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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 361 records · Page 20
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Leveraging System Dynamics to Predict the Commercialization Success of Emerging Energy Technologies: Lessons from Wind Energy

The United States urgently needs to tackle the climate crisis while enhancing energy security and resiliency. The complexity of the U.S. energy system, with its interconnected elements, makes predicting future states challenging, especially with the introduction of novel energy systems like wind, solar, clean hydrogen, and advanced nuclear technologies. Modern systems engineering methods and tools can provide deeper insights into these dynamics and future behaviors. This research aims to develop a comprehensive model that captures the main elements and behaviors of new energy technologies within the existing energy system. We hypothesized that the market uptake of novel energy systems is influenced by multiple diverse factors, such as technological learning, availability of resources, and economic incentives; examined the history of electricity generation using land-based wind technologies; and developed a system dynamics model to investigate the relationships between capacity growth and influencing factors, both internal and external. The developed model yielded outcomes that confirmed the hypothesized dynamics of wind energy system diffusion through a quantitative comparison of installed capacity and highlighted the significant influence of resource availability, federal incentives (production tax credits), and technological learning on capacity growth and cost reduction. This research aims to support informed decision-making for investments in novel energy systems and aid in developing effective policies for technology deployment.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Mutual Detectability: A Targeted SETI Strategy That Avoids the SETI Paradox

As our ability to undertake searches for extraterrestrial intelligence (SETI) grows, so does interest in the controversial endeavor of messaging extraterrestrial intelligence (METI). METI proponents point to the SETI Paradox—if all civilizations refrain from METI then SETI is futile. I introduce mutual detectability as a game-theoretic strategy to increase the success potential of targeted SETI. Mutual detectability comprises four laws that establish how SETI participants can engage each other based on mutual evidence of mutual existence. I argue that the party whom both SETI participants can judge to have better quality evidence, or common denominator information (CDI), has an onus to transmit to avoid the SETI Paradox. Transiting exoplanets within the Earth Transit Zone form a target subset that satisfies mutual detectability requirements. I identify the intrinsic time-integrated transit signal strength, which for Earth is 10{sup 3} L{sub ⊙} ppm hours yr{sup −1}, as suitable CDI. Civilizations on habitable-zone planets of radius R{sub p}/R{sub ⊕}≲(L{sub ∗}/L{sub ⊙}){sup −1/7} have superior CDI on us, and so under the mutual detectability framework have game-theory incentive (onus) to transmit. While the onus to transmit falls on us for habitable planets around L{sub *} > L{sub ⊙} stars, considerations of relative stellar frequency, main-sequence lifetime and planet occurrence rates mean that such systems are likely to be in a small minority. Surveys of the Earth Transit Zone for Earth-analog transiting planets around subsolar luminosity hosts would facilitate targeted SETI programs for civilizations who have game-theory incentive to transmit signals to us. A choice to remain silent, by not engaging in METI toward such systems, does not in this case fuel concerns of a SETI Paradox.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2013

Techno-Economic Analysis of BEV Service Providers Offering Battery Swapping Services: Preprint

Battery electric vehicles (BEVs) offer the potential to reduce both oil imports and greenhouse gas emissions, but high upfront costs, battery-limited vehicle range, and concern over high battery replacement costs may discourage potential buyers. A subscription model in which a service provider owns the battery and supplies access to battery swapping infrastructure could reduce upfront and replacement costs for batteries with a predictable monthly fee, while expanding BEV range. Assessing the costs and benefits of such a proposal are complicated by many factors, including customer drive patterns, the amount of required infrastructure, battery life, etc. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory has applied its Battery Ownership Model to compare the economics and utility of BEV battery swapping service plan options to more traditional direct ownership options. Our evaluation process followed four steps: (1) identifying drive patterns best suited to battery swapping service plans, (2) modeling service usage statistics for the selected drive patterns, (3) calculating the cost-of-service plan options, and (4) evaluating the economics of individual drivers under realistically priced service plans. A service plan option can be more cost-effective than direct ownership for drivers who wish to operate a BEV as their primary vehicle where alternative options for travel beyond the single-charge range are expensive, and a full-coverage-yet-cost-effective regional infrastructure network can be deployed. However, when assumed cost of gasoline, tax structure, and absence of purchase incentives are factored in, our calculations show the service plan BEV is rarely more cost-effective than direct ownership of a conventional vehicle.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2016

