Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “parameter sampling”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 361 records · Page 20

Influence of radiative recombination on the minority-carrier transport in direct band-gap semiconductors

When a semiconductor sample is irradiated by means of an external source, emitting photons or electrons, excess carriers are produced which distribute themselves throughout the sample. One of the parameters which determine the distribution of the carriers is the surface recombination velocity. The present investigation is concerned with the recombination lifetime tau. The predominant mechanism for recombination in wide band-gap semiconductors is described by the Shockley-Read-Hall (SRH) theory. The transport equations are derived for free carriers and the radiation field. The considered theory is applied to a semiinfinite, one-dimensional semiconductor slab irradiated by light of a given frequency. Some numerical considerations based on n-type GaAs are presented. Attention is given to a determination of the radiation transmitted through the surface of the sample.

Von Roos, O.↗

Probing multiscale dissolution dynamics in natural rocks through microfluidics and compositional analysis

Mineral dissolution significantly impacts many geological systems. Carbon released by diagenesis, carbon sequestration, and acid injection are examples where geochemical reactions, fluid flow, and solute transport are strongly coupled. The complexity in these systems involves interplay between various mechanisms that operate at timescales ranging from microseconds to years. Current experimental techniques characterize dissolution processes using static images that are acquired with long measurement times and/or low spatial resolution. These limitations prevent direct observation of how dissolution reactions progress within an intact rock with spatially heterogeneous mineralogy and morphology. We utilize microfluidic cells embedded with thin rock samples to visualize dissolution with significant temporal resolution (100 ms) in a large observation window (3 × 3 mm). Here we injected acidic fluid into eight shale samples ranging from 8 to 86 wt % carbonate. The pre- and postreaction microstructures are characterized at the scale of pores (0.1 to 1 µm) and fractures (1 to 1,000 µm). We observe that nonreactive particle exposure, fracture morphology, and loss of rock strength are strongly dependent on both the relative volume of reactive grains and their distribution. Time-resolved images of the rock unveil the spatiotemporal dynamics of dissolution, including two-phase flow effects in real time and illustrate the changes in the fracture interface across the range of compositions. Moreover, the dynamical data provide an approach for characterizing reactivity parameters of natural heterogeneous samples when porous media effects are not negligible. The platform and workflow provide real-time characterization of geochemical reactions and inform various subsurface engineering processes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

The eROSITA Final Equatorial-Depth Survey (eFEDS): The AGN catalog and its X-ray spectral properties

The eROSITA Final Equatorial Depth Survey (eFEDS), observed with eROSITA ahead of its planned 4-yr all-sky survey, is the largest contiguous-field X-ray survey at present. It yielded a large sample of X-ray sources with very rich multiband photometric and spectroscopic coverage. We present here the eFEDS active galactic nuclei (AGN) catalog and the eROSITA X-ray spectral properties of the eFEDS sources. Using a Bayesian method, we performed a systematic X-ray spectral analysis for all the eFEDS sources. We adopted multiple spectral models, including single-component power-law or hot-plasma models and double-component models of a power law plus soft excess. We investigated the capacity of eROSITA X-ray spectra for constraining AGN spectral shapes through a detailed analysis of the posterior parameter probability distribution functions. Hierarchical Bayesian modeling was used to recover the spectral parameter distribution of the sample. The source fluxes and luminosities were measured from the posterior of the spectral fitting. The eFEDS AGN catalog (22 079 sources) comprises ~80% of the eFEDS point sources. Despite a large number of faint sources, our spectral fitting provides reasonable measurements of spectral shapes and intrinsic luminosities for a majority of the sources. Because of sample selection bias, this AGN catalog is dominated by X-ray unobscured sources, with an obscured (logN H > 21.5) fraction of 8%; the power-law emission of the hot corona is also relatively soft, with a typical slope of 2.0. For type-I AGN, the X-ray emission is well correlated with the UV emission with the usual anticorrelation between the X-ray to UV spectral slope α OX and the UV luminosity. The X-ray spectral properties measured with various models are presented for all the eFEDS sources.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Mechanisms of Interfacial Mixing in the Blown Powder Deposition of Inconel 625 to Copper Alloy for Liquid Rocket Engine Applications

