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Electricity Baseline 2020 Background Data and Log File

The ElectricityLCI v2 Python package (https://github.com/USEPA/ElectricityLCI/tree/v2.0) was used to generate the 2020 electricity baseline: a regionalized life cycle inventory model of U.S. electricity generation, consumption, and distribution using standardized facility and generation data. ElectricityLCI implements a local data store for downloading and accessing public data on an individual's computer. The data store follows the folder definition provided by USEPA's esupy Python package (https://github.com/USEPA/esupy), which utilizes the appdirs Python dependency (https://pypi.org/project/appdirs/). An overview of the ElectricityLCI data stores may be found on the README (https://github.com/USEPA/ElectricityLCI/blob/v2.0/README.md#data-store). This submission includes the background data used to generate the 2020 electricity baseline inventory. Each zip archive stores the source files as found in their data stores. Sub-folders in each of the data stores are archived separately. For example, stewi.zip contains the JSON files, while stewi.facility.zip is the 'facility' sub-folder of stewi data store that stores the parquet files. To reproduce the data store, extract each zip file and drag-and-drop sub-folders in to their appropriate root folders to recreate the data stores, then copy the root folders to your data store folder (as returned by running the following on the command line: python -c "import appdirs; print(appdirs.user_data_dir())"). The main five data stores include: 'electricitylci', 'facilitymatcher', 'fedelemflowlist', 'stewi', and 'stewicombo'. The log file generated by the 2020 model run is also included, which contains the statements at the DEBUG level and above.

Electricity; LCA; LCI; Life Cycle; data inventory↗

Electricity Baseline 2020

The Electricity Baseline (2020) is a regionalized life cycle inventory model of U.S. electricity generation, consumption, and distribution using standardized facility and generation data and was created using the ElectricityLCI v2 Python package (https://github.com/USEPA/ElectricityLCI/tree/v2.0). The Python package used the "ELCI_2020" model configuration to set the facility and generation data sources and years that were used to create this life cycle inventory, which were taken from publicly accessible datasets and automatically curated into a local data store. An archive of the data stores used in this model is available online: https://doi.org/10.18141/2569605. This model is presented in GreenDelta's openLCA schema v2 JSON-LD format (https://greendelta.github.io/olca-schema/).

Electricity; LCA; LCI; data inventory↗

Sensitivity of Optical Satellites to Estimate Windthrow Tree-Mortality in a Central Amazon Forest

Windthrow (i.e., trees broken and uprooted by wind) is a major natural disturbance in Amazon forests. Images from medium-resolution optical satellites combined with extensive field data have allowed researchers to assess patterns of windthrow tree-mortality and to monitor forest recovery over decades of succession in different regions. Although satellites with high spatial-resolution have become available in the last decade, they have not yet been employed for the quantification of windthrow tree-mortality. Here, we address how increasing the spatial resolution of satellites affects plot-to-landscape estimates of windthrow tree-mortality. We combined forest inventory data with Landsat 8 (30 m pixel), Sentinel 2 (10 m), and WorldView 2 (2 m) imagery over an old-growth forest in the Central Amazon that was disturbed by a single windthrow event in November 2015. Remote sensing estimates of windthrow tree-mortality were produced from Spectral Mixture Analysis and evaluated with forest inventory data (i.e., ground true) by using Generalized Linear Models. Field measured windthrow tree-mortality (3 transects and 30 subplots) crossing the entire disturbance gradient was 26.9 ± 11.1% (mean ± 95% CI). Although the three satellites produced reliable and statistically similar estimates (from 26.5% to 30.3%, p < 0.001), Landsat 8 had the most accurate results and efficiently captured field-observed variations in windthrow tree-mortality across the entire gradient of disturbance (Sentinel 2 and WorldView 2 produced the second and third best results, respectively). As expected, mean-associated uncertainties decreased systematically with increasing spatial resolution (i.e., from Landsat 8 to Sentinel 2 and WorldView 2). However, the overall quality of model fits showed the opposite pattern. We suggest that this reflects the influence of a relatively minor disturbance, such as defoliation and crown damage, and the fast growth of natural regeneration, which were not measured in the field nor can be captured by coarser resolution imagery. Our results validate the reliability of Landsat imagery for assessing plot-to-landscape patterns of windthrow tree-mortality in dense and heterogeneous tropical forests. Satellites with high spatial resolution can improve estimates of windthrow severity by allowing the quantification of crown damage and mortality of lower canopy and understory trees. However, this requires the validation of remote sensing metrics using field data at compatible scales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Life Cycle Assessment for Closed-Loop Pumped Hydropower Energy Storage in the United States