History v. Simulation: An Analysis of the Drivers of Alternative Energy Vehicle Sales

Simulations of the US light duty vehicle stock help policy makers, investors, and auto manufacturers make informed decisions to influence the future of the stock and its associated green house gas emissions. Such simulations require an underlying framework that captures the key elements of consumer purchasing decisions, which can be uncertain. This uncertainty in a simulation’s logic is usually convolved with uncertainty in the underlying assumptions about the futures of energy prices and technology innovation and availability. By comparing simulated alternative energy vehicle (AEV) sales to historical sales data, one can assess the simulation’s ability to capture the dynamics of consumer choice, independent of many of those underlying uncertainties, thereby determining the factors that most strongly impact sales. The market for diesel vehicles, hybrid electric vehicles, and to a lesser extent plug-in hybrid electric vehicles and all-electric vehicles, has now matured sufficiently to make such a study possible. In this work, we measure the results of the Sandia ParaChoice model under a variety of input assumptions against historical sales data. Here, we observe that (1) the underlying simulation logic is sound, capturing key drivers of consumer choice, (2) AEV model availability has a significant impact on sales, and (3) AEV consumers are very likely aware of purchasing incentives and factoring those incentives into their purchasing decisions.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
NASA NTRS1981

Market assessment of photovoltaic power systems for agricultural applications in Morocco

Results of a month-long study in Morocco aimed at assessing the market potential for stand-alone photovoltaic systems in agriculture and rural service applications are presented. The following applications, requiring less than 15 kW of power, are described: irrigation, cattle watering, refrigeration, crop processing, potable water and educational TV. Telecommunications and transportation signalling applications, descriptions of power and energy use profiles, assessments of business environment, government and private sector attitudes towards photovoltaics, and financing were also considered. The Moroccan market presents both advantages and disadvantages for American PV manufacturers. The principle advantages of the Moroccan market are: a limited grid, interest in and present use of PV in communications applications, attractive investment incentives, and a stated policy favoring American investment. Disadvantages include: lack of government incentives for PV use, general unfamiliarity with PV technology, high first cost of PV, a well-established market network for diesel generators, and difficulty with financing. The market for PV in Morocco (1981-1986), will be relatively small, about 340 kwp. The market for PV is likely to be more favorable in telecommunications, transport signalling and some rural services. The primary market appears to be in the public (i.e., government) rather than private sector, due to financial constraints and the high price of PV relative to conventional power sector.

Steingass, H.↗
NASA NTRS1984

Commercial space services

An overview of space service opportunities as identified by a Wyle Laboratories' research team is given. Through the use of a baseline space scenario, a variety of space hardware, services, and commercial activities are identified and related on a time-phased basis. A model is presented to relate the potential functions of government and the private sector in a commercialized space environment during the period 1984 to 2004. Barriers, incentives and key issues are likewise identified and addressed to aid in the implementation of private sector activities for spacerelated programs. Broader awareness, legislative actions, incentive development and benefit analyses are considered in the presentation. The time-phased plan provides a useful planning and management tool, allows broader communication, and supports overall space commercialization program assessment.

Christensen, D. L.↗
NASA NTRS1985

Motivational contracting in space programs - Government and industry prospectives

NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center has used incentive-free policies in contracting for Apollo's Saturn Launch vehicle hardware, as well as award-fee contracts for major development and early production programs in the case of the Space Shuttle Program. These programs have evolved to a point at which multiple incentive fees are useful in motivating cost reductions and assuring timely achievement of delivery requirements and flight mission goals. An examination is presently conducted of the relative success of these motivation-oriented techniques, drawing on the comments of both government and industry personnel.