There is an increasing need for functional materials to support high heat flux applications and optimize weight by using bimetallic additive manufacturing (AM). While one promising fabrication technology is the use of blown powder directed energy deposition (DED) AM, challenges remain with bi-metallic combinations. Prominent among these challenges is the need to understand mixing of materials at the bimetallic interface for forming stronger, more durable and reliable joints to extend the versatility of AM into critical applications. One application is the manufacturing of combustion chambers with copper-alloy liners and Superalloy structural jackets. In this application, material combinations are selected for effective heat dissipation, using copper, and retention of strength at high temperatures using Inconel 625. Currently, the dominant problem with this configuration is the highly variable strength of the interface and its correlation with deposition parameters. In this study, samples were fabricated at several vendors with Inconel 625 deposited onto wrought C-18150 (Cu-Cr-Zr) to form a bimetallic interface. Characterization of the interfaces were achieved through optical and electron microscopy, mechanical testing of mini tensile specimens, and electron dispersion spectroscopy to understand diffusion and bulk mixing behaviors at the joint. A theoretical framework was constructed in the context of solidification and mixing mechanisms to explain the resulting differences in the interface. This qualitative approach utilized a fluid dynamics perspective to sum the order of magnitudes of the various acting forces on the weld pool during deposition to predict convection trends based off known parameters. The predicted trends for each vendor are compared to obtain a better understanding of how mixing in the molten pool varied based on deposition parameters.

Additive Manufacturing↗

Efficient Calibration of Expensive Computational Models

Accounting for uncertainty when calibrating expensive computational models is a common challenge faced by scientists and engineers. Often Bayesian techniques are adopted to estimate a probability density function over the model parameters given noisy empirical data. The methods used to perform this type of probabilistic calibration are computationally prohibitive in that they require a large number of evaluations of the expensive model. In these cases, surrogate modeling -- that is, using a fast-to-evaluate, lower fidelity stand-in for the original computational model -- may be the only option to alleviate this computational burden. However, the upfront cost of generating training data to build a surrogate model can itself be expensive. As such, it is important to be judicious when selecting training points at which the full-fidelity model is evaluated. Here, an active learning approach is proposed that enables efficient selection of training points using approximate samples of the calibrated parameter probability density function. In this way, the training points can be concentrated in regions where the calibration algorithm requires high model accuracy.

active learning↗

A Deterministic Self-Organizing Map Approach and its Application on Satellite Data based Cloud Type Classification

A self-organizing map (SOM) is a type of competitive artificial neural network, which projects the high dimensional input space of the training samples into a low dimensional space with the topology relations preserved. This makes SOMs supportive of organizing and visualizing complex data sets and have been pervasively used among numerous disciplines with different applications. Notwithstanding its wide applications, the self-organizing map is perplexed by its inherent randomness, which produces dissimilar SOM patterns even when being trained on identical training samples with the same parameters every time, and thus causes usability concerns for other domain practitioners and precludes more potential users from exploring SOM based applications in a broader spectrum. Motivated by this practical concern, we propose a deterministic approach as a supplement to the standard self-organizing map. In accordance with the theoretical design, the experimental results with satellite cloud data demonstrate the effective and efficient organization as well as simplification capabilities of the proposed approach.

Initialization method↗

Cosmic Inference: Constraining Parameters with Observations and a Highly Limited Number of Simulations

We look at cosmological probes that pose an inverse problem where the measurement result is obtained through observations, and the objective is to infer values of model parameters that characterize the underlying physical system-our universe, from these observations and theoretical forward-modeling. The only way to accurately forward-model physical behavior on small scales is via expensive numerical simulations, which are further “emulated” due to their high cost. Emulators are commonly built with a set of simulations covering the parameter space with Latin hypercube sampling and an interpolation procedure; the aim is to establish an approximately constant prediction error across the hypercube. In this paper, we provide a description of a novel statistical framework for obtaining accurate parameter constraints. The proposed framework uses multi-output Gaussian process emulators that are adaptively constructed using Bayesian optimization methods with the goal of maintaining a low emulation error in the region of the hypercube preferred by the observational data. In this paper, we compare several approaches for constructing multi-output emulators that enable us to take possible inter-output correlations into account while maintaining the efficiency needed for inference. Using a Lyα forest flux power spectrum, we demonstrate that our adaptive approach requires considerably fewer-by a factor of a few in the Lyα P(k) case considered here-simulations compared to the emulation based on Latin hypercube sampling, and that the method is more robust in reconstructing parameters and their Bayesian credible intervals.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Quantifying Subsurface Biogeochemical Variability in a High Altitude Watershed During Winter Isolation

