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At least 361 records · Page 20

Generative Ensemble Regression: Learning Particle Dynamics from Observations of Ensembles with Physics-informed Deep Generative Models

Here, we propose a new method for inferring the governing stochastic ordinary differential equations (SODEs) by observing particle ensembles at discrete and sparse time instants, i.e., multiple “snapshots.” Particle coordinates at a single time instant, possibly noisy or truncated, are recorded in each snapshot but are unpaired across the snapshots. By training a physics-informed generative model that generates “fake” sample paths, we aim to fit the observed particle ensemble distributions with a curve in the probability measure space, which is induced from the inferred particle dynamics. We employ different metrics to quantify the differences between distributions, e.g., the sliced Wasserstein distances and the adversarial losses in generative adversarial networks. We refer to this method as generative “ensemble-regression” (GER), in analogy to the classic “point-regression,” where we infer the dynamics by performing regression in the Euclidean space. We illustrate the GER by learning the drift and diffusion terms of particle ensembles governed by SODEs with Brownian motions and Lévy processes up to 100 dimensions. We also discuss how to treat cases with noisy or truncated observations. Apart from systems consisting of independent particles, we also tackle nonlocal interacting particle systems with unknown interaction potential parameters by constructing a physics-informed loss function. Finally, we investigate scenarios of paired observations and discuss how to reduce the dimensionality in such cases by proving a convergence theorem that provides theoretical support.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Measurement of the 1-jettiness event shape observable in deep-inelastic electron-proton scattering at HERA

The H1 Collaboration reports the first measurement of the 1-jettiness event shape observable $τ^b_1$ in neutral-current deep-inelastic electron-proton scattering (DIS). The observable $τ^b_1$ is equivalent to a thrust observable defined in the Breit frame. The data sample was collected at the HERA ep collider in the years 2003–2007 with center-of-mass energy of $\sqrt{s}$ = 319 GeV, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 351.1 pb -1 . Triple differential cross sections are provided as a function of $τ^b_1$, event virtuality $Q^2$, and inelasticity y, in the kinematic region $Q^2$ > 150 GeV 2 . Single differential cross section are provided as a function of $τ^b_1$ in a limited kinematic range. Double differential cross sections are measured, in contrast, integrated over $τ^b_1$ and represent the inclusive neutral-current DIS cross section measured as a function of $Q^2$ and y. The data are compared to a variety of predictions and include classical and modern Monte Carlo event generators, predictions in fixed-order perturbative QCD where calculations up to $\mathcal{O}$($α^3_s$) are available for $τ^b_1$ or inclusive DIS, and resummed predictions at next-to-leading logarithmic accuracy matched to fixed order predictions at $\mathcal{O}$($α^2_s$). These comparisons reveal sensitivity of the 1-jettiness observable to QCD parton shower and resummation effects, as well as the modeling of hadronization and fragmentation. Within their range of validity, the fixed-order predictions provide a good description of the data. Monte Carlo event generators are predictive over the full measured range and hence their underlying models and parameters can be constrained by comparing to the presented data.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Policy Considerations When Federating Facilities for Experimental and Observational Data Analysis

Today’s computational, experimental, and observational facilities afford us tremendous opportunities to couple theory and experiment at increasingly large scales. Empirical sensing capabilities are growing dramatically with beam line and detector improvements, and with advances in our ability to deploy large-scale data gathering observations of the natural world. The coupling of computational simulations and analysis to process the data from experimental and observational facilities is giving rise to cross-facility workflows. Such federations of facilities are in fact becoming an explicit requirement for large-scale scientific discovery. As we scale up these pipelines of scientific discovery, each participating facility needs to establish and align policies so that the federation can work seamlessly in an end-to-end manner. This chapter outlines specific policy considerations in enabling the federation of facilities for data analysis. Design choices and vital policy decisions cover the areas of data acquisition and storage, data transfer, computational resource allocation and co-scheduling, seamless federated user access, and cross-cutting governance. By highlighting the explicit and implicit interdependencies between facilities, we aim to provide facility designers and policymakers the information on policy issues to address early in a facility’s operations, thus enabling successful cross-facility federation and improved experimental and observational data analysis outcomes.

