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At least 361 records · Page 20

Synthetic Scenarios from CMIP5 Model Simulations for Climate Change Impact Assessments in Managed Ecosystems and Water Resources: Case Study in South Asian Countries

Increasing population, urbanization, and associated demand for food production compounded by climate change and variability have important implications for the managed ecosystems and water resources of a region. This is particularly true for south Asia, which supports one quarter of the global population, half of whom live below the poverty line. This region is largely dependent on monsoon precipitation for water. Given the limited resources of the developing countries in this region, the objective of our study was to empirically explore climate change in south Asia up to the year 2099 using monthly simulations from 35 global climate models (GCMs) participating in the fifth phase of the Climate Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5) for two future emission scenarios (representative concentration pathways RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) and provide a wide range of potential climate change outcomes. This was carried out using a three-step procedure: calculating the mean annual, monsoon, and non-monsoon precipitation and temperatures; estimating the percent change from historical conditions; and developing scenario funnels and synthetic scenarios. This methodology was applied for the entire south Asia region; however, the percent change information generated at 1.5deg grid scale can be used to generate scenarios at finer spatial scales. Our results showed a high variability in the future change in precipitation (-23% to 52%, maximum in the non-monsoon season) and temperature (0.8% to 2.1%) in the region. Temperatures in the region consistently increased, especially in the Himalayan region, which could have impacts including a faster retreat of glaciers and increased floods. It could also change rivers from perennial to seasonal, leading to significant challenges in water management. Increasing temperatures could further stress groundwater reservoirs, leading to withdrawal rates that become even more unsustainable. The high precipitation variability (with higher propensity for localized intense rainfall events) observed in the region can be a key factor for managed ecosystems and water management and could also lead to more incidence of severe urban flooding. The results could be used to assess both mitigation and adaptation alternatives to reduce vulnerabilities in managed ecosystems (agricultural and urban) and water resources.

agriculture↗

High-resolution heat-transfer-coefficient maps applicable to compound-curve surfaces using liquid crystals in a transient wind tunnel

Tests were performed in a transient heat transfer tunnel in which the model under test was preheated prior to allowing room temperature air to be suddenly drawn over the model. The resulting movement of isothermal contours on the model is revealed using a surface coating of thermochromic liquid crystals that display distinctive colors at particular temperatures. A video record is obtained of a temperature and time data pair for all points on the model during a single test. Experiments on a duct model are reported in which the model was preheated using a hot air stream. A manner in which initial model temperature nonuniformities could be taken into account was investigated. The duct model was also tested with a steady-state measurement technique and results were compared with the transient measurements, but recognizing that differences existed between the upstream thermal boundary conditions. The steady-state and transient measurements were shown to be consistent with predicted values. The main advantage of this transient heat transfer technique using liquid crystals is that since the test model need not be actively heated, high-resolution measurements on surfaces with complex shapes may be obtained.

Jones, T. V.↗

High-resolution heat-transfer-coefficient maps applicable to compound-curve surfaces using liquid crystals in a transient wind tunnel

Tests were performed in a transient heat transfer tunnel in which the model under test was preheated prior to allowing room temperature air to be suddenly drawn over the model. The resulting movement of isothermal contours on the model is revealed using a surface coating of thermochromic liquid crystals that display distinctive colors at particular temperatures. A video record is obtained of a temperature and time data pair for all points on the model during a single test. Experiments on a duct model are reported in which the model was preheated using a hot air stream. A manner in which initial model temperature nonuniformities could be taken into account was investigated. The duct model was also tested with a steady-state measurement technique and results were compared with the transient measurements, but recognizing that differences existed between the upstream thermal boundary conditions. The steady-state and transient measurements were shown to be consistent with predicted values. The main advantage of this transient heat transfer technique using liquid crystals is that since the test model need not be actively heated, high-resolution measurements on surfaces with complex shapes may be obtained.

