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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 361 records · Page 20
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

An evaluation of multi-fidelity methods for quantifying uncertainty in projections of ice-sheet mass change

Abstract. This study investigated the computational benefits of using multi-fidelity statistical estimation (MFSE) algorithms to quantify uncertainty in the mass change of Humboldt Glacier, Greenland, between 2007 and 2100 using a single climate change scenario. The goal of this study was to determine whether MFSE can use multiple models of varying cost and accuracy to reduce the computational cost of estimating the mean and variance of the projected mass change of a glacier. The problem size and complexity were chosen to reflect the challenges posed by future continental-scale studies while still facilitating a computationally feasible investigation of MFSE methods. When quantifying uncertainty introduced by a high-dimensional parameterization of the basal friction field, MFSE was able to reduce the mean-squared error in the estimates of the statistics by well over an order of magnitude when compared to a single-fidelity approach that only used the highest-fidelity model. This significant reduction in computational cost was achieved despite the low-fidelity models used being incapable of capturing the local features of the ice-flow fields predicted by the high-fidelity model. The MFSE algorithms were able to effectively leverage the high correlation between each model's predictions of mass change, which all responded similarly to perturbations in the model inputs. Consequently, our results suggest that MFSE could be highly useful for reducing the cost of computing continental-scale probabilistic projections of sea-level rise due to ice-sheet mass change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1971

Development of superalloys by powder metallurgy for use at 1000 - 1400 F

Consolidated powders of four nickel-base superalloys were studied for potential application as compressor and turbine discs in jet engines. All of the alloys were based on the Rene' 95 chemistry. Three of these had variations in carbon and A12O3 contents, and the fourth alloy was chemically modified to a higher volume fraction. The A12O3 was added by preoxidation of the powders prior to extrusion. Various levels of four experimental factors (1) alloy composition, (2) grain size, (3) thermomechanical processing, and (4) room temperature deformation plus final age were evaluated by tensile and stress rupture testing at 1200 F. Various levels of the four factors were assumed in order to construct the statistically-designed experiment, but the actual levels investigated were established in preliminary studies that preceded the statistical process development study.

Calhoun, C. D.↗
NASA NTRS1977

Hot corrosion resistance of nickel-chromium-aluminum alloys

The hot corrosion resistance of nickel-chromium-aluminum alloy was examined by cyclically oxidizing sodium sulfate coated specimens in still air at 900, 1000 and 1100 C. The compositions tested were within the ternary region: Ni; Ni-50 at.% Cr; and Ni-50 at.% Al. At each temperature the corrosion data were statistically fitted to a third order regression equation as a function of chromium and aluminum contents. Corrosion isopleths were prepared from these equations. Compositional regions with the best hot corrosion resistance were identified.

Santoro, G. J.↗
NASA NTRS1977

An automated library financial management system

A computerized library acquisition system developed for control of informational materials acquired at NASA Ames Research Center is described. The system monitors the acquisition of both library and individual researchers' orders and supplies detailed financial, statistical, and bibliographical information. Applicability for other libraries and the future availability of the program is discussed.

Dueker, S.↗
NASA NTRS1977

Hot corrosion resistance of nickel-chromium-aluminum alloys

The hot corrosion resistance of nickel-chromium-aluminum alloys was examined by cyclically oxidizing sodium sulfate-coated specimens in still air at 900, 1000, and 1100 C. The compositions tested were within the ternary region: Ni, Ni-50 at.% Cr, and Ni-50 at.% Al. At each temperature the corrosion data were statistically fitted to a third order regression equation as a function of chromium and aluminum contents. From these equations corrosion isopleths were prepared. Compositional regions with the best hot corrosion resistance were identified.

Santoro, G. J.↗
NASA NTRS1983

The diffuse interstellar feature at 4430 A and interstellar extinction in the far-ultraviolet

IUE measurements have been obtained for the UV extinction characteristics of 20 reddened stars previously reported to have anomalously high or low A(4430)/E(B-V) ratios, in order to conduct a first statistical study of the correlations between these ratios and interstellar extinction features in the UV. A marginally significant positive correlation is noted between A(4430)/E(B-V) and the normalized strength of the 2175 A extinction jump, but no correlation is found with the total extinction at the wavelength and a marginally negative correlation is found with the extinction rise at 1250 A. The hypothesis that 4430 A diffuse absorption is produced by very small interstellar grains is not supported by the present observations.