Clough, D. R.↗
NASA NTRS1988

An examination of automation and robotics in the context of Space Station operations

A NASA-sponsored review of Space Station automation and robotics (A&R) applications from an operations and utilization perspective is presented. The goals of the A&R panel and this report are to identify major suggestions for advanced A&R operations application in Space Station as well as key technologies that have emerged or gained prominence since the completion of previous reports; to review and incorporate the range of possible Space Station A&R applications into a framework for evaluation of A&R opportunities; and to propose incentives for the government, work packages, and subcontractors to more aggressively identify, evaluate, and incorporate advanced A&R in Space Station Operations. The suggestions for A&R focused on narrow objectives using a conservative approach tuned to Space Station at IOC and limiting the Station's growth capabilities. A more aggressive stance is to identify functional needs over the Program's life, exploit and leverage available technology, and develop the key advanced technologies permitting effective use of A&R. The challenge is to systematically identify candidate functions to be automated, provide ways to create solutions resulting in savings or increased capabilities, and offer incentives that will promote the automation.

Criswell, David R.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Beyond Mechanism Design

The field of mechanism design is concerned with setting (incentives superimposed on) the utility functions of a group of players so as to induce desirable joint behavior of those players. It arose in the context of traditional equilibrium game theory applied to games involving human players. This has led it to have many implicit restrictions, which strongly limits its scope. In particular, it ignores many issues that are crucial for systems that are large (and therefore far off-equilibrium in general) and/or composed of non-human players (e.g., computer-based agents). This also means it has concentrated on issues that are often irrelevant in those broader domains (e.g., incentive compatibility). This paper illustrates these shortcomings by reviewing some of the recent theoretical work on the design of collectives, a body of work that constitutes a substantial broadening of mechanism design. It then presents computer experiments based on a recently suggested nanotechnology testbed that demonstrates the power of that extended version of mechanism design.

Wolpert, David H.↗
NASA NTRS2012

The Impact of Incentivizing the Use of Feedback on Learning and Performance in Educational Videogames

Educational videogames can be designed to provide instructional feedback responsive to specific actions. However, existing research indicates that students tend to ignore the feedback provided. That is, students often use ineffective help-seeking strategies. Research on the topic of help-seeking in learning environments have primarily focused on the role of cognitive factors, the nature of the help, or issues of timing and frequency. There is a noticeable gap in understanding how to motivate the use provided feedback. This study examined the relation between incentivizing the use of feedback and providing an explanation of the game's scoring rules on math learning in a pre-algebra videogame. A randomized-control design was used, comparing learning outcomes of students who received the incentive with those who did not. Results indicated that students given the incentive to use feedback had significantly higher normalized change scores on math items (d = .53), with stronger effects for students with low academic intrinsic motivation (d = .88 - 1.17).

Delacruz, Girlie C.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Exploring the Integration of Earth Observations to Support Community Management of a Protected Area in Guatemala

Central America faces increasing challenges of deforestation and habitat fragmentation with complex drivers. Protected areas are one response to these challenges, forming a continuous forest stand subject to national conservation systems and laws. As part of a novel shared-management model, both the community of Santa María Tzejá and the Protected Areas Council of Guatemala (CONAP in Spanish) co-manage Cerro Cantil, a protected area in the Ixcán department of northwestern Guatemala covering approximately 314 ha. The SERVIR program, a joint initiative between NASA and USAID, in partnership with leaders from Santa María Tzejá, began a pilot project to explore how the integration of satellite remote sensing can support forest and biodiversity monitoring and contribute to the community’s reporting requirements. To assess Cerro Cantil’s potential role to protect endemic species between three larger protected areas, we model least cost corridors between Cerro Cantil and Laguna Lachuá, Visi Cabá, and Montes Azules for Alouatta pigra (Black Howler Monkey). Additionally, we evaluate the potential contribution of a forestry-conservation incentives program (PROBOSQUE) to stem fragmentation and support biodiversity by assessing the forest area overlapping both the modeled corridors and plots belonging to families enrolled in PROBOSQUE. Results contribute to community understanding of the value of Cerro Cantil to protect local biodiversity as well as the interaction of a forestry incentive program and protected area designation.