Shankar, Mallikarjun (Arjun)↗

Influence of Entrainment on Centimeter-Scale Cloud Microphysics in Marine Stratocumulus Clouds Observed during CSET

Abstract Cloud microphysical relationships observed during the Cloud System Evolution in the Trades (CSET) campaign held between Northern California and Hawaii were analyzed to study the effects of entrainment and subsequent mixing of free-tropospheric and cloudy air on cloud microphysical properties of marine stratocumulus clouds. The data measured by Holographic Detector for Clouds (HOLODEC) were extensively used because they could provide the 3D positions and sizes of droplets within sample volume on the centimeter scale, making it possible to explore the 3D spatial distribution of droplets, which has not been possible for conventional cloud probes. This study focused on analyzing the 3D spatial distribution of droplets and visual traits of inhomogeneous mixing and on quantifying the relationship between 3D spatial distributions and traits of inhomogeneous mixing. Two types of spatial distributions are compared. The first is measured droplet spatial distribution and the second type is generated randomly distributed droplets using the Monte Carlo approach, that is, to analyze whether or not clustering is strong enough to classify as a clustered distribution for a hologram. The difference between the two types of spatial distributions depends on whether they are affected by entrainment and mixing. The holograms observed near the cloud top, where the effects of entrainment and mixing would be immediate, showed relatively high confidence in the significance test for spatially clustered populations of droplets. Moreover, spatially clustered holograms appeared to exhibit stronger visual traits of inhomogeneous mixing than perfectly randomly distributed holograms only when observed near the cloud top. On the other hand, these characteristics did not appear for holograms observed deeper into the cloud where the effects of entrainment and mixing would be reduced. Such 3D structural characteristics of droplet distributions seem to be consistent with vertical circulation mixing.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

Multi-Frequency Analysis of Simulated versus Observed Variability in Tropospheric Temperature

Studies seeking to identify a human-caused global warming signal generally rely on climate model estimates of the “noise” of intrinsic natural variability. Assessing the reliability of these noise estimates is of critical importance. We evaluate here the statistical significance of differences between climate model and observational natural variability spectra for global-mean mid- to upper-tropospheric temperature (TMT). We use TMT information from satellites and large multimodel ensembles of forced and unforced simulations. Our main goal is to explore the sensitivity of model-versus-data spectral comparisons to a wide range of subjective decisions. These include the choice of satellite and climate model TMT datasets, the method for separating signal and noise, the frequency range considered, and the statistical model used to represent observed natural variability. Of particular interest is the amplitude of the interdecadal noise against which an anthropogenic tropospheric warming signal must be detected. We find that on time scales of 5–20 years, observed TMT variability is (on average) overestimated by the last two generations of climate models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. This result is relatively insensitive to different plausible analyst choices, enhancing confidence in previous claims of detectable anthropogenic warming of the troposphere and indicating that these claims may be conservative. A further key finding is that two commonly used statistical models of short-term and long-term memory have deficiencies in their ability to capture the complex shape of observed TMT spectra.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

An Evaluation of Tropical Cyclone Rainfall Structures in the HighResMIP Simulations against Satellite Observations

This study evaluates tropical cyclone (TC) rainfall structures in the CMIP6 HighResMIP global climate model (GCM) simulations against satellite rainfall retrievals. Here, we specifically focus on TCs within the deep tropics (25°S–25°N). Analysis of TC rain rate composites indicates that in comparison to the satellite observations at the same intensity, many HighResMIP simulations tend to overproduce rain rates around TCs, in terms of both maximum rain rate magnitude and area-averaged rain rates. In addition, as model horizontal resolution increases, the magnitude of the peak rain rate appears to increase. However, the area-averaged rain rates decrease with increasing horizontal resolution, partly due to the TC eyewall being located closer to the TC center, thus occupying a smaller area and contributing less to the area-averaged rain rates. The effect of ocean coupling is to lower the TC rain rates, bringing them closer to the satellite observations, due to reduced horizontal moisture flux convergence and surface latent heat flux beneath TCs. Examination of horizontal rain rate distributions indicates that vertical wind shear–induced rainfall asymmetries in HighResMIP-simulated TCs are qualitatively consistent with the observations. In addition, a positive relationship is observed between the area-averaged inner-core rainfall and TC intensification likelihoods across the HighResMIP simulations, as GCM simulations producing stronger TCs more frequently have the greater rainfall close to the center, in agreement with previous theoretical and GCM simulation results.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Multiple-platform and multiple-Doppler radar observations of a supercell thunderstorm in South America during RELAMPAGO