Shallow subsurface microbial and geochemical processes in watersheds are dynamic and responsive to seasonal and long-term environmental change. At high elevation or latitude, such changes may occur during winter months when normal sampling is impossible, impractical, unsafe, or may actually alter the processes being studied. Yet accurate modeling of biogeochemical parameters in these environments requires sampling that can capture events and persistent cold climate trends. Gaps in current models exist where data have not been collected during extended snow- or ice-covered periods. The goals of our exploratory study were to examine the biogeochemical processes occurring in a well-studied high altitude watershed during winter when the system is largely inaccessible. We tested the hypothesis that during snow cover in the East River (ER) watershed, episodic excursions of microbial community structure and biogeochemical processes and concentrations fluctuated from values extrapolated from pre- and post-snow time periods. Through our research we identified previously unresolved subsurface-surface transport phenomena and a heretofore under-appreciated methane cycle occurring during wintertime months, thus providing valuable insight into watershed processes. Our research showed that autonomous sampling techniques, first used in marine systems, is extremely versatile and can be adapted for use in harsh continental settings to examine temporal changes in freshwater chemistry and microbial community assemblage. Further, we found that by sampling during periods when systems are hard to access, will lend insight and better accountability for global budgets for methane, an important greenhouse gas. By strengthening our knowledge of wintertime biogeochemical relationships in high altitude watersheds our research leads to more complete descriptions of cryptic processes and ultimately will inform and improve the reactive transport models that simulate processes in these systems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Constitutive parameter measurements of lossy materials

The electrical constitutive parameters of lossy materials are considered. A discussion of the NRL arch for lossy coatings is presented involving analytical analyses of the reflected field using the geometrical theory of diffraction (GTD) and physical optics (PO). The actual values for these parameters can be obtained through a traditional transmission technique which is examined from an error analysis standpoint. Alternate sample geometries are suggested for this technique to reduce sample tolerance requirements for accurate parameter determination. The performance for one alternate geometry is given.

Dominek, A.↗

Enabling Microscale Processing: Combined Raman and Absorbance Spectroscopy for Microfluidic On-Line Monitoring

Microfluidics have many potential applications including characterization of chemical processes on a reduced scale, spanning the study of reaction kinetics using on-chip liquid–liquid extractions, sample pretreatment to simplify off-chip analysis, and for portable spectroscopic analyses. The use of in situ characterization of process streams from laboratory-scale and microscale experiments on the same chemical system can provide comprehensive understanding and in-depth analysis of any similarities or differences between process conditions at different scales. A well-characterized extraction of Nd(NO 3 ) 3 from an aqueous phase of varying NO 3– (aq) concentration with tributyl phosphate (TBP) in dodecane was the focus of this microscale study and was compared to an earlier laboratory-scale study utilizing counter current extraction equipment. Here, we verify that this same extraction process can be followed on the microscale using spectroscopic methods adapted for microfluidic measurement. Concentration of Nd (based on UV–vis) and nitrate (based on Raman) was chemometrically measured during the flow experiment, and resulting data were used to determine the distribution ratio for Nd. Extraction distributions measured on the microscale were compared favorably with those determined on the laboratory scale in the earlier study. Both micro-Raman and micro-UV–vis spectroscopy can be used to determine fundamental parameters with significantly reduced sample size as compared to traditional laboratory-scale approaches. This leads naturally to time, cost, and waste reductions.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Dark Energy Survey Year 3: Blue shear

Modeling the intrinsic alignment (IA) of galaxies poses a challenge to weak lensing analyses. Here, using the Dark Energy Survey Year 3 shape catalog, we expect less impact from IA when we limit the sample to blue, star-forming galaxies. The cosmological parameter constraints from this BLUE cosmic shear sample are stable to IA model choice, unlike passive galaxies in the full DES Y3 sample, the goodness-of-fit is improved and the Ω m and 𝑆 8 better agree with the observations from Planck on the cosmic microwave background. Mitigating IA with sample selection in DES, rather than flexible model choices, can reduce uncertainty in 𝑆 8 by a factor of 1.5.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Dynamics and configurations of galaxy triplets