The federal government has initiated an aggressive set of policies to achieve a net-zero carbon emission goal for the electricity sector by 2050. As a result, rapid growth in deployment of renewable energy technologies is expected. Most commercially mature technologies are temporally variable and do not provide grid inertia, while renewable technologies with high projected deployment have intermittent generation methods. Energy storage technologies are needed to both dispatch power on-demand and help provide the needed grid inertia. Pumped storage hydro (PSH) is a well-established technology that has gained renewed interest in recent years offering energy-balancing, grid stability, control of electrical network frequency, and large-scale storage capacity. For widespread adoption of PSH, more information is needed regarding its current life cycle environmental impacts. The objective of this study is to perform a full life cycle assessment (LCA) of new closed-loop PSH in the U.S. The functional unit for this study is 1 kWh of electrical power delivered to the grid and the base case project lifetime is 80 years. The life cycle inventory for this project accounts for all material and energy flows associated with the green-field construction, operation, maintenance, and decommissioning of a closed-loop PSH plant in the U.S. Collected data represents a range of potential PSH specifications and geographic locations coming from all prospective closed-loop PSH installations in the U.S. with data available. In addition, existing PSH installations are used to provide assumptions for inventory inputs. Results presented will include the global warming potential (GWP IPCC 100a) and Energy Return on Investment (EROI) from our base case (average PSH installation) as well as from scenario analyses and model sensitivity. These results will be compared to the impacts from existing PSH sites and alternate storage technologies. Methods align with the assumptions and guidelines put in place by previous PSH LCAs to ensure an accurate comparison with the results from this report.

ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY,HYDRO ENERGY↗

REGAL International Program: Analysis of experimental data for depletion code validation

The Rod-Extremity and Gadolinia AnaLysis (REGAL) Program is a joint international effort to expand the nuclide inventory experimental data for irradiated nuclear fuel, with a specific focus on addressing two challenging needs associated with the characterization of modern, high duty, nuclear fuel. The first challenge is filling the gaps in experimental nuclide inventory data for gadolinia (UO 2 –Gd 2 O 3 ) fuel rods. The huge absorption cross sections of Gd-155 and Gd-157 in the Gd dopant in these rods lead to atypical spatial self-shielding patterns and have an impact on the neutronic environment within the fuel assembly compared to regular UO 2 fuel rods. Additionally, the second challenge is investigating the impact of burnup gradients at rod extremities on fuel composition and neutron leakage, to provide relevant experimental data for assessing computational capabilities to model such impact. A benchmark has been defined as a first step in the development of best-estimate models in the preliminary phase of the experimental data evaluation. Comparison of experimental results obtained in Phase I of the program for two measured pressurized water reactor (PWR) samples, one UO 2 and one UO 2 –Gd 2 O 3 sample, with calculated results obtained with different computational tools based on the defined benchmark are presented and discussed.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Estimation of the time for steam generator trip due to cyber intrusions