On 10 November 2018, during the RELAMPAGO field campaign in Argentina, South America, a thunderstorm with supercell characteristics was observed by an array of mobile observing instruments, including three Doppler on Wheels (DOW) radars. This is believed to be the first such storm ever sampled by multiple Doppler radars in South America, and one of perhaps two such sets of observations in the Southern Hemisphere. The observational strategies employed within the Córdoba Province on 10 November are described, as also is the evolution of the initial deep convective clouds through their organization into a supercell. In contrast to the archetypal supercell, the updraft rotation in this storm was rather short lived (~20 min), as also was the occurrence of damaging hail, causing us to question whether this indeed was indeed a supercell. However, additional data collected within the Córdoba Province provide us with evidence of other storms with this behavior, which appears to be attributable in part to effects of the local terrain. Thus, the structure and evolution of this storm documented during RELAMPAGO may be typical in this region.

Trapp, Robert↗

Observed changes in hydroclimate attributed to human forcing

Observational and modeling studies indicate significant changes in the global hydroclimate in the twentieth and early twenty-first centuries due to anthropogenic climate change. In this review, we analyze the recent literature on the observed changes in hydroclimate attributable to anthropogenic forcing, the physical and biological mechanisms underlying those changes, and the advantages and limitations of current detection and attribution methods. Changes in the magnitude and spatial patterns of precipitation minus evaporation (P–E) are consistent with increased water vapor content driven by higher temperatures. While thermodynamics explains most of the observed changes, the contribution of dynamics is not yet well constrained, especially at regional and local scales, due to limitations in observations and climate models. Anthropogenic climate change has also increased the severity and likelihood of contemporaneous droughts in southwestern North America, southwestern South America, the Mediterranean, and the Caribbean. An increased frequency of extreme precipitation events and shifts in phenology has also been attributed to anthropogenic climate change. While considerable uncertainties persist on the role of plant physiology in modulating hydroclimate and vice versa, emerging evidence indicates that increased canopy water demand and longer growing seasons negate the water-saving effects from increased water-use efficiency.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Warm air intrusions reaching the MOSAiC expedition in April 2020—The YOPP targeted observing period (TOP)

In the spring period of the Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) expedition, an initiative was in place to increase the radiosounding frequency during warm air intrusions in the Atlantic Arctic sector. Two episodes with increased surface temperatures were captured during April 12–22, 2020, during a targeted observing period (TOP). The large-scale circulation efficiently guided the pulses of warm air into the Arctic and the observed surface temperature increased from -30°C to near melting conditions marking the transition to spring, as the temperatures did not return to values below -20°C. Back-trajectory analysis identifies 3 pathways for the transport. For the first temperature maximum, the circulation guided the airmass over the Atlantic to the northern Norwegian coast and then to the MOSAiC site. The second pathway was from the south, and it passed over the Greenland ice sheet and arrived at the observational site as a warm but dry airmass due to precipitation on the windward side. The third pathway was along the Greenland coast and the arriving airmass was both warm and moist. The back trajectories originating from pressure levels between 700 and 900 hPa line up vertically, which is somewhat surprising in this dynamically active environment. The processes acting along the trajectory originating from 800 hPa at the MOSAIC site are analyzed. Vertical profiles and surface energy exchange are presented to depict the airmass transformation based on ERA5 reanalysis fields. The TOP could be used for model evaluation and Lagrangian model studies to improve the representation of the small-scale physical processes that are important for airmass transformation. A comparison between MOSAiC observations and ERA5 reanalysis demonstrates challenges in the representation of small-scale processes, such as turbulence and the contributions to various terms of the surface energy budget, that are often misrepresented in numerical weather prediction and climate models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Monthly Mean In Situ Surface Flux Observations Paired with Satellite-Derived and Reanalysis-Based Flux Data for the Great Lakes Region, 2001–2020