The purpose is to infer the probable dynamical states of galaxy triplets by the observed data on their configurations. Two methods are proposed for describing the distributions of the triplet configuration parameters characterizing a tendency to alignment and hierarchy: (1) obtaining a representative sample of configurations and determining its statistical parameters (moments and percentages); and (2) dividing the region of possible configurations of triple systems (Agekian and Anosova, 1967) into a set of segments and finding the probabilities for the configurations to find themselves in each of them. Both these methods allow representation of the data by numerical simulations as well as observations. The effect of projection was studied. It rather overestimates the alignment and hierarchy of the triple systems. Among the parameters of interest there are found some parameters that are least sensitive to projection effects. The samples consist of simulated galaxy triplets (with hidden mass) as well as of 46 probably physical triple galaxies (Karachentseva et al., 1979). The observed triples as well as numerical models show a tendency to alignment. The triple galaxies do not show any tendency to hierarchy (formation of the temporary binaries), but this tendency may be present for simulated triplets without significant dark matter. The significant hidden mass (of order ten times the total mass of a triplet) decreases the probability of forming a binary and so weakens the hierarchy. Small galaxy groups consisting of 3 to 7 members are probably the most prevalent types of galaxy aggregate (Gorbatsky, 1987). Galaxy triplets are the simplest groups, but dynamically nontrivial ones.

Anosova, Joanna P.↗

Influence of Population Variation of Physiological Parameters in Computational Models of Space Physiology

The earliest manifestations of Visual Impairment and Intracranial Pressure (VIIP) syndrome become evident after months of spaceflight and include a variety of ophthalmic changes, including posterior globe flattening and distension of the optic nerve sheath. Prevailing evidence links the occurrence of VIIP to the cephalic fluid shift induced by microgravity and the subsequent pressure changes around the optic nerve and eye. Deducing the etiology of VIIP is challenging due to the wide range of physiological parameters that may be influenced by spaceflight and are required to address a realistic spectrum of physiological responses. Here, we report on the application of an efficient approach to interrogating physiological parameter space through computational modeling. Specifically, we assess the influence of uncertainty in input parameters for two models of VIIP syndrome: a lumped-parameter model (LPM) of the cardiovascular and central nervous systems, and a finite-element model (FEM) of the posterior eye, optic nerve head (ONH) and optic nerve sheath. Methods: To investigate the parameter space in each model, we employed Latin hypercube sampling partial rank correlation coefficient (LHSPRCC) strategies. LHS techniques outperform Monte Carlo approaches by enforcing efficient sampling across the entire range of all parameters. The PRCC method estimates the sensitivity of model outputs to these parameters while adjusting for the linear effects of all other inputs. The LPM analysis addressed uncertainties in 42 physiological parameters, such as initial compartmental volume and nominal compartment percentage of total cardiac output in the supine state, while the FEM evaluated the effects on biomechanical strain from uncertainties in 23 material and pressure parameters for the ocular anatomy. Results and Conclusion: The LPM analysis identified several key factors including high sensitivity to the initial fluid distribution. The FEM study found that intraocular pressure and intracranial pressure had dominant impact on the peak strains in the ONH and retro-laminar optic nerve, respectively; optic nerve and lamina cribrosa stiffness were also important. This investigation illustrates the ability of LHSPRCC to identify the most influential physiological parameters, which must therefore be well-characterized to produce the most accurate numerical results.

biomechanics↗

Joint analysis of Dark Energy Survey Year 3 data and CMB lensing from SPT and P l a n c k . II. Cross-correlation measurements and cosmological constraints

Cross-correlations of galaxy positions and galaxy shears with maps of gravitational lensing of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) are sensitive to the distribution of large-scale structure in the Universe. Such cross-correlations are also expected to be immune to some of the systematic effects that complicate correlation measurements internal to galaxy surveys. We present measurements and modeling of the cross-correlations between galaxy positions and galaxy lensing measured in the first three years of data from the Dark Energy Survey with CMB lensing maps derived from a combination of data from the 2500 deg 2 SPT-SZ survey conducted with the South Pole Telescope and full-sky data from the Planck satellite. The CMB lensing maps used in this analysis have been constructed in a way that minimizes biases from the thermal Sunyaev Zel’dovich effect, making them well suited for cross-correlation studies. The total signal-to-noise of the cross-correlation measurements is 23.9 (25.7) when using a choice of angular scales optimized for a linear (nonlinear) galaxy bias model. Here we use the cross-correlation measurements to obtain constraints on cosmological parameters. For our fiducial galaxy sample, which consist of four bins of magnitude-selected galaxies, we find constraints of Ω m =0.272$^{+0.032}_{-0.052}$ and S 8 ≡σ8$\sqrt{Ω_m/0.3}$=0.736$^{+0.032}_{-0.028}$ (Ω m =0.245$^{+0.026}_{-0.044}$ and S 8 =0.734$^{+0.035}_{-0.028}$) when assuming linear (nonlinear) galaxy bias in our modeling. Considering only the cross-correlation of galaxy shear with CMB lensing, we find Ω m =0.270$^{+0.043}_{-0.061}$ and S 8 =0.740$^{+0.034}_{-0.029}$. Our constraints on S8 are consistent with recent cosmic shear measurements, but lower than the values preferred by primary CMB measurements from Planck.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Advanced Graphite Creep Uncertainty Analysis

