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All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2023

Inferring adversarial behaviour in cyber‐physical power systems using a Bayesian attack graph approach

Abstract Highly connected smart power systems are subject to increasing vulnerabilities and adversarial threats. Defenders need to proactively identify and defend new high‐risk access paths of cyber intruders that target grid resilience. However, cyber‐physical risk analysis and defense in power systems often requires making assumptions on adversary behaviour, and these assumptions can be wrong. Thus, this work examines the problem of inferring adversary behaviour in power systems to improve risk‐based defense and detection. To achieve this, a Bayesian approach for inference of the Cyber‐Adversarial Power System (Bayes‐CAPS) is proposed that uses Bayesian networks (BNs) to define and solve the inference problem of adversarial movement in the grid infrastructure towards targets of physical impact. Specifically, BNs are used to compute conditional probabilities to queries, such as the probability of observing an event given a set of alerts. Bayes‐CAPS builds initial Bayesian attack graphs for realistic power system cyber‐physical models. These models are adaptable using collected data from the system under study. Then, Bayes‐CAPS computes the posterior probabilities of the occurrence of a security breach event in power systems. Experiments are conducted that evaluate algorithms based on time complexity, accuracy and impact of evidence for different scales and densities of network. The performance is evaluated and compared for five realistic cyber‐physical power system models of increasing size and complexities ranging from 8 to 300 substations based on computation and accuracy impacts.

Sahu, Abhijeet↗

DOE OSTI2024

Monitoring the impact of confinement on hyphal penetration and fungal behavior

Through their expansive mycelium network, soil fungi alter the physical arrangement and chemical composition of their local environment. This can significantly impact bacterial distribution and nutrient transport and can play a dramatic role in shaping the rhizosphere around a developing plant. However, direct observation and quantitation of such behaviors is extremely difficult due to the opacity and complex porosity of the soil microenvironment. In this study, we demonstrate the development and use of an engineered microhabitat to visualize fungal growth in response to varied levels of confinement. Microfluidics were fabricated using photolithography and conventional soft lithography, assembled onto glass slides, and prepared to accommodate fungal cultures. Selected fungal strains across three phyla (Ascomycota: Morchella sextalata , Fusarium falciforme ; Mucoromycota: Linnemannia elongata , Podila minutissima , Benniella ; Basidiomycota: Laccaria bicolor , and Serendipita sp.) were cultured within microhabitats and imaged using time-lapse microscopy to visualize development at the mycelial level. Fungal hyphae of each strain were imaged as they penetrated through microchannels with well-defined pore dimensions. The hyphal penetration rates through the microchannels were quantified via image analysis. Other behaviors, including differences in the degree of branching, peer movement, and tip strength were also recorded for each strain. Our results provide a repeatable and easy-to-use approach for culturing fungi within a microfluidics platform and for visualizing the impact of confinement on hyphal growth and other fungal behaviors pertinent to their remodeling of the underground environment.

Guo, Yi-Syuan (ORCID:0000000340142225)↗

NASA NTRS1993

Intelligent neuroprocessors for in-situ launch vehicle propulsion systems health management

Efficacy of existing on-board propulsion systems health management systems (HMS) are severely impacted by computational limitations (e.g., low sampling rates); paradigmatic limitations (e.g., low-fidelity logic/parameter redlining only, false alarms due to noisy/corrupted sensor signatures, preprogrammed diagnostics only); and telemetry bandwidth limitations on space/ground interactions. Ultra-compact/light, adaptive neural networks with massively parallel, asynchronous, fast reconfigurable and fault-tolerant information processing properties have already demonstrated significant potential for inflight diagnostic analyses and resource allocation with reduced ground dependence. In particular, they can automatically exploit correlation effects across multiple sensor streams (plume analyzer, flow meters, vibration detectors, etc.) so as to detect anomaly signatures that cannot be determined from the exploitation of single sensor. Furthermore, neural networks have already demonstrated the potential for impacting real-time fault recovery in vehicle subsystems by adaptively regulating combustion mixture/power subsystems and optimizing resource utilization under degraded conditions. A class of high-performance neuroprocessors, developed at JPL, that have demonstrated potential for next-generation HMS for a family of space transportation vehicles envisioned for the next few decades, including HLLV, NLS, and space shuttle is presented. Of fundamental interest are intelligent neuroprocessors for real-time plume analysis, optimizing combustion mixture-ratio, and feedback to hydraulic, pneumatic control systems. This class includes concurrently asynchronous reprogrammable, nonvolatile, analog neural processors with high speed, high bandwidth electronic/optical I/O interfaced, with special emphasis on NASA's unique requirements in terms of performance, reliability, ultra-high density ultra-compactness, ultra-light weight devices, radiation hardened devices, power stringency, and long life terms.