The time required to trip a pressurized water reactor (PWR) by inserting malicious signals into its steam generator (SG) control system has been studied using the Generic PWR (GPWR) Simulator. A semi-analytical model is developed to approximately reproduce the simulator response and understand the dynamics of the control unit. A series of two proportional-integral controllers determines control action according to preset constants, the readings from the feedwater level sensor, and those from feedwater and steam flowrate transmitters. It is observed that the most important factor that determines whether a trip will occur is how much additional water is added to or withheld from the SG over time compared to normal operating conditions. In order to determine the effects of control action on the SG, changes in mass inventory are considered. This approach models the SG water level as a function of mass inventory and has a backward temporal memory. A Python interface is developed for the GPWR framework to automatically simulate different spoofing scenarios and post-process the related data. We observe that the trip times predominantly depend on flow mismatch and/or level errors. Controller parameters, including the integral time and gain constants, either speed up or slow down the rate of progression to a trip setpoint but do not cause a trip by themselves. The reactor can trip on a high-level signal when the reading crosses above 78%, increased from its reference level of 57%, or a low-level reading when it is below 25%. The present results show roughly how long the operators would have to respond to an attack, given a specific set of spoofing signals within the issue space analyzed. Furthermore, we have generated a simple surface by fitting a combination of exponential functions to the data obtained from the GPWR Simulator. In general, trips on a low level have been observed to occur faster than those on a high level.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Multiphysics modeling of a critical dual-purpose canister in a saturated geological repository

Dual purpose dry cask storage canisters for spent nuclear fuel are designed for storage and transportation, but are not licensed for permanent disposal in a geological repository. If dual purpose canisters were to be used to dispose of spent nuclear fuel in a geological repository, they would be expected to eventually breach and be flooded with groundwater, and it is shown that some fraction of these canisters will achieve criticality. In order to evaluate the consequences of canisters going critical in a repository, an initial capability has been developed for estimating the quasi-static power level of a critical canister using loosely coupled multiphysics simulations. The low power level in a critical canister enables coupling through precomputed physics proxies. This calculated power level is then used to compute the change in the critical canister’s isotopic inventory as a function of time. Three as-loaded canisters are evaluated and two were found to have power levels below 4 kW, with a modest effect on the radiological inventory over time. This effort also shows that although some DPCs will have extremely peaked power shapes, the relatively low power and long-time scales result in relatively homogenized thermohydraulic properties in the water within the DPC.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

New capabilities for rapid depletion analysis of pebble-bed reactors in SCALE

The SCALE Leap-In for Cores at Equilibrium (SLICE) method leverages capabilities available in the SCALE modeling and simulation suite to facilitate rapid estimation of equilibrium core inventories for flowing-pebble reactor systems in support of a variety of fuel cycle applications. New capabilities that compliment the SLICE method have been developed for the ORIGAMI interface to ORIGEN in SCALE to facilitate rapid depletion calculations for flowing-pebble systems. New features include a more generalized and flexible means of specifying interpolation dimensions, the ability to evaluate pebbles moving through user-defined “axial zones” in each of the pebble’s multiple passes through the core, and the treatment of differential velocities across radial channels (representing both pebble-to-pebble and wall-to-pebble friction effects). ORIGAMI thus provides an efficient user interface to define a pebble’s path and irradiation histories of its multiple passes through the core to calculate the pebble’s time-dependent inventories, which can be useful in various applications domains such as safeguards, criticality safety, and disposal analyses. The consistency of new ORIGAMI approach was verified against the solution obtained using the SLICE method with ORIGEN-ARP, showing excellent agreement.

Skutnik, Steven E. [Oak Ridge National Laboratory ↗

Historic and modern nuclear graphite impurities: Pathways to improved waste strategies

Graphite has been used in large volumes as a structural material and neutron moderator since the earliest days of nuclear fission. However, no international consensus exists on the disposal of irradiated graphite, leaving much of the historic radioactive graphite inventory in interim vault or silo storage. With several new graphite-moderated reactors planned or under construction, the issue of graphite waste management is becoming increasingly urgent. This paper reviews and quantifies impurities in both historic and modern nuclear graphite, with emphasis on nitrogen—responsible for much of the 14 C inventory—and chlorine, which plays a critical role in repository performance and design. Modern graphites, benefitting from stringent quality-control measures developed for non-nuclear industries, meet or exceed the ASTM Ultra-High Purity nuclear standards, even without halide purification. Both chlorine and nitrogen concentrations have declined over time. For chlorine, identified as a key impurity influencing U.S. waste repository design, we propose a target of 0.1 appm in as-fabricated billets as a reasonable benchmark. Nitrogen sources are traced throughout the graphite production process, with surface and bulk concentrations characterized for all materials studied. Modern graphites commonly exhibit nitrogen levels below 5 appm, with values approaching 1 appm achievable. Using such reduced-nitrogen grades is critical to keeping graphite-induced radioactivity below the greater-than-Class-C waste threshold, thereby avoiding disposal cost penalties of nearly an order of magnitude.