Radiation damage estimation is an important component of the post irradiation analysis of the Advanced Graphite Creep (AGC) experiment. It depends primarily on the fast fluence, which is determined using well established methods of spectral adjustment. These are based on best estimates from models such as Monte Carlo N-Particle (MCNP), input cross-sections, and measured activities from flux wires in the experiment. Each of these parameters can propagate uncertainties which will affect the uncertainty in the calculated dose levels for AGC, or any experiment irradiated within a reactor. While the methods of propagating uncertainty are well-established, the final uncertainty estimates they provide are only as good as the estimates of uncertainty in the inputs on which they are based. The purpose of this work is to outline some deficiencies in the ways these input uncertainties are presently estimated, and to outline a methodology by which they can be improved. The fast fluence and radiation damage received by graphite specimens irradiated in the Advanced Graphite Creep (AGC) experiments is presently estimated using spectral adjustment methods that are based on both flux wire activity measurements, and MCNP model predictions. This work describes an ongoing effort to quantify and propagate uncertainties in inputs to the spectral adjustment process, and thereby quantify the resultant error in radiation damage (dpa) estimates. The effort is multi-faceted, and we consider the impacts of both the set of flux wires selected, and the counting process. An expanded set of flux wires is identified that provides a more comprehensive data set on the fast spectrum. To address the counting process itself, a series of round-robin measurements in several reactor metrology laboratories across the Department of Energy (DOE) complex and nuclear industry are being undertaken to refine the American Society for Testing and Materials (ASTM) standards for flux wire measurements. To address the contribution of uncertainty in the MCNP model predictions, an uncertainty quantification (UQ) tool has been developed that statistically samples the model input parameters, runs a series of cases, and assimilates the results to provide an overall uncertainty. The impact of the MCNP UQ tool results is demonstrated by re-analyzing previous AGC flux wire and irradiation data. While the expanded flux wire set obviously cannot be added to these experiments retroactively, plans for future graphite irradiations are outlined.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

"Smart" Magnetic Fluids Experiment Operated on the International Space Station

InSPACE is a microgravity fluid physics experiment that was operated on the International Space Station (ISS) in the Microgravity Science Glovebox from late March 2003 through early July 2003. (InSPACE is an acronym for Investigating the Structure of Paramagnetic Aggregates From Colloidal Emulsions.) The purpose of the experiment is to obtain fundamental data of the complex properties of an exciting class of smart materials termed magnetorheological (MR) fluids. MR fluids are suspensions, or colloids, comprised of small (micrometer-sized) superparamagnetic particles in a nonmagnetic medium. Colloids are suspensions of very small particles suspended in a liquid. (Examples of other colloids are blood, milk, and paint.) These controllable fluids can quickly transition into a nearly solid state when exposed to a magnetic field and return to their original liquid state when the magnetic field is removed. Controlling the strength of the magnetic field can control the relative stiffness of these fluids. MR fluids can be used to improve or develop new seat suspensions, robotics, clutches, airplane landing gear, and vibration damping systems. The principal investigator for InSPACE is Professor Alice P. Gast of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT). The InSPACE hardware was developed at the NASA Glenn Research Center. The InSPACE samples were delivered to the ISS in November 2002, on the Space Shuttle Endeavour, on Space Station Utilization Flight UF-2/STS113. Operations began on March 31, 2003, with the processing of three different particle size samples at multiple test parameters. This investigation focused on determining the structural organization of MR colloidal aggregates when exposed to a pulsing magnetic field. On Earth, the aggregates take the shape of footballs with spiky tips. This characteristic shape may be influenced by the pull of gravity, which causes most particles initially suspended in the fluid to sediment, (i.e., settle and collect at the bottom of the cell). In the absence of sedimentation effects on the ISS, the behavior and shape of these MR aggregate structures are dominated exclusively by magnetic and surface tension forces. The microscopic detail of these structures was imaged under two orthogonal camera views. The video was downlinked to the InSPACE team at Glenn's Telescience Support Center and to MIT and also recorded onboard the ISS on videotapes that will be brought back to the ground by the space shuttles. The study examined the effect on the structure formation by varying the magnetic field strength and pulse frequency, and particle size. Fundamental data that characterized the structure formation were obtained. InSPACE completed its last planned test run on July 2, 2003. Operations occurred on 21 days over approximately a 3-month period. Forty-one test points were completed during 26 test runs. During the initial testing, the procedures followed by the crew were modified to maximize the observation of some unexpected and interesting aggregate behavior. As a result Dr. Gast has reported on the formation of aggregate shapes that are more extended and diverse than those observed on the ground. Sheets of magnetic material folded over in a labyrinth pattern and large columnar aggregates with complex interfaces with the surrounding fluid are examples of the interesting structures that have been observed on the ISS. In light of these early findings, the understanding of the fundamental properties of MR fluids on the basis of ground-based observations may need to be reconsidered.The experiments on the ISS have provided a vast amount of video data for analysis. While this analysis is ongoing, plans are being made for additional experimental runs. For this purpose, additional hardware and cells containing samples of different magnetic particles and sizes are being fabricated for a future launch to the ISS. The InSPACE hardware will remain on orbit until this testing is completed.