Gulati, S.↗

DOE OSTI2025

An End-to-End Framework for Verifying and Validating Manufacturing Design Integrity

Cyber attacks on networked automated manufacturing systems can severely impact part quality. In fact, malicious modifications may be introduced at any point during the manufacturing lifecycle. Therefore, it is vital to verify and validate that manufactured parts conform to their designs. This chapter describes a formal, end-to-end framework that verifies and validates the design integrity of manufactured parts by considering all potential points of alteration during precision manufacturing processes. The framework prevents unauthorized changes to computer-aided designs, verifies the correctness of translations from CAD models to G-code, maintains the integrity of G-code transferred to manufacturing machines, verifies the runtime execution of G-code and part geometry, and considers the contexts of manufacturing machine operations and how manufactured parts could be altered.

Jablonski, Matthew [Cybersecurity Manufacturing In↗

DOE OSTI2024

A New Simplified Discrete Fracture Model for Shearing of Intersecting Fractures and Faults

Abstract Shearing of fractures and faults is important because it can result in permeability change or even induce seismicity—both are keys for efficient and safe energy recovery and storage in Earth systems. Quantitative analysis of shearing of intersecting fractures and faults is challenging because it can involve dynamic frictional contacts that are complicated by deformation of the rock matrix. To predict the shearing of intersecting fractures/faults, we attempt to answer the question of how intersections impact the shearing of a fracture network and whether we can simplify the description as compared to classical discrete fracture network (DFN) models. To answer these questions, we conducted a series of numerical simulations on scenarios for variable numbers of intersecting fractures. All these examples yield consistent results: the results of using DFNs are consistent with those of using hypothetical major paths. This leads to a new model, which we name simplified discrete fracture network model , to analyze shearing of intersecting fractures/faults using major path(s). We found that the intersections of fractures do not fundamentally change the shearing of two intersecting fractures if the intersecting angles are small. Furthermore, increasing the number of fractures/faults may relax the stress as more fractures/faults become available for shearing and distributing the stress. The simplified DFN model, which can capture efficiently the shearing behavior of each major paths from a large number of intersecting fractures/faults, will be a promising conceptual model that is complementary to existing equivalent continuum and discrete fracture models to analyze shearing of intersecting fractures/faults.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Uncertainty bounds for multivariate machine learning predictions on high-strain brittle fracture

Simulation of the crack network evolution on high strain rate impact experiments performed in brittle materials is very compute-intensive. The cost increases even more if multiple simulations are needed to account for the randomness in crack length, location, and orientation, which is inherently found in real-world materials. Constructing a machine learning emulator can make the process faster by orders of magnitude. There has been little work, however, on assessing the error associated with their predictions. Estimating these errors is imperative for meaningful overall uncertainty quantification. In this work, we extend the heteroscedastic uncertainty estimates to bound a multiple output machine learning emulator. Overall, we find that the response prediction is accurate within its predicted errors, but with a somewhat conservative estimate of uncertainty.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2020

Genomic analyses implicate noncoding de novo variants in congenital heart disease

A genetic etiology is identified for one-third of patients with congenital heart disease (CHD), with 8% of cases attributable to coding de novo variants (DNVs). To assess the contribution of noncoding DNVs to CHD, we compared genome sequences from 749 CHD probands and their parents with those from 1,611 unaffected trios. Neural network prediction of noncoding DNV transcriptional impact identified a burden of DNVs in individuals with CHD (n = 2,238 DNVs) compared to controls (n = 4,177; P = 8.7 × 10 -4 ). Independent analyses of enhancers showed an excess of DNVs in associated genes (27 genes versus 3.7 expected, P = 1 × 10 -5 ). We observed significant overlap between these transcription-based approaches (odds ratio (OR) = 2.5, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.1-5.0, P = 5.4 × 10 -3 ). CHD DNVs altered transcription levels in 5 of 31 enhancers assayed. Finally, we observed a DNV burden in RNA-binding-protein regulatory sites (OR = 1.13, 95% CI 1.1-1.2, P = 8.8 × 10 -5 ). Overall, our findings demonstrate an enrichment of potentially disruptive regulatory noncoding DNVs in a fraction of CHD at least as high as that observed for damaging coding DNVs.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Impact of Geomagnetic Induced Current Neutral Blocking Devices on Distance Relays in Sub-transmission Networks with IBR

Geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) can flow through transmission lines during geomagnetic disturbances, such as solar flares or coronal mass ejections. These currents can cause problems like transformer saturation and equipment damage. The most common method of mitigating GICs involves installing GIC neutral blocking devices (NBDs) in transformer neutrals. However, the wide application of capacitive GIC blocking devices may have unintended adverse effects on other devices, such as distance protection relays. As the number of inverter-based resources being connected to the transmission and sub-transmission systems increases, the likelihood of a sub-transmission line protected by a distance relay connected to a transformer with NBDs is increasing. Therefore, distance relays fed by IBRs and transmission lines with GIC-NBDs must be studied. This paper studies the effect of GIC-NBDs on a 69kV sub-transmission line of various lengths fed by a 25 MVA IBR and synchronous source. This work focused on the behavior of the GIC-NBDs using the measured apparent phase-to-ground and phase-to-phase impedance calculated by the relay and the source impedance ratio (SIR) during various electrical faults.

Patel, Trupal R [Sandia National Laboratories (SNL↗

DOE OSTI2022

interflow: A Python package to organize, calculate, and visualize sectoral interdependency flow data

Many economic sectors rely on an uninterrupted “upstream” supply of a resource to conduct their primary functions, leaving them vulnerable to adverse effects should that resource flow be interrupted or compromised (OECD, 2017; U.S. EPA, 2010). Well-known examples of these relationships include water demand by the energy sector (e.g., thermoelectric cooling for nuclear generation) (Grubert & Sanders, 2018; Webber, 2017) and energy demand by the water sector (e.g., electricity required to treat or move water in the public water sector) (Congressional Research Service, 2017) though many others exist. Being able to calculate and document these interdependencies and evaluate where the greatest cross-sectoral intensities and flows exist can reveal opportunities to enhance the overall network. Despite the implications and potential impacts, however, these interconnections and flows have been historically complex to analyze and understand. The interflow package provides a flexible tool to organize, calculate, and visualize (using Sankey diagrams and other visualizations) sectoral interdependency flows for multiple subsectors and resources. This tool can help decision-makers, researchers, and other audiences more easily pull meaning from these interdependencies to reveal multi-faceted opportunities and risks. interflow can help investigate questions such as (1) which sectors have high cross-resource dependencies, (2) how does demand for a resource in various sectors compare across regions, and (3) where the sectoral and regional opportunities are for enhanced efficiency, security, and resiliency.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Precursor Analysis Report: JBS Foods Ransomware Attack 2021

The JBS Foods 2021 Ransomware Attack Precursor Analysis Report leverages publicly available information about the JBS ransomware cyber attack and catalogs anomalous observables for each technique employed in the attack. This analysis is based upon the methodology of the Cybersecurity for the Operational Technology Environment (CyOTE) program. In late May 2021, one of the world’s largest meat producers, JBS Foods, announced they had fallen victim to a worldwide ransomware attack, later found to be REvil ransomware. In the United States alone, JBS Foods accounts for nearly 25% of beef and roughly 20% of pork production. Adversaries initially launched a Distributed Denial of Service (DDoS) attack on the company’s Information Technology (IT) networks in Australia, but the attack impacted operations in Brazil, Canada, and the United States, as well. The attack caused plant operations in all four countries to shut down for at least one day. All nine of the U.S. meatpacking plants temporarily shut down because of the attack. The adversaries initially demanded a $\$$22 million ransom for the company’s data, but later negotiated the ransom down to $\$$11 million even after JBS Foods restored most of their systems. JBS Foods eventually paid the $\$$11 Million for reassurance from the adversaries that none of their customers’ data would be compromised in the future. Despite its short duration, the attack still caused large stocks of meat to spoil. The incident also underscored how adversaries can simultaneously compromise and move laterally through global subsidiaries of an organization. Researchers and analysts identified 22 unique techniques (in a sequence of 21 steps) utilized during the attack with a total of 361 observables using MITRE ATT&CK® for Industrial Control Systems. The CyOTE program assesses observables accompanying techniques used prior to the triggering event to identify opportunities to detect malicious activity. If observables accompanying the attack techniques are perceived and investigated prior to the triggering event, earlier comprehension of malicious activity can take place. Sixteen of the identified techniques used during the JBS Foods cyber attack were precursors to the triggering event. Analysis identified 308 observables associated with these precursor techniques, 163 of which were assessed to have an increased likelihood of being perceived in the 75 days preceding the triggering event. The response and comprehension time could have been reduced if the observables had been identified earlier. The information gathered in this report contributes to a library of observables tied to a repository of artifacts, data sources, and technique detection references for practitioners and developers to support the comprehension of indicators of attack. Asset owners and operators can use these products if they experience similar observables or to prepare for comparable scenarios.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