Chlorine↗

Gallium isotopic constraints for the origin of the Earth-Moon system

Comparatively heavy isotopic compositions of moderately volatile elements (MVE) in lunar rocks have been advocated to reflect the loss of light isotopes during devolatilization processes from the Moon. In this study we present new gallium (Ga) isotope data for lunar highland rocks, with a focus on the Ferroan Anorthosite Suite (FAS). These are commonly thought to be direct crystallization products from the late lunar magma ocean (LMO) and should contain the majority of the Ga inventory of the Moon. As such, FAS rocks are crucial for identifying the processes that drove Ga isotope fractionation as well as for inferring the Ga isotopic composition of the bulk Moon. Our data reveal that FAS samples have a range in δ 71 Ga from -0.27 to 0.22‰ and are generally isotopically light in Ga compared to other lunar lithologies, but straddle values typical of terrestrial rocks. Although Ga is defined as an MVE, these Ga isotope variations do not correspond with concentrations of more volatile elements, indicating that Ga isotope variations in the FAS are not primarily controlled by devolatilization processes. Instead, the Ga isotopic compositions of bulk FAS rocks broadly correlate with the composition of plagioclase, with the calcium content of plagioclase decreasing as Ga becomes isotopically heavier. This suggests that fractionation of Ga isotopes in FAS rocks was caused by the preferential incorporation of isotopically light Ga into plagioclase during the later solidification stages of the LMO. The progressive crystallization and extraction of plagioclase forces the residual melt towards increasingly heavier Ga isotope ratios, corroborating similar conclusions derived from correlations between δ 71 and Eu* in the mare basalt suite. Using Ga isotope partitioning calculations, we demonstrate that an isotope fractionation coefficient between plagioclase and coexisting melt of -0.3 to -0.4‰ could explain the observed range of δ 71 values in FAS, mare basalt suite rocks, and KREEP. These calculations allow for a first order estimate of the Ga isotopic composition of the bulk silicate Moon prior to plagioclase fractionation and suggest it was close to the composition of the bulk silicate Earth. This would imply that the Moon did not lose a substantial fraction of its Ga inventory during accretion, consistent with new constraints from Rb-Sr isotope systematics that indicate the Moon's volatile deficit was primarily inherited from Theia. In conjunction with the overlap in non-mass-dependent isotope ratios, these collective observations could be reconciled if Theia and the proto-Earth formed in similar regions of the inner Solar System that were already volatile-depleted.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Effects of short-term over-discharge cycling on the performance of commercial 21,700 lithium-ion cells and the identification of degradation modes

In this paper, short-term over-discharge cycling was performed on commercially available 21,700 lithium-ion cells to investigate its effects on cell performance; the degradation modes were also identified and analyzed in detail using both in-situ and ex-situ methods. Results show that observable capacity loss occurs when the cell is over-discharged to 112.5% depth of discharge. Moreover, the negative impact of the depth of discharge on cell performance (or cell aging) is more serious than the number of cycles, and continuous over-discharge cycling will accumulate such impact. The loss of Li inventory related to the decomposition and reformation of solid electrolyte interphase film is an important cause of the irreversible capacity loss/degradation of Li-ion cells during over-discharge cycling testing. Furthermore, the dissolution of copper current collector can greatly reduce the mechanical stability of the anode, and further, the deposition of Cu, the exfoliation and the cracking of active material particles can influence the transfer of ions and lead to the loss of Li inventory and the loss of active material within Li-ion cells. Additionally, when the depth of discharge exceeds 108.3%, deposition of Cu is observed on the ceramic-covered side of separators.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Impact of molten salt inflow on the temperature distribution in thermal energy storage tanks at startup for central receiver concentrating solar power plants

Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) systems with molten salt thermal energy storage (TES) tanks are one of the most promising, renewable-based energy conversion technologies for larger-scale power generation. The TES tank is one of the most critical components in CSP plants due to its high-temperature operation (up to 565 °C), daily thermal cycling, and intermittent solar radiation conditions. The plant startup is one of the most challenging operation conditions that could lead to damaging thermal gradients due to low salt inventory levels. In this study an analytical model for the sparger ring was developed and integrated with a detailed computational fluid dynamics model of a commercial-scaled molten salt tank. The integrated model allows an accurate representation of the tank operation to evaluate the effect of molten salt inflow on the mixing process. The tank filling process during plant startup was analyzed considering sparger rings with variations in design features, including inlet orifice configurations, number of orifices, direction of the inlets, and orifice diameter. The results demonstrated that higher temperature gradients are obtained in the tank floor during the plant startup. A sparger ring configuration with a predetermined orifice inlet inclination (30°, 45° and 60°) leads to significant temperature differences in the floor, between 57 °C and 62 °C, but better homogeneity in the temperature of the salt inventory. Lower salt inflow velocities result in a more homogeneous floor temperature, with maximum temperature differences under 38 °C. The sparger ring configuration with 52 orifices of 1-in. diameter and vertical flow showed better homogeneity in the temperature differences as a function of the salt level and lower temperature gradients in the tank floor. Because large temperature gradients in the tank's floor have been identified as one of the main factors contributing to tank failures, assessing various sparger ring design features is fundamental to determining proper inflow conditions that lead to low-temperature gradients and reducing failure susceptibility.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Impact of grassland fire dynamics on particulate emission factors

Understanding particulate emission factors in grassland fires is critical for improving air quality assessments and refining emissions inventories. This study explores the dynamic and heterogeneous nature of fire processes and their influence on particulate emissions. Traditional emission factor inventories often rely on static values, overlooking the spatially and temporally variable dynamics of fire behavior. Through field experiments conducted at Konza Prairie Biological Station measuring emissions with uncrewed aerial vehicles, and computational modeling using HIGRAD/FIRETEC, this research highlights the dependency of emission production on localized fire dynamics, including ignition patterns, fuel properties, and atmospheric conditions. The results demonstrate a need for fire dynamic considerations to accurately capture emissions variability.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Range-wide population assessments for subalpine fir indicate widespread disturbance-driven decline

Subalpine forests in western North America are threatened by rapid climate change, increased activity by endemic and exotic insects and diseases, and changing wildfire regimes. The interactive effects of these stressors have resulted in pronounced population declines in many subalpine tree species; however, a systematic assessment of the status and trends of subalpine forests is lacking. Subalpine fir (Abies lasiocarpa) is a widespread species across the western United States, with documented population declines in many parts of its distribution. Here we use subalpine fir as an initial leverage point to build a more complete understanding of subalpine forest baseline conditions and responses to environmental change. Specifically, we leverage the USDA Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) database to (1) ask how subalpine fir populations are changing across the species’ distribution in the western US, (2) assess the drivers of recent subalpine fir population trends, and (3) explore whether those changes imply generalized species-wide and/or system-wide decline. We found that subalpine fir abundance and basal area are declining concurrently across ~ 62% of the species’ distribution, and increasing across ~ 19%. Range-wide, we estimated 25.02 ± 2.74 % subalpine fir mortality between 2000 and 2009 and 2010–2019 FIA inventory periods, with higher mortality concentrated in the eastern Oregon Cascades, central Idaho, and parts of southern Colorado. High regeneration density did not predict positive population trajectories, which were instead associated with higher rates of adult recruitment. While the importance of different mortality agents varied substantially between ecoregions, 83.4% of total range-wide mortality was related to fire or biological disturbance. Declining subalpine fir basal area coincided with declines in the basal area of other co-occurring tree species in 39% of subalpine forest area, and with increases in conspecific basal area in 22% of forest area. Fire disturbance was the single largest cause of subalpine fir mortality; however, even where subalpine fir fire mortality was high, mortality among other species was primarily caused by insects. In conclusion, our results suggest that subalpine fir declines across large portions of the western United States are driven by forest disturbance, and that declines in subalpine fir populations may be indicative of negative change in subalpine forest systems broadly.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Effects of charging rates on LiNi 0.6 Mn 0.2 Co 0.2 O 2 (NMC622)/graphite Li-ion cells

