Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “integrated modelling”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 361 records · Page 20
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2017

Incorporating variability in simulations of seasonally forced phenology using integral projection models

Phenology models are becoming increasingly important tools to accurately predict how climate change will impact the life histories of organisms. We propose a class of integral projection phenology models derived from stochastic individual-based models of insect development and demography. Our derivation, which is based on the rate-summation concept, produces integral projection models that capture the effect of phenotypic rate variability on insect phenology, but which are typically more computationally frugal than equivalent individual-based phenology models. We demonstrate our approach using a temperature-dependent model of the demography of the mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins), an insect that kills mature pine trees. This work illustrates how a wide range of stochastic phenology models can be reformulated as integral projection models. Due to their computational efficiency, these integral projection models are suitable for deployment in large-scale simulations, such as studies of altered pest distributions under climate change.

Goodsman, Devin W.↗
DOE OSTI2014

Post-2020 climate agreements in the major economies assessed in the light of global models

Integrated assessment models can help in quantifying the implications of international climate agreements and regional climate action. This paper reviews scenario results from model intercomparison projects to explore different possible outcomes of post-2020 climate negotiations, recently announced pledges and their relation to the 2°C target. We provide key information for all the major economies, such as the year of emission peaking, regional carbon budgets and emissions allowances. We highlight the distributional consequences of climate policies, and discuss the role of carbon markets for financing clean energy investments, and achieving efficiency and equity.

Tavoni, Massimo↗
DOE OSTI2019

Learning-Based Inversion-Free Model-Data Integration to Advance Ecosystem Model Prediction

Ecosystem model prediction is important for understanding ecosystem responses to climate change and for management support. Model prediction and quantification of predictive uncertainty of ecosystems have long been investigated. The traditional workflow, which calibrates models to match observations and then uses the calibrated models for predictions, relies heavily on inverse modeling to constrain uncertain parameters in complex forward models. This inversion-based prediction approach is infeasible for complex models with heterogeneous parameter uncertainties and incapable of rapid integration of streaming and multiple sources of data because of the difficulty and computational cost in the model inversion, which is typically ill-posed and can require hundreds of thousands of expensive forward simulations to be performed iteratively. We propose to circumvent inverse modeling by precomputing an ensemble of unconstrained forward simulations and then using machine learning (ML) methods to learn the statistical relationship between simulated observation and prediction quantities. Once the ML model has learned the relationship, it can be used to make predictions of future system behavior with uncertainty quantification based on observations. The proposed learningbased inversion-free model prediction (LIMP) framework is computationally efficient which only requires a few thousands of fully parallelizable forward simulations. Additionally, LIMP can continually update predictions based on streaming observations from multiple locations and sources without necessarily requiring extra model simulations. In this study, we apply LIMP to a regional terrestrial ecosystem model with 47 parameters for testing, refining, and evaluating the approach. We demonstrate that LIMP can be used for efficient model prediction, rapid data assimilation, and cost-effective experimental design for improving robust predictive understanding of ecosystems.

Lu, Dan↗
NASA NTRS2008

Thermal Model Development for Ares I-X

Thermal analysis for the Ares I-X vehicle has involved extensive thermal model integration, since thermal models of vehicle elements came from several different NASA and industry organizations. Many valuable lessons were learned in terms of model integration and validation. Modeling practices such as submodel, analysis group and symbol naming were standardized to facilitate the later model integration. Upfront coordination of coordinate systems, timelines, units, symbols and case scenarios was very helpful in minimizing integration rework. A process for model integration was developed that included pre-integration runs and basic checks of both models, and a step-by-step process to efficiently integrate one model into another. Extensive use of model logic was used to create scenarios and timelines for avionics and air flow activation. Efficient methods of model restart between case scenarios were developed. Standardization of software version and even compiler version between organizations was found to be essential. An automated method for applying aeroheating to the full integrated vehicle model, including submodels developed by other organizations, was developed.

Amundsen, Ruth M.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Integration of an Evidence Base into a Probabilistic Risk Assessment Model. The Integrated Medical Model Database: An Organized Evidence Base for Assessing In-Flight Crew Health Risk and System Design

This slide presentation reviews the Integrated Medical Model (IMM) database, which is an organized evidence base for assessing in-flight crew health risk. The database is a relational database accessible to many people. The database quantifies the model inputs by a ranking based on the highest value of the data as Level of Evidence (LOE) and the quality of evidence (QOE) score that provides an assessment of the evidence base for each medical condition. The IMM evidence base has already been able to provide invaluable information for designers, and for other uses.

