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DOE OSTI2022

Accelerating astronomical and cosmological inference with preconditioned Monte Carlo

ABSTRACT We introduce preconditioned Monte Carlo (PMC), a novel Monte Carlo method for Bayesian inference that facilitates efficient sampling of probability distributions with non-trivial geometry. PMC utilizes a Normalizing Flow (NF) in order to decorrelate the parameters of the distribution and then proceeds by sampling from the preconditioned target distribution using an adaptive Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) scheme. The results produced by PMC include samples from the posterior distribution and an estimate of the model evidence that can be used for parameter inference and model comparison, respectively. The aforementioned framework has been thoroughly tested in a variety of challenging target distributions achieving state-of-the-art sampling performance. In the cases of primordial feature analysis and gravitational wave inference, PMC is approximately 50 and 25 times faster, respectively, than nested sampling (NS). We found that in higher dimensional applications, the acceleration is even greater. Finally, PMC is directly parallelisable, manifesting linear scaling up to thousands of CPUs.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Fluid-Dynamic Mechanisms Underlying Wind Turbine Wake Control with Strouhal-Timed Actuation

A reduction in wake effects in large wind farms through wake-aware control has considerable potential to improve farm efficiency. This work examines the success of several emerging, empirically derived control methods that modify wind turbine wakes (i.e., the pulse method, helix method, and related methods) based on Strouhal numbers on the O(0.3). Drawing on previous work in the literature for jet and bluff-body flows, the analyses leverage the normal-mode representation of wake instabilities to characterize the large-scale wake meandering observed in actuated wakes. Idealized large-eddy simulations (LES) using an actuator-line representation of the turbine blades indicate that the n=0 and ±1 modes, which correspond to the pulse and helix forcing strategies, respectively, have faster initial growth rates than higher-order modes, suggesting these lower-order modes are more appropriate for wake control. Exciting these lower-order modes with periodic pitching of the blades produces increased modal growth, higher entrainment into the wake, and faster wake recovery. Modal energy gain and the entrainment rate both increase with streamwise distance from the rotor until the intermediate wake. This suggests that the wake meandering dynamics, which share close ties with the relatively well-characterized meandering dynamics in jet and bluff-body flows, are an essential component of the success of wind turbine wake control methods. A spatial linear stability analysis is also performed on the wake flows and yields insights on the modal evolution. In the context of the normal-mode representation of wake instabilities, these findings represent the first literature examining the characteristics of the wake meandering stemming from intentional Strouhal-timed wake actuation, and they help guide the ongoing work to understand the fluid-dynamic origins of the success of the pulse, helix, and related methods.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

An efficient method to identify uncertainties of WRF-Solar variables in forecasting solar irradiance using a tangent linear sensitivity analysis

Uncertainty in predicting solar energy resources introduces major challenges in power system management and necessitates the development of reliable probabilistic solar forecasts. As the first part of the development of probabilistic forecasts based on the Weather Research and Forecasting model with solar extensions (WRF-Solar), this study presents a tangent linear approach to identify input variables responsible for the largest uncertainties in predicting surface solar irradiance and clouds. A tangent linear analysis is capable of efficiently investigating sensitivities of output variables with respect to various input variables of WRF-Solar because this approach avoids the computational burden of perturbing the initial conditions of individual input variables. We develop tangent linear models (TLMs) for six WRF-Solar physics packages that control the formation and dissipation of clouds and solar radiation, and we evaluate the validity of TLMs using a linearity test. The tangent linear sensitivity analysis is conducted under various scenarios based on satellite observations and model simulations to consider realistic input conditions. A simple method is used to quantify the impact of the uncertainty of input variables on the output variables from the TLMs. The results demonstrate that uncertainties in the output variables that are the focus of this study—including global horizontal irradiance, direct normal irradiance, cloud mixing ratio, cloud tendency, cloud fraction, and sensible and latent heat fluxes—are highly sensitive to uncertainties in 14 input variables. This study indicates that the tangent linear method can identify key variables of physics modules in WRF-Solar that can be stochastically perturbed to generate ensemble-based probabilistic forecasts.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Estimation of intensity, footprint, and capacity of surface urban heat islands using a direction-enhanced adaptive synchronous extraction (DEASE) method

