demonstrated. Likewise, a transient pump trip and power ramp sensitivity studies are also demonstrated. This work elucidates some of the potential benefits and future needs of using RAVEN for high/low system coupling analysis of energy systems. It also shows some of the difficulties that can be encountered in coupling system simulations.

Williams, Wesley↗
DOE OSTI2024

Sensitivity analysis, surrogate modeling, and optimization of pebble-bed reactors considering normal and accident conditions

This research provides a valuable tool that streamlines the optimization process while significantly increasing its accuracy. This study creates a robust framework for reactor design optimization by incorporating comprehensive modeling using the Comprehensive Reactor Analysis Bundle, or BlueCRAB, within the Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE). BlueCRAB is the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission's code suite for non-light water reactor analysis and includes the Griffin, Pronghorn, and Bison applications. This not only improves the efficiency of the optimization process but also enhances the reliability of the results. Such a tool is essential for advancing the state-of-the-art in pebble-bed reactor technology and is critical for achieving the goals of Generation IV reactors, which aim for safe, sustainable, and economically viable nuclear energy solutions. This work presents and applies this workflow on pebble-bed reactors while considering both normal and off-normal conditions. A representative gas-cooled pebble-bed reactor at equilibrium core conditions serves as the nominal design specification for normal operation and is based on previous research. The depressurized loss-of-forced-cooling accident is deployed for off-normal conditions in this work. After defining design-related parameters and quantities of interest regarding reactor safety and performance, this multiphysics model is sampled using the MOOSE stochastic tools module. The result is a comprehensive dataset of configurations, enabling sensitivity analysis and the generation of surrogate models. Subsequently, the dataset and surrogate models are employed in two optimization studies aimed at maximizing fuel utilization and economic profit while adhering to safety and operational constraints. Performing the optimization process with fuel utilization as the metric leads to an improvement of approximately 10%, compared to engineering-judgment-based nominal conditions. The optimization on economic profit leads to an estimated increase of ~300 million USD over the lifetime of the reactor.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Sensitivity analysis of the technical and economic feasibility of converter-interfaced CHP System

The adoption of small-to-medium sized (1MW~20MW) combined heat and power (CHP) system is lagging, especially in industrial and commercial applications. Our prior research has proved that interfacing CHP with grid-ready converters can increase its economic value and technical benefits; this paper is focused on investigating the critical parameters impacting profitability of converter-interfaced CHP, including CHP sizing scenario, energy price, generator cost, converter cost, voltage support price, converter to engine size ratio and interconnection delay. An automatic toolkit for evaluating CHP return on investment (ROI) is developed to enhance the computation capability and efficiency. Based on varying the value of critical parameters, 975 use cases are analyzed. Results show that the profitability of converter-interfaced CHP over directly-coupled CHP is more sensitive to energy price, delays in interconnection process, converter cost and much less to generator cost or voltage support price.

converter, CHP, ROI, economic feasibility, sensiti↗
DOE OSTI2022

Sensitivity Analysis of Fluid–Fluid Interfacial Area, Phase Saturation and Phase Connectivity on Relative Permeability Estimation Using Machine Learning Algorithms

Recent studies have shown that relative permeability can be modeled as a state function which is independent of flow direction and dependent upon phase saturation (S), phase connectivity (X), and fluid–fluid interfacial area (A). This study evaluates the impact of each of the three state parameters (S, X, and A) in the estimation of relative permeability. The relative importance of the three state parameters in four separate quadrants of S-X-A space was evaluated using a machine learning algorithm (out-of-bag predictor importance method). The results show that relative permeability is sensitive to all the three parameters, S, X, and A, with varying magnitudes in each of the four quadrants at a constant value of wettability. We observe that the wetting-phase relative permeability is most sensitive to saturation, while the non-wetting phase is most sensitive to phase connectivity. Although the least important, fluid–fluid interfacial area is still important to make the relative permeability a more exact state function.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2021

Stochastic simulations of temporally and spatially variable Fe cycling within a floodplain aquifer

