Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “likelihood”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 361 records · Page 20
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Reconstructing porous media using generative flow networks

One area of intense scientific interest for the study of sandstones, carbonates, and shale at the pore scale is the use of limited image and petrophysical data to generate multiple realizations of a rock’s pore structure. Such images aid efforts to quantify uncertainty in petrophysical properties, including porosity–permeability transforms. We develop and evaluate a deep learning-based method to synthesize porous media volumes using a so-called generative flow model trained on x-ray microscope images of rock texture and pore structure. These models are optimized on a log-likelihood objective and they synthesize large and realistic three-dimensional images. Further, we demonstrate the rapid generation of sandstone image volumes that display realism as gauged by quantitative comparison of topological features using Minkowski functionals of porosity, specific surface area, and the Euler–Poincaré characteristic (i.e., pore connectivity). We also evaluate the single-phase permeability using Navier–Stokes and lattice Boltzmann methods and show that transport properties of the generated samples match measured trends.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

A historical perspective on the regulation of cellulose biosynthesis

Cellulose is a β-1,4 linked glucose polymer that is synthesized by higher plants, algae and even by some bacteria and animals, making it the most abundant polymer on earth. As the major load bearing structure of the plant cell wall, it is hugely important in terms of plant growth and development, and in recent years it has gained interest for its biotechnological applications. Naturally, there has been a large concerted research effort to uncover the regulatory mechanisms underpinning cellulose synthesis. During the last century, several major breakthroughs in our understanding of cellulose synthesis in algae, bacteria, and plants have been pivotal in advancing the field of cellulose research, improving the likelihood that cellulose synthesis could be feasibly adapted for sustainable purposes. In this work, we will summarize the major hypotheses and advancements made during the last century on the regulation of cellulose biosynthesis, focusing on Arabidopsis thaliana.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Singly and doubly oxidized carbenes and their applications in catalysis

Over the last three decades, the highly tunable properties of N-heterocyclic carbenes (NHCs) and other stable singlet carbenes have led to a variety of applications. This perspective shows a novel facet of carbenes—i.e., their reductive properties—that allows them to function as catalysts in single-electron transfer (SET) reactions. The isolation and even the spectroscopic characterization of a singly oxidized carbene have yet to be done, but these species readily abstract hydrogen atoms while giving back the carbene conjugate acid, which behaves as the resting state of catalytic cycles. In sharp contrast, a doubly oxidized carbene has been isolated, and there is a strong likelihood that many other carbene dications will be isolated. Their first Lewis acidity is very high, suggesting possible applications in Lewis acid catalysis.

dication↗
DOE OSTI2021

Solving inverse problems in stochastic models using deep neural networks and adversarial training

Inverse problems associated with stochastic models constitute a significant portion of scientific and engineering applications. In such cases the unknown quantities are distributions. The applicability of traditional methods is limited because of their demanding assumptions or prohibitive computational consumption; for example, maximum likelihood methods require closed-form density functions, and Markov Chain Monte Carlo needs a large number of simulations. We propose a new method that estimates the unknown distribution by matching the statistical properties between observed and simulated random processes. We leverage the expressive power of neural networks to approximate the unknown distribution and use a discriminative neural network for computing the statistical discrepancies between the observed and simulated random processes. Here we demonstrated numerically that the proposed methods can estimate both the model parameters and learn complicated unknown distributions.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Latent map Gaussian processes for mixed variable metamodeling

Gaussian processes (GPs) are ubiquitously used in sciences and engineering as metamodels. Standard GPs, however, can only handle numerical or quantitative variables. Here we introduce latent map Gaussian processes (LMGPs) that inherit the attractive properties of GPs and are also applicable to mixed data which have both quantitative and qualitative inputs. The core idea behind LMGPs is to learn a continuous, low-dimensional latent space or manifold which encodes all qualitative inputs. To learn this manifold, we first assign a unique prior vector representation to each combination of qualitative inputs. We then use a low-rank linear map to project these priors on a manifold that characterizes the posterior representations. As the posteriors are quantitative, they can be directly used in any standard correlation function such as the Gaussian or Matern. Hence, the optimal map and the corresponding manifold, along with other hyperparameters of the correlation function, can be systematically learned via maximum likelihood estimation. Through a wide range of analytic and real-world examples, we demonstrate the advantages of LMGPs over state-of-the-art methods in terms of accuracy and versatility. In particular, we show that LMGPs can handle variable-length inputs, have an explainable neural network interpretation, and provide insights into how qualitative inputs affect the response or interact with each other. We also employ LMGPs in Bayesian optimization and illustrate that they can discover optimal compound compositions more efficiently than conventional methods that convert compositions to qualitative variables via manual featurization.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Bi-fidelity variational auto-encoder for uncertainty quantification

