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At least 361 records · Page 20

Optimization and Evaluation of Stochastic Unified Convection Using Single-Column Model Simulations at Multiple Observation Sites

We extend the previously developed stochastic unified convection scheme (UNICON) for shallow convection to deep convection by parameterizing the impact of mesoscale organized flow on updraft properties. The extended stochastic UNICON parameterizes thermodynamic properties of updrafts at the near-surface as a multivariate Gaussian distribution, where the variances of the distribution are the summation of variances from non-organized turbulence and mesoscale organized flow. The distribution of updraft radius is parameterized as a power-law distribution with a scale break which is parameterized as a linear function of the strength of mesoscale organized flow. The proposed parameterization is validated using a series of large-eddy simulations of deep convection. The free parameters introduced in the formulation of stochastic UNICON are optimized using 10 cases of single-column model simulations over the ocean. Stochastic UNICON with the optimized parameters significantly reduces the biases of thermodynamic profiles and surface precipitation rates simulated in the original UNICON for tropical convection cases. The simulation of the variation in anomalies of temperature and moisture associated with the Madden-Julian oscillation is also improved. The overall improvements in simulated thermodynamic profiles are found to be due to the increased heating and drying tendencies by convective processes in stochastic UNICON. An additional simulation of an idealized deep convection case shows that stochastic UNICON produces enhanced cloud variabilities with dependency on updraft radius, indicating its ability to represent the coexistence of shallow and deep convection.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Labrador Sea freshening linked to Beaufort Gyre freshwater release

Abstract The Beaufort Gyre (BG), the largest Arctic Ocean freshwater reservoir, has drastically increased its liquid freshwater content by 40% in the past two decades. If released within a short period, the excess freshwater could potentially impact the large-scale ocean circulation by freshening the upper subpolar North Atlantic. Here, we track BG-sourced freshwater using passive tracers in a global ocean sea-ice model and show that this freshwater exited the Arctic mostly through the Canadian Arctic Archipelago, rather than Fram Strait, during an historical release event in 1983–1995. The Labrador Sea is the most affected region in the subpolar North Atlantic, with a freshening of 0.2 psu on the western shelves and 0.4 psu in the Labrador Current. Given that the present BG freshwater content anomaly is twice the historical analog studied here, the impact of a future rapid release on Labrador Sea salinity could be significant, easily exceeding similar fluxes from Greenland meltwater.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Severe 21st-century ocean acidification in Antarctic Marine Protected Areas

Antarctic coastal waters are home to several established or proposed Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) supporting exceptional biodiversity. Despite being threatened by anthropogenic climate change, uncertainties remain surrounding the future ocean acidification (OA) of these waters. Here we present 21st-century projections of OA in Antarctic MPAs under four emission scenarios using a high-resolution ocean–sea ice–biogeochemistry model with realistic ice-shelf geometry. By 2100, we project pH declines of up to 0.36 (total scale) for the top 200 m. Vigorous vertical mixing of anthropogenic carbon produces severe OA throughout the water column in coastal waters of proposed and existing MPAs. Consequently, end-of-century aragonite undersaturation is ubiquitous under the three highest emission scenarios. Given the cumulative threat to marine ecosystems by environmental change and activities such as fishing, our findings call for strong emission-mitigation efforts and further management strategies to reduce pressures on ecosystems, such as the continuation and expansion of Antarctic MPAs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Scripts for Surface Fluxes Paper

SAND2025-10129O Scripts for Surface Fluxes Paper uses Matlab scripts and plots to investigate surface coupling mechanisms between the atmosphere and the ocean in Earth system models. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525.

Guba, Oksana [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Liver↗

WEC as a multiport

SAND2025-00555O WEC as a multiport is a software tool that simplifies the modeling and design of ocean wave energy converters (WECs) using a multi-port network framework in the frequency domain. Users can simulate the dynamic interactions between WECs and ocean waves, optimizing energy extraction and system performance. This tool supports the analysis of complex wave energy systems, aiding in the development of efficient and effective WEC designs. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525.