Saile, Lynn↗
DOE OSTI2018

A Methodology and Implementation of Automated Emissions Harmonization for Use in Integrated Assessment Models

Emissions harmonization refers to the process used to match greenhouse gas (GHG) and air pollutant results from Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) against a common source of historical emissions. To date, harmonization has been performed separately by individual modeling teams. For the hand-over of emission data for the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) to climate model groups, a new automated approach based on commonly agreed upon algorithms was developed. This work describes the novel methodology for determining such harmonization methods and an open-source Python software library implementing the methodology. Results are shown for two example scenarios (with and without climate policy cases) using the MESSAGE-GLOBIOM IAM that satisfactorily harmonize over 96% of the total emissions trajectories while having a negligible eect on key long-term climate indicators. This new capability enhances the comparability across dierent models, increases transparency and robustness of results, and allows other teams to easily participate in intercomparison exercises by using the same, openly available harmonization mechanism.

intergrated assessment, climate change, Harmonizat↗
NASA NTRS2011

Sleep Disruption Medical Intervention Forecasting (SDMIF) Module for the Integrated Medical Model

The NASA Integrated Medical Model (IMM) assesses the risk, including likelihood and impact of occurrence, of all credible in-flight medical conditions. Fatigue due to sleep disruption is a condition that could lead to operational errors, potentially resulting in loss of mission or crew. Pharmacological consumables are mitigation strategies used to manage the risks associated with sleep deficits. The likelihood of medical intervention due to sleep disruption was estimated with a well validated sleep model and a Monte Carlo computer simulation in an effort to optimize the quantity of consumables. METHODS: The key components of the model are the mission parameter program, the calculation of sleep intensity and the diagnosis and decision module. The mission parameter program was used to create simulated daily sleep/wake schedules for an ISS increment. The hypothetical schedules included critical events such as dockings and extravehicular activities and included actual sleep time and sleep quality. The schedules were used as inputs to the Sleep, Activity, Fatigue and Task Effectiveness (SAFTE) Model (IBR Inc., Baltimore MD), which calculated sleep intensity. Sleep data from an ISS study was used to relate calculated sleep intensity to the probability of sleep medication use, using a generalized linear model for binomial regression. A human yes/no decision process using a binomial random number was also factored into sleep medication use probability. RESULTS: These probability calculations were repeated 5000 times resulting in an estimate of the most likely amount of sleep aids used during an ISS mission and a 95% confidence interval. CONCLUSIONS: These results were transferred to the parent IMM for further weighting and integration with other medical conditions, to help inform operational decisions. This model is a potential planning tool for ensuring adequate sleep during sleep disrupted periods of a mission.

Lewandowski, Beth↗
DOE OSTI2013

Integrated system modeling analysis of a cryogenic multi-cell deflecting-mode cavity resonator

A deflecting mode cavity is the integral element for six-dimensional phase-space beam control in bunch compressors and emittance transformers at high energy beam test facilities. RF performance of a high-Q device is, however, highly sensitive to operational conditions, in particular in a cryo-cooling environment. Using analytic calculations and RF simulations, we examined cavity parameters and deflecting characteristics of TM{sub 110,π} mode of a 5 cell resonator in a liquid nitrogen cryostat, which has long been used at the Fermilab A0 Photoinjector (A0PI). The sensitivity analysis indicated that the cavity could lose 30%–40% of deflecting force due to defective input power coupling accompanying non-uniform field distribution across the cells with 40 ∼ 50 MeV electron beam and 70–80 kW klystron power. Vacuum-cryomodules of the 5 cell cavity are planned to be installed at the Fermilab Advanced Superconducting Test Accelerator facility. Comprehensive modeling analysis integrated with multi-physics simulation tools showed that RF loading of 1 ms can cause a ∼5 K maximum temperature increase, corresponding to a ∼4.3 μm/ms deformation and a 1.32 MHz/K maximum frequency shift. The integrated system modeling analysis will improve design process of a high-Q cavity with more accurate prediction of cryogenic RF performance under a high power pulse operation.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
NASA NTRS2015

Integrated Medical Model Overview

The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) Project represents one aspect of NASA's Human Research Program (HRP) to quantitatively assess medical risks to astronauts for existing operational missions as well as missions associated with future exploration and commercial space flight ventures. The IMM takes a probabilistic approach to assessing the likelihood and specific outcomes of one hundred medical conditions within the envelope of accepted space flight standards of care over a selectable range of mission capabilities. A specially developed Integrated Medical Evidence Database (iMED) maintains evidence-based, organizational knowledge across a variety of data sources. Since becoming operational in 2011, version 3.0 of the IMM, the supporting iMED, and the expertise of the IMM project team have contributed to a wide range of decision and informational processes for the space medical and human research community. This presentation provides an overview of the IMM conceptual architecture and range of application through examples of actual space flight community questions posed to the IMM project.