Quantifying the uncertainty of quantities of interest (QoIs) from physical systems is a primary objective in model validation. However, achieving this goal entails balancing the need for computational efficiency with the requirement for numerical accuracy. To address this trade-off, we propose a novel bi-fidelity formulation of variational auto-encoders (BF-VAE) designed to estimate the uncertainty associated with a QoI from low-fidelity (LF) and high-fidelity (HF) samples of the QoI. Here, this model allows for the approximation of the statistics of the HF QoI by leveraging information derived from its LF counterpart. Specifically, we design a bi-fidelity auto-regressive model in the latent space which is integrated within the VAE’s probabilistic encoder–decoder structure. An effective algorithm is proposed to maximize the variational lower bound of the HF log-likelihood in the presence of limited HF data, resulting in the synthesis of HF realizations with a reduced computational cost. Additionally, we introduce the concept of the bi-fidelity information bottleneck (BF-IB) to provide an information-theoretic interpretation of the proposed BF-VAE model. Our numerical results demonstrate that the BF-VAE leads to considerably improved accuracy, as compared to a VAE trained using only HF data, when limited HF data is available.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Uncertainty quantification of graph convolution neural network models of evolving processes

The application of neural network models to scientific machine learning tasks has proliferated in recent years. In particular, neural networks have proved to be adept at modeling processes with spatial–temporal complexity. Nevertheless, these highly parameterized models have garnered skepticism in their ability to produce outputs with quantified error bounds over the regimes of interest. Hence there is a need to find uncertainty quantification methods that are suitable for neural networks. In this work we present comparisons of the parametric uncertainty quantification of neural networks modeling complex spatial–temporal processes with Hamiltonian Monte Carlo and Stein variational gradient descent and its projected variant. Specifically we apply these methods to graph convolutional neural network models of evolving systems modeled with recurrent neural network and neural ordinary differential equations architectures. We show that Stein variational inference is a viable alternative to Monte Carlo methods with some clear advantages for complex neural network models. For our exemplars, Stein variational interference gave similar pushed forward uncertainty profiles through time compared to Hamiltonian Monte Carlo, albeit with generally more generous variance. As a result, projected Stein variational gradient descent also produced similar uncertainty profiles to the non-projected counterpart, but large reductions in the active weight space were confounded by the stability of the neural network predictions and the convoluted likelihood landscape.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Direct numerical simulation of a high-pressure hydrogen micromix combustor: Flame structure and stabilisation mechanism

A high-pressure hydrogen micromix combustor has been investigated using direct numerical simulation with detailed chemistry to examine the flame structure and stabilisation mechanism. The configuration of the combustor was based on the design by Schefer et al., using numerical periodicity to mimic a large square array. A precursor simulation of an opposed jet-in-crossflow was first conducted to generate appropriate partially-premixed inflow boundary conditions for the subsequent reacting simulation. The resulting flame can be described as an predominantly-lean inhomogeneously-premixed lifted jet flame. Five main zones were identified: a jet mixing region, a core flame, a peripheral flame, a recirculation zone, and combustion products. The core flame, situated over the jet mixing region, was found to burn as a thin reaction front, responsible for over 85% of the total fuel consumption. The peripheral flame shrouded the core flame, had low mean flow with high turbulence, and burned at very lean conditions (in the distributed burning regime). It was shown that turbulent premixed flame propagation was an order-of-magnitude too slow to stabilise the flame at these conditions. Stabilisation was identified to be due to ignition events resulting from turbulent mixing of fuel from the jet into mean recirculation of very lean hot products. Ignition events were found to correlate with shear-driven Kelvin-Helmholtz vortices, and increased in likelihood with streamwise distance. At the flame base, isolated events were observed, which developed into rapidly burning flame kernels that were blown downstream. Further downstream, near-simultaneous spatially-distributed ignition events were observed, which appeared more like ignition sheets. The paper concludes with a broader discussion that considers generalising from the conditions considered here.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

