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DOE OSTI2026

Forced Component Estimation Statistical Method Intercomparison Project (ForceSMIP)

Anthropogenic climate change is unfolding rapidly, yet its regional manifestation can be obscured by internal variability. A primary goal of climate science is to identify the externally forced climate response from among the noise of internal variability. Separating the forced response from internal variability can be addressed in climate models by using a large ensemble to average over different possible realizations of internal variability. However, with only one realization of the real world, it is a major challenge to isolate the forced response directly in observations. In the Forced Component Estimation Statistical Method Intercomparison Project (ForceSMIP), contributors used existing and newly developed statistical and machine learning methods to estimate the forced response over 1950–2022 within individual realizations of the climate system. Participants used neural networks, linear inverse models, fingerprinting methods, and low-frequency component analysis, among other approaches. These methods were trained using large ensembles from multiple climate models and then applied to observations. Here, we evaluate method performance within large ensembles and investigate the estimates of the forced response in observations. Our results show that many different types of methods are skillful for estimating the forced response in climate models, though the relative skill of individual methods varies depending on the variable and evaluation metric. Methods with comparable skill in models can give a wide range of estimates of the forced response pattern in observations, illustrating the epistemic uncertainty in forced response estimates. ForceSMIP gives new insights into the forced response in observations, its uncertainty, and methods for its estimation.

Climate attribution↗

DOE OSTI2025

Comprehensive Neural Posterior Estimation for Galaxy-Galaxy Strong Lensing

We present a deep learning model based on neural posterior estimation (NPE) for comprehensive extraction of astrophysical parameters from galaxy-scale strong gravitational lenses. The unprecedentedly large amount of galaxy-scale strong lenses expected in future cosmological surveys (${\cal O}(10^5)$) promises to enable valuable statistical constraints in various studies ranging from galaxy formation to the nature of dark matter, but it also poses a significant challenge for traditional modelling pipelines. To this end, our automated model includes several new, state-of-the-art features and approaches leveraging the framework of simulation-based inference (SBI). We infer a total of 20 parameters describing the mass and light profiles of both lens and source galaxies, using simulated raw multi-band data modelled under noise and observing conditions expected by the Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST), with its summary statistics generated by a residual network. We examine the efficacy of multi-band data in extracting nearly 20 model parameters simultaneous from strong lensing images including lens light. Finally, We perform a comprehensive set of diagnostics for SBI models, evaluating the model's prediction accuracy, stability, and uncertainty quantification.

Zhao, Roy J. [Chicago U., KICP]↗

DOE OSTI2024

Solar Energy Technical Publications Catalog: Solar Thermal Technology

The research and development described in these documents was conducted within the U.S . Department of Energy's (DOE) Solar Thermal Technology Program. The goal of this program is to advance the engineering and scientific understanding of solar thermal technology and to establish the technology base from which private industry can develop solar thermal power production options for introduction into the competitive energy market. Solar thermal technology concentrates the solar flux using tracking mirrors or lenses onto a receiver where the solar energy is absorbed as heat and converted into electricity or incorporated into products as process heat. The two primary solar thermal technologies, central receivers and distributed receivers, employ various point and line-focus optics to concentrate sunlight. Current central receiver systems use fields of heliostats (two-axis tracking mirrors) to focus the sun's radiant energy onto a single, tower- mounted receiver. Point focus concentrators up to 17 meters in diameter track the sun in two axes and use parabolic dish mirrors or Fresnel lenses to focus radiant energy onto a receiver. Troughs and bowls are line-focus tracking reflectors that concentrate sunlight onto receiver tubes along their focal lines. Concentrating collector modules can be used alone or in a multimodule system. The concentrated radiant energy absorbed by the solar thermal receiver is transported to the conversion process by a circulating work fluid. Receiver temperatures range from l00 degrees C in low-temperature troughs to over 1500 degrees C in dish and central receiver systems. The Solar Thermal Technology Program is directing efforts to advance and improve each system concept through solar thermal materials, components, and subsystems research and development and by testing and evaluation. These efforts are carried out with the technical direction of DOE and its network of field laboratories that works with private industry. Together they have established a comprehensive, goal-directed program to improve performance and provide technically proven options for eventual incorporation into the nation's energy supply. To successfully contribute to an adequate energy supply at reasonable cost, solar thermal energy must be economically competitive with a variety of other energy sources. The Solar Thermal Technology Program has developed components and system-level performance targets as quantitative program goals. These targets are used in planning research and development activities, measuring progress, assessing alternative technology options, and developing optimal components. These targets are pursued vigorously to ensure a successful program. This catalog represents part of an effort to provide information on publications about solar thermal research and development activities conducted by DOE's laboratories. Publications listed include technical and research reports and special publications. The following national laboratories are represented in this edition: Sandia National Laboratories, Solar Energy Research Institute, Jet Propulsion Laboratory. This catalog is a product of the DOE Solar Technical Information Program, which is dedicated to providing information to scientific and industrial users in ways most convenient and useful to them. This catalog focuses on solar thermal technologies, and its purpose is to keep the scientific and industrial communities informed of the latest developments in federally sponsored research in this technology.