Witt, A. N.↗
NASA NTRS1984

A statistical correlation method for the retrieval of atmospheric moisture profiles by microwave radiometry

A statistical correlation technique is applied to the retrieval of vertical moisture profiles under clear-sky conditions from down-looking radiometric measurements of atmospheric radiation at microwave wavelengths. For a given set of channels, the method selects the optimum radiometric channels for estimating water vapor at specific pressure levels between the surface and 300 mb. The water vapor mixing ratio at these pressure levels is then calculated from a linear combination of the selected channel brightness temperatures. To test its validity the algorithm was applied, in a numerical experiment, to fifty independent tropical radiosondes. The rms absolute deviation of the estimated moisture profiles from the actual profiles was comparable to that obtained using an iterative retrieval method reported earlier. The statistical method, however, requires several orders of magnitude less computer time than the iterative method; it is suitable for high speed processing of large amounts of data.

Kakar, R. K.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Collision probabilities in the presence of nebular gas drag

We are developing a model to determine what fraction of the planetesimals would have hit a protoplanet on their sunward journey as opposed to having a close approach and passing into an inferior orbit. The model involves direct numerical integration of restricted-three-body orbits using a predictor-corrector integrator. A simple gas drag law with a v(exp 2) dependence was also included in the equations of motion. Runs of 100 to 500 particles were already performed, while some future runs may require several times this number in order to get good impact statistics. All planetesimals start in superior orbits with semi-major axes 5 to 10 R(sub H) from the protoplanets, where R(sub H) is the protoplanet's Hill Sphere radius. The orbit is followed until the planetesimal passed into an inferior orbit at least 10 R(sub H) from the protoplanet. This process typically requires 10(exp 4) to 10(exp 5) orbits.

Kary, David M.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Future missions studies: Combining Schatten's solar activity prediction model with a chaotic prediction model

K. Schatten (1991) recently developed a method for combining his prediction model with our chaotic model. The philosophy behind this combined model and his method of combination is explained. Because the Schatten solar prediction model (KS) uses a dynamo to mimic solar dynamics, accurate prediction is limited to long-term solar behavior (10 to 20 years). The Chaotic prediction model (SA) uses the recently developed techniques of nonlinear dynamics to predict solar activity. It can be used to predict activity only up to the horizon. In theory, the chaotic prediction should be several orders of magnitude better than statistical predictions up to that horizon; beyond the horizon, chaotic predictions would theoretically be just as good as statistical predictions. Therefore, chaos theory puts a fundamental limit on predictability.

Ashrafi, S.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Prediction of Muscle Performance During Dynamic Repetitive Exercise

A method for predicting human muscle performance was developed. Eight test subjects performed a repetitive dynamic exercise to failure using a Lordex spinal machine. Electromyography (EMG) data was collected from the erector spinae. Evaluation of the EMG data using a 5th order Autoregressive (AR) model and statistical regression analysis revealed that an AR parameter, the mean average magnitude of AR poles, can predict performance to failure as early as the second repetition of the exercise. Potential applications to the space program include evaluating on-orbit countermeasure effectiveness, maximizing post-flight recovery, and future real-time monitoring capability during Extravehicular Activity.

Byerly, D. L.↗
NASA NTRS2017

POEMMA: Probe of Extreme Multi-Messenger Astrophysics

The Probe Of Extreme Multi-Messenger Astrophysics (POEMMA) mission is being designed to establish charged-particle astronomy with ultra-high energy cosmic rays (UHECRs) and to observe cosmogenic tau neutrinos (CTNs). The study of UHECRs and CTNs from space will yield orders-of-magnitude increase in statistics of observed UHECRs at the highest energies, and the observation of the cosmogenic flux of neutrinos for a range of UHECR models. These observations should solve the long-standing puzzle of the origin of the highest energy particles ever observed, providing a new window onto the most energetic environments and events in the Universe, while studying particle interactions well beyond accelerator energies. The discovery of CTNs will help solve the puzzle of the origin of UHECRs and begin a new field of Astroparticle Physics with the study of neutrino properties at ultra-high energies.