Surface radiative and turbulent heat fluxes over the Great Lakes strongly influence regional hydrological and meteorological processes, and their accurate representation is critical for numerical weather prediction and coupled atmosphere–lake modeling. However, direct flux observations are spatially sparse across the region, so gridded reanalysis and satellite-derived products are often used for climatological analyses and model evaluation despite differences in their flux representations. This dataset provides processed, quality-controlled, monthly mean surface flux observations from the Great Lakes Evaporation Network (GLEN), AmeriFlux, and the National Data Buoy Center, paired with spatiotemporally matched flux estimates from two reanalysis products, the fifth generation European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) reanalysis dataset (ERA5) and the Modern Era Reanalysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2), and two satellite-derived products, the Clouds and Earth's Radiant Energy Systems Energy Balanced and Filled (CERES-EBAF) and the Cloud, Albedo and Surface Radiation dataset from AVHRR data - Edition 3 (CLARA-A3). The dataset includes sixteen observational stations with variable temporal coverage within 2001–2020. For each station, a CSV file contains monthly time series of available flux variables, including surface downwelling shortwave radiation (SW), surface downwelling longwave radiation (LW), sensible heat (SH) flux, and latent heat flux (LH), alongside matched gridded product values where available. Columns in the CSV file correspond to different variables sourced from each dataset, with column titles structured as "{dataset}_{variable}". Columns with relevant metadata are also provided in each CSV file, including station latitude and longitude, monthly timestamps, and the name of the sourced observational data. These files are structured for direct use in common analysis tools, including Microsoft Excel, Python pandas, and Python matplotlib. This dataset supports climatological analysis of the Great Lakes regional surface energy budget, evaluation of satellite-derived and reanalysis-based flux products, and development or validation of flux representations in numerical weather prediction and coupled atmosphere–lake models.

Great Lakes↗

Observations and Modeling of Fiber-Optics Strain on Hydraulic Fracture Height Growth in HFTS-2

Understanding fracture height growth can be of great significance to optimizing field development and improving recovery. The Hydraulic Fracturing Test Site 2 (HFTS-2) has provided a unique opportunity and an advanced dataset to allow us to observe and understand fracture geometries rigorously. Low frequency distributed acoustic sensing (LF-DAS) data from a vertical well in HFTS-2 showed three key observations: (i) excessive upward height growth (>1000 ft) and limited downward growth of the hydraulic fractures during pumping, (ii) considerable additional upward fracture height growth (~300 ft) after well shut in, and (iii) very complex LF-DAS strain rate patterns for a small fiber-to-stage offset. Advanced geomechanical modeling was performed to simulate the hydraulic fracture propagation and the resulting strain responses in the vertical direction. The modeling results demonstrated asymmetric upward and downward fracture height growths as observed in HFTS-2 with a similar upward height growth rate. Simulated waterfall plots of vertical strain rate showed distinct patterns for different fiber-to-fracture distances. The upward-growing fracture tip can be clearly identified by the interfaces between compressing and extending zones. It was also found that the complex strain rate patterns observed in HFTS-2 for small fiber-stage offsets were not caused by the mechanical layering but possibly result from the simultaneous propagation of multiple hydraulic fractures at different rates. Furthermore, the simulation results improved the understating of the HFTS-2 LF-DAS data and the simulated strain rate patterns could also serve as templates for fracture height interpretation from LF-DAS data in future.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Mechanism of Microseismic Generation During Hydraulic Fracturing - With Evidence From HFTS 2 Observations

The objective of this study is to understand how microseismic events are generated during hydraulic fracturing, as well as the role of geomechanical conditions (i.e., stress and mechanical stratigraphy) in this process. In the industry, microseismic event clouds have been generally used as an “outer-boundary” of the “stimulated reservoir volume” (SRV). However, by comparing with other surveillance data (Low frequency Distributed Acoustic Sensing, or LF-DAS strain) in the Hydraulic Fracturing Test Site (HFTS) 2 experiment, we show that this assumption is fundamentally flawed. The HFTS 2 data has three unique observations that have not been commonly observed in other datasets: 1. Due to influence of offset pad depletion, microseismic data shows that hydraulic fractures from the child well can propagate over 3000 feet into the depleted low stress zone. 2. By comparing microseismic and horizontal fiber LF-DAS strain data, we observe that microseismic event cloud does not necessarily reflect the created hydraulic fracture volume. Particularly, the extent of microseismic event clouds near heel stages are much shorter than what is shown with LF-DAS strain data. 3. Microseismic event magnitudes are larger in the depleted regions. Through geomechanical analysis, we demonstrate that the “bedding-plane-slip” model is likely the mechanism for microseismic generation during hydraulic fracturing. Furthermore, this model successfully explains the above field observations from HFTS 2 experiment. We also provide a quantitative relationship connecting the microseismic event magnitude with fracture width increment and layer mechanical property contrast.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Validation of Fault Displacements from Dynamic Rupture Simulations against the Observations from the 1992 Landers Earthquake