Here, the surface urban heat island (SUHI) effect, assessed through remotely sensed land surface temperature (LST), remains a focal point in urban climate research. Conventional indicators like SUHI intensity (SUHII) and footprint (SUHIF) capture peak values and spatial extent but fail to account for the cumulative thermal load—a critical dimension reflecting the total heat exposure imposed by spatially continuous warming, which directly limits a holistic assessment of ecological and societal impacts of the SUHI effect. Therefore, this study introduces an indicator termed SUHI capacity (SUHIC), designed to quantify the aggregated SUHI effect by integrating the magnitude of the warming signal across all affected areas, thereby enabling a more comprehensive evaluation of urban thermal environments. Furthermore, a direction-enhanced adaptive synchronous extraction (DEASE) method is proposed for the quantification of SUHIC. This method can dynamically identify the optimal background reference area based on the urban-rural LST gradients in various directions within the city, without relying on predefined mathematical models as previously. The results from 102 European cities first confirm that the directional variations in urban-rural LST gradients, and the DEASE method can effectively capture these distinctions for the simultaneous estimation of SUHII, SUHIF, and SUHIC. Secondly, the spatial patterns of absolute SUHIC values show strong associations with those of SUHIF (R2>0.86), while its relative values (normalized by the area of urban) align more closely with SUHII (R2 > 0.64). More importantly, SUHIC can serve as a crucial reference for assessing the urban thermal signal when SUHII and SUHIF diverge. The proposed method and framework contribute to standardizing the quantification of the SUHI effect.

Indicator↗

DOE OSTI2020

Persistent Protein Motions in a Rugged Energy Landscape Revealed by Normal Mode Ensemble Analysis

Proteins are allosteric machines that couple motions at distinct, often distant, sites to control biological function. Low-frequency structural vibrations are a mechanism of this long-distance connection and are often used computationally to predict correlations, but experimentally identifying the vibrations associated with specific motions has proved challenging. Spectroscopy is an ideal tool to explore these excitations, but measurements have been largely unable to identify important frequency bands. The result is at odds with some previous calculations and raises the question what methods could successfully characterize protein structural vibrations. Here we show the lack of spectral structure arises in part from the variations in protein structure as the protein samples the energy landscape. However, by averaging over the energy landscape as sampled using an aggregate 18.5 μs of all-atom molecular dynamics simulation of hen egg white lysozyme and normal-mode analyses, we find vibrations with large overlap with functional displacements are surprisingly concentrated in narrow frequency bands. These bands are not apparent in either the ensemble averaged vibrational density of states or isotropic absorption. However, in the case of the ensemble averaged anisotropic absorption, there is persistent spectral structure and overlap between this structure and the functional displacement frequency bands. We systematically lay out heuristics for calculating the spectra robustly, including the need for statistical sampling of the protein and inclusion of adequate water in the spectral calculation. The results show the congested spectrum of these complex molecules obscures important frequency bands associated with function and reveal a method to overcome this congestion by combining structurally sensitive spectroscopy with robust normal mode ensemble analysis.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2025

Estimating Large Global Significances with a New Monte Carlo Extrapolation Method

In particle physics, it is needed to evaluate the possibility that excesses of events in mass spectra are due to statistical fluctuations as quantified by the standards of local and global significances. Without prior knowledge of a particle’s mass, it is especially critical to estimate its global significance. The usual approach is to count the number of times a significance limit is exceeded in a collection of simulated Monte Carlo (MC) “toy experiments”. To demonstrate this conventional method for global significance, we performed simulation studies according to a recent Compact Muon Solenoid (CMS) result to show its effectiveness. However, this counting method is not practical for computing large global significances. To address this problem, we developed a new “extrapolation” method to evaluate the global significance. We compared the global significance estimated by our new method with that of the conventional approach, and verified its feasibility and effectiveness. This method is also applicable for cases where only small toy MC samples are available. In this approach, the significance is calculated based on p-values, assuming symmetrical Gaussian distributions.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Thermal conductivity of 3D-printed block-copolymer-inspired structures

