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At least 361 records · Page 20

Sensitivity analysis as an aid in modelling and control of (poorly-defined) ecological systems

A literature review of the use of sensitivity analyses in modelling nonlinear, ill-defined systems, such as ecological interactions is presented. Discussions of previous work, and a proposed scheme for generalized sensitivity analysis applicable to ill-defined systems are included. This scheme considers classes of mathematical models, problem-defining behavior, analysis procedures (especially the use of Monte-Carlo methods), sensitivity ranking of parameters, and extension to control system design.

Hornberger, G. M.↗

Towards a greater understanding of serrated flows in an Al-containing high-entropy-based alloy

A serrated flow, which occurs in a material undergoing mechanical deformation, is a complex process of great engineering significance. Here statistical, dynamical, and multifractal modeling and analyses were performed on the stress-time series to characterize and model the stress-drop behavior of an Al 0.5 CoCrCuFeNi high-entropy alloy (HEA). Results indicate that the spatiotemporal dynamics of the serrated flow is affected by changes in the strain rate and test temperature. The sample entropy, in general, was found to be the highest in the samples tested at 500°C. The higher complexity in the serrated flow at this temperature appeared to be associated with the stress-drop behavior that had intermediate values in terms of the maximum stress drop, the multifractality of the data set, and the histogram distributions. Moreover, the sample entropy was the lowest for the samples tested at 600 °C. The lower complexity values were associated with a wider multifractal spectrum and a less uniform and sparser distribution of the stress-drop magnitudes. In terms of the serration types, Type-C serrations were related to the lowest complexity values, widest multifractal spectra, and higher probability of exhibiting larger stress drops. Conversely, Type-A and B serrations were associated with the higher complexity, narrower spectra, and lower probability of higher stress drops. In conclusion, the body-centered-cubic (BCC) structure and the fully-ordered L1 2 nano-particles were found to emerge in the samples at 600°C and are thought to be linked to the decreased spatiotemporal correlations in the stressdrop behavior.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Characterization of Metal Matrix Composites

Experimental methods were developed, adapted, and applied to the characterization of a metal matrix composite system, namely, silicon carbide/aluminim (SCS-2/6061 Al), and its constituents. The silicon carbide fiber was characterized by determining its modulus, strength, and coefficient of thermal expansion. The aluminum matrix was characterized thermomechanically up to 399 C (750 F) at two strain rates. The unidirectional SiC/Al composite was characterized mechanically under longitudinal, transverse, and in-plane shear loading up to 399 C (750 F). Isothermal and non-isothermal creep behavior was also measured. The applicability of a proposed set of multifactor thermoviscoplastic nonlinear constitutive relations and a computer code was investigated. Agreement between predictions and experimental results was shown in a few cases. The elastoplastic thermomechanical behavior of the composite was also described by a number of new analytical models developed or adapted for the material system studied. These models include the rule of mixtures, composite cylinder model with various thermoelastoplastic analyses and a model based on average field theory. In most cases satisfactory agreement was demonstrated between analytical predictions and experimental results for the cases of stress-strain behavior and thermal deformation behavior at different temperatures. In addition, some models yielded detailed three-dimensional stress distributions in the constituents within the composite.

Daniel, I. M.↗

Neptune Aerocapture Systems Analysis

A Neptune Aerocapture Systems Analysis is completed to determine the feasibility, benefit and risk of an aeroshell aerocapture system for Neptune and to identify technology gaps and technology performance goals. The high fidelity systems analysis is completed by a five center NASA team and includes the following disciplines and analyses: science; mission design; aeroshell configuration screening and definition; interplanetary navigation analyses; atmosphere modeling; computational fluid dynamics for aerodynamic performance and database definition; initial stability analyses; guidance development; atmospheric flight simulation; computational fluid dynamics and radiation analyses for aeroheating environment definition; thermal protection system design, concepts and sizing; mass properties; structures; spacecraft design and packaging; and mass sensitivities. Results show that aerocapture can deliver 1.4 times more mass to Neptune orbit than an all-propulsive system for the same launch vehicle. In addition aerocapture results in a 3-4 year reduction in trip time compared to all-propulsive systems. Aerocapture is feasible and performance is adequate for the Neptune aerocapture mission. Monte Carlo simulation results show 100% successful capture for all cases including conservative assumptions on atmosphere and navigation. Enabling technologies for this mission include TPS manufacturing; and aerothermodynamic methods and validation for determining coupled 3-D convection, radiation and ablation aeroheating rates and loads, and the effects on surface recession.