Jones, Terry V.↗

Methyl bromide: ocean sources, ocean sinks, and climate sensitivity

The oceans play an important role in the geochemical cycle of methyl bromide (CH3Br), the major carrier of O3-destroying bromine to the stratosphere. The quantity of CH3Br produced annually in seawater is comparable to the amount entering the atmosphere each year from natural and anthropogenic sources. The production mechanism is unknown but may be biological. Most of this CH3Br is consumed in situ by hydrolysis or reaction with chloride. The size of the fraction which escapes to the atmosphere is poorly constrained; measurements in seawater and the atmosphere have been used to justify both a large oceanic CH3Br flux to the atmosphere and a small net ocean sink. Since the consumption reactions are extremely temperature-sensitive, small temperature variations have large effects on the CH3Br concentration in seawater, and therefore on the exchange between the atmosphere and the ocean. The net CH3Br flux is also sensitive to variations in the rate of CH3Br production. We have quantified these effects using a simple steady state mass balance model. When CH3Br production rates are linearly scaled with seawater chlorophyll content, this model reproduces the latitudinal variations in marine CH3Br concentrations observed in the east Pacific Ocean by Singh et al. [1983] and by Lobert et al. [1995]. The apparent correlation of CH3Br production with primary production explains the discrepancies between the two observational studies, strengthening recent suggestions that the open ocean is a small net sink for atmospheric CH3Br, rather than a large net source. The Southern Ocean is implicated as a possible large net source of CH3Br to the atmosphere. Since our model indicates that both the direction and magnitude of CH3Br exchange between the atmosphere and ocean are extremely sensitive to temperature and marine productivity, and since the rate of CH3Br production in the oceans is comparable to the rate at which this compound is introduced to the atmosphere, even small perturbations to temperature or productivity can modify atmospheric CH3Br. Therefore atmospheric CH3Br should be sensitive to climate conditions. Our modeling indicates that climate-induced CH3Br variations can be larger than those resulting from small (+/- 25%) changes in the anthropogenic source, assuming that this source comprises less than half of all inputs. Future measurements of marine CH3Br, temperature, and primary production should be combined with such models to determine the relationship between marine biological activity and CH3Br production. Better understanding of the biological term is especially important to assess the importance of non-anthropogenic sources to stratospheric ozone loss and the sensitivity of these sources to global climate change.

NASA Discipline Exobiology↗

High Resolution Global Coupled Chemistry-Meteorology Simulations Using the NASA GEOS Composition Forecast System, GEOS-CF

We will give an overview of the NASA Global Earth Observing System Composition Forecast system (GEOS-CF), a high-resolution (0.25 degree) global composition model developed by the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO). This system combines the GEOS weather and aerosol model with the GEOS-Chem chemistry module (version 12) to provide a holistic view of atmospheric composition that captures a wide range of air pollutants such as ozone, nitrogen oxides, volatile organic compounds, and fine particulate matter. The spatial resolution of 0.25 degrees (approx. 25 km) is fine enough to resolve local features such as nighttime ozone titration previously resolved only by urban or regional models. Furthermore, since there are no boundary conditions for a global model, the GEOS-CF captures large-scale processes such as long-range transport of air pollutants from forest fires. Comparisons against surface observations highlight the model’s overall capability to reproduce the diurnal variability of air pollutants under a variety of meteorological conditions. In addition, we show how machine learning techniques can be used to correct for sub-grid variability, which further improves model estimates at a given surface observation site. The GEOS-CF system offers a new tool for scientists and the public health community alike and is being developed jointly with several government and non-profit partners. As an example, we will show the use of GEOS-CF during the Satellite Coastal and Oceanic Atmospheric Pollution Experiment (SCOAPE). The campaign, conducted in collaboration between NASA and the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM), aims to investigate the response of onshore air quality to Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) oil and gas exploration, development and production. Detailed gas-phase chemistry, as provided by GEOS-CF, is critical to understand the formation of air pollution related to hydrocarbon emissions from offshore oil and gas activities. The accuracy of GEOS-CF can be further improved by incorporating detailed offshore emissions compiled by BOEM.

