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At least 361 records · Page 20

Interpreting strain tensor data to characterize and monitor reservoirs for CO2 storage and other applications

Recent advances in instrumentation have made it feasible to measure the transient strain tensor caused by small changes in fluid volume or pressure in the subsurface and this has opened the door to new opportunities for characterization and monitoring. We have deployed strainmeters and then conducted injection well tests in an underlying reservoir at 530m depth. The resulting data indicated that the horizontal strain at shallow strainmeters (30 to 40m depth) was tensile and the vertical strain was compressive. The radial strain was less than the horizontal strain, and the strain rates decreased from 100 nanostrain/day to roughly 10 n/d over a few days. The signal at two strainmeters at shallow depth were consistent, although the magnitude of the horizontal strains were different reflecting the different radial directions from the well. The signal at a deep strainmeter deployed at reservoir depth was much different, with tensile vertical strains and compressive horizontal strains. These data can be interpreted by inverting poroelastic forward models developed using numerical and analytical methods. The average horizontal strain in the caprock resembles the transient pressure in the underlying reservoir and classic type-curve methods from transient well testing can be used for preliminary interpretations of strain data. We have developed closed-form analytical solutions to a pressurized poroelastic inclusion and inhomogeneity in a half-space. This model is fast and can be inverted to estimate reservoir stiffness and geometry. Numerical models developed using finite element methods allow more details of the subsurface to be included in the inversion, but they require much longer run times and this makes inversion cumbersome using standard methods. We have developed an inversion approach that uses a proxy model created using machine learning to do most of the forward calculations. The proxy model is periodically updated and refined using the finite element model to ensure accuracy. This approach significantly reduces the computational requirements and makes it feasible to use Bayesian inversion with large numerical models. We have shown that the strain tensor in the caprock is sensitive to pressure in the reservoir, boundaries in the reservoir, and pressure in the caprock caused by leaks. These results indicate that coupling strain tensor data with inversion has the potential to help evaluate reservoirs during initial characterization, and to monitor them during the CO2 injection and storage process.

Murdoch, Larry↗

Conditional diffusion machine-learning framework for mapping valence electron distribution from convergent beam electron diffraction

Quantitative convergent beam electron diffraction (CBED) enables determination of aspherical valence electron distributions through refinement of low-order structure factors, which are highly sensitive to chemical bonding and charge density variations. However, conventional quantitative CBED (QCBED) requires solving a highly nonlinear inverse problem with many coupled parameters, and computationally intensive dynamical diffraction calculations, making it time-consuming and difficult to apply to complex systems. More broadly, reconstructing charge density and orbital electron distribution from diffraction data has long been a central challenge in both x-ray and electron crystallography. Here, in this study, we introduce an artificial-intelligence (AI)-based framework that replaces traditional refinement with a data-driven inverse solver. Using a large synthetic CBED dataset generated by Bloch-wave simulations, we train a conditional diffusion model to directly infer crystal structural parameters and multipole density formalism parameters, and hence valence electron distributions, from CBED patterns alone. By learning from forward simulations across realistic parameter space, the model effectively solves the inverse problem. Compared with direct regression approaches, the diffusion-based framework provides posterior parameter distributions for rigorous uncertainty quantification while preserving quantitative fidelity and reducing analysis time by orders of magnitude. By eliminating the need for external single-crystal x-ray diffraction data and complex nonlinear refinement, this approach enables practical, high-throughput, and in situ quantitative CBED, enabling real-time mapping of valence electron distributions and their correlation with functional responses in quantum and energy materials.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Quantifying and Visualizing Uncertainty for Source Localisation in Electrocardiographic Imaging

Electrocardiographic imaging (ECGI) presents a clinical opportunity to noninvasively understand the sources of arrhythmias for individual patients. To help increase the effectiveness of ECGI, we provide new ways to visualise associated measurement and modelling errors. Here, we study source localisation uncertainty in two steps: First, we perform Monte Carlo simulations of a simple inverse ECGI source localisation model with error sampling to understand the variations in ECGI solutions. Second, we present multiple visualisation techniques, including confidence maps, level-sets, and topology-based visualisations, to better understand uncertainty in source localization. Our approach offers a new way to study uncertainty in the ECGI pipeline.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Assessment of Crustal Leg Uncertainties for RSTT Path-dependent Uncertainty