Olinto, Angela V.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Stochastic symplectic reduced-order modeling for model-form uncertainty quantification in molecular dynamics simulations in various statistical ensembles

Here, this work focuses on the representation of model-form uncertainties in molecular dynamics simulations in various statistical ensembles. In prior contributions, the modeling of such uncertainties was formalized and applied to quantify the impact of, and the error generated by, pair-potential selection in the microcanonical ensemble (NVE). In this work, we extend this formulation and present a linear-subspace reduced-order model for the canonical (NVT) and isobaric (NPT) ensembles. The symplectic reduced-order basis is randomized on the tangent space of the Stiefel manifold to provide topological relationships and capture model-form uncertainty. Using the Large-scale Atomic/Molecular Massively Parallel Simulator (LAMMPS), we assess the relevance of these stochastic reduced-order atomistic models on canonical problems involving a Lennard-Jones fluid and an argon crystal melt.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

On the convergence of statistics in simulations of stationary incompressible turbulent flows

When reporting statistics from simulations of statistically stationary chaotic phenomenon, it is important to verify that the simulations are time-converged. This condition is connected with the statistical error or number of digits with which statistics can be reliably reported. In this work we consider numerical experiments of low Reynolds number incompressible homogeneous and isotropic turbulence as a model problem to investigate statistical convergence over finite simulation times. Specifically, we investigate the time integration requirements that allow meaningful reporting of the statistical error associated with finiteness of the temporal domain. We address two key questions: (1) How long should a simulation be performed in terms of large eddy time, and (2) How should the simulation time be divided among temporal windows over which a quantity of interest is estimated so that its statistical error could be reliably reported? We find that reliable reporting of statistical errors requires simulations on the order of 10 4 large eddy times, which is orders of magnitude longer than typically performed. Additionally, data post-processing should employ windows of at least ten times the large eddy time scale, with the most robust computation of statistical error of the mean requiring window sizes of an additional factor of ten. For practical simulations, we demonstrate that it is possible to estimate the statistical error within a factor of two under a less stringent condition in which a minimum of four windows with size at least ten large eddy times are used. In conclusion, our observations for homogeneous isotropic turbulence are also shown to hold in turbulent channel flow.

42 ENGINEERING↗
NASA NTRS1993

Testing higher-order Lagrangian perturbation theory against numerical simulation. 1: Pancake models

We present results showing an improvement of the accuracy of perturbation theory as applied to cosmological structure formation for a useful range of quasi-linear scales. The Lagrangian theory of gravitational instability of an Einstein-de Sitter dust cosmogony investigated and solved up to the third order is compared with numerical simulations. In this paper we study the dynamics of pancake models as a first step. In previous work the accuracy of several analytical approximations for the modeling of large-scale structure in the mildly non-linear regime was analyzed in the same way, allowing for direct comparison of the accuracy of various approximations. In particular, the Zel'dovich approximation (hereafter ZA) as a subclass of the first-order Lagrangian perturbation solutions was found to provide an excellent approximation to the density field in the mildly non-linear regime (i.e. up to a linear r.m.s. density contrast of sigma is approximately 2). The performance of ZA in hierarchical clustering models can be greatly improved by truncating the initial power spectrum (smoothing the initial data). We here explore whether this approximation can be further improved with higher-order corrections in the displacement mapping from homogeneity. We study a single pancake model (truncated power-spectrum with power-spectrum with power-index n = -1) using cross-correlation statistics employed in previous work. We found that for all statistical methods used the higher-order corrections improve the results obtained for the first-order solution up to the stage when sigma (linear theory) is approximately 1. While this improvement can be seen for all spatial scales, later stages retain this feature only above a certain scale which is increasing with time. However, third-order is not much improvement over second-order at any stage. The total breakdown of the perturbation approach is observed at the stage, where sigma (linear theory) is approximately 2, which corresponds to the onset of hierarchical clustering. This success is found at a considerable higher non-linearity than is usual for perturbation theory. Whether a truncation of the initial power-spectrum in hierarchical models retains this improvement will be analyzed in a forthcoming work.

Buchert, T.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Robust Strategy for Rocket Engine Health Monitoring