Knowland, K. Emma↗

Evolved Gas Measurements Planned for the Lower Layers of the Gale Crater Mound with the Sample Analysis at Mars Instrument Suite

The lower mound strata of Gale Crater provide a diverse set of chemical environments for exploration by the varied tools of the Curiosity Rover of the Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) Mission. Orbital imaging and spectroscopy clearly reveal distinct layers of hydrated minerals, sulfates, and clays with abundant evidence of a variety of fluvial processes. The three instruments of the MSL Sample Analysis at aMars (SAM) investigation, the Quadrupole Mass Spectrometer (QMS), the Tunable Laser Spectrometer (TLS), and the Gas Chromatograph (GC) are designed to analyze either atmospheric gases or volatiles thermally evolved or chemically extracted from powdered rock or soil. The presence or absence of organic compounds in these layers is of great interest since such an in situ search for this type of record has not been successfully implemented since the mid-60s Viking GCMS experiments. However, regardless of the outcome of the analysis for organics, the abundance and isotopic composition of thermally evolved inorganic compounds should also provide a rich data set to complement the mineralogical and elemental information provided by other MSL instruments. In addition, these evolved gas analysis (EGA) experiments will help test sedimentary models proposed by Malin and Edgett (2000) and then further developed by Milliken et al (2010) for Gale Crater. In the SAM EGA experiments the evolution temperatures of H2O, CO2, SO2, O2, or other simple compounds as the samples are heated in a helium stream to 1000 C provides information on mineral types and their associations. The isotopic composition of O, H, C, and S can be precisely determined in several evolved compounds and compared with the present day atmosphere. Such SAM results might be able to test mineralogical evidence of changing sedimentary and alteration processes over an extended period of time. For example, Bibring et al (2006) have suggested such a major shift from early nonacidic to later acidic alteration. We will illustrate through a variety of evolved gas experiments implemented under SAM-like gas flow and temperature ramp conditions on terrestrial analog minerals on high fidelity Sam breadboards the type of chemical information we expect SAM to provide.

Mahaffy, Paul↗

Crystal growth from the vapour phase (ASTP experiment MA-085)

The positive effects of microgravity on crystal quality and fundamental properties of the vapor transport reaction were established by analyzing the results of three transport experiments on multi-component systems performed during the Apollo Soyuz Test Project (ASTP) mission. The systems employed were GeSe(0.99)Te(0.01) - GeI4 (A), GeS(0.98)Se(0.02) - GeCl4 (B), and GeS - GeCl4-Ar (C). The crystallographic analysis is based on a direct comparison of space and ground-based (prototype) crystals, employing X-ray diffraction, microprobe, microscopic, and chemical etching techniques. The results demonstrate a considerable improvement of the space-grown crystals in terms of chemical and crystalline homogeneity, surface morphology, and bulk perfection relative to ground specimens. The confirmation of greater mass transport rates than predicted for micro-gravity by present vapor transport models is of basic scientific and practical importance for the improvement of transport models and techniques on earth and for the development of a transport model for space conditions. The internal consistency and agreement between ASTP and Skylab results obtained for different compounds, transport agents, and temperature gradients strongly support the validity of these observations. The combined findings of improved crystal quality and high mass transport rates are of technological significance for space-processing applications.

Wiedemeier, H.↗

Nitrogen and Oxygen Photochemistry following SL9

The collision of Shoemaker Levy 9 (SL9) with Jupiter caused many new molecular species to be deposited in the Jovian stratosphere. We use a photochemical model to follow the evolution of the impact derived species. Our results regarding the nitrogen and oxygen compounds are presented here. NH3 photolysis initiates the nitrogen photochemistry. Much of the nitrogen ends up in N2, nitrogen-sulfur compounds, and HCN, but NH3 and nitriles such as C2H3CN may also exist in observable quantities for a year or so after the impacts. Oxygen species survive for a long time in the Jovian stratosphere. The only major oxygen containing compounds that exhibit dramatic changes in the lower stratosphere in the first year following the impacts are SO, SO2, and OCS - H2O, CO2, and CO are comparatively stable. We discuss the important photochemical processes operating on the nitrogen and oxygen species in the Jovian stratosphere, make prediction concerning the temporal variation of the major species, and identify molecules that might act as good tracers for atmospheric dynamics.

Moses, Julianne I.↗

Organic Chemistry of Meteorites

Studies of the molecular structures and C,N,H-isotopic compositions of organic matter in meteorites reveal a complex history beginning in the parent interstellar cloud which spawned the solar system. Incorporation of interstellar dust and gas in the protosolar nebula followed by further thermal and aqueous processing on primordial parent bodies of carbonaceous, meteorites have produced an inventory of diverse organic compounds including classes now utilized in biochemistry. This inventory represents one possible set of reactants for chemical models for the origin of living systems on the early Earth. Evidence bearing on the history of meteoritic organic matter from astronomical observations and laboratory investigations will be reviewed and future research directions discussed.