Lockwood, Mary Kae↗

Extending ISS Life Beyond 2030

The United States On-orbit Segment (USOS) of the International Space Station (ISS) was designed to meet a 15-year on-orbit life. Since the first hardware was launched in late 1998, the ISS would have reached its end of life in 2013. With the realization that the ISS would be needed well into the next decade, and beyond, a multi-disciplinary effort was undertaken to extend the ISS’ life through 2028 and to show that further extension to 2040 and beyond is not only feasible but achievable. Currently, NASA and the ISS international partners have agreed to extend its operations through 2030. This collaborative effort ensures that the ISS will continue to serve as a hub for scientific research, international cooperation, and educational endeavors for the next decade. Maintaining a continuous human presence in Low Earth Orbit (LEO) is desirable for testing new LEO, lunar, and deep-space technologies; conducting scientific research in micro-gravity for the benefit of life on Earth; and enabling a seamless transition of capabilities to one or more commercially owned and operated destinations. This paper provides an overview of the ISS life extension project with a particular focus on the analytical approach used to assess the primary structure. This analytical approach includes future operations planning, critical location screening, on-orbit dynamic load simulation, on-orbit optical property degradation studies, on-orbit thermal analyses, spectra generation, crack model idealization, fracture analyses, and post processing. Structural life results and identification of the most critical on-orbit events are presented. Also addressed are life extension approaches for other affected sub-systems, including: 1. Secondary Structure. 2. Materials. Evaluations consider environmental exposure to atomic oxygen, ionizing and gamma radiation, fluids, etc. Life limited materials, wear, and usage effects are also considered. 3. Environmental Control and Life Support Systems, including oxygen supply and generation, water recovery and management, and regenerative hardware. Evaluations are performed to determine which hardware can be run to failure and which are assessed for life extension. 4. Electrical power system. ISS is powered by eight channels of solar arrays and an electrical energy storage system providing 357 kWh power. Power generation and balance analyses are performed considering hardware degradation and increasing power demand. 5. Logistics and maintenance. Analyses are performed to determine critical spares required to maintain functionality. Consideration is given to supply chain health, obsolescence issues, onboard stowage availability, and up-mass capability. The successful life extension results have built confidence to safely operate, maintain and enhance the ISS well beyond the current decade. Extending the operational life of the ISS maintains an international presence in LEO and serves to avoid a gap in capability necessary to fulfill the exploration and research needs of NASA, international partners, and industry without interruption until a commercial space station is operational.

design life↗

Laying a Foundation for Performance Assessment (PA) Model Development - 19267

Performance Assessment (PA) models are abstractions of real-world conditions. As abstractions, modelers must make a number of decisions regarding model complexity and which features, events, and processes (FEPs) will be represented. To ensure that such decisions are transparent to stakeholders, modelers should document their approach and how this approach influences conceptual model development. This paper describes one such approach. Examples are used to describe an analysis of the potential FEPs. Through the FEPs analysis, all potentially relevant FEPs can be identified. These potentially relevant FEPs are then used to develop a detailed conceptual model known as the Central Scenario, which includes a description of the assessment context, the key features of the site and the closure system, and the expected processes of the system. From this Central Scenario conceptual model, mathematical models can be developed and implemented within modeling software and used to demonstrate compliance to PA performance objectives. FEPs which are beyond the scope of the Central Scenario are identified and used as the basis for developing alternative conceptual models (ACMs) or sensitivity analyses. Once these models and modeling cases are defined, the necessary inputs can be identified and defined. (author)

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Cos-theta Nb$_{3}$Sn Dipole for a Very Large Hadron Collider

A series of 1 m long Nb$_{3}$Sn dipole models with a magnetic field of 10–11 T in a 43.5 mm bore was developed at FNAL as part of a research and development effort for a Very Large Hadron Collider. This chapter describes the magnet design in single-aperture and twin-aperture configurations, details of the magnet short model fabrication, and summarizes the results of magnetic, mechanical, and quench protection analyses, and model test results.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