Coe, Ryan↗

Two-Day Westward-Propagating Inertio-Gravity Waves during GoAmazon

The dynamical and thermodynamical features of Amazonian 2-day westward-propagating inertia–gravity (WIG) waves are examined. On the basis of a linear regression analysis of satellite brightness temperature and data from the 2014–15 Observations and Modeling of the Green Ocean Amazon (GoAmazon) field campaign, it is shown that Amazonian WIG waves exhibit structure and propagation characteristics consistent with the n = 1 WIG waves from shallow water theory. These WIG waves exhibit a pronounced seasonality, with peak activity occurring from March to May and a minimum occurring from June to September. Evidence is shown that mesoscale convective systems over the Amazon are frequently organized in 2-day WIG waves. Results suggest that many of the Amazonian WIG waves come from preexisting 2-day waves over the Atlantic, which slow down when coupled with the deeper, more intense convection over tropical South America. In contrast to WIG waves that occur over the ocean, Amazonian 2-day WIG waves exhibit a pronounced signature in surface temperature, moisture, and heat fluxes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The influence of surface heat fluxes on the growth of idealized monsoon depressions

This study explores the effect of surface sensible and latent heat fluxes on monsoon depressions using a series of idealized convection-permitting simulations. Each experiment is initialized with a small-amplitude wave that is allowed to grow within an environment representative of the South Asian monsoon. Comparing experiments with and without interactive surface heat fluxes, it is found that these fluxes enhance the growth of the simulated vortices. Without interactive surface fluxes, the strengthening period is short and the vortices fail to reach intensities characteristic of stronger monsoon depressions. Using a large set of experiments in which the vertical and meridional shear are systematically varied, it is found that surface heat fluxes enhance intensity the most when the upper-level shear is weak, the lower-level shear and associated moist static energy (MSE) gradient are sufficiently steep, and the lower-level meridional shear is strong. Here, these experiments reveal two different regimes of convection-coupled monsoon depression growth: one in which convection is driven by MSE advection and one in which it is driven by surface heat fluxes and quasigeostrophic forcing for ascent. Both regimes require sufficiently strong meridional shear to achieve initial growth by barotropic instability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Why Does E3SMv2 Have High Aerosol Sensitivity?

The Energy Exascale Earth System Model’s (E3SM) high aerosol effective radiative forcing (ERF) is evaluated against results from the Radiative-Forcing-Model-Intercomparison-Project (RFMIP). ERF is decomposed into aerosol susceptibility and aerosol optical depth change (Δτ). E3SM’s Δτ is found to be larger than that of any RFMIP model – particularly over the ocean - while its radiative response to anthropogenic aerosol change is unremarkable. Sensitivity simulations which reduce E3SM’s unrealistically large Δτ are effective at damping E3SM’s unusually strong ERF and improve agreement with the historical temperature record but have little impact on present-day climatology. These results suggest that reducing anthropogenic aerosol concentrations is an essential ingredient in any plan to fix E3SM’s high ERF.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Examining Aerosol Vertical Transport and Removal during Deep Convective Events