NASA NTRS1987

Distinct meteoroid families identified on the lunar seismograms

The meteoroid impact-seismic activity data recorded by the Apollo lunar seismic network is examined. The study investigates the difference in temporal distribution between large and small impacts, clustering of impacts in a two-dimensional space of the time of the year and the time of the month, and the relationship of these observations with terrestrial observations. Several distinct families of meteoroids impacting the moon are identified. Most meteoroids producing small impact-seismic events, including ones associated with cometary showers, appear to approach from retrograde heliocentric orbits. In contrast, most meteoroids associated with large impact-seismic events appear to approach from prograde orbits; the observation is consistent with a hypothesis that many of them represent stony asteroidal material. It is suggested that the previously reported discrepancy between lunar and terrestrial meteoroid-flux estimates may be due to the differences in lunar and terrestrial detection efficiency among various families of meteoroids.

Oberst, Jurgen↗

NASA NTRS1990

An extragalactic reference frame from DSN VLBI measurements - 1989

Assessment of the impact of recent improvements Deep Space Network (DSN) instrumentation, as well as of joint data analyses, provide a prognosis for the accuracy level to be expected in future realizations of an inertial radio reference frame. Intercontinental dual-frequency radio interferometric measurements during 68 sessions (including two recent sessions employing Mark III instrumentation) from 1978 to 1989 using NASA's DSN stations in California, Spain, and Australia give 8900 pairs of delay and delay-rate observations. Analysis yields a catalog of positions of 200 extragalactic radio sources north of -45 deg declination. The resulting source-position formal uncertainty distributions peak below 1 milliarcsecond, with 75 percent being smaller than 2 mas. Comparison with independent measurements shows some evidence for systematic errors at the milliarcsecond level.

Sovers, O. J.↗

NASA NTRS1992

ISDN at NASA Lewis Research Center

An expository investigation of the potential impact of the Integrated Services Digital Network (ISDN) at NASA Lewis Research Center is described. To properly frame the subject, the paper contains a detailed survey of the components of Narrowband ISDN. The principles and objectives are presented as decreed by the Consultative Committee for International Telephone and Telegraph (CCITT). The various channel types are delineated and their associated service combinations are described. The subscriber-access network functions are explained pictorially via the ISDN reference configuration. A section on switching techniques is presented to enable the reader to understand the emergence of the concept of fast packet switching. This new technology is designed to operate over the high bandwidth, low error rate transmission media that characterizes the LeRC environment. A brief introduction to the next generation of networks is covered with sections on Broadband ISDM (B-ISDN), Asynchronous Transfer Mode (ATM), and Synchronous Optical Networks (SONET). Applications at LeRC are presented, first in terms of targets of opportunity, then in light of compatibility constraints. In-place pilot projects and testing are described that demonstrate actual usage at LeRC.

Bakes, Catherine Murphy↗

NASA NTRS1991

Ultra low power CMOS technology

This paper discusses the motivation, opportunities, and problems associated with implementing digital logic at very low voltages, including the challenge of making use of the available real estate in 3D multichip modules, energy requirements of very large neural networks, energy optimization metrics and their impact on system design, modeling problems, circuit design constraints, possible fabrication process modifications to improve performance, and barriers to practical implementation.

Burr, J.↗

NASA NTRS1994

S-band and Ku-band return service interference between TDRSS users

The Tracking Data Relay Satellite System (TDRSS) return service performance can be degraded by interference from another user when two or more spacecraft communicate with the same Tracking Data Relay Satellite (TDRS) at the same time. This paper describes the S-band and Ku-band return service self interference environment expected in the 1996 - 2010 timeframe and shows the self-interference expected for selected TDRSS users based on Communications Link Analysis and Simulation System (CLASS) Automated Conflict Resolution System (ACRS) and Interference Monitor (IM) tools. The results show: which user links are susceptible to interference from other users, the interference statistics, and whether or not interference can be avoided with appropriate interference mitigation techniques such as scheduling, cross-polarization, or Pseudo random Noise (PN) spreading. The analysis results enable Space Network (SN) managers to determine the impacts of self-interference on the TDRSS service availability. They also enable project offices to determine whether they should select return service communications parameters, such as polarization and PN spreading, to minimize the probability of being impacted by self-interference; try to schedule TDRSS support around other user spacecraft communications schedules; or accept communication outages due to self-interference.