This data package contains model input and output files for local and global sensitivity analysis (SA) of a reactive transport model simulating redox cycling within a floodplain aquifer. The reaction network is implemented in CrunchFlow and focuses on spatially and temporally heterogeneous Fe cycling, though it contains several other species and redox pathways (37 aqueous species and 7 minerals in total). The package contains data from 600 Monte Carlo simulations (for global SA) and 104 one-at-a-time simulations (for local SA). It includes all input files required to run the CrunchFlow model, as well as limited model output – .csv files containing time series of primary species concentrations at 21 grid cells within the domain. These time series files contain the following species: H+, CO32-, SO42-, Cl-, Ca2+, Mg2+, Na+, K+, Fe(II), Fe(III), HS-, CH3COO-, O2(aq), S(aq), and Br-.These data were used to demonstrate the application of a novel form of global SA, distance-based generalized sensitivity analysis (DGSA) to a reactive transport model. The 2D model simulates the export of reduced species from pockets of fine-grained, organic-rich sediments embedded in a coarse sand aquifer. Stochastic simulations jointly varied 17 key model input parameters across several orders of magnitude, including the spatial variability of each parameter. DGSA on the model results reveal that the amplitude and variability of exported Fe(II) are most sensitive to the interaction between sand permeability and individual reaction rates. By contrast, the propagation of reducing conditions downgradient from the fine-grained lenses depends most heavily on the rate of dissolved organic carbon and sulfate release from the fines.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Pervaporative Dehydration of 2,3-Butanediol by Dense Poly(vinylidene fluoride) Hollow Fiber Membranes: Parameter Estimation, Process Design, and Technoeconomic Evaluation under Uncertainty

Pervaporation, combined with other separation processes, can effectively remove water from fermentation product streams, making it highly suitable for purifying alcohols like 2,3-butanediol (BDO). In this study, a dense poly(vinylidene fluoride) (PVDF) hollow fiber membrane module prototype was fabricated for BDO dehydration, achieving >0.2 LMH total flux and >95% BDO rejection. With a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach, Bayesian inference was used to quantify the uncertainty of the permeance parameters. A membrane cascade model was developed to scale up a process that purifies a preconcentrated BDO feed (70 wt %) to high purity (90 wt %). Through propagation of the uncertainty of the parameters and sensitivity analyses of the process variables, a cascade design was recommended. Despite data and model limitations, the framework enabled a reliable system analysis and economic evaluation, validated through tight confidence intervals in key process metrics, establishing the foundation for future applications of Bayesian methods in membrane-based processes.

Animal feed↗
DOE OSTI2023

A Generalization of Threshold-Based and Probability-Based Models of Information Diffusion

Diffusion of information through complex networks is of interest in studies such as propagation prediction and influence maximization, both of which have applications in viral marketing and rumor controlling. There are a variety of information diffusion models, all of which simulate the adoption and spread of information over time. However, there is a lack of understanding of whether, despite their conceptual differences, these models represent the same underlying generative structures. For instance, if two different models utilize different conceptual mechanisms, but generate the same results, does the choice of model matter? A classification of diffusion of information models is developed based on the neighbor knowledge of the model infection requirement and the stochasticity of the model. This classification allows for the identification of models that fall into each respective category. The study involves the analysis of the following agent-based models on directed scale-free networks: (1) a linear absolute threshold model (LATM), (2) a linear fractional threshold model (LTFM), (3) the independent cascade model (ICM), (4) Bass-Rand-Rust model (BRRM) (5) a stochastic linear absolute threshold model (SLATM) (6) a stochastic fractional threshold model (SLFTM), and (7) Dodds–Watts model (DWM). Through the execution of simulations and analysis of the experimental results, the distinctive properties of each model are identified. Our analysis reveals that similarity in conceptual design does not imply similarity in behavior concerning speed, final state of nodes and edges, and sensitivity to parameters. Therefore, we highlight the importance of considering the unique behavioral characteristics of each model when selecting a suitable information diffusion model for a particular application.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Hypercomplex Automatic Differentiation in the Eulerian Hydrocode PAGOSA