Atmospheric aerosols affect the global energy budget by scattering and absorbing sunlight (direct effects) and by changing the microphysical structure, lifetime, and coverage of clouds (indirect effects). Globally, the free troposphere is a major source of nucleation- and Aitken-mode aerosols due to the enhanced new particle formation rates at high altitudes. Recent studies have shown deep convective systems are capable of transporting these small aerosols from the free troposphere to the boundary layer by strong convective downdrafts and weaker downward motions in the stratiform regions. These vertically transported aerosols can grow into cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) and play a significant role in the global climate. During the deep convective processes, existing accumulation-mode aerosols that act as coagulation sinks of smaller particles are also removed by wet scavenging. Compared to the vertical transport of these particles by entrainment mixing, which is slower but more prevalent, the deep convective downdraft processes may be more rapid and efficient in the vertical transport of aerosols. However, most of the current climate models do not include this mechanism as a source of CCN, mainly because the frequency of deep convective events varies significantly with geographic location and thus their contributions to CCN are unpredictable. We target this critical gap in understanding the vertical transport and removal of aerosols by deep convections. We proposed to analyze a multi-year, multi-site measurement record available from the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) ARM program, including the observations from the 2014/15 Observations and Modeling of the Green Ocean Amazon (GoAmazon) field campaign, the 2017/18 Aerosol and Cloud Experiments in the Eastern North Atlantic (ACE-ENA) field campaign, the 2018/19 Cloud, Aerosol, and Complex Terrain Interactions (CACTI) field campaign, the 2021/22 Tracking Aerosol Convection Interactions Experiment (TRACER) field campaign, and the long-term measurements collected at the Southern Great Plains (SGP) atmospheric observatory, where deep convective clouds were frequently observed. This project is aimed at the following three objectives: (1) Gaining a detailed and quantitative understanding of the aerosols transported by a convective downdraft and their evolution in the atmosphere; (2) Examining the wet scavenging mechanisms and efficiencies of aerosols at altitudes of deep convective systems based on ground and aircraft measurements; (3) Evaluating the contribution of deep convective systems to CCN as both a source and a sink of atmospheric aerosols and its seasonal variabilities.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

What drives daily precipitation over the central Amazon? Differences observed between wet and dry seasons

This study offers an alternative presentation regarding how diurnal precipitation is modulated by convective events that developed over the central Amazon during the preceding nighttime period. We use data collected during the Observations and Modelling of the Green Ocean Amazon (GoAmazon 2014/2015) field campaign that took place from 1 January 2014 to 30 November 2015 in the central Amazon. Local surface-based observations of cloud occurrence, soil temperature, surface fluxes, and planetary boundary layer characteristics are coupled with satellite data to identify the physical mechanisms that control the diurnal rainfall in central Amazon during the wet and dry seasons. This is accomplished through evaluation of the atmospheric properties during the nocturnal periods preceding raining and non-raining events. Comparisons between these non-raining and raining transitions are presented for the wet (January to April) and dry (June to September) seasons. The results suggest that wet-season diurnal precipitation is modulated by nighttime cloud coverage and local influences such as heating induced turbulence, whereas the dry-season rain events are controlled by large-scale circulations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Light Absorption by Brown Carbon over the South-East Atlantic Ocean

Biomass burning emissions often contain brown carbon (BrC), which represents a large family of light-absorbing organics that is chemically complex and therefore difficult to estimate their absorption of incoming solar radiation, resulting in large uncertainties in the estimation of the global direct radiative effect of aerosols. Here we investigate the contribution of BrC to the total light absorption of biomass burning aerosols over the South-East Atlantic Ocean with different optical models utilizing a suite of airborne measurements from the ORACLES 2018 campaign by introducing an effective refractive index of black carbon (BC), m eBC = n eBC +ik eBC , that accounts for all possible absorbing components at 660 nm wavelength to facilitate the attribution of absorption at shorter wavelengths. Most values of the imaginary part of the refractive index, k eBC , were larger than those commonly used for BC from biomass burning emissions, suggesting contributions from absorbers beyond BC at 660 nm. The TEM-EDX single particle analysis further suggests that these long-wavelength absorbers might include iron oxides, as iron is found to be present only when large values of k eBC are derived. Using this effective BC refractive index, we find that the contribution of BrC to the total absorption at 470 nm (R BrC,470 ) ranges from ~5–15 %, with the organic aerosol mass absorption coefficient (MAC OA,470 ) at this wavelength ranging from 0.25 ± 0.34 m 2 g -1 to 0.43 ± 0.12 m 2 g -1 . The core-shell model yielded much higher estimates of MAC OA,470 and R BrC,470 than homogeneous mixing models, underscoring the importance of model treatment. Another key finding was that estimates of the BrC contribution at 470 nm from the commonly used AAE (absorption Ångström exponent) attribution method (< 5 %) are much lower than the BrC contribution estimates (R BrC,470 ) using our new methodology that accounts for contributions from both BrC and non-carbonaceous, long-wavelength absorbers, such as magnetite. Thus, it is recommended that application of any optical properties-based attribution method use absorption coefficients at the longest possible wavelength to minimize the influence of BrC at the long wavelength and to account for potential contributions from other absorbing materials.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Lifecycle of updrafts and mass flux in isolated deep convection over the Amazon rainforest: insights from cell tracking