Harrell, Linda↗

NASA NTRS2020

Enabling Dynamic Vehicle Analyses With Improved Atmospheric Attenuation Models in Glenn Research Center Communication Analysis Suite

To aid in meeting the NASA objective of returning humans to the Moon, the Glenn Research Center’s Communication Analysis Suite was augmented with two distinct capabilities. The first capability added was the vehicle propagator. This allows the addition of dynamic aircraft and ground vehicles around any celestial body within the solar system during an analysis. This functionality interpolates the position and velocity of the vehicle relative to a celestial body at the time steps analyzed using the type of path and either a series of waypoints or a direction and duration of travel. The implications of this new capability include lunar rovers and/or drones, such as Dragonfly, where the vehicle propagator will analyze the communications architecture. The newly created vehicle propagator is now in use in communications studies for the 2024 lunar missions, simulating the movement of lunar rovers across the Moon’s southern pole. The second capability added was the augmentation of the atmospheric attenuation model. The previous model did not have a uniform low-elevation attenuation model due to the trigonometric approximation for path length and the exponential nature of low-elevation scintillation. User-defined weather parameters were also added to the updated atmospheric attenuation model. The previous model solely used tabular data based upon the season and location of the transmitting antenna. Multiple simulations of the same configuration now return different results based on the differing weather parameters. Cognitive communications analysis efforts can use this second capability to generate neural network training data based on differing weather conditions at utilized ground stations, a critical step in allowing neural networks to learn how weather parameters impact communications performance.

vehicle propagation↗

DOE OSTI2024

Control and Optimization of Energy Storage System in Power Distribution System

The widespread adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) and transportation electrification is encumbered by two chief barriers: i) the limited driving range of EVs in the market today and ii) inadequate fast-charging infrastructure for long-distance trips. Extreme fast charging (XFC) technology can recharge EVs in less than 10 minutes for 200 miles range. Firstly, a novel robust optimization-based mixed integer linear programming model is proposed to size a battery energy storage system (BESS) and PV system in an XFCS. In this part, it is assumed that the sizing and location of the XFCS are known. Secondly, the aforesaid assumption is relaxed, and a strategic multi-period coordinated planning model is proposed to optimally site and size BESS-assisted charging stations in a highway transportation network and PV systems in a power distribution network by considering the coupling between both networks. Optimal operation and control of BESS-assisted EV charging stations are vital to alleviate the adverse impact of extreme fast charging of EVs on the host power network. A joint solution is proposed to mitigate the steady state and transient impact of extremefast charging of EVs and ensure grid-friendly integration of XFCSs with the host grid. Lastly, to make the operation of the XFCS cost-effective, a multi-layered energy management framework is proposed for the XFCS by considering forecast uncertainties, monthly demand charges reduction, and BESS degradation.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2020

Sequentially coupled flow and geomechanical simulation with a discrete fracture model for analyzing fracturing fluid recovery and distribution in fractured ultra-low permeability gas reservoirs

More accurate characterization and prediction of the in-situ distribution of fracturing fluid in fractured reservoirs are needed for enhancing well productivity. In this study, an implicit-sequentially coupled flow/geomechanics simulator incorporating an efficient discrete fracture model is developed to model fluid distribution and recovery performance of ultra-low permeability gas reservoirs. The finite-volume and finite-element methods are used for space discretization of the flow and geomechanics equations, respectively, while the backward Euler method is employed for time discretization. The flow and geomechanics equations are solved sequentially based on fixed-stress splitting. An efficient discrete-fracture model is used to explicitly model the fractured system. Flexible unstructured gridding is employed to model arbitrarily-oriented fractures. The interrelations among pore volume, permeability and geomechanical conditions are considered dynamically using two-way coupled flow and geomechanics computations. The geometry of fracture (networks) due to hydraulic fracturing has significant impacts on the fracturing fluid recovery efficiency and ensuing fluid distribution. Under the same injection volume, the fracturing fluid recovery is higher when the fracture geometry is planar. Fluid recovery is relatively lower whenever natural fractures are activated during fracturing treatments; flowback time is also shortened when complex fracture network with enlarged fracture interface is present. Fracturing fluid in hydraulic fractures may leak off into the natural fractures and subsequently imbibes into the surrounding matrix due to capillarity effects. The fracturing fluid recovery and in-situ fluid distribution are sensitive to the shut-in duration and fracture closure behavior. This study analyzes the coupled flow-geomechanical responses of fractured gas reservoirs during the post-fracturing periods. Understanding the fate of the fracturing fluid can provide insights on, to some extent, the stimulated fracture volume, size of the water invasion zone, and efficiency of the fracturing design. The simulation predictions can also provide more accurate initial reservoir conditions (e.g. distributions of different phases and pressure) for long-term well performance estimation.

42 ENGINEERING↗