Standards, dissemination, and best practices in systems biology

In this study, the reproducibility of scientific research is crucial to the success of the scientific method. Here, we review the current best practices when publishing mechanistic models in systems biology. We recommend, where possible, to use software engineering strategies such as testing, verification, validation, documentation, versioning, iterative development, and continuous integration. In addition, adhering to the Findable, Accessible, Interoperable, and Reusable modeling principles allows other scientists to collaborate and build off of each other’s work. Existing standards such as Systems Biology Markup Language, CellML, or Simulation Experiment Description Markup Language can greatly improve the likelihood that a published model is reproducible, especially if such models are deposited in well-established model repositories. Where models are published in executable programming languages, the source code and their data should be published as open-source in public code repositories together with any documentation and testing code. For complex models, we recommend container-based solutions where any software dependencies and the run-time context can be easily replicated.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Accelerating Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling with diffusion models

Global fits of physics models require efficient methods for exploring high-dimensional and/or multimodal posterior functions. We introduce a novel method for accelerating Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling by pairing a Metropolis-Hastings algorithm with a diffusion model that can draw global samples with the aim of approximating the posterior. We briefly review diffusion models in the context of image synthesis before providing a streamlined diffusion model tailored towards low-dimensional data arrays. We then present our adapted Metropolis-Hastings algorithm which combines local proposals with global proposals taken from a diffusion model that is regularly trained on the samples produced during the MCMC run. Our approach leads to a significant reduction in the number of likelihood evaluations required to obtain an accurate representation of the Bayesian posterior across several analytic functions, as well as for a physical example based on a global fit of parton distribution functions. Our method is extensible to other MCMC techniques, and we briefly compare our method to similar approaches based on normalising flows. A code implementation can be found at https://github.com/NickHunt-Smith/MCMC-diffusion.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Super-CMB fluctuations and the Hubble tension

We study the covariance in the angular power spectrum estimates of CMB fluctuations when the primordial fluctuations are non-Gaussian. The non-Gaussian covariance comes from a nonzero connected four-point correlation function -- or the trispectrum in Fourier space -- and can be large when long-wavelength (super-CMB) modes are strongly coupled to short-wavelength modes. The effect of such non-Gaussian covariance can be modeled through additional freedom in the theoretical CMB angular power spectrum and can lead to different inferred values of the standard cosmological parameters relative to those in ΛCDM. Taking the collapsed limit of the primordial trispectrum in the quasi-single field inflation model as an example, we study how the six standard ΛCDM parameters shift when two additional parameters describing the trispectrum are allowed. The reduced statistical significance of the Hubble tension in the extended model allows us to combine the {\it Planck} temperature data and the type Ia supernovae data from Panstarrs with the distance-ladder measurement of the Hubble constant. Here, this combination of data shows strong evidence for a primordial trispectrum-induced non-Gaussian covariance, with a likelihood improvement of Δχ 2 ≈ –15 (with two additional parameters) relative to ΛCDM.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

$\mathrm{D}$ark$\mathrm{F}$lux: A new tool to analyze indirect-detection spectra of next-generation dark matter models

Here we present DarkFlux, a software tool designed to analyze indirect-detection signatures for next-generation models of dark matter (DM) with multiple annihilation channels. Version 1.0 of this tool accepts user-generated models with 2→2 tree-level dark matter annihilation to pairs of Standard Model (SM) particles and analyzes DM annihilation to γ rays. The tool consists of three modules, which can be run in a loop in order to scan over DM mass if desired: The annihilation fraction module calls an internal installation of MadDM, a dark matter phenomenology plugin for the Monte Carlo event generator MadGraph5 _ aMC@NLO, to compute the thermally averaged cross section $\langle σv\rangle_i$ for each annihilation channel $χχ$ ($\bar{χ}$,$χ^†$)→ i $\∈{SM, SM}. . The module then computes the fractional annihilation rate (annihilation fraction) into each channel. The flux module combines the flux spectrum from each annihilation channel, weighted by the appropriate annihilation fractions, to compute the total flux at Earth due to DM annihilation. In DarkFlux v1.0, this module specifically computes the γ-ray flux for each channel using the publicly available PPPC4DMID tables. The analysis module compares the total flux to observational data and computes the upper limit at 95% confidence level (CL) on the total thermally averaged DM annihilation cross section. In DarkFlux v1.0, this module compares the total γ-ray flux to a joint-likelihood analysis of fifteen dwarf spheroidal galaxies (dSphs) analyzed by the Fermi-LAT collaboration. DarkFlux v1.0 automatically provides data tables and can plot the output of these three modules. In this manual, we briefly motivate this indirect-detection computer tool and review the essential DM physics. We then describe the several modules of DarkFlux in greater detail. Finally, we show how to install and run DarkFlux and provide two worked examples demonstrating its capabilities.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