Biodiversity↗
DOE OSTI2012

A Text Analysis Approach to Motivate Knowledge Sharing via Microsoft SharePoint

Creating incentives for knowledge workers to share their knowledge within an organization continues to be a challenging task. Strong, innate behaviors of the knowledge worker, such as self-preservation and self- advancement, are difficult to overcome, regardless of the level of knowledge. Many incentive policies simply focus on providing external pressure to promote knowledge sharing. This work describes a technical approach to motivate sharing. Utilizing text analysis and machine learning techniques to create an enhanced knowledge sharing experience, a prototype system was developed and tested at Oak Ridge National Laboratory that reduces the overhead cost of sharing while providing a quick, positive payoff for the knowledge worker. This work describes the implementation and experiences of using the prototype in a corporate production environment.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2014

Distributed Wind Diffusion Model Overview (Presentation)

Distributed wind market demand is driven by current and future wind price and performance, along with several non-price market factors like financing terms, retail electricity rates and rate structures, future wind incentives, and others. We developed a new distributed wind technology diffusion model for the contiguous United States that combines hourly wind speed data at 200m resolution with high resolution electricity load data for various consumer segments (e.g., residential, commercial, industrial), electricity rates and rate structures for utility service territories, incentive data, and high resolution tree cover. The model first calculates the economics of distributed wind at high spatial resolution for each market segment, and then uses a Bass diffusion framework to estimate the evolution of market demand over time. The model provides a fundamental new tool for characterizing how distributed wind market potential could be impacted by a range of future conditions, such as electricity price escalations, improvements in wind generator performance and installed cost, and new financing structures. This paper describes model methodology and presents sample results for distributed wind market potential in the contiguous U.S. through 2050.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2015

Overview of the Biomass Scenario Model

Biofuels are promoted in the United States through legislation, as one part of an overall strategy to lessen dependence on imported energy as well as to reduce the emissions of greenhouse gases (Office of the Biomass Program and Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, 2008). For example, the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 (EISA) mandates 36 billion gallons of renewable liquid transportation fuel in the U.S. marketplace by the year 2022 (U.S. Government, 2007). Meeting the volumetric targets has prompted an unprecedented increase in funding for biofuels research, much of it focused on producing ethanol and other fuel types from cellulosic feedstocks as well as additional biomass sources (such as oil seeds and algae feedstock). In order to help propel the biofuels industry, the U.S. government has enacted a variety of incentive programs (including subsidies, fixed capital investment grants, loan guarantees, vehicle choice credits, and corporate average fuel economy standards) -- the short-and long-term ramifications of which are not well understood. Efforts to better understand the impacts of incentive strategies can help policy makers to develop a policy suite which will foster industry development while reducing the financial risk associated with government support of the nascent biofuels industry.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2014

Lesson Learned from Technical and Economic Performance Assessment and Benefit Evaluation of CHP-FCS

Recent efforts and interest in combined heat and power (CHP) have increased with the momentum provided by the federal government support for penetration of CHP systems. Combined heat and power fuel cell systems (CHP-FCSs) provide consistent electrical power and utilize the heat normally wasted in power generation for useful heating or cooling with lower emissions compared to alternative sources. A recent study investigated the utilization of CHP-FCSs in the range of 5 to 50KWe in various commercial building types and geographic locations. Electricity, heating, and water heating demands were obtained from simulation of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) commercial reference building models for various building types. Utility rates, cost of equipment, and system efficiency were used to examine economic payback in different scenarios. As a new technology in the early stages of adoption, CHP-FCSs are more expensive than alternative technologies, and the high capital cost of the CHP-FCSs results in a longer payback period than is typically acceptable for all but early-adopter market segments. However, the installation of these units as on-site power generators also provide several other benefits that make them attractive to building owners and operators. The business case for CHP-FCSs can be made more financially attractive through the provision of government incentives and when installed to support strategic infrastructure, such as military installations or data centers. The results presented in this paper intend to provide policy makers with information to define more customized incentives and tax credits based on a sample of building types and geographic locations in order to attract more business investment in this new technology.