Enabling the computation of partial derivatives or sensitivities in production hydrocodes is beneficial for design, optimization, sensitivity analysis, and uncertainty quantification. Traditional finite difference approximations of these sensitivities are inefficient since convergence studies of the step size is required for each parameter of interest. For these reasons, HYPercomplex Automatic Differentiation (HYPAD) was implemented in the Eulerian hydrocode PAGOSA. HYPAD is analogous to forward-mode automatic differentiation except hypercomplex numbers (numbers with multiple imaginary parts) are used instead of dual numbers. Accurate partial derivatives can be computed of all state variables with respect to multiple input variables in a single run. The method was implemented using operator overloading to handle hypercomplex algebra. HYPAD was demonstrated and verified on Sod’s shock tube problem to compute derivatives of the state variables with respect to a material parameter, initial conditions, and geometry.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Gaussian Process Optimization of Sensitivity-Based Similarity Metrics between New Nuclear Applications and New/Existing Benchmarks

Confidently designing safe, new nuclear criticality experiments requires expert judgement, which could take years of experience. Sensitivity/uncertainty (S/U) analysis can be utilized by less experienced individuals to conservatively estimate uncertainties in important parameters, such as k eff , in newly proposed nuclear applications. This type of analysis relies on matching new nuclear applications with existing benchmark experiments. The Whisper-1.1 software package included in MCNP6.2 ®1 contains more than 1,100 International Criticality Safety Benchmark Evaluation Project (ICSBEP) benchmarks. These benchmarks however rarely match new nuclear applications. The number of benchmarks available to match a given set of materials or geometric configurations varies significantly. Furthermore, recently performed benchmark experiments may not have had enough time to be properly documented and published. Benchmarks are vital for determining the accuracy of nuclear data and can assist nuclear physics and evaluators in improving nuclear data libraries. Exhaustively exploring the parameter space using simulations with software such as MCNP is too computationally expensive. In this work, Gaussian process optimization was implemented to reduce the number of simulations needed for optimization over multiple parameters. This optimization scheme was designed to selectively generate new benchmarks with high sensitivity-based similarity metrics to user-defined nuclear applications. Two benchmark models of spherically nested shells containing plutonium, uranium, tantalum, and water were used in the optimization to match an application containing plutonium plates, stacked in a tantalum reflector, surrounded by water.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Quantifying the Sensitive Parameters of the New Energy Vehicles in China

To achieve carbon neutrality by 2060, the Chinese government has put effort into decarbonizing the transportation sector. Consequently, China elaborated a new energy vehicle strategy promoting the production of electric vehicles and expanding into hydrogen (H2) vehicle technologies including fuel cell electric vehicles and H2 internal combustion engine vehicles. The Transportation Energy Analysis Model (TEAM) projects the market penetration as well as energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions in China up to 2050. By integrating the Monte Carlo simulation, this study tests the robustness of TEAM and investigates the key parameters that will shape passenger vehicle sales and emissions in the future. The results show that fuel cell cost, H2 price, and battery cost are the most sensitive parameters for H2 vehicle technologies.

Saafi, Mohamed Ali↗
DOE OSTI2024

Uncertainty Quantification and Sensitivity Analysis of Non-Nuclear Advanced Controls Testbed Reactor Mockup

The research presented in this report describes our progress in applying stochastic methods and uncertainty quantification, parametric study, and variance-based sensitivity analysis (also known as Sobol sensitivity analysis) to a full-core model of a nuclear thermal propulsion (NTP) system simulated with Griffin, with the goal of developing a reduced order (surrogate) model which can be rapidly sampled while perturbing multiple input parameters. In this NTP system, reactivity and power feedback affect the rotation of control drums, which are controlled by a hybrid proportional, integral and derivative (PID) controller, actuated by the power demand and reactivity feedback from the numerical model. This model uses reactor kinetic feedback (mean generation time and $\beta$ from a transient Griffin simulation executed with the improved quasi-static method to provide the kinetic parameters) as inputs to functions which control the CD rotation angle. Using a number of stochastic method approaches, we developed a dual purpose training-surrogate model of the NTP system using polynomial regression. The trained model can be rapidly sampled while simultaneously perturbing various input parameters of the model, such as coefficients on the PID control, or temperature (directly affect the neutron cross section). The surrogate model delivers accurate results orders-of-magnitude faster (minutes, not days) than the base model. Once the base model has been trained, distributions of the uncertain parameters can be changed at will to investigate the effects of perturbing multiple inputs and their effect on the output. For example, coefficients used in the PID control system may vary due to some physical interference, or there may be uncertainty in the temperature of the neutron cross sections in various regions of the reactor. A distribution can be placed on these parameters and operational boundaries can be determined. The goal of this work is to support development of an advanced control system to operate CDs in a functioning NTP system.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Reanalysis of Experimental Determinations of Polariton-Polariton Interactions in Microcavities