Enabling fast charging capability of lithium-ion battery is of great importance to widespread adoption of electric vehicles. Increasing the charging rates from state-of-the-art 2C (30 min) to 6C (10 min) requires deep understanding on the cell aging mechanism. Here, 400 mAh pouch cells are cycled at 1C, 4C and 6C charging rates with 1C discharging rate. Capacity fading, cathode structural changes, Li inventory loss, electrolyte composition changes and Li plating on graphite electrodes are thoroughly studied by various characterization techniques. The rapid capacity fading in cells at 6C charging rate is mainly due to Li inventory loss from cathode structure and metallic Li plating on graphite electrode at higher charging rate. Post-mortem analysis also revealed changes in electrolyte such as increased salt molarity and transesterification during fast charging.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Redistribution of radionuclides in irradiated AGR-1 UCO TRISO fuel after 1800 °C safety testing

Release of radionuclides from intact tristructural-isotropic (TRISO) coated particle fuel at normal and accident conditions is a primary metric of fuel performance. The distribution of fission products and actinides in the TRISO layers of individual particles provides insight on radionuclide transport and release behavior and was determined using scanning electron microscopy analysis. Particles were isolated from an irradiated fuel compact (AGR-1 Compact 4-4-2) and analyzed as-irradiated or after individual particle safety-testing at 1800 °C for 650 h. Particles were selected for comparison based on their remaining 110mAg fission product inventory. These comparisons corroborated the observation that the 110m Ag inventory is a marker for relative irradiation temperature based on observed radionuclide distribution in the SiC layer. The comparison also indicated that the in-pile behavior influences the fission product and actinide species interactions with the TRISO layers during high temperature exposure after irradiation. The analysis confirms both palladium and uranium diffusion, as well as other species, are active in the UCO TRISO fuel system at 1800 °C and that palladium transport is active at lower temperatures relative to uranium. While diffusion across the SiC layer was observed, the intact nature of the SiC layer after the 1800 °C, 650-h exposure indicates the SiC layer maintained its functionality as a fission product barrier by mitigating release of radionuclides at beyond accident margin temperatures.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Microstructure of irradiated AGR TRISO particle buffer layers as measured by X-ray computed tomography

Shrinkage of the initially low-density buffer layer in tristructural isotropic (TRISO) coated fuel particles during irradiation is a well-known phenomenon with potential implications for fission product and actinide transport, as well as potential pyrocarbon fracture that in some cases has been observed to impact particle performance. During post-irradiation examination, the buffer layer's structure is commonly determined using 2D microscopy of a particle cross section or a series of particle cross sections at staggered depths. Although these methods provide a general idea of the irradiated buffer microstructure, they do not provide a full picture of the TRISO coating microstructure. By contrast, x-ray computed tomography (XCT) provides full 3D imaging of the TRISO particle. Particles from various compacts irradiated for the Advanced Gas Reactor Fuel Development and Qualification Program were imaged using XCT. Some of these particles were selected because of abnormal fission product inventories (e.g., low 137 Cs), whereas others were randomly selected from the center of the fission product inventory distribution. Qualitative and quantitative analysis techniques were applied to the randomly selected particles as representatives of typical TRISO behavior to study the post-irradiation structure of the buffer layer. These results showed that, while separation of the buffer and inner pyrolytic carbon layers was a common behavior during the radiation-induced shrinkage of the buffer, a portion of the original buffer/inner pyrolytic carbon interface remained intact throughout irradiation in nearly all cases. Furthermore, these results also indicated clear trends in the degree of buffer densification with irradiation temperature and fluence.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