140000* -- Solar Energy↗

DOE OSTI2023

A Fast and Scalable Genetic Algorithm-Based Approach for Planning of Microgrids in Distribution Networks

As a result of climate change, extreme weather events are occurring more frequently and with increasing impact. This trend poses a significant challenge for distribution utilities and system operators to ensure that there is uninterrupted power supply to critical loads in their networks; thus, the level of proactive preparation of the distribution system to be able to handle severe impacts of extreme weather events represents the system's resilience. One method that distribution system planners can use to prepare for future extreme events is to plan multiple microgrids which can use local generation as much as possible to supply critical loads. But partitioning an existing distribution system such that multiple feasible islands are planned and which are capable of supporting critical loads is still challenging for distribution systems - first, because of the size of the network graph partitioning problem and, second, because of the difficulty in properly formulating the desired attributes of such islands or microgrids. Therefore, this paper presents a genetic algorithm based approach that facilitates incorporating multiple objectives for grid partitioning by formulating two types of problems - node allocation and edge elimination - and it considers multiple topological and resilience-enhancing objectives. The performance of the proposed genetic algorithm-based approach is numerically evaluated on multiple test systems as well as on a real distribution feeder in Colorado, United States.

genetic algorithm↗

DOE OSTI2020

Power System Event Classification and Localization Using a Convolutional Neural Network

Detection and timely identification of power system disturbances are essential for situation awareness and reliable electricity grid operation. Because records of actual events in the system are limited, ensemble simulation-based events are needed to provide adequate data for building event-detection models through deep learning; e.g., a convolutional neural network (CNN). An ensemble numerical simulation-based training data set have been generated through dynamic simulations performed on the Polish system with various types of faults in different locations. Such data augmentation is proven to be able to provide adequate data for deep learning. The synchronous generators’ frequency signals are used and encoded into images for developing and evaluating CNN models for classification of fault types and locations. With a time-domain stacked image set as the benchmark, two different time-series encoding approaches, i.e., wavelet decomposition-based frequency-domain stacking and polar coordinate system-based Gramian Angular Field (GAF) stacking, are also adopted to evaluate and compare the CNN model performance and applicability. The various encoding approaches are suitable for different fault types and spatial zonation. With optimized settings of the developed CNN models, the classification and localization accuracies can go beyond 84 and 91%, respectively.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2021

Milestone M6 Report: Reducing Excess Data Movement Part 1

This is the second in a sequence of three Hardware Evaluation milestones that provide insight into the following questions: What are the sources of excess data movement across all levels of the memory hierarchy, going out to the network fabric? What can be done at various levels of the hardware/software hierarchy to reduce excess data movement? How does reduced data movement track application performance? The results of this study can be used to suggest where the DOE supercomputing facilities, working with their hardware vendors, can optimize aspects of the system to reduce excess data movement. Quantitative analysis will also benefit systems software and applications to optimize caching and data layout strategies. Another potential avenue is to answer cost-benefit questions, such as those involving memory capacity versus latency and bandwidth. This milestone focuses on techniques to reduce data movement, quantitatively evaluates the efficacy of the techniques in accomplishing that goal, and measures how performance tracks data movement reduction. We study a small collection of benchmarks and proxy mini-apps that run on pre-exascale GPUs and on the Accelsim GPU simulator. Our approach has two thrusts: to measure advanced data movement reduction directives and techniques on the newest available GPUs, and to evaluate our benchmark set on simulated GPUs configured with architectural refinements to reduce data movement.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Study of self-assembly behavior and ionic conductivity of conjugated liquid crystals with T-shaped facial-polyphilic structure