Long-term observations of deep convective cloud (DCC) vertical velocity and mass flux were collected during the Observations and Modelling of the Green Ocean Amazon (GoAmazon2014/5) experiment. Precipitation echoes from a surveillance weather radar near Manaus, Brazil, are tracked to identify and evaluate the isolated DCC lifecycle evolution during the dry and wet seasons. A radar wind profiler (RWP) provides precipitation and air motion profiles to estimate the vertical velocity, mass flux, and mass transport rates within overpassing DCC cores as a function of the tracked cell lifecycle stage. The average radar reflectivity factor (Z), DCC area (A), and surface rainfall rate (R) increased with DCC lifetime as convective cells were developing, reached a peak as the cells matured, and decreased thereafter as cells dissipated. As the convective cells mature, cumulative DCC properties exhibit stronger updraft behaviors with higher upward mass flux and transport rates above the melting layer (compared with initial and later lifecycle stages). In comparison, developing DCCs have the lowest Z associated with weak updrafts, as well as negative mass flux and transport rates above the melting layer. Over the DCC lifetime, the height of the maximum downward mass flux decreased, whereas the height of the maximum net mass flux increased. During the dry season, the tracked DCCs had higher Z, propagation speed, and DCC area, and were more isolated spatially compared with the wet season. Dry season DCCs exhibit higher Z, mass flux, and mass transport rate while developing, whereas wet season DCCs exhibit higher Z, mass flux, and mass transport rates at later stages.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A protocol for calculating basal melt rates in the ISMIP6 Antarctic ice sheet projections

Climate model projections have previously been used to compute ice shelf basal melt rates in ice sheet models, but the strategies employed – e.g., ocean input, parameterization, calibration technique, and corrections – have varied widely and are often ad hoc. Here, a methodology is proposed for the calculation of circum-Antarctic basal melt rates for floating ice, based on climate models, that is suitable for ISMIP6, the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (6th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project). The past and future evolution of ocean temperature and salinity is derived from a climate model by estimating anomalies with respect to the modern day, which are added to a present-day climatology constructed from existing observational datasets. Temperature and salinity are extrapolated to any position potentially occupied by a simulated ice shelf. A simple formulation is proposed for a basal melt parameterization in ISMIP6, constrained by the observed temperature climatology, with a quadratic dependency on either the nonlocal or local thermal forcing. Two calibration methods are proposed: (1) based on the mean Antarctic melt rate (MeanAnt) and (2) based on melt rates near Pine Island's deep grounding line (PIGL). Future Antarctic mean melt rates are an order of magnitude greater in PIGL than in MeanAnt. The PIGL calibration and the local parameterization result in more realistic melt rates near grounding lines. PIGL is also more consistent with observations of interannual melt rate variability underneath Pine Island and Dotson ice shelves. This work stresses the need for more physics and less calibration in the parameterizations and for more observations of hydrographic properties and melt rates at interannual and decadal timescales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Extended thermodynamic model for high salinity produced waters

To support the development of desalination processes for high salinity produced waters, we developed a comprehensive thermodynamic model that reliably predicts the thermodynamic properties and phase behavior of produced water. Here this study extends a previously developed thermodynamic model for the aqueous hexary oceanic salt system by incorporating the Sr 2+ and Ba 2+ ions. Based on the electrolyte nonrandom two-liquid theory, the model requires two adjustable binary interaction parameters for each water-electrolyte and electrolyte-electrolyte pair that has a common ion. The binary interaction parameters for the electrolyte-electrolyte pairs involving Sr 2+ and Ba 2+ ions were identified using thermodynamic and salt solubility data. The model was validated for temperatures from 273.15 K to 473.15 K and electrolyte concentrations from infinite dilution to salt saturation. Extension of the model to include HCO 3 − , CO 3 2− , and CO 2 is currently in progress.