The Regional Seismic Travel Time (RSTT) model and software were recently updated to allow for path-dependent uncertainty (PDU) estimates for travel-time (Begnaud et al. 2021; Begnaud et al. 2020). Begnaud et al. (2021) describes the process of improving the current distance-dependent uncertainty parameterization for RSTT using a random effects model (REM) to estimate slowness (inverse velocity) uncertainty as a mean squared error for each model parameter. The REM separates the error between observed slowness and model predicted slowness into bias and random components. The PDU is calculated by integrating these mean squared errors along a seismic-phase ray path.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Skyrmions and hopfions in three-dimensional frustrated magnets

Here, a model of an inversion-symmetric frustrated spin system is introduced which hosts three-dimensional extensions of magnetic skyrmions. In the continuum approximation, this model reduces to a nonlinear sigma model on a squashed sphere that has a natural interpolating parameter. At one limit of the parameter, the model reduces to a frustrated magnetic system earlier considered by Sutcliffe as a host to hopfions, and in the other limit, it becomes very similar to the 3D Skyrme model. To better understand the relation between hopfions and 3D skyrmions, a model interpolating between the Faddeev-Niemi and the Skyrme models is reconsidered and it is shown that energies of the solitons obey a linear Bogomol'nyi-Prasad-Sommerfeld bound. The 3D skyrmions in the frustrated magnetic model are found and compared to the rational map ansatz.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Ab initio multishell valence-space Hamiltonians and the island of inversion

In the shell-model framework, valence-space Hamiltonians connecting multiple major-oscillator shells are of key interest for investigating the physics of neutron-rich nuclei, which have been the subject of intense experimental activity for decades. Here we present an extension of the ab initio valence-space in-medium similarity renormalization group, which allows the derivation of such Hamiltonians nonperturbatively. Starting from initial two- and three-nucleon forces from chiral effective field theory, we then calculate properties of nuclei in the important island-of-inversion region above oxygen, so far unexplored with ab initio methods. In this work, our results in the neon and magnesium isotopes indicate the importance of neutron excitation from the $\textit{sd}$ to $\textit{pf}$ shells and ground states dominated by intruder configurations around $\textit{N}$ = 20, consistent with the conclusions from phenomenological studies. We also benchmark the excitation spectrum of 16 O with coupled-cluster theory, finding generally good agreement, and discuss implications for ground-state energies and charge radii in oxygen and calcium isotopes. Finally we outline the proper procedure for treating the longstanding issue of center-of-mass contamination, and show that with a particular choice of valence space, these spurious states can be removed successfully.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

MSD CoP Webinar: Modeling the Operations of Reservoir Systems with LLMs and Inverse Reinforcement Learning

Context: This panel featured three presentations centered on the common theme of applying LLMs and inverse reinforcement learning (IRL) to capture the complex human-environment interactions that are central to the operation of reservoir systems. Dr. Wyatt Arnold will kick off the webinar with a talk on how analyzing LLM chain-of-thought reasoning reveals sophisticated quantitative justification and risk awareness, showing promise as a bridge between quantitative models and value-driven water management decisions. Next, Dr. Matteo Giuliani will build on this with a discussion demonstrating that AI- and IRL-driven approaches can infer the trade-offs between flood control and water supply using historical observations. Finally, Dr. Rohan Singh Wilkho will close the webinar with a talk establishing IRL as a generalizable diagnostic tool for decoding decision-making in managed hydrologic and human-infrastructure systems. Across the three presentations, the application of LLMs and IRL opens new possibilities for the development of adaptive, transparent, and human-aware models supporting water management in an increasingly uncertain future. Presenters: Wyatt Arnold (Politecnico di Milano); Matteo Giuliani (Politecnico di Milano); Rohan Singh Wilkho (Cornell University) Moderator: Patrick M. Reed (MSD CoP Facilitation Team); Stefano Galelli (MSD CoP AI Working Group Co-Chair); David Gold (MSD CoP AI Working Group Co-Chair) This webinar was held on: June 23rd, 2026 from 12-1 PM EST.

Arnold, Wyatt [Politecnico di Milano]↗

TRINIDI: Time-of-Flight Resonance Imaging With Neutrons for Isotopic Density Inference