FY23 Progress on Computational Modeling of the Water-Based NSTF

This report summarizes the system-level modeling effort by Argonne National Laboratory (Argonne) of the Natural convection Shutdown heat removal Test Facility (NSTF) in FY23. As a continuation of the modeling effort from FY22, this year’s work focuses on improving the RELAP5-3D model developed previously for two-phase flow simulations. The RELAP5-3D model is updated to more accurately capture the heat loss experienced by the facility. The updated model is compared against experimental data for benchmarking purposes of the RELAP5-3D input model. By correctly accounting for heat loss, the updated RELAP5-3D model can now predict the two-phase baseline case more accurately. The onset and the duration of instability are captured well by the model. Furthermore, analyses are performed to better understand the instability mechanism experienced by the flow where the expansion of the boiling boundary in the chimney is studied in details and the fundamental frequencies of the oscillations are obtained. The updated RELAP5-3D model is further compared against four fault conditions, namely the reduction of riser header inlet flow area, depletion of system inventory, blocked riser channels, and static boiling scenario. For each fault condition, minor modifications and tuning are performed to improve the predictions of the model. The purpose of the analyses is to investigate the capability of RELAP5-3D in predicting complex two-phase flows in possible accident scenarios in actual Reactor Cavity Cooling System (RCCS). Overall, the model is able to capture the behaviors and trends of these fault conditions relatively well. Some discrepancies remain between the experimental data and the predictions, many of which are likely due to the differences in the predicted and experimental vapor generation rate. Future work will focus on the continued development of the current RELAP5-3D input model of the NSTF to both improve the accuracy of the model’s predictive capability and continue supporting the experimental program needs. The mutually beneficial relationship between analysis and experimental efforts has become integral to the parent NSTF program, and the greater objective to fully understand and accurately predict the heat removal performance of a full scale RCCS concept.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Charge transport in organic crystals: Critical role of correlated fluctuations unveiled by analysis of Feynman diagrams

Organic crystals have unique charge transport properties that lie somewhere between delocalised band-type transport and localised hopping transport. In this paper, we use a stochastic tight-binding model to explore how dynamical disorder in organic crystals affects charge transport. By analysing the model in terms of Feynman diagrams (virtual processes), we expose the crucial role of correlated dynamical disorder to the charge transport dynamics in the model at short times in the order of a few hundred femtoseconds. Under correlated dynamical disorder, the random motions of molecules in the crystal allow for low-energy “bonding”-type interactions between neighboring molecular orbitals can persist over long periods of time. On the other hand, the dependence of charge transport on correlated dynamical disorder also tends to localize the charge, as correlated disorder cannot persist far in space. This concept of correlation may be the “missing link” for describing the intermediate regime between band transport and hopping transport that occurs in organic crystals.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

International Space Station Future Correlation Analysis Improvements

Ongoing modal analyses and model correlation are performed on different configurations of the International Space Station (ISS). These analyses utilize on-orbit dynamic measurements collected using four main ISS instrumentation systems: External Wireless Instrumentation System (EWIS), Internal Wireless Instrumentation System (IWIS), Space Acceleration Measurement System (SAMS), and Structural Dynamic Measurement System (SDMS). Remote Sensor Units (RSUs) are network relay stations that acquire flight data from sensors. Measured data is stored in the Remote Sensor Unit (RSU) until it receives a command to download data via RF to the Network Control Unit (NCU). Since each RSU has its own clock, it is necessary to synchronize measurements before analysis. Imprecise synchronization impacts analysis results. A study was performed to evaluate three different synchronization techniques: (i) measurements visually aligned to analytical time-response data using model comparison, (ii) Frequency Domain Decomposition (FDD), and (iii) lag from cross-correlation to align measurements. This paper presents the results of this study.

time synchronization↗

Intragenomic conflict over bet-hedging

Genomic imprinting, where an allele’s expression pattern depends on its parental origin, is thought to result primarily from an intragenomic evolutionary conflict. Imprinted genes are widely expressed in the brain and have been linked to various phenotypes, including behaviours related to risk tolerance.Here, we analyse a model of evolutionary bet-hedging in a system with imprinted gene expression. Previous analyses of bet-hedging have shown that natural selection may favour alleles and traits that reduce reproductive variance, even at the expense of reducing mean reproductive success, with the trade-off between mean and variance depending on the population size. In species where the sexes have different reproductive variances, this bet-hedging trade-off differs between maternally and paternally inherited alleles. Where males have the higher reproductive variance, alleles are more strongly selected to reduce variance when paternally inherited than when maternally inherited. We connect this result to phenotypes connected with specific imprinted genes, including delay discounting and social dominance. The empirical patterns are consistent with paternally expressed imprinted genes promoting risk-averse behaviours that reduce reproductive variance. Conversely, maternally expressed imprinted genes promote risk-tolerant, variance-increasing behaviours. Finally, we indicate how future research might further test the hypotheses suggested by our analysis.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Isotopically resolved neutron total cross sections at intermediate energies