The unique self-assembly of liquid crystals (LCs), combined with their potential application as organic semiconductors, has become a focus of recent research. Here, a joint experimental and computational study of the self-assembly and ionic conduction was carried out on a series of T-shaped conjugated LCs consisting of three incompatible components. By extending the EOn side-chain length, several experimental evaluations confirmed a decrease of the order-disorder transition temperature, while coarse-grained simulations revealed a structural evolution from a smectic phase to a columnar phase. Ionic conductivity of these molecules was achieved by adding Li salt, leading to a maximum conductivity of 1.1 × 10 −3 siemens per centimeter observed at 120°C. All-atom simulations were performed to examine the Li-ion solvation environment and to evaluate the intrachain and interchain Li-ion hopping mechanisms. The molecule with a long EOn side chain was found to generate a densely distributed network of Li-ion solvation sites, which can facilitate effective interchain hopping to promote ion transport.

Liu, Ziwei [Cornell Univ., Ithaca, NY (United Stat↗

DOE OSTI2025

Prototyping DAQ network functions on FABRIC

This poster relates to a project that is investigating the use of the FABRIC federated testbed to scale-up research infrastructure to develop network functions that use smart (programmable) network equipment to support High Energy Physics (HEP) research. The poster describes preliminary work that involves non trivial packet parsing related to Fermilab DAQ workloads that is implemented on real hardware, and a correctness and performance evaluation.

Sagstad, Bjoern [IIT, Chicago]↗

DOE OSTI2025

Building Datasets and Training Methods for ML Based Magnet Quench Detection

Detecting quenches in superconducting (SC) magnets during training is a challenging process that involves capturing physical events that occur at different frequencies and appear as various signal features. These events may be correlated across instrumentation type, thermal cycle, and ramp. These events together build a more complete picture of continuous processes occurring in the magnet, and may allow us to flag potential precursors for quench detection. We present our work on building an automatic machine learning (ML) based quench detection system. We build upon our existing work on unsupervised auto-encoders for acoustic sensors and quench antenna (QA) by first establishing a supervised ML training pipeline. We show the results of an event tagging, analysis, and simulation framework on our QA and acoustic data which are used concurrently to build a training dataset for a supervised implementation. We then show how this supervised training can be used as a prior in a semi-supervised framework and compare this to the unsupervised neural network auto-encoder performance.This allows us to have a more concrete understanding of the performance of our algorithms relative to physical events occurring in the magnet, and also provides a baseline software tool to generically evaluate our quench prediction autoencoders under completely unsupervised, supervised, and semi-supervised training conditions.

Khan, Maira [Fermilab]↗

DOE OSTI2024

Architecture for Web-Based Visualization of Large-Scale Energy Domains: Preprint

With the growing penetration of inverter-based distributed energy resources and increased loads through electrification, power systems analyses are becoming more important and more complex. Moreover, these analyses increasingly involve the combination of interconnected energy domains with data that are spatially and temporally increasing in scale by orders of magnitude, surpassing the capabilities of many existing analysis and decision-support systems. We present the architectural design, development, and application of a high-resolution web-based visualization environment capable of cross-domain analysis of tens of millions of energy assets, focusing on scalability and performance. Our system supports the exploration, navigation, and analysis of large data from diverse domains such as electrical transmission and distribution systems, mobility and electric vehicle charging networks, communications networks, cyber assets, and other supporting infrastructure. We evaluate this system across multiple use cases, describing the capabilities and limitations of a web-based approach for high-resolution energy system visualizations.

grid modernization↗

DOE OSTI2022

Neural operator prediction of linear instability waves in high-speed boundary layers