Accurate reconstruction of 2D and 3D isotope densities is a desired capability with great potential impact in applications such as evaluation and development of next-generation nuclear fuels. Neutron time-of-flight (TOF) resonance imaging offers a potential approach by exploiting the characteristic neutron absorption spectra of each isotope. However, it is a major challenge to compute quantitatively accurate images due to a variety of confounding effects such as severe Poisson noise, background scatter, beam non-uniformity, absorption non-linearity, and extended source pulse duration. We present the TRINIDI algorithm which is based on a two-step process in which we first estimate the neutron flux and background counts, and then reconstruct the areal densities of each isotope and pixel. Both components are based on the inversion of a forward model that accounts for the highly non-linear absorption, energy-dependent emission profile, and Poisson noise, while also modeling the substantial spatio-temporal variation of the background and flux. Further, to do this, we formulate the non-linear inverse problem as two optimization problems that are solved in sequence. We demonstrate on both synthetic and measured data that TRINIDI can reconstruct quantitatively accurate 2D views of isotopic areal density that can then be reconstructed into quantitatively accurate 3D volumes of isotopic volumetric density.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Electron-Only Magnetic Reconnection and Inverse Magnetic-Energy Transfer at Subion Scales

We derive, and validate numerically, an analytical model for electron-only magnetic reconnection applicable to strongly magnetized plasmas. Our model predicts subion-scale reconnection rates significantly higher than those pertaining to large-scale reconnection, aligning with recent observations and simulations. Here, we apply this reconnection model to the problem of inverse magnetic energy transfer at subion scales. We derive time-dependent scaling laws for the magnetic energy decay and the typical magnetic structure dimensions that differ from those previously found in the magnetohydrodynamics regime. These scaling laws are validated via two- and three-dimensional simulations, demonstrating that subion-scale magnetic fields can reach large, system-size scales via successive coalescence.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Crustal and uppermost mantle structure near the Gloria Fault, North Atlantic, from ocean bottom seismometer surface wave observations

SUMMARY In this work, we present both 1-D and 3-D shear wave velocity (Vs) models of the oceanic crust and uppermost mantle below the Deep OCean Test ARray area, located ∼ 70 km north of the central section of the Gloria Fault, in the eastern North-Atlantic Ocean. The velocity models are inferred from the dispersion of surface waves recorded on ocean bottom seismometers. Dispersion measurements are obtained from the analysis of ambient seismic noise at short periods (< 14 s) and teleseismic surface waves at long periods (> 14 s) using the two-station method. The 1-D Vs model is inferred from the joint inversion of Rayleigh wave phase velocities and Love wave group and phase velocities. The 3-D tomographic model is obtained by inversion of 2-D Love wave group velocity maps as a function of depth, further constrained by the average of Love wave phase velocities obtained from ambient noise (4–9 s) and the average Rayleigh and Love wave phase velocities calculated from teleseismic data (14–44 s). The 1-D Vs model shows a sediment layer with a low velocity of 1.05 km s−1, similar to previous studies in the region. Below the sediments, we find an oceanic crust with velocities ranging from 3.3 to 4.5 km s−1. The model reaches an unusually high velocity of 4.9 km s−1 in a 20 km thick layer at depths between 16 and 36 km. We interpret this fast velocity layer as indicative of the presence of harzburgite, a residue of enhanced melting that might have been formed by the proximity between the Mid-Atlantic Ridge and the Azores mantle plume. At greater depths the velocity decreases, forming a low-velocity zone that reaches a minimum at ∼ 70 km depth, which we interpret as the maximum depth for the lithosphere–asthenosphere boundary. The 3-D model shows a structure that is mostly horizontally layered, with Vs isocontours at 3.5–4.5 km s−1 highlighting oscillations of the crustal structure with wavelengths of ∼25–30 km. These oscillations may be due to changes in the rate of mantle upwelling and magma supply rate.

Pinzón, Juan I. (ORCID:0000000338078068)↗

A Bayesian Calibration Framework with Embedded Model Error for Model Diagnostics

We study the utility and performance of a Bayesian model error embedding construction in the context of molecular dynamics modeling of metallic alloys, where we embed model error terms in existing interatomic potential model parameters. To alleviate the computational burden of this approach, we propose a framework combining likelihood approximation and Gaussian process surrogates. Here we leverage sparse Gaussian process techniques to construct a hierarchy of increasingly accurate but more expensive surrogate models. This hierarchy is then exploited by multilevel Markov chain Monte Carlo methods to efficiently sample from the target posterior distribution. We illustrate the utility of this approach by calibrating an interatomic potential model for a family of gold-copper alloys. In particular, this case study highlights effective means for dealing with computational challenges with Bayesian model error embedding in large-scale physical models, and the utility of embedded model error for model diagnostics.