Chang, S.↗

Characterization of Operational Performance of Ka-Band Links in Deep Space Network

This paper presents a characterization of performance of 32-GHz Ka-band link in an operational environment. The data come from tracking of Kepler spacecraft by the NASA Deep Space Network (DSN) in the past few years. Ka-band link offers a significant signal-to-noise advantage compared to the more common X- or S-band; however, it is subject to more signal fluctuation caused by the weather. Kepler is the first mission supported by the DSN that solely rely on the higher deep space Ka-band communications link to return its high-rate science data. A well characterization of the operational performance of Kepler would benefit future Ka-band missions, especially for those operating with smaller link margin. The study examines how weather conditions at the DSN facilities (e.g., winds, clouds, rains) affect the received signal, particularly on telemetry data. It addresses questions such as how often the weather affects the link and how much degradation the link could suffer. Among the 22 Ka-band passes in 2012, heavy clouds affected one pass and two passes were impacted by high winds. The adverse weather caused at time as much as 3-dB instantaneous change in the signal to noise ratio (SNR). Estimates of degradation to the SNR as a function of wind speeds are captured based on observations. This study also quantifies the probability distribution of the variation of received signal power. With such information, future missions can better plan their link design. An optimal link design aims for just having enough margin to realize the data return with a targeted probability, with neither having too much margin that it reduces the downlink data rate nor insufficient reserve that causes frequent data outages. The study tries to provide some answers to the questions such as how much does SNR vary from one tracking pass to the next, and what is the cumulative distribution of signal fluctuation. Regarding the signal variation over many tracking passes, we found that the averaged symbol SNR (SSNR) for each pass changed by as much as 4 dB. Some variations were due to geometry such as the changing distance between spacecraft and Earth and different antenna pointing elevations. Other variations seem to be random in nature, reflecting the randomness of operational environments. Some passes were found to be quite stable, with a standard deviation of symbol SNR around 0.25 dB while others had greater variation, up to 1.4 dB. Overall, the cumulative distribution of the symbol SNR reflects that 50% of the fluctuations was less than 0.6 dB, 90% of fluctuation was within 1.6 dB and 95% within 2.2 dB. Some of the challenges in data processing, validation and modeling were captured in this paper. We observed some inconsistent measurements where operational data significantly deviate from a normal expectation. These inconsistent measurements made it hard to develop an accurate and consistent performance model, such as the degradation of signal SNR as a function of high wind. The difficulty was compounded by the fact that there were only a few Ka-band passes observed in high winds.

Pham, Timothy↗

The composition and origin of the moon

A model is presented of the moon as a high temperature condensate from the solar nebula. The Ca, Al, and Ti rich compounds condense first in a cooling nebula. The initial high temperature mineralogy is gehlenite, spinel, perovskite, Ca-Al-rich pyroxenes, and anorthite. Type 3 carbonaceous chondrites such as the Allende meteorite are composed primarily of these minerals and are highly enriched in refractories. These inclusions can yield basalt and anorthosite in the proportions required to eliminate the europium anomaly, leaving a residual spinel-melilite interior. The inferred high U content of the lunar interior, both from the Allende analogy and the high heat flow, indicates a high temperature interior. The model is consistent with extensive early, shallow melting at 3 A.E., and with high deep internal temperatures. It is predicted that the outer 250 km is rich in plagioclase and FeO. The low iron content of the interior raises the interior temperatures estimated from electrical conductivity by some 800 C.

Anderson, D. L.↗

Computing Needs for Astrobiology: Models of Planetary Formation

Theories of planet formation indicate that a diverse range of physical and chemical processes determine the characteristics of a planetary system. Extensive numerical modeling is required to understand how planetary systems form, and to make quantitative assessments of the factors which determine the masses, spacings and volatile compound inventories of planets and small bodies within a planetary system. Fluid flow problems associated with the formation and evolution of protoplanetary disks include specific local calculations to provide physical insight, which are best performed on workstations, and large multifaceted simulations which require supercomputers with large memories. Formation and early growth of planetesimals display a similar range of computational requirements. Modeling the late stages of planetary accumulation is very CPU intensive, as it requires following a simple system of approx. hundreds of bodies for millions of dynamical (orbital) times. These varied computational needs could be met in the most cost-effective manner by a diverse set of computers, including workstations for individual PI's and dedicated time on various types of supercomputers which are specialized for differing tasks.