Here, we investigate if neural operators can predict the linear evolution of instability waves in high-speed boundary layers. To this end, we extend the design of the DeepOnet to ensure accurate and robust predictions, and also to perform data assimilation. In particular, we train DeepONet to take as inputs an upstream disturbance and a downstream location of interest, and to provide as output the perturbation field downstream in the boundary layer. DeepONet thus approximates the linearized and parabolized Navier-Stokes operator for this flow. For successful application to the high-speed boundary layer problem, we add sample weighting and Fourier input features to the regular DeepONet formulation. Once trained, the DeepOnet can perform fast and accurate predictions of the downstream disturbances within the range of training frequencies (inside the distribution). In addition, we show that DeepONet can solve the inverse problem, where downstream wall measurements are adopted as input, and a trained network can predict the upstream disturbances that led to these observations. This capability, along with the forward predictions, allows us to perform a full data assimilation cycle efficiently: starting from wall-pressure data, we predict the upstream disturbance using the inverse DeepONet and its evolution using the forward DeepONet. Finally, we introduce three new metrics to benchmark the training, evaluation and break-even cost of neural operators.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Using Neural Network Force Fields to Ascertain the Quality of Ab Initio Simulations of Liquid Water

Accurately simulating the properties of bulk water, despite the apparent simplicity of the molecule, is still a challenge. In order to fully understand and reproduce its complex phase diagram, it is necessary to perform simulations at the ab initio level, including quantum mechanical effects both for electrons and nuclei. This comes at a high computational cost, given that the structural and dynamical properties tend to require long timescales and large simulation cells. In this work, we evaluate the errors that density functional theory (DFT)-based simulations routinely incur into due time- and size-scale limitations. These errors are evaluated using neural-network-trained force fields that are accurate at the level of DFT methods. We compare different exchange and correlation potentials for properties of bulk water that require large timescales. Here we show that structural properties are less dependent on the system size and that dynamical properties such as the diffusion coefficient have a strong dependence on the simulation size and timescale. Our results facilitate comparisons of DFT-based simulation results with experiments and offer a path to discriminate between model and convergence errors in these simulations.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2024

Efficient data-driven models for prediction and optimization of geothermal power plant operations

Increasing the capacity of geothermal energy as a renewable resource calls for development and deployment of efficient control and optimization technologies for geothermal power plants. A data-driven prediction and optimization model is presented as a cost-effective and efficient alternative to physics-based approach. The model predicts power output and operational cost by propagating the influence of control and disturbance variables within an artificial neural network (ANN). Numerical experiments with simulated and field data from a real geothermal power plant are first used to demonstrate the prediction performance of the ANN model. The model is then adopted to maximize the net predicted power production by automatically adjusting the working fluid circulation rate. The optimization performance of the model in evaluated using a thermodynamic flowsheet simulation model. The workflow is applied to model and control the effect of ambient temperature on an air-cooled binary cycle power plant, which is complex and costly to perform using a physics-based predictive model. As a result, the performance of the method is demonstrated by applying it to both simulated and field datasets from a binary cycle geothermal power plant.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Southwest Regional Partnership on Carbon Sequestration: Phase III (Final Scientific/Technical Report)