ABSTRACT Coseismic fault displacements in large earthquakes have caused significant damage to structures and lifelines on and near fault lines. Coseismic displacements represent a real threat, especially to distributed infrastructure systems. For infrastructure systems that can not avoid active faults, engineering displacement demands are defined using probabilistic fault-displacement hazard analyses (PFDHA). However, PFDHA models are sparse and poorly constrained partly due to the scarcity of detailed fault-displacement observations. Advancements in dynamic rupture simulation methods make them an attractive approach to address this important issue. Because fault displacements can be simulated for various geologic conditions as constrained by current knowledge about earthquake processes, they can be used to supplement the observation datasets. In addition to providing on-fault displacements, when used with appropriate constitutive models for the bulk medium, they can capture off-fault distributed inelastic deformations as well. For viable extrapolation, simulations must first be validated against data. In this article, we summarize the calibration and validation of the dynamic rupture model against the observations of the well-documented 1992 Landers earthquake. We defined a preferred model that reproduces several first-order fault-displacement metrics such as the on-fault partition of the total displacement, the mean fault-zone width, and the location of the peak displacement. Simulated ground motions consistent with the observations ensure that all physics important to modeling have been properly parameterized. For the extrapolation, we generated a suite of dynamic rupture models to quantify expected fault-displacement metrics, their intercorrelations, and magnitude dependencies, which are in part supported by the Landers and other recent earthquakes. Our validation and extrapolation exercise paves the way for using dynamic rupture modeling to quantitatively address fault-displacement hazard on a broader scale. The results are promising and are expected to be useful to inform PFDHA model development.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗

Observations and Modeling of Fiber Optic Strain on Hydraulic Fracture Height Growth in Hydraulic Fracturing Test Site 2 (HFTS-2)

Summary Understanding fracture height growth can be of great significance to optimizing field development and improving recovery. The Hydraulic Fracturing Test Site 2 (HFTS-2) has provided a unique opportunity and an advanced data set to allow us to observe and understand fracture geometries rigorously. Low-frequency distributed acoustic sensing (LF-DAS) data from a vertical well in HFTS-2 showed three key observations: (i) excessive upward height growth (>1,000 ft) and limited downward growth of the hydraulic fractures during pumping, (ii) considerable additional upward fracture height growth (~300 ft) after well shut in, and (iii) very complex LF-DAS strain rate patterns for a small fiber-to-stage offset. Advanced geomechanical modeling was performed to simulate the hydraulic fracture propagation and the resulting strain responses in the vertical direction. The modeling results demonstrated asymmetric upward and downward fracture height growths as observed in HFTS-2 with a similar upward height growth rate. Simulated waterfall plots of vertical strain rate showed distinct patterns for different fiber-to-fracture distances. The upward-growing fracture tip can be clearly identified by the interfaces between compressing and extending zones. It was also found that the complex strain rate patterns observed in HFTS-2 for small fiber-stage offsets were not caused by the mechanical layering but possibly result from the simultaneous propagation of multiple hydraulic fractures at different rates. The simulation results improved the understating of the HFTS-2 LF-DAS data, and the simulated strain rate patterns could also serve as templates for fracture height interpretation from LF-DAS data in future.