Bayesian inference↗

Bioenergy pathways within United States net-zero CO 2 emissions scenarios in the Energy Modeling Forum 37 study

The Energy Modeling Forum 37 study is organized around carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) mitigation scenarios reaching net-zero CO 2 emissions by 2050 in the United States. Here, this paper summarizes the potential contribution of bioenergy use in the electric power, transportation, industrial, and buildings sectors toward meeting that target based on model results. Thirteen modeling teams reported bioenergy consumption in the Reference and Net Zero scenarios. Consumption of bioenergy increased over time in the Reference scenario, from an average across models of 3.2 exajoules (EJ) in 2020 to 3.8 EJ in 2050. Average bioenergy consumption in 2050 increased further to 7.3 EJ in the Net Zero scenario. All scenarios that reach net-zero emissions required some form of carbon dioxide removal to offset emissions that are difficult to reduce. Carbon dioxide removal using bioenergy with CO 2 capture and storage (BECCS) varies widely across models, up to 1000 Mt CO 2 in 2050. Some models rely instead on direct air carbon capture and storage (DACCS), up to 2200 Mt CO 2 , and others use a combination of BECCS and DACCS. Model results show a strong inverse relationship between the amounts of BECCS and DACCS deployed. All modeling teams assumed a carbon sink from land use, land use change, and forestry, further offsetting a portion of emissions from fossil fuels and industry that are expensive to eliminate. Bioenergy consumption in 2050 decreased by an average of 1.5 EJ across eight models in a Net Zero+ scenario relative to the Net Zero scenario, due in part to a lower equilibrium carbon price resulting from optimistic cost assumptions for all energy technologies.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

High-resolution lithospheric structure of continental China from joint inversion of surface wave and gravity data

The lithospheric structure of continental China has been previously determined by seismic travel time tomography, surface wave tomography, and joint inversion of body wave and surface wave data. However, due to the inherent limitations of seismic data, the lithospheric structure of continental China is still not well resolved in the shallow part and in some regions where the station coverage is relatively sparse. In this study, we aim at improving the lithospheric structure by joint inversion of seismic surface wave data and satellite gravity data to take advantage of the uniform distribution and complementary strength of the gravity data. Here, the empirical relationship between velocity and density is used as a bridge for joint inversion of surface wave and gravity data. The joint inversion shear-wave velocity Vs (density) model, named as USTClitho1.0g, can fit both surface wave and gravity data well. This high-resolution Vs model can better fit the active airgun source seismic arrival times and better delineate some features in continental China, such as the velocity contrast across the north–south gravity lineament (NSGL), the lithosphere thinning in eastern China, the crustal footprint of the Hainan mantle plume, the likely magma chamber beneath volcanos in northeast China, the middle-lower crust low velocity layer beneath the Tibetan plateau, and the tearing of subducted Indian mantle lithosphere. Our joint inversion Vs model can provide a reference model for geosciences in continental China and surrounding areas.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Towards inverse microstructure-centered materials design using generative phase-field modeling and deep variational autoencoders

The field of Integrated Computational Materials Engineering (ICME) combines a broad range of methods to study materials’ responses over a spectrum of length scales. A relatively unexplored aspect of microstructure-sensitive materials design is uncertainty propagation and quantification (UP/UQ) of materials’ microstructure, as well as establishing process-structure–property (PSP) relationships for inverse material design. In this study, an efficient UP technique built on the idea of changing probability measures and a deep generative unsupervised representative machine learning method for microstructure-based design of thermal conductivity of materials is proposed. Probability measures are used to represent microstructure space, and Wasserstein metrics are used to test the efficiency of the UP method. By using deep Variational AutoEncoder (VAE), we identify the correlations between the material/process parameters and the thermal conductivity of heterogeneous dual-phase microstructures. Through high-throughput screening, UP, and the deep-generative VAE method, PSP relationships that are too complex can be revealed by exploiting the materials’ design space with an emphasis on microstructures. As a last point, we demonstrate generative machine learning serves as a useful tool for inverse microstructure-centered materials design, and we demonstrate this by examining the inverse design of thermal conductivity in nano-structured materials. Here, the results reveal the effects of morphology, volume fraction, characteristic length scale, and the individual thermal diffusivity of phases on the thermal conductivity of dual-phase alloys. Our findings emphasize the advantages of high-throughput phase-field modeling and generative deep learning for linking PSP and inverse microstructure-centered materials design.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Inverse Design of Two-Dimensional Airfoils Using Conditional Generative Models and Surrogate Log-Likelihoods