A dataset of eco-evidence tools to inform early-stage environmental impact assessments of hydropower development

The datasets described herein provide the foundation for a decision support prototype (DSP) toolkit aimed at assisting stakeholders in determining evidence of which aspects of river ecosystems have been impacted by hydropower. The DSP toolkit and its application are presented and described in the article “Evidence-based indicator approach to guide preliminary environmental impact assessments of hydropower development” [1]. Development of the DSP and the output for decision support centralize around 42 river function indicators describing the dimensionality of river ecosystems through six main categories: biota and biodiversity, water quality, hydrology, geomorphology, land cover, and river connectivity. Three main tools are represented in the DSP: A science-based questionnaire (SBQ), an environmental envelope model (EEM), and a river function linkage assessment tool (RFLAT). The SBQ is a structured survey-style questionnaire whose objective is to provide evidence of which indicators have been impacted by hydropower. Based on a global literature review, 140 questions were developed from general hypotheses regarding the impacts of dams on rivers. The EEM is a model to predict the likelihood of hydropower impacting indicators based on a several variables. The intended use of the EEM is for situations of new hydropower development where results of the SBQ are incomplete or highly uncertain. The EEM was developed through the compilation of a dataset containing attributes of dams, reservoirs, and geospatial information on environmental concerns, which was combined with data on ecological indicators documented at those sites through literature review. The model operates through 247 “envelopes” and weighting factors, representing the individual effect of each variable on each indicator, all available through spreadsheets. Finally, the RFLAT is a tool to examine causal relationships amongst indicators. Inter-indicator relationships were hypothesized based on literature review and summarized into node and edge datasets to represent the structure of a graphical network. Bayes theorem was used estimate conditional probabilities of inter-indicator relationships based on the output of the SBQ. Nodes and edges were imported into R programming environment to visualize ecological indicator networks. The datasets can be expanded upon and enriched with more detailed questions for the SBQ, building upon the EEM with to develop more sophisticated models, and identifying new relationships for the RFALT. Additionally, once the tools are applied to numerous hydropower developments, the output of the tools (e.g. evidence of impacted indicators) becomes a very useful dataset for meta-analyses of hydropower impacts.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Linking habitat suitability with a longleaf pine-hardwood model: Building a species-predictive fire-land management framework

Active management of fire-dependent ecosystems for specific species leads to complex tradeoffs, which affect conservation outcomes to other species. Therefore a multi-species evaluation of management actions is required. Habitat Suitability Models (HSMs) can help in predicting the likelihood of species occurrence using corresponding environmental variables and empirical relationships that link occurrence with specific environmental conditions. Incorporating multiple species into HSMs and relating them to habitat dynamics is crucial for ecosystems that require active management with prescribed fire. To address this issue, we developed multi-species HSM driven within an existing population model of the longleaf pine-hardwood ecosystem to assess the suitability of an ecosystem given different fire management strategies and environmental conditions. The population model used in this study provides spatial and temporal changes of longleaf pine-hardwood habitat structure in response to fire. These habitat values are used by the HSM to calculate habitat suitability for three threatened and endangered faunal species of this ecosystem, which all thrive with frequent fire, but have unique habitat requirements. Transient habitat conditions are traced to predict longleaf pine ecosystem trajectories under various management strategies, thereby evaluating current land management actions, such as thinning or prescribed fire frequencies. We tested a suite of environmental conditions to emphasize the sensitivity of the species to different fire management actions. The results of our modeling suggest that maximum suitable habitat for all three species can be achieved with fire frequency occurring at approximately once every three years. The modeling results support current management actions and provide a new habitat assessment tool that incorporates ecological factors for multiple species, thus providing for habitat optimization.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Probabilistic feasibility assessment of sequestration reliance for climate targets

Countries worldwide are transforming their energy systems to achieve Carbon-Neutrality. Investing in renewable resources-based technologies and implementing Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) are common strategies to achieve higher sequestration levels. Negative emissions through Bioenergy with CCS are expected to play an essential role in the transition to full decarbonization. On top of that, biomass is a limited resource that depends on environmental factors, which create uncertainties related to the amount that can be sustainably provided to the energy system. Here this study emphasizes the relevance of variability in carbon sequestration for achieving climate targets by 2050. Here this paper proposes a probabilistic approach that integrates the Global Change Analysis Model for Latin America (GCAM-LA) with a chance constraint approach. GCAM-LA is used to assess the impact on the energy sector of different limits of sustainable biomass and carbon budget scenarios. The risk associated with exceeding the sequestration capacity of a given region is modeled via Chance Constraint. Results show that electrification is an appropriate long-term decarbonization strategy. It smoothes the effects of uncertainty in sequestration capacity and responds to end-user demands. For this case study, higher levels of electrification are obtained at likelihood levels >66% for end-use sectors.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Policy choices and outcomes for offshore wind auctions globally