The Southwest Regional Partnership on Carbon Sequestration (SWP) is one of 7 regional partnerships formed in 2003 under the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnerships (RCSPs) initiative. The overall purpose of the initiative was to help determine and implement the technology, infrastructure, and regulations most appropriate to promote carbon storage in different regions of the country. Covering Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Utah, and parts of Texas, Wyoming, and Kansas, the SWP evaluated regional carbon storage and utilization potential and focused on technologies and sites that could complement the region’s strong position in energy production. The project progressed through three phases: • Phase I (2003–2005): Characterized regional geologic formations and CO 2 sources, assessed sequestration potential, and identified pilot test sites. • Phase II (2005–2013): Conducted small-scale field tests to validate sequestration methods, including geologic and terrestrial projects. • Phase III (2008–2022): Demonstrated large-scale CO 2 injection at a commercial oil field to test monitoring, verification, and long-term storage strategies. This report covers Phase III. The final project site, the Farnsworth Unit (FWU) in Texas, provided real-world testing of reservoir characterization, monitoring, and risk evaluation tools and processes that could be used in any commercial scale carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) project. Extensive data collection and analysis helped refine best practices for reservoir characterization, injection monitoring, and storage verification. The SWP contributed to national databases, DOE best practice manuals, and regional geological assessments to support future sequestration efforts. Key lessons learned include the importance of robust data management, strategic site selection, regulatory navigation, and effective industry collaboration. The project’s findings will inform ongoing and future carbon storage initiatives. Task 1 (Regional Characterization) • The SWP continued to participate in national outreach efforts and NATCARB. • The SWP evaluated multiple potential sites before selecting the FWU as the primary field test location. Task 2 (Public Outreach and Education) • The SWP contributed to national databases, DOE best practice manuals, and regional geological assessments to support future sequestration efforts. Task 3 (Permitting and Regulatory Compliance) • The SWP ensured compliance with federal and state regulations, including National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) requirements. • The SWP obtained all necessary permits for drilling, injection, and monitoring activities. Task 4 (Site Characterization and Planning) • The SWP developed work plans for four key activities: characterization, simulation, monitoring and verification, and risk evaluation. • The SWP collected and synthesized legacy data from multiple sources to build initial static geological models and dynamic reservoir models demonstrating project feasibility. • The SWP conducted an initial risk evaluation and developed mitigation plans. Task 5 (Field Operations and Data Collection) • The SWP drilled, logged, and cored three characterization wells to gather critical subsurface data. • The SWP conducted multiple geophysical surveys, including 3D seismic, crosswell seismic, and vertical seismic profiling, to improve reservoir characterization. Task 6 (Monitoring and Verification) • The SWP performed extensive geological characterization using data from characterization wells and seismic surveys. • The SWP established a surface monitoring network to track CO 2 flux in soil gas, groundwater chemistry, and near-surface atmospheric CO 2 levels. • The SWP built and refined reservoir models to study the effects of relative permeability on simulation behavior and improve calibration with experimental data. Task 7 (Risk Assessment and Model Refinement) • The SWP conducted multiple studies to evaluate reservoir integrity, predict CO 2 plume behavior and improve predictive modeling capabilities. • The SWP refined geological models and used them to enhance the accuracy of simulation models. • The SWP continued quantitative risk assessment of top-ranked risks and strengthened the link between qualitative and quantitative risk methodologies.

02 PETROLEUM↗

DOE OSTI2022

Deep-learning-based workflow for boundary and small target segmentation in digital rock images using UNet++ and IK-EBM

We report three-dimensional (3D) X-ray micro-computed tomography (μCT) has been widely used in petroleum engineering because it can provide detailed pore structural information for a reservoir rock, which can be imported into a pore-scale numerical model to simulate the transport and distribution of multiple fluids in the pore space. The partial volume blurring (PVB) problem is a major challenge in segmenting raw μCT images of rock samples, which impacts boundaries and small targets near the resolution limit. We developed a deep-learning (DL)-based workflow for accurate and fast partial volume segmentation. The DL model's performance depends primarily on the training data quality and model architecture. This study employed the entropy-based-masking indicator kriging (IK-EBM) to segment 3D Berea sandstone images as training datasets. The comparison between IK-EBM and manual segmentation using a 3D synthetic sphere pack, which had a known ground truth, showed that IK-EBM had higher accuracy on partial volume segmentation. We then trained and tested the UNet++ model, a state-of-the-art supervised encoder-decoder model, for binary (i.e., void and solid) and four-class segmentation. We compared the UNet++ with the commonly used U-Net and wide U-Net models and showed that the UNet++ had the best performance in terms of pixel-wise and physics-based evaluation metrics. Specifically, boundary-scaled accuracy demonstrated that the UNet++ architecture outperformed the regular U-Net architecture in the segmentation of pixels near boundaries and small targets, which were subjected to the PVB effect. Feature map visualization illustrated that the UNet++ bridged the semantic gaps between the feature maps extracted at different depths of the network, thereby enabling faster convergence and more accurate extraction of fine-scale features. The developed workflow significantly enhances the performance of supervised encoder-decoder models in partial volume segmentation, which has extensive applications in fundamental studies of subsurface energy, water, and environmental systems.