This study primarily focuses on examining the impact that geometric structure has on thermal conductivity of multi-phase constructs in different 3D-printed poly(lactic acid), PLA, samples. The investigated structures are inspired by morphologies formed by diblock copolymers: lamellae, hexagonally packed cylinders, and gyroid. This research also investigates how volume percentage and material combination influence the thermal conductivity of these structures. Further, the samples can be tailored to simulate various thermal management structures observed in practical applications, such as thermal interface materials in electronic devices. Thermal conductivity ratio is controlled using air, the least conductive material at 0.026 W/(m K), PLA at 0.136 W/(m K), and thermal paste at 5.11 W/(m K). Different models were tested against thermal conductivity measurements in order to capture the effect of material type (PLA-Air versus PLA-Thermal Paste), volume percentage, structure, and orientation. Simple, effective medium models were good predictions of thermal conductivity in lamellar structures, but it was necessary to develop models for conduction through cylindrical and gyroid structures. Finally, all results were normalized to find a universal model that is independent of structure and material. This approach provides a simple method to predict how to reduce or enhance transport properties and heat management capabilities of 3D printed objects.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2023

Simulating scalar field theories on quantum computers with limited resources

Here we present a quantum algorithm for implementing φ 4 lattice scalar field theory on qubit computers. The field is represented in the discretized field amplitude basis. The number of qubits and elementary gates required by the implementation of the evolution operator is proportional to the lattice size. The algorithm allows efficient φ 4 state preparation for a large range of input parameters in both the normal and broken-symmetry phases. The states are prepared using a combination of variational and adiabatic evolution methods. First, the ground state of a local Hamiltonian, which includes the φ 4 self-interaction, is prepared using short variational circuits. Next, this state is evolved by switching on the coupling between the lattice sites adiabatically. The parameters defining the local Hamiltonian are adjustable and constitute the input of our algorithm. We present a method to optimize these parameters in order to reduce the adiabatic time required for state preparation. For preparing broken-symmetry states, the adiabatic evolution problems caused by crossing the phase transition critical line and by the degeneracy of the broken-symmetry ground state can be addressed using an auxiliary external field which gradually turns off during the adiabatic process. We show that the time dependence of the external field during the adiabatic evolution is important for addressing the broken-symmetry ground state degeneracy. The adiabatic time dependence on the inverse error tolerance can be reduced from quadratic to linear by using a field strength that decreases exponentially in time relative to one that decreases linearly.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2024

Improving generative model-based unfolding with Schrödinger bridges

Machine learning-based unfolding has enabled unbinned and high-dimensional differential cross section measurements. Two main approaches have emerged in this research area; one based on discriminative models and one based on generative models. The main advantage of discriminative models is that they learn a small correction to a starting simulation while generative models scale better to regions of phase space with little data. We propose to use Schrödinger bridges and diffusion models to create , an unfolding approach that combines the strengths of both discriminative and generative models. The key feature of is that its generative model maps one set of events into another without having to go through a known probability density as is the case for normalizing flows and standard diffusion models. We show that achieves excellent performance compared to state of the art methods on a synthetic Z + jets dataset. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Improving the Nomenclature Around Uncertainty [Slides]

This presentation finds that defining the marginal probability density function (PDF) for nuclear data is important. Additionally, the vocabulary of “means and covariances” and new GNDS 2.0 formats are limited to Gaussian (normal) representations— always incorrect—but clearly of practical significance when uncertainties are large (>40%). Finally, the Triage Solution: declare our current data as containing best estimate (mode) plus variance for a truncated normal or lognormal.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Accident Progression and Source Term Demonstration Calculations for the Advanced Burner Test Reactor (ABTR)