The polariton-polariton interaction strength is an important parameter for all kinds of applications using the nonlinear properties of polaritons, such as optical switching and single-photon blockade devices. In this paper, we review and compare the results of a series of experiments on polariton-polariton interactions in GaAs/AlxGa1-xAs microcavity polariton structures and present an updated analysis of these experiments. We show that not just the energy shift of the spectral lines but also the results of measurements sensitive to the polariton scattering rate are important for the calibration of the interaction parameter at low excitation density. We find that when adjustments are made to correct for recent understanding of the experiments, the value of the interaction parameter at low density is lower than previous reported, but still significantly higher than theoretically predicted.

CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND SU↗
DOE OSTI2021

Local and Global Sensitivity Analysis of a Reactive Transport Model Simulating Floodplain Redox Cycling

Reactive transport models (RTMs) are essential tools that simulate the coupling of advective, diffusive, and reactive processes in the subsurface, but their complexity makes them difficult to understand, develop and improve without accompanying statistical analyses. Although global sensitivity analysis (SA) can address these issues, the computational cost associated with most global SA techniques limits their use with RTMs. In this study, we apply distance-based generalized sensitivity analysis (DGSA), a novel and computationally efficient method of global SA, to a floodplain-scale RTM and compare DGSA results to those from local SA. Our test case focuses on the impact of 17 uncertain environmental parameters on spatially and temporally variable redox conditions within a floodplain aquifer. The input parameters considered include flow and diffusion rates, geochemical reaction rates, and the spatial distribution of sediment facies. Sensitivity was evaluated for three distinct components of the model response, encompassing both multidimensional and categorical output. Parameter rankings differ between local SA and DGSA, due to nonlinear effects of individual parameters and interaction effects between parameters. DGSA results show that fluid residence time, which is controlled by aquifer permeability, generally exerts a stronger control on redox conditions than do geochemical reaction rates. Sensitivity indices also demonstrate that sulfate reduction is key for establishing and maintaining reducing conditions throughout the aquifer. Furthermore, these results provide insights into the key drivers of heterogeneous redox processes within floodplain aquifers, as well as the main sources of uncertainty when modeling complex subsurface systems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Polynomial Chaos Surrogate Construction for Random Fields with Parametric Uncertainty

Engineering and applied science rely on computational experiments to rigorously study physical systems. The mathematical models used to probe these systems are highly complex, and sampling-intensive studies often require prohibitively many simulations for acceptable accuracy. Surrogate models provide a means of circumventing the high computational expense of sampling such complex models. In particular, polynomial chaos expansions (PCEs) have been successfully used for uncertainty quantification studies of deterministic models where the dominant source of uncertainty is parametric. We discuss an extension to conventional PCE surrogate modeling to enable surrogate construction for stochastic computational models that have intrinsic noise in addition to parametric uncertainty. We develop a PCE surrogate on a joint space of intrinsic and parametric uncertainty, enabled by Rosenblatt transformations, which are evaluated via kernel density estimation of the associated conditional cumulative distributions. Furthermore, we extend the construction to random field data via the Karhunen–Loève expansion. We then take advantage of closed-form solutions for computing PCE Sobol indices to perform a global sensitivity analysis of the model which quantifies the intrinsic noise contribution to the overall model output variance. Additionally, the resulting joint PCE is generative in the sense that it allows generating random realizations at any input parameter setting that are statistically approximately equivalent to realizations from the underlying stochastic model. The method is demonstrated on a chemical catalysis example model and a synthetic example controlled by a parameter that enables a switch from unimodal to bimodal response distributions.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