Engineering↗

Designing observables for quantum interference in jets at subleading color

The large-Nc or topologically planar limit of gauge theories can be considered as a classical limit because all gauge bosons are distinguishable particles and therefore cannot exhibit interference. Quantum effects due to the flow of color therefore arise starting at subleading in 1/Nc. We introduce kinematic observables explicitly sensitive to effects at subleading color formed from the ratio of interfering to squared color-ordered amplitudes. Such observables are in general not infrared and collinear safe, so we introduce angular observables defined from appropriate multi-point energy correlators motivated by the form of color-ordered amplitudes. We demonstrate that color interference effects are manifest as sinusoidal oscillation in the simplest system, a collinear jet with three particles, and show the limitations of predicting this observable in all-purpose, leading-color parton shower Monte Carlos.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Validation of RU-WRF, the Custom Atmospheric Mesoscale Model of the Rutgers Center for Ocean Observing Leadership

The Rutgers University Center for Ocean Observing Leadership (RU-COOL) contracted the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) to evaluate RU-COOL's atmospheric observation and modeling capabilities for characterizing the New Jersey offshore wind resource. The observational network used by RU-COOL consists of mostly public but some private coastal and offshore buoy-based stations. The core wind resource modeling capability of RU-COOL is a custom setup of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) mesoscale model, referred to in this report as RU-WRF. The most unique feature of RU-WRF and not found in other WRF model setups is the use of custom sea surface temperature (SST) product generated by RU-COOL. This custom product was designed to better capture the unique coastal upwelling and strong storm mixing in the Mid-Atlantic Bight, which other typical SST products are not designed to capture. Funding for the development, maintenance, and use of RU-WRF by RU-COOL is provided by the New Jersey Board of Public Utilities, who also funded the validation work presented in this report. In this validation study, NREL was specifically tasked to: 1) Assess the observational network used by RU-COOL to validate RU-WRF and make recommendations for improvement, 2) Assess methods used by RU-COOL to validate RU-WRF and make recommendations for improvement, 3) Examine the inputs to and setup within RU-WRF, compare against available NREL data sets, and make recommendations for improvement.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Integrating AI with physics-based hydrological models and observations for insightinto changing climate and anthropogenic impacts

Focal Areas: Advanced computational methods that integrate AI, physics, and observations to provide predictive landscape hydrological modeling over large areas (regional, continental, worldwide) while incorporating increasingly available high-resolution data from drones, lidar and satellite. Science Challenge: Landscape data is available at finer scales than can be used in physics-based hydrological (PBH) models for regional or continental terrestrial water modeling. Thus, we throw away observable detail to achieve computability. We argue that integration of AI with PBH models and observed data can be used to provide upscaling for predictive models that are computable, retain physical conservation properties, and represent the fine-scale features that affect complex flow physics through both natural and urban environments. Developing such next-generation capabilities requires outside-the-box thinking that melds the different approaches of AI modeling, PBH modeling, and observation across multiple scales from local drones to satellites.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Gap Flows Along the Columbia River Observed During the WFIP2 Field Campaign

Data collected in the Columbia River Gorge and Basin Area during the second Wind Forecasting Improvement Project (WFIP2) was used to study gap flow events in the region. In particular, the relationship between 200 m zonal wind speed and the zonal mesoscale pressure gradient at Troutdale (West of the gorge), Wasco (east of the gorge), and Boardman (farther east of the gorge) sites was examined. An objective criterion was used to identify 169 (Troutdale), 161 (Wasco), and 113 (Boardman) gap flow days that had weak synoptic forcing. The 200 m zonal wind speed exhibited a linear relationship with the zonal pressure gradient at Wasco during both easterly and westerly gap flow days at daily timescales. Such a relationship was only observed during easterly gap flow days at Troutdale and was not observed at Boardman. The zonal wind speed exhibited a diurnal cycle at Wasco and Boardman, with greater changes in the nighttime winds than the daytime winds due to changes in pressure gradient. The root mean square differences (RMSDs) between the observed pressure gradient at Wasco and that simulated by the High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model in 3 km (HRRR-3km) and 750 m (HRRR-750m) horizontal resolution were 3.14 hPa and 0.57 hPa, respectively. However, the RMSDs for the 200 m zonal wind speed were 1.40 m s -1 for HRRR-3km and 1.20 m s -1 for HRRR- 750m. Improvement in simulating the zonal pressure gradient accompanied by negligible changes in simulating zonal wind speed due to higher horizontal resolution points to a complex interplay between different components of the model physics when simulating the meteorology. The HRRR-750m resolution model accurately mimicked the observed covariability (phase diagram) between the zonal pressure gradient and the 200 m zonal wind speed during the nighttime, but not during the daytime, suggesting model errors might be related to the representation of boundary layer processes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