The neutron total cross sections σ tot of 16,18 O, 58 64 Ni, 103 Rh, and 112,124 Sn have been measured at the Los Alamos Neutron Science Center from low to intermediate energies (3 ≤ E lab ≤ 450 MeV) by leveraging wave-form-digitizer technology. The σ tot relative differences between isotopes are presented, revealing additional information about the isovector components needed for an accurate optical-model description away from stability. Digitizer-enabled σ tot -measurement techniques are discussed and a series of uncertainty-quantified dispersive optical model (DOM) analyses using these new data is presented, validating the use of the DOM for modeling light systems ( 16,18 O) and systems with open neutron shells ( 58,64 Ni and 112,124 Sn). Here, the valence-nucleon spectroscopic factors extracted for each isotope reaffirm the usefulness of high-energy proton reaction cross sections for characterizing depletion from the mean-field expectation.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

First-Principles Thermodynamic Assessments of Sr-Containing Secondary Phase Formation in La1-xSrxMnO3±δ Perovskites for Solid Oxide Cell Applications

Sr-secondary phase formation is a potentially significant degradation mode threatening solid-oxide cell (SOC) commercial viability. A first-principles thermodynamic study was performed for rhombohedral perovskite (La1-xSrx) MnO3±δ (LSM) to assess its stability against Sr secondary phase formation in SOC applications. In this work, the Sr secondary phase formation reaction free energies were determined by combining ab initio lattice dynamics calculations for the solid phases and an ab initio thermodynamics approach for the gas phases. Furthermore, this approach goes beyond previous thermodynamic modeling studies by integrating first-principles based point-defect equilibria into the analyses. The modeling results indicate an increased tendency to form SrO oxide from LSM upon decreasing the oxygen partial pressure. Additionally, enhancing factors to form the Sr-related secondary phase from the associated SrO activity in LSM are further quantified by considering the equilibrium of SrO reacting with contaminant gas species as a function of temperature and gas pressure.

Defect and phase stability↗

As-Built Simulation of the High Flux Isotope Reactor

The Oak Ridge National Laboratory High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR) is an 85 MWt flux trap-type research reactor that supports key research missions, including isotope production, materials irradiation, and neutron scattering. The core consists of an inner and an outer fuel element containing 171 and 369 involute-shaped plates, respectively. The thin fuel plates consist of a U 3 O 8 -Al dispersion fuel (highly enriched), an aluminum-based filler, and aluminum cladding. The fuel meat thickness is varied across the width of the involute plate to reduce thermal flux peaks at the radial edges of the fuel elements. Some deviation from the designed fuel meat shaping is allowed during manufacturing. A homogeneity scan of each fuel plate checks for potential anomalies in the fuel distribution by scanning the surface of the plate and comparing the attenuation of the beam to calibration standards. While typical HFIR simulations use homogenized fuel regions, explicit models of the plates were developed under the Low-Enriched Uranium Conversion Program. These explicit models typically include one inner and one outer fuel plate with nominal fuel distributions, and then the plates are duplicated to fill the space of the corresponding fuel element. Therefore, data extracted from these simulations are limited to azimuthally averaged quantities. To determine the reactivity and physics impacts of an as-built outer fuel element and generate azimuthally dependent data in the element, 369 unique fuel plate models were generated and positioned. This model generates the three-dimensional (i.e., radial–axial–azimuthal) plate power profile, where the azimuthal profile is impacted by features within the adjacent control element region and beryllium reflector. For an as-built model of the outer fuel element, plate-specific homogeneity data, 235 U loading, enrichment, and channel thickness measurements were translated into the model, yielding a much more varied azimuthal power profile encompassed by uncertainty factors in analyses. These models were run with the ORNL-TN and Shift Monte Carlo tools, and they contained upwards of 500,000 cells and 100,000 unique tallies.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Characterizing diurnal and seasonal cycles in monsoon systems from TRMM and CEOP observations