As advanced reactor designers approach broad deployment of new reactor technologies and the associated applications, a critical milestone on this path includes licensing or authorization of these designs in the current regulatory environment. Commercial licensing and DOE authorization both consist of numerous aspects to not only certify the designed plant will operate as intended, but also related to confirmation of the safe operation of these facilities that comply with specific standards and requirements. To that end, domestic industry and regulators require toolsets and methods which can be used to confirm that advanced reactor designs not only align with expected performance during normal operation, but also a series of transient scenarios. These codes require a satisfactory validation basis, and in the absence of such a basis, code-to-code comparisons are often utilized as a surrogate to confirm model adequacy. To support this need for fast reactor technologies, a series of analyses using SAS4A/SASSYS- 1 and the Simplified Radionuclide Transport (SRT) code have been conducted for the Advanced Burner Test Reactor (ABTR). These analyses are expected to not only provide a baseline for transient and source term analyses of ABTR, but to also provide context for the key physics that determine evolution of specific transient scenarios in a sodium-cooled fast reactor (SFR). These codes are utilized for this work given their adoption in the SFR industry and by key SFR stakeholders.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Design Criteria for High-Gradient Radio-Frequency Linacs

This article will review methods used at the SLAC National Accelerator Laboratory and other world accelerator laboratories to design high-gradient normal conducting accelerating structures. A quest for compact radio-frequency linacs fueled decades of studies toward a higher accelerating gradient. A major phenomena limiting the increase of the gradient is vacuum radio-frequency breakdown; therefore, this paper will address the breakdown physics and discuss approaches that reduce the breakdown probability. This discussion will cover both the electrical design and fabrication technology of the accelerating structures to achieve practical operating accelerating gradients in excess of 100 MV/m. Most of the data described here were obtained during the development of 11 GHz linacs for electron–positron linear colliders, so extrapolation of the results to other frequencies should be performed cautiously.

Dolgashev, Valery A. (ORCID:0000000166715402)↗

DOE OSTI2020

Electro-mechanical Modeling of Wind Turbine and Energy Storage Systems with Enhanced Inertial Response

In this paper, a coordinated control scheme for wind turbine generator (WTG) and supercapacitor energy storage system (ESS) is proposed for temporary frequency supports. Inertial control is designed by using generator torque limit considering the security of WTG system, while ESS releases its energy to compensate the sudden active power deficit during the recovery process of turbine rotor. WTG is modeled using the fatigue, aerodynamic, structure, turbulence (FAST) code, which identifies the mechanical loadings of the turbine and addresses electro-mechanical interactions in the wind energy system. A damping controller is augmented to the inertial control to suppress severe mechanical oscillations in the shaft and tower of the turbine during frequency supports. Furthermore, the result of small-signal stability analysis shows that the WTG-ESS tends to improve the stability of the whole multi-energy power grid. The major contributions of this paper will be validated by utilizing the proposed control method that combines the grid support capability and maintaining the integrity of structural design of the turbine for normal operations.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

APOGEE Data and Spectral Analysis from SDSS Data Release 16: Seven Years of Observations Including First Results from APOGEE-South

The spectral analysis and data products in Data Release 16 (DR16; 2019 December) from the high-resolution near-infrared Apache Point Observatory Galactic Evolution Experiment (APOGEE)-2/Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS)-IV survey are described. Compared to the previous APOGEE data release (DR14; 2017 July), APOGEE DR16 includes about 200,000 new stellar spectra, of which 100,000 are from a new southern APOGEE instrument mounted on the 2.5 m du Pont telescope at Las Campanas Observatory in Chile. DR16 includes all data taken up to 2018 August, including data released in previous data releases. All of the data have been re-reduced and re-analyzed using the latest pipelines, resulting in a total of 473,307 spectra of 437,445 stars. Changes to the analysis methods for this release include, but are not limited to, the use of MARCS model atmospheres for calculation of the entire main grid of synthetic spectra used in the analysis, a new method for filling “holes” in the grids due to unconverged model atmospheres, and a new scheme for continuum normalization. Abundances of the neutron-capture element Ce are included for the first time. A new scheme for estimating uncertainties of the derived quantities using stars with multiple observations has been applied, and calibrated values of surface gravities for dwarf stars are now supplied. Compared to DR14, the radial velocities derived for this release more closely match those in the Gaia DR2 database, and a clear improvement in the spectral analysis of the coolest giants can be seen. The reduced spectra as well as the result of the analysis can be downloaded using links provided on the SDSS DR16 web page.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Electrolyzer and method of use