Lissauer, Jack J.↗

The migration of a compound drop due to thermocapillarity

The quasistatic thermocapillary motion of a compound drop in an unbounded fluid possessing a uniform temperature gradient is analyzed. For completeness, gravitational effects are included in the treatment. The general model is formulated, and the equations for the concentric case are solved using spherical polar coordinates, while the eccentric case is handled using bispherical coordinates. Results are given for the velocity of the drop as well as that of the droplet with respect to the drop, along with useful approximations. Illustrative results are presented graphically for the thermocapillary migration of a compound drop in the special case when the droplet is a gas bubble. In addition to the velocities of the drop and the bubble, representative isotherms and streamlines also are presented which display interesting qualitative features.

Morton, David S.↗

Twinning, Epitaxy and Domain Switching in Ferroelastic Inclusion Compounds

Our research is in the area of solid-state organic chemistry, which lies at the interface between physical organic chemistry and materials science. We use crystalline solids as models to probe fundamental issues about physical processes, molecular interactions and chemical reactions that are important for fabrication, stabilization and application of technological materials. Much of our most recent work has focused on the phenomena of ferroelastic and ferroelectric domain switching, in which application of an external force or electric field to a crystal causes the molecules inside the crystal to reorient, in tandem, to a new orientational state. To better understand and control the domain switching process, we have designed and synthesized over twenty closely related, ferroelastic organic crystals. Our approach has been to use crystalline inclusion compounds, in which one molecule (the guest) is trapped within the crystalline framework of a second molecule (the host). By keeping the host constant and varying the proportions and kinds of guests, it has been possible to tailor these materials so that domain switching is rapid and reversible (which is desirable for high technology applications). Inclusion compounds therefore serve as powerful systems for understanding the specific molecular mechanisms that control domain switching.

Hollingsworth, Mark D.↗

The effects of propagation and source distribution on cosmic ray composition and anisotropy.

We consider the propagation and source distribution of cosmic rays. The principal requirement for the various models we consider is that they should be capable of holding particles in dense regions of the galactic disk for periods of time sufficient to produce the observed fragmentation products of cosmic rays. This can be achieved by both simple and compound diffusion provided that suitable mean free paths and boundary conditions are chosen. The bulk of the anisotropy is caused by the discrete nature of the cosmic ray sources. However, models which reproduce the fragmentation products will in general yield anisotropies consistent with available upper limits.

Ramaty, R.↗

Quantifying the benefits of improved satellite remote-sensing observations for inverse modeling of NOx and NMVOC emissions

This study aims to demonstrate the benefits of using novel high spatiotemporal retrieval products from newer satellites for top-down emission estimates of nitrogen oxides (NO x ) and non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs) for the summer of 2019 over the contiguous United States. Recent satellite retrievals have not only advanced spatiotemporal resolution but also greatly reduced error and uncertainty due to reduced noise in the retrievals compared to spaceborne sensors launched in the past. We applied inverse modeling techniques using tropospheric nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ) and formaldehyde (H-CHO) column retrieval products from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) and TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) in conjunction with the Weather Research Forecast and Community Multiscale Air Quality Modeling system (WRF-CMAQ). In order to provide a better representation of background chemical composition and avoid misalignment of emission adjustment, we applied monthly scaling factors for ozone (O 3 ) and CO boundary concentrations in addition to the inclusion of lightning and aviation emissions. Satellite-constrained NO x and NMVOCs posterior emissions showed a mitigated discrepancy between observed and modeled columns. The improvement in the model performance was greater when using TROPOMI, primarily benefiting from reduced errors/biases of the satellite retrievals that enabled us to explore corresponding changes in O 3 concentrations and production sensitivity regimes using the ratio of H-CHO and NO 2 .

remote sensing↗

Venus Clouds: A dirty hydrochloric acid model

The spectral and polarization data for Venus are consistent with micron-sized, aerosol cloud particles of hydrochloric acid containing soluble and insoluble iron compounds, whose source could be volcanic or crustal dust. The ultraviolet features could arise from variations in the Fe-HCl concentration in the cloud particles.

Hapke, B.↗