Offshore wind energy is rapidly expanding, facilitated largely through auctions run by governments. We provide a detailed quantified overview of utilised auction schemes, including geographical spread, volumes, results, and design specifications. Our comprehensive global dataset reveals heterogeneous designs. Although most auction designs provide some form of revenue stabilisation, their specific instrument choices vary and include feed-in tariffs, one-sided and two-sided contracts for difference, mandated power purchase agreements, and mandated renewable energy certificates. We review the schemes used in all eight major offshore wind jurisdictions across Europe, Asia, and North America and evaluate bids in their jurisdictional context. We analyse cost competitiveness, likelihood of timely construction, occurrence of strategic bidding, and identify jurisdictional aspects that might have influenced auction results. We find that auctions are embedded within their respective regulatory and market design context, and are remarkably diverse, though with regional similarities. Auctions in each jurisdiction have evolved and tend to become more exposed to market price risks over time. Less mature markets are more prone to make use of lower-risk designs. Still, some form of revenue stabilisation is employed for all auctioned offshore wind energy farms analysed here, regardless of the specific policy choices. Our data confirm a coincidence of declining costs and growing diffusion of auction regimes.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Techno-Economic Analysis of Recycling Strategies for Catalyst and Acid During Catalytic Graphitization

With the aim of meeting the urgent demand for active anode materials (AAM) in energy storage systems, bio-based graphite (biographite) emerges as an affordable solution to de-risk the turbulent supply chain of critical minerals. Anode grade biographite requires high crystallinity and purity, which can be achieved by catalytic graphitization with iron, followed by acid washing. Therefore, a well-conceived process integration that recycles catalyst can be the starting point to commercialization. This study evaluates closed-loop catalyst recovery, and byproducts valorization scenarios through a technoeconomic framework to help understand the scale-up potential of biographite. For the acid washing, three reactors in series meet the required biographite purity at 99.95%. Iron and acid recovery can reduce material consumption and waste generation by ~95%, albeit at the expense of ~80% increase in capital costs. Recovery scenarios present similar capital and operational expenses, yielding minimum selling prices (MSP) near $6 kg-1 of biographite. Monte Carlo methodology reveals that feedstock price accounts for ~60% of MSP variance, followed by plant capacity ~20%. The likelihood of reaching a competitive profit margin of 30% in the U.S. AAM market sits at 85% average for recovery scenarios, and 103% when iron oxide is sold as byproduct. Additionally, an IRR >= 15% can be achieved for half of Monte Carlo simulations, representing promising early-stage results. Biographite production offers a strategic pathway to stabilize the anode market beyond China by integrating established technologies for a scalable, economically viable, and sustainable process. The role of catalyst recovery and byproducts utilization is critical for advancing the biomaterials industry.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

How deep is your soil? Quantifying and spatially analyzing understudied deep soil in the United States

Deep soil is largely understudied and important in understanding biogeochemical processes in soil. Here, understudied soil is defined as the difference between soil studied to a known depth and the estimated bedrock depth. To understand more about deep soil, the understudied soil in the US was quantified and spatially analyzed using soil survey data and model estimates of bedrock depth. An equation was derived to find understudied soil using the dataset parameters “max lower depth studied”, “depth to bedrock”, and “likelihood of bedrock in the top 200 cm”. The survey data and bedrock model revealed that soil has been studied to an average depth of 1-2 meters, and the average depth to bedrock is 20 meters. Soil data density in the soil surveys was greatest in the West Coast, Midwest, and areas historically managed for agricultural, while the non-contiguous US and interior West were underrepresented. The soil had been studied deeper than the estimated soil depth in 455 out of 56,889 observation points concentrated in Alaska, California, Texas, Florida, Puerto Rico, and the US Virgin Islands. To understand the diversity and any taxonomic bias of the global soil data available, soil order was compared to US-based National Resource Conservation Service percentages and it was found that Oxisols, Alfisols, Ultisols, Andisols, and Histosols were overrepresented while Gelisols, Aridisols, Vertisols, Entisols, and Spodosols are underrepresented. Soil depth is important in exploring the complexity of biogeochemical processes that take place in soil.

Bedrock↗