42 ENGINEERING↗

The underappreciated role of anthropogenic sources in atmospheric soluble iron flux to the Southern Ocean

The atmospheric deposition of soluble (bioaccessible) iron enhances ocean primary productivity and subsequent atmospheric CO 2 sequestration in iron-limited ocean basins, especially the Southern Ocean. While anthropogenic sources have been recently suggested to be important in some northern hemisphere oceans, the role in the Southern Ocean remains ambiguous. By comparing multiple model simulations with the new aircraft observations for anthropogenic iron, we show that anthropogenic soluble iron deposition flux to the Southern Ocean could be underestimated by more than a factor of ten in previous modeling estimates. Our improved estimate for the anthropogenic iron budget enhances its contribution on the soluble iron deposition in the Southern Ocean from about 10% to 60%, implying a dominant role of anthropogenic sources. We predict that anthropogenic soluble iron deposition in the Southern Ocean is reduced substantially (30-90%) by the year 2100, and plays a major role in the future evolution of atmospheric soluble iron inputs to the Southern Ocean.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Biodiversity and Stoichiometric Plasticity Increase Pico‐Phytoplankton Contributions to Marine Net Primary Productivity and the Biological Pump

Earth System Models generally predict increasing upper ocean stratification from 21st century warming, which will cause a decrease in the vertical nutrient flux forcing declines in marine net primary productivity (NPP) and carbon export. Recent advances in quantifying marine ecosystem carbon to nutrient stoichiometry have identified large latitudinal and biome variability, with low-latitude oligotrophic systems harboring pico-sized phytoplankton exhibiting large phosphorus to carbon cellular plasticity. The climate forced changes in nutrient flux stoichiometry and phytoplankton community composition are thus likely to alter the ocean's biogeochemical response and feedback with the carbon-climate system. We have added three pico-phytoplankton functional types within the Biogeochemical Elemental Cycling component of the Community Earth System Model while incorporating variable cellular phosphorus to carbon stoichiometry for all represented phytoplankton types. The model simulates Prochlorococcus and Synechococcus populations that dominate the productivity and sinking carbon export of the tropical and subtropical ocean, and pico-eukaryote populations that contribute significantly to productivity and export within the subtropical to mid-latitude transition zone, with the western subtropical regions of each basin supporting the most P-poor stoichiometries. Subtropical gyre recirculation regions along the poleward flanks of surface western boundary currents are identified as regional hotspots of enhanced carbon export exhibiting C-rich/P-poor stoichiometry, preferentially inhabited by pico-eukaryotes and diatoms. Collectively, pico-phytoplankton contribute ∼58% of global NPP and ∼46% of global particulate organic carbon export below 100 m through direct and ecosystem processing pathways. Biodiversity and cellular nutrient plasticity in marine pico-phytoplankton combine to increase their contributions to ocean productivity and the biological carbon pump.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

Benthic Kinetic Energy in an Earth System Model and Observations

The benthic layer of the ocean is closely correlated with every upper layer above it. Close analysis of benthic layer stress can yield an accurate depiction of the state of the ocean, as well as the atmosphere above it. Through the use of the Department of Energy’s Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM), we took a look at how these features changed over time in a simulation spanning the historical period from 1958 to 2018 in the Arctic Ocean north of 60° N. Making use of E3SM’s regional refinement capability to place higher resolution in regions of interest, the E3SM-Arctic configuration has ~10 km resolution in the ocean and sea ice components in this region, coarsening up to ~60 km outside of the Arctic (Veneziani et al. 2022). In particular, we narrowly focused on the benthic kinetic energy levels, and how trends changed over time. To validate the fidelity of the E3SM model, we compared model current speed outputs over a 369-day period in the Bering Strait to actual recorded observations during this time period. Our analysis of the benthic kinetic energy mean, standard deviation, and trend throughout this time period can be used to characterize the effects of environmental impacts in the Arctic Ocean.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