The CEOP Inter-Monsoon Study (CIMS) is one of the two main science drivers of CEOP that aims to (a) provide better understanding of fundamental physical processes in monsoon regions around the world, and (b) demonstrate the synergy and utility of CEOP data in providing a pathway for model physics evaluation and improvement. As the data collection phase for EOP-3 and EOP-4 is being completed, two full annual cycles (2003-2004) of research-quality data sets from satellites, reference sites, and model output location time series (MOLTS) have been processed and made available for data analyses and model validation studies. This article presents preliminary results of a CIMS study aimed at the characterization and intercomparison of all major monsoon systems. The CEOP reference site data proved its value in such exercises by being a powerful tool to cross-validate the TRMM data, and to intercompare with multi-model results in ongoing work. We use 6 years (1998-2003) of pentad CEOP/TRMM data with 2deg x 2.5deg latitude-longitude grid, over the domain of interests to define the monsoon climatological diurnal and annual cycles for the East Asian Monsoon (EAM), the South Asian Monsoon (SAM), the West Africa Monsoon (WAM), the North America/Mexican Monsoon (NAM), the South American Summer Monsoon (SASM) and the Australian Monsoon (AUM). As noted, the TRMM data used in the study were cross-validated using CEOP reference site data, where applicable. Results show that the observed diurnal cycle of rain peaked around late afternoon over monsoon land, and early morning over the oceans. The diurnal cycles in models tend to peak 2-3 hours earlier than observed. The seasonal cycles of the EAM and SAM show the strongest continentality, i.e, strong control by continental processes away from the ITCZ. The WAM, and the AUM shows the less continentality, i.e, strong control by the oceanic ITCZ.

Lau, William K. M.↗

Characterizing Diurnal and Seasonal Cycles in Monsoon Systems from TRMM and CEOP Observations

The CEOP Inter-Monsoon Study (CIMS) is one of the two main science drivers of CEOP that aims to (a) provide better understanding of fundamental physical processes in monsoon regions around the world, and (b) demonstrate the synergy and utility of CEOP data in providing a pathway for model physics evaluation and improvement. As the data collection phase for EOP-3 and EOP-4 is being completed, two full annual cycles (2003-2004) of research-quality data sets from satellites, reference sites, and model output location time series (MOLTS) have been processed and made available for data analyses and model validation studies. This article presents preliminary results of a CIMS study aimed at the characterization and intercomparison of all major monsoon systems. The CEOP reference site data proved its value in such exercises by being a powerful tool to cross-validate the TRMM data, and to intercompare with multi-model results in ongoing work. We use 6 years (1998-2003) of pentad CEOP/TRMM data with 2 deg x 2.5 deg. latitude-longitude grid, over the domain of interests to define the monsoon climatological diurnal and annual cycles for the East Asian Monsoon (EAM), the South Asian Monsoon (SAM), the West Africa Monsoon (WAM), the North America/Mexican Monsoon (NAM), the South American Summer Monsoon (SASM) and the Australian Monsoon (AUM). As noted, the TRMM data used in the study were cross-validated using CEOP reference site data, where applicable. Results show that the observed diurnal cycle of rain peaked around late afternoon over monsoon land, and early morning over the oceans. The diurnal cycles in models tend to peak 2-3 hours earlier than observed. The seasonal cycles of the EAM and SAM show the strongest continentality, i.e, strong control by continental processes away from the ITCZ. The WAM, and the AUM shows the less continentality, i.e, strong control by the oceanic ITCZ.

Lau, William K. M.↗

An Overview of WFIRST-AFTA Coronagraph Modelling

The WFIRST/AFTA 2.4 m space telescope currently under study includes a stellar coronagraph for the imaging and spectral characterization of extrasolar planets. Based largely on performance predictions from end-to-end optical propagation modeling, promising coronagraphic methods were selected in late 2013 for further consideration for use on AFTA. Since those downselect analyses further modeling work has been done on evaluating refined coronagraph designs, wavefront sensing and control, detector representation, and time-dependent effects. Thermal, structural, ray trace, and diffraction propagation models are used in these studies. Presented here is the progress to date and plans for future analyses.

Krist, John↗