Abstract This paper shows how to use conditional generative models in two-dimensional (2D) airfoil optimization to probabilistically predict good initialization points within the vicinity of the optima given the input boundary conditions, thus warm starting and accelerating further optimization. We accommodate the possibility of multiple optimal designs corresponding to the same input boundary condition and take this inversion ambiguity into account when designing our prediction framework. To this end, we first employ the conditional formulation of our previous work BézierGAN–Conditional BézierGAN (CBGAN)—as a baseline, then introduce its sibling conditional entropic BézierGAN (CEBGAN), which is based on optimal transport regularized with entropy. Compared with CBGAN, CEBGAN overcomes mode collapse plaguing conventional GANs, improves the average lift-drag (Cl/Cd) efficiency of airfoil predictions from 80.8% of the optimal value to 95.8%, and meanwhile accelerates the training process by 30.7%. Furthermore, we investigate the unique ability of CEBGAN to produce a log-likelihood lower bound that may help select generated samples of higher performance (e.g., aerodynamic performance). In addition, we provide insights into the performance differences between these two models with low-dimensional toy problems and visualizations. These results and the probabilistic formulation of this inverse problem justify the extension of our GAN-based inverse design paradigm to other inverse design problems or broader inverse problems.

Engineering↗

Sensitivity of modelled passive margin stratigraphy to variations in sea level, sediment supply and subsidence

Abstract We produced a 10 Myr synthetic stratigraphic section using a forward stratigraphic model that generates marine deltaic stratigraphy over geological timescales. We recursively fit the model using a Bayesian inversion algorithm to test: (1) if it could be accurately reconstructed; (2) if the parameters used to create it could be recovered; and (3) the sensitivity of the model output to given model parameters and the attendant physical processes. The original synthetic stratigraphic section was produced with cyclical sea‐level variations of 40 and 30 m with 2.4 and 10 Myr periods respectively. Sediment was also supplied cyclically, in 2.4 and 10 Myr cycles with amplitudes of 30 and 80 tons/100 kyr, respectively, varying from a mean of 232 tons/100 kyr. Parameter values were sampled to fit the model using a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm, resulting in a ±5 m (1σ) variation between the experimental output and the original. Sea level varied by ±7 m (1σ) within the posterior distribution of parameters. As a result, both the 10 Myr and 2.4 Myr sea‐level cycles could be extracted from the original output. The variation in sediment supply was approximately ±38 tons/100 kyr (1σ) and, as a result, only the larger long‐term supply variations could be accurately recovered in refitting the model. The variation in thermal, flexural and total subsidence across those parameter sets is less than ±10 m (1σ). The original section experienced 150 m of total subsidence at the depocentre. Our results demonstrate the distinct and interpretable imprint of sea level and subsidence on continental margin stratigraphy can be quantified. Moreover, we conclude that sea‐level change produces a defined effect on the geometries of stratigraphic architecture, and that techniques applied for the purpose of delineating sea‐level variation from continental margin strata have a well‐founded conceptual basis.

Schmelz, William J.↗

NEURAL NETWORK FOR COHERENT DIFFRACTION IMAGE INVERSION

A deep neural network model plus automatic differentiation is developed for retrieving phase information from 3D coherent diffraction images. The model is implemented using Tensorflow and the training dataset is generated using physics-based atomistic simulations. Custom codes are written to handle the resampling of diffraction images to oversampling ratios appropriate for the neural network model.

CHAN, HENRY↗

Carbide-Modified Pd on ZrO2 as Active Phase for CO2-Reforming of Methane—A Model Phase Boundary Approach

Starting from subsurface Zr0-doped “inverse” Pd and bulk-intermetallic Pd0Zr0 model catalyst precursors, we investigated the dry reforming reaction of methane (DRM) using synchrotron-based near ambient pressure in-situ X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (NAP-XPS), in-situ X-ray diffraction and catalytic testing in an ultrahigh-vacuum-compatible recirculating batch reactor cell. Both intermetallic precursors develop a Pd0–ZrO2 phase boundary under realistic DRM conditions, whereby the oxidative segregation of ZrO2 from bulk intermetallic PdxZry leads to a highly active composite layer of carbide-modified Pd0 metal nanoparticles in contact with tetragonal ZrO2. This active state exhibits reaction rates exceeding those of a conventional supported Pd–ZrO2 reference catalyst and its high activity is unambiguously linked to the fast conversion of the highly reactive carbidic/dissolved C-species inside Pd0 toward CO at the Pd/ZrO2 phase boundary, which serves the role of providing efficient CO2 activation sites. In contrast, the near-surface intermetallic precursor decomposes toward ZrO2 islands at the surface of a quasi-infinite Pd0 metal bulk. Strongly delayed Pd carbide accumulation and thus carbon resegregation under reaction conditions leads to a much less active interfacial ZrO2–Pd0 state.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