Monitoring the health of rocket engine systems is essentially a two-phase process. The acquisition phase involves sensing physical conditions at selected locations, converting physical inputs to electrical signals, conditioning the signals as appropriate to establish scale or filter interference, and recording results in a form that is easy to interpret. The inference phase involves analysis of results from the acquisition phase, comparison of analysis results to established health measures, and assessment of health indications. A variety of analytical tools may be employed in the inference phase of health monitoring. These tools can be separated into three broad categories: statistical, rule based, and model based. Statistical methods can provide excellent comparative measures of engine operating health. They require well-characterized data from an ensemble of "typical" engines, or "golden" data from a specific test assumed to define the operating norm in order to establish reliable comparative measures. Statistical methods are generally suitable for real-time health monitoring because they do not deal with the physical complexities of engine operation. The utility of statistical methods in rocket engine health monitoring is hindered by practical limits on the quantity and quality of available data. This is due to the difficulty and high cost of data acquisition, the limited number of available test engines, and the problem of simulating flight conditions in ground test facilities. In addition, statistical methods incur a penalty for disregarding flow complexity and are therefore limited in their ability to define performance shift causality. Rule based methods infer the health state of the engine system based on comparison of individual measurements or combinations of measurements with defined health norms or rules. This does not mean that rule based methods are necessarily simple. Although binary yes-no health assessment can sometimes be established by relatively simple rules, the causality assignment needed for refined health monitoring often requires an exceptionally complex rule base involving complicated logical maps. Structuring the rule system to be clear and unambiguous can be difficult, and the expert input required to maintain a large logic network and associated rule base can be prohibitive.

Santi, L. Michael↗
DOE OSTI2023

Particle-number fluctuations near the critical point of nuclear matter

Equation of state with the quantum statistics corrections is used for particle-number fluctuations ω of the isotopically symmetric nuclear matter with interparticle van der Waals and Skyrme local density interactions. Here, the fluctuations, ω ∝ 1/K, are analytically derived through the isothermal incompressibility K at first order over a small quantum-statistics parameter. Our approximate analytical results appear to be in good agreement with the results of accurate numerical calculations. These results are also close to those obtained by using more accurate Tolman and Rowlinson expansions of the incompressibility K near the critical point. More general formula for fluctuations ω, improved at the critical point, was obtained for a finite particle-number average $\langle$N$\rangle$ by neglecting, for simplicity, small quantum statistics effects. It is shown that for a large dimensionless parameter, α ∝ K 2 $\langle$N$\rangle$/K", where K" is the second derivative of the incompressibility K as function of the average particle density n, far from the critical point (α >> 1), one finds the traditional asymptote, ω ∝ 1/K, for the fluctuations ω. For a small parameter, α << 1, near the critical point, where K = 0 and α = 0, one obtains another asymptote of ω. These fluctuations, having a maximum near the critical point as function of the average density n, for finite values of $\langle$N$\rangle$ are finite and relatively small, in contrast to the results of the traditional calculations.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1992

Comparison of asteroid and meteorite spectra - Classification by principal component analysis

The spectra of 103 meteorites and 411 asteroids have been statistically compared via principal component analysis, in order to arrive at an overview of spectral similarities between and among asteroids and meteorites; the result is a map of statistically defined relative spectral similarities measured by distance. There is much more spectral variance in the meteorites than in the asteroids. The analysis indicates no direct meteorite analogs from the outer-belt B, D, F, P, and T type asteroids, indicating that only a limited portion of the inner asteroid belt is sampled by meteorites.

Britt, Daniel T.↗
DOE OSTI2021

The completed SDSS-IV extended Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey: N-body mock challenge for the eBOSS emission line galaxy sample

ABSTRACT Cosmological growth can be measured in the redshift space clustering of galaxies targeted by spectroscopic surveys. Accurate prediction of clustering of galaxies will require understanding galaxy physics, which is a very hard and highly non-linear problem. Approximate models of redshift space distortion (RSD) take a perturbative approach to solve the evolution of dark matter and galaxies in the universe. In this paper, we focus on extended Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic (eBOSS) emission line galaxies (ELGs) that live in intermediate mass haloes. We create a series of mock catalogues using haloes from the Multidark and outer rim dark matter only N-body simulations. Our mock catalogues include various effects inspired by baryonic physics such as assembly bias and the characteristics of satellite galaxies kinematics, dynamics, and statistics deviating from dark matter particles. We analyse these mocks using the TNS RSD model in Fourier space and the convolution Lagrangian perturbation theory (CLPT) in configuration space. We conclude that these two RSD models provide an unbiased measurement of RSD within the statistical error of our mocks. We obtain the conservative theoretical systematic uncertainty of $3.3{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$, $1.8{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$, and $1.5{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$ in fσ8, α∥, and α⊥, respectively, for the TNS and CLPT models. We note that the estimated theoretical systematic error is an order of magnitude smaller than the statistical error of the eBOSS ELG sample and hence are negligible for the purpose of the current eBOSS ELG analysis.

Alam, Shadab↗