Spae Adaptation Syndrome↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Multicomponent Reactive Transport Model for Integrated Surface‐Subsurface Hydrology Problems

Abstract Despite the widespread use of integrated hydrology models in a variety of applications, consideration of multicomponent reactive transport is still not common. The implementation of these processes requires coupling transport at the surface‐subsurface interface and efficient solution of the non‐linear geochemical model that is consistent with the integrated hydrology solution. The Advanced Terrestrial Simulator provides a flexible multiphysics framework that facilitated this process. In this work, the integrated reactive transport process kernel (PK) was weakly coupled to the integrated hydrology PK. In turn, integrated transport and reactions were coupled using an operator splitting approach. This splitting enabled an explicit solution of the integrated transport problem, including a novel algorithm to calculate exchange fluxes across the surface‐subsurface interface and a point‐by‐point solution of the geochemical problem. Geochemical capabilities were added using well‐established external codes, but rather than using a custom interface to each, a generic interface was used that clearly specifies the variables and operations used by the chemistry PK. The implementation is demonstrated with two example simulations: transport of a tracer in a soil column as it saturates over time and water ponds on the surface and reactive transport in a hillslope driven by successive wet‐dry cycles that result in infiltration, runoff and exfiltration processes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

Effects of spatially distributed sectoral water management on the redistribution of water resources in an integrated water model

Realistic representations of sectoral water withdrawals and consumptive demands and their allocation to surface and groundwater sources are important for improving modeling of the integrated water cycle. To inform future model development, in this work we enhance the representation of water management in a regional Earth system (ES) model with a spatially distributed allocation of sectoral water demands simulated by a regional integrated assessment (IA) model to surface and groundwater systems. The integrated modeling framework (IA-ES) is evaluated by analyzing the simulated regulated flow and sectoral supply deficit in major hydrologic regions of the conterminous U.S, which differ from ES studies looking at water storage variations. Decreases in historical supply deficit are used as metrics to evaluate IA-ES model improvement in representating the complex sectoral human activities for assessing future adaptation and mitigation strategies. We also assess the spatial changes in both regulated flow and unmet demands, for irrigation and nonirrigation sectors, resulting from the individual and combined additions of groundwater and return flow modules. Results show that groundwater use has a pronounced regional and sectoral effect by reducing water supply deficit. The effects of sectoral return flow exhibit a clear east-west contrast in the hydrologic patterns, so the return flow component combined with the IA sectoral demands is a major driver for spatial redistribution of water resources and water deficits in the US. Our analysis highlights the need for spatially distributed sectoral representation of water management to capture the regional differences in interbasin redistribution of water resources and deficits.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2004

Integration of Dynamic Models in Range Operations

This work addresses the various model interactions in real-time to make an efficient internet based decision making tool for Shuttle launch. The decision making tool depends on the launch commit criteria coupled with physical models. Dynamic interaction between a wide variety of simulation applications and techniques, embedded algorithms, and data visualizations are needed to exploit the full potential of modeling and simulation. This paper also discusses in depth details of web based 3-D graphics and applications to range safety. The advantages of this dynamic model integration are secure accessibility and distribution of real time information to other NASA centers.

Bardina, Jorge↗
DOE OSTI2016

Balancing global water availability and use at basin scale in an integrated assessment model

Water is essential for the world’s food supply, for energy production, including bioenergy and hydroelectric power, and for power system cooling. Water is already scarce in many regions of the world and could present a critical constraint as society attempts simultaneously to mitigate climate forcing and adapt to climate change, and to provide for a larger and more prosperous human population. Numerous studies have pointed to growing pressures on the world’s scarce fresh water resources from population and economic growth, and climate change. This study goes further. We use the Global Change Assessment Model to analyze interactions between population, economic growth, energy, land and water resources simultaneously in a dynamically evolving system where competing claims on water resources from all claimants—energy, land, and economy—are reconciled with water resource availability—from renewable water, non-renewable groundwater sources and desalinated water—across 14 geopolitical regions, 151 agriculture-ecological zones, and 235 major river basins. We find that previous estimates of global water withdrawal projections are overestimated. Model simulations show that it is more economical in some basins to alter agricultural and energy activities rather than utilize non-renewable groundwater or desalinated water. This study highlights the importance of accounting for water as a binding factor in agriculture, energy and land use decisions in IAMs and implications for global responses to water scarcity, particularly in the trade of agricultural commodities and land-use decisions.

basin↗