Makhmalbaf, Atefe↗
DOE OSTI2015

Convergence of Vehicle and Infrastructure Data for Traffic and Demand Management

The increasing availability of highly granular, vehicle trajectory data combined with ever increasing stores of roadway sensor data has provided unparalleled observability into the operation of our urban roadway networks. These data sources are quickly moving from research and prototype environments into full-scale commercial deployment and data offerings. The observability gained allows for increased control opportunities to enhance transportation mobility, safety and energy efficiency. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) is involved in three initiatives to leverage these data for positive outcomes: 1) In 2015 NREL, in cooperation with industry and university partners, was awarded an ARPA-E research grant to research a control architecture to incentivize individual travelers toward more sustainable travel behavior. Based on real-time data on the traveler's destination and state of the system, the traveler is presented with route and/or mode choices and offered incentives to accept sustainable alternatives over less-sustainable ones. The project tests the extent to which small incentives can influence, or tip the balance toward more sustainable travel behavior. 2) Although commercial sources of travel time and speed have emerged in recent years based on vehicle probe data, volume estimates continue to rely primarily on historical count data factored for the time of day, day of week, and season of year. Real-time volume flows would enable better tools, simulation in the loop, and ultimately more effective control outcomes. NREL in cooperation with the University of Maryland and industry traffic data providers (INRIX, HERE and TomTom), are attempting to accelerate the timeframe to a viable real-time vehicle volume data feed based on probe data. 3) Signal control on urban arterials for years has had to rely on models rather than measured data to assess performance. High-resolution controller data and low-cost re-identification data now allows for direct measurement of the quality of progression along a corridor. Though still requiring an investment in equipment and communications, these data sources are transforming traffic signal management to a data driven, performance management basis. Ever increasing availability of granular GPS trace data from automobiles may allow for assessment of traffic signal performance, allowing for signal optimization while minimizing the investment in additional sensors and communication infrastructure.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2016

Building America Case Study: Solar Water Heating in Multifamily Buildings, Greenfield, Massachusetts

Solar domestic hot water (SDHW) systems have been installed on buildings for decades, but because of relatively high costs they have not achieved significant market penetration in most of the country. As more buildings move towards zero net energy consumption, however, many designers and developers are looking more closely at SDHW. In multifamily buildings especially, SDHW may be more practical for several reasons: (1) When designing for zero net energy consumption, solar water heating may be part of the lowest cost approach to meet water heating loads. (2) Because of better scale, SDHW systems in multifamily buildings cost significantly less per dwelling than in single-family homes. (3) Many low-load buildings are moving away from fossil fuels entirely. SDHW savings are substantially greater when displacing electric resistance water heating. (4) In addition to federal tax incentives, some states have substantial financial incentives that dramatically reduce the costs (or increase the benefits) of SDHW systems in multifamily buildings. With support from the U.S. DOE Building America program, the Consortium for Advanced Residential Buildings (CARB) worked with a developer in western Massachusetts to evaluate a SDHW system on a 12-unit apartment building. Olive Street Development completed construction in spring of 2014, and CARB has been monitoring performance of the water heating systems since May 2014.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2016

Building America Case Study: Solar Water Heating in Multifamily Buildings

Solar domestic hot water (SDHW) systems have been installed on buildings for decades, but because of relatively high costs they have not achieved significant market penetration in most of the country. As more buildings move towards zero net energy consumption, however, many designers and developers are looking more closely at SDHW. In multifamily buildings especially, SDHW may be more practical for several reasons: (1) When designing for zero net energy consumption, solar water heating may be part of the lowest cost approach to meet water heating loads. (2.) Because of better scale, SDHW systems in multifamily buildings cost significantly less per dwelling than in single-family homes. (3) Many low-load buildings are moving away from fossil fuels entirely. SDHW savings are substantially greater when displacing electric resistance water heating. (4) In addition to federal tax incentives, some states have substantial financial incentives that dramatically reduce the costs (or increase the benefits) of SDHW systems in multifamily buildings. With support form the U.S. DOE Building America program, the Consortium for Advanced Residential Buildings (CARB) worked with a developer in western Massachusetts to evaluate a SDHW system on a 12-unit apartment building. Olive Street Development completed construction in spring of 2014, and CARB has been monitoring performance of the water heating systems since May 2014.

Building America↗