02 PETROLEUM↗

DOE OSTI2021

High-temperature high-pressure microfluidic system for rapid screening of supercritical CO 2 foaming agents

CO 2 foam helps to increase the viscosity of CO 2 flood fluid and thus improve the process efficiency of the anthropogenic greenhouse gas’s subsurface utilization and sequestration. Successful CO 2 foam formation mandates the development of high-performance chemicals at close to reservoir conditions, which in turn requires extensive laboratory tests and evaluations. This work demonstrates the utilization of a microfluidic reservoir analogue for rapid evaluation and screening of commercial surfactants (i.e., Cocamidopropyl Hydroxysultaine, Lauramidopropyl Betaine, Tallow Amine Ethoxylate, N,N,N' Trimethyl-N'-Tallow-1,3-diaminopropane, and Sodium Alpha Olefin Sulfonate) based on their performance to produce supercritical CO 2 foam at high salinity, temperature, and pressure conditions. The microfluidic analogue was designed to represent the pore sizes of the geologic reservoir rock and to operate at 100 °C and 13.8 MPa. Values of the pressure drop across the microfluidic analogue during flow of the CO 2 foam through its pore network was used to evaluate the strength of the generated foam and utilized only milliliters of liquid. The transparent microfluidic pore network allows in-situ quantitative visualization of CO 2 foam to calculate its half-life under static conditions while observing if there is any damage to the pore network due to precipitation and blockage. The microfluidic mobility reduction results agree with those of foam loop rheometer measurements, however, the microfluidic approach provided more accurate foam stability data to differentiate the foaming agent as compared with conventional balk testing. The results obtained here supports the utility of microfluidic systems for rapid screening of chemicals for carbon sequestration or enhanced oil recovery operations.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2023

Evaluating U.S. Natural Gas Environmental Performance

This work summarizes the U.S. Department of Energy National Energy Technology Laboratory's (NETL) modeling and analysis of natural gas environmental performance. Over the past year, NETL updated its U.S. natural gas supply chain life cycle baseline model to incorporate 2020 data, regionalize the transmission and distribution network into six regions, incorporate improved gathering and boosting stage and distribution stage emissions factors, and assign environmental burdens among the various co-products (i.e., crude oil, natural gas liquids, natural gas) of the natural gas supply chain. The updated natural gas model helps generate more comprehensive and regionalized natural gas profiles, mapping production basins to the relevant transmission and distribution regions downstream. The work incorporates data from multiple peer reviewed measurement-based studies to achieve the objective of providing a comprehensive understanding of emissions from the U.S. natural gas supply chain. This presentation also explores future work by NETL to develop a platform that enables stakeholders to customize key parameters within the natural gas LCA model and observe the corresponding effects on the carbon intensity of the overall supply chain. The platform aims to offer a convenient method for stakeholders to obtain relevant insights from the updated model, without diving deep into the intricacies of the NETL natural gas model with hundreds of parameters and linkages.

Khutal, Harshvardhan↗

DOE OSTI2020

Cutting the Deployment Costs of Physics-Based MPC in Buildings by Simulation-Based Imitation Learning

It has been shown that model predictive control (MPC) is a promising solution for energy-efficient building operations. However, the deployment of MPC in a large portion of the building stock has not been possible partially because of high installation costs. Every building is unique and requires a tailored MPC solution. The best performing solutions are often based on physics-based modeling, which is, however, computationally expensive and requires dedicated software. A promising direction that tackles this problem is to train a neural network-based optimal control policy to imitate the behavior of physics-based MPC from the simulation data generated offline. The neural networks give control actions that closely approximate those produced by physics-based MPC, but with a fraction of the computational and memory requirements and without the need for licensed software. The main advantage of the proposed approach stems from simple evaluation at execution time, leading to low computational footprints and easy deployment on embedded HW platforms. In the case study, we present the energy savings potential of physics-based MPC applied to an office building in Belgium. We demonstrate how neural network approximators can be used to cut the implementation and maintenance costs of MPC deployment without compromising performance. We also critically assess the presented approach by pointing out the remaining challenges and open research questions.

Drgona, Jan↗