Agui, Juan H.↗

Exploring DFT+U parameter space with a Bayesian calibration assisted by Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling

Abstract The density-functional theory is widely used to predict the physical properties of materials. However, it usually fails for strongly correlated materials. A popular solution is to use the Hubbard correction to treat strongly correlated electronic states. Unfortunately, the values of the Hubbard U and J parameters are initially unknown, and they can vary from one material to another. In this semi-empirical study, we explore the U and J parameter space of a group of iron-based compounds to simultaneously improve the prediction of physical properties (volume, magnetic moment, and bandgap). We used a Bayesian calibration assisted by Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling for three different exchange-correlation functionals (LDA, PBE, and PBEsol). We found that LDA requires the largest U correction. PBE has the smallest standard deviation and its U and J parameters are the most transferable to other iron-based compounds. Lastly, PBE predicts lattice parameters reasonably well without the Hubbard correction.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Emulator-Based Bayesian Calibration of the CISNET Colorectal Cancer Models

Purpose To calibrate Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Modeling Network (CISNET)'s SimCRC, MISCAN-Colon, and CRC-SPIN simulation models of the natural history colorectal cancer (CRC) with an emulator-based Bayesian algorithm and internally validate the model-predicted outcomes to calibration targets.Methods We used Latin hypercube sampling to sample up to 50,000 parameter sets for each CISNET-CRC model and generated the corresponding outputs. We trained multilayer perceptron artificial neural networks (ANNs) as emulators using the input and output samples for each CISNET-CRC model. We selected ANN structures with corresponding hyperparameters (i.e., number of hidden layers, nodes, activation functions, epochs, and optimizer) that minimize the predicted mean square error on the validation sample. We implemented the ANN emulators in a probabilistic programming language and calibrated the input parameters with Hamiltonian Monte Carlo-based algorithms to obtain the joint posterior distributions of the CISNET-CRC models' parameters. We internally validated each calibrated emulator by comparing the model-predicted posterior outputs against the calibration targets.Results The optimal ANN for SimCRC had 4 hidden layers and 360 hidden nodes, MISCAN-Colon had 4 hidden layers and 114 hidden nodes, and CRC-SPIN had 1 hidden layer and 140 hidden nodes. The total time for training and calibrating the emulators was 7.3, 4.0, and 0.66 h for SimCRC, MISCAN-Colon, and CRC-SPIN, respectively. The mean of the model-predicted outputs fell within the 95% confidence intervals of the calibration targets in 98 of 110 for SimCRC, 65 of 93 for MISCAN, and 31 of 41 targets for CRC-SPIN.Conclusions Using ANN emulators is a practical solution to reduce the computational burden and complexity for Bayesian calibration of individual-level simulation models used for policy analysis, such as the CISNET CRC models. In this work, we present a step-by-step guide to constructing emulators for calibrating 3 realistic CRC individual-level models using a Bayesian approach.

artificial neural networks↗