Provided herein are methods for operating carbon oxide (CO x ) reduction reactors (CRR) and related apparatus. In some embodiments, the methods involve shutting off, reducing, or otherwise controlling current during various operation stages including hydration, break-in, normal operation, planned shut-offs, and extended shutoff or storage periods.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2024

Electrolyzer and method of use

Source record↗

DOE OSTI2020

Plate motion in sheared granular fault system

Plate motion near the fault gouge layer, and the elastic interplay between the gouge layer and the plate under stick-slip conditions, is key to understanding the dynamics of sheared granular fault systems. Here, a two-dimensional implementation of the combined finite-discrete element method (FDEM), which merges the finite element method (FEM) and the discrete element method (DEM), is used to explicitly simulate a sheared granular gouge fault system. In this work we focus on investigating the influence of normal load, driving shear velocity and plate stiffness on the velocities and displacements in the direction parallel to the shear direction (x-direction) measured at locations on the upper and lower plates just adjacent to the gouge. The simulations show that during slip phases the magnitudes of the measured velocities on the upper and lower plates are proportional to the normal load and may be inversely proportional to the square root of the plate's shear modulus. Whereas, the driving shear velocity does not show distinct influence on the measured velocities. Additionally, large slip velocities are generally associated with large macroscopic friction coefficient drops. For the models subjected to smaller normal loads, larger shear velocities and with stiffer shear plates, the same magnitude of slip velocity could cause a larger drop of macroscopic friction coefficient. During stick phases, the velocities of the upper and lower plates are respectively slightly greater and slightly smaller than half of the driving shear velocity and are both in the same direction of shear. The shear strain rate of the gouge is calculated from this velocity difference between the upper and lower plate during stick phases and thus the gouge effective shear modulus can be calculated. The results show that the gouge effective shear modulus increases proportionally with normal load, while the influence of shear velocity and plate stiffness on gouge effective shear modulus is minor. The simulations address the dynamics of a laboratory-scale fault gouge system and may aid in revealing the complexities of earthquake frictional dynamics.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

In-Depth Proteome Profiling of Small Extracellular Vesicles Isolated from Cancer Cell Lines and Patient Serum

Extracellular Vesicle (EV) secretion has been observed from most types of normal and tumor cells. These EVs contain a variety of distinctive cargo where tumor-derived serum proteins in EVs secreted into the bloodstream can be used to provide a minimally invasive method for clinical monitoring. We have therefore undertaken a comprehensive study of the protein content of the EVs from several cancer cell lines using direct Data Independent Analysis (DIA). Further, several thousand proteins were detected including many of the classic EV markers such as CD9, CD81, CD63, TSG101 and Syndecan-1 among others. Many distinctive cancer related proteins were detected and some of them are known to be potential markers of cancer detection and monitoring of cancer progression. We have further studied the protein content of EVs from patient serum for both normal controls and pancreatic (PC) and Hepatocellular Carcinoma (HCC) cancers. The EVs for these studies have been isolated by various methods for comparison including ultracentrifugation (UC) and CD9 immunoaffinity column (CD9-IC). Typically, 500-1,000 proteins were identified where most of them overlapped with the EV proteins identified from the cell lines studied. Many of the EV protein markers were identified in these serum EVs and large numbers of proteins related to pancreatic and HCC